>> egypt in crisis, the standoff between protesters and the mubarak regime in the seventh day. they refuse to go away. pro-democracy activists say they will put a million people on the streets tomorrow. hello, and welcome to "gmt." also on the program. from the shadows into front row politics we have a profile of the former spy chief appointed egypt's vice president. prayers for the nation's favorite father, hundreds gathered to wish nelson mandela is speedy recovery. >> i'm george alagiah live from cairo. you can look over that -- there and you can see liberation square, a place where seven days thousands of protesters had gathered, pushing through their claims of reform for the mubarak regime. tomorrow they are putting together a million man march. whether they can do that -- it remains to be seen. those numbers have not been seen in the last week. they are up against a mubarak regime that has had 30 years and which to enforce and of " -- impose its authoritarian rule. the next 48 hours could be crucial. can they put together those numbers? and if they do, what will the reaction be? >> this is of the square in cairo, also known as liberation square, a focus for protests. people have been here for six days. more recently, day and night. now, some are calling for a general strike and civil disobedience. away from the square, egyptian police are greeted with mixed reactions. a handshake here but not everyone is so pleased to see them. they are not trusted by all egyptians. some believe they are violent and on the side of president mubarak. as -- should deal with the disruption to their country, tourists from all over the world are trying to get home. but patience is key. they wait for flights and politicians wait for some kind of resolution. >> what it is time for is recognizing that this situation has gotten -- it will end up somewhere. where it is best to end up is in free elections at a certain point in time. but in the meantime, to get a managed process of change. >> politicians may want an orderly transition, but how long will it be before order returns to the streets of cairo and other egyptian cities? bbc news. >> dimension to the square and a little while ago. we can join our correspondent who is there. give us a picture of what is happening there and what kind of numbers you are seeing? >> the square has been gradually filling up during the day. it started off with a hard core of about 1000 that spent the night in a dark corner. people have been coming and, army tanks are ringing the square but the troops are very relaxed. they are letting people come and go as they wish. there are helicopters. you may hear them circling overhead. but there is no real sense of menace among the crowd. i have been talking to a lot of them. they are determined to stay there until mr. mubarak goes. the focus is mainly on this big march they are -- the armed with to get million people. these people are coming to cairo from all over the country and buses. but they suspect there will be a tense to obstruct the buses from getting here. i think the main focus of tomorrow, a way of carrying the torch because of fears that it may run out of steam. >> you mentioned that ring of tanks around the square. i saw that myself as i was coming over from that direction over here. they are being allowed through by the army? >> absolutely, yes. the relationship between the army and the people are different. people are talking to the soldiers. they are posing in front of the tanks to have their photos taken. pretty much of the tanks have graffiti on them saying mubarak down although he is chief of the armed forces. the relations are such that it would be very surprising to see somebody -- trying to disperse people by force. that is not the climate at all. the climate is one almost, bordering on carnival. people are singing, chanting. almost kind of a bank holiday atmosphere but, of course, with a very grim political surrounded. some people saying they are willing to give their -- give their lives for a new egypt. >> all right, jim, thank you very much. events here in cairo, in egypt, are being watched throughout this region where there are plenty of leaders who are wondering what is this assumption they will likely have to confront in the next few days and weeks. of course, it is not just in the region but in capitals around the world. egypt has been pivotal to the peace process. and it matters to the european union. emily buchanan looks at the international reaction. >> cairo's city center, filled with a heavy army presence. soldiers watching and waiting. but not preventing the protests nor the looting. vigilantes' erected makeshift barricades to protect their neighborhoods. a military spokesman made an appeal for calm. warning people not to attack public or private properties. into this turmoil arrive mohamed elbaradei, more known for his negotiating skills that for managing a revolution. he is now calling for the egyptian president to stand down immediately. >> first, he has to go. second, we have to have a government of national salvation in coordination with the army. there will be a transitional period where we will prepare for a free and fair election, a new constitution, and then move onto democracy. >> falling in is the grass-roots opposition group the muslim brotherhood. they're out in force over the weekend to attend the funeral of one of their members killed in the process. outside of the egypt, the call for democracy and free and fair elections are getting louder. but there is also caution and washington and european capitals. they want to be on the right side of history but they know it could be dangerous to precipitate a political backing. they see a possible end to mr. mubarak possible but at the same time they don't want to be seen to be pushing him out. this seemingly virtual silence from other countries in the league -- middle east but all seem to be watching it carefully. the u.s. state department is no longer calling egypt peace stable government and is now pressing for transition. >> it must take the concrete step that many of us have been urging for democratic and economic reform. i think that is the best way for egypt to navigate through this without the unforeseen consequences that could further undermine the legitimate aspirations of the egyptian people. >> in the u.k., the prime minister is also arguing for change. >> i think they must go down the path of reform and not repression. i have spoken to president mubarak, and i had a conversation with president obama and they very much agreed we want the response of the egyptian government to be that they want a proper orderly transition to a more democratic situation with greater rights, greater freedom of a greater role of law. meanwhile, israel is nervous about any change to the status quo. prime minister netanyahu, in his first public statement about the issue, says the country that a 30-year-old peace agreement with egypt must be preserved. back in cairo, violence and uncertainty pervades. the change in the air but no one can predict where it is going to lead. emily buchanan, bbc news. >> the most tangible change that president hosni mubarak has made sense these protests started is, of course, to appoint a vice-president, omar suleiman . we don't know much about omar suleiman. we know he was involved in the middle east peace process and we know that he was a former intelligence chief. beyond that, very little is known. our correspondent is looking at what his role might be in the next few days and weeks. >> omar suleiman taking the vice-presidential oath of office. an intelligence chief now tasked with ensuring the survival of the government. his reputation as one of a behind-the-scenes fix a for the president. not as an advocate of transparency and reform. he is 73 years old and joined the army in 1954, fought two wars with israel and has headed egypt's powerful intelligence agency for the past 18 years. an assassination attempt in 1995 on hosni mubarak in ethiopia sealed a bond of trust between the two men. omar suleiman was credited with saving the president's life. he went on to become one of the middle east's most influential figures. described as calm and modest, he has been a key mediator between the israelis and palestinians and the confidence of israeli leaders. there, and among western and arab allies, he is seen as a safe pair of pants skilled. together with mubarak apostate son he has long been tipped as a possible successor. gamal is out of the running. omar suleiman has to prove to the protesters he is not tainted with the same brush. his challenge is one of transitional leader, but winning trust here may be his toughest task yet. bbc news. >> we will be continuing to watch events here in egypt on bbc news, but for now, it is back to you in london. >> thank you very much, indeed. hundreds of worshipers gathered in a church in the south african township of soweto on sunday to pray for the health of mail -- nelson mandela. the 92-year-old former president was admitted to hospital last week for a respiratory illness. he is now receiving medical treatment at home. >> pereira's for the swift recovery of nelson mandela. -- prayers. more than five -- people packed the this church in soweto, once the center of anti apartheid protests. the worshipers sang songs and then prayed for the former south african president to return to better health. >> we have to pray for him because he gave as a new south africa. he is our father. like children, gathering to pray for him. >> mr. mandela was admitted to a johannesburg hospital last week with a respiratory illness. the has now returned home, news that came as a relief to many. >> there was no life -- everything stopped. just asking questions, why? i said to them, the man it is 92 years old. he has worked for us, has done it his part. we needed to pray for him. at the same time, we thank him. >> it is not just in south africa where prayer is for mr. mandela has been said. officials say he received more than 10,000 messages of support. >> whether it is on mandela or of course the situation in egypt, we want to know what you think. you can get in touch with us. the best way to do that is by the website, bbc.com/gmt. there, you can get links to both facebook and twitter pages. >here on "gmt" time to catch up with business. aaron is here with the business of egypt. >> starting to count the cost, not just their but are around the region. risk adverse investors across the middle east are certainly on the move and moving out of stocks across north africa. the unrest is keeping the stock exchange in cairo closed at least until wednesday. meanwhile, the region's other stock markets are falling. dubai, for example, closed down 4.3%. credit rating agency moody's downgraded egypt bought a debt rating following a similar move by fitch. oil -- $90 a barrel. all those fears over but the smooth flow through the suez canal. but commodity analysts say the jump in the price of oil at the moment is really just a knee- jerk reaction by investors. >> we expect -- we don't expected to be held hostage in terms of international politics. 2 million to three money barrels a day flowing out of crude-oil and about 2 million barrels of crude oil products. that amounts to 4.5% of global oil supplies. in terms of -- we do not expected to be shot down or longer term it sustained disruption because all to live the final decision in terms of this is likely to flow down if the military allows that are not and it does not seem to be the case. the concern that we are going back to levels that we saw in 1956 when we saw this was canal being shut for a few months or 1957 for six years -- 67 for six years, i think those fears are overblown >> and opec has issued a statement saying they are watching the situation closely and if they need to put more into the system, if you will, oil to cover any of the slack, but will certainly do so. let's talk about what. -- wheat, egypt is the largest importer of the grain. explain to us what is going on with the whole wheat thing? >> if you go back a year ago, the wheat market was looking very well supplied. third highest level on record. low inventories, around 50% higher than two years ago -- the inventories. over the last six months we have seen a steady deterioration in production downgrades. we had a drought in russia and the -- in the black sea region and they have put on an export ban until the end of the 2011 harvest. also a whole slew of imports, primarily from the middle east and north african countries. the concern is, international prices are high and if restrictions were to spread in the shorter term we could see a panic situation that leads to higher prices. >> let's stay with the subject. earlier i spoke to a director of the middle east center of the london school of economics. he explained the damage the last few days protests have had on egypt's economy. the tourist industry is 11% of their foreign resources. it has been devastated in the short term. the banking industry, the psychology of the market. remember, the markets do not light social upheaval. they do not like and stability. they prefer dictators. the response is psychological, but it short-term. i would argue, if the situation is consolidated, if stability returns to egypt, i think the market will likely recover very quickly. >> in terms of tourism, i believe i was reading egypt made close to $12 billion last year on tourism. but there is a wary but the amount of money being withdrawn by foreign investors, even egypt's middle-class taking out their savings and putting them abroad, some bankers suggesting a minimum of $500 million a day last week was being withdrawn. egypt, of course, has substantial reserves but it is not sustainable, not infinite, of course. >> not at all. this is why i hope the ruling class, the political class, both president mubarak and the army and opposition appreciate the complexity of the crisis and the inherent risks of the crisis on the middle-class and poor. remember egypt, of course, has the largest second economy -- second-largest economy and africa and but 30 million people at a party or below the poverty line. the crisis could devastate not only the middle class but devastating impact on the poor and the economy as well. and this is why we hope that basically in the next 48 hours, when the dust settles on the battlefield we will have a more stable situation in egypt. >> and we always like to see something positive coming out. you said this is the best thing that could possibly happen to egypt. >> ayotte one of those people that believes that if political transition takes place, if a settlement is found and institutional building takes place in egypt, if egypt regained his institutional infrastructure, egypt could become a giant market not just in the middle east of the world economy. this particular crisis could be a catalyst for the economic revival of egypt. >> let us recap and take a look at what we are seeing. . let's remind ourselves the market in cairo is closed once again today after falling more than 16% in two days of trading last week. ex 30 closed sunday, monday, we are hearing tuesday and possibly wednesday but most is off of the back, of course, of the damage being done to the arab-world's most populous country. let's go back to george who is live from cairo. >> thank you very much. welcome back to cairo. anywhere you go in the city, drive around and what you see is the presence of the army. the khaki-colored tanks, armored personnel carriers, soldiers themselves patrolling the streets and squares and the most important buildings. the army is an interesting institution in egypt, a respected, not least in its role as of the very it -- in the various conflicts. not just the police, which is an institution most resent. the army, highly respected. we have this look, this assessment of the army's role in the next few days. >> egypt pressing military is the 10th largest in the world, nearly half a million strong, and it has been at the heart of power since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1952. all four egyptian president since then have come from the military, which unlike the police and security forces, is held in high regard by the public. the response of the military so far has been uncertain. it failed to enforce the nightly curfews and soldiers on the streets seem to have little appetite to take on the protesters. as other pillars of moret crumbles, tv showed the president meeting his top commanders. maintaining their support is perhaps now his only hope for survival. >> any particular exit for mubarak damages the army and in this particular transfer the military is trying to position its own people -- in particular, omar suleiman, both -- and the new prime minister in the military established to fill any political vacuum if and when mubarak leaves. >> if there is a disconnected between president mubarak and the military, the army may see its duty as ensuring an orderly transition to a so far undefined new political order. the army has stepped in to maintain public order in the past. in 1977, soldiers were deployed on the streets -- and in 1986 they clashed with protesting police officers who were demanding more pay. but these were small scale in comparison to the last few days. they may now be very reluctant to open fire on their fellow egyptians. another consideration of army commanders seen here visiting the state television headquarters is the international reaction to any hard line response. the egyptian army receives $1.3 billion a year in aid from the united states. so far, washington has called for restraint but has not given any ultimatums. >> if we were to see the egyptian military begin to use real force against the protesters, live on fire and so forth, and kill many more protesters then we have seen so far, that may change the obama administration's attitude. for now, i think they do not want to be seen -- if any change is going to come, they wanted to come from within egypt and not seeing the united states as bringing it about. >> fighter jets above cairo indicate the military are keen to show the protesters they are still in control. the real test, though, will be what happens on the streets. >> let me just pick up where he left off, which is the idea that the real test is what happens on that test could come tomorrow because the protesters in the square behind me have said that this time tomorrow roughly they will have a million people on the streets. if that is the case and you do get such a large demonstration of opposition to hosni mubarak, the army may well have to decide. what it is doing now is just marking time did you see the soldiers on the streets, they shake hands with the protesters. nothing untoward. if there are a million bigamist. it may look a lot more different tomorrow. testing times, indeed, for egypt. >> george, thank you very much indeed. george alagiah as the world work shoes on -- watches on. one or two remarks, from other parts of the world, notably washington, talking about the need for a smooth transition. david cameron, the british prime minister, saying there was need for reform and not repression. a proper, orderly transition, the sort of language other eu member states have been using as well. which is in some contrast, for example, to israel which is taken a much more uted line about the situation about president mubarak and where the votes -- development should go. if you've got any views on what is very much remains story at the moment, then we've very much would like to hear from you just explain in -- we have the bbc world ms. facebook paige, updates from us there and our correspondents as well. that will also give you links to the bbc news web site with more analysis for you on all of the international stories. of course, there are other stories in the world today and if you would like to comment on any of those with very much would like to hear from you. that is just about it for the moment. do stay with us here on bbc world news. we've got plenty more to come. >> hello and welcome. >> see the news unfold, get the top stories from around the globe and click-to-play video reports. go to bbc.com/news to experience the in-depth, expert reporting of "bbc world news" online. >> funding was made possible by the freeman foundation of new york, stowe, vermont, and honolulu. newman's own foundation. the john d. and catherine t. macarthur foundation. and union bank. >> union bank has put its financial strength to work for a wide range of companies, from small businesses to major corporations. what can we do for you? >> "bbc world news" was presented by kcet los angeles. presented by kcet los angeles.