A private equity advisor and independent economic analyst. Hi gentlemen, crosswalk rules and effect. That means you can jump anytime you want. I always appreciated and this is certainly a blue ribbon panel. I act. Thank all 3 of you for joining me today. Michael, let me go to you 1st year. There seems to be a growing consensus that there is a recession is coming particularly for the west, maybe for the entire Global Economy. What makes this recession different . If it is different whatsoever, because i think all of us would agree a lot of the bad Economic News that were experiencing, particularly in the west, again, is self inflicted. Michael . Well, when people talk about recession, they think of a business, they go up and down and then recovering. And this isnt a business cycle. This is a change in the way the world is being organized for one thing, every recession since world war 2 ended has started with recovered with a much higher level of debt. And today, the level of debt has grown so much that domestic market, both in the United States and europe are and the global sounds are unable to grow grow. The problem is got much worse because the u. S. Dollar is going up against the european currency and the global. So currently making it much harder for these countries to pay their dollar denominated debt when they all do this all. And whats really causing a break in the chain of payments and making things much worse than they are now, is the fact that theyre going to be continued Higher Energy prices, iris food prices and countries do not have a not money both to stay. So the feed their populations and pay their foreign debt. So theyre going to be a lot of the falls and the only way that they can really get the food and the energy they need is by dealing with russia and i cannot make allies. And so this recession isnt going to be simply a return back to the normal. And so its going to be a new economic institutions of bricks, bank, all sorts of swap agreements, not really a payment of dollars. And it will be the dollar rise realignment of much of the world politically will pay kind of to continue with the same theme there. I mean, when we come out of this, if and when we come out of it, because were just going in to Something Like this is a how much is it going to change the world . Because at the epicenter of this is the west right now. And even more specifically, europe, i dont see what they recovery trajectory is ok because theyre cutting off all kinds of options because of ideology, because of neoliberalism and other ridiculous things that have nothing to do with self interest. Theyre leaving themselves behind and its intentional. Go ahead in los angeles. I think the ideology goes much deeper. Were going to expect and more than likely by longer term design is, are sweeping asset consolidations, transatlantic lee, and are designed stagflation in order to pave the way for a world wide, digital integrated Monetary System, Artificial Intelligence base, computing, standards, trans, humanistic, adventure ism with technology and biology and miss serenading and cubing the spear cubing the severe if you will, or circling the square in the satiric sense for very hermetically ambitious trans atlantic a cultish to leach. Yeah, but if we continue with that tom, that means the, with the definite decline of the west as the global hedge a mon, i mean it being that includes the United States, what weight would pied to said there, is it a complete reordering of the chessboard go ahead no, i agree that thats what their plan is. I dont know that i actually would be able to pull it off. And i think the, the key is, as michaels pointed out at the end, you appointed us the epicenter here. It is in europe. The question now is, and my mind, and ive been watching this carefully, is that asked, has there been a break in the, the factions within the, the, the elite as you would, i would called miss avo scrap. Right. Is there a break between the anglo sphere and the european sphere . I see the Federal Reserve doing everything that no one wants them to do, which is raise Interest Rates, be aggressive, engaging q t and limit congresss ability to continue to spend and make the United States into what it looks like of fiscal laughingstock. And i see the exact opposite now happening on capitol hill, but theres a political pushback behind the scenes as allowing the fed and the commercial banking sector. And us saying, no, were not going to go for Central Bank Digital currencies. No, were not going to go over trans humanist technocratic can Global Control and, and all the rest of that i and to michaels point, yes, were going to see a di dollars world. But i think actually, in many ways, i think the fed wants out of that fully dollar arised world. If you are my in, in, in michael is traditionally we looked, we looked at the fed in the European Central bank for queues here. I mean, it is this way too big for them to handle right now, because i would say theyre actually the source of a lot of these problems in our turning them to solve them. Well, the problem cannot be solved, monitor light, the problem. Structural of the United States doesnt produce its own manufacturers anymore. Theyre going to be a lot of breaks in the supply chain for key materials, especially the sanctions against russia. Not only oil and food, but also to m e. M. All the other thing, the problem with the central bank of america is they were here that wages are going up and theyre waiting the Interest Rates just to say, you think this is a recession, we need more of a recession. We cant let this recovery res wage here, and the Federal Reserve been very, very clear where we want more unemployment. We want to keep the wages down, and so they raise the Interest Rate that sucks money out of europe and the global. So i said, well, arbitrage people are cheap in their country, lendue a higher rate here, and thats pushing the way the dollar. And that means that because copper Raw Materials are priced in dollars in the west, that all of a sudden makes all materials more expensive. If its a boom, for countries outside the United States, forcing their their business into a squeeze and into a recession. Well, tom, lets, lets talk about the impact of these sanctions here because this was a craven decision on the part of the west to do this. And, and the way i look at it is that the conflict in the ukraine will come to events and eventually here, but the sanctions wont. Ok out of hubris, out of pride, out of ideology, whatever ridiculous reason they have at the moment. Ok. Because they are ridiculous right now, this is a queue to the rest of the Global Economy that structurally it is going to change forever. There is no, they say, i really like what michael had to say. You know, we look at it traditionally, recession is, you know, you know, theres a depression, the economy gets depressed and then it recovers. But this time its going to be very, very different when, when all of the dust settles, go ahead. No, it really is. And the, the, the sanctions, the cesium, rushes Foreign Exchange reserves, all that have done a irreparable damage to the confidence of the old system, right . That those things used to be considered inviolate. And that doing business in dollars, you know, you, your money was say, that was part of the reason why the dollar was able to take over the world. Because everybody, you know, and everybody believe that that, that the holding dollars was the safe thing that you asked, that was not going to be defaulted on yada yada, yada. Now were in a situation today where that had that trust has been not that trust has been broken and you know, in a, in an open market, once trust is gone, it takes years to build up and a day to destroy, which is exactly what happened here. 2 years, the build up trust in the dollar and the dollar and the whole is existing system. And then weve weapon i swiftly weaponized Foreign Exchange reserves, the rest of it. So no, theres going to be a complete change over now when, when you say that, of course, now we have all this misaligned capital, you know, all this miss allocated happened. We have all this misaligned risk thats priced into the markets. Now i, i, i do disagree that i dont with michael, i dont think at the fed as raising rates to keep labor prices down. That may be his interpretation of it, but we are, were running it. We have labor shortage hernandez is well have an issue with with labor, they have the where they have the room to ramp up rates because fiscal fiscally, were actually in better shape than people one with mit we, you know, we have of the lowest debt to just the debt servicing, as a percentage of g d p, the countrys history, theres no, theres no stress within the Banking System that has plenty of room to raise rates here. And theyre deliberately draining dollars from the world. They are deliberately trying to stop the euros of the, the, i think the euro system. But i call that i was cried from taking from controlling Monetary Policy through the offshore dollar markets. I think they want control their Monetary System back and i think its, its, its, its what they have to do in order to, to even attempt to save the United States from a political break down into the rest of the rest. Like i have noticed, ive noticed that, you know, the, that the fed wants to make a run to the door 1st and lead the europeans behind. I mean thats, thats what allies are for, i suppose here i weigh in on that because it seems to me that, you know, can the dollar return, you know, you know, you know, the return of the phoenix here. I just dont see it because when the way these sanctions are being and you know, be stealing peoples property without any due process. This ridiculous oil cap thing that has goes against market forces. I mean, there is no going back pie one minute before we go to the break. First off on a real rate of unemployment spent in the double digits, essentially since the 2000 a financial crisis, it just hasnt been credibly reported by the government or by media. Just the sanctions issue and real. We have dollars being closed in a longer term scheme and erg dovetailing to a much more traceable a digital technology. But on the sanctions issue, sanctions are obviously pushing russia to cut energy and other export of resources to the west. But theyre also allowing the kremlin to torpedo this 48 year old petronela reserve recycling yet mechanism which allows the u. S. To run perennial accounting, trade deficits, trillions and public and private debt, hundreds of trillions in risky notional derivatives, contracts across finance, and a big stick for punishing rogue regimes. With cutting off capital sanctions food, madison and other necessities rushes, redefining a new global Gold Standard by tying its rouble to finite gold, bullion, oil and natural gas, which will put a very dangerous dangerous higher permanent floor price on gold and the ruble. While in turn popping the largest debt in an iron, cant i hold that rod . I have to go to a hard break. And after that hard break, well continue our discussion on the Global Economy. Stay with ah, nobody see that the was the jesus should. We should just open the window door, needham with the door mister. No volta amuse, now thatll go up. Dont she does most. So muscle must have been over, which has thermals wanna hold. Go on. That motion of the Police Concerned must up on a thumb candle vehicle. Lisa im with enough with video medieval blue naturally sca up with a little causal at a slow motion on the sheet on incomplete innovation, getting young shalom. She be riding near lucy, chill out to the you put the log on the sheet. It is leak when when you put in a slip of the month upon which you to the mock about the when you look a whoop, what all this is, just look shift my light. Must paulina mean you came in the bathroom when this you must admit, i wish la la merely to like a daughter of angela wished emotional permission as i put almost a total sold out on political when you model with them or they will to is up with mister underwood was india over the hill in watson at albany with a genuine conflict. The butch moore released was to view things by medium to go along with a welcome back to cross hoc where all things are considered. Im peter belcher, manager. Were discussing the Global Economy. Ah. Okay, lets go back to los angeles. I want to go back to you. Im sorry, i had to cut you off. We had to go to that hard break. But you, you were getting into something that i think is quite fascinating only a few months ago. I think all of us would consider that with the rubel was a soft currency. Okay. It was, it wasnt a currency that was particularly sought after. Now its very different, its a, its been but best performing currency in the world because its backed by what, fill in the blanks for me go ahead. Finite, tangible, hard asset, commodities, whether theyre monetary commodities in the way of gold, perhaps a lot of silver as well that its not being announced. But for most of oil and natural gas, russia sits on the largest a natural gas reserves, and is the largest producer on the planet. And as i think, 3rd or 4th as far as oil. So the playbook by John D Rockefeller and european elites over the prior century, plus they are basically you surfing and thats the, thats the course sin because John D Rockefeller prescriptively prescriptively said, quote, unquote, competition as a sin. And here the kremlin has said ok, but were going to go ahead and send, were going to outcompete you. And by the way, we have all the Natural Resources that we need. So theyre calling the dollars bluff over the past 50 plus years after the gold went after the gold window closed by a basically, you know, a forcing everybody to price and trade and reserve or cycle in dollars a by saying that the dollar, you know what its 12 truly, in euro. In dad, just to reference professor hudsons earlier point and 29 trillion stated of a u. S. A national debt. Its, its incredulous to try and claim that this is going to be the perennial, a reserve currency standard. So theyre calling the bluff, they are very powerful friends in the, in the way the chinese, a global south and what not. And hence are, you know, everythings, its, its optics, its a confidence game and confidence is shifting east. And theres a lot of haste on the west to try and how to, how to try and deal with it. Okay, lets go back to michael in new york. Lets talk about the impact of sanctions here. Go ahead. Well, president biden, and the secretary of state lincoln, who said that the war in ukraine is simply the beginning of a war with russia that will go on for 20 years and will extend the china. So they plan on bringing the whole world back into the us dollar area, not only europe, but also the global. So the problem is that they think that United States will be the only actor and the other countries will simply react. But keep on doing what theyve been doing all along within the i m f and the world bank and the world trade organization. But this is not going to happen because if indeed theyve declared economic sanctions in war against russia already a president who said, were going to create a brick span. Were going to create a whole new set of institutions that will operate on very different principles, the neo liberal policies. Ive just got to know what i expect to be in my book, the dawn of civilization. So the destiny of civilization. I guess it will be the down of a new one because it is going to be a whole new structure of world trade and World Finance and countries. Youre going to find the only way that they can literally survive financially. And in terms of trade is to re orient their trade for your asia or russia, china around india. And already you have argentina and brazil wanting to join break. So while dr. Thinking that they are trying to hurt other countries and force them into the u. S. R u s. Policy is actually driving them out of it are directly 8, you know tom, one of the things i think that weve seen with the reaction on the, the cooperation that the west is a force other attempted to force other is a follow. Their lead was sanctions. We school come out with a very different scenario, and i would say, i mean for, and from an ideological point of view, the, the global south no longer has any respect for the west. And its ridiculous ideas and woke ism and all of that nonsense, which i never talk about because its a waste of time. But theyre not afraid of the west any more. And this is what michael is talking about. Because if you can create parallel institutions, you dont need the i m f, you dont need the world bank, you dont need any of these things here. Okay. And why going to their, for their, their toxic financial system, get out of it. Okay, go ahead. Tom. Going other guys going to say exactly that a, you know, its funny. I think that we need to be careful about whats going on here. I dont believe that the, by the ministration works to the United States. I believe theyre broad trader, city u. S. I believe they work for i believe they work for brussels and european old european colon, youll money including the brits, including city of london. So when you, when you start to unpack a lot of whats happening here, theres a lot of confusion about whats going on within us policy, right. I and i do separate at this point out that i believe the fed in the commercial banks. Typically, our enemies are actually the ones working assiduously to stop this technocratic trans humanist thing that the, that the, the World Economic forum and the rest of them are taking that theyre talking about that pie was talking about earlier. So once you get that, you sent, you start to realize that, yeah, the global south is not in fear anymore. And i believe that theyve not that it started with putin standing up to them over crimea, and then an intervening and syria. And its all just been downhill since then as theyve worked through the russian for ministry and others with the chinese backing them up to you know, tell everybody. Look, were stronger than when you think we are. And i think nothing is more indicative of this than bidens. Meeting with mom and been solomon to saudi arabia over the weekend. And id walk away empty hand that was really pathetic here pine, you know, on this program weve talked about ideology and weve talked about policies. Weve talked about leadership, political classes, but lets talk about the people that feel the impact of all of this. Do, does the, the industrialized modern west to have the wherewithal to go through this transition . As long as it takes, it seems to me, you know, Boris Johnsons gone. Druggie is gone. Shell be gone by the end of the year. You could bet money on that. Ok. I mean, they did. People are not going to just, theyre not going to accept this. I mean, particularly in europe, theyre great calling card is where rich compared to everybody in the world. Theyre not going to be able to say that much longer and considering the path there on go ahead. Pine. Yeah, i mean, people have to realize is that kind of referenced earlier, the 2008 financial crisis was fairly pivotal. It wasnt like resolved and everything kind of went back, hunky dory. And we had an like the quote unquote largest and longest recovery on record. There were a lot of structural faults that were kind of semi to full permanent and just kind of brushed under the rug. Hence the g lays yong, or yellow vest protests across, not just france, but of quite a bit of europe. And this is pre kobe, pre ukraine war, really kind of almost expediting the need for pushing forward esoteric mandates. In order to reverse, you know, you clear the streets through a pandemic, much harder to be writing in paris, certainly on or elsewhere. So that was somewhat effective to certain extent. The french know their history, their sober, they werent fooled, and that sentiment is shared across the global south. I think what were kind of talking about in the break as far as you know, the u. K especially and then you know, the commonwealth states and the u. S. Really, you know, carol quickly wrote the book, the Anglo American strat establishment decades ago because it was a soft, it was an indirect argument. The at the u. S. And a dovetail back under empire and all but name as certainly as early as the 1913 Federal Reserve act. So the belligerence is really begging the question over the stakes. Why this severe rousseau phobia . Its because of what were talking about earlier. A very potent, very well thought out very well coordinated. A challenge against dollar had gemini, against super imperialism, to quote a professor hudsons earlier text work against petro dollar head gemini, which we have to remember. 197374, went into went and became a plan in large part by on the assumption of a u. S. Military dom. And so if anybody falls out a line, we whack them back into gear that worked for saddam husseins iraq that worked for a colonel could off ease libya. Its not going to work against the Massive Nuclear powers that just aside from that level of a deterrence capability and collectively have a military force numbering in the 10s of millions where they needed to be deployed. So its the hence the sense of haste, the desecration the rage is because the bluff is being called and what is going to be . The response is going to be a head off. This is these approaching hazards. Western central bank sters will print their Respective National guarantees into hyper plate hyperinflation, area oblivion. Michael is usually you want to jump in, go ahead. Yes, so you just made the really important point that you call it a recession, but were still in the aftermath of 2008. There wasnt any recovery from 2008. The situation is got worse and worse. And every single country, because of the debts were not written down. President obama kept the debts on the books, and the economy was written down in the United States. In europe, you have the crisis afterwards. You have the global south running that much more. So its only a pretense that there was a recovery, its been going down since 2008, and now its accelerating. And regarding the us stance, people think obviously because nato, russia, you think of the west is being highly military. But look at the nato attack on russia as western disarmament. They are, they run out of a by the only way that the west can fight it. Ami um, its the only weapon they have left. No tanks, no rifles, no, no well extent. But in them or missile only atomic weapon. So it comes as the, the fact that all the United States can do is play the role of wrecker in the world to try to prevent the world from reorganizing along more rational. Okay. While were almost out of time, well that will this policy succeed . Id say its a, it wont. I just hope we can avoid a new killer conflict. Go ahead. Tom finishes. Finish our program. I was going to say, i was gonna say i, i, i think that the, the threat of that is a little well, what i expect here at this next juncture is naida was going to, is coming, is trying to figure out a false flag to attack russia directly and force them again as to strike verse because thats the way they know the. So i put ma, operate so that they can have the moral high ground to then organize something. Ah, worse than that, they have to cover the fact that the debt is so massive and the way you do that is you take people to war, the people are good, are down with us and its very clear across the entire west. And i think that there are very powerful forces in the west at this point, supporting that notion and theyre doing so at the 40 what talked to us looks like the giants fighting amongst themselves. We asked on the ground going what the hells going on . Right. This is all about elite agend as it has nothing to do with the rest of us gentlemen or our audience. Gentlemen, that fascinating discussion, thats all the time we have a want to thank my guest in new york, los angeles, and in north florida. And i want to thank our viewers for watching us here in our t v. See you next time. Remember, cross topical move when i was so seemed wrong. I just dont you . Yes to say an engagement equals betrayal. When so many find themselves worlds apart. We choose to look for common ground. Ah, a ah mm. Explosions rang out in the crimea sky as russias Defense System reportedly goes into action. Youre the city of you have, but the aria late on friday evening, fighting on the brown grinds on us, the Ukrainian Army shells, residential areas under russian control with high marge, rocket systems are tease romano culture of is close to kia positions near the don. Yes, capital with these guys are instrumental in destroying Ukrainian Army positions just on the out