Money propping up stocks, or maybe the sellers at last overwhelm the buyers. Including the prc. But either way, starting ugly. Meanwhile, oil after being 2 yesterday, falling back down to 30, was flirting with 29, insanity. Plus, with the Federal Reserve meeting on the horizon tomorrow, felt like it was another horrible session on its way. Yeah, 4 00 a. M. , etched in stone wed be down at least threequarters of a percent and the futures traders seemed to have their hearts set on appealing all the gains from late last week. I wanted to go back, but thats not how you play in the playoffs. Next thing you know, oil climbs back to 39. 21. Nobody thought that was in the cards, why . I could say ive given up trying to find logical explanations for the oil move. Forgive me, though, for going back to oil giant and the expiration for budgets are coming so fast supply and demand year. Plus, despite a story about the decline in chinese gasoline demand, we always seem to forget decline is a wrong word for china, its deceleration, not an absolute decline. I like what we heard last week, pleasantly surprised yesterday when halliburton said the same thing, competitor. Dont get these behemoths to agree. Remember, shareholders would like to hear the opposite, actually, but its tough to imagine oil plummeting through the mid 20s, frankly, because you have to believe actual buyers, think big fuel users like the airlines, cruise ships, will lock in oil at ultra low prices, which they must acknowledge might be a windfall and might not last. However, companies that want to remove the variable costs from the Balance Sheets and take advantage of the decline by buying it in the futures market. Its not just drivers that now, we know that in this crazy town market theres a ridiculous disconnect where all the restaurants and retailers are the first stocks to levitate when oil and, therefore, gasoline goes higher. What can i say . Happened again today, panera, mcdonalds, foot locker, meryl lynch jumped a couple, deckers, lululemon, up even best buy and bed, bath, and beyond, all jumped to the tune of the customers nemesis, the price of oil. Thats how this incredible stupid, miserable market works. The one thing we wanted to hear was quality earnings from International Companies that eluded us, just plain old good, great companies. We got them. First, proctor and gamble put up good numbers, organic growth up nicely, i was anticipating a decline. Then they circled back to kimberlyclark, which reported a good number yesterday and got killed for it. Gained back half its losses. Two more surprises, they were beauties, 3m and j j, growth criticized of late, last quarter brought out sellers in both. One quarter does not a stock make, but you have to be impressed with how much better thats the operation, than we thought. Given how beaten both stocks were, no wonder they zoomed ahead 7. 21 and 4. 78 respectively. Thats a good showing. Does that mean were back, so to speak . Does it mean tomorrow has to be another good day . Wait a sec, first we have to deal with apple. Company reported pretty much what everyone is looking for, bulls and bears, coincidentally. Earnings and iphone sales were what people were estimating, the stock was selling off in after hours. My take, heres a news flash, trade it, because Nothing Shocking came out tonight and we are going to get an iphone 7 upgrade cycle later in the year. Those have been terrific catalysts for buyers. In the meantime, apples ridiculous 216 billion, up 5 from last quarter and 21 from a year ago gives them plenty of chances to buy back stocks or even a new revenue stream like a harman, tim, that ones on the house. Then tomorrow Oil Inventories at 10 30. Theyve been a house of pain every time theyve come out and inventories build and build and build. I think well get another bad one. Oil trades down later today, indicating again the glut is back. Given fuel is still pumping at a rate roughly similar to last year thanks to huge fields in the gulf of mexico coming on, dont expect anything good for oil. I think that these rallies include our allperfect opportunities to sell fossil fuel stocks. As much as oil is not going to routine, i cant see it going either, and thats really about as low as oil can go before the independent oils in north america start to get crushed. Wow. And, of course, at 2 00 p. M. Tomorrow we have the news that can stop any rally in its tracks, the Federal Reserve speaks about its policy decision. Heres what we need to pay close attention to, the last big fed head that spoke, he panned a chillingly positive outlook ten days ago, thats keeping with the four rate hikes Stanley Fischer seems to favor, if not savor. I think janet yellen is different, i think she sees the pain, not just on wall street, i think she sees the pain on main street with actual workers. I think she senses the layoffs since the last rate hike. She sees the spike in jobless claims. She doesnt want to be the fed chief that sends us back into recession with massive layoffs and close businesses, people out of work. Thats not her. Rate hike scenario, while crushing the auto and housing cycles, but does she say we need a couple of hikes this year . Or will yellen say now that weve raised rates and seen Commodity Prices decline, which may not be as temporary as we thought, weve got to go back to being data dependent. Wait until we see more inflation before tightening begins again. In this case, we have a rally, lets build one. No matter, heres the bottom line. This week weve had a host of Companies Report some pretty darn good numbers. If their stocks get rocked, remember youre getting them at prices that amount to real bargains and if you get a green light from the fed, still plenty to buy in retail, restaurants, and Even Technology as declines have become horrendous and the feds to blame for whatever china and oil havent taken away already. Id like to go to frank in new york to start. Frank. Caller how are you, jim . Thank you for taking my call, jim. Thank you. Caller my question is, i have some disney, you know, and the last few weeks it hasnt been doing well. Nothings been doing well, but today i heard it was downgraded. So i dont know, is that time to move on to Something Else . There are lots of people who like to trade disney. They are looking at it statically, saying bob eiger cant fix whatever decline there is in espn, therefore, the companys had it. Im taking a longer term, 180year view with disney, which its got great characters, got great management, got great franchises, so i think this weakness is ephemeral and well look back and not see a difference between 96 and 86 and well wish that we had bought. Miles in louisiana. Miles. Caller professor cramer, big booyah from new orleans. Boy, my daughter going to have too good a time down there, have to check on her. Whats going on . Decline of volatile oil, would it make to invest in strong brand recognition, low evaluation, and most importantly, a strong dividend . Miles, what we do in new york, youre in louisiana, where ill be headed in a couple weeks. What we do is we step back and say they are throwing away all the good Apparel Companies like a Columbia Sportswear or like a b. F. , lets trade up and buy the better ones. I think that thats the better way if you believe in apparel than to go to guess. Susan in new york, susan . Caller hey, jim, how are you . Thanks for having me on. Booyah. Booyah. Caller so, i bought gopro at 48 on its descent from 90. It did go back up to 60, but now 10, 11, approximately. Its Just Announced they are teaming up with periscope and twitter, and im just wondering snow, is gopro a stock, do i buy more . I dont want you to sell its got some value here. Id do periscope, you know, pretty much every night, but its not a needle mover and wont be a needle mover, im afraid, for gopro either. Im sorry you got hurt on that one, but i dont care where its come from, where its going to. Maybe it bounces and you can lighten up. This is a hot week in earnings. Some of these solid stocks get bought, i think youre getting them at a bargain. Theres still plenty to buy. Last week off the charts, guess what, she was right. Whats her call for this week . Im checking in. Then the major rail players are down double digits over the past six months. Could the decline be to pick up speed . Ill tell you if its time to abort and, smith wesson is up about 70 over the past year. Time to buy . Youre not going to want to miss my take. Money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. In just one click, even keep your toilet clean and fresh. Introducing lysol click gel. Click it in to enjoy clean freshness with every flush. Lysol. Start healthing. Yeah, click seems like weve hit a road block. That reminds me. Anyone have occasional constipation, diarrhea. Gas, bloating . Yes one Phillips Colon Health probiotic cap each day helps defend against occasional digestive issues. With three types of good bacteria. Live the regular life. Phillips. Here on mad money we always give credit where its due, and right now that means acknowledging the charts, technician that runs the website, also my colleague at realmoney. Com, she totally nailed this current rebound. For those of you that dont remember, on last weeks off the charts segment we checked in to see where she thought the s p 500 might be headed, and while her longterm view is far from bullish, she made a very contrary call at the time. She made a big point. She expected the averages to change the trajectory, albeit temporarily, some time last week. In other words, last tuesday she totally nailed this rally. So where do you see the market headed next now that she did that so right . First off, she urges you not to mistake the current strength versus sustainable advance. Take a look at this longterm monthly chart of the s p 500. Ever since the s p peaked at 2,134 last may, right smack in the middle in the range where she told us to expect the top, wow, shes been saying were vulnerable to a deep decline. Borodens methodologies is about looking at past swings, then learning them through the prism of fibonacci ratios and the key ones are 23. 6 , 38. 2 , 50 , 61. 8 , or 100 . So identify levels where stock or index might be likely to change trajectory. Change in trajectory. Those ratios were actually discovered by the medieval godfather of mathematics, leonardo fibonacci. They show up everywhere, flowers bloom, pine cones, snail shells, i kid you not. For some crazy reason they also show up on the charts. They really do. Shes been so right since we started the show, and while i cant come up with a compelling explanation of why that happens, it does. Thats how she nailed the peak in the s p 500 last year at 21. 34, right smack in the middle. That level, wed become vulnerable and thats exactly what happened. Unfortunately, the fibonacci fibonacci queen can see this going a lot lower for a lot longer before we get a real sustainable bottom. Boroden is not saying well absolutely get a positive decline, but the odds point to at least a bit more downsize in the coming months, so the longterm prediction is still pain. You can see thats what pain looks like, this gap is pain, okay . But how about the more intermediate term, which a lot of you people care about. Take a look at this chart of the s p 500. Remember in last weeks off the charts boroden told us fibonacci methodology suggested we get a shortterm bounce at some point between january 19th and january 22nd. Sure enough, market made a nasty new low on january 20th. Since then weve had few nice up days, just went down. Now that the bounce has arrived, what can we expect from the s p boroden believes that the january 20th low when the s p sank to 812, you can see how low it went, that was the intraday low, she now thinks that is an important level, but she doesnt believe it represents a genuine bottom and shes watching for another downside failure in the distant future. Why is that . In part because we made that low after the s p broke down not one, but two key support levels, meaning we bounced, but wasnt off a sustainable floor. See, we hit, then we bounce. She doesnt think its sustainable. So lets look at the next chart. It gives us a reading on when the market may make its next move. Now, i know it looks confusing, were going to go through it. Just as important, the same fibonacci timing that allowed at the beginning of the rebound last week is also telling her the current rally could be pretty short lived. The great thing about the way her system works is she can apply those fibonacci ratios to both moves, she can do it to the x axis, the time, okay, right now boroden sees a minor grouping of the fibonacci sequels, but more important she points out theres a cluster of the timing cycles coming due next week between tuesday, february 2nd, and friday, february 5th. This is what we have to watch. What exactly does it mean . When we hit that cluster next week, it also happens to coincide with another very important data point. The last two sustained rallies weve seen during this period where the market generally trended lower, lasted for ten and 11 trading days respectively. If you start counting from the low we made last wednesday, then this current bounce will hit the 11day mark by next thursday, february 4th. Got that . 11day mark, february 4th. Exactly when borodens tells us the market decline is going to expected the pain to begin again next week because she finds it hard to believe a rally can last more than 11 trading days during a correction. This is how long theyve been lasting. This is the rally, this is the rally. She thinks thats going to hold true again. So thats time. What about price . Take a gander at this next daily chart of the s p 500. She says she cant point out where the next breakdown is going to occur, but she thinks its important to point out we have a serial resistance running from 1911, 1915, to down here, right, and running from 1978 to 2,000. In other words, anywhere from 1 to 5 upside before this current bounce runs out of steam, so thats probably worth playing. But given the s p is currently trading below both its 50day and 200day moving average, she expects its going to run out of steam and you need to be ready for things to turn negative next week. Thats pretty fast. Here, the charts interpreted suggests the current bounce is likely to be short lived. Either stop there or stop there. And given that she totally nailed where and when this bounce would happen, her view is after todays big rally, theres no absolutely no room for complacency. In fact, i would say given she thinks this could happen, caution. Caution should be the watch word. Okay, much more mad money ahead. Im taking a closer look at the most Important Group in this market, the rails. See if they can put your portfolio in the position to be the engine, not the caboose. Then smith wesson stocks surged, seems the best is yet to come, right . Wrong. Ill explain. And can caterpillar dig itself out of the mess its in . Why dont you stick with cramer . Olay regenerist renews from within, plumping surface cells without the need for fillers your concert tee might show your age. Your skin never will. Olay regenerist. Olay. Ageless. Working on my feet all day gave me pain here. In my lower back but now, i step on this machine and get my number which matches my dr. Scholls custom fit orthotic inserts. Now i get immediate relief from my foot pain. My lower back pain. Find a machine at drscholls. Com lets get these dayquil liquid gels and go. But these liquid gels are new. Mucinex fast max. Its the same difference. This one is max strength and fights mucus. The only cold and flu liquid gel thats maxstrength and fights mucus. Lets end this. Degree motionsense is the worlds first deodorant activated by movement. As you move, fragrance capsules burst to release extra freshness all day. Motionsense. Protection to keep you moving. All aboard six months ago i told you that the Railroad Stocks were about to go off the rails. Since then the rails have gotten slammed Norfolk Southern declining 19 . Pacific 17 . Nearly 30 . Decline to all. Have they gone down enough . Rather than being a tease, let me say right up front, with some caveat, i think the answer is, yes. Attractive. No rush, wait for the next marketwide selloff before you pull the trigger so you can pick on weakness, rather than chasing them after the strength that we had today. Get some oil just turned down after hours, maybe that will help. To put it another way, if you see yesterdays levels again, might want to start doing some buying. First off, these Railroad Companies have been struggling with major declines, both secular and cyclical in many of the largest cargoes. Coal has been the poster child for this issue. Remember, you got to ship by rail, cant go by truck. More recently, oil itself as a cargo has become problematic, too, because back during the shale boom Oil Producers would pay the ship vast quantities of crude by train at a very expensive price. Wasnt enough pipeline capacity. The rails also shipped drill pipe, fracking sand, and materials to build up the pipelines we talk about so much. Needless to say, with the price of oil down big year over year pipelines have been built, this business has been eviscerated. How much damage has the weakness in fossil fuels done to the Railroad Companies, and is all of that pain reflected in the stocks yet . House of pain why dont we go through the rails one by one, csx coal and oil accounted for revenue in 2014 and from its peak in 2014 to the 12th yesterday, the stock has declined 42. 2 . In other words, theres currently trading like business is going to disappear entirely. Norfolk southern was 34. 8 coal and oil back in 2014. Its down more than 42 . Union pacific, 34. 5 , stocks down 44 from peak. While coal and oil were substantial parts of the business for all of the rails in every single case, the declines in the Railroad Stocks exceed their combined coal and oil exposure from back in 2014. Flying obviously, this is a very crude form of analysis that it doesnt account for weaknesses and other types of cargoes like metals, but its not like any of the railroads will see their coal and Energy Revenue drop to zero any time soon. Even if their stocks seem to be trading exactly that way. What else makes the rails look more attractive here . One word, value. Dont hear people talking about value anymore, but wait a second, all of these stocks have been accidently high yielders, all supporting dividend yields north of 3 that they can easily pay. Meanwhile, csx now sells less than 12 times projected earnings estimates, approaching its fiveyear low of ten times earnings back in 2011. If you bought csx back in 2011 for less than 20, you have nearly doubled your money by the time the stock peaked in november 2014. 12. 4 times earnings. Thats not far from its fiveyear low of ten times earnings. If you bought it back then in 2011 you would have nearly doubled your money for the peak in late 2014. Finally, Union Pacific trades at 12. 7 times earnings. Thats a couple of turns above their fiveyear low of ten times earnings. If you bought it back in the 2011 lows, you would have more than tripled your money by the time the stock peaked less than a year ago. Not just valuation. Theres real positives that can strengthen the underlying businesses in all these companies. For instance, with the expansion of panama canal, which should be completed this summer, the largest tanker ships will be able to easily pass from the Pacific Ocean to the atlantic, then sail up to the east coast. That could provide a massive boost to intermodal cargoes. Big metal containers that can easily move from ship, train, truck, csx and Norfolk Southern could be a real windfall for them. Even if the project does get should mean a better 2017 for both companies. Why stop at the west coast . Why not go from the panama canal to the east. What else . Interesting merger and acquisition activity in the group, six Major Players in north america, four ive named already, also Canadian Pacific and burlington northern, and i wouldnt be surprised if that whole number shrunk to five or even four via consolidations in the not too distant future. We know Canadian Pacific was pursuing Norfolk Southern with bill ackman. Since november theyve made a series of takeover bids Norfolk Southern has rejected as being, quote, grossly inadequate. 68, two months, we know at least one player wants to make a position, Norfolk Southern and csx could make attractive takeover targets. Theyve fallen from highs. One caveat here, what i wanted to get ahead of this, norfolk assuming they follow in the footsteps of the other three railroads, results could be negative and could withstand the entire group, which gives you a chance. Time to buy the rail stocks . Much more positive in the group, no reason to buy tons of stock immediately. No forced bottom point here, people. You can take your time. What i like to do is leg into these kinds of stocks slowly into weakness, use dividends to tell you exactly to when to pull the trigger. Yes, the yields will tell you. For example, you might want to start a position when the company in question sports a 3. 5 yield, write these down, csx, 20. 57. Union pacific, 62. 80. Norfolk southern, it goes to 67. 43. Thats down just a buck and a half from here. Then add more as the yields climb. 4 you buy another, 4. 5 , 5 , you keep buying. And thats how you get to build a pyramidlike position. As it goes lower, buy a little more. Remember, all these railroads have Safe Dividends they can flow. More aggressive you can start at a little more than 3 yield where they are now. Ill still bless it, as long as you dont buy in one fell swoop, especially if you get a green light from the feds tomorrow in terms of a benign statement. Heres the bottom line, after getting hammered for over a year, i think the Railroad Stocks have finally come down to the point they actually represent decent values. However, there are no near term catalysts, which means no rush to get involved big here. Thats why i suggest phasing into the rails gradually. If they are accidently high yields, go still higher. Particularly Norfolk Southern and csx, where both value and takeout potential make them attractive for those who have the patience to hold them and ride out the storm. Joe in illinois, joe. Caller whats up, jim . Love the show. I had a quick question on the airline industry, industry has whats your prediction for 2016 . Fractionalerts. Com, goes with my travel trust, jack moore and i have put southwest air in the bull pen. As it comes down, we are getting very close to pulling the trigger. The charts real bad, but the stock is cheap, management is great. Its in our bull pen for the travel trust. I cant tell you enough good things about it until it comes down to our price. James in ohio, james caller cramer, hows it going . Man, i dont know, be it a long couple of days, how about you . Caller its done all right. Thank you for taking my call. So i was looking at some parts of oil stocks and caught my eye, Conoco Phillips has done really badly with the recent decline in oil prices, far and away kicking out its august low. Then i was looking at other Companies Like chevron and exxonmobil and even though oil prices are well below where they were in august, nowhere near wondering maybe Conoco Phillips . It should be, heres how it happens, let me give you exactly what goes through my mind. Tempted to say, yeah, i like that, but nbl, very good company, just cut its quarterly dividends. Conoco, then they cut the dividends, youre going to come back and say why didnt cramer warn me that could happen . What im warning you is it could happen. Onetrack mind for profits . I think the Railroad Stocks finally represent decent values here, but dont rush in all at once. Buy slowly on the way down. Much more mad money ahead. Looking for an opportunity to buy smith wesson . Dont make a move until you hear my piece on it. Commodities, not curiosity that killed the cat . And your calls, rapid fire in tonights special edition of the lightning round. Stick with cramer street. Live from post nine at the nyse. Weve got to take this show to china, we should do it outside, well put on the oxygen a sense for whats going on there. Eastern. Three weeks ago smith wesson, the worlds number one guidance dramatically and rang the bell at the new york stock exchange. In order to celebrate, stocks shot up 11 the following day to 25. 86, but ever since then has been put through the meat grinder, to the point its down 18 from those highs, 21 and change. Big part of my job is to help you make sense of counterintuitive moves that at first glance might seem confusing, and this action of smith wesson is a classy example. The truth is, when the company boosted its guidance and the stocks soared, that was actually your signal to ring the register, not buy more. How do i know that . Because theres a heartbreaking pattern to how these gun makers trade, and unfortunately weve seen it play out again and again like clockwork. I hate to say it, but the sad fact is well see this pattern play out again, both in the real world and smith wesson stock prices. I say sad, because the tremendous rally in smith wesson that peaked a few weeks ago can be traced back to the bernardino, california, where a pair of home grown terrorists killed 14 innocent people. We see pretty much the exact same story play out in washington every single time, and that has a direct impact on Smith Wessons business. Its gotten to the point where the whole political narrative has become incredibly predictable. Goes a little like this, every time we get the harrowing news that another one of these tragedies has occurred, whether were talking about School Children in sandy hook back in 2012, or the illfated Office Workers in San Bernardino last december, immediately theres a wave of Popular Support from new gun control regulations across the country. Understandable. And president obama proposes a plan to create stricter gun control laws and rein in gun violence. As soon as we start hearing about any kind of gun control proposal, though, many people get scared the government is going to make it impossible for them to buy guns or even washington will try to take their guns away. Association fans the flames by calling even the loosest of proposed regulations an attack on the second amendment. Thats why every time we see one of these appalling Mass Shootings on the news, without fail, its followed by an enormous surge in gun purchases as people stockpile weapons out of fear that new gun control laws will make it difficult or impossible for them to do so in the future. It is like clockwork. For example, after the sandy hook tragedy in december of 2012, we saw a 50 year over year increase in firearm background checks that very same month. And this past december right after the San Bernardino attack, background checks increased by 50 , just versus the previous month. So its no surprise smith wesson saw its stock move from 18 before the San Bernardino shootings, all the way up to 25 and change barely more than a month later, but that spike in gun sales is only the first part of the pattern. Because, again, without fail congress ultimately votes down any kind of proposed gun control legislation, that also triggers the same cycle. Nra, theres no denying that they have a lot of money to spend, and more importantly, millions of highly motivated politically active members that can mobilize at a moments notice. The nra may be the single most effective Advocacy Group in american politics, so as soon as people realize no new gun control laws are going to materialize, the surge in gun sales pretty much evaporates overnight. Again, look what happened after sandy hook in april 2013 after congress voted down the proposed assault weapons ban, we saw a decrease in firearm background checks versus the previous month, followed by another 16 decrease in may of 2013. In short, within a few months everything kind of goes back to normal for the gun manufacturers, although, obviously, not for the families and friends of the victims. Now, the obama administrations response to the San Bernardino shootings has been a little different. Rather than futilely trying to get congress to pass a gun control bill yet again, on wesson raised its guidance, the president unilaterally issued a series of executive orders designed to strengthen the background check system and requiring gun sellers to get a license from the atf, just like a normal gun shop does. These executive orders represent minimal reforms and the new rules are already being challenged by pro gun Advocacy Groups, plus, if a republican wins in november, theyll be able to reverse new initiatives with the stroke of a pen. The point being, once everybody realized nobody was coming to take their guns away, there was no more reason for anyone to run out and buy lots of new weapons by the truck load, which brings me back to the stock of smith wesson. When the gun maker raised its guidance on january 5th, dramatically boosting forecasts, that didnt signal some secularship and greater demand for guns, it merely indicated the same spike in sales that always happens after a terrible mass shooting, and once that price, investors need to anticipate the inevitable decline in new gun sales that always occurs a few months later, hence why you need to sell on the news. Smith wesson stock is now come down nearly 20 from its peak three weeks ago, but i bet you can get an even better entry point if youre willing to be patient and wait until the stock comes down still further, perhaps to 18 and change. Here is the bottom line, some patterns play out like clockwork, and thats how you can tell when smith wesson raised its guidance so positively three weeks ago, it was a signal to sell, not buy. Because every time we get one of these horrific Mass Shootings, firearm sales skyrocket, as many people worry about the potential of gun control legislation, then those sales fall off a cliff once we remember that its impossible to pass gun control legislation in this country, thanks to the incredible clout of the nra. Thats why i think youll be able to buy smith wesson at an even lower price in the not too understand that despite new gun sales is temporary, until heaven forbid another tragic cycle plays out again. Mad money is back after this break. cell phone rings where are you . Well the squirrels are back in the attic. Mom . Your dad wont call an exterminator. Can i call you back, mom . He says its personal this time. If youre a mom, you call at the worst time. Its what you do. If you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. Its what you do. Where are you . Its very loud there. Are you taking a zumba class . Working on my feet all day gave me pain here. In my lower back but now, i step on this machine which matches my dr. Scholls custom fit orthotic inserts. Now i get immediate relief from my foot pain. My lower back pain. It is time, it is time for the lightning round are you ready . Lightning round, lets start with harish in illinois, hello caller hello, my question is buy or sell my stock in novacure. This is one i have to go back over, down too low, maybe theres something here. Dave in illinois, dave caller stephanie link and i how can you not . Stocks low, im a buyer. Gary in arizona, gary caller hey, jim, mattress firm, buy . Tucson recently at the mirabal, which we loved, saw too many mattress firms, its worrisome to me, i think they are overstored. Ted in virginia, ted caller jim, thank you for all youve done over the years. You were the first person on social media to show us investors how to invest in stocks. I have a great social media team here. Thank you so much. How can i help . Caller phillips 66, buy, wait . Dont buy, why . Fossil fuel stocks here, not going to, they are just too hard right now. Sam in florida, sam caller good evening, jim, this is sam from sunny miami, how are you . How are you . Caller good, good, good, whats your call . I remember when this came up, kind of interested in it, but we have to go back. Why . I have to do a new review of haines and also unfi, the group has been just killed. Why . Because of the action in whole foods. Were going to come back on that. Im not done, rudy in new jersey, rudy caller hi, jim. Im in vineland, new jersey, and first time caller. Excellent. Caller harleydavidson. Blew up again today, scott, youre killing everybody with that. I know youre a good man, but we have to talk more. Saw you on tv today. Are not working. Why go there . Michael in ohio, michael caller jim, love the show. Thank you. Caller buy, sell, or hold on marathon. Thats the refiner, we also had earlier, phillips 66, thats better than marathon, but again dont buy dont buy thats the conclusion of the lightning round the lightning round is sponsored by tdameritrade. In a world thats trying to turn you into someone new. One hair color wants to help you keep on being you. Nicen easy. We only make the most real natural looking color. So even in revealing sunlight, it doesnt look like hair color at all. It looks like, its a hundred percent you. Seems like weve hit a road block. That reminds me. Anyone have occasional constipation, diarrhea. Gas, bloating . Yes one Phillips Colon Health probiotic cap each day helps defend against occasional digestive issues. With three types of good bacteria. Live the regular life. Phillips. Degree motionsense is the worlds first deodorant activated by movement. As you move, fragrance capsules burst to release extra freshness all day. Motionsense. Protection to keep you moving. Degreeit wont let you down. Man sternly where do you think youre going . Mr. Mucus to work, with you. Its taco tuesday. Man youre not coming. I took mucinex to help get rid of my mucusy congestion. Im good all day. Not 4, not 6, but 12 hours. Lets end this you set rules around the house, right . So set rules for your kids when they go online dont be a cyberbully. No racy selfies. And remember everyone can see everything you post, even grandma. Rules keep kids safe online. Did you see the action in the heavy machinery maker . Kind of like a low rent version of caterpillar as it worked higher today up 37 . Quite an unsolicited takeover offer from a chinese company. That strength filled over into the strength of caterpillar, itself, which got lift from the brief rally in oil, which traded down at the closing bell. However, im thinking cat, which is down 31 over the last 12 months, may still not be a good bet here, why . Because not all stocks get cheaper as they go down. Thats the lesson of caterpillar, and its incredibly instructive for the border and awful market, except today maybe. First lets stipulate things, no one disputes cat makes fabulous machinery, ive been around long bought caterpillar equipment, i know its topnotch, its a given. Therefore, it shouldnt matter the equation. Right now, though, amazingly it doesnt, its completely irrelevant caterpillar has excellence dating back to 1886 and the company has been published since 1929, auspicious year, but you get the picture. Caterpillar sells equipment worldwide purchased for massive Construction Projects of all sorts, roads, buildings, commodity extraction, and processing. At the moment sadly for cat and companies caught up with the same customers theres a sharp dropoff in demand, much more than we anticipated, how sharp . Not as vicious as 2008 and 2009, where they went down to 1. 45, i do expect the earnings decline to be brutal. However, unlike the great recession, where caterpillars earnings bounced back almost then to 8. 71, where they peaked in 2012. I expect no similar bounceback from the current slowdown. This time when caterpillar reports on thursday morning, i expect weak, wall street is looking for 69 cents, versus last years 1. 45. I bet the forecast this year will have to come down, maybe substantially from what cat made last year. Therein lies the problem, caterpillar seems dirt cheap if you look at the rearview mirror, but looks to be selling less than 13 times 2015 earnings, roughly ten times 2014 earnings. Remember, the average stock in the s p sells 16 times earnings. Looks like thats cheap, right . Huge discount, but hindsight is 20 20. What we care about is the future here on mad money. If caterpillar earns, for example, what Goldman Sachs said it will earn in its saturday that puts caterpillars price to earnings nearly 17 times forward earnings. Now that makes it more expensive than the average stock, even though its come down. But are cats prospects better than the average stock . I would argue, no, not at all. Given that 60 of the companys earnings come from overseas and will be hurt severely by the super strong dollar, as opposed to all the domestic rails, which i just said are getting attractive, i will contend cats prospects are far worse, or to put it in plain english, because future earnings prospects are so murky, we cant use past history to judge the stock, but can we value another way . How about the dividends, right now cat yields 5. 2 , isnt that a bargain . Not if caterpillar earns as little as Goldman Sachs says it will, because then the payout, wow, could get cut. I know cat doesnt want that done, but goldman talks about it. Unlike the last downturn cats monstrous, could be long lasting if Commodity Prices dont rebound, something the declines in both chinas fortunes and emerging markets ensures. Bottom line, if caterpillar stock goes down, it gets more expensive relative to earnings estimates, not less, and riskier, not safer relative to the dividend yield. Thats why i think the Goldman Sachs sell rating is reasonable. If youve still on caterpillar, maybe you should take advantage of the moment and do some trimming into the strength that the market might give you. Stick with cramer. Here in the city, parking is hard to find. Seems like everyone drives. And those who do should switch to geico because you could save hundreds on car insurance. Ah, perfect. Valet parking. Hello heres the keys. And, uh, go easy on my ride, mate. Hm, wouldnt mind some of that beef wellington. To see how much you could save on car insurance, ah car alarm sounds its ok working on my feet all day gave me pain here. In my knees. But now, i step on this machine and get my number which matches my dr. Scholls custom fit orthotic inserts. Now i get immediate relief from my foot pain. My knee pain. Find a machine at drscholls. Com did you know theres a cough liquid that lasts for twelve hours . Try delsym twelve hour cough liquid. Its advanced formula releases powerful medicine that acts fast while its extended release medicine lasts for 12 hours. Okay, the stock of apples peak last summer had 132 and going down ever since. Why . Simple, because people are worried that the iphone might slow, china might slow, and that apple may have the forecast of a decline, first time in ten so here we are, stock is down big, china is slowing, we know that the forecast is now bad for the first time in ten years, meaning its down, and what happens . Everybody freaks out. When you get exactly what we were worried about and people freak out, i think that that may be an opportunity, so im telling you once again, i want you to own apple, i dont want you to trade it. And if it gets below 90 tomorrow, that could very well be your chance. I like to say theres always a bull market somewhere, promise ill find it just for you here on mad money. Im jim cramer, see you tomorrow its wednesday, january 27th and coming up on show show,early today. Pulling out, donald trump says