An attack against obamacare, wielding the threat of a Government Shutdown if he does not get his way. You can huff, you can puff for 21 hours, but you cannot blow the Affordable Care act away. Republicans say they are doing the will of the people. The American People do not want the president s healthcare bill and they do not want the Government Shutdown. At the United Nations, john kerry meets with his counterpart from iran amid reports of a breakthrough on syrias chemical weapons, and Virginia Governor candidates square off. He has referred to gay virginians as selfdestructive and soulless human beings. The soulless comment is offensively false. Elcome to inside washington. I am mark shields, filling in for gordon peterson. As we record this program on midday on friday, it is not clear whether the congress will avert the Government Shutdown on tuesday. The outcome depends on the ability of republicans to reconcile two factions of their own party those who worry they will take the blame if a Government Shutdown occurs, and those, including texas senator ted cruz, who believe the threat of the shutdown could force the defunding of the Affordable Care act, known as obamacare. No congress before this one has ever, ever, in history, been irresponsible enough to threaten default just to try to blackmail a president into giving them some concessions on issues that have nothing to do with the budget. The president has dug in his heels, refusing to negotiate, and conservative republicans have given no quarter in their demand even if the result is a Government Shutdown and other economic catastrophes. Have republicans painted themselves into a political corner . Charles . There are ways out, but we do not know if the votes are there. I think the rational strategy would be simple. There is tremendous opposition to shutting the government down, or threatening to. But there is a remarkable support, a bloomberg poll, two toone, americans want the debt ceiling to be tied to budget cuts, and believe that obama is wrong in not negotiating over that. If republicans are smart, they will pass some kind of continuing resolution to allow the government to go on and they will put all of their effort where the public is behind them, on the debt ceiling, where americans think it would be a good idea to have a negotiation and get some cuts. Jeanne, is that the bloomberg poll . Yes, it was quite striking, and charles is right, that 61 including three quarters of republicans, two thirds of independents, and a plurality of democrats. Saying . Saying negotiate the debt ceiling, put extra cuts in. They want to see more cuts, and we had another poll that showed the majority of americans want republicans to stop this stuff with obamacare. If you take them together, what the poll indicates is that the American Public wants the people in washington to cut out the brinksmanship, the gamesmanship, and the threats, and sit down and do their jobs. Overwhelmingly, nina, the democrats have seemed unified on this, and the division has been within the republican ranks to the point of ted cruz accusing other Republican Senate colleagues of being mini neville chamberlains at munich. John mccain, sort of, in five minutes, decapitated him on that. It is remarkable that 40to60 house members within the republican majority can prevent a continuing resolution from keeping the federal government going, and that the speaker, the majority leader, the majority whip in the house, do not have the this is Family Television to take it to a vote. Backbone. Backbone, thank you. To te it to a vote in the house. Close. Close. Anatomically speaking. Anatomically speaking. If they get thrown out, they get thrown out. It is a big story if they get thrown out. At some point, you have to have the courage of your convictions be governing. You are sent to washington to govern, not to not govern. Colby, it is interesting. If this rule that nina speaks to, which is that you need a majority of republicans support to bring anything to the floor had operated when Ronald Reagan was the president with the democrats controlling the house, we never would have gotten to a vote on Ronald Reagans budget. It is obvious there are votes there to pass this budget right now with democrats and republicans voting for it, but is it heading off the cliff . The socalled rule is a self imposed rule by republicans themselves, and john boehner is the one observing that rule. He ought not to do that, but he is in an awful position. He has week after week, day after day, ad nauseam, said that the president has to negotiate with us, but he cann negotiate with his own caucus. How does the president sit down with john boehner and negotiate anything when whenever john boehner tries to negiate may not stick . Charles said rightly if the republicans were smart, and i think i am quoting you correctly, if the republicans are smart they would pass a continuing resolution. What does that say about the House Republicans . Maybe they are not so smart because when john boehner came to them with the suggestion, lets take our fight to the debt ceiling, they did not do it. They still want to fight over the closing of the government and this budget over this continuing resolution. It is silly. There are a couple of things you could attach to a continuing resolution that the senate would approve the exemption of members of congress and their staff from obamacare. If you put that in the cr, it is impossible, particularly for a democratic senator in a red state, to vote against that because it looks and it is extremely unfair. Another possible thing, and it is riskier, is to have a one year delay in the individual mandate because it looks unfair. If youre a big business, you get a delay. If youre an individual, you do not. But that is dicier. You pick your targets carefully. This is the rule if you have the overwhelming majority of americans with you, you will win the showdown, but if you dont, and on repealing obamacare, you do not, youre going to lose. That is a gotcha amendment. That is not talking about the problem. The problem for the red state senators, i think, is they have this vote in their dna. They voted for obamacare. They cannot run from it, so a tweak here or there will not make a difference on the campaign trail. They have to defend the bigger vote. I do not know if you have a few small tweaks that are added into the cr that the voters are going to recognize such a small distinction. They will have to defend the vote out there and they already are. All you need is a 30second ad saying he wants to exempt himself and his staff, and he gets a subsidy, which is illegal under obamacare, and you do no they could run that right now. They could run that right now. That is right. Looking ahead, it does seem to be the smart thing for obama to do, if he is looking ahead to the default, to the threatening, is to clearly endorse Simpson Bowles as his negotiating point. If we get through this crisis, we look at the debt ceiling fight, which is big time, jeanne, and we are talking the 17th of october, and the possible shutdown of the entire federal operation. Politics . Reality . The risk is a default on all of our debt, which would hit Economic Standing throughout the world. It would be a major event that has never happened before. Economists are already warning the hill again about the repercussions that they fear. It is not a very good beginning because john boehner had a plan where he had a bill that would lift the debt ceiling, and they put everything on there the total christmas tree, every little present the republicans wished thecould pass if they ran the world, the attached to this, and he could not pass that. This is really not a great beginning. We will see. They will put stuff on this. The president says he is not going to negotiate, but the bottom line is they have to work together. The president has to give republican something to vote for, and the public wants him to negotiate and past president s there is a certain amount of dilution. You hear some republicans handed is not need to be a default. You could pay, what the democrats call, pay the chinese first you could pay off your Interest Rate first. Well, then you can not Social Security and veterans benefits. I mean, you are kidding yourself if you think you could not default. Charles, are we looking at a potential default . No, i do not think it would happen. I do not think it is ever going to happen. Obama is in a position that is untenable. Americans wanted to negotiate, 61 to 28 say theyre willing to risk a credit default in order to reduce spending. But they do not know what that means. Whatever it means, it is public opinion. That is what you appeal to. And it is a fourtoone against the republicans in shutting down the government. Secondly, if the government shuts down, it will be all on the shoulders of republicans. If you have a default, the economy will sort of shake and shiver for a while, and everything will slow down, and in the end, a few months or down the road, whatever loss of Economic Growth that we get will be on the shoulders of the president. He knows that. He is responsible in a general way. I think he has every incentive, and in the end he will negotiate and theyre likely to get a deal. Colby, in 2011, they came close to a default. The best estimate from independent economists is that there were higher interest re payment because of that. It is a real hit to the economy. We are in the fifth year of the republicans attempt to bring down this president. This will be their next latest effort to do that through the debt ceiling. The president is absolutely right to hold firm on this, take it up to the 11th hour, and if they go over the cliff, he can make the case that it is the republicans who have force this to happen. Jeanne is right. They put everything on that debt ceiling bill that they could that would be distasteful to this president. They knew that. This is all about politics and the kind of Dark Politics the republicans have been practice in for the last five years. Come on, Dark Politics. Obama decided he had control of the house and got through Health Reform without anything from the republican side. If he had done tort reform, he would have gotten a lot of republicans. He decided it would be his way. As a result, a major change is done with a Straight Party vote. Republicans did everything. Timeout. That is it. The president seeks to rally support for obamacare next. I am anxious to see obamacare up and running. People can see what choices they have and we find they are thrilled with the competition. Policies for under a hundred dollars, less than your cell phone bill, that is good news for millions of americans who do not have Health Insurance right now. That is the health and Human Services secretary Kathleen Sebelius speaking up in support of the Affordable Care act. The presidt said the biggest fear is not that the Affordable Care act will fail, but that it will succeed. The administration released a summary of premiums in 36 states, highlighting costs were below initial estimates. Tuesday for the new healthcare plans. How and when will you be able to tell whether obamacare is a success or failure, Jeanne Cummings . We will know fairly quickly. In the first few months, the administration has set a goal to make sure we get a couple million young people signed up, and that is not saying only young people will sign up, but it is important Healthy People get in there to balance out the cost. By the time we get to january, when the system for individuals is actually open for business, we will know if they signed up. What we will also know, early indicators, is whether enroll america, which is the offshoot of the president s Grassroots Campaign machine, if they are having any success. They are working very hard out there. They have a history of getting people to sign up for things to read in that case things. In that case, it was a voting. In this case it is health care, but on policy they have not been effective, so we will see if they can pull this off. We will know in one way, colby king, if it is called obamacare one year from now. Itll be called a Government Program if it is successful. Get past the semantics. This will be a difficult rollout. A lot of the companies are taking advantage of this law to make changes on their own, so the industry itself is getting really disrupted by this, not necessarily in a bad way, but it will go through a change. I do not think we can make a judgment about this program a serious judgment, six months from now. I think it will take longer, just like it did with Social Security and medicare. There will be a lot of changes as this Program Takes effect over time. The other day, they said the district of columbia, for example, would not be able to launch the program on time because of technical glitches, and it so happens they will be able to do it. They announced it today. Every thing they have promised, they will be able to do on october 1, but the technical glitches will be worked out later. I think it will be very hard to get people the most Vulnerable People who will really benefit from this the 7 Million People who, for example, probably could get this all but free if you include subsidies, to get the word to them. In houston we have a piece on npr saying enroll america had seven people working at cvss and drug stores to get information to people, and they really did not know anything about it. This will be very difficult. Charles, your own sense of when we will have a i think jeanne is right. We have to look at the enrollment numbers. Look, the whole hidden agenda is not even hidden, get the healthy young to subsidize older people. If you get enough of them in the program, the program will work, and the question is will you get them . Nobody knows. Weill see. There is so much deceptive advertising here. Kathleen sebelius talks about how happy people are going to be. There are going to be three levels of protection, the gold, the silver, and the bronze, and the bronze is the most bare bones. Yes, the premiums on the bronze are extremely low, but the deductible is 6,000, so if you are someone that wants catastrophic insurance, you will have to pay the first 6,000 if you are hit with an illness out of pocket, and that is catastrophic if you are ordinary income. Then i would say this is reported on fox, but not other places, when you go into the weeds, there are huge problems, and are they going to be worked out . I do not know. This is so much more confiscated and medicare, which is used as an example complicated than medicare, which is used as an example. It has so many moving parts, and i think it is likely to be a train wreck, as senator max baucus has said. One thing we will see is that it will be very uneven. That is for sure. Texas has resisted any involvement. People are unaware. Go into a state like colorado, where the governor has totally engaged, he is going to be using all kinds of ways to spread the word and get young people. He is reaching out through social media, bars, and is even talking about using amber alerts. The medicare act has been amended over and over again, and that will have to continue because it needs to be continued. Here is the problem obama has, getting Healthy People enrolled you have a lobbying group built up to discourage people from signing up. You do not ne a lobbying they are putting in money to discourage them. If you are a young person, economically, it makes no sense at all to actually sign up for that is why they are going to try to impose a fine. It is not koch brothers. It is economics. It is a conservative idea to have everyone enrolled and penalize those that do not. It is out of a conservative think tank. A diplomatic ceasefire between the unit states and iran, next. We also have a short, bilateral discussion with secretary john kerry after the meeting in which we stressed the need to continue the discussions and give it the political impetus that it requires. I am satisfied with this first step, and now we have to see whether we can match our positive words with serious deeds so that we can move forward. That was the Iranian Foreign minister commenting on his meeting thursday at the United Nations with u. S. Secretary of state john kerry. It is the highest level contact between the two countries since 1979. During his visit to the u. N. , irans new president wished america well and he does things itself from his predecessor, ahmadinejad, by condemning the holocaust as a crime. Is this cause for real hope, nina . Charles does not think so, but i think it nixon could have a warming relationship with china and the united states, it is cause for hope. To reiterate what i said last week, and what Ronald Reagan said, you have to trust t verify. I think there is hope. Why they are talking to the u. S. Now, why they are taking the tone, very simple the sanctions are working. I am glad to hear the critics that say sanctions are not working have publicly acknowledged that the sanctions are driving and ran to the table to have the time iran to the table to have the conversations. Forget the bells and whistles. He is a hardliner, a fundamentalist, but the fundamental economic problems in iran are causing this. Are sanctions working, charles . Yeah, they bring them to the table, but it has had zero effect on their nuclear programs, and rohani distinguished himself by reiterating the inalienable right of iran to enrich uranium. They are enriching uranium as we speak. They are adding 3000 highspeed machines. They are about 80 kilograms away from what they getting is an are indefinite extension of negotiations. That is exactly what theyant. This is an issue of purchasing time, and it is exactly what we are giving them. He said they wanted a three tosix month window. You would say it also if you were about threetosix months away from having a bomb. And one correction, he did not condemn the holocaust. The cnn interview was mistranslated. It was exposed and explained in the wall street journal on thursday. He did not do that. I know Everybody Loves to hope for that, but he did not even come close. In fairness, the wall street journal quoted the most antiisraeli group as the translator. The wall street journal had independently translated you are wrong about this. Lets hear from jeanne. Time is limited. I want to hear jeanne. Exactly. Im not going to pretend to be an expert on this, but im curious about something can we find out more in our reporting over the course of time about what is motivating the iranian leadership . I would really like to know how bad is it in terms of the sanctions, and the condition of their people. Is that the motivating factor . Is it that they looked at syria and other countries and said could we be next . What is motivating them because that motivational help us decide if they are sincere. Jeanne cummings, a slugfest for Virginia Governor. The result has been a sharp increase in the most personal of attacks, and they become deceitful and false by the press. You see the ads, overwhelmingly negative, unbelievably false. Republican ken cuccinelliand democrat Terry Mcauliffe exchanged pleasantries this week. Nine times in a row, virginia voters have elected a government governor of the opposite party of the sitting resident in the white house. Can Terry Mcauliffe break that streak . Ken cuccinelli might help him do that. He has a difficult record to run on. There is a tremendous gender g that has not been closed. He lost the chamber of commerce of fairfax endorsement to Terry Mcauliffe. He is just not the person for this time. Other republicans around the country have to watch this kind of tng in a state that is not solidly red. Jeanne cummings. I do think the gender gap is important. In northern virginia, it is always critical in the governor races, and what we have seen in our reporting in terms of donors and endorsement is that the Business Community has placed its bet with Terry Mcauliffe. That is unusual in virginia. We saw business groups, the realtors, for instance, endorsed Terry Mcauliffe, and republicans in other places. That is an important bet, tipping things some to Terry Mcauliffe, and it is all about turnout, and Ken Cuccinellis people are passionate. Virginia has voted more like the National Outcome in the last two elections than any of the other 50 states. Is this a significant race . I am not so sure because i am not sure this will be determined on policy because there is a heavy shadowing of technical issues. When Terry Mcauliffe looks slightly cleaner, you know you have a bizarre election. I think it is individualized and idiosyncratic. The guy kicking himself is the Lieutenant Governor who is a genuine republican centrist and could have attracted a lot of he certainlyotes. Would have held the Business Community. When our side wins, it is a national trend, when the other side wins, it is all because of local issues. Exactly. [laughter] that is it for this week. Tune in next week for inside washington