His candidacy. Ted cruz and John Kasich Join me as well. Plus, the democrats, Bernie Sanders win in michigan gives him new hope. And the Clinton Campaign new reasons to worry about the midwest. And brand new polls out of florida, ohio and illinois. Theres a lot more uncertainty about tuesday than you might think. Joining me for insight and analysis this sunday morning are republican strategist alex castillanos. Influential radio talk show host hugh hewitt. Welcome to sunday. Its meet the press. From nbc news in washington, this is meet the press with chuck todd. Good sunday morning. Students in history know how familiar chicago is with violence at political events. In 1968 antivietnam war protesters clashed with police at the Democratic National convention in chicago. Ultimately became known as a police riot, the chaos tarnished the party and led to Hubert Humphreys defeat and loss in that fall. And pushing and fighting led to donald trump cant scheduled appearance. Ted cruz and marco rubio and john kasich agreed the ugly scene was the result of a toxic environment nurtured and encouraged by trump. And heres Hillary Clinton adding her perspective yesterday. If you play with matches, you can start a fire you cant control. That is not leadership. That is political arson. But to his supporters it was another example of opponents trying to deny the leading candidate for the republican nomination his right to free speech. And all of this comes just days ahead of what were calling separation tuesday. Five primaries that may finally separate frontrunners donald trump and Hillary Clinton from and three new nbc the wall this morning. In florida an absolute mustwin for rubio. He trails donald trump by a nearly two to one margin 4322. Ted cruz at 21 right behind rubio. In illinois trumps lead is smaller, but its significant over cruz and kasich. Hes got a ninepoint lead over cruz but kasich a close third there to cruz. But in ohio it is Governor John Kasich holding a slim sixpoint lead over donald trump 3933. Obviously a kasich win there would keep him in the race and complicate trumps effort to win a majority of the delegates before the convention. Hillary clinton is leading sanders in all three states up 6134 in florida. Clinton with a 20point lead in ohio, but both campaigns dispute that one. And its much closer in illinois where clinton leads by just six points, 5145. A lot of democrats believe rahm emanuel backlash is helping Bernie Sanders there. Democratic race later, but were going to start with the republicans and the republican frontrunner donald trump. Mr. Trump, welcome back to meet the press, sir. Good morning. I got to start with whats been happening over the last 48 to 72 hours. Do you accept any responsibility whatsoever for the escalated tension that takes place at your rallies . Well, i think if anything a lot of people have praised me for canceling the one rally. We had 25,000 people coming, we got a lot of them not to come through notice. And the rest of them we canceled because we had disrupters out there. They werent really protesters, they were disrupters, like professionals. They had Bernie Sanders signs all over the place and made by Bernie Sanders people. These were professionally made signs. And rather than going, which i could have done pretty easily, i would have gone, made a speech, you would have had an awfully big riot and a lot of people would have been hurt. And ive been given a lot of credit for not going. And everybody disbursed and beyond that. Okay. But earlier in the week there was an incident between a supporter of yours and a protester. And i want to play a piece of sound from a couple weeks ago from you and ask you about it on the other side. Theres a guy totally disruptive throwing punches. I love the old days. You know what they used to do to guys like that when they were in a place like this . Theyd be carried out on a stretcher, folks. Like to punch him in the face, ill tell ya. Mr. Trump, 17 days later that actually happened. One of your supporters decided to sucker punch a protester. Do you accept any responsibility for creating this atmosphere . I dont accept responsibility. I do not condone violence in any shape. And i will tell you from what i saw the young man stuck his finger up in the air and the other man sort of just had it. But i still i dont condone as far as my previous statement, we had somebody that was punching and vicious and gone crazy, a disrupter. Theyre not protesters. Im telling you, theyre disrupters. Theyre professionals. He went absolutely wild punching. And frankly, when they punch, its okay. When my people punch back because they have to out of selfdefense, everybody says, oh, isnt that terrible. The fact is that we have very peaceful rallies. Ive had many, many rallies i have 25 30,000 people coming to rallies. And out of that we have very little problem. We havent had a real injury or anything. And then chicago i canceled and i did a great thing by canceling it because who needs the problems, who needs people getting hurt . I didnt want that. But when you say so instead of getting but mr. Trump, when you say you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knocked crap out of them. I promise ill pay for your legal fees. This older general man er er gentleman did to this protester . Let me explain what happened. I was told by the secret service, sir, theres a person or two people in the audience that have tomatoes. You, we think. If they do throw them, you have to be prepared. Now, you get hit in the face with a tomato, let me tell you somebody with a strong arm at least, let me tell you it can be very damaging. Not good. So i was told people were in the audience two people with tomatoes that theyre going to throw them at me. What i did is say, by the way, if you see anybody with tomatoes tomatoes, right at the beginning. Yeah. You got to stop them. Do whatever you have to do. I have no objection to what i said. I would say it again. People are there doing harm, you have to go and you have to use equal force. Do you plant its not fair. Its a one way street. Im curious, do you plan on paying for the legal fees of the protester . I want to see what that young man was doing. He was very taunting. He was very loud. Very disruptive. And from what i understand he was sticking a certain finger up in the air. And that is a terrible thing to do in front of somebody that, frankly, wants to see america made great again. And so well see. Im going to take a look at it. And that condones and that condones a sucker punch though . No, as i told you before, nothing condones. But i want to see. The man got carried away. He was 78 years old. He obviously loves this country. And maybe he doesnt like seeing whats happening to the country. I want to see the full tape. So you might pay for his legal fees . I well, im going to look at it. Im going to see what was behind this because it was a strange event. But from what i heard there was a you know, there was a lot of taunting and a certain finger was placed in the air. Not nice. Again, i dont condone the violence. I dont condone what he did, but so its possible its possible you could help him with legal fees if this man needs it . Ive actually instructed my people to look into it, yes. Okay. I want to ask you about the moment yesterday in dayton. Looked like a scary moment being rushed to the stage. I want to ask you, you said it was you praised the secret service, but then you said the man had ties to isis. Turned out to be a hoax. Did you go over the top there on that . Where did you no, no. He was if you look on the internet, if you look into clips turned out to be a hoax. Somebody made that up, sir. He had talk well, i dont know what they made up. All i can do is play whats there. He was walking dragging the American Flag on the ground. Is that a correct statement . Was that a hoax too . Well, that was he just dragging it along . Tweet. You didnt see the clip. Now. You didnt see the clip. He was playing arabic music. The ground and he had internet isis. So i dont know if he was or not, but all we did was put out what he had on his internet. Hes dragging the flag, the American Flag, which i respect obviously more than you. He was dragging the American Flag on the ground like it was a okay. I dont like that. And a lot of people dont like that. And he also had chatter about isis or with isis. And you take a look at it. I mean, people are looking at it very seriously now, but you have to check it before you ask the question. Point, sir. Theres no ties to isis for this man. No Law Enforcement official. And this video that you link to appears to be a hoax. Okay. Well, was it a hoax that hes dragging the flag . Was that him . It looked like the same man to me. He was dragging a flag along the ground. And he was playing a certain type of music. And supposedly there was chatter about isis. Now, i dont know. What do i know about it . And i dont like to see a man dragging the American Flag along the ground in a mocking fashion. All right. I want to marco rubio said some pretty tough things about you yesterday. I want to play it and get you to react to it on the other side. He doesnt want to say anything to his supporters because he doesnt want to turn them off. Because he understands the reason why they are voting for him is because hes tapped into this anger. When the person youre supporting for president is going around saying things like go ahead and slap him around, ill pay your legal fees, what do you thinks going to happen next . Someones going to actually literally believe it and take it upon themselves. Marco rubio right . Are you afraid to tell your supporters to back off . Look, first of all, marco rubio has the worst voting record in the United States senate in many, many years. He doesnt even show up to vote. Hes defrauded the people of florida. He wont even show up to vote. And i want to tell you, for him to be talking like that is absolutely a shame. I have great support. I have great supporters far greater than you understand. The if you look at the polls going in for the primaries. Yeah. If you look and the caucuses. Were up 65 and 70 . Some are up 102 . Millions and millions of people are energized. Theyre going and voting. By the way, thats not for marco rubio and not for lying ted cruz, thats for trump. Theyre there voting for trump. Okay. Because they want to see america be made great again. I understand that. But i want to button this up a little bit. This violence on the campaign trail, its got a lot of people concerned. And i guess, why wont you go up on stage and ratchet it back . Youve used rhetoric about islam hates us, surveillance of certain mosques, calling mexican immigrants rapists. What did you expect . A lot of people say youre the reason you have so much violence at rallies is you use the rhetoric. The reason theres tension at my rallies is that these people are sick and tired of this theyre doing on trade deals where our jobs are being ripped out of our country, chuck. Theyre being ripped out. On isis where we cant even beat isis with our military. Our militarys not being taken care of. We cant even beat isis. On our vets who are being treated horribly, frankly theyre being treated worse than illegal immigrants. The people are angry at that. Theyre not angry about something im saying. Im just a messenger. The people are angry about the fact that for 12 years the workers in this country havent had a pay increase, chuck, in 12 years they havent had an effective pay increase. So you will not call for ratcheting back the rhetoric . You will not call for it . Well, i havent said anything that im just expressing my opinion. What have i said thats wrong . I mean, i talk about illegal immigration, i talk about building a wall, i say mexicos going to pay for the wall, which they will. And all of these things. I mean, what have i said thats wrong . You tell me. The fact is theyre really upset with the way our country is being run. Its a disgrace. Mr. Trump, stay safe on the trail. Well watch you tuesday. Thank you, sir. Thank you. It would be fair to say that tuesday is make or break for my next guest, Ohio Governor john kasich. He needs to win his home state of ohio to deal a blow to donald trump, and the signs are good for him this morning with the latest poll giving the governor a fivepoint lead. Governor kasich, welcome back to meet the press. Thanks, chuck. Always great to be with you. Well, let me just start with whats been the dominant theme over the last 72 hours. You yesterday went out of your way to criticize donald trump for creating the toxic environment that it appears to have engulfed this campaign over the last 72 hours in his own rallies. How can you still sit there and say youll support him if hes the nominee if he is creating a toxic environment like this . I got to think you seem to be struggling with this. Well, its tough. I mean, but hes not going to be the nominee, chuck. I mean, as you know im ahead in ohio. Great support, i hope, of the ohio folks here who i think are going to help me to take the message and the formula thats helped to fix ohio, improve ohio, to washington. And, you know, its tough. I mean, i just listened to the last minute of this interview. Its everything is negative. Everything is americas losing and were terrible and i mean, come on. Were not were doing look, we got our challenges. People are worried about the security of their job, worried about the wages, worried about not getting any interest in the bank, worried about their kids future. But we can fix these things. Situations before. The depression, world war ii, we can fix this. And, you know, i walk into a room and i tell people we can get this done by remembering were americans before were republicans and democrats. And conservative principles can fix this thing. Of course its a struggle. Disqualifying himself. What more does he have to do to disqualify himself . Lets see what happens. Settled down. I dont know how many debates for people to put our their vision and be positive. Direction. Lets see. Nominee, chuck. I have to tell you, its not going to happen. By the way, how does it happen for you . Weve done the math. You will go onto win ohio. You need 112 of the remaining number. Yeah. Now, i wasnt a math major, but thats mathematically impossible. So how do you get there . Obviously it has to be a contested convention, right . Well, look, theres 1,000 delegates yet to pick, is my understanding. And dont be surprised if i go to the convention with the largest number of delegates. Is it likely that well have to have some sort of a multiballot convention . Its probably likely, but you never know in politics, chuck. You know that. Whats true today is not all im doing is telling people ive helped to create over 400,000 jobs in ohio, were running surpluses, wages are going up faster than the National Average. I did it in washington. And i want to go back and do it one more time. Thats what i want to do. And thats what im focused on. Now, obviously this whole thing contested convention not only hinges on you doing well in ohio, it may hinge on rubio doing well in florida. Heres what marco rubio said about you yesterday. Clearly john kasich is has a better chance of winning ohio than i do. And if a voter in ohio concludes that voting for john kasich gives us the best chance to stop donald trump there, i anticipate thats what they will do. And as you know his campaign went onto say theyre encouraging their supporters to do that in ohio. Why arent you reciprocating and asking your supporters in florida to do the same thing for marco rubio . Well, chuck, first of all, my voters are not like robots where i can say go do something, okay. Tell people to vote for somebody else . But lets be clear. Im not in florida. In fact, i tried to call marco last night to wish him good luck. I couldnt get him, but look you want him to win florida . You want marco rubio to win florida . Id like to win florida. I dont see its in the cards like it is im going to win ohio. Fair enough. But look, the bottom line is i dont go telling people what they should do and particularly when theyre for me, go support somebody else. If that was the case, that doesnt make sense to me, okay . Fair enough. Is your campaign now working actively with other campaigns, ted cruz and marco rubio, for strategies to deny Trump Delegates . Are you at that faze of this campaign yet . No, if its going on, im unaware of it. Because heres why, chuck, this is not class president. This is commander in chief and leader of the free world. I mean, ive got the Foreign Policy experience and the success and the domestic policy experience and the success to be bring people together. So all this to me thats just, you know, stuff thats way out here. Im more focused on giving people some hope that america can get its spirit back. All right. Governor john kasich, im going to leave it there. Stay safe on the trail. Thank you. Tuesdays going to be fascinating. All right. Chuck, thank you. You got it. When we come back, how much is donald trump to blame for the violence at his rallies . And later, ted cruz says donald trump, quote, affirmatively encourages violence. Ill ask him about that and more in just a few minutes. Brought to you by belsomra. Welcome back. The panel is here. Alex, veteran republican strategist who of course has worked for the doles of the world, the bushes, mitt romney. He is the republican establishment right now. Anne garrett, Political Correspondent at the washington post, Doris Goodwin and conservative radio talk show host hugh hewitt. Im going to start with you, doris. How did we get to where chicago friday night for a brief period looked like chicago 68 . It not only looked like chicago 68 but chicago 1912, clubs and baseball bats in front opposing supporters in. Theyd scuffle in the lobbies and dynamite explosions went off. We should remember weve been through this before, but the difference is were seeing it live now just as we did in 68. And so youre feeling whats happening to our country. As an historian i might say, oh, this is exciting to be able to know 200 years from now an historian would be able to detail this the way i couldnt in 1912, but as a citizen its pretty sad. Look at this what weve put together of trump and some of the remarks hes done. Take a listen. He was swinging. He was hitting people. And the audience hit back. And thats what we need a little bit more of. You know what they used to do to guys like that when they were in a place like this . Theyd be carried out on a stretcher, folks. Like to punch him in the face. Ill tell ya. No politicians going to solve it. I was going to say theyre full of [ bleep ], but i wont say that. So if you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock seriously. Just knock the i promise you, i will pay for the legal fees. I promise. See the first group i was nice. Oh, take your time. The second group i was pretty nice. The third group ill be a little more violent. And the fourth group ill say [ cheers and applause ] hugh hewitt. Well, the trump tractor beam is pretty strong but marco rubio hopes someone flips it off and i think it took a big hit over the last 72 hours. If you remember the 1999 battle for seattle, nobody liked that. It recoiled from it. There are professional disrupters. He is now a magnet for it. Magnet for it. That is going to accelerate. And john kasich, i think were going to have a throwback tuesday where he wins in ohio because he is the opposite of that. Hes actually i was reminded of him when i was seeing George Schultz in the front row of the nancy reagan funeral, perhaps public servant, extraordinarily credentialed. John kasich is credentialed. Donald trump is the tractor beam on the disappointed, but i think this week its changing. All right. Hugh, every sunday we come to this point. I was joking with our producer, alex, for the last six weeks its been, boy, trumps in trouble. Then tuesday comes and he wins big. Oh, hes about to runaway with it. Then he does something controversial. Trumps in trouble. Same pattern . How many times can you bury donald trump . Again. Right. The race hasnt changed. It looks like after tuesday john kasich is going to be the new marco rubio in a threeway race. Guess what, donald trump has the most intense third. This thing goes on almost exactly unchanged despite all of this. This is the most fun and the most frightening campaign that ive ever seen in that sense. Longterm redefinition i think of the Republican Party. I used to think trump wouldnt hes so unique. Well, trump is trump. Hes not really a republican or conservative. This is going somewhere that none of us i think imagined. And theres a good chance that republicans just need to take this thing assert themselves by offering a better, more hopeful visionary direction of where this party needs to go. You know, anne, what ive been surprised at is rubio, cruz and kasich wont go that final step and say, you know what, i cant do it. If trumps the nominee, im walking away. And i just think that makes them look like typical politicians who want to have it both ways. Right. They also wont say they wont call him a racist, they wont kind of go that final mile where they make the point what hes doing is in their view out of bounds and they will not countenance it. They go almost there but not quite. Chief strategist made a comparison to george wallace. Said the Democratic Party did shut wallace out. And through essentially rhetorically threw him out. Does the Republican Party need to do that with donald trump . No. I dont think so. Because i dont think trump is a racist. I dont think he has a violence in his heart. Ive seen firsttime candidates get up there, you get up on stage, you start, you know, youre having fun, a protester, oh, you do more of it and its all fun and games until one day theres blood on the floor. And now theres blood on the floor. And how trump reacts now, what ive seen so far hes reacting exactly the wrong way. He needs to demonstrate now that hes mature. But for the Republican Party to tell a bunch of frustrated voters that, no, therefore you have to accept more of the same failure from the republican establishment has changed nothing, failure from a democratic establishment that offers nothing see and that ignited in 68. Thats what they have to be this could have been a dividing line in a good way for trump. If he had answered your question differently theres no way hes going to disavow what he said about the wall and things like that. Hes harnessed the anger through that. But he could say if my rhetoric did produce some of the feelings, then i want to say to my supporters that i shouldnt have used that rhetoric. And i will not use it in the future. He could have been a president ial potential. This was the moment it gave him a real moment and he didnt take it because temperamentally he couldnt. If he told me i just got off the phone with the young man that was hit and i said i was sorry this happened to him. What alex has said, donald trump is a developer. Developers do what works. What he has been doing is what has been working. It is not working this weekend. And i expect that the reason he will not change. He will change and they wont disavow. Youve come here many sundays and said that and then tuesday happens. And a pause here. Well be back in a moment with senator ted cruz of texas who john kasich would get out of the race, he could beat trump oneonone. We were born 100 years ago into a new american century. Born with a hunger to fly and a passion to build something better. And what an amazing time its been, decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. So, we say thank you america for a century of trust, for the privilege of flying higher and higher, together. Every day you read headlines about businesses property being stolen. And it affects each microsoft created the digital crimes unit to fight cybercrime. We use the microsoft cloud to visualize information so we can track down the criminals. Trust and security are paramount. Were building what we learn welcome back. You may not have noticed but there were a couple of contests attention. Marco rubio won the Republican Caucus in washington, d. C. By one point over john kasich. Ted cruz took the gop caucus in guam. Yes, guam. Every delegate matters. None of this changes the donald trump now leads ted cruz by 84 votes. Yesterday i was joined by senator ted cruz of texas and we started by talking about trump. Let me start with the tone of the campaign. And you have addressed this a couple of times in specifically having to do with Donald Trumps rallies. Let me play two different explanations youve given to this, one from the debate and one from friday. Here it is. Weve seen for seven years a president who believes hes above the law, who behaves like an emperor. And when you have a campaign that disrespects the voters, when you have a campaign that affirmatively encourages violence, youve created an environment that only encourages this sort of nasty discord. Is donald trump the one responsible for the tone of his rallies and donald trump alone . The protesters have no right to engage in violence. They have no right to threaten violence. And these protesters whether its black lives matter or Bernie Sanders protesters who are coming in just trying to shout down any speaker, thats not free speech. The First Amendment gives you a right to speak, but it doesnt give you a right to silence others. So the protesters are behaving abusively and wrong. But at the end of the day in any campaign, responsibility starts at the top. And it is not beneficial when you have a president ial candidate like donald trump telling his supporters, punch that guy in the face. What would you advise donald trump to do . Because this is reflecting on the Republican Party as a whole, or it could considering hes currently the frontrunner . Listen, i think every candidate ought to aspire towards decency, towards bringing us together. I dont think we should be using angry and hateful rhetoric. I dont think we should be cursing at people. Troubled i mentioned at the debate this week, im troubled by the rallies donald holds where he skz people there to raise their hand and pledge their support to him. This is america, we dont pledge alee legiance to a man. We pledge allegiance to a flag, we pledge our support for the constitution, but that is something you see kings and queens doing of their subjects. And all of this is part and parcel of the same thing. We need a president who understands he works for the people. Listen, i am running to pledge my support to you, not the other way around. And i hope that all of the candidates reflect that understanding. I want you to react to something here that president obama said at a fundraiser responding to the tone of donald trump rallies. Here it is, sir. And whats been happening in our politics lately, its not an accident. For years weve been told we should be angry about america and that the economys a that compromise is weakness and that you can ignore science and you can ignore facts and say whatever you want about the president president. And feed suspicion about immigrants and muslims and poor people and people who arent like us. Thats the president essentially saying this is been happening for years before most of his term. You know, chuck, barack obama is a world class demagogue. That language there is designed to divide us. No, mr. President , were not angry at that. Were angry at politicians in washington including you who ignore the men and women who elected you, who have been presiding over our jobs going overseas for seven years, who have been cutting deals that are enriching the rich and powerful, the special interests and the big corporations while working men and women are seeing their wages stagnating. And he talks about immigrants and muslims. Mr. President , were mad at a Syrian Refugees who may be infiltrated by isis. And youre unwilling to be commander in chief to keep us safe so dont engage in attacking people like the president did. That language is the kind of selfrighteous moralizing from the president that makes people angry. Do you think thats worse than what Donald Trumps been doing . To be honest, i think its very much the same. Theyre both engaging in demagogue demagoguery. We need instead a president who wakes up every day working for the hard working taxpayers. If im president , chuck, my focus is going to be the hard working taxpayers bringing back jobs and economic growth. Were going to do that by repealing obamacare, by passing a simple flat tax, by abolishing the irs, by pulling back the regulations that are killing small business. Isnt it fair to say this is a your strategy is to get to a contested convention because you cant win this before the convention . Not remotely. The math doesnt work, sir. It works perfectly. In order for anyone to be the delegates. There are only two of us that have any plausible path to get there, me and donald trump. Ive got 362. He has 99 more than i do right now. Now, to get nobody else is remotely close. Now, what this primary has been about for the past year has been narrowing and narrowing and narrowing the field. When we get headtohead, not only do i beat donlds ald, but i beat him squarely. What were seeing happening right now is were seeing republicans uniting behind our campaign. Now, a lot of the media focuses on florida and ohio, what the numbers are clear if kasich and rubio had dropped out already, we would be beating donald trump right now in both florida and ohio. You know our florida poll the combined number of you and rubio would be able to overtake trump. But youve been campaigning in florida, rubio has a better shot the delegates is what you need to do in florida, is it not . No, were not engaged in this delegate denial strategy that came out of the washington establishment because they have dreams of a brokered convention dropping their favorite washington candidate in to win. That would be a disaster. The people would revolt. The only way to beat donald trump is beat him at the ballot and theres only one candidate that can get to 1237 and beat donald trump, and thats me. Youve said some tough things on trump. Why are you comfortable supporting him as the nominee if he ends up the nominee . Listen, i pledged at the outset i will support the republican nominee whoever it is. Why are you making a pledge to a party and not to the voters . Because Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would be a manifest disaster. If hillary is the president , we will lose the Supreme Court for a generation, the Second Amendment will be written out of the bill of rights, well lose our religious liberty, well be buried in debt and kids will remain coming out of School Without jobs, without opportunity. Hillary would be disastrous for so the answer is not simply to resign yourself to donald trump, who would be a disaster as well. The answer is to beat donald. Given everything youve just said about him in this interview you still will support him if thats what the Republican Party does . You know, chuck, im a very simple man. When i give my word for something, i follow through and do what i said. Coming up, why Donald Trumps track record in the primary so far actually provides some big clues on which states hes going to win on tuesday. Then later my message is resonating with a very Diverse Group of white people. And ive got supporters of all before fibromyalgia, i was on the go. I was organized. I was a doer. Then the chronic, widespread pain drained my energy. My doctor and i agreed moving more helps ease fibromyalgia pain. She also prescribed lyrica. Fibromyalgia is thought to be to calm these nerves. For some patients, lyrica significantly relieves fibromyalgia pain and improves physical function. With less pain, i feel better and can be more active. Lyrica may cause serious allergic reactions or suicidal thoughts or actions. Tell your doctor right away if you have these, new or worsening depression or unusual changes in mood or behavior. 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The True Partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. Accelerating innovation. Accelerating next. Hewlett packard enterprise. Data download is brought to you by lyrica. And we are back. Its meet the press Data Download time. Five states are going to be voting on tuesday, ohio, florida, North Carolina, illinois and missouri. But its possible you dont need polls to look at trumps chances in a state. Right now just look at how hes already performed. So we looked at the 15 States Donald trump has already won to see what we found. And guess what, two things have jumped out at us. Number one, trump has been winning in states where the Unemployment Rate is above the National Average of 5 . And two, hes winning in states where the africanamerican population is above 8 , now to every state trump has won, however he is 9 for 9 in states where both of those factors are in place. So what does that tell us about where trump might win in the future . Of the 24 remaining contests on the gop side, four of unemployment above 5 and black population above 8 . And guess what, three of those four states are voting on tuesday. Illinois, North Carolina and florida. And guess what, polls are showing that he is ahead in all of those three states. There is a fourth, connecticut also fits this. They dont vote until april 26th. What does this all mean . People vote for many different reasons. But what trump has tapped into, this issue of race and economic struggle, theyre closely tied. And hes taking advantage of it. Africanamerican population is an indicator, not because trump is winning the minority vote, but because hes winning among white voters who live in communities with large minority populations. When we come back, why we might be looking at separation will donald trump and Hillary Clinton finally separate i love to take pictures that engage people. And to connect us with the wonderment of nature. The detail on this surface book is amazing. With the tiger image, the saliva coming off and you got this turning. Thats why i need this kind of resolution and computing power. Being able to use a pen like this. On the screen directly with the image. It just gives me a different relationship to it. And i cant do that on my mac. And can you explain why you recommend synthetic over cedar . Super food . Is that a real thing . Its a great school, but is it the right one for her . Is this really any better than the one you got last year . If we consolidate suppliers, whats the savings there . So should we go with the 467 horsepower . Or is a 423 enough . You ask a lot of good i think we should move you into our new fund. Sure. Ok. But are you asking enough about Wealth Management at panel is back to look ahead to what were calling separation tuesday what im calling separation tuesday. Im trying very hard to make this work. But like our friends on game day, they try to rivalry saturday. Well, this is separation tuesday. Well, we go through the best Case Scenarios for all. If trump wins florida and loses ohio, then he has to win 59 of all remaining delegates in a threeway race. If cruz wins, 35 of proportional delegates, best Case Scenario for him he then has to win 80 of remaining the convention without contested convention. And if rubio wins florida, he would have to win 98 of all remaining delegates. Heres our favorite math i used with john kasich earlier. If he wins ohio, hes got to win 112 of remaining delegates. Alex, youre a math major, right . Absolutely. How does that work out for you . Two and two trumps got three things going into this convention, assuming hes going to lose ohio, hes got a carrot, a stick and a deal. Hes very good at deals. The stick is his voters are intense and were going to want to keep those voters in the Republican Party. Its going to be hard to exclude those voters. Tell them, hey, trump, youve come in with the most votes but you dont have any right to this nomination. Going to be tough to do. Thats the stick. The carrot is weve seen ben carson join the trump campaign. Right. What would a Trump Administration look like . A convention can sort out a lot of those things. And if trumps as good at making deals, you know, thats a card the problem is this kind of intense emotional violence were seeing this week makes that awfully tough to achieve. I was just going to say it feels like shortterm game, longterm pain for donald trump to unify the party. I mean, he hasnt tried. Hes so far had no reason to. Hes winning by bringing in people who havent been traditional Republican Voters in many cases or whove been disaffected in others. He says he wants to be a unifier and at some point he would actually have to start doing that. But to this point theres been no imperative for him. Hugh, will the stop Trump Movement ever fizzle . I feel like it has fizzled, but meaning will it ever die . Will they ever sort of capitulate and say nothing we can do about it, its his nomination . I dont think so. I think the party would split. Senator ben sass is pretty much to 1912 because that was an ir breakup, i dont know how you make a marriage with donald trump and either of the other two. With lying ted, he said it to you this morning. Again. Its a divorce and its final. I think just listening to what hugh said, i agree. I think the never Trump Movement has said such tough things about him, theyre not just talking about his ideology, theyre saying hes unfit, hes delusional, he will destroy our country. If youve said those kind of things, and these are big people on record, real activists in the Republican Party, how can they turn around and say i think theyd be better off, they themselves have said we want a third party, we want to split. We have to create this new Republican Party for the future. Barring a sweep by trump, seems like the conclusion is after tuesday assuming kasich wins ohio, contested convention here we come. Cleveland, get your rule books ready. The democratic side, anne, has been interesting here because if it wasnt for this republican race wed be sitting there going, boy, whats going on here . We showed the illinois numbers. I can tell you the clinton ohio, very nervous about missouri which looks an awful lot like oklahoma to them. Rahm emanuels unpopularity may cost them votes in chicago they normally would have. And theyre even thinking North Carolinas going to be close. Yeah. I mean, this week is sort of a replay of super tuesday for them where but in a more defensive approach. Absolutely. I was going to say without the many advantages going in we thought she had there. And we really cant underestimate the blow that michigan dealt to the campaign. She was supposed to win there. She expended a lot of Political Capital and a lot of time and effort to win there and she lost badly. And ill tell you i think the auto bailout hit, i think they wish theyd done it sooner. Right. They sort of blew that one. But theyve been wary, alex. Its sort of like they have one foot in the general, they dont want ta alienate sanders, they dont want to anger him or his voters and at the same time they need to defeat him. Well, Bernie Sanders is going to be the democratic nominee. Yes. Whether hes wearing a man suit or a pantsuit. Oh, i see what youre saying. The campaign belongs to Bernie Sanders. Its not hillarys campaign. Shes the figure head and thats why its so difficult. But shes going to grab it. Shes going to grab it. Shell end up being the nominee. But it doesnt fit her at all. How can she sell that in a general . You know how she sells it . Donald trump. Theres something called the second baseman cant throw to first, golfers cant make putts. She had a terrible week at the reagan funeral and the aids comment, terrible response to chicago, she makes more forced errors than sax and the dodgers. Thats going way back. I must say she came out and said she misspoke. You have to give her credit for immediately saying, exhausted and said the wrong thing about aids and shes in a funeral, shes in the that golden moment, thats when misspoke really works. I said something wrong. Actually, im going to pause here. Were going to play it on the other side because its interesting she used misspoke because it may be a misremember, not a misspoken. Well be back in less than a minute. Our end game segment and a transformative moment from snl that alex just previewed. Here it is. Thank you, millennial r s for lending your support to the even parents need a time out sometimes, especially from communications technology. Read, talk, make art, or whatever. No batteries required. End game time. The panel is here, as i promised, doris, let me play first of all the quote were all talking about. This was Hillary Clinton with Andrea Mitchell at Nancy Reagans memorial service. The other point i wanted to make too is it may be hard for your viewers to remember how difficult it was for people to talk about hiv aids back in the 1980s. And because of both president and mrs. Reagan, in particular 34rs mrs. Reagan, we started a National Conversation when it. All right. Well, they quickly cleaned this up after getting a whole mess of complaints from the lgbt community. Said the reagans were strong advocates for Stem Cell Research in finding a cure for alzheimers disease i misspoke for records on hiv and aids. For that im sorry. Now, a misspeak, that didnt look like a misspeak. They gave an explanation of what she was trying to refer to. Well, yeah. I mean, its kind of unbelievable that she could completely conflate or misremember one of the central tenants of the aids crisis, right . Which was that the did the Reagan Administration do enough . Exactly. At the time the crisis emerged the president was looking the other way and actively doing so is the way that narrative goes and nancy reagan was chief among that. But during the Reagan Administration, the surgeon general, recognized the problem and actually tried to knock on that door at the white house to get the white house to do more. Yes, i mean alex, you hear that she saved his job she quietly said, no, no, no. Can a republican defend Hillary Clinton on the rare occasions we get a chance . The woman made a mistake. We all do. She campaigns so mechanically sometimes you think shes patented, not born, right . She has to make spots that she actually has a mother to remind us of her humanity. She made a mistake. She said im sorry i did that, i got that one wrong. Good for her. Thats the kind of candidate i think people would love to see a little more of. A little more spon nay ty taneity. One of the great things reagan would say id like to think im smarter today than yesterday. So she understand what this is all about. Thats critical for growth for some candidate or any leader, theyre all going to screw up at some point and they have to acknowledge it and grow from it and figure out. I give her credit for that. I understand why people were angry though because that was a huge moment in the aids community. And they have a right to be angry. Absolutely. Before the apology took them a while. Well, not that long. It was a brush fire. They didnt know this was going to be such a thing. Well, it became a thing instantly. They got a lot of blowback. And they tried to deal with it as quickly as they could. The outrage in the industry in america though overwhelms everything and at the end of the day devalues genuine outrage, which we needed and theres plenty of opportunity for that in this campaign. The reagan years were silent on aids. And its part of the principle planks of the criticism of president reagan the band played on, all those books they stayed silent. I think its a terrible campaign response. Every candidate makes mistakes either you respond to them quickly and the chicago statement was awful. Well, ill tell you if they lose illinois, it is on rahm emanuel. And apparently he knows it. Theres nothing he can do about it. Hes a toxic figure. That just is what it is. Its fascinate ing how shes hes beenin invisible with her. Well, has to be. Alex is giving all this away, but we have to play snl, you get the whole thing now here, alex. Bernie sanders and the impact on Hillary Clinton. Here it is. Youre fired up. Youre angry. And im angry too. Because the top 10 of the top 1 controls 90 of the wealth in this country. So thank you millennial for lending your support to the biggest outsider jew in the race, Hillary Rodham clinton. But, doris, that actually is whats happening. Bernie sanders has won the message primary. I think thats true. He won the message. This is their sense of rendezvous with destiny. You have to get that Younger Generation to support what youve got to move in that direction. You know whats fun about watching this though it just reminds you politics used to be fun. Yeah. When they did dirty tricks on each other, they were fun tricks, dressing up a whole bunch of nuns looking like they held nixon signs or inviting basically sending too many pizzas to fundraiser. Literally high jings. Were not getting high jinx but i think that demonstrates why some republicans are in despair because indicates a cruz ticket would beat a. She makes the race about him and you cant make the race about her. Thats all we have for today. Well be back next week. If its sunday, its meet the