Obvious. And that the need to was was sheep or a water. And many of the medical also the glee enrica singers that doctors and all those who have stated that they go most good morning to include this kind of business, which courses show as hands against you cream. So this thing was coming philosophy with somebody from group out of the dormitory. Its not that it suddenly sprung up on one fine day. Ah ah ah ah hello and welcome to cross stock where all things are considered. Im peter lavelle. Western audiences have been flooded with one wave after another of propaganda when it comes to ukraine. But what matters most is the generation of political and strategic facts. For example, the induction of 4 ukranian regions into russia and the sabotage of the north stream pipelines. These realities will determine the outcome of this conflict with cross stocking. The moment of truth, im joined by my guest latimer, goldstein and providence. He is the chair of the department of slavic studies at Brown University in washington. We have michael maloof. He is a former pentagon Senior Security policy analyst and intends virginia. We have had see he is a conflict consultant and a retired u. S. Foreign Service Officer or a gentleman, cross stock rules, and the fact that means you can jump in any time you want. And i always appreciate michael, let me go to you 1st. Here. Political facts are what matter most jammed. Joseph morales said this conflict in ukraine will be one on the battlefield. The only thing hes ever said that i agree with. So if we, we have the induction of these 4 regions of ukraine into russia after referenda. And then we have this very strange, but basically very expected as sabotage of the north stream. Both are turning points and in for me, because once these provinces regions are part of russia, they will never be negotiated way. Theres no negotiation that russia will be involved in and with the sabotage of these pipelines will probably never be built. I wouldnt do it, it would build this, be blown up again. Im the quote unquote leverage moscow had with europe is gone. So where is the ever very different trajectory now . And im very emphatic when everything is said and done, one side wins and one side loses. Theres no win, win here, michael and watch in here. No, not at this point. It appears that all options have been broken now to try to reach a, a settlement on this thing that, that the hope was that there would be some form of settlement. But this, the sub blowing up of the pipeline seems to have been the proverbial straw. And i think of moscow has basically decided just to look eastward and, and go as your agent past. And that its got to be very, very difficult for a europeans and it, it really is a reflection on a wind for the us ultimately and, and its oil companies. It basically now has made europe a slave to us energy once again, because theyre going to be needing that very, very shortly. And already the u. S. Is at capacity and delivery. And the europeans are gonna be having a very, very difficult time trying to find any substitutes in the near term. I understand that a chances sholtes of germany was just in saudi arabia didnt get what he wanted. It got, once i got one shipment, one ship of okay. Okay. Okay. Be ultimate. But i also, we have to point out you that the energy that europe will be importing from the u. S. Will be very, very expensive. Okay . That is the game changer. Vladimir, let me go to you because this has been just as much a war on germany as it has been on russia. Its really quite amazing the parallels here because it germany is economy is going to have a very difficult time recovering. Remarkably, who would have thought some German Companies want to move to america, because they have cheaper prices. Okay. This is all part of the plan here, but lets stay with ukraine here. If there is going to be any kind of negotiated and the conflicts do have negotiated n, i have to wonder if kevin is even gonna be at the table. Vladimir your thoughts . Yeah, i think 1st thing you have to remember that not nato a stake story. Its kind of old slogan is to keep russia out in germany down in americans, and its blowing out the pipe is just precisely like one master stroke i would say, which accomplishes these goals. What it, what it also accomplishes. It sends a very, very kind of powerful and strong message all over the world, russia and china, in particular. I imagine the chinese a what you did with tremendous attention. I already saw some, a tweets from chinese officials. They dont buy, of course this narrative that garage is involved, they know who would need it and they know that they can be next because this is, i, you know, theyre watching a role people there which and i, what, you know, United States can do what the needs are, can do with great attention. So in the long run it might be sort of a good move, again, say in our germany and russia. But, you know, j nice, ill definitely will, will consider as taking a consideration in there for the policies. And the last point is, of course, as russia, you know, i, you know, i know in the russian culture and history is strongly be the great rations, all the stake, a where seriously tried to be partners try to learn you them was all the brothers you, them as teachers, but them always does, you know, sounds like that the more i was doing that you, they even are eastwood or inward. And i think its finally with these of each this to this point that it also says, you know, who cares what you guys do, you know, we kind of july and you, you can achieve just anything except propaganda. Accepts of, you know, the conductor of fake shem at if random selections vision changes all over the world. We can do that too. So i think i am not sure that the way as basically, you know, and they to send in the right message all over the world, the teaching people and cynicism watching out rather than go cut grading. And this is very disturbing. So that might, is succeeded in the short term of keeping germany down at benefits in the oil companies. But in the long term, it looks very as well. You can tell whats the pipeline story is very interesting. First of all, well probably never know why how it happened because no and is particularly interested other than the russians and trying to find out what happened. But i do, id like to point out, washington, never the last new cycle has been very quiet about whose fault it is. Thats really unusual, considering everything is russias fault, these a. But ted then people, there are those in europe like the polls like the baltics. They dont want to have any relationship with russia. Well, thats basically coming true right now. There wont be one, but there is a copy to that. Then what if, if, if russia is not going to have a relationship with the west, then russia is going to set its own security terms. Hence, the induction of these provinces of ukraine into russia, further, others could join it. Odessa comes to mind here. So they dont really have to care what the west care, what they think about it. They do have to worry about how that react militarily. But i mean, russia is, can do what needs to do unilaterally based on its own needs. Kev is not a reliable interlocutor. And obviously, nato is hostile. Go ahead, ted. Here, this is all the inevitable consequence of not dissolving nato back in 1990 after its reason for existence, right, nation. And weve seen over the years that there been a chance to negotiate a better balance between europe and its american sort of big brother and, and weapons provider on the one hand and rush on the other. And thats definitely gone downhill since at least a time than glad, i mean, took over is as president the 1st time around. And what weve seen recently is just an astonishing series of actions. And i wouldnt mind taking a 2nd to detail them. Youve got the provision of advance ship missiles and guidance there from and training there for, from nato to the koreans, to use, against rushing into radiation. Metals that havent been shared outside of nato. As far as i can tell you got a hearing of intelligence for the use in the assassination in the field of abreast of general officers. Youve got to use a very high tech guided missile which is accurate, and supposedly within one meter after flying for 300 kilometers to assassinate the ukrainian politician hotel. And there happened by the way to be in our teeth. Dont crew right next door to survive. Jack, but only just and finally, got the sabotage of the screen pipelines. Lets turn this around and imagine that any one of these things happen to the us. Do you think there be hesitation in declaring war yet . Well, you bring up the most important point. Let me go to michael that kind of flesh this out here because i think we all know that on friday, vladimir podium will make a public address. Its highly anticipated considering the events that have been happening. I tend to think my crystal ball reading my tea leaves here. Hes going to, he may decide to declare that the us and nato are belligerents in the conflict and ukraine. And that has huge, huge call implications. Michael though i to, i absolutely agree. We gotta, were an Uncharted Waters right now. This is this, this is a and an event that were seeing a series of events that were seeing, that there are almost out of control. Theres no, theres nobody, there is no leadership. Everyone is reacting at this point. And its going to create havoc, and its going to get worse, and i think, and i it see the russians intensifying. I would not doubt that mr. Brewton will not only declare nato and us as belligerence, but also try to maybe even consider sc, suffering diplomatic relations because the blowing up of their pipeline in effect was an act of war. So i think the and i and michael and michael, they can add to that. It is a declaration of war. The way i look at it. But michael, importantly also civilian infrastructure is no longer, you know, its not no longer for bowden. Theyve sent that message. Ok, vladimir, you are not in your head an agreement. Go ahead. Yeah, i think its a, it opens up on the under a box if you wish. And i think i want to return to this point. Were to said that it wasnt and is kind of a register about, you know, blame in russia, but also simultaneously what a here that right away in the Region Companies in the region government norwegian, represent there say we are watching for our pipeline and we are preparing all the forces of nature to defend it. So why, why are they saying that the united means like they, they, they afraid, like the answer back that they did something, and now theres a watch out. Were gonna defend our pipeline. So this is, this is a very uncharted territories and i think its a short termism. Ultimately, i have a feeling that, you know, they sort of fernanda and, you know, join, you know, this guys companys was, it was like really a decisive chest move. So i think neither decided to have them move, but i think how its going to play out eventually between the us in a debate with germany. Its unknown and i think im not sure from what weve seen so far from western leadership that they actually, you know, consider all the options, all of it and, you know, i dont think that, you know, they have stupid people, but they might have people like shorter people who sometimes base their decisions on their other kind of false information, which they get from keep government, which allows you to rate so they might base it on on the fold your premise, what vladimir of a faulty narratives create faulty policy outcomes. Were seeing this right in real time here. Gentlemen, im going to jump in here. Were going to go to a short break. And after that short break, well continue our discussion on the events in ukraine, st with ah, ah, with a do you live muscles . If you look on the initial, you want to pull up a video can use the put body. What do you do or change . But you also still wish to done those a what i see the student bus is the little gear. Lation says decent it on both a welcome back to cross cycle. All things are considered. Im peter, lets remind you. Were discussing events in ukraine. Ah ok, lets go back to 10 and tens. Many i want to, i want to flush out something you said earlier about the intelligence assistance, the ukraine by nato countries. I think that, you know, with the pipeline incident that the sabotage there in your mind as a former for foreign Service Officer. Would you be surprised, for example, that suddenly nato satellite started dropping out of the sky. This is, this is a very, very important element of ukraines defense posture right now offensive pastor considering most analysts, military people have told me that the Ukranian Army was destroyed during the summer. So in every single way russia is fighting nato. So why should those satellites stay in the sky, ted . Well, my only answer would be sort of a prayerful hope that we prevent world war 3 here. But unfortunately, kids are, cad isnt entirely legitimate attacking in a situation like this with civilian infrastructure, as you say, destroyer for that matter. The 2000000000 hotel that was targeted by, you know, a guided missile, forgot to say, for an assassination of one person. Talking about overkill. Someones got to be rational here, someones going to be reasonable, but we cant keep expecting russia to be that someone all the time without some kind of reciprocation. And as you noted earlier, its, its as though theres been a delivery or any of the bridges. So theres no going back and no one wants in washington. It seems in nato capitals. No one wants the possibility, a real negotiations for some kind of least bad alternative lasting piece. Yeah, well thats because theyve created this rhetorical environment where you cant take a word back. You cant. Because if youre reasonable, thats appeasement. Thats munich. Ok. Theyre in a trap. There are no linguistic mind trap. They cant get out of michael. We have to talk about these a republics joining russia because they will become russian soil sovereign. And the russians have made it very clear that this isnt a bluff. Now this is the next stage, and were in the most dangerous stage of all, because russia will defend these were these new russian republics . Go ahead, michael. No, absolutely i. I fully anticipate that happening and thats, thats one of the reasons why there was an effort to bring them immediately into the rush Russian Federation and to, and its basically a red line for a ukraine you, if you start showing them again, were gonna attack and i and i anticipate that russian attacks will occur more, more or in a much more definite way and particularly as wonder reproaches. And i also see greater Cyber Attacks to get at the point that you were talking about earlier, not only against the, the, the ukrainians and their ability to communicate, but also against the west. Generally, i think there may be actually a severance, a sub in, of communications in some respects between russia and lets say washington itself, breaking up potential diplomatic relations. Now this thing could escalate very, very rapidly and it will easily get out of control. But the, the, the, the whole, the whole notion of, of, of ukraine attacking the provinces now are going to be very, very dire. If, if they go ahead and do Something Like that and, and i then see attacks on the leadership positions and the command control areas. Unlike what weve seen before, that is exactly a vladimir, you know, hes in, i mean, from where i am here in moscow. In there i have to admit a level of frustration. It looks like the Russian Military is fighting with one arm tie behind its back. I mean, a care of is in one piece layer command and control is in one piece of the have a hotel, men trail and poland. I mean, you know, i, hey, at what point does it say enough . Is enough. We know where all the entry points are. We know we can see everything going on. And hey, look, well give you 30 minutes to clear your guys because the missiles are coming in and theyre going to destroy everything coming across the border because they can see it. Go ahead vladimir. Yeah, i think this is veronda and its joining of this for, for d. 6 are very, very important. And they important primarily, you know, for domestic russian audience. Because, you know, lets not forget russians unbelievably priority in the what went all this, you know, you know, part through the wars against a point on, and he to learn this and that. So now you know, its not like, you know, we have to fight in an age somewhere in the ukraine and then those arguments, nathan defense, a defense helpless grade. Now what ration bob will see is this in the door and the grain and others. I actually taken in invading and warming, and destroying russian debt is good. So that will definitely a big impact, beth. And i think we were talking about, you know, waking up a bear and i think rations for the country for their, for defense of the land. They do anything, you know, and they do much more than the western us or americans or anyone because americans are not rated americans are coming to russia during the week and i will fight back with only have so i think its a very, very dangerous game. And i think probably again, when there is like, you know, something happening, it would be on the gradient, or maybe a rational public would a lot left and send in bomb bomb us to, you know, to v o key of or something. But if you ration did it or is attacked again and again again, then theyll be giant outright. Lets keep them back and then i dont know, you know, who will benefit from it . You know, ted, are they the memory of the 2nd world war in the west . Is dimmed, theres a lot of revisionism going on. Um, but what happened in june 1941 is, is seared into the memory, the consciousness of every russian. And they have vowed never to let that happen again. Thats why im agreeing with what . But vladimir had to say, this is visceral for them. Victory day is the most sacred day in the calendar. The west doesnt seem to get that 10. We dont study history anymore. Beer. Weve given it up for watching the car dash, and its quite frankly, there is no communal memory because that generations passed away. We think we understand what happened because were seeing documentaries on p b. S, or c, b s, or whatever Entertainment Channel happens to be pretending to be a history channel. But its not the same thing, not the blood and soil mixed together the way there was in different soviet territory and certainly in russia. So youre absolutely right. Theres a huge balance of memory here in a grievance having to do with in day and, and i dont see a way forward militarily for the west other than continuing to, to seemly expensive materials into ukrainian hands and theyre going faster than the west can provide them as far as i felt, so at some point theres going to be a crisis supply charity if you will. I think you know, curses are going to start being zipped closed, especially as you mentioned before, the cold winter. So i dont see a good way forward here in terms of continuing on but, but now the bridges have been burned, nor do i see a way back towards diplomacy. I do actually, i have to completely agree with you michael. Ive over the last couple of weeks i had this habit of asking those questions because i like it because it brings out different responses. So its your turn to answer this one whos got the clocks and whos got the time in this conflict. Go ahead at this point, i think rush at those again, which ways both, both are what one of the other the clock in. What was the other one, like clock in time. I always got the clock whos got the time. I think he, i think russia has both, it can, it can, it can hold out for as long as it can, United States is up against a very serious election coming up. The people dont like this, you this war and, and they have other things on their mind. And the, and the europeans are getting fed up. And, and theyre, and theyre, theyre seeing that this is getting them know where you got protests going on in germany now. And although russia has to do is wait it out and, and its going to be, it will, i think the europeans are gonna ultimately recoil from all of this and, and finally say enough it in spite of the fact that that victoria newland and company are back theyre pushing, pushing, pushing, but at some point theyre going to see that this is not benefiting them. Theyre going to have are very harsh winter. And, and the russians have been through it all before they can do it again. I think that hardship, the to talk about is probably genetic and in the rush in the russians. Yeah. They, i mean, they, its one of the things you learned that living among russians, that there is a high level of stoicism. Theyre very stoic when they get that. When youre up against the wall, theyre very stoic and they, they work in unison. Other than that, they never do. But when, when they, when theyre threatened, they come together and, and something. Is it something to watch . Well, vladimir a, the, well, the, the idea of that, the brush, the idea of having regime change in russia, which is, it is ridiculous here. But i, i do foresee a regime change in berlin. I think Sergeant Schultz will be sent packing. And his coalition very soon. Yeah, i did say that Sergeant Schultz. Go ahead. Vladimir. Thats absolutely the case. I think he interactions under pressure a get together. So even if there will be like a, you know, the people vogue of others. Jim change, or youll be like absolutely tougher guy if there is some changes. Russia, which will, it would be i a guy. But in terms of german in england, you know, they dont have time. She brought this radia up to like one month in the office, or the least ross is doing a bungalow economy. Germany is not going to do well. Well, you know what, i, what i want to stress is that, yes, those to no history, those been russians know that they can persevere. But i think western calculations are, it was based on some, it was said, falls, georgia. They get some strange that g 6 which tells them that rather than economies weak, rational dont have. This wasnt on the are that you grands. Send this information again to washington. Say yes, yes, yes, were winning rations collapsing, theyre running out of ammunition there. Im out of this equipment, so this idea that the items are running out, it says ready . Very naive of any faulty, but i think you know, so in other words, rasa does have diamond logan a hand, but they were actually things that we do. And thats where the danger a come to the fight with a gun, unload it and think its loaded as opposed to appoint and what will happen, but i think, well, you know, die will tell. Of course, you know, well, time, well, but im, im, im, im, im protecting that lives trust will be looking for political asylum in care of before the end of the winter. Thats my prediction and all the time we have gentlemen many thanks. So my get some province, washington intends mania. And thanks to our viewers for watching us here at our dc and next time, remember, cross stuck with ah, i will never be a victory for russia. We switch with you with looking crane more is a proxy war. This is a war between russia and the United States. As a media comes to not, she said, then in cowboys, america forces are, and youre not in your gage, in conflict with russian forces. The American Forces are here and defend nato allies with nato escalades, even more indiscretion. Military operations become a war when you put them up. So that was the one that doesnt, is my store. I see it that i see your to us. Thank you. Custody of the live, so i you sleep issue leak and you stuff to with the girl whos who is the aggressor today . Im authorizing the additional strong sanctions today. Russia is the country with the most sanctions imposed against it. And number those constantly growing. I figure which of list, of course, sure, as we speak on the bill in your senior, mostly mine or will ship. Were banding all imports of russian oil and gas new g. I g with the letter. You know, were going to go to joe by imposing these sanctions on russia has destroyed the american economy. You. So theres your boomerang, ah, ah, with the key of authorities and a real mass is in the west with the people who live in a rogia region have become a dom republican, rosier, and carry on regions into russia. Also, i heard you great all for seller. I didnt need to live, but the chief over lives reject calls saying that needs to be consensus