Welcome. Im bob abernathy. Its good to have you with us for our annual look ahead at what the top religion and ethics stories of the new year may be. E. J. Dionne is here. Hes a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution in california, a columnist for the washington post, and professor at georgetown university. Kevin eckstrom is the Religion News service, and kim lawton is the managing editor of this program. Welcome to you all. Lets begin with that terrible terrible situation in the middle east with isis and whether it can be brought under control or defeated. Who wants to predict anything there . Its one of the Big Questions the International Community is going to have to continue struggling with in this year is how to stop isis. And for the u. S. , unfortunately, that means i think some very difficult political debates about increasing the military operations there. And its interesting that in the past weve had some more debates about moral implications of u. S. Actions and i dont think we have as much this time around. But certainly there isnt a lot of support for more boots on the ground in that part of the world. And so i think the question is, do we have a responsibility to protect those people . Muslims, christians, religious minorities who are just being decimated. Do we have a responsibility to do something, if so, what does that mean . And can we even if we have a responsibility, can we be effective . Well the question is whether we can push back isis or whether were starting out trying to contain them and prevent them from taking more territory. I mean at least in the initial phase, they were on a real roll taking over large amounts of territory, both in iraq and in syria. We seem to have stopped that advance. The question is whether we can push them back. The striking thing is isis has no friends in the middle east. I believe it was the economist had this great chart where they said, whos friends and whos enemies with whom . Every regime, regimes we like regimes we dont like really does not want isis to take off in the middle east. And so i think one of the issues will be what will our not only our allies but what will our adversaries do . Its odd, we or the same side as the iranians, for example in this fight. We are each doing pieces of the military effort. Can other muslims in the middle east prevail over this strange thats part of the problem was this whole isis story. This is as much an interreligious or extra religious fight as it is a political one. These are muslims who have no problem killing other muslims because theyre deemed at heretics or not pure enough or whatever. In many ways yes this is a challenge for the International Community to figure out what to do here and how to contain them. Its also a struggle for islam. For islam to find a way to say, you know, in whatever capacity it can, that this is not allowable islamic behavior. What isis is doing is not sanctioned. The problem is islam doesnt have a pope, it doesnt have a council of imams or something that can issue a declarative ruling like that. So i dont know what the answer is but islam itself needs to come to terms with what isis and is what it claims to be. The other problem were facing this year is what to do with all the victims refugees who have been pouring out of the places both in syria and iraq where isis and the ongoing civil war in syria are just killing their communities. And unfortunately the humanitarian groups are hare operatingoff operating at top capacity. Some funding programs are running out of money. People are getting tired of donating to these causes, yet the needs are still there. All signs are theyre only going to increase. Thats going to be a big problem for the world to face. Let me turn your attention a little bit to the situation between israel and its neighbors. There are going to be some tough decisions coming up there about what kind of state, for instance the israels want to be. Is it a homeland for all jews is it a democracy . The people of israel are going to have a big say in that. They have an election coming up. You talk about consequential choices. This is going to be a very consequential election for israelis. There are parties in the election that want to pursue a Peace Process with the palestinians actively. There is the argument that you suggest, should it be declared a jewish state in a way that other populations in israel particularly arabs and muslims, will regard as exclusionary . This is a very divisive debate among jews of israel, many of whom are insistent that israels strength is as a democracy. So i think one of the mostwatched elections in the world will be the one that were about to see soon in israel. It has implications for religious groups here in the u. S. As well. Certainly in the jewish community. We see strong support for israel, of course but theres growing debate over how supportive to be if israel lurches very far to the right. And among american jews, this is sort of a tricky controversial question. Also in the christian communities, some groups very, very proisrael. Not concerned about israel becomes more to the right. But other groups, other christian groups concerned about the palestinian situation with the palestinians seeking statehood before the u. N. Its a brew for a lot of religiouslytinged tension. Meanwhile, theres been a lot of violation of holy sites. The holy sites are always sort of ground zero for them. In terms of tension points and everybody arguing over the holy sites, especially the temple mound, the noble sanctuary for muslims, and that site is going to continue to be a point of great tension. E. J. , pope francis is coming to the United States in september. Going to philadelphia for a conference there. Are we going to be seeing any changes in the teachings of the Catholic Church in this year to come . Im not sure were going to see changes in teaching, but were already seeing i think well see more of a change in emphasis. One of the most important if you will, political moves in the church last year was the appointment of blais supich as archbishop of chicago. Hes very much a social Justice Catholic in the tradition of an earlier archbishop of chicago, Cardinal Bernadin. I think that gave a signal to the American Church where pope francis would like the church to move. And its not a question of the church abandoning its opposition to abortion its actually going back to where in some ways where the church was 20 or 30 years ago where Cardinal Bernadin used to talk about a seamless garment that involved a commitment to life across the board, including a commitment to the poor, opposition to the Death Penalty commitment to peace. And that seems to be the direction hes push. Its going to be very interesting because there are divisions among american catholics. There are some of the more conservative bishops who have openly expressed some unease with the direction that pope francis is taking. I doubt those will come to the surface when hes here. I expect everybody is going to welcome him. But its sure going to be interesting to see how that unease on the right of the church is expressed. The thing to remember is, last october, 2014 we had this big raucous debate at the vatican over issues of the family and cohabitation and homosexuality. That was actually only round one. Round two is coming up in october of 2015. And thats where the actual decisions may be made. Now, as e. J. Said, theres not going to be a change in teaching, necessarily. But how the church approaches gay and lesbian couples for example. That may there may be some there there come out of that meeting. So that will be i think a key thing to watch is how the church navigates this tricky line between holding to its teaching, because most catholics say the church cant change its teaching. How do you adapt that for a modern time where the society is moving at a much quicker pace than where the church is . In one theres an old joke among catholic theologians, whenever the church alters its teaching a little bit the statement always begins as the church has always taught. Thats just it. People can find that when they look back. One area i am going to watch where there may be some change is this question of whether catholics were divorced and remarried will be eligible to take communion, which they currently cannot. Theres a lot of support from top church leaders, very public support for making some changes in this area. And so thats one thing im going to be watching. If that does change that will be really huge. And its a possibility. And the language used about gays and lesbians. The church is not going to endorse gay marriage, but the language in one of the early documents at the first round was very open. It was dialed back a little bit. But language like that, even if it doesnt change doctrine sends a very powerful signal. And its going to be interesting to see exactly what signal the church wants to send. And this year 2015, is going to be the preelection year and the new congress. What do you see, e. J. . We always seem to be in the preelection year. Every year is a preelection year. For political junkies like me, thats just fine. You know, i think, first of all, the fight on the republican side is going to be fascinating. Because and it will complicate what happens in congress. Because you have a number of president ial candidates in the Congress Rand Paul ted cruz among others. And then you will have sort of i think a real fight over the future of the party. One of the interesting things is for the last year or so the religious conservatives who are always a very important part of the republican primaries and part of the republican base, their issues have not been front and Center Nearly as much as the Economic Issues have been. And i think its going to be very interesting to see, how do the religious conservatives push their agenda to the front again . Does Mike Huckabee make another run for the presidency and what comes out of that . Well and it will be interesting to see if their issues, the religious conservatives issues, remain gay marriage and abortion. Last year we saw a broadening of some of the agenda even among conservatives. You saw religious conservative evangelicals supporting Immigration Reform and getting behind that issue getting involved in that issue in a way that perhaps they hadnt in the past. You saw them coming out and talking about race issues in a way that perhaps they havent in the past. Now i dont know if thats going to translate into a different political agenda, but thats something im going to be watching. Now, the republicans, though, are going to have to figure out how they keep those voters engaged. I mean, they have to get those guys mobilized and get to the polls. And they do vote. And that makes a difference. But how are they going to try to mobilize those folks . Youre quite right to raise immigration because that is going to be a huge issue this year. Both because of president obamas executive order, but again does congress decide to do something . Its really striking how broad the coalition is among churches in favor of some kind of Immigration Reform. Do you see that, kevin . Yeah i think one of the guys to watch is jeb bush who at the end of 2014 at least seemed to be taking active steps towards exploring this run for the presidency. Hes been fairly proImmigration Reform. Theres not a whole lot of difference between him and the Obama White House in terms of needing to do something to fix this system. And hes bucking up against a large part of his party there. But the republicans i think need to be very careful about immigration, not only to avoid angering hispanics as being seen as antiimmigrant, but also the catholic bishops a lot of evangelical leaders jewish leaders, are very much promight have Immigration Reform. Republicans have a delicate dance to do in terms of not angering their own base, also not angering the folks who are really in favor of this. On the democratic side, hillary clinton, does she get an opponent . I think youre going to see a big and debate on the democratic side about economics and where the party wants to be. Elizabeth warren is representative and a spokesperson for a kind of rising populist wing in the party and i think that will be a very interesting discussion matched up against the republicans. She did a pretty active faithbased outreach during the last Campaign Season and aggressively went after fadebased voters. So that may bring more religious dimensions into this upcoming election. And the other group i wanted to mention are the rising number of people who say theyre religiously unaffiliated. They are extremely liberal, they vote extremely democratic but they dont get out to vote in big numbers. Especially a lot of young people. So are the democrats going to be trying to reach out to them and does that push them a little more on a more lib rather secular note . They tend to vote more in a president ial year but i think democrats have the most complicated religious coalition. They include in a sense the least religious people, who are these more secular folks. They also include africanamericans, who by all measures are among the most religious people in our country. So they always have a complicated problem or perhaps opportunity on that front. Are there things coming up in all this that are of particular importance to religious folks in the churches . I think immigration is going to be an important issue. And i think precisely because a lot of conservative religious leaders are also very close to the latino community. After all there are a lot of religiously conservative latinos. I think they could have more influence on the debate because they kind of transcend some of our usual political divisions. And i think this inequality debate is going to continue in our country. And you know the churches have always been important to debates about social justice in our country and i think they are going to play a big role in that debate as well. Youre talking about race there, youre talking about all of the mobilization we saw around issues surrounding, yeah, inequity, racial injustice. To what extent will that become a preelection issue will be interesting to watch. Whats coming up in the way of Important Supreme Court decisions . So the one that im going to be watching, theres two, actually. One is the case that was argued in late 2014 about muslims, prisoners and the rights to grow beards. Its not just about muslim prisoners, its about whether or not the state can come in and impose religious restrictions on inmates. And thats going to be decided in 2015. The other case that im really looking forward to actually is the Supreme Court decision about whether or not abercrombie and fitch, the retailer could tell a muslim employee not to wear hijab on the job. So this young woman applied to work at abercrombie and fitch, she showed up in hijab, she was not given the job. The Supreme Court will hear her case in the spring and probably rule by june. So it will be worth watching. This issue of religious right to work so is fascinating. Because it crisscrosses a lot of the usual divides where you have quite religious quite conservative, religious people on the one side. But a lot of civil libertarians and friends of labor on that same side. Theyre all coming together. Defending rights of employees. I agree that is a fascinating case. The other thing that may end up at the Supreme Court is gay marriage. Which is obviously a very hotbutton issue. And its very likely the court will pick up theyll at least have an opportunity to take up a case because the lower courts have been moving the cases forward. And so this could be a very pivotal year on that issue. That of course has a lot of religious implications. Many faith groups have been supporting gay marriage as a matter of justice and equality, but others oppose it, especially those who consider homosexuality a sin. And so where they will end up in all of this, how they will hang on to those beliefs, especially when you may have clashing rights. Civil rights of gays, lesbians, transgendered people, and religious rights. And people who want to hold on to those religious rights. But if that means discriminating against somebody else how do you work that out in a plural Pluralistic Society . The other case to watch, a series of cases dealing with the contraception mandate. In 2014, the Supreme Court decided that hobby lobby had the right to not give contraception to all of its employees if it didnt want to. But the court didnt really address the Supreme Court didnt address the larger question of religious groups. So theres groups of nuns and religious colleges and universities. And some activist groups who are all involved. Theyre still bound by the mandate, the contraception mandate. And their cases havent reached the Supreme Court but its very likely that the Supreme Court will have to do something about that this year. And the hardest cases are the cases where rights are in conflict. And so many of these raise those questions. The rights that religious groups have and the rights that individuals have. And i think were going to see clashes between these this year and for some time to come. Absolutely. Theres a big u. N. Meeting coming up in paris, i think, in this year, about climate change. Have any of you been following that . Do you know what the likely outcome of that is . Well, i think on the faith end youve seen more and more faith groups involved in environmental issues. Its been a growing movement of people who call it creation care. And theyve been pushing for more International Restrictions to protect the environment especially to stop climate change. So theyre going to be active, you know, lobbying for more restrictions. Because they see this as a moral issue. And i think, to go back to the pope and the vatican, i think the pope has been moving toward a more and more green position. And that was actually true of Pope Benedict before him. And i remember catholic friends saying he heard a report saying, gee theyre so green theyre wearing green vestments. In fact, green was the color of the vestments at that service. But its a had nothing to do with the environment yet i think it was sort of symbolic of a shift thats happening in the Catholic Church. Although maybe its not a shift at all, st. Francis of assisi was the original friend of the environment. This pope, who took his name after francis, expected to issue his first encyclical on the environment, probably in 2015, definitely worth watching. As you look ahead what story dozen you particularly want to watch . It might be off the beaten track just a little bit. Well, one election, since were talking about the election, im going to be looking at is the Episcopal Church will be electing its new presiding bishop. They made history electing the first woman, katherine jefford shory, she will not be running again. Theres a lot of speculation after the first woman they might try to have the first minority or ethnic presiding bishop. So its more of a symbolic gesture i think than anything of real substance in terms of the race or gender of the presiding bishop but it does Say Something about the church of the establishment and who they put in the top position. So worth watching. Im sort of it feels like we may be seeing a new civil rights movement. And we sort of forget how central the churches were in the original civil rights movement. Because of what happened on Staten Island and in ferguson. Because of the efforts to change the sentencing laws so that africanamerican men in particular dont get sent to prison for endless periods of time. I think theres a real bubbling up. Obviously its happening within africanAmerican Churches but youre seeing some of this happen in white and latino churches. And i think this may be a year where we see something i dont think it will be a surprise, but certainly a surprise that its going to make a comeback again. What about people, kim, youre watching in the coming year . Im going to be watching some of the people in the evangelical movement, especially younger evangelicals who are talking about issues surrounding homosexuality. And youre seeing some interesting new conversations among evangelicals who are among the most opposed to gay marriage, who are among the most strongest saying homosexuality is a sin. But youre seeing growing debate within that community and youre seeing some highprofile people changing their position. And so im going to be watching some of those, especially the younger ones. I have asked this before. Im interested in any predictions or sense you might have about how the churches, how the whole idea of worship and belief is doing. There are things coming up in this year that might have an effect on all that . Well, i think, you know religion and faith is doing just fine. In some people are still going to church on sundays they still go to the synagogue on friday nights. Religion remains important to peoples lives. I dont think theres much question there. I think the question and the challenge for religious establishments is a question of authority. So there was a really interesting survey that came out in the middle of 2014 that talked about the bible. And peoples views about what the bible is. And a larger than ever before number of people described it as a book of fables and stories. It was not the authoritative word of god anymore. So there are i think challenges to the authority of institutional religion. And i think you see that in the Catholic Church by people saying, well, ill take this but im not going to i disagree on that issue. So religious institutions i think are in a more competitive marketplace to get peoples attention and claims on their identity. But i think, you know, rank and file, its doing okay on a sunday morning. And faeshl in an era when people, especially younger people, dont want to affiliate. Its that they may have religious impulses they may have spiritual impulses. May be very specific about god jesus, allah, or maybe more general. They dont like to affiliate with an official institution, but how are they working out that spirituality in this new era . Our time is up. Im sorry to say. Thanks to e. J. Dionne, kevin eckstrom, and kim lawton. Im bob abernathy. From all of us, every good wish for a wonderful new year. Major funding for religion and ethics news weekly is provided by the lily endowment. Dedicated to its founders interest in religion, community development, and education. Additional funding also provided by mutual of america. Designing customized, individual, and Group Retirement products. Thats why were your environment company. You. Rose welcome to the program. Im charlie rose. This is a special new years edition of charlie rose the week. Just ahead, art, henri matisse, and jeff koons. I always wanted to make work that people would not feel that they had to bring anything to the table other than who they are and who they are up to that moment. That theyre perfect, that, you know, its the art is about them. Its about their possibility and to empower people. Rose well have those stories and more on what happened and what might happen