MacroBusiness
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UBS with the note:
Q2 CPI forecast revised up: to lift 0.9% q/q & 4.0% y/y, highest since the GFC
We sharply revise up our Q2 CPI forecast. Headline is now expected to lift by 0.9% q/q, above our long-held preliminary forecast of 0.6%, and further above the available consensus of ~0.3% (albeit ‘stale’ & likely higher now), and the RBA’s implied ~½%, even after Governor Lowe’s raised their forecast from the May SOMP which had only ~0.2%. This would differ from Q1 which was surprisingly well below consensus, but ~in-line with the RBA’s forecast. We also expect the y/y to spike to 4.0% (mkt: ~3.4%, RBA ~3½%) – as the record fall in Q2-20 drops out – the fastest pace since leading into the GFC peaked at 5.0% in Q3-08. This would be up very sharply from 1.1% in Q1.