But i also have to ask you, why did you decide to talk to our tea given the, you know, the potential academic and professional repercussions that you may face . Well, im some one who believes that we should keep the corridors of communication, even as the relationship between russia and the United States gets worse and worse, even as the war goes on and casualties continue to mount. I think that that, you know, dialogue is always better than no dialogue. So thats why im sitting here, having this conversation with you. Thank you for that. And the previous time i interviewed you was, i think in the summer of 2017, when we thought that the relationship in russia in the United States, him the lowest point after crimea and all these to the russian mythology surrounding the trump administration. This is the way seen from moscow at least. But in hindsight, it seems that the back back then, it wasnt that bad. Do you think we have the rock bottom already or the worse is yet to come . Its hard to say, i mean were, we are clearly at one of the lowest points in us, russian relations and i would clue include the cold war. Yeah. Mad. I think this is as, as dangerous a moment as weve seen. Because right now are in a hot war, in which bombs are dropping missiles or flying. Fortunately, russia is not, you know, war with nato. But its conceivable that this war could spread, you know, many of us feared, going back to 2014, that in the russian annexation of crimea intervention in don abbas could just be the beginning. And at some point, russia might try to create a land bridge between don boss and crimea. That seems to be whats happening as we speak. Lets talk about what do you think is the reasoning for such dramatic action . Because after the creamy in operation, i fully agree with you. Despite all the Domestic Support that had had to rush, i had to pe, he does have central cause, both in terms of sanctions, you know, diplomatic pressure loss, opportunities, etc. Now what we are having in your brain is a of much bigger scale, human suffering, destruction, a huge cost economic costs to russia. And yes, i think youve studied russia for quite some time. And you, i think know that putin is a rational leader. Why do you think he made the decision that he made . Well, you know, im, im glad you, you raised this issue, put this rationality because im someone who did see guten as aggressive as difficult as expansion as but as calculating as rationalist. He took risks, but they tended to be relatively small risks at low cost grabbing se yet to of hows the crimea don boss going into syria, nor gone, or car box libya. These were relatively a misstatement. I mean there, there were rushes involvement in all those territories. But they were different in nature, you know, south i city is not part of russia at this point of time. Just as no one of the kind of up by the way, leave is not buying a fresh and neither is serious. So, you know, lets say lets, you know, it be differentiated for the sake of your own students. I think you dont want to lump over there. Yeah. The 2nd, hows the, arent that different from crimea and dont boss. Theyre both land grabs into their neighbors country. Yes, i agree with you, syria and libya are different, but the point here is that these were relatively small operations going in to ukraine, is different. Im with someone who did not think that quote was actually done to invade ukraine. Because i thought it was such a miscalculation, such a dangerous and reckless move. And i think that book and really was delusional. He believed what he said. He believed that behind every ukrainian was a want to be russia and, and that the Russian Troops would go into your brain. And the russian of the Ukrainian Military would collapse and everybody would say, oh, thank god the russians are here. Thats, thats ukraine, that doesnt exist ever since 2014, including an eastern ukraine. Ukrainians want nothing to do with rush. I would have thought that couldnt understood that. Thats why his invasion has been such a miscalculation and has gone so poorly. He misunderstood ukraine. I think youre operating on the assumption that russia is, will be trying to essentially swallow your brain, Incorporated Territory into russia proper. And i hear a lot of high profile russian analysts arguing against that. They believe that that is going to be the worst possible scenario for russia and neither put in, nor any of his generals ever voiced such an intention on the record. So again, if we try to same stay in your previous framework of putin being irrational rather than delusional actor what could possibly be the rationality and impressing you on that because you actually laid it out in, in, in your article. Scare me for once mentioned nathan here. Well, i mean, i think that the aims have shifted. I would agree with you or your russian colleagues. I dont expect russia to try to swallow. You pray now because i think theyve realised that it would be swallowing a porcupine. That its not going to work that there are 44000000. 00 saving ukrainians. Who would marshall an insurgency against a Russian Occupation . Thats my assessment of why russia has changed its war aims to try to enlarge its land to grab in eastern ukraine, have a bigger chunk of don boss and connected to crimea. Im guessing that russia wont continue to push to the west, but who knows . My fear here is the isnt as calculating and rational as he used to be, and my evidence for that is the invasion of ukraine itself. It was a mistake in a move as far as nato is concerned. Theres no question that be enlargement of data going back to the 1990 s has been a major source of grievance between russia and the west. But i do say that there was a conversation taking place late last year into early this year that gave the wiggle room that he needed by then said schools out ukrainian membership is not under consideration. The president of france talked about finland, ization, president zalinski himself said, maybe this nato membership thing isnt going to happen if potent had wanted to. He had trade space, he could have picked up on those leads, but he didnt. And that says to me, that he wanted to invade, he had already made the decision to invade, and thats why i did. Well, i was a captain on that specific point. Both you and i know that there was a diplomatic effort to settle this peacefully without the use of military force. There were a couple of phone calls in the kremlin and the white house throughout the year. And there was a meeting in geneva. Weve been pushing them by then a long meeting during which they, according to my sources, discussed different ways that russia and america exert that influence. It influences on neighboring populations and neighboring countries and peoples. They also discuss security sensibilities. And i was told, at least that they reached a 10 Year Agreement to lee lee been left leave. And thats why the diplomatic effort continued after that. Why do you think it didnt work out at the end . I dont know what the kremlin thinking was on ukraine, but clearly they were considering military intervention for quite some time. We saw the mobilization of forces earlier last year than those forces pulled back. Then late last year we said we start to see a very substantial deployment of forces, a close to 200000 on 3 sides the south. The east and the north are really threatening to carry out what has happened, which was a full scale invasion of the country. Why couldnt decided to do that rather than to stay at the negotiating table . I dont know. This is an issue that could have and should have been resolved through diplomacy. For some reason, you probably know better than i couldnt decided that his preferred option was to use military force. I think part of the problem here is that he realised that he was, quote, unquote, losing ukraine, that ever since 2014, after the russian and then intervention. Ukraine was really beginning to chart its own course. It was no longer wanted to be part of a russian sphere of influence that appeared to be intolerable to mr. Brewton. He said, as much in his speeches, he said, ukraine as part of russia, ukraine doesnt deserve to exist as an independent state professor of china. You are not accurate, he never said about ukraine not deserving to exist as a sovereign state. Although he did say that there are many cultural historical on ethnic links between our peoples. And he doesnt even believe that the russian and ukrainian people historically apart. So one collective. Now having said that, i do think that he was afraid of losing ukraine, but on the different ground, because starting in 201314 ukraine was increasingly militarized by various nato members, without even assuming nature treaty obligations. Dont you think that in and of itself presented a major strategic on their ability for russia, nato, using ukraine, prosecuting essentially ukrainian territory for its own means without even taking the obligations to protect it. When i comes to shop the world, number one, he did say that ukraine is part of russia, and he, he did refer to the linguistic historical religious ties. And yes, there are such ties. But that doesnt mean that russia has a right to invade and try to occupy its country. Those days are long. I agree with you 100 percent, but it also doesnt mean that your brain has the right of again prostituting its land to allow b hostile military alliance to poses a major strategic threat for us. And you, yourself are on record saying that all major powers desire strategic breathing room. How else could russia ensure that strategic breathing room without your brain being either neutral or in some other, under some other agreement that would allow russian not to be fearful about, you know, 3 minutes that it would take for rockets to launch from key of to moscow . Well, i object to the language, the cube is prostituted itself. Keith was making its own sovereign choices about how it wanted to conduct its foreign policy. First of all, 2nd of all, this, the military support that nato gave to ukraine over the last several years. Going back to 2014 was actually quite limited. Nato provided eventually under the trunk administration, a limited number of javelins, anti tank weapons, but was otherwise giving mostly small arms, mostly training, mostly advice. It was not given ukraine, the ability to pose a military threat to russia. There were no missiles, there would not be any missiles that you train can use to strike against russia, but i will grant you this. I can understand why. D russia would feel uncomfortable with nato come and closer, closer to miss borders. But thats why i think this is an issue that could have and should have been resolved at the negotiating table. But lets be honest. You brain was not given the kinds of weaponry. And its still not being given the kinds of weaponry that pose a threat to moscow or russian territory. That is simply a false claim. Professor captain, i really really want to return to this going, but after a very short break, can we do that in a few moments . Sure. Ah ah ah ah ah, well oh oh oh oh, i ah with ah welcome back to wells fargo with charles corruption, senior fellow at the council for Foreign Relations and professor of International Affairs at georgetown university. For his a question before they break, you mentioned that it was a false premise of mine to suggest that, you know, nato was militarize in ukraine than ever presented any military to russian. I want to mention 2 points here. Before doing this show i was there workers funding and i was on the ground in libya and syria, and it was pretty easy to observe there that you dont need to heavily on the entire population. The entire country to destabilize it. You know, it takes, you know, only a small minority to wreak, care, rushes, history itself is, is a good example of that. And the 2nd point is that im sure youre following the Munich Security Conference that said top security conference in the, in the west. And it was at that conference that president allows you earlier this year, openly talk about acquiring the idea of acquiring Nuclear Weapons. And no one in the audience or no one in western capitals said anything to that effect, even though presumably there are still non pro nuclear, non proliferation regime in place around the world. Dont you think that that in of itself, the kind of signals that are well, possibly anxious moscow could have interpreted, not the way that you would want it to interpret . Well, again, its kind of a preposterous idea that ukraine is going to attack russia. Ukraine mines its own business. Ukraine has been reform. It gets military, making it more capable, but showing no signs of having aggressive intent against anybody. So the idea, the idea that russia invaded ukraine to neutralize a threat, thats simply not credible. Its simply not credible. The bigger issue of nato enlargement and nato membership, i understand, but there was no imminent threat that warranted rush and military intervention. This is the problem that should have been resolved, but the negotiating table couldnt owns this war. Well, professor captain, i agree with you. 100 percent and owns this war in those and just put in, but also russia. We will bury this. We will carry rather this send for years, decades and perhaps even generations to come. This is a huge tragedy for all of us. We all have relatives in ukraine and they call us actually every single day we are, you know, very much connected to that conflict. No illusions about that. But at the end of the day, put in is the president of russia. And he has obligations before russia in defending its strategic security. Dont you think again and we keep circling around that question that the west, who have been a little bit more accommodating, if not for the sake of russia, then for the sake of ukraine, in providing russia with the security that it asked for. And what it asked for is simply the guarantees of neutrality and ukraine, not joining any other military alliances. Whats the, whats the goal was the purpose of repeating that ukraine can join neither one day. Whats the benefit of that . Tell me . Well, i think were in agreement that this war is a tragedy and that there are no winter. I do think that the, the rub here was the tension between the principal, the west wanted to stand by its principal, but natos doors were open. That countries in a world of sovereignty and liberal democracy should be able to make their own choices that russia should have a veto over the choices of free and independent countries. But the reality was the ukrainian membership in nato. Precisely for the reasons that weve been talking about was not under consideration, it was not imminent. It was not on the agenda. That should have been that should have been enough to provide mr. Pohden and his colleagues, the leader room, to find a way under the circumstances. I dont understand why Mister Brewton opted for a military invasion, which is going to be a huge cost for his country for a very long time to come. I really want to ask you about the matter of principle because, and this is a very hot issue here, and you wrote recently that washingtons commitment to keeping native doors open to ukraine speaking about not being under the consideration was a quote, a laudable and principle stand against an autocratic russia, and as far as i can see that i have an extended family in ukraine, some of them i bomb shelters. And these people believe that ukraine was very cynically used by america and abandoned by america in the time of need. It now has to deal one on its own with a much stronger army. Can you explain me . What is so laudable . What is the principal about that . Whats laudable in principle about it is number one that the United States has in its dna. The idea that people should be free and it is seen later when large meant as a tool for standing by that principle, i think thats one of the reasons that mister biden, the secretary general of nato, other name, their leaders, were unwilling to renounce that principle. But its not accurate to say that ukraine is on its own. Ukraine has enormous support. Ukraine is getting a huge amount of political, economic, and military support from nato countries. Even though a decision has been made correct in my mind, not to escalate not to put boots on the ground, not to enforce the no fly zone. Because that would mean war between nato and russia back could need world war 3. Now, you mentioned that need to supposedly being very deliberate not to, you know, make provocative gestures towards russia and just the other day american secretaries of defense and state met with some of their allies at the American Military base in germany to discuss the possible supplies of weapons, which are going to be used against the russian army. Now, i know that you advised president obama on european affairs, so im sure you understand implications and sort of historic associations annotations of anyone needing at a military base in germany to discuss the supply of arms to be used against the regular russian army. Do you understand how dangerous it could be . I mean, im asking you as a person who was born in saint petersburg, i mean my own family suffer it under the siege. Us has put in the family. I mean, you can laugh at that, but we all carry that in in our rod. No, i understand that i am, im, im smiling because its, its russia that has attacked ukraine. Russia has started this war and made oh, in the United States are providing the ukrainians, the ability to defend themselves. And they have been quite explicit about avoiding the kinds of weapons that could lead to potential escalation. So on the contrary, the u. S. Is not abandon the ukraine, its helping the ukrainians fight back. Am ukrainians, have done a remarkable job. But lets be honest. The risk of escalation is still considerable. Russia might decide to interdict weapons coming in from nato territory. Weve heard russia threatening the potential use of Nuclear Weapons which is unthinkable. And thats why i think we need to see the escalation and a ceasefire and a diplomatic effort as soon as possible to avoid those much more dangerous outcomes. You mentioned recently that the United States in the light of all that danger, it needs to return to reality. And when i was a student in america, our professor is used to insist on operationalizing abstract concepts. Can i ask you for the same favorite . Can you actually explain exactly how the United States would return to reality . Because as far as most is concerned, american actions are totally illogical when it comes both to russia and much of the rest of the world. You mentioned the idealistic orientation that the United States supposedly has and you know, banding, the art of history towards justice. We see in a completely different lives with millions of people sent to that data in the middle east in afghanistan. And now in ukraine, by the americans trying to make this world a better place. Well, you know, i think i balance the United States has succeeded in making the world a more decent place for our international audience. One recent example when american efforts, especially Defense Associated efforts, you know, related to nato and spreading of democracy. When that lets you lasting piece of stable piece as you like to talk about. Well, you know, i would go back to world war 2. When the United States intervene to help defeat nazi germany and imperial japan, and weve seen a major expansion in the footprint of democracy and freedom of the rule of law. Ever since, has the United States made mistakes . You bet. Did the wars in afghanistan and iraq turn out . Well, no, they did not, but i would say this, they were motivated by good intentions. They were motivated by the desire not just to take down extremist groups in afghanistan, but to help afghanistan stand up as a democratic pluralist, liberal country, and that effort failed. I cannot attribute, benign intent to russias use of military force. Its invasion of ukraine is a, is a, is about of aggressive territorial conquest. Russia, unfortunately, does not have the same noble aims as the United States. Professor captain, what matters in reality is not your intentions. You can ascribe to yourself, whatever. No, because you want, what matters is the result, and im asking you again, can you mention a single conflict the United States got itself involved in over the last, lets say 20 years. That last you a lasting piece. Because if you mentioned 2nd world war, we were allies back then we have no problems with the United States, a little problems with the United States. Now we are enemies precisely because the United States to give it upon itself to change the world by military means and make it far more dangerous that it wasnt the beginning. Now actually world war 2 is an important one. And again, it shows that russia and the United States can work together, and maybe one day we can get back to that, although i dont think its going to occur while mr. Brewton is the president. But i do think that even in the post cold war era, we have seen number one, the it states and nato go into a ball into the balkans and stop ethnic conflict there. There hasnt been any bloodshed in that region since the end of the dissolution of yugoslavia. And the United States has in many respects helped to bring down and fight extremism who led the counter. I so campaign, the United States, thats a war that worked at the benefit of russia. Again, has the United States made mistakes . Yes. But has it succeeded in largely taking down the Islamic State and al qaeda . Yes. Has it made the world safer from a sonic extremism . Yes. So its a, its a mixed texture. But over the course of his history, i think the United States has been on the right side. Its been on the side of democracy and freedom and justice. Unfortunately, i cannot say the same thing about russia. We are out of time, let me again express my gratitude for engaging with us in this conversation has been great talking to you. Thank you very much for that. Its been my pleasure. Lets keep the conversation go. Thanks and thank you all yours for watching hope to see you again next week on the worlds apart. Ah ah ah, ah, i do recall with this with you or is with you. Im with moscow says its raising the risk of a nuclear disaster, worse internal as you re enforce a shelly radioactive waste facility at the embattled zapper roget power plant, arson, violence and riots. Penny a face of political deadlock as a defeated president ial candidate refuses to concede. And of money 1st as tension store between washington and beijing over taiwan. It seems the actual purpose of the provocative us visit to the island was to expand. Microchip production