h yes, saving a lot of trees. kaiser permanente. thrive. when we spend a billion dollars a day buying foreign oil... we don't just waste our money... we put our economy in the hands of hostile nations. we let big oil make record profits... while we struggle. and we lose new energy jobs, that go overseas. but we can take charge of our economy... by passing strong clean energy legislation. 1.7 million new american jobs. less carbon pollution. and a cleaner america for our children. it's time for clean american energy. the magic of the internet doesn't just happen. we're working every day, the inventors, the creators, the builders; spending tens of billions every year, competing and innovating to make it faster, smarter, and safer. it's a great collaboration-- those who use the internet to do amazing things and the companies that keep building and improving it. and we want everyone, everywhere in america to be part of it. we're broadband for america, your partners in this amazing journey. >> good morning. welcome to this week in defense news with vago muradian. some say robert gates is the best general ever. we will talk to him. plus, what are the hottest topics at military trade show that starts tomorrow. we will hear from the man who is putting together the largest trade shows. first, the debate over afghanistan continues. top officials met this week to discuss it and we called for more troops to train afghan forces. there needs to be a light at the end of the tunnel. what is the administration's next step and what does the winning strategy in afghanistan look like? we have john nagel and one of america's leading strategists. he was instrumental in how the military fights in iraq and helps the counter insurgency field manual. >> good to be here. >> what constitutes a good plan in afghanistan? >> the administration is trying to answer that question. they have gone back to the principles and they are trying to debate with the counter insurgency strategy or a saled down counterterrorism -- scaled down counterterrorism strategy that focuses on capturing or killing the taliban. they are weighing those. henry kissenger is always saying there is a third option. is there one here? >> i'm not sure there is. it looks like that will happen regardless. in either case. there really is not a third stool to fall on. we will increase our commitment to troops and resources to build an afghan state that can ultimately stand on its own or we will pull back from the mission and focus on killing or capturing terrorists. there is no third way. >> are there 40,000 available troops to shift to afghanistan from u.s. reservoirs right now? >> my sense is probably not. evenn if as the general says. i don't think the american army can provide 20,000 over the course of 2010. >> the marine corps? >> army and marine. probably not much more than 25,000. i don't think afghanistan can absorb more than 20,000 or 25,000 troops. i see those troops divided with more trainers and advisors for the afghan army and police. another two or three brigades to conduct active insurgencies in kandahar. i think it is very much the same was fallujah was before we cleared that out in 2004. >> right. there is a fear expressed by some that training the afghan forces and equipping them with the devices to make them effective is setting up a dangerous setting. is that a legitimate concern? >> it is a concern, but we can minimize that by steering them in the right direction. >> when we are looking at the withdraw from iraq, the general was up on the hill this week and talking about accelerating the drawdown plan. how fast can you drawdown given there is such an up surge in violence over the last summer? >> there has been an increase in violence. it is still comparatively low by iraqi standards. it is not strategic violence. it is not inciting civil war. there are no signs that will happen again. there are still kurdish and arab tensions. that has shifted north. there are ways to minimize the chances that it will escalate into a broader conflict. i think the general will be able to drawdown a little faster than the current projections show. assuming the elections come off well in january and a new government is seated soon afterwards. >> one of the criticisms that has been associated with the surge is the united states has bought allegiance. there has been success in the awakening to build confidence and to move the ball along that a piece of this is that folks have been bought off. how legitimate of a criticism is that? the u.s. has been buying off regional leaders. >> the u.s. certainly paid a number of sunni tribal leaders who were insurgency to switch sides to fight on our side. that is a time honored military tradition. those salaries have shifted to the iraqi government. they are paying them on a regular basis. >> right. >> i actually there there is an important lesson there for the campaign in afghanistan. there are ways for us to do similar things with some of the taliban insurgents. theproblemm is the sunni/arab tribes. >> is there not a danger that once the payments stop that the forces will turn against you and become a significant threat? >> there is that danger. my assessment is the payments will have to continue for years still to come. i could see those payments slowly bringing some of the taliban -- economic insurgents on side to fight with the afghan government against some of their brother tribes. and incorporating those tribal groups and fractions into the afghan security forces, which will have to grow and then five years from now, may have to shrink or perhaps bangladesh or pakistan, where the troops 10 years from now could be providing security on u.n. missions because instability is a growth business. it will not go away. >> that is a good catch phrase. speaking of a growth business. one question of the ausa show which is starting tomorrow is looking at the future. does the army need to be lighter or heavier? what does the u.s. army need to address the challenges? >> a decade ago, the general had the insight correct that the army was a bar bell. we had a lot of light forces that were mobile. limited tactical mobility and limited fire power. we had tactical mobility and lots of fire power, but nothing in the middle. he created the vision that was the stryker brigades. among the successful units. >> everybody wants them. >> everybody wants stryker brigades. we will build less of a bar bell and more of an army that can spread across the entire spectrum of conflict. we are taking some risk, i think, on the high end in the army. we are able to do that with the extraordinary overmatched ability with the air force and navy on the high end. we will fight better -- the wars we are fighting with the stryker. >> thank you. is bob gates the best secretary in history? that is coming up next on this week in defense news. because of one word, imagination and reality have merged. because of one word, a new generation-- a fifth generation-- of fighter aircraft has been born. because of one word, america's air dominance for the next forty years is assured. that one word... is how. by putting an end to paper medical records, we have ushered health into the digital age. saving lives, sometimes when seconds count. managing chronic conditions. making amazing new discoveries. and, oh yes, saving a lot of trees. kaiser permanente. thrive. >> after three years on the job, some analysts are calling robert gates the best in history. others however say gates is a bureaucrat and is setting the u.s. on a course to not fight major wars. jim thomas is the director of research at budget assessments. he reviewed some of gates' assessments. welcome to the show. >> thanks. good to be here. >> some say he is the best defense secretary ever. any sense from a historical perspective? >> secretary gates is doing a very good job. i think the jury is still out. i think he is planning on sticking around longer. i think that will be a question for historians. he is off to an excellent start. >> let me go to more specifically, you did a long haul series of every area of the air force -- the u.s. military from weapons to marines and special operations. you looked at it and made a series of deep defense policy recommendations. it is very interesting idea policies. how does gates stack up to the recommendations you made? >> in our strategy for the long- haul series, we laid out recommendations for structure and programatics. the decision he announced in april of this year, they tacked up well across the board. -- they stacked up well across the board. he is doing that. we called for a number of program changes related to our naval ships relating to the dg- 1000. >> it did not hurt that the guy doing that study for you is the number two guy in the u.s. navy? >> there were also a lot of other participants who had been thinking about this and brought something to the deliberations for sure. across the board, i think they stack up well. where we will take differences where we had a difference of view, it is looking at the balance of short and long-range strike. this is now an issue that the secretary and his senior leadership are addressing in the q dr. >> also on the nuclear front, the question is whether or not an investment of nuclear weapons or something you have been endorsing? >> that is right. there is a debate within the administration right now. i think secretary gates has made clear he supports moving ahead with modernization program for any clear forces. i think the view and my view is that is something we need to be looking at. right now, it appears we are the only nuclear power that is not modernizing. >> let's move over to the q ueue. they don't want to -- to the queue. they don't want to realize that. it this process fostering that healthy debate or having the opposite effect? people say there needs to be the healthy debate. >> i'm not sure it is sealed. there is always a goldilocks problem in those reviews. you can get 1,000 flowers bloom, but you may not get a focused result. that is always something that each secretary struggles with. i think that the team has done a good job on outreach to allies. i hope this continues. at the same time, good strategies made by a small group of people, it is not a committee effort. >> from that perspective, they have it right. they take the inputs from the services and they sit down and figure out what they want to do and what they need to do. >> that is right. at the same time, you have to continue the consul station proper -- consultation processes. working with the congressional leadership and working with the defense industry and focus on the outside to make sure that we are also thinking about issues like our industrial base. >> that is something the administration has talked about. the importance. what do you expect to come out of that? >> well, you know, the one thing i guess at the top of the list i'm looking for is where are we going in terms of the strategy? the secretary, i think, laid out a good national defense strategy last fall. followed up with the foreign affairs piece early this year. he -- earlier this year. he hit a couple of things. it points us to taking a more direct approach in our national security policy. working by and with and through our partners around the world. international partners as well as home with the defense and civil authorities. how we work directly and indirectly of other department was state and local authorities to shore up our defenses here at home. i will work to see how that strategy is articulate the in the qdr and put the meat on it and align the strategy. >> thank you. coming up next, the preview of the largest military trade show in the united states. >> the association of the united states army's annual conference and trade show is one of the tops in the defense calendar. the army leadership convenes in washington to discuss the future of the force as more than 400 companies display their wares. show the has gotten bigger each year as the focus has shifted to war-time needs. here to tell us what is hot at this show is robert thompson. he is vice president at ausa. welcome to the program. >> thank you for having me. >> so, there once was a time when ausa unveiled big announcements. this year, the focus is -- that hasn't been the focus of years past. the organization has been family and family support focus. will this be as news worthy as years past? >> i think it will. the news worthiness of the content of the event is what is happening to the army and the nation itself. you have a nation at war. at war for eight years. the army has the heavyweight carrier on the ground. has been involved in it. exposed to a lot of challenges. what you will see, i think, at this show is a discussion of how the army intends to go forward given the realities of the economy and realities of the war and the realities of the internal challenges that the army has. >> the grueling deployment schedule. there was some that were saying when you don't have the major strategic announcements, it undermines the value of the show. how do you respond this. >> the value of the show is not a big-ticket announcement, but the number of things that happen in the show. whether it is the 12 different forum events or a special presentation by general david petraeus. whether it is the volunteers. you mentioned there will be a number of family members who are meeting from forces command and other commands. they will be there. you have a very multifaceted event. there is new news in every one of those categories. whether you are talking the army itself or industry developments or so forth. >> this is the largest expo by a long shot for the army. how do you describe the mission? >> our mission in the association of the united states army is to develop a quality platform on to which the army and defense industry and elected officials or representatives can come and exchange information and ideas and initiatives and challenges and what can be made better. it is big in the sense that 32,000 plus people were there last year. we expect more this year. we have grown by 2,000 people attending each year for the last two years. it is big in that sense. it is big in this we have completely filled the bottom floor of the exhibit hall. that is 251,000 square feet. >> that is huge. it is certainly a far cry from at the wardman park towers. a more confined space. what will be the hottest topics? every show has hot topics in it. what is the hot topic? >> you will see a discussion about the way the army relates to the challenges of the war and the challenges in the overall defense budget. you will hear a lot of discussion about where the army is on the development on the combat ground vehicle. you will hear the army talk about the challenges of having a resilient force going forward with the stress on soldiers and families. you will hear them talk about that. you will hear industry talk about how they can meet the needs of the army across a wide variety. >> you expect to be bigger in the future? >> yes. by a long shot. >> thank you. looking forward to seeing you at the show next week. coming up in my notebook, were the marines should continue the amfibious assault vehicles. because of one word, imagination and reality have merged. because of one word, a new generation-- a fifth generation-- of fighter aircraft has been born. because of one word, america's air dominance for the next forty years is assured. that one word... is how. when we switched the tv from cable to fios? tv looks like new. much better. awesome. i wrote 'dark magic'... actually, it's the 100% fiber optics that makes the tv look new. i was curious why we're listening to customers? call the verizon center oh. boy. for customers with disabilities seems dumb... at 800-974-6006 tty/v (announcer) unlike cable, fios uses 100% fiber optics for the best picture quality, period. and you can get $150 back when you order today. >> along the many issues the defense review will determine is if the marine corps will maintain the water assault vehicles. it is a question for the marines and navy. without it, the equipment needed to land on beaches cannot be justified. that can save billions for a cash strapped pentagon. the marines have not had a landing since 1950. america has not dropped an atom bomb since then either. the ability to land massive forces on beaches provides ability to help the marines provide important missions. water assault vehicles are important for humanitarian operations and emergency evacuations. the threat of water assault vehicles tied up 10 iraqi divisions guarding the coastline of kuwait. the marines are right. keeping water assault vehicles is a vital tool that has taken decades to forge. thank you for watching us. i'm vago muradian. you can e-mail me at defensenews.com. tune in next week for the annual meeting in washington. until then, have a great week. ( piano music playing ) by putting an end to paper medical records, we have ushered health into the digital age. saving lives, sometimes when seconds count. managing chronic conditions. making amazing new discoveries. and, oh yes, saving a lot of trees. kaiser permanente. thrive.