State jam session. First polls keep up tempo. We can barely keep one the onslaught of surveys that flooded our inbox today. With less than a week before eday, florida remains a razor thin race. In one poll, clinton is up by 1 point. In the other she is up by 2 points. In ohio donald trump is ahead by five percentage points. In North Carolina accident clinton leads by 3. In pennsylvania, clinton leads by 5 points in one poll. In wisconsin, clinton is still up by 6. While her advantage in colorado has shrunk to 3 points. In virginia shes up by 5 percentage points. And finally in arizona, the state just last week that her campaign was talking about winning, Donald Trump Holds a 5point advantage. We have a new Bloomberg Politics purple slice poll, National Poll of independent voters. It shows clinton with a small lead. 3027 . That is a lot of data. So youve been out on the campaign trail. Youve been in wisconsin. Youre in iowa today. Rudolph giuliani, bill clinton, all over the place. In this jumble of data, as you look at i on the campaign trail. What is standing out to you right now . Well, if the two campaigns agree, trump and clinton, that her lead has narrowed nationally in the key Battle Ground states. He and i both have the same experience every four years. If your Campaign Says youre up 3, you say we have a solid 3point lead. If youre down 3, you say were closing the gap. So i would say that donald trump has, everyone agrees, has closed the gap. But there is no under the current polling. He has more to do if hell be in the game in less than a week. Right. You look at this and one of the biggest, one of the biggest changes is that a week ago, smart people that we know were saying that the only suspense left in this election was whether Hillary Clinton would end up between 350 and 400 electoral votes. Nobody is talking like that anymore. You look at all the battleground state polls. The states that Hillary Clinton needs on win, she still has, shes where she has been if you look at the whole of the last three months. She has a small but stable lead in a lot of battleground states. As you said, right now, if you look at all this data, theres not really a path for donald trump. Again, he is within the margin of error. He is within striking distance of a lot of places but he is more behind than he is, narrowing the gap to the place where he would want to be six days out. Yeah. Even as clinton plays defense in states like wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania by going herself. She is still, she can look at the map and say, unless theres a Huge National shock, she is going to win enough states. Hold most of the blue states and win enough blue states and maybe North Carolina on get to 270. So she can, barring a National Shock and many states ending up different than the public data, shes got it. The way you have to look at this on some level, six days out, whose hand would you rather be playing . Her hand or his hand . No doubt you would rather be playing her hand. Right. So lets talk about this. Im here, paul ryan doing an event, not for donald trump but for the local congressman here. Iowa, like a lot of battleground states, it is hard to move a few inches around without seeing some Major National player, a president ial candidate or one of the top surrogates. And all Everyone Wants to know here in iowa or elsewhere, is answer to one question. Is trump cutting into clintons lead or is he not . We just talked about, he is cutting into the lead but not enough to get all the way there. For a while, ive been saying there are certain things he would need to do if hell be in a position to pull off an upset in this president ial contest. A surge in National Polls was one of the things. Weve seen it in the abc news tracking poll but not a significant surge in any other major National Polls. He had to show more message discipline. Towed lock into some clinton controversies and there had to be this expansion of the electoral map. So if you look at my whole check list, how many of those things has trump done . Not to go ahead but to put himself in the game. I think it is fair to say that about half of those. You could look at the check list and say that hes accomplished about half of them. Some of these things will be questions about what you meant with your language. What were not seeing is a surge in Donald Trumps polling standing. Thats not there. He is creeping into a more Competitive Position but not surging. Hes had a little luck. He has a little sense of momentum but he is still playing defense. He is not really driving. He is trying on drive but not really driving, to my mind, a really potent message of change. I know you have thoughts about this police are probably more nuances than mine. He is making some progress on that list. If you put it back up, i would stay two that are both keeping trump and his Supporters Energized but also maybe creating an illusion. The first thing on that list. Winning news cycles. Trump went weeks after the access Hollywood Tape. Hes won several in a row. That gives him momentum which is number 10. Talking on Rudolph Giuliani today, according the trump rally, looking at the rhetoric from the campaign, they can say a bunch of stuff ripped from the headlines every day that gives them a expense things are moving our way. Thats a positive for the republicans. It gives them a sense of upbeat spirit. But also a bit of an illusion. It can make them think the polls are tightening more than they are. Heres a really important thing that we dont discuss enough. We talk about early voting. We saw some polling last night. That suggests that Hillary Clinton is winning overwhelming when i the vote in florida. We cant know for sure. One of the things thats happening, even if all these things go trumps way, theres been a lot of votes cast already and Hillary Clinton may already have a substantial, maybe even decisive advantage in some states because of the early vote. All right. So both candidates are honing their closing pitch to voters in this final week. Donald trump is out with a new ad today called united. It show cases a more uplifted message than were used to seeing from the gop nominee who uses Convention Speech to describe a country with quote, violence in our streets and chaos in our communities. These days, trumps stump speech while still harping on the system also replete with optimistic rhetoric like this. Hillary clinton wants us to think small. Wants us to believe things cant change and wants our lives to revolve around washington, d. C. I am asking to you dream big, to push for bold change and to believe in a movement powered by the people and by their love of this great country. Im talking about politicians telling americans to defer their dreams to another day. When they really mean, another decade. America is tired of waiting. The moment is now. There is no challenge too great and no dream outside of our reach. There is not. There is no dream outside of our reach. Dont let anyone tell you it cant be done. The future lies with the dreamers. Not the cynics and not the critics. That was donald trump last night in wisconsin. Future lies with the dreamers. All right. Today at a rally in miami he repeated those lines but also returned to his goto topics. A Justice Department official involved in the clinton email probe apparently gave the Clinton Campaign a heads up about when congressional oversight hearings will take place and when clintons emails will be made public. As trump plays these duel roles of attack dog and motivational speaker, how much does it matter that hes added these dollups ofment on mix . Like a lot of things going right for trump. It is not decisive by any means but it is certainly helpful. I had one person who watched trump very closely after watching last nights speech saying, if that had been the speech he gave at the Convention Rather than the darker speech he gave. This would have been a much different race to the republicans during the summer so it is helpful. People like an optimistic president. Hillary clinton toggles back and forth between optimism and dark as well. He is rarely that optimistic as he was last night. Part of the problem when he strikes those notes, they sound so inconsistent and so discordant with the way in which hes campaigned for the last year and a half that they sound sort of false to me. And yes. I agree with you. This will be the third or fourth instance where we cited, if he started campaigning in a different way and in a disciplined way done it over the course of may or june, the campaign would be in a different place. He hasnt done that though. When you hear him talking about the dreamers and dreaming, you think, who is that guy . Not like, oh. Thats the donald trump that ive always known and loved. Yeah. Before he was a president ial candidate, i heard him talk optimistically like that quite a bit. Theres always been dark many there. Well see if he keeps up the optimism in the advertising. Next, Hillary Clinton continues. It comes when your Insurance Company says theyll only pay threequarters of what it takes to replace it. What are you supposed to do . Drive threequarters of a car . Now if you had Liberty Mutual new car replacement™, youd get your whole car back. I guess they dont want you driving around on three wheels. Smart. With Liberty Mutual new car replacement™, well replace the full value of your car. Liberty stands with you™. Liberty mutual insurance. A look into Hillary Clintons email server. A back handed way, president obama took a shot at the fbi chief. But also said that the recent move wont impact how voters feel about the president ial race. There is a norm that when there are investigations, we dont operate on innuendo, we dont operate on incomplete information, we dont operate on leaks. We operate based on concrete decisions that are made. The white house played down the president s remarks but they come a day after the fbi released old heavily redacted documents related to the 2001 investigation into bill clintons controversial president ial pardon. The fbi says that the posting was in response to a routine foya request. So what is going on . With the fbi and james comey and the president ial race . You and i are in agreement about the inappropriateness of what comey did in july, the inappropriateness of what he did on friday, and i think the fbi did yesterday. It is crazy. Just crazy that they are putting, that they are injecting themselves into the race in this way. The only way in which, well, i think its crazy. Number one. And number two, it is starting to then Clinton Campaign because it is making them such a ripe fat target for the campaign of discrediting that the democrats want to do. The thing yesterday was just, i mean, i cant figure out whats going on there. How the fbi is out of control. Whoever handles Public Affairs over there needs to take james comey aside and walk through remainder of the time between now and election day. Ive seen a few people defend him but for the most part, democrats continue to be aggressive. Clearly it went farther. I believe in the clinton Campaign Says that their date doesnt show any damage to them from comey. And even the republicans played down comey as a factor as opposed to the drum beat from the Affordable Care act as weve been discussing. Theres new wikileaks disclosures related to potential coordination between Justice Department and the clinton world and the state department and clinton world. I think those things will get a fair amount of attention pushed by the republicans in the next couple days. I have to say, if the doj manages to get through the emails from weiners computer before election day and they, whatever they show. I now feel like they almost have an obligation to report to the country on what they found or havent found. This whole thing, they got us into this mess with this vaguory and inwend over. They need to resolve it before election day in terms of what they find. Maybe they have something resolved enough to say. Right. All right. Donald trump has been spending an awful lot of time in traditionally democratic leaning states for a while. That didnt seem to bother the Clinton Campaign. In the final stretch, Hillary Clinton and her surrogates are spending valuable time in states, not just tossup states but also blue states that a week ago were considered safely, securely in her column. Today, Bernie Sanders and Chelsea Clinton are in wisconsin. Today, theyre heading to detroit. Vice President Biden will be in madison. We talked yesterday about how the Clinton Campaign is going on the air. 24 hours later, what more do we know . Well, i talked to the Clinton Campaign. They claim this is not panic or seeing the numbers crater. They believe it is prudent, given that they have a lot of surrogates and Hillary Clinton has a lot of money in her bank account to may defense in these states. The other thing is you have clinton supporters in places like michigan and wisconsin who are from the bed wetter category saying you need to fight to save this state or lose it. If they dont get what they want theyll often leak to the press that hillary isnt paying enough attention to our state. You cant overstate how many of that kind of howling occurs in the last days before a president ial election where the local democratic parties and local donors in various places start calling up and saying, my god, my god. Please send somebody. If you dont, it will be a disaster. So if you have the resources in terms of surrogates and the Financial Resources to be on the airing there is no good reason not to spend those resources. Both financial and human to try to calm them down and play defense to the extent defense is required. If you look at the big five, you have to say the run has solidified in both iowa, here, and in ohio. That still leaves for three of the big three to try to win. The silver state as i like to call it. Florida and North Carolina. And then of course. He would still be five short as we talk about all the time. So i think clinton is trying to hedge against a possible loss for trump for her somewhere that trump can make up with elsewhere. Up next, more from here in waterloo, iowa after this. [burke] at farmers, weve seen almost everything, so we know how to cover almost anything. Even a rodent ridealong. [dad] alright, buddy, dont forget anything [kid] i wont, dad. [captain rod] happy Tuesday Morning captain rod here. Its pretty hairy out on the interstate. Traffic is literally crawling, but there is some movement on the eastside overpass. Getting word of another collision. [burke] it happened. December 14th, 2015. And we covered it. Talk to farmers. We know a thing or two because weve seen a thing or two. We are farmers. Bumpadum, bumbumbumbum welcome back. I am here in iowa where news broke overnight that two Des Moines Area Police officers were ambushed in their patrol cars, fatally shot. It is captivating the state. I talk to the governor earlier about it today. Police arrested a man, a 46yearold earlier in connection with these shootings. He said that has been his focus. Tim kaine, bill clinton, canceled the event that was supposed to be set. But bill clinton will speak in des moines. As a political reporter here in this eastern part of the state. You have a governors senate race. The president ial. And this Eastern District which is a democratic district, an incumbent republican. House member paul ryan today, talk about how that house race might impact the president ial in this part of the state. It is an interesting race. He has the benefit of being one of the few tossup states or swing states leaning toward donald trump so he hasnt really been acting like hes vulnerable. This is a first term republican congressman in a grik voted overwhelmingly republican twice. What has he said twice, particularly after the access Hollywood Tape . He has been very clear in his support. He doesnt go out of his way to mention donald trump but when asked, he will say specific reply iowa is still behind donald trump. The conventional wisdom in the public polling suggests that clinton trump has a lead here and has had a lead. How much has this part of the state been engaged with the president ial race . Its been interesting. We havent seen much of the actual candidates. Weve seen more of the surrogates. And this is the second time were seeing bill clinton. So were getting more of the surrogates rather than the actual candidates. Okay. Thank you very much. Well though it back to you. Welcome back. Well cut away to Michael Steele, the form he chair of the republican party. Youre in washington, d. C. Give may sense on the basis of what you know right now. Weve been talking about the race. It is very fascinating. I dont know where the energy is coming from but donald trump seems to have garnered a great deal of energy. Listening to Kellyanne Conway, you get the sense that they have their fingers on something. Either they figured something out or something is moving in their direction. This may be on what has developed with Hillary Clinton but there is a different kind of energy out there. I was out there talking to folks. It was surprising to me the resignation that trump could win this thing in the metro area. So a very different climate in the last 24 hours or so. Youll see it in various parts of the country. And it will be interesting to see how the campaign galvanizes that considering the lack of organization if we will say in the traditional sense they seem to have on the ground. Do you think this is mostly driving from the shock wave from the comey letter or do you think this is more of a case of natural tightening, trump exercising some degree of discipline, finding his way to a different message . What are the factors that are core to the change you see . Thats a good question. I thought it was the latter. That the Trump Campaign has settled down. It really drilled into donald trump. You have to say this and do this in the last week of the campaign. But then all of a sudden, the comey thing hit and it was a very different feel. All of a sudden the people remember, oh, yeah. I didnt like that about Hillary Clinton. And i think thats moved into the space. How much of that space it will occupy in the next few days is really going to matter for the Trump Campaign. That means how theyre able to capitalize on that. Make that a much more integral part of the message, driving home the vote and getting the base excited. Right now though. They seem to have a little more wind in their back than they had a week ago and it is kind of paying off in terms of what were seeing in the polls. All right. I agree with you. It seems as though, you can feel it out here. Im out here in utah. You can sort of feel that the wind and weather is changing. At the same time, real quick. We saw this report from florida yesterday which suggested that Hillary Clinton is, has banked a very large am of early vote. It has been going on for a while. Give me a sense of whether you think that early vote manneded up whatever tightening is taking place this week. Ive went giving some thought to that. Im not convinced that it will. I think theres a presumption that this early vote will be, it is banked for hillary. That this is all a Hillary Clinton vote. I just dont get sense. When you look at the africanamerican turnout, particularly in places like florida where it is down significant percentages, i think that this kind of energy that trump has right now will be too important. All right. Youre going to stick with us. Well be right back with a democrat to help out in this conversation. Ah, beth. So the elevator is stuck again. With directv and at t you can stream your favorite shows without using your data. That makes you more powerful than being stuck in an elevator with a guy with overactive sweat glands. Sorry, rode my bike today. Cool. Its your tv, take it with you. Watch all your live channels, on your devices, datafree. Im not a customer, but im calling about that credit scorecard. Give it. Sure its free for everyone. Oh well thats nice and checking your score wont hurt your credit. Oh im so proud of you. Well thank you. Free at at discover. Com creditscorecard, even if youre not a customer. But my back pain was making it hard to sleep and open up on time. Then i found aleve pm. The only one to combine a sleep aid plus the 12 hour pain relieving strength of aleve. Now im back. Aleve pm for a better am. Im going to be honest with you right now. We tracked. We have early voting and all kinds of metrics to see whats going on. And right now, the latino vote is up. The overall vote is up. But the africanamerican vote right now is not as solid as it needs to be. And i know that there are a lot of people in barber shops and beauty salons, you know, in the neighborhoods who are saying to themselves, well, you know, we would love michelle, it was exciting. And now were not excited as much. Do you know what . I need everybody to understand that everything weve done is dependent on me being able to pass the baton on to somebody who believes in the same things i believe in. That was president obama on tom joiners radio show. Were back with the form he chairman of the Republican National committee, Michael Steele, in washington, d. C. , and now joining us from new york. We have strategist, the former Deputy Campaign manager from Martin Omalleys president ial run. Let me go back to you real quick. We left in the middle of our conversation before. And one of the things you were talking about was the africanamerican vote. We were talking about the early sxroet the reasons to think maybe it is not what people presume which is that Hillary Clinton will do well because she has greater infrastructure, greater ground game, more get out the vote. Talk in a little more detail about what weve seen in the last 24 hours in terms of the reporting on the africanamerican vote and as i say, give us your sense of that and then ill ask the same question. Sure. The bottom line with the africanamerican vote, she is not bill clinton and shes not barack obama. Shes never had that kind of relationship with the black community. At least not in my neighborhood in prince georges county. You dont their same level of interest, if you will. You know, folks dont like donald trump. There is no secret about that. But theyre not enamored of Hillary Clinton as well. And the Clinton Campaign banked on that black vote being there because it was Hillary Clinton and democrats and all that. But black folks are looking at this race a little bit differently. And they dont have the same level of passion and concern. The numbers are off, significantly off if you consider the history in 2012, in 2008. And thats why you see hillary now scrambling in states where she really shouldnt be at this point, trying to get that vote out. And of course, the president on the tom joyner show reminding folks, i need pass the baton on to hillary. Theyre like, oh, okay. Let me ask you that question. You look at the reporting that weve seen. The big piece in the New York Times today. You see president obama out. You look at his schedule. You look where hes going. He seems to be, the Clinton Campaign seems to be tacitly admitting something a lot of people have been concerned about for a long time. The thing that Michael Steele is pointing to is true. So do you think it is true that she has a real problem in these closing days with africanamerican votes and what if anything can she do about it . Heres the thing. Yes. There is an issue. We see it in the numbers. It is down in North Carolina with the africanamerican vote and also in florida. Look. We always knew she would get that percentage, right . She would get same percentage as obama did. The question was, would she get that raw vote total . Thats what the early voting number are showing us. They have to do more work. There was a slate article that was out on monday which i think was actually, gave a really interesting insight. It talked about sanford, North Carolina. A small town, 30 of the electorate is africanamerican. So the Hillary Campaign sent tim kaine there. Because barack obama got 30 . Thats the thing youre going to see. And she is able to do that, right . Yesterday she and her surrogates were in 14 media markets. So they are able to kind of spread about and go into those communities where, you know, yesterday you saw donald trump in wisconsin and pennsylvania with his, one of his important surrogates which is pence. But she is having her surrogates all over the place and they are able to do what tim kaine did on monday in that small town in sanford, North Carolina. So i think thats really important. I guess the question is this. Nobody doubts president obama in particular is a very powerful surrogate for Hillary Clinton. But again, the big question has been transferability. If at this point, six days out, if africanamerican voters arent enthused about Hillary Clinton, particularly the context of her running against donald trump, what is barack obama going to say or do that will change night measurable way . Thats a great question. I think we saw in it 2010. Does the the president going out there, speaking for elected officials who are running candidates, did that transfer . And it was that transfer didnt actually happen. But i think they have on continue putting their foot on the gas. They have the ground game. And i think thats what matters. Trump has the momentum. They have ground game and they have, theyre going to do souls to the polls. The barber shop and the beauty salon as the president was mentioning and they have to send out the president. He will be out there every day. Michelle obama will be out there every day. And they have to hammer home what is at stake in this election. Michael, go ahead. I was going to say, if could i add to that. The key thing that is really preventing the black community to really kind of jump on to Hillary Clintons bandwagon. There are plemts resonate with particularly a lot of black entrepreneurs. Ive heard them and the Small Business owners talk about that. That has created the extra level of hesitancy to go all hog in on Hillary Clinton. I think if hillary can pivot that message that she has, make it more specific to the opportunity, that may squeeze out that extra vote. But Donald Trumps message to that point has some sticking value with Small Business owners in the black community. Michael, youve seen Kellyanne Conway and others in the Trump Campaign saying weve expanded the map. Were playing in more states than we were in before. Were seeing donald trump to go more states than he was in before. Hillary clinton is trying to play some defense in some deep blue states. Do you think it is smart for the Trump Campaign to be spending time in places like wisconsin, michigan, new mexico, places that havent gone republican in many cycles. Does that make sense in or should they be picking the specific states they must win on the narrow path that he has to 270 electoral votes and camping out there until election day . Call me crazy. I think it is a good strategy. I think it is interesting. What youre seeing is to his offense, the Clinton Campaign is now defense. Theyre going back into states where they shouldnt have to go. In colorado and florida and places like that that they thought would be slamdunks for them. Thats what the numbers said at the end of summer. So yeah. I think this has worked out rather smartly for the Trump Campaign. But there is still the down side. The down side is because of a lack of ground game, at least from what we can see. The question remains, are you too trusting of that vote to show up on its own . And you may need to rethink, at least in that 72hour window before tuesday, put some extra boots on the ground by the campaign to make sure that vote turns out. Let me ask you this question Hillary Clinton and her strategy and what shes doing. One of the other things weve noticed in addition to this surrogate activity, we see her doing something she didnt want to do. Going very hard negative against donald trump. Talking about his problems with women. She had wanted, her campaign said, to close out this campaign on an optimistic, positive, beautifying message. Now shes back to the disqualification message that she was on for many, many months. Tell me whether you think that is, is it necessary ask wise for her to be going back and mostly focusing on trump, rather than shifting to a different kind of stance on these closing days . Well, as we saw what happened on friday night with the comey letter, it kind of changed the stakes a little bit. I think what she is doing, especially now. Election day is actually not on november 8. It is actually happening right now. Millions and millions of people, over 20 Million People are voting early. What she is doing is trying to remind people, right . Hey, this is the character of the other side. Just to remind you, this is what was going. On this is why donald trump is unfit to be president. So thats the message that shes going on. There are some positive messages as well if you watch her town hall, which i know you do, john. But she is really hammering home to the american whos are voting right now, about the character of donald trump. And also, one thing i wanted to say here. We saw 72 hours after the comey letter, she was able to raise online 3 million. So she has the money to go to colorado, to michigan, and not leave anything on the table. And i think thats key here as we know, this has been a volatile election cycle. So i think thats a very smart thing to do. To make sure that you have the money. Spend it. Dont leave anything on the table. All right. A quick yes or no. Answer this question. Will there be another big october, even november surprise . Do wave november surprise between now and next tuesday . You know, i want to say no. But this has been so unprecedented. I wouldnt be surprised if there was another surprise, a november surprise at this point. Michael steele . Yes or no . I think yes. I think there will be more to come. Absolutely. Yeah. Thanks a lot for that, guys. Im tired of these surprises. I was hoping you would both say. No since you both said yes, i guess i have to put on my seatbelt now and get ready. All right. Thank you. We have a republican roundtable coming up next. If youre watching us in washington, d. C. , you can join us. The pursuit of healthier. It begins from the second were born. Because, healthier doesnt happen all by itself. It needs to be earned every day. Using wellness to keep away illness. And believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. As a Health Services and Innovation Company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. So while the world keeps searching for healthier were here to make healthier happen. One of many pieces in my i havlife. Hma. So when my asthma symptoms kept coming back on my longterm control medicine. 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See if youre eligible for 12 months free at mybreo. Com. There was a time, a long, long time ago when our next guests were working toward a shared goal to make jeb bush the leader of the party. Joining us now, dave joins us from harford university. And on jeb bushs Financial Committee is now a member of the trump economic council. Ill start you both on the same question that i start everybody with at this point. Im sorry. Whether you like the horse race or not, were less than a week out and it is a horse race moment. So where do you see the race . Certainly this is a trend in Donald Trumps favor. I think the fundamentals are still pretty difficult. Theres some states that he has never led in and may never lead if that he has to win at least one or two of here in the closing days in order to get himself to 270. It doesnt look likely. If im the Clinton Campaign, maybe thinking about going out and buying about 10,000 bed pans. Theres certainly a lot of worries starting to build in the Clinton Campaign given where theyre spending money and where theyre going. Do you feel like the race is where . Do you feel your guy has pulled level with her . Or do you feel like it will play like the comeback kid . Some of the polls say hes ahead, some say tied, some say hes behind. The momentum, in sports, politics, my guess is that he will bring more people to the game on november 8th than secretary clinton. And obviously, president obama is super worried about that. Thats why he is doing these radio shows. So my guess is that this will be close. I think mr. Trump will pull this off on november 8th and hell be the 45th president of the u. S. And then well invite david and all those people who used to work with me. Well have to govern and figure out a way to get along together. Either talking about, hes been in North Carolina. Talking about michigan. Youre a man who is a date guy. As a man in the markets. When you look at those states and the history have those states, does it seem to you to make, to be in states that have not votes republican in a very long time . Remember the two states like michigan and wisconsin. They have republican governors and they are certainly helping them there. I was in make dloem county. And there were guys like Michael Moore saying ladies and gentlemen, wake up. Donald trump will be the next president. This is an unorthodox thing about mr. Trump. It is probably not super dated but some of these internal polls are telling him, he is in striking distance in those places. And it is sending a message that he is sending a message for all americans. Thats why he has a message for the africanamerican community, the latino community. He wants to build a coalition that includes everybody. So the blue States Strategy well turn it into a purple nation and well make this a presidency where all the american people. I like the strategy. I like the strategy and i think it will pan out as most of the things hes done with his intuition. Sometimes it gives some pain. In this case, im going to inflict some on you. Pretend youre Donald TrumpsCampaign Manager or strategist. Would you be having him spend his time the way he is or would you be pursuing a different path . I think theyve got most of it right. I would spend all of my time in the next few days in wisconsin, new hampshire. They have him going back to iowa. It looks like he has iowa put away. The coalition that has brought him where he is are noncollege educated White Working Class voters. You have a hot of them in wisconsin who werent there in the 2012 election. They werent there for mccain in 2008. I think he will have to take one of those two blue states. You can probably make an argument for virginia. I dont think there is a coalition for him to win. I think where he has to go is new hampshire, wisconsin, and thats about it. I dont see him winning in colorado. I dont see an opportunity for him to break through in michigan. I dont think there are enough working class voters to put him over the top. Im probably spending my time in those two states. Probably hit florida again to make sure you have that as a state where you can lock it home. And he doesnt win this election unless he runs the table on all the states that have been swing states over the last six or eight weeks. And then he has to go take another state or two. I think the opportunities are wisconsin and new hampshire. Let me say, the thing you said, of the traditional battleground states, that iowa is his strongest state. We see it in the polling all the time. Youre an iowa guy. A des moines resident. Just explain to me, i know part of is it demographics and it is an overwhelmingly white state. It was in 2012 and 200 wheat barack obama won it. So what has changed that makes iowa so much more resentmentive to trump than it was to john mccain . I think the wrong track number is driving a lot of this. There is a lot more frustration among voters. You saw it in the off years of 10 and 14. You had a much higher turnout among disaffected angry voters upset at washington. Trump seems to have really struck a chord with these voters and then you have on the other side, the Clinton Campaign is not an inspiring campaign. She doesnt have a good message for voters like that. I think obama was new and fresh and hopeful. The economy seems to be improving at a slow rate. Theres no credit being given to washington or to the Obama Campaign necessarily. So Hillary Clinton has failed on inspire a coalition of new voters that obama inspired in 2008 and 2012 with just incredibly high turnout in democratic precincts, even in whiter states like iowa and ohio. It is not happening. Thats where the opportunity is for donald trump. All right. Stay with us. Well continue this conversation in all its glory after these words from our sponsors. Fresher. More flavorful. Delicious. Only one egg with better nutrition like more vitamins d, e, and omega 3s. And 25 less saturated fat. Only one egg good enough for my family. Because why have ordinary when you can have the best. Egglands best. The only egg that gives you so much more better taste. Better nutrition. Better eggs. Better nutrition. Intercom the library [ kis now closing. ] ok kid, closing up. Goodnight. The hardest part about homework shouldnt be figuring out where to do it. Through internet essentials, comcast has connected over 3 Million People in need to lowcost internet at home. Welcome to a brighter future. Comcast. Were back with the author of the book, hopping over the rabbit hole. A fabulous book. Everyone should buy it. I want to ask you one question. One of my hobby horses. Ill talk about Donald Trumps taxes. We saw the New York Times. Another pretty brutal story that suggested that trump has manipulated tax rules, not manipulated the rules but played by the rules in a way to not pay taxes for many, many years. We saw it earlier. Given that donald trump has refused in contravention of all norms to release his taxes. And weve seen these stories. How can we come to any other conclusion but that he has not paid taxes for decades . Well, i think thats unfair. Hes acknowledged that he has paid millions and millions in taxes. I think the big issue for mr. Trump, because it is such a complex tax form. Youve seen the facebook and twitter page where he has seven feet of tax payments that he is going through. He doesnt feel as a businessman. You have to remember hes not a politician for the last 30 speier have these more simplified tax returns. So what i would say to you, hes done everything ethically and legally. The judge, theres a famous case that says you can do everything you can within legal limits to avoid paying zpaxs perhaps mr. Trump has done that. But if there were something wrong there, the irs would have let us know by now. He has basically in those debates, he sort of conceded that in fact he really hasnt paid federal taxes for a long time. Let me ask you that question. The same basic question. Is there any reason why i should conclude other than he hasnt paid taxes on the basis of his behavior . I dont think there is any reason to conclude what we already know. He took almost a billiondollar loss which would have allowed him to go two years into the past and 16 years into the future and write those losses off against in eye income. My guess is he probably hasnt paid any taxes in that long and thats why hes not releasing them he was doesnt want people to know that he hasnt paid taxes. I have to cut you off. Thank you both for being on the show. And well be right back. 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If youre still just managing your symptoms, talk with your gastroenterologist about humira. With humira, remission is possible. Hillary clinton far too many families today dont earn what they need and dont have the opportunities they deserve. I believe families deserve quality education for their kids, childcare they can trust and afford, equal pay for women, and jobs they can really live on. People ask me what will be different if im president . Well kids and families have been the passion of my life and they will be the heart of my presidency. Im Hillary Clinton and i approve this message. I found a better deal on prescriptions. We found lower copays. And a free wellness visit. New plan. Same doctor. Im happy. Its medicare open enrollment. Have you compared plans yet . Its easy at medicare. Gov. Or you can call 1800medicare. Medicare open enrollment. Youll never know unless you go. I did it. You can too. Thanks for watching and sayonara. Hardball with Chris Matthews is next. Close but no cigar. Lets play hardball. Im Chris Matthews. Six days from now at 7 00 p. M. Eastern, the first state polls will be closing. Georgia, kentucky, south carolina, vermont and virginia. Today donald trump, Hillary Clinton and their surrogates jetted out across the country to deliver their closing arguments. In florida, trump called hillary crooked is that a liar