Good sunday morning. Apologies for all of you that didnt win powerball, but weve got a huge show for you today, includeing my sit down with donald trump and the struggling everyday by some in the socalled republican establishment to figure out some way to stop either trump or ted cruz from becoming the partys nominee. We can say this theyve got their work cut out for them. According to our brand new nbc news wall street journal marist poll out in iowa, ted cruz holds a slim lead over donald trump, 28 to 24 , marco rubio and ben carson fighting far distant third. As well show you later, if trump manages to bring in new voters, he does much better. We did two different electorates in iowa to test this phenomenon. Here are the singledigit republicans in iowa, the ones who got at least 3 in our poll. Theres jeb bush stuck at 4 . And by the way, the two previous guys who won iowa didnt even get 3 in this, huckabee and santorum. Staying with the republicans, in with rubio, christie and cruz in double digit bus trailing badly in a battle for second place. Bush and john kasich just under double digits sitting at 9 followed by rand paul and a fading ben carson. But the news here may be on the democratic side. We have quite a race. We always knew we had one in New Hampshire. But in iowa its tossup. Hillary clintons lead there has shrunk to three points over Bernie Sanders in a critical state for her with Martin Omalley back at 5 but that 5 number very important for him for the next democratic debate. In New Hampshire, split the leaders but essentially the same story, sanders narrowly ahead by four points. Omalley barely registers. Its fair to say a year ago no one would have predicted Bernie Sanders mounting this challenge to clinton or donald trump leading anywhere. But thats where we are three weeks before the first voting. And yesterday i sat down backstage with trump in ottumwa, iowa. We began by talking about the cover story of Time Magazine how trump won and whether hes already accomplished what he set out to do. If you got out of the race won something . I dont. I think the time article was incredibly well written. Thats a good writer, i will tell you that, a professional. But i feel that if i dont win all of it, and i mean the president soy, that ive wasted my time. Accolades. Youve shifted the debate. Especially being somewhat of a novice. People have said very nice things, like Time Magazine but i feel like if i dont win i cant make the different. You know theres running conventional wisdom that says okay, hes here to stay but if he doesnt leave iowa, hell leave the race. Im not leaving. Im not leaving. You and i had us this discussion about two months ago and you said would you leave. Ive been number one since i joined up. June 16, amazing. Asked me that question i started talking about well, maybe here, maybe there, if this happens. Theres no maybes anymore . No maybes. Im not leaving. Convention . If i dont win, i dont win. Maybe that can happen but you dont accept the idea that you might lose iowa . You could lose it. I hope i win iowa. Ive developed an amazing relationship with the people of iowa. You see it outside. We have a sold out audience. But i have an amazing relationship with evangelicals, with the tea party, with the people of iowa. Your chief canompetitor is ted cruz. You have brought up the Canadian Citizenship issue. But let me ask you your opinion. Do you believe he is constitutionally eligible . I know the Supreme Court has never weighed in on the phrase natural born citizen. But you yourself, do you think he should be eligible . So what happens is i was watching Laurence Tribe of harvard yesterday whos a constitutional expert, one of the true experts. And according to him, its a and he is the i would say he was is one of the great authorities on this subject. He has a question mark and but do you have a question mark . From teds standpoint and the partys standpoint, he has to solve this problem. Because the democrats will sue him if hes the nominee. If ted is the nominee, he will be sued by the democrats and according to one of the great lawyers of the country at harvard with strong opinions on this, the whole thing has not been this matter as he said, this matter has not been determined. I understand that. Im talking about your opinion. I would say that i would want the Supreme Court to rule because they havent ruled. Let me ask you about you said something about senator cruz in a cnn interview. You said he was for amnesty. Thats a big charge. Of all people to charge being evidence on him . He worked for bush, bush was heavy for amnesty. He worked for him. And he was heavy for amnesty. After him, rubio and bush are both claiming each other was totally for amnesty and honestly, marco has a lot of good points as to teds feeling on amnesty. Ted just switched his views on ethanol. He was totally against it now hes for it. Its iowa and hes for it. Where are you in ethanol . Ive been okay with ethanol. Youre okay with the subsidies. I like fuel and ethanol is fuel and the people out here, its a very important subject but ted switched and i think they feel very queasy about that. Think thats fine. Youve changed a lot. The years. I mean, we change. To see what happens. Thing. 1. Its going to be very exciting. Let me ask you. Senator rubio sponsored a bill in florida back when he was in tuition for undocumented immigrants. Theres a lot of states that allow instate tuition for the children of undocumented immigrants. Ive not heard your position. Im opposed to it. Totally opposed . Theyre not here legally. Even kids born to illegal immigrants. Well, i happen to disagree with the whole concept of anchor babies. Thats in the constitution. No, its not the constitution. If you read and look and go to the real scholars like different people that i can give you they will tell you, somebody comes over and they have a baby on our border and it happens to be on this side of the border, were not mandated to take care of that baby. You dont to change the constitution. You may need a vote in congress, but you dont have to change it. Now, theres a debate about that. I dont think its even close and ive been on this issue for a long time. No, no. Supreme to come into our country legally, jeff. They have to be here legally. How do you decide if someones a muslim when youre doing this test . Well, theres got to be some kind of a method. Im not taking somebodys word. Thats my point. If somebody wants to do damage, theyre going to lie and cheat and sneak into this country. This has become a very big factor over the last week and a half, two weeks since i made my announcement that we have to see what the hell is going on. In the meantime the other night you have a cop shot in philadelphia with a gun put to his head and you know the chants and the rantings and the ravings. Now youre looking at colon, germany i understand that. But how do you do it . I get it, or do you just say, you know what, you do it geographically, not religiously. You have certain people come in. If theyre Business People if theyre proven but we have to find out what the problem is. Now, we can be politically correct and never discuss it, but we cant let that happen to our country. Let me get some news of the week. China clearly its economy, theyre having a problem. Theyre having a crisis there. You have railed that china is beating america and yet theyre killing us. Okay. Creation spree in 20 years. China is cratering our stock market for the problems they have at home. How is that the definition of china winning and america losing. Look at our gdp. If you look at that, if you look at our productivity, if you look at the fact that people in ten years essentially havent had a raise, people are going down instead of up, the jobs, a lot of temporary jobs, people are working temporary jobs and jobs that they dont want instead of jobs our economy is doing horribly and you take a look at the jobs report, the jobs report is fiction. Because all of the people that total fiction . You know theres been improvements from the crash, obviously. I would say its 90 we all had improvements from crashes. We had a crash, we had somewhat of a crash. Would it have straightened itself out . We had somewhat of a crash. But listen, chuck, you have 60, 70, 80 Million People out there that want to work that arent getting jobs. You said you thought negotiator . Obama is one of the worst negotiators on everything ive ever seen except for when it comes to dealing with the republicans. Its unbelievable. The republicans fold every single time. This last budget was terrible. But look at the iran deal, you look at these deals, i look up bergdahl, we get a traitor, they get five people theyve wanted for nine years and theyre back on the battlefield trying to kill everybody including us and we get a dirty rotten traitor. Thats the way thats the counted of kind of deal we make. And iran uranium out. Theyre living up to the deal. Where do they ship it . To russia. Well, you trust putin. I trust him more than some people. I was just going to say i can tell you that. But what kind of a dial is that . Even that, theyre shipping it to russia, right . Why arent they shipping it to us . Why arent we getting it . Theyre shipping it to russia. You dont like that . No, id like them to ship it to us. Its our deal, so they get 150 billion. We dont even get our prisoners back. They have 24day periods and, by the way, the people dont know, the 24 days doesnt start until a whole procedure takes place. That 24 day can be a longer hard to wipe away Nuclear Material in 24 days. I dont know that. And you dont know that. Scientists tell us that. How about their right to selfinspection . You think that the iranians are going to give us good selfinspection . I dont. But with the republicans, obamas a great negotiator. Back in a moment with more of my sit down of donald trump including his plans to use president clintons past against hillary. I dont want to say it as a threat, but its a threat. It [ male announcer ] some come here to build something smarter. Some come here to build something stronger. Others come to build something faster. Something safer. Something greener. People come to boeing to do many different things. But its always about the very thing we do best. Your body was made for Better Things than rheumatoid arthritis. Before you and your rheumatologist move to a biologic, ask if xeljanz is right for you. 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When Hillary Clinton called donald trump out for his attitudes toward women, trump wasted no time firing back saying if she wants to play that game so can he with bill clinton at the target. I asked him yesterday whether hes serious about going down that road. Youve said youre willing to bring up bill clintons past with women if Hillary Clinton attacks you for being a sexist. So is that a threat toer . Is that essentially what youre saying is, hey, you want know go down that road, you go down that road, i go down this road. I dont want to say this is a threat but its a threat. Of course, i can call her a nicer name. She was saying he has tendency towards being sixist. Talking about you . Talking about me. Shes married to an abuser. A woman claimed rape, horrible things. You know if you bring it up people will bring up your your first divorce was ugly. Its fine. All over the tabloids. But i wasnt the president of the United States and i wasnt dealing in the oval office, all right . A big difference. I wasnt the president. And my first wife thinks im great and my second wife and and i have a great marriage. I mean, i have a great marriage. So i mean, its fine. Im not saying dont bring anything up with me. But when she says that, i had to bring it up. And by the way, theyve become very unresponsive since then. They have. And i just won the fox poll against her even. Hillary. As you know people call you a lot of names, some of it is i want to throw some by you. Some people are calling you the music man of this race. Kim kardashian, biff from back to the future, george costanza. Pt barnum. Any of those you consider a compliment . Pt barnum. Pt barnum . People call you names. We need pt barnum a bit. We have to be a cheerleader for our country. We dont have a cheer leerd. I thought obama when he got elected would be a good cheerleader. I said hell unify the country, whether its africanamerican and white and all hell unify. Hes not unifying. Its hes been a great divider. On top of that hes been the divider . What about the Republican Party . No, no, i think you dont think this has been a twoway street. Chuck, he hasnt brought us together. Thats on him . Not on both parties . I think its on everybody, but hes the leader. He could have been a great cheerleader and he hasnt been what do you tell conservatives about 90s trump, you liked the clintons, you were prochoice, you were even for some gun control, you wondered why the nra wouldnt be for some limitations, some restrictions. 2016 trump, youre not that guy. Well, i have changed. Ive changed in many ways. What is it . Whats the change . Look at ronald reagan. Ronald reagan was a somewhat liberal democrat. Ronald reagan was a liberal democrat. And he became a fairly conservative not overly but fairly conservative republican. And as he grew old desh ander and ive seen things and watches things. If in paris or california recently the 14 People Killed and probably others to follow in terms of that group because you have some people that are very, very badly wounded and in paris you have some people that are on but paris is you cant have guns. In france you cant have guns in if in paris they had guns, if in california on the other side where the bullets go both ways, not just one direction, you carnage youve had. What should be the restrictions, though, on purchasing guns . Where are you on this . Background checks for everybody . First of all, theres a lot of language right now that the federal government has not taken advantage of. You know that. Theres tremendous language right now, stuff thats already been passed and it was passed the oldfashioned way where people agreed to it. One of the problems i have with what obama did is hes always signing executive orders. He doesnt bring people into his office are you going to refuse to do executive orders as president . I wont refuse it. Youll do them, toorchlts ill do a lot of right things. Honest with you. What hes done on immigration, when he signed those papers. Now fortunately the courts all of a sudden have done a termination. But one of the beautiful things about executive orders from my standpoint is if i get elected many executive order he is signed the first day theyll be unsigned . I understand that, but youre willing to use them, too . Im not going to rule it out. Final question because i know im going to use them much better and theyll serve a much better purpose than what hes done. On tuesday well hear the president say the state of our union is in some words strong, vibrant, all this stuff. What would you say . One year from now it could be you giving this speech to congress, a version of it, we dont call it state of the union in the first one, but a joint session speech. How would you describe the state of the union right now . Now more to a couple years . Now or in a year. Now its a mess. Youd go up and there and say mess. I wouldnt say that. Youre asking me for an opinion. Obama is going to say what he will say. But i think right now the state of our union is a mess. We cant beat isis, our military is falling back, its not being properly taken care of, our vets arent being properly taken care of, obamacare as you know is going to fail very soon and probably in 17. We dont have borders, we dont have anything. If i theme in two years and making a speech i say were Getting Better fast. In that first speech to your first 100 days agenda. What are the four issues . I want to build our military bigger and better and stronger. Number one. I want to take care of our veterans. I want to take care of. Theyre being taken care of horribly. I want to fix our health care system. I want to create borders so we have a country. Right now we dont a country. We have borders where people walk across and do whatever they want to do and they have babies and the babies become citizens and we have to take care of them. We deal many, many things and make America Great again. Thats what i want to do. A bunch of billionaires around the world, zuckerberg, they want to give away more than half of their wealth at some point to philanthropic projects. Carl icahn is the guy who signed on to this. He endorsed me. Im sure people have asked they have asked me. Why havent you done it . Im oldfashioned. I have wonderful children doing a wonderful job and i believe in that and we employ thousands and thousands of people and i like the concept of keeping the Company Going as opposed to away. So right now i mean perhaps i shouldnt be saying this but im of the old school. Id like to see my children take this Great Company that ive built and it is a Great Company and id like to see it go on for a long time creating jobs, lots of money, pay lots of taxes, give lots of money away. Id make lots of big contributions. I like that better. Mr. Trump, until we meet again. Thank you. One note from our friends at politifact about the interview. Theyve done initial fact checking. Donald trump said the five prisoners who were swapped for bo bergdahl are back on the battlefield. Well, politifact finds that to be false. Officials say they are still in qatar, however is one is suspected of trying to contact taliban associates. More from politifact and my interview with mr. Trump on my web site, meetthepressnbc. Com. Coming up, theres no doubt among voters, but also land wringing among the socalled republican establishment. Who fear that trump at the top of the ticket could be a disaster. When we come back, does the establishment have a chance or plan to stop the two those new glasses . They are. Do i look smarter . Yeah, a little. Youre making money now, are you investing . Well, ive been doing some research. Let me introduce you to our broker. How much does he charge . I dont know. Okay. Uh, do you get your fees back if youre not happy . dad laughs wow, youre laughing. Thats not the way the world works. Well, the worlds changing. Are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed . Wealth management, at charles schwab. I have asthma. One of many pieces in my life. So when my asthma symptoms kept coming back on my longterm control medicine, i talked to my doctor and found a missing piece in my asthma treatment. Oncedaily breo prevents asthma symptoms. Breo is for adults with asthma not well controlled on a longterm asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. For sudden breathing problems. 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My doctor said Preservision Areds 2 has the exact nutrient formula that the National Eye Institute recommends to help reduce the risk of progression of moderate to advanced amd. After 15 years of clinical studies. Preservision areds 2. Because my eyes are everything. In past president ial years, conservatives battled each other to be the last man standing only to watch the socalled establishment candidate win in the end. This year its the fight among become a circular firing squad. I just honestly dont believe that the next president of the United States and the republican nominee should be someone like Chris Christie who supports common core, who has personally donated to planned parenthood, who got into politics to begin with in order to pass gun control. I believe politicians ought to show up to work. I apologize. I think politicians shouldnt get paid if they dont show up. I dont care whether your name is barack obama, ted cruz or marco rubio, youve never run a thing of consequence in your life. And while the secondtier candidates have been going after each other, establishment spit balling on how to take down trump has ended up on the cover of the New York Times today and the Washington Post but has produced few tangible results. With iowa just three weeks away, the establishment is terrified of either trump, maybe more so by ted cruz at the top of the ticket. Im joined by alex castellanos, who has worked on campaigns for the biggest names in the gop including the bushes, jeb and george w. Mitt romney, heres ben bush campaigns and the scott walker campaign. The panel is here but let me start with you, alex. The week began with alex castellanos, famed republican consultant is briefing donors looking for people to start to buy into your antitrump ad campaign and yet you found no takers. No takers. Its too confusing this year for the establishment. Its getting late in the game. If you disqualify trump, you could help ted cruz. The establishment doesnt want that. If you disqualify cruz, you could help trump. So a lot of the establishment is just sitting on the sidelines and i think the moment to go after either has passed. Its too late . Its too late. And it just it twothirds of the party is in one of those guys pocket. Onethird is in the establishment lane. That doesnt auger well for the beyond New Hampshire. Ben, heres what i dont understand. The week by beating each other, laying off cruz and trump. Maybe now theyll find out trump wants to take cruz on and that might make them happy but it seems beating each other up is no way to help each other. Its a demolition dur biand they know one will survive, has to survive, so they have to climb over their brothers back before they can manage to take on trump or cruz. Let me bring in the rest of the panel here, helene cooper, pentagon correspondent for the New York Times, jeff greenfield, long time correspondent for Many Networks not named nbc and writes for politico politico. Robert costa of the Washington Post and Jennifer Jacobs of the jennifer, let me start with you and you can toss questions to alex and ben as well. Cruise v. Trump, trump wants to take cruz on. Can trump beat cruz in iowa . Its probably going to be very close and you start to detect nervousness in both of their voices right now. You have got trump really trying to lower expectations in iowa you if i dont win iowa its because those people hardly ever get it right. They dont pick winners. Now you have cruz coming forward and changing the way he speaks about ethanol in iowa which is really important. And so you see them really gong at each other in ways that iowans are starting to detect both of them seem worried. Right now cruz has the advantage and hes very popular. Our last poll showed 73 think favorably of him. Trump is 57 favorable and republicans are more dug in against donald trump in iowa. You have 30 saying they will never caucus for donald trump cruz. Trump is running the smartest campaign of anyone right now because hes engaging cruz in iowa because he wants to be the alternative to cruz should cruz win in iowa as they go to New Hampshire trump could end up being the establishment alternative to cruz. And thats whats happening here. Go ahead, jeff. Heres what strikes me. The Iowa Caucuses historically have meant nothing in the Republican Party. Misunderstandings. By the way, trump is bringing up in his rallies, now iowa, dont you want to pick a winner for once . One of the many reasons Iowa Caucuses are a blight on the system but thats me. It is just you. Heres my question. In 08 when obama won in iowa, the resonance was this. In an africanamerican can win in an almost all white state, the entire africanamerican vote instead of going between clinton and obama moved to obama. If iowa shows if trump can show that his supporters, who everybody has said well, theyll never turn out if they turn out in a state that makes participation as hard as iowa, doesnt that suggest among the republicans that this time iowa may actually set a pattern thats not going to be stopped. If trump wins iowa, well all be wearing combovers, that will be it, that will be the race. I wont be wearing a combover. Fair enough. [ laughter ] part of what you have to realize about the way this is going to play out is that the first four states have less importance and less rl vance for republicans. So theres a lot of maneuvering amongst all the candidates to play after march 1 and into the calendar. Whats interesting and we began this segment by wondering wheres the establishment. Are they antitrump or anticruz . Trump opened up the canadian birther issue, robert. What was amazing is watch this little montage we put together of republicans jumping on that trump bandwagon. Watch. From teds standpoint and from the partys standpoint, he had to solve this problem because the democrats will sue him. I find it odd that senator ted cruz did not renounce his dual Canadian Citizenship until 2014 when it became clear he was running for president. I truly believe he is eligible, you know, to be Prime Minister of canada. Im not a constitutional scholar on that. But i think its worth looking into. [ laughter ] am i the judge . Youre the attorney. I want judge judy to do this. Robert, ted cruz is now very concerned about this. In fact, he addressed this again last night. Theyve released birth certificates of his mother. Here he is last night in iowa. By virtue of being born to my mother in calgary i was a citizen by birth. You know what the American People are interested in . Who is prepared to be commander in chief . And i recognize that there are candidates in the field that dont want to talk about those issues and they want to instead encourage the good people of the media to go down rabbit trails and engage in circus sideshows. Somebody got under cruises skin. That was the first time ive seen him less optimistic on the trail. Speaking of the cruz campaign, they believe this question has been addressed but talking to cruz allies, friends of the candidate, theyre worried he seems rattled. This for someone so disciplined as a candidate finally reacting in a way that shows trump has gotten to him. Its so fascinating because in 2008 when these exact same questions were raised about john mccain, the day after the story broke i remember carl holt, our congressional correspondent, went to the hill and Claire Mccaskell had written out on her legal pad a bill that they were all going to vote for to say that john mccain is a natural born citizen and they all did it. Id like to see if shell do this for cruz. How many votes would it get in the senate . [ laughter ] Establishment Republicans are jumping on cruz for this because they fear him as a republican nominee more than they fear trump. Theyre beginning to get comfortable with the idea that trump, okay, hes a deal maker, a salesman, hell adapt, hell make the next deal, he could run left of hillary, whatever. But cruz is kind of bound to who he is and they fear he might use thats the sense i get. Suddenly now if youre going to make a pick, well pick trump over cruz. Donald trump is bringing people who arent republicans into the party to vote for him. Ted cruz has said his strategy is to expand the base. Thats tougher. Okay, five months ago i never would have heard those words out of ben ginsburgs mouth. Donald trump is better for the top of the ticket. But chuck last call. The rhinos who are left and they are moderates in the Republican Party. Theyre all in santa barbara, california. Ive talked to them in other places. But some are saying on grounds of temperament, thats the issue they think will separate them from trump. Are you comfortable with the idea of this man the same temperament that attracts reagan democrats. Are you comfortable with this man in charge of the Nuclear Codes . I think thats a hill for trump. That could be an ad we might see by somebody. All right, lively conversation, thank you all. Well be back in a moment with the role president obama hopes to play in the president ial hes alr the flu virus hits big. 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Welcome back, tuesday is president obamas final state of the Union Address and he has signalled this week that he doesnt intend to go quietly, unveiling some executive action on gun control and what was an emotional speech at the white house. But tuesday isnt just about his last year in office. Its about an attempt to set the agenda for the president ial campaign and he made that clear in a New York Times oped on friday when he state head would not campaign for any candidate who does not support his common sense gun reform. Looking ahead to tuesday and house chief of staff dennis mcdonough, mr. Mcdonough, welcome back to meet the press. Thanks for having me, chuck. The president said he would make it a litmus test for his support in 2016. Theres an active democratic primary in here and one of the common sense gun reform he is wrote about having to do with giving immunity to gun manufacturers. One of the two main candidates, senator Bernie Sanders, voted for legislation that gave immunity. Does that mean the president could not support Bernie Sanders if he were the nominee . This isnt only about the primary. We have a third of the senate thats running, all the house thats running, the statehouses and governorships across the country where this will be an issue on the ballot, it should be. And thats what the president is saying. So when it comes down the primary well see who the nominee is. Thats the job of the party to make the decisions and theyll take a hard look at the agendas and positions of those candidates and make decisions. The Sanders Campaign claims there is no daylight between if he supports immunity for gun manufacturers, isnt that daylight . Im not doing a lot of if thens. Ive noticed after the last couple days since the president said that there has been some movement on this question. The immunity specifically. So if we continue to see that towards overall support for common sense gun laws thats what were looking for. But its remarkable. The president is not committing to supporting one of the two major Democratic Candidates because of the gun issue, correct . No, the president is saying that across the board hes going to be a singlingissue voter on this. He thinks that makes sense given the enormity of the challenge 30, 000 deaths a year. Over 20,000 people under 18 in the last decade killed by gun violence or accidents. More than 500 police officers. So same to say enough is enough and thats what the president is saying. When could we expect him to make his choice on who he supports in the democratic primary. Well do what has been done nominee is set, the president will be out there. So he wont go early . No. He wont use the gun issue as an excuse to say im going to support secretary clinton. No. We have noticed hes met privately with her in the last six months. Unless you havent told us something, hes yet to meet one on one with Bernie Sanders. He meets with all of our senators, including senator sanders hes had a one on one recently. Clinton . I havent wracked them up on how many times hes seen who but he has seen senator sanders both with the Senate Democratic caucus and privately so well continue to do that. Hes a leading senator and will continue to do just that. Lets move the state of the union. Before i get to how you want to tack about it i want to get you to respond to what donald trump said how he would describe the state of the union. The state of our union is mess. We cant beat isis, our military is falling back, its not being vets arent being properly taken care of. Obamacare is going to fail very soon and probably in 17 our health care. We dont have borders. We dont have anything. Your response . Its hard to segregate him and all the other candidates out there scheming to run down america. I dont get it. What i see is an america that is surging. 292,000 new jobs just the other day. The fastestreduction in unemployment in more than three decades over the past few years and the biggest job growth since the 1990s when there also happened to be a democrat in the white house. So this is what well continue to do is try to make sure were growing to economy, were on the offense against isil and the others and i do not understand why the republicans, each of them, including the one we just saw, continue to run down america. You used the phrase run down america. You believe theyre being too pessimistic. Even decide for yourself. Do you think thats having a negative impact . I think its not sats factual. I dont understand why theyre doing it. What we see everyday is not that were afraid of the future here, well the party youll hear this on tuesday night and the president is somebody outlining a vision as a president where we will make sure that everybody has an opportunity in this economy, a changing economy. We use the elements of our power to secure not only the United States but our friends and allies across the board and we will make sure, chuck, that everybodys voice is heard in this democracy. Thats how weve been strong over the course of the time. You will hear a big optimistic view of america. You have set a high bar with the state of the union saying its going to be unlike anything youve seen before. What does that mean . Im not sure who you mean by you guys. Let me tell you what this guy thinks. Were not going to be into the president said last year look, i dont want it to be a list of policy choices. Youll hear a lot about that. But what he wants to do is talk about a vision for the future of this country. We feel like we can win this future, we feel very optimistic, thats a big difference between us and whats going on in this debate and thats what you hear about tuesday fight. A couple of other domestic questions. The flint quarter crisis. So far the state hasnt asked for federal help. Are you waiting if for state to ask for federal help or are you going to intervene . This appears to be a major crisis. Very concerned about it but i dont have any news to make with you on that, chuck. Nobodys asked you anything yet . Were watching it closely but nobodys asked us anything. Are you prepared to wait . Were going to watch this closely. Im not going to im going to be very careful. One of your predecessors as chief of staff is now the mayor of chicago. The president endorsed him. The president campaigned for him. Does the president still have confidence in rahm emanuel as mayor . I had a chance to be back in chicago, actually, my inlaws live in chicago. Opportunities there are boundless. So i think what the president sees is a steady and people of chicago and the mayor of chicago that continue to do very good work. So hes still confident in rahm emanuel to do the job . The president is and i just saw it up close and personal. Thanks for coming. Chuck, thanks for having me. Go pat go. Appreciate that. A rare treat from a vikings fan. Coming up, a rare surprise in our poll. Bernie sanders has all but caught Hillary Clinton in iowa. Another sign that before i had the shooting, burning, pinsandneedles of diabetic nerve pain, these feet served my country, carried the weight of a family, and walked a daughter down the aisle. But i couldnt bear my diabetic nerve pain any longer. So i talked to my doctor and he prescribed lyrica. Nerve damage from diabetes causes diabetic nerve pain. Lyrica is fda approved to treat this pain from moderate to even severe diabetic nerve pain. Or suicidal thoughts or actions. 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Discuss with the panel, jeff greenfield, helene cooper, Jennifer Jacobs and robert costa is here. Im going to start with you, jennifer. Its a big difference in our iowa poll than what you showed a couple weeks ago. We have Bernie Sanders within three points of Hillary Clinton in iowa. We always knew sanders home state neighbor in New Hampshire. Do these numbers surprise you . Its amazing. Think of where he was at in iowa in january a year ago. Nobody knew we asked what do you think about Bernie Sanders . No one knew who he was. So yeah, but dont forget, theres still really strong passion for Hillary Clinton in iowa. Just yesterday they had 500 volunteers turn out at 9 00 in the morning, frigid weather, lousy conditions to knock on doors and make phone calls for her so there is passion for her as well. But she cant afford to lose both states. No. That turns into hand wringing, joe bidens phone starts ringing. Kick in. That would be difficult is but i dont think thats going always i hear you. For the last year ive done but but ill be shock i was shocked by that poll. I was, too. I will be very, very surprised if she loses if she doesnt win iowa by a substantial not substantial but a comfortable margin. I was shocked by this result but then i saw this ad running in iowa and New Hampshire. I want to play a piece, jeff, because its a tell. Heres a new Hillary Clinton ad airing today in iowa and New Hampshire. Think about it. I would bomb the [ bleep ] out of them. One of these republicans carpet bomb them into oblivion. Could actually be president. Sit down and shut up whos the one candidate who can stop them . Hillary clinton. Jeff . Thats an electability ad. Whos the one candidate who can stop them. That means thats a concession theyve lost the passion. Right. When you hire an announcer that talks like this, it means you really want to scare people. They want to scare people about is if you dont pick Hillary Clinton, one of these can win. Those poll numbers, even though we know the primary poll numbers can be tenuous in a place like iowa. They enjoy changing their minds. But heres the question if she loses iowa and New Hampshire, and the assumption is, well whats plan b . The democrats i have thought for a while may have been building a trap for themselves where theres no alternative if this obvious frontrunner presumptive nominee looks weak. Whats plan b. And robert just this week another email surfaces that then suddenly wonders where theres question of what she was talking about. Make classified information on a declassified system but they have an explanation, but its a reminder oh, by the way, that sits out here. For Many Democrats that seems to be a general election issue. When you look at iowa and New Hampshire, sanders has engaged activists on his side. They want to see the postobama Democratic Party move to the left. But other states, south carolina, more regular democratic states, theyre still with clinton to sanders has to prove he had the network even if he has a few victories early on. However, helene, if iowa and New Hampshire both go sanders this idea, ive heard from democrats, what happens in iowa and New Hampshire stays in iowa and New Hampshire why are we so sure that wasnt the case for barack obama . No but this is different. You have so many other primaries to come after that. I think its hard for me to Bernie Sanders once he leaves New Hampshire. I dont see it. I want to remind you that there was a clinton that didnt compete in iowa and lost New Hampshire. I know. And wound up with the nomination. He waited i believe its the longest any democratic nominee went without winning a primary until he won the georgia primary. In that case what ben again ginsburg said about the republican. Write off iowa and New Hampshire and wait for the big states. It means the democrats will be sweating buckets about what this means for clintons popularity. Shes not going to lose iowa. Im putting my its interesting here. Bernie sanders is starting to act like a candidate who wants to win and heres what the tell was for me. He jumped on the bill clinton stuff this trump brought up. Heres his answer. Look, Hillary Clinton is not bill clinton. But bill clinton did i think we can all acknowledge was totally, totally, totally disgraceful and unacceptable. Clinton, im not running against bill clinton, though i gather hes been in iowa recently. Thats as close as youll hear Bernie Sanders going after the clinton. But that was more than i expect it. Im not running against bill clinton and by the way, totally, totally, totally. You talk do people in iowa, they love bill clinton, they think hes a great communicator, they he h will help blunt bernies appeal, they think her campaign can unleash fire on donald trump. They think hes a huge asset. I am stunned by the willingness of some of the clinton supporters to fold everything bill clinton is accused of as a private matter. Flanderland in philandering is a private matter. What there are some in clinton world are very nervous about it. You know, trump could help sanders. Trump based on my reporting will clinton on the campaign trail and that makes it an issue. Im sorry. The clinton folks suddenly acted differently this week you could see it. I wonder if it was too soon to bring him in. I dont think they thought it was but suddenly now theyre you see a little change in there. Lets sneak a quick break, well be back in 45 seconds with our end game segment. If youre wondering whats you can collect rainwater to shower with, but there are easier ways to go green. Which conserves water and lowers your bill. Youll sing long ballads in the rain and short ditties in the shower. The more you know end game time. The panel is here. Whats fuelling trump, robert . And i say this in that and i think we know i want to put up a quick graphic here, folks see it. But its the income, its the wage issue that i think is fuelling trump more. Here we had a great economic report. I brought it up with trump and trump immediately went to oh, yeah, but these people havent gotten a wage increase. Theyre right. This came from the long time former treasury official and only the top 10 of americans by income have seen real wages go up in the last ten years. The less you make, the more youve seen your wages decrease. I was flipping through my notebook the other day and i found the most enthusiastic who lack a College Education between the ages of 35 and 55. Theyre think economy is killing them. Trump talks about scarred landscapes across the rust belt. He talks about factories being taken down. Thats connecting with these voters and theyre not ideological. They like trump because he seems to have answers. And then throw in this. I want to bring up this other story. Hes talked about distrust from political leaders and what do we have in michigan . This flint, michigan, issue where clearly the Governors Office, somebody in the Governors Office was too passive about it. The last time i was here was right after paris and there was a notion this is going to help the insiders and experts and i thought what if the people think the experts have given us the iraq war and libya. If the experts at home including eight years of obama have given us a come politely distorted winners and losers picture and they cant keep kids from drinking leadbased water in flint, why is at historic levels . Not to mention that distrust, not just in politics, in almost every institution has plummeted . I look at these two weeks, a democratic mayor in chicago, the distrust issues are high. Republican governor of michigan, both of them actually technocrats, theyre not ideological warriors, theyre technocrats who we thought at a minimum were the competent guy. We did. But this is so big. When you Start Talking about water, this is so basic, thats so basic and that really feeds this distrust people have. Its like this is from this is not a third world country. Its emblematic of somewhat so many people think is wrong with america right now. Before i let you go, jennifer, we had another part of our poll that will if you assume an expanded electorate in iowa, donald trump actually leads cruz very narrow. We measured two different electorates, traditional caucus electorate or the what if he brings more people. Whats your sense in the trump there is a new slice of electorate out there. We know a lot of iowans are intimidated by the caucus process. They think of it as the realm of only the super hard core activists. But ive seen the way the iowa team for trump trains those in comers, those people who havent caucused before and they keep their presentation simple and fun and you have trump in ottumwa yesterday, his Political Team as people were coming in the door were literally saying this is where you should go in your neighborhood on february 1 to vote. Smart strategy. Then you have trump himself saying, hey, listen, dont stay home, dont stay home. Note, he didnt say please but at least hes asking and you hear an insult, too but hes asking them and people will listen. They were waiting in line, it was zero degrees. I think they do show up and you look at who trump has working for them. Chuck laudner, he helped santorum win in the 2012. Ive been going to see those trump voters. The trump bus goes to the go to gop events but they shop trump. I want to point out for decades the hollywood mostly liberal writers have predicted this populist who will break up politics, disruptive force. And i dont think in any way weve seen its turned out to be a bloviating billionaire with weird hair. This seems to be i dont think this is what they had in mind. Hes a bully but hes there bully. I want to put myself on being the side of antiwashington. Im going to be aunt washington today. I agree, these washington insiders dont know what theyre doing, they think they can play football. Its good midwestern manufacturing towns, the heartland of america like the green bay packers. They will come to washington and show the outsiders can beat the insiders. So take that, you washington fans. Thats all we have for today, great panel, thank you, guys. Go pack, go. Well be back next week because press. Announcer the following paid presentation for the power Pressure Cooker xl is brought to you by Tristar Products incorporated. Introducing the power Pressure Cooker xl, the revolutionary Kitchen Technology that infuses flavor