off the election season but could have a huge effect on who wins the gop nomination. nbc's tracie potts is in des moines with more. good morning. >> reporter: veronica, good morning. at this point it's not so much what these candidates say, it's what they do. making a personal connection at the last minute before the voting begins tonight. >> ron paul! >> reporter: this late in the game for many voters is not just about issue, it's about trust. >> he's humble. i trust him. i don't trust anybody else in politics. >> you heard it here first, ron paul will carry iowa. >> reporter: it's possible, polling just two points behind front-runner mitt romney who boldly predicted victory money. >> we're going to win this thing with all our passion and strength. >> reporter: rick santorum thinks he can win, too, in iowa's biggest poll suggests he's moving in that direction. >> i didn't have the money to compete here. but we were able to do it. why? because money doesn't buy iowa. >> reporter: newt gingrich claims money romney's negative ads knocked him out of the top three. now he seems undecided about his own chances. >> i don't think i'm going to win. we may pull off one of the great upsets in the history of the iowa caucuses. >> reporter: last-minute campaigning, can it make a difference? analysts say conservative values are still huge in iowa, but the biggest factor this year is electability, who can beat barack obama? >> every candidate's going to be going out, shaking hands and meeting caucus goers individually. at the end of the day, though, i think i do believe that mitt romney will end up on top. >> reporter: well, we'll see if that happens. by the way, romney's staff backed off his winning predictions saying he was referring to the nomination, not to tonight's caucuses. veronica? >> tracie potts in iowa, thank you for that. in los angeles now, there was a major break in the case of dozens of arson fires over the holiday weekend. fires which caused millions in damages and left area residents on edge. stephanie stanton has details. >> reporter: since early thursday morning, there have been 52 fires in and around los angeles. sunday night a dozen more fires were set. but early monday morning, a break in the case. >> our long four-day nightmare is over. >> this morning around 3 a.m. the sheriff's department detained a 24-year-old man named harry burkhart, who has subsequently been charged with one count of arson. >> reporter: police say he's a german national. he's been charged with one count of arson and held without bail. it's also still unclear if he acted alone. >> there are some indicators that he may be a lone actor, but we do not know that yet. >> reporter: he was apprehended in west hollywood by l.a. county reserve deputy. the part-time deputy says he made the traffic stop when he saw burkhart, who resembled the man seen in this surveillance video taken near hollywood and highland after a fire in a parking structure. officials say more charges are expected against burkhart after fires that terrorized the community and caused nearly $3 million in damage. stephanie stanton, nbc news, los angeles. an iraq war veteran suspected of killing a ranger at mt. rainier national park has been found dead inside that park. 24-year-old benjamin barnes was discovered partially submerged in a snowy creek where he apparently died from exposure to the cold. he was wanted in the shooting death of margaret anderson on sunday. the wife and mother of two was gunned down while trying to stop barnes after he drove to the park on the run. police say after shooting four other people in a seattle suburb. now, here's a look at other stories making news early today in merng. a spring of fire bomb attacks on new year's day has new york police looking out for a a man using molotov cocktails. a georgia family suffered a devastating loss when an su vuchlt crastv barelied into a living room where a children and mother slept after running a stop sign and losing control. the driver was arrested for vehicle homicide and additional charges. a collision on a kentucky highway nearly killed one trucker when his semi hit a wild turkey. the bird crashed through the windshield hitting the driver in the face. he pulled over to toss the bird out on the side of the road where it was later put down by an emergency crew. finally, talk about your freak of nature. a winter snowstorm pat the most of downtown cleveland except one year that happened to be 127 degrees. what's that all about? actually, a technical glitch caused a bank thermometer to display the wrong temperature instead of a temperature in the high 20s. okay. now for a look at your national and regional weather, here's bill karins with the weather channel forecast. any way you slice it, 127 degrees or 27 degrees, it's just really uncomfortable. >> right. either death valley or, you know, the north pole. >> right. >> we did have a lot of snow yesterday. cleveland was one of those areas. anywhere near the lake had snow. michigan picked up snow. it was cold air and winds that also accompanied the lake-effect snow. at times it was near whiteout or almost blizzard conditions out there. for a lot of lake areas it was the first time it felt like winter. some of the first lake-effect snows of the season in some cases. today the cold air is well advertised, moving through the eastern half of the country. in wisconsin, windchill minus 15. cold winds will be moving through chicago. temperatures are plummeting. atlanta has a windchill of only 11. it's colder in atlanta than in boston. don't worry, boston, that cold air is heading your way soon enough. the cold air will be accompanied by more snow showers today. the spine of the appear lay chance around north carolina and tennessee picked up significant snow, too. as far as the snow today, high pressure will build in. the snow showers will become less and less as the day moves on. right now the worst is just south of the downtown buffalo, a couple heavy bands are moving through some of the higher terrain there. interstate 90 new york state thruway gets the worst. we're already starting to warm up from denver to kansas city. now here's a look at the weather outside your window. very cold on the east coast. 57 by miami standards is a cold, winter day. down there i'm sure a lot of people will be bundled up. other places warming up, austin, texas, along with everyone in the midwest. once again, today's probably the coldest day. by mid-winter standards, not all that bad. >> we were doing that story where it was 27 degrees. 29 degrees in new york today? >> that's chilly, yes. >> that's chilly for sure. world market gets a jump on wall street. venz what lay short-changes exxonmobil. the strange soda defense. your early morning business headlines are straight ahead. who would you choose to play him in a movie? wait until you hear his own choice. overtime in the fiesta bowl. a record-setting rose bowl. and a wild finish to the winter classic. you're watching "early today." very good morning to you. welcome back to "early today." i'm veronica de la cruz. here are some of your top headlines this morning. iran says it has successfully test-fired a surface-to-surface cruise missile now saying iran is in complete control of the strait of hormuz. iran's army warned america not to allow another carrier back in the gulf after it was removed during iran's naval exercises. grim numbers from the front lines of mexico drug wars. mexican newspapers report 12,000 people were killed in drug violence in 2011. more than 50,000 people have been killed in 2006 when president calderon started a crackdown on traffickers. the christmas season brought an unusual sales record for guns. december 23rd was the second busiest day for gun purchases in u.s. history, right behind black friday. fbi records show more than 1.5 million names were sent in for background checks last month. the holidays are officially over for the first family. in hawaii president obama and first lady amichelle said one final good-bye to well wishers before boarding air force one. markets were closed yesterday for the new year holiday. here's an early look at how they will kick off today. the dow opens at 12,217 after falling 69 points last friday. the s&p last 5. the nasdaq was down 8. taking a look at overseas trading this morning in tokyo, nikkei gained 56 points while in hong kong the hang seng surged 443. most major global markets start the year off returning to action today but a few were open for business monday. germany and france led off 2012 rising on light volume on data showing recent european manufacturing data improved slightly. in asia this morning stocks generally did well on that same european data. oil rose above $10 0 a barrel. france's nicolas sarkozy and germany's angela merkel will meet on new budget disciplinary rules. exxonmobil will pay $250 million in compensation for nationalized assets, less than a third of what the oil giant was awarded an arbitration panel and only a fraction of the more than $10 billion it originally sought. christmas returns are expected to hit an all-time high today at united parcel service. half a million plus. a federal court monday bp said all of its costs and damages from the 2010 gulf oil spill should be paid by halliburton, the contractor on the project. finally, pepsi has an interesting but hardly reassuring defense against a lawsuit by a man claiming he found a mouse in his mountain dew. it's impossible because the soda would have dissolved the mouse before the man could have found it. hockey's winter showcase was a thriller and all the action from college football's biggest bowl day. plus, of all those bowl games, if you liked scoring, the rose bowl was the one for you. your early morning sports headlines are up next. big arctic air has arrived but a warm-up is around the corner. your forecast is coming up. . very good morning to you. if you're just waking up, this is "early today." in sports monday was college football's big bowl day. here's nbc's mario solis with an early look at all your sports headlines. hi, good morning. there were six bowl games yesterday. let's get right to it. first up, the tositio's fiesta bowl. stanford and oklahoma city exchanging touchdowns all game long. williamson shanks a 35-yard field goal and off to overtime when the cowboys take the lead for good. sharp nails a chip shot. oklahoma wins. another shootout in pasadena, oregon and wisconsin 48 points. thomas with two carries, take this is one 98 yards to the house. the other was a 64-yard touchdown. number five oregon shining brighter than their helmet win 45-38. outback bowl, michigan state's bell ties the game and forces overtime with just 14 seconds left. remains tied until the third o.t. spartans up three when they block the field goal attempt. michigan state wins 33-30 in triple overtime. a disappointing end for penn state. three touchdowns and houston wins 30-14. south carolina's shaw had three touchdowns, two through the air and one on the ground. they beat nebraska to win the capital one bowl 30-13. to the gator bowl where special teams were truly special for florida. returns a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown, blocked a punt and returned it for a score. and finally, can't forget about the winter classic in philly. nearly 47,000 saw the flyers jump out to a 2-0 lead. then the rangers score three unanswered. mike rupp with a pair. check out the celebration. exactly what the flyers jagr does after his scores. rupp was having fun and so was henrik lundqvist, stopping brier late in the third. rangers win the classic 3-2. that's your look at sports on "early today." i'm mario solis. >> announcer: "early today" sports is brought to you by touch of gray. get rid of some gray, never all. who's getting married and who says they never will again. your early morning entertainment headlines are straight ahead. plus, it is the national pastime, the stuff of legends, but for some it's even more than that. you're watching "early today." welcome back to "early today." focusing in on iowa where a lot of people will be doing caucusing during the day tonight. tonight a very cold start with the windchills but the forecast does not call for any rain or snow. as far as what we're dealing with in the eastern u.s., one of the coldest days of the season so far. there could be snow flurries out there near the great lakes, maybe even cold showers. but the coldst part, the southern half of the u.s. if you're watching us in hanover, new hampshire, learn the effects of everything from capitalism, technology and even gender relations on hockey. at controlling ice hockey, 1875 to 2000 at exeter historical society. >> did you say learn everything about capitalism and then -- awesome. i love hockey. >> there's a lot to it. >> apparently. now here's an erm look at this morning's headlines in entertainment. russell brand may be losing a wife but reports say in doing so he could be gaining millions of dollars. brand told "new york" magazine he and katy perry had no prenup meaning under california law he is entitled to half her earnings which as much as $20 million. a bichlt o pik on the life of elton john is in the works and elton john is lobbying for justin timberlake to take on the lead role. jilted 85-year-old fiancee hugh hefner says he will never marry again. this summer, another royal wedding, aretha franklin announced she's marrying a long-time friend on monday. the 69-year-old joked, no, i am not pregnant. >> justin timberlake, do you think he could pull that off, elton john? >> yeah, j.t. -- >> he can play the piano, sing -- >> he's pretty talented. >> he would have to put a couple -- get a little bigger. >> i think he'd do a good job. this comes to us from ksnw in wichita, kansas, where even in the dead of winter america's pastime played a vital role in one couple's wedding plans. they decided to get married where it mattered most to them, the couple met on the baseball diamond after a game in which their daughters played on the opposite teams. six years later, the bride and groom stepped onto home plate and made the commitment to take a swing at life together. that is so sweet. i'm veronica de la cruz. this is "early today," just your first stop of the day today on your nbc station. >> live, local, late-breaking, this is wbal-tv 11 news today. >> good morning. this will likely be the coldest day we have seen so far this winter season. we are around 30. you say that is not bad. it cannot move. that will be the high temperature in the day. it is a little breezy. the wind chills are running in the upper teens. a mixture of sun and clouds. a chance for some snow flurries. we will come back and check the forecast going into the weekend. >> 4:57. a baltimore city native has passed away. >> i am kate amara. republican voters begin choosing their nominee tonight. the latest snapshot of the campaign is coming up. >> the city has issued a code blue alert. i have more on what that means. >> wind warnings in effect at the area bridges. have a water main break withk [captioning made possible by constellation energy group] captioned by the national captioning institute --www.ncicap.org-- >> live, local, late-breaking, this is wbal-tv 11 news today. >> good morning. i'm mindy basara. >> and i'm stan stovall. thank you for joining us this morning. >> the cold weather begins. >> the coldest weather so