Visions for america. Gwen but what will that choice mean for the economy, education, health care and the lame duck president . Covering the campaign, molly ball, National Political correspondent for the atlantic, karen tumulty, National Political correspondent for the Washington Post, amy walter, National Editor for the cook political report, and jeff zeleny, senior washington correspondent for abc news. Awardwinning reporting and analysis, covering history as live from our nations capitol, this is Washington Week with gwen ifill. Corporate funding for Washington Week is provided by how much money do you have in your pocket right now . I have 40. 21. Could something that small make an impact on something as big as your retirement . Well, if you start putting that money towards your retirement every week and let it grow over time for 20, 30 years, that retirement challenge might not seem so big after all. The future of surgery is within sight. Our research is studying how real time multimodality surgery can help precision and outcomes. Brigham womens hospital. It all starts here. Funding for Washington Week is also provided by the annenberg foundation, the corporation for public broadcasting, and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. Thank you. Once again, live from washington, moderator gwen ifill. Gwen good evening. So as we brace for the big wave or for the minor splash that will drive the analysis tuesday night, we gather here around the table to offer you a finalweekend, halloweennight assessment of what the 2014 Midterm Election has turned out to be. Has it been a referendum on president obamas record or on his congress future . Has it been a defense of incumbency . Check out democratic senator mark pryors approach. Its why ive worked across party lines and tried to take the best from both parties to get things done for arkansas. Neither party is always right. Im mark pryor and i approved this message because ill work with anyone to make arkansas better. Gwen or is the problem washington itself . Georgia Republican Senate candidate david perdue makes this pitch. If youre as frustrated as i am by the dysfunction in washington and believe we can do better, then id really appreciate your trust and your vote. Gwen lets start by talking about the voters. Are they motivated or throwing up their hands in disgust . Karen . Voters have other than the strong partisans of each party, we always see a midterm dropoff of voters, particularly among young people, among minorities, among single women who of all democratic constituencies. But despite the ease with which people can vote in so many states in, colorado by mail now, that turnout is going to be pretty darn low this year at the polls. Gwen i know youve been traveling all over the country. We all have. Im curious when you talk to voters if you get that from them, that i get from them, which is exasperation and the hate of television ads, and then they recite them to you. They do, because they are happening so often. The best sense is to sit in a hotel room and watch all these ads. Its a 4 billion campaign. At this point so many people have voted, those ads are still running. They should be getting a discount because its kind of a ripoff. Voters are angry at everything, at government, at incumbents. Thats one thing that ill be watching on election night. Even republicans who should be safe. All incumbents are a little bit anxious, because even someone like Mitch Mcconnell, who looks to be doing ok in the polls right now, hes not a beloved figure. So the incumbency is not a good thing, even on the republican side this year. Gwen amy . Well, there is a sense that it doesnt matter so much about votes. The voting is not that important in the sense because its not going to make a lot of difference. They dont really care whos in charge in congress, but they know whether they put a democrat or a republican in charge they dont expect to see much change. So thats the deeper frustration. When you listen to voters and what are they talking about . Theyre talking about the economy, concerns about their kids education, their own retirement, and nobodys really talking about that. These ads are much more about talking to the base, so if youre republican youre going to hear a lot of antiobamacare messages. If youre a democrat youll hear a lot of social issues that you like, but youre not talking about the core issues that the majority of people in this country care about. Gwen molly, arent these candidates, especially these tight senate races, arent they counting on motivation, enthusiasm, getting their base to turn out . Doesnt that require some sort of engagement . Well, you can engage people by getting them excited about you or get them afraid of the other guy and thats what a lot of these candidates are choosing to do and what a lot of the outside groups are doing with these overwhelmingly negative constant billions of dollars of tv ads. I do think i feel like a bit of a broken record talking about this being an antiwashington election because i feel like weve been saying that every year since maybe 2008. And i guess its us, its washington. We havent gotten any better, so the voters keep casting that antiwashington vote. But at the same time, we all covered 20 so. That was a madasheck election. That was people really bringing out the pitchforks. I dont get that sense of a real tide of anger, especially anger in one particular direction that 2010 was. So thats why, as you said earlier in the show, it seems like its going to be a little more of a splash than a tidal wave. Gwen mad as heck. Thats so sweet. Well, as you can see everyone tonight has been on the road, reading the polls, talking to candidates and the voters to try to get a handle on those tea leaves. Heres part of my conversation last weekend in North Carolina with the two candidates involved in the most Expensive Senate race ever. Republican thom tillis and incumbent democrat kay hagan. Gwen why is it, so close to election day, things are so tight . All these ads, 100 million worth . You know, North Carolina is this purple state, but i feel very good about where we are. I do think this outofstate money is something im very disappointed in, but its because of the Supreme Court gwen but you decision. Gwen benefited from it as well . You know, i think no matter who gives money, it should be disclosed and it should be transparent. Gwen someone has quoted as saying that a persuadable voter at this stage is as hard to find as a pink unicorn. I do believe there are persuadable voters out there. I believe that there are voters on election day who will go into the ballot box and make a decision at game time. Gwen well, its game time. What do you all see . I mean, i think that republicans have this air of confidence about them and they know that theyre probably likely to pick up the six seats that they need. Thats the number we have to keep in mind on election night, six seats. But they dont know exactly where theyre going to come from. They generally know where the three will come from, montana, south dakota, but even this close to election day millions have vote and theyre still not sure. You meant west virginia. West virginia, exactly. I was going to say, did something happen in virginia . Republicans are scarred by what happened in 2010 and 2012, the Senate Republicans at least. Theyre not quite sure its going to happen. There are so many teats in play, it would be hard to imagine them not finding three seats elsewhere. Theres one factor thats a little bit different in North Carolina. Kay hagan, the incumbent senator, is likely to be hit by this antiwashington sentiment. But thom tillis is the speaker of the house and people in North Carolina arent exactly wild about the legislatures performance either. So theyre both being hit by a little bit of an antiincumbent sentiment. And another issue in North Carolina is there is no other state in the country, at least in the last president ial election, where young people and old peoples voting patterns were so different, with the young going one way and the old going the other. Young people are going to be the hardest ones to get out, and those are the constituents, particularly in North Carolina, democrats need. Gwen thats part of the problem, isnt it, molly, the Obama Coalition that helped him win North Carolina in 2008 and around the country, were africans, latinos, young women, single women and they dont seem to be that moved this year. I think that voters sort of correctly perceive that not a lot is at stake in this election. The candidates are always going to say this is the most important election in our lifetime, but thats not true. No matter what happens, even if republicans take the senate, we had divided government before. We will have divided government after the election. Obama will still be in the white house. The republicans, barring some kind of freak occurrence, will still have the house of representatives. So whether the senate is in republican hands, it will make some difference but its not going to change the basic fact of life and it probably wont undo the partisanship that has kept that stalemate going for the last six years. So i think its hard for candidates to convince voters that theres a reason for them to come out to vote. And, you know, democrats have this ground game that they are really banking on, that theyve spent a lot of money on this year. You cant turn people out to vote who just dont want to vote. Gwen go ahead. That is, i think, the key to all of this. Republicans said to me you cant win on turnout when youre losing on message. And the message to the Democratic Base is one of, youve got to turn out. Its so important. You came out for obama. Thats fine, except for this is a base that is soured on the president , much more so than they were in 2012. I mean, i went and compared the numbers. North carolina, colorado, iowa, the really important races where the president he didnt win North Carolina, but won the other two. His numbers among all of those groups you just talked about, except africanamericans have gone down tremendously. Single women, latinos, young people, its dramatic in terms of their Approval Rating of the president. So trying to motivate people who feel disappointed and i think mollys right, its not a pitchfork kind of election, its a passive election, like meh. Gwen lets walk through some of the states. Georgia, as far as we know friday night, things are still dead even. No doubt about it. Perhaps even with a slight edge for the democrat there. Michelle nunn. Michelle nunn. The challenge or the complication is theres a runoff election. And the winner has to get 50 plus one, otherwise it goes for two more months, the first tuesday in january. Gwen theres a libertarian candidate. And that complicates it. So republicans are absolutely worried about not winning it on the first election. But the second goround, well see. Gwen colorado . I was just in colorado. Ill take this one. Colorado is a really interesting state because it went for obama twice and because democrats were starting to feel confident that they had a Permanent Coalition there. Over the last decade theyve reengineered the state in a democratic direction. But now we seem to be seeing a little bit of a backlash to that and republicans getting wise to a lot of the tactics democrats have used. Corey gardner, who a lot of democrats believe is maybe the republicans strongest of all the Senate Candidates cycle, a congressman, a republican, who despite having taken conservative positions, is able to sell himself as this sort of sunny, work across the aisle moderate, taking on the incumbent. Mark udahl, who never expected to be in trouble. The fact that were talking about states like colorado on election eve tells you what kind of year this is. Gwen i was in colorado and so were you, karen. One of the interesting things is that this is a perfect example of what youre talking about, this being a more moderating kind of election. This is not a Tea Party Election at all, for among the republicans doing well. Corey gardner is mr. , hey, everything is fine here and hes not the only example. But mark udall the cycle thats worked for democrats in colorado has been social issues, with reproductive issues being sort of the silver bullet. He was essentially trying this play again. Corey gardner saw it coming, got sort of wiggled out of his support in the past for the personhood amendment. I also think that theres a sense among colorado voters of, you know, theres so many times you can run this play and make these arguments before people just quit hearing it. Gwen arkansas, werent you in arkansas . I was in arkansas. That is a place where mark pryor has the family name that is a golden name of politics. It just may not be enough this year. The democratic the republican winds are blowing so hard its going to blow out the democratic traditions looks like. But mark pryor i was out there a week and a half ago and bill clinton was at his side. And bill clinton is going back this weekend. Hes going all across this state. Im not sure thats going to work. But arkansas is a changing state. In 2008 there were still four democratic members of congress, i believe. The legislature was democratic. Its just a change in southern states, so its hard for him. Gwen my favorite two things about that race is tom cotton, the republican, the veteran, who also comes across as not being very hardedged. He has an ad with he and his wife and a puppy in his lap. Love that ad. The other is a story that was in the Washington Post about david pryor campaigning for his son, going to all the small towns in arkansas and saying he and his wife was the antiques road show. I loved it, i loved it. Kentucky. Kentucky feels a little anticlimactic right now. This was supposed to be the marquee race, right . Can Mitch Mcconnell hold on . Hes as unpopular in the state as barack obama. Even though its a republican state. And alison grimes, the democrat. You know, really running a very strong campaign, raising tons of money, making it trying to make it a referendum on Mitch Mcconnell. He, of course, making a referendum on obama. But you see the reason that Mitch Mcconnell has been able to win in kentucky. And he wins by narrow margins every time. But he is a dogged, smart, aggressive campaigner and it has shofpblet hes opened up something of late. You know, i think this is whats important, too. You made the point about this isnt really a Tea Party Election and this to me is fascinating. Seeing how these candidates, even though theyre very conservative, tom cotton, Corey Gardner in colorado very conservative. But theyve been running as more moderate candidates. What happens when they come to washington and they have to govern . The base is expecting them to be conservatives. Theyve seen them campaign more moderately. Its going to be very i think its going to be very challenging. Max lets talk about gwen lets talk about iowa. The candidate there wanes she is run ago strong race against braley. She was endorsed by sarah palin, but also mitt romney. This is what republicans have done this year. Jeff talked about how republicans fell short in 2010 and 2012. Democrats thought they won those elections. But it was the case that republicans lost them. This year republicans have not nominated a todd aiken or a sharon engle. They have nominated candidates like johnnyy ernst who were conservative enough to satisfy the base, but could pivot through the general election and sound like normal people and not say things that got them in trouble and would be played over and over again in a campaign ad. So you have these sort of sputtering democrats on the sidelines saying, no, no, i swear shes an extremist. Doesnt sound that way. Voters dont perceive her that way. She seems like what she is, which is a smalltown iowa girl from a farm, lets not forget the hogs. How can anyone forget the hogs . Its interesting. In the primary she talked about castrating the hogs. In the general election she has another commercial about the hogs, but its about washington being a mess. Theres no testicles this time. Can you say that on pbs . I might get bleeped. In iowa theres a strong governors race and democrats across the board are getting sort of sucked in by that. But shes the one to watch. Dont forget there were a couple of big gaffs by the democratic nominee, congressman bruce braley, who said dismissive things about the senior senator, chuck grassley, being just a farmer, being not even a lawyer and running the judiciary committee. Gwen lets talk about kansas. The republicans have figured out a way to get everybody in, and on behalf of pat roberts, as has i guess sarah palin has been there, but bob dole has been there. Everybody has been campaigning for him, against the independent, gregorman, because . Because the republicans have sounded the fivealarm fire and brought in every single republican. This shouldnt be happening. But pat roberts was asleep at the switch again, he almost got taken by surprise. So they are trying to get every sort of faction of the republican party, the moderates, the conservatives, the christian conservatives out and fired up about this. But im not sure its been a fascinating story. Greg orman may have peaked a little soon, well see. It takes a Campaign Organization to get voters out and hes kind of out there on his own. And kansas is a fight its an intraparty fight. This is not a fight between the two parties. This is kansas and it has a long tradition of theyre very conservative part of the party and the moderate part of the party and this is where greg orman has done very well with the suburbs, and he appeals to the moderate republican who is frustrated, and the governor is also very conservative. You know, that is where roberts needs to bring in a bob dole, because he needs to get those oldline republicans back. He doesnt need the sarah palin republicans now. He needed them earlier. Also worth mentioning, the democrat in that race dropped out. Gwen thats true. Or was edged out. Gwen we have a couple more to hit before we run out of time. Louisiana, where there may also be a runoff. There is going to be a runoff. Everybody make your reservation. So we can all have great dinners there. This is a state where you need 50 on election night. There are three candidates in that race, which means its more likely than not that nobody gets 50 . So we go into early december, we have a runoff. Its going to be very tough for mary landrieu. That state has changed dramatically over the last 10 or 12 years. Its really its not enough just to turn out new orleans. For a democrat to win there, you have to do better among white voters there, and thats going to be tough. Gwen we might also be up late waiting on alaska. Thats also a late, tight race. Thats because the democrats they think their ground game is going to save them in that state. So they have put a Field Operation into the most remote native villages. So theyre going to be sort of going out and getting those votes back. Gwen is this an issue of free election in the end, or does it all come back to getting people to turn out, getting your people to turn out, rather than obamacare or the economy or education or any of the issues even womens issues that we keep hearing people talk about . Its somewhat of a free election, but it certainly started as an obamacare election. Now you look at the ads. It is not as much of an issue as they thought it would be. As molly said before, its sort of a fear election, too. Something like a Million Dollars has been spent just on ebola ads alone. Its not really i dont hear much policy discussions about isis right now, and those are the issues, or hardly any discussions about what the next congress is facing, like the debt ceiling. So not issuefree, but certainly not issueheavy. Gwen i missed new hampshire, by the way. Jeanne shaheen and mark scott brown. Well, thats another race, just the fact that we are talking about it tells you how favorable the climate has turned for republicans. Because when scott brown first announced, he looked like a long shot. Hes a carpetbagger from massachusetts. Jeanne shaheen hasnt done anything to tick anybody off. All of the analysis, including mine at the time was, well, maybe if theres a wave he has a chance to ride it. This is how close we are to some kind of wave, he is now within Single Digits of jeanne shaheen. Hes still behind. But the fact that hes giving her a scare is the symptom of the fact that even in blue states, even in states like new hampshire, where obama won twice, democrats are still having trouble and president obama is not welcomed. This issue there is an issue in this election and it is president obama. And his job performance. And also, just the whole wave after wave of bad news from the border, from isis, from ebola that has hit max i want to ask gwen you reached out to Newt Gingrich and became speaker of the house in 2005 because the 2004 election took everybody by surprise. And you asked him, does it feel like that . He says it feels maybe like a rising tide. Lets face it, he said all the low fruits been picked here by the republicans. He says the thing to watch is that the number of state legislatures that are going to flip this time to the republicans. He said, which is an extraordinary amount of power over redistricting, over building a field team of future candidates, that he thinks that may be the real significance of this election. Gwen there are a lot of governors races which could flip the other way. We talked about it a lot last week. But when you start looking around the country that is going to affect peoples lives more. Its interesting how many governors are in trouble. Not just republican governors who were elected in 2010. Thats a lot of them, people like scott walker in wisconsin, rick snyder in michigan, rick scott in florida, paula page in maine. They came in on a republican wave. So in a year thats not as favorable to republicans as 2010, theres a lot of democratic governors in peril as well. Pat quinn in illinois. Dan malloy in connecticut, who is in a very, very tight race, in connecticut, one of the bluest states in the country. So i think that is another symptom of just the mood the antiincumbency mood, people not being satisfied that they have leadership and wanting to kick out whoever is in charge. Gwen well, there is so much to talk about come tuesday night. Well all be sitting on the edge of our seats. Whether people think its going to affect their lives, these elections always give us an insight into where america is, not necessarily where the candidates are, but where americans are. Thats always worth watching and voting, thank you, everybody of the we have to go now, but as always, the conversation will continue online on the Washington Week webcast extra, where well keep talking politics. But pivot to 2016. Yes, its time. That streams live at 8 30 p. M. Eastern and you can find it all week long at pbs. Org washingtonweek. Tuesday night join Judy Woodruff and me and amy here for a full night of Elections Coverage onair and online, including a results special at 11 00 p. M. Eastern. And now, that, of course, well be making our plans for dinner in louisiana. Well see you here next week on Washington Week. Good night. Corporate funding for Washington Week is provided by the future of surgery is within sight. Our research is studying how realtime multimodality surgery can help precision and outcomes. Brigham womens hospital. It all starts here. Additional Corporate Funding for Washington Week is provided by prudential. Additional funding is provided by the annenberg foundation, the corporation for public broadcasting, and by contributions to pbs stations from viewers like you. Thank you. Want to make it my mission to go around the world explained this beautiful art form. I spoke at the opening of the 2014 show. There were so many lines of andection between that show 1821, for my book ends area not only was there a group of strike to express themselves, they did it in a city that was inspiratiol