Hed do all the expected things like read briefs and go over speeches, but thanks to this reporting from the times, we also know that he sometimes p y played words with friends on his ipad, he sometimes watched sports and then he sometimes wrote taunting emails to white house staff if their team had lost in sports that night. The times also said memorably that the president also ate a latenight snack of exactly lightly salted almonds. That part im not sure i ever really believed. But it was during one of those late nights of alone time in the treaty room, early in president obamas presidency, the night of november 2nd, 2010, when president obama put in a call to the man who was then the minority leader in the house of representatives. He called republican congressman john boehner of ohio. Now, president obama had to call john boehner that night because he needed to congratulate boehner on becoming the new speaker of the house. He had to offer his congratulations for boehner ousting the president s own party from power and taking control of congress. And they did so with an exclamation point that year. In the 2010 midterms, democrats lost six seats in the u. S. Senate, they lost 63 seats in the house. 63 63 seats that had been held by a democrat instead flipped to a republican. One of the biggest single election swings in u. S. History. Maybe the biggest. Putting in that conciliatory phone call to the guy who had just kicked his team out of congress, that was not the last indignity that president obama would face over that huge electoral loss, because in addition to calling john boehner from the treaty room alone that night, the next day, he had to go out in front of everybody and face the press. Some election nights are more fun than others. Some are exhilarating, some are humbling. But every election, regardless of who wins and who loses is is a reminder that in our democracy, power rests not with those of us in elected office, but with the people we have the privilege to serve. I told john boehner and Mitch Mcconnell last night that i am very eager to sit down with members of both parties and figure out how we can move forward together. Im wondering, when you call your friends, like congressman perielo or governor strickland and you see 19 state legislatures go to the other side, governorships in swing states, the Democratic Party set back, what does it feel like . It feels bad. It feels bad, jake, it feels bad. But its not like president obama was the first president to find himself in this badfeeling spot two years into his first term. I think its important to point out as well that, you know, a couple of great communicators, Ronald Reagan and bill clinton were standing at this podium two years into their presidency getting very similar questions. This is something that i think every president needs to go through. Because, you know, the responsibilities of this office are so enormous and so many people are depending on what we do. And in the rush of activity, sometimes we lose track of, you know, the ways that we connected with folks that got us here in the first place. Now, im not recommending for every future president that they take a shellacking like i did last night. You know, im sure there are easier ways to learn these lessons. And thereby the president of the United States singlehandily revived the vernacular use of the word shellacking, for all of us. But president obama was right about a real hazard of early presidencies. The same thing did happen to Randall Reagan and to bill clinton in the first midterms of their presidencies. In reagans first midterm, republicans lost 26 seats in the house. Ronald reagan was trying to be as upbeat as possible. Still, it was a conciliatory president who met with reporters, one who talked about seeking Bipartisan Solutions with the new congress. There have been concessions and compromises in both directions, on all of the major issues and we expect to continue to work with the congress in that way. Reporter top aides admit that the Election Results were a shock. By white house count, only 50 of the candidate mrs mr. Reagan campaigned for won yesterday. That was Ronald Reagan in the first midterm of his presidency, 1982. Eight years later on november 8th, 1984, the curse of the first midterm president bill clinton in an epic, historic loss for the democrats at the time. Tonight, the sound you hear is the sound of a moving van backing up to the United States preparing to move in a republican majority. At this hour, the republicans have picked up the seven seats that they need to take control of that chamber. We still do not have a raeeadin on the house of representatives. The republicans need 40 seats to gain control of that, but theyre feeling confident tonight and with good reason. Across the country, there is a republican sweep that is underway. The last time the republicans took control of the house was 1954, when Elvis Presley was a 19yearold unknown and Color Television was just being introduced. Ultimately, that night, democrats lost eight senate seats and they lost 52 house seats, including the seat that was held by the thenspeaker of the house. And i should say, that was 12 years after a similar shellacking happened to Ronald Reagan, not eight years. Sorry, never do math on live television. That first midterm for bill clinton, 1984, republicans called it their revolution at the time. It wasnt actually a revolution, it was just a strong midterm showing by the republican party. But the president himself did find himself struggling to string together the right words when he tried to describe it the next day. Reporter stunned by the publics rejection of his party, a visibly exhausted bill clinton said he will work with the new republican majority and gets the voters message. I think they were saying two things to me. Or maybe three. They were saying let me maybe 300. I think they were saying, look, we just dont like what we see when we watch washington. We dont think government can solve all the problems. And we dont want the democrats telling us from washington that they know what is right about everything. Reporter the president had no choice but to take responsibility. This fall he went to five states where democrats won. But in 13 states where mr. Clinton campaigned, his candidates lost. And in the rest of the country, democrats didnt even want the him to show up. The white house tried to say it was a vote against all politicians, but no incumbent republicans lost. So the first midterm after a new president takes office is very often a dramatic loss for that president s party. It is normal for the president s party to lose ground. Sometimes to lose a lot of ground. The only real exception to that rule in modern times was after 9 11, when the shock of that attack and the transformation of the country and our politics thereafter were seen as highly unusual factors that kept republicans from losing seats they might have otherwise been expected to lose in the 2002 midterms. With those extenuating circumstances, republicans really didnt lose ground in that first george w. Bush midterm. But, republicans arguably paid double the next time around in 2006. After george w. Bush got reelected in 04, his party lost control of both the house and the senate in 2006. And thats the pattern of how it usually goes in midterms. The party that holds the white house usually has a bad night on Midterm Election nights. And thats one way to think about the elections that are coming up this year, in historical context. You go all the way back to the Truman Administration of 1946. You look at the first midterm o of a new presidency, and you are looking at a sea of losses. Theres a reason all those bars on that bar graph go down. It would be normal, it would be business as usual to expect president Trumps Republican Party to lose ground in congress this november. But, of course, nothing is normal anymore. How do we tell this year . How do we tell if the historic pattern is going to hold this year, this november, in a year when democrats taking control of congress would mean a completely different world in washington, both in terms of policy, but honestly, also in terms of the myriad scandals of this new administration. How do we tell whats going to happen . Short answer, i dont know. The smart money these days tends to say that the generic ballot is the best metric to look at. Just poll on this simple question. Which party do you want to be in control in washington. Thats called the generic ballot question. And a lot of experts say thats the best finger in the wind for predicting elections, like this years midterms. The problem with that as a metric this year is that that particular polling question has had answers that have been all over the place. Just over the past few months, the polling on that question, on the generic ballot has swung wildly, from democrats being up by 15 points to democrats being up by just 4 points to democrats back up to a 10point lead to actually republicans up by a point. Its just, its been all over the place. Theres no way to take a responsible average. But heres another metric, a very human one. What do the people in congress themselves think is going to happen to them this november . On that metric, we do actually have a pretty clear answer. You can call it the sinking ship metric if youre feeling a little bit rude. And on the sinking ship metric, what you should look at is the sheer number of republicans who are leaving congress of their own accord before a single vote has been cast. Their numbers include the speaker of the house, the Top Republican in congress, paul ryan, who announced in april that hes retiring. Paul ryan is third in line to the presidency. Hes the highestranking republican in congress. Hes leaving, but he is in good company on his way out the door. By our count, 39 House Republicans and 4 Senate Republicans have announced theyre retiring or resigning this election cycle rather than running for reelection. And yes, some democrats are leaving, too, but republicans right now are leaving at least double the rate of their democratic colleagues. Is the simple fact that so many more republican incumbents are leaving, is that alone a determinative sign for how tough things are going to be for republicans . Are the particular republicans who are leaving leaving vacancies that democrats have a good chance of picking up . Is there really any reliable metric for predicting these things in an era that is distinguished now by how not normal everything in politics has become. Joining us now is the great Steve Kornacki. Steve, thank you for being here tonight. Happy to be here. So looking at those numbers, obviously, theres some democrats who are leaving too, but its about double the number of republicans. Is it actually a lot . Is this a lot of retirements on the republican side . It is, yeah. And heres how i kind of look at those numbers. That 39, you can take some of those off, because there are republicans who are running for the senate, running for governor. Theyre not really retiring. They actually see opportunity this year. So if you look at just the core group, who are actually retiring and walking away, that number brings you down to 22. Okay. But that 22 by comparison, think back to one of the last major wave elections we had in a midterm, you had it there, 2010. Barack obamas first midterm. Democrats got shellacked. How Many Democrats fit into that category of few retirements in 2010 . It was 11. So half the number we had now. Go back to 2006, another one of those midterms, bushs second midterm, republicans got shellacked then. How many did you have . You had eight. So if you want to find a comparable number to the number pure retirements youre seeing right now, the 22 right now, youve got to go back to 1994. That was the 20 democrats that year who fit the same category. That was the year democrats lost 52 seats in the house, lost control. I think its fair to say that what that number is telling us is that psychologically, thats where republicans heads are in washington right now. If you look at that 22, there are a lot that come from seats that are potentially kpre competitive. There are a lot who are looking at their first potentially competitive reelection race and say, im not in the mood for that after all. Maybe i dont want to lose or raise a lot of money. Im not in the mood for that kind of thing. Psychologically, i think its safe to say, thats where republicans are. They are bracing for the potential of a wave this year. And when you look at these things, do you think their psychological frame of mind is a good metric . These are the same republicans who two or three weeks before election day on 2017 were calling on donald trump to drop out of the race in the wake of that access Hollywood Tape saying, we can within the win with trump, we need pence to be at the top of the ticket. We know what ended up happening there. I feel like this midterm this year, you put a lot of the traditional metrics that we look at trying to analyze these things, this is a great test. This is a great Political Science test this midterm, because we will see how these things move if his approval r e rating ticks up more, if that generic ballot changes. If we look at roughly what were looking at now, well look at a lot of traditional metrics that are pointing in one direction. That are pointing towards what history suggests what is going to happen this year. And if that doesnt happen, i think one of the questions that was posed by 2016, is are the rules of politics permanently altered, or was 2016 sort of an aberration. And that story will become clear as time passes, but this is a key data point, i think this year, what happens in this midterm. Theres a lot more to say on this subject and the other various metrics that weve got heading into november. There are other things i want to ask you about, so dont go anywhere. Steve kornacki is our guest right now. He will be here again in a moment, because theres a lot more to talk about. 2016 was not a great time for democrats, but democrats have sort of been on a roll ever since. The question about whether or not that is important, that is predictive, stay with us. face the world as a face to be reckoned with. Only botox® cosmetic is fda approved to temporarily make moderate to severe frown lines, crows feet and forehead lines look better. Its a quick 10 minute cosmetic treatment given by a doctor to reduce those lines. There is only one botox® cosmetic, ask for it by name. The effects of botox® cosmetic, may spread hours to weeks after injection, causing serious symptoms. Alert your doctor right away as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems, or muscle weakness can be a sign of a lifethreatening condition. Do not receive botox® cosmetic if you have a skin infection. Side effects may include allergic reactions, injection site pain, headache, eyelid and eyebrow drooping and eyelid swelling. Tell your doctor about your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, and medications including botulinum toxins as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. Leave your mark on the world. Minimize its mark on you. Get started at botoxcosmetic. Com. Minimize its mark on you. If these packs have the same number of bladder leak pads, i bet you think bigger is better. Actually, its bulkier. Always discreet quickly turns liquid to gel, for drier protection thats a lot less bulky. Always discreet. Delivcrisp leaves of lettuce,s. Freshlymade dressing. Clean food that looks this good, eaten at your desk. Panera. Food as it should be. Now delivered. November 2016, Iowa Republicans accomplished something they had been trying for and failing at for nearly 20 years. They finally took control of the entire state government. Iowa had a republican governor, terry branstad, a republican majority in the state house, but before 2016, they didnt have the senate. The iowa senate was, ever so delicately, still controlled by democrats. It had been for years, until november 8th, 2016. Donald trump won iowa by a mile. And on that big red night in iowa, in the state senate, republicans took the seats of six incumbent democrats, including the democrats majority leader in the senate. They took control of the senate. Here was the Des Moines Register in response. Quote, it is official. Iowa has become a red state. The majority of voters chose donald trump to be president of the United States. Five of the six individuals representing iowa in washington are republicans. Republicans will take control of the full legislature in january. The outcome of tuesdays election has left many iowans feeling fearful about the future of this state. So iowa, after the 2016 election, coming to this new reckoning. We are a red state now. And you can feel the sort of implicit next question. Is that a permanent status . Is this who we are now forever . But there followed an interesting twist in that story. A state senator had unexpectedly passed away right before the november election in 2016. Iowa scheduled a special election to replace that senator and they scheduled that special for about a month and a half after the trump clinton president ial election where iowa had gone so red. This is interesting. They actually scheduled that special election right in the middle of the holiday season. They scheduled it for two days after christmas. And it was expected that a democrat would hold on to that seat. That district had voted for Hillary Clinton by 17 points. But when they back to do that special election just 17 weeks after the trump clinton election, the democrat in that special didnt turn in the kind of performance that Hillary Clinton had shown in that district. The democrat did not win in that district by 17 points like clinton had. The democrat won that race by 48 points, which means that district alone shifted 31 points in democrats direction, right after the trump turin directicl direction. 31 points. Since then, if you look at all the special elections that have taken place across the country, thats kind of been the pattern. Its been very clear which party has the momentum. Since the 2016 president ial election, democrats running in special elections overall have seen an average shift in their favor of 12 percentage points. If that holds, if you need to add 12 points to the average democratic margin in every race in the country, that would be a huge democratic tied, right . Well, special elections are special. There are reasons to be cautious about extrapolating too much, but since the trump clinton race, democrats in special and regular elections across the country have taken away a total of 44 seats previously held by republicans. And many of them in the unlikeliest places. Like in the oklahoma statehouse, where four seats in the legislature flipped from republican to democrat, since trump was elected. In kentucky, one local district that voted for trump by a margin of nearly 50 points, they just elected a democrat to the Kentucky House from that district. The democrat won by a margin of 37 points, which means that was an 86point swing in democrats favor in kentucky. And kentucky republicans are looking weak in other ways. The republican leader in the house just lost his seat in a republican primary, where a firsttime candidate kentucky teacher took the Republican Leaders seat. And of course, there was the biggest flip of them all. The democrats flipping the u. S. Senate seat in alabama that had previously belonged to attorney general Jeff Sessions. Democrat doug jones now hold Jeff Sessions old seat in the senate, even though trump won the state of alabama by 28 points. Even where democrats havent actually been winning, they have been spooking republicans even in red states and red districts. Kansas fourth Congressional District is a very red district. That district elected trump by 27. Mike Pompeo Mike Pompeo by 31 points, when he was still in the house. In the special election to replace mike pompeo when he got promoted into the trump cabinet, the democratic candidate came within six points of the republican. Didnt win, but, whoo, thats close for a district that red. In arizona, republican congressman trent franks old district, donald trump had won there by 20 points. But then there was a special election to replace trent franks. The democrat candidate came within five points of winning. So the math is stark, its clear. It has been all year. The question is, is this actually a good way of judging how the november midterms will play out . Does this mean that democrats are going to get kocongress in november . Is it possible for democrats to turn these close shaves theyve been pulling off in otherwise republican places, is it possible for them to figure out how to turn them into actual wins when it really counts . Joining us again is the great Steve Kornacki. Steve, thank you for being here. Sure. How significant is this sort of net swing weve been seeing as a metric. Is this the sort of thing that can help predict whats going to happen in november . It can be. There have been so many congressional and state legislative and they are pointing overwhelmingly in one direction. Im thinking back even to 2010. I think there are more mixed signals in what proved to be a wave Election Year. I think there were more mixed signals in the special election. I think were seeing a more clear, onedirection signal here. What it says to me, clearly, definitely, im convinced the Democratic Base is energized in a way we havent seen in a long time, and barring something totally unforeseen, is going to be that energized heading into november. That makes the question in the key variable, will the Republican Base match nah energy on election day. And so when i look at these special elections, i think if you look at the house special elections, we may have a graphic on this, actually. If you look at all of the special elections for the house, this is interesting. What you see here, the trump margin in 16, and what happened in the special election. I think this is the most encouraging one for democrats. Thats the trept frant frank. And this was recent. Trump had won the district by 21. A republican won the special by five. But heres why that is significant if youre a democrat, encouraging. The republicans like to say, this is about energy. This is about democrats circling the date of the special election, going out, and Republican Voters not doing that. Arizona 8 is a mailin district a state where they do mailin voting. Everybody gets a ballot. Republicans got ballots there. Republicans sent back ballots. If you look at the composition of the electorate, how many were republicans, how many were its completely comparable to what you had in 2014, which was a great year for republicans. This was not a surge in democratic turnout here. It looked very similar and yet the result changed 16 points. I think for democrats, thats the most encouraging one. If you look at that list and you say, if youre a republican and you want to point to some optimism, it would be georgia 6. That was the Karen Handel Ossoff race about a year ago. That was the exception, trump won it by a point, republicans won it by four. What republicans will tell you happened there, this is their theory, that race got nationalized in a way none of these others did. Tens of millions of dollars came there, National Media was talking about it. It created this environment that they say will prevail nationally in the midterms and youll get a version of georgia six everywhere. Its a theory. Thats what they would point to. By the weight of the evidence, democrats have more to point to right now. And for a nationalized race, you cant nationalize every single race in the country, when everybody in the house is up, you cant put tens of millions of dollars in every race. Fascinating. Steve kornacki, im going to keep you around a little bit longer tonight, because i can. Okay. Much more to talk about. Lots more ahead, including more with steve and more about what makes for a very bad prediction. Stay with us. We had long deployments in iraq. Im really grateful that usaa was able to take care of my family while i was overseas serving. It was my very first car accident. We were hit from behind. I called usaa and the first thing they asked was are you ok . they always thank you for your service, which is nice because as a spouse you serve too. Were the hayles and were usaa members for life. See how much you could save with usaa by bundling your auto and home insurance. Get a quote today. Gives skin the moisture it needs and keeps it there longer with lockin Moisture Technology skin is petal smooth after all, a cleansers just a cleanser unless its olay. Hello. Lets go for a ride on a peloton. Lets go grab a couple thousand friends and chase each other up a hill. Lets go make a personal best, then beat it with your personal better than best. Lets go bring the worlds best instructors right to you. Better yet, lets go bring the entire new york studio live. Lets go anytime, anywhere, with anyone whos willing. And lets go do it all right here. Ready to go . Peloton. You might take something for your heart. Or joints. But do you take something for your brain. With an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is the number one selling brainhealth supplement in drug stores nationwide. Prevagen. The name to remember. If you have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, Little Things can be a big deal. Thats why theres otezla. Otezla is not an injection or a cream. Its a pill that treats psoriasis differently. With otezla, 75 clearer skin is achievable after just 4 months,. With reduced redness, thickness, and scaliness of plaques. And the otezla prescribing information has no requirement for routine lab monitoring. Dont use if youre allergic to otezla. Otezla may cause severe diarrhea, nausea, or vomiting. Tell your doctor if these occur. Otezla is associated with an increased risk of depression. Tell your doctor if you have a history of depression or suicidal thoughts, or if these feelings develop. Some people taking otezla reported weight loss. Your doctor should monitor your weight and may stop treatment. Other side effects include upper respiratory tract infection and headache. Tell your doctor about all the medicines you take and if youre pregnant or planning to be. Otezla. Show more of you. Scott walker just keeps he keeps like, hit me, eric. And im like, oh, okay, you know. Former attorney general eric holder did not go away quietly when he left the obama administration. Hes been playing hit me, eric all over the country, with some people you might not expect. And that very interesting story is next. Man it takes a lot ok to run this business, but i really love it. Im on the move all day long, and sometimes i dont eat the way i should. So i drink boost to get the nutrition im missing. Boost high protein now has 33 more protein, along with 26 essential vitamins and minerals. And it has a guaranteed great taste. Man boost gives me everything i need to be up for doing what i love. Boost high protein. Be up for it. gasp singsong budget meeting sweet. If you compare last quarter to this quarter. Various mmm. Its no wonder everything seems a little better with the creamy taste of philly, made with fresh milk and real cream. With the creamy taste of philly, i was wondering if an electric toothbrush really cleans better than a manual. And my hygienist says it does but theyre not all the same. Who knew . I had no idea. So she said, look for one thats shaped like a dental tool with a round brush head. Go pro with oralb. Oralbs rounded brush head surrounds each tooth to gently remove more plaque, and oralb is the First Electric toothbrush brand accepted by the American Dental Association for its effectiveness and safety. My mouth feels so clean. Ill only use an oralb. Oralb. Brush like a pro. It was almost midnight on january 16th, which was a school night, but wisconsins republican Governor Scott walker wanted everybody to please wake the heck up. 11 28 p. M. , all caps, wakeup call. Cant presume that voters know we are getting positive things done in wisconsin. Two minutes later, 11 30 p. M. , again, all caps, wakeup call. Cant presume voters know that more people are working than ever before. Another no minutes later, 11 32 p. M. , again, all caps, wakeup call, cant presume that voters know that we invested more actual dollars presumably Governor Walker went to bed with his phone in his hand, because he woke up and kept going. 9 09 the next morning, all caps, wakeup call, 9 14 a. M. , all caps, wakeup call. And on and on and on. Hes like the worldest most broken snooze button. The thing Governor Walker was trying to alert everyone to was the fact that democrats in his state had just flipped a deep red state senate seat in western wisconsin. Donald trump had won that red district by 17 points. But it was the democrat in a special election who won that seat, and won by ten points. It was a 27point swing in the democrats favor on what was considered to be a safe republican district. And when that that supposedly safe republican district suddenly went to a democrat in the special election this past january, Governor Scott walker then spent the better part of the night and follow morning rage tweeting at Wisconsin Republicans for letting it happen. For letting that safe republican seat slip through their firpgs. Fingers. Wakeup call wakeup call but it turns out that Governor Scott walker had Something Else to work with besides just his phone. By the time he was rage tweeting that way, Governor Walker had already decided that he would refuse to hold a special election for two other vacant seats in wisconsin, seats that had both previously been held by republicans. And honestly, it seemed a little suspicious. Basically everybody in the state thought it was pretty clear and obvious that the governor was just worried that republicans might lose those seats to democrats if the people of wisconsin actually had a chance to vote on filling those seats in twos more special elections. Whether or not that was the governors naked, partisan motivation for refusing to hold elections and fill those seats, the law in wisconsin was pretty clear in saying that he had to. You cant just leave seats hope for months and months and months and not let people vote on somebody to fill them. Its a representative democracy. You need representatives. But that is what the governor tried to do. And for a long time, it look like he was going to get away with it. Until somebody intervened. And that someone was eric holder, the former attorney general of the United States, under president obama. After the 2016 election, eric holder and president obama formed a new group called the National Democratic redistricting committee. And one of the first places they made themselves known was wisconsin, where Governor Walker was outright refusing to hold elections to fill those open seats in the state legislature. They sued Governor Walker to force him to hold special elections for those open seats. And it took three separate judges to rule against him in that days. But finally, Governor Walker admitted defeat and put a couple of special elections on the calendar. Eric holder, one, scott walker, zero. So you won in court today. Yep. In wisconsin . Mmhmm. [ applause ] thats another gift that keeps on giving, you know. Scott walker just keeps he keeps like, hit me, eric, and im like, oh, okay, you know . That was march of this year, right after eric Holders Group won that court battle against Governor Scott walker in wisconsin. A couple of months later, eric holder and his group notched another win when Rebecca Dallet won a tenyear term to the wisconsin Supreme Court. And its weird to vote on judges, but they do in wisconsin. And in that race, that was the first time a candidate backed by liberals had won an open seat on that court in 23 years. Eric holder had campaigned for dallet in madison and milwaukee, his group had pushed over 165,000 in digital ads to boost her campaign. Meanwhile, a conservative candidate who Governor Scott walker personally endorsed for a different judgeship, that walkerendorsed candidate lost his race in that election. And just to put a little bit of icing on the cake, voters also rejected a republican Ballot Initiative that had been supported by Governor Walker as well. So what have you been up to since 2016 . Eric holder has been busy. Hes been beating one of the highestprofile republican governors in the country up and down the ballot, in and out of court, and on the governors home turf. And hes up for more. The main thrust of this group that eric holder founded with president obama is actually about the district maps that determine which candidates run where. When republicans swept the Midterm Elections in 2010, the first midterms of the obama era, not only did they retake control of congress, they also took control of 21 legislative chambers across the country. And legislative chambers draw district maps. Them taking all of those legislative chambers allowed republicans to rewrite legislative and congressional maps in all those states, in what turned out to be an organized, effective effort to basically lock republicans into power for the next ten years, by virtue of the districts that they had drawn for themselves. The eric holder National Democratic redistricting committee, this group that he founded with president obama, theyre fighting that battle. Theyre trying to fight back for democrats against what republicans so successfully pulled off with those new maps that they got drawn after 2010. The eric holder barack obama group has pursued lawsuits in virginia and georgia and texas and North Carolina and pennsylvania, to try to get states to ungerrymander their maps. In january, North Carolinas gerrymandered congressional map was found unconstitutional by a group of judges who found that the maps were motivated by invidious partisan intent. In february, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court also took apart the republican gerrymandered maps for that state too. The court issued a new sort of technocratically drawn congressional map where the districts were redrawn to be more fair to both parties. So at least in those two states, the voting districts will already be more fair in time for this years Midterm Elections in november. And thats just one part of the multipronged strategy that eric Holders Group is working on this year. Steve kornacki got the groups executive director to explain what that effort looks like now and what to expect next. So when you look at the map, you know, democrats are trying to take, i think, 23 seats right thousand to get control of the house, where is gerrymandering, the gerrymandering you say republicans have done, where is that most prevalent on that house battle field right now . Our map is to look at the map through every districting lens. And when you do that, you want to go after the states that are most gerrymandered. So those states are ohio, michigan, North Carolina, texas, virginia, florida, wisconsin all the biggies, it sounds like. So all the big ones. And you can see from that, there is a direct correlation, particularly with the governors races. There are a lot of gubernatorial races in those states this year, which means we are electing the governor who will oversee the redistricting process. And there are a lot of house seats in those states, as well. What is your your group, folks looking at this and saying, hey, im a democrat and this is my hope for fixing this issue, what is it that, if theyre looking to support your group or something, what is it youre giving them this year . Is it looking at getting ballot questions in these states . Is it just elect democrats . Is that the solution here . Just elect democrats in these states . So our model, which is what makes us different and has never been doene before is a comprehensive approach. It does include elections. It includes getting democrats elected so that the republicans arent controlling the entire process again. It does include reform, where we can reform the system and make the process more fair. We also have a very aggressive litigation strategy, because they broke the law and they should be held accountable. So weve seen real success on redistricting in the courts. And also Voter Engagement and making sure that the grassroots are involved in redistricting, that theres real Public Awareness about the significance of this issue. And in terms of public activity were going to see from you from your group this fall, whats that going to look like publicly . Are people going to see you guys out there talking about this . Absolutely. Youve seen us a lot already. We were very involved in the governors race in virginia. Weve been involved in some of the Reform Efforts that youve seen. We were very involved in a Supreme Court race in wisconsin, because that was an important race for redistricting. Weve identified 12 target states around the country. Attorney general holder has been on the road traveling for candidates and weve done a lot as well in terms of raising awareness around gerrymandering, filing lawsuits and the rest. So youll see more of us throughout 2018 and beyond. What about barack obama . Will we see him more . Hes talked about this as one of his most important issues. This is one of his most important issues, and i think well see more of him as 2018 continues. Is that a hint of something you know and we dont . Youll have to ask him. Sthafs str that was Steve Kornacki with the executive director of eric holders new organization that is committed to ungerrymandering congressional maps across the country. As you heard there, state lawmakers play a really Important Role not in just how state politics work, but also how the entire u. S. Congress looks, as well. And right now it is of unavoidable political importance to the u. S. Congress that members of that congress are grappling with one of the biggest political scandals to hit this country in decades. I have more on that, next. And b, not in my yard policy. But with scotts turf builder weed feed, bill has nothing to worry about. It kills weeds and greens grass, guaranteed. This is a scotts yard. And greens grass, guaranteed. Okay, so. My mom washes the dishes. Before she puts them in the dishwasher. And if they come out gross. She washes them again. So what does the dishwasher do . New cascade platinum lets your dishwasher be the dish washer. These new actionpacs unleash three different cleaning agents that dissolve food, lift it off, and rinse it away the first time. Wow thats clean and less work for my mom. New cascade platinum. Nothing cleans better. And the wolf huffed and puffed. Like you do sometimes, grandpa . Well, when you have copd, it can be hard to breathe. So my doctor said. Symbicort can help you breathe better. Starting within 5 minutes. It doesnt replace a rescue inhaler for sudden symptoms. Doctor symbicort helps provide significant improvement of your lung function. Symbicort is for copd, including chronic bronchitis and emphysema. It should not be taken more than twice a day. It may increase your risk of lung infections, osteoporosis, and some eye problems. Tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high Blood Pressure before taking it. Grandpa symbicort could mean a day with better breathing. Watch out, piggy giggles get symbicort free at saveonsymbicort. Com. If you cant afford your medication, astrazeneca may be able to help. Now im gonna tell my momma that im a traveller im gonna follow the sun now im gonna tell my momma that im a traveller transitions™ light under control™ tand, our adulte children are here. So, we save by using tide. Which means we use less. Three generations of clothes cleaned in one wash. Those are moms. Anybody seen my pants . Nothing cleans better. Put those on dad its got to be tide. Last summer, congressman zoe loftgren wrote a letter to a congressional colleague. Congresswoman loftgren is on the House Judiciary Committee and at the time she wrote this letter, she was the number three most senior democrat on that committee. So shes the thirdranking democrat on the committee. She wrote this letter to the number twomost senior democrat on the same committee, who is congressman jerry nadler. Quote, it has been brought to my attention that you are proactively seeking meetings with caucus colleagues to discuss the top democratic position on the House Judiciary Committee. I also understand youre asserting that i would not be a candidate for this slot if it were vacant. I request that you refrain from characterizing my intentions. Oh politico. Com obtained that letter and the way they understood it based on their reporting was that congresswoman zoe loftgren was basically ar e arguing that the top democratic seat on that committee shouldnt be handed out purely on the basis of seniority. She was arguing that she should be in contention for the top job, if it opened up. Now, at the time zoe loftgren wrote this letter, the Ranking Member position, the top democratic position on that committee was not open. It was held by longtime, long, long, longtime congressman, john conyers. At the time of that letter, it would be months still before john conyers would announce his resignation in the wake of a whole bunch of Sexual Misconduct allegations against him. Even before john conyers got ousted from that top democratic job on that committee, though, it was clear there was something unusual going on inside the Democratic Party in congress when it came to that committee. Democrats were head up and fighting amongst themselves about what the process would be to pick a new leader for that committee, about who would get that particular top job on that particular committee. They were fighting about it, even while conyers was still there. And thats in part because of what that particular committee does. In addition to overseeing Law Enforcement agencies and considering legislation relating to the judicial system, that committee, the House Judiciary Committee is also where they handle impeachments. Impeachments of all kinds, just in case. Just in case the circumstances ever arise in congress, its the Judiciary Committee that handles the impeachments of judges, cabinet officials and if there was an impeachment effort against the president the House Judiciary Committee would handle that too. Impeachments are only supposed to happen in the case of conduct so egregious it ought to transcend partisan lines and not a party thing. But wake up, realistically, President Trump could stand in fifth avenue and shoot someone and not have to worry about impeachment against him, not as long as paul ryan and the republicans are in charge of the house. That said, if the Democratic Party did win the house in november then honestly impeachment is a thing that might come up, depending. If it did the democratic led House Judiciary Committee would become the center of the political universe. So the far in advance fight over who would be the top democrat on the Judiciary Committee. Right now its run by the republicans but depending what happens this fall, that might change. Now Jerry Nadlers team argued for that top democratic position that he should get the gig because of his, quote, demonstrated leadership on impeachment in the 90s. Lofgre for her part said she would be better to lead impeachment proceedings because shes also been on the Committee Staff during president nixons impeachment hearings. Double impeachment experience. In the end, jerry nadler, the number two democrat, after conniers and not logren, got the position. As democrats continue to make headway in elections across the country, they are divided about whether they should even talk about the i word in public. Whether or not theyre talking about it in public, it is clear that it is a live issue within democratic politics. If for one thing, it is anima animating heated congressional fights among House Democrats who like each other. And its sending everyone back to the history books on how to do an impeachment right if it comes to that. When it comes to the politics of the i word there are lessons in recent history for how you could screw it up. Watch. You were there 20 years ago in 1998 when your party decided to push impeachment against bill clinton in a midterm year and that 1998 election has the distinction of one of the rare midterms where the White House Party actually gained seats. Was impeachment the reason the democrats gained seats . I dont think there was any question about it. The inquiry was opened a month before. Was that a part of the party base calling the shots, this is what we want . Our people need it . A handful of democrats wanted it too. Nobody knew how this was going to bounce. Theres a lot of nervousness on politicians when something gets thrown up at you like this, and there was democrats in suburban districts who werent sure how this was going to play and voted to go ahead with the investigation. They didnt know how clinton would handle it. At the end of the day he handled it well, turning it on republicans and turning it into democratic gains. There were a lot of republicans who despised clinton, wanted to get even with clinton, undo everything he was doing. So the blue dress came out, they said were going to impeach him now. Cable news was not a big a factor at this had point, but talk radio certainly fuelled it and the end result you have a rabid Republican Base calling for it. But it was like do you know what youre getting into here look at the facts and take a deep breath before we vote on it. Were you saying were going to pay for this in a month or were you saying this might work out. Going back and talking to their base and republican meetings at night they said lets get the guy. Thinking this would gin up their turnout base. And not realizing it gins up the other base as well. And thats what happened. Its one thing to say were going to look at this in due course, do an investigation but that was basically the republican message in the end if we get elected well impeach this guy and we lost a half dozen seats instead. Joining us now is steve cur knacky who just did that interview. Hes describing the internal dynamics in the Republican Caucus when deciding what to do about impeachment. Hes like, yeah, we were wrong. So after they get political blow back and lose seats after their impeachment efforts against clinton, whats to the republicans who were saying this is our ticket to victory . This is how we ride to new political heights . This is the story of the end of newt gringichs political career. Newt predicted this was going to result in the gain of 40 seats in the republican house. He was talking about a huge majority. He was saying were going to get 40 seats . He had a public speech he said that in july or august of 98. The star report landed september of the 1998 he told congress i think i found impeachable offenses. A month before, a republicans and a few democrats vote well open an impeachment formally. A month later, republicans one of the rare exceptions to history, they lost seats. The Opposition Party lost seats in the election. Days later news beggingrich was deposed as speaker. This has been a lot of fun tonight, steve. Thanks for being here. More to talk about. Stay with us. Well be right back. This is important for people with asthma. Yes. Its a targeted medicine proven to help prevent severe asthma attacks, and lower oral steroid use. About 50 of people with severe asthma have too many cells called eosinophils in their lungs. Fasenra™ is designed to work with the body to target and remove eosinophils. Fasenra™ is an addon injection for people 12 and up with severe eosinophilic asthma. Dont use fasenra™ for sudden breathing problems or other problems caused by eosinophils. Fasenra™ may cause headache, sore throat, and allergic reactions. Get help right away if you have swelling of your face, mouth, and tongue, or trouble breathing. Dont stop your asthma treatments unless your doctor tells you to. Tell your doctor if your asthma worsens or if you have a parasitic infection. Fasenra™ is a targeted treatment for eosinophilic asthma. Thats important. Ask an asthma specialist about fasenra™. Now that im on my way do you still think im crazy standing here today i couldnt make you love me applebees 2 for 20, now with steak. Now thats eatin good in the neighborhood. That does it for us tonight. This has been a fun show. We wanted to take a deep dive big look at this Election Year thats coming faster and faster down the pike with each passing day. Thank you to steve considkornac helping us out this year. This is going to be a fascinating Midterm Election year. No matter what happens, its just getting started. Now its time for the last word with lawrence odonnell. Lack to our last word memorial day special. Last year President Trump provoked the appointment of a special prosecutor after he fired the fbi director who was investigating russian influence in the campaign. And then the president admitted on National Television that he fired the fbi director because of the russia investigation. Regardless of recommendation i was going to fire comey knowing there was no good time to do it. In fact, when i decided to do it, i said to myself, this russia thing with trump and russia is a madeup story. Not long after that there was a mass i have