Earning his salary tonight at the big board and especially watching this has come down to absentee ballots, its come down to exhausting the raw vote tonight. We are fortunate that they apparently are diligent bookkeepers in southwestern pennsylvania, steve. Well have one holdout. It may not matter because we just got a big dose of clarity. Weve been sitting on these numbers for so long, we have to reset here, 579 votes. Thats the lead for conor lamb in this thing. What is done and off the board, all of allegheny. I thought this was the case, this is definitely the case. Westmoreland is all in, the absentee is in, the two outstanding precincts are in. All thats left in this district, we move down to washington and greene. Greene is a tiny county. I love tiny counties. Youre sitting at 200 absentee votes in greene and 1,195 in washington. Were sitting at 1,400 is all thats left. Youre looking at saccone would have to get 90 or something in this. We just saw he probably is going to lose ground in the washington absentees. Well see about greene. This 579 may be the baseline for whats left for lamb, it may go up. That becomes key. The question of whether it goes up or not because what this means right now with those votes left, lamb is sitting at 49. 9. Saccone is sitting at 49. 6, a difference of 0. 3 of a point. Does this law apply to congressional districts or not . Under 0. 5 is an automatic recount. That looks like maybe an outstanding question that emerges. But again, it looks like lamb is going to end this thing in terms of the election day vote, in terms of the absentee vote, in terms of everything we could possibly add up and tell you about, it is looking like hes going to end up on the plus side in this thing and then it just becomes a question of is there some kind of recount. Steve kornacki, im hoping for your sake you can go into some kind of a standby or preheat mode and when we get new numbers, just wave at us again. Well go to kasie hunt and after kasie, Ashley Parker. So kasie, youre on. What do you have to report . Reporter well, brian, the crowd here is slowly dwindling, still waiting for conor lamb to come up on the stage. One of his supporters said he wanted to thank them, wasnt ready to do one thing or another and asked them to stay put. We have not yet heard from conor lamb. That has not stopped the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from already declaring victory and calling tonights results terrifying for republicans. The nrcc, the republican and, has essentially said the opposite. They are digging in, looking to count every legal vote, as they put it. So we havent seen an official statement from conor lambs campaign declaring victory or anything like that. Like i said, were still waiting for him to talk. Again, brian, as we were talking about before, this is clearly something that shows democrats are in a much different position going into the midterm elections than they were obviously in 2016. And that Enthusiasm Gap i think Steve Kornacki might be able to make it up for it all by himself if we just bottled his enthusiasm. It might explain the gap in pennsylvania. Were seeing it in realtime, we saw it in the yard signs anecdotally. A big chunk of this is suburban. Health insurance whe thats where a lot of these races will be won and lost. As much as republicans are going to try to spin this as closer than they told us, they thought it was going to be at 6 00 tonight, this is not great news for them at the end of the day. Kasie hunt, a veteran reporter who knows that yard signs are as measurable as any other indicator in a campaign. A lot of us saw the trump yard signs overwhelming the hillary yard signs that ultimately went that way. Ashley parker started with an exclusive story that the secretary of state was on his way out. We just passed the yard arm into day 14. You wake up earlier than any of us, youre more than generous with your time. I just have one more note about the tillerson departure. Ive heard some people comment on this that in their fraught relationship, Rex Tillerson, captain of industry, at the end of the day Rex Tillerson was a very proud eagle scout, and he is a very proud member of the board of boy scouts of america. If youve had eagle scouts in your life, you know how proud a subset they are of the american population. Of all the taking of offense they had back and forth, he was deeply offended by the president S Performance at the boy scouts jamboree. They presented him with a medal that touched him very deeply. Yes, were talking about president of the United States and secretary of state, as i keep saying a job occupied by jefferson and madison among others, but it kind of went south from there. It certainly did. On the one hand obviously what happened with the president at the boy scouts jamboree is not why rex till aerson was forced t today but it added insult to injury the president showed up and was invited in West Virginia and basically held a campaignstyle rally and brought politics to the boy scouts, which is just something you dont do. So tillerson was offended by that. But i do have to say this relationship began fracturing almost from the very first day. The president chose him because he was impressed with the texan swagger, felt like he was out of central casting, the broad shoulders, the silver hair but he didnt like that swagger and confidence and that Rex Tillerson entered that job according to the president too establishment in his thinking. Rex tillerson would be arrogant and condescending in meetings. You guys reported he called the president a moron at one point. There was a long list of things that finally led up to today when the president sort of unceremoniously fired him. It stunned washington but on the whole it wasnt necessarily unexpected. Ashley parker, terrific friend of our broadcast. Thank you so much for a day of your reporting thats become a night of your reporting as well. Ashley, in this exclusive story we should tell our audience was one half of a writing team of Ashley Parker and phillip rucker. Phillip is remaining for us to take a question before we let him go pursue his life and get ready for a full day. Ive heard you ask various strands of this today, what does this episode firing a senior official by twitter say about donald trump . Well, it says a couple of things. Donald trump is someone who became famous in sort of pop culture for saying youre fired, for firing people on reality television, but he doesnt seem to have what it takes to do that in person as president. Weve seen it time and again where hes fired people unsay unceremoniously. He sent that letter to jim comey. Reince priebus was donald trumped on the tarmac in the rain. Weve seen this play out in a pretty horrible way for Rex Tillerson. Ti tillerson was asleep in his hotel room in nairobi with a stomach bug. He was there to clean up a mess that the president had created with his comments, calling african countries shole countries. So ki so tillerson is there doing his cleanup and heard that the president was mad and we were hearing all sorts of rumors at the white house that the president was about to make a move on tillerson. Tillerson just seems to be the one who didnt know. As we always tell to our viewers, dont tell everyone that our broadcast every night is tubactually about print journalism and the people producing sastounding print journalism every day. Thank you, friend. Steve kornacki, i guess were going to live in a splitscreen world, steve. Were on every night from 11 to 12, unless we have a barn burner in pennsylvania and then we have a twohour shift. Do you have anything in terms of updated numbers . I have a number but not a new one. Washington greene basis on your interview with that county clerk, she said three hours, they were just opening. Thats probably after 2 a. M. Theyre going to count these in washington. Saccone to catch lamb in the election day almost has to get every single one of those. One of the keys to keep in mind why lamb is leading right now and in such a strong position, we know he did really well in allegheny county, the pittsburgh suburbs, the other thing is the turnout level. It looks like about 45 of all votes that were cast in this district today came out of allegheny. Thats higher than in the 2016 election. In the 2016 election, we were talking a lot about surge turnout in areas like this, these outlying rural areas where trump did so well. What were seeing here is more than a surge in the special election in the suburbs. When you look at the margin that close, the difference of 45 coming out of allegheny and 23, thats a big difference. Sorry, steve. I had someone talking to me. I thought you paused to get numbers. No. Ill level with you, im happy to talk as much as we can. I dont think were getting new numbers until based on your interview with the county clerk, which is the best information out there right now in the world on this, she estimated three hours. She said shes going in to count with her team, its going to be three hours. Thats 1,200 absentee ballots in washington. Washington is probably the last piece of a numerical information were going to get. Maybe theyre super fast down there but if shes true to what she told you, i think about 2 a. M. Were getting numbers out of there. It would take something beyond a miracle for saccone to catch lamb in those numbers. We dont blame anyone in gre Greene County for turning in early. Theyve had a day of offandon snow. We have a lot of vamping to do to get to 2 a. M. Listen, john heilemann, while i have you, the subject of russia, a friend of mine when this race tightened tonight half in jest got in touch and said are the russians in southwestern pennsylvania . I no what he was saying half in jest. Its the kind of thing that can decrease your confidence in our elections and your crademocracy the role russia has suddenly played in american life. The president has had a kind of obvious carveout. Hes bent over backwards not to lay blame at putin and the russians. How big a factor was russian in the disconnect and his now former secretary of state . Theres no doubt that tillerson is not that outspoken, particularly outspoken on russia. Hes someone who we thought when he first came in because of his relationship with putin was someone that trump was picking partly because he would reinforce trumps desire to have a friendlier, softer relationship with russia because tillerson was great friends with putin and putin had given him medals and all that stuff. At the end of the trip when putin weighed in on the question of whats going on in britain right now, it seemed either like he knew he was on his way out the door and suddenly felt free to speak his mind on russia or potentially was the last nail in the coffin where trump had already decided he was going to let him go and when he heard that that may have to do with all the clarity tillerson spoke with. I want to say about tillerson, trump treated him terribly. Immediately when someone hats been fired, you want to feel sympathy for them, especially at the hands of donald trump and in this reality way. You have the big four, theyre big jobs. The reality is theres a lot of consistencies in them. Theres no doubt that he lost a job because he didnt manage a consistency. The other reality is that Rex Tillerson really did not have a constituency anywhere that was on his side. People at the state department thought he was a terrible manager. He was gutting the state department, reducing 30 . Didnt seem to have any respect for career diplomats there. He had no constituency within the building. He didnt have constituency on capitol hill. He didnt have a constituency in the press for the longest time. Our friend Andrea Mitchell will stand there and get him to answer questions. And he would ignore her. He wouldnt take the press initially on his trips around the world, something that the secretaries of state would always do. There was no one on his side. He seemed to think he could arrive in washington and that he didnt have to do any of the things that every cabinet secretary but especially if you run one of those big four agencies, youve got to cultivate hopefully all of those constituencies but if not all of them, some of them. And he had none of them. I feel sympathy for the guy for how he was treated by tdonald trump but i have to say he brought a lot of the failure on himself. If we could dial up the graphics that Andrea Mitchell prepared for tonight about the state department that Rex Tillerson leaves behind. People are scurrying. Are these the numbers . It a hollowed out husk of a building. Key ambassadors not appointed, 38 of them. Assistant secretary vacancies, 16. And undersecretary vacancies and sooner or later youre talking about the Leadership Structure of the u. S. Department of state, 6. That is saying a lot. Yes. He did not he seemed look, all of these departments in washington could use some restructuring and use some rationalization and many of them probably could do with being a little smaller, but this is a place in which theres so much of a repository of knowledge about the world, this complicated world in which we live and this guy who obviously does know a lot about the world Rex Tillerson exxon is like a nation state. This is someone who knew a lot about the world, economic and strategics level. It made it all the stranger he seemed to have so little regard for the career public servant, civil servants, who had been in the job for so long. He seemed to come in and say i dont need up here, i dont care about your service, i dont care what you know, it not relevant to what im doing. It foolish and selfdefeating. It part of the reason why he no longer has his job, in addition to all the problems with donald trump. Remember, he called him a moron and didnt do what everybody else around trump does when they get on his bad side, which is they go out and lie for them. He refoouts to go out and say, oh, i never said that. People were still saying did you say that thing about trump, did you call him a moron . He refused to say no, i didnt and he refused to say yes, i did. When you spend any time in washington, there are four word, Career Foreign Service officer. Rex tillerson did not venerate that title as much as many prior secretaries of state. We are following a race that is so far too close to call. You know whats awesome . Gigspeed internet. You know whats not awesome . When only certain people can get it. Lets fix that. Lets give this guy gig really . And these kids, and these guys, him, ah. Oh hello. That lady, these houses yes, yes and yes. And dont forget about them. Uh huh, sure. Still yes xfinity delivers gig speed to more homes than anyone. Now you can get it, too. Welcome to the party. We are back. Heres a quick look at a glance of the breaking news were covering. Here it is, 12 23 a. M. East coast time when we are airing this for the first time. Difference of 579 separates these two men in a race that its fairly clear is going to come down to a kind of count, recount and absentee ballots. Well have an update on this in just a second. Because of the nature of this day and tonight, we are balancing competing news stories and competing interests. And for that we are happy to be joined by telephone by john brennan, former director of the cia and newly minted msnbc Senior National security and intelligence analyst. Director brennan, youll very curious to get your take on the personnel moves today that followed the word that Rex Tillerson would be leaving as secretary of state. Well take first things first and that is there. Pompeo leaves your old agency and goes to state. It is said that he made an impression on donald trump by being his daily braeiefer. I know it is a role you served in for bill clinton in 94 and 95. So your opinion of mr. Pompeo as he goes over to state from cia. Well, i think hes demonstrated over the last 14 months hes a very loyal and strong supporter of donald trump and someone who has been able to establish good rapport with him, which is a real positive when it comes to having a secretary of state who is aligned with a president. So i think donald trump saw in mike pompeo someone who obviously is very smart. He also have very partisan but i think above all mr. Trump values loyalty and i think mike pompeo has demonstrated that. Whats he going to be like toward the russians . Thats a good question. I think when pressed he has had to say that he certainly supports the cia assessment about russian interference in the 2016 president ial election, and he has met with his russian counterparts. I hope hes going to take a very firm and hard line with the russians. I think russian activities continue around the globe. I see recent indications of the u. K. , the russian reports of the poisoning of the individual and the daughter. I think its currently important for the secretary of state if he is confirmed to hold a hard line and also make sure that donald trump understands just how dangerous the russians can be and the need to demonstrate strength and resolve toward them. Of course this move creates a vacancy at your beloved former headquarters in langley, virginia. Pore th for that the president has put for the name of gina haspel, not without controversy herself. Because of her involvement, there are degrees of her involvement people argue in torture at black sites aft after 9 11. I heard a longtime colleague of hers say on television today lets not judge her for actions in 02 based solely on 2018 standards. By this he meant we were all some form of crazy back then. We were all mourning, we were all shaken and we had kind of given our proxy to a whole lot of people at the top of our government to do what it was required to keep us safe, and a whole lot of democrats and a whole lot of republicans had given the president and his administration a lot of leeway. So having set that up for our audience, your view professionally of gina haspel who is the nominee to take over as head of cia. First of alls are gina is an exceptionally well respected individual, and shes very competent. I think she has the experience and breadth and depth dealing with these Foreign Policy issues, that shell be able to provide the unvarnished, apolitical intelligence and input to donald trump and others. Yes, the cia was involved in a very controversial program, the Detention Interrogation Program but that was directed and authorized by president bush and deemed lawful by the department of justice. And cia officers, including gina haspel at the time, carried out those responsibilities to the best of their ability. There were some cia officers that were held to account for excessive excesses during that time, but gina by all of my recollection was not involved in anything that was not authorized, albeit controversial. So i do think her role in that program will be subject to scrutiny by the Senate Intelligence committee and rightly so, but i am confident that ginas going to be able to provide them a full and honest accounting of her role and her actions during that time. And last question, the part of her role that smacks of skull duggery, especially if you listen to some of the democrats who intend to oppose it is her alleged role of destruction of Video Evidence of acts of torture. Can you speak to that allegation . Well, there are reports that have been generated in the press. I cant get into anything confidential but she served as the chief of staff for an individual who authorized that destruction. So she was in the agency at that time, again involved in this program and again, i think that she will need to explain to the Senate Intelligence committee personally and directly what happened at the time both in terms of the program itself, her role as well as the destruction of the videotapes. Director brennan, were awfully happy to have you of counsel around here and thank you for making time to join us by telephone on this busy night. Appreciate it. Former cia director john brennan, who becoming of counsel to us joins the likes of mike mcfall and retired four start army general barry mccaffrey, decorated combat veteran from the vietnam warm, former battlefield commander from the p persian gulf who have now an msnbc analyst. Gentlemen, where do you think todays personnel moves leave us or set us up visavis russia . Well, visavis russia im not ready to say yet because youve had a real gap between what the president says and believes about the russia policy and the rest of the administration. And theres nothing that ive heard from mr. Pompeo that makes me believe hes different from where mattis or h. R. Mcmaster are. The problem has been the president doesnt support this administrations policy toward russia. This change at secretary of state will not change that basic fact. Barry mccaffrey, the secretary of state designate spent a little bit of time in your beloved u. S. Army, first in his class west point, not an easy undertaking. Goes on to harvard law, serves to the rank of captain in the army. Comes into the house as part of the Tea Party Wave and the rest has become kind of contemporary history. Where do you put his chances at the state department with special concentration on his potential dealings with the russians . I think the ambassador really put it in the correct context. The problem will be the president of the United States who for some reason has ignored a corrupt demagogue who threatens his neighbors, has eliminated democratic opposition inside the country and who is causing enorm outs problems to u. S. National interests in the middle east and the ukraine and elsewhere. Thats the issue. Now look, mike pompeo is a very capable person. I dont think theres any hell have no illusion about what the russians are up to. The question will become to whawhat extent can he educate, can he shape the dialogue going forward. And i think hell do better than secretary tillerson, who i think is a very fine man but for some reason not clear to me with his background, he still was a disaster as secretary of state. So i think this is good news, as is the nominee to replace him in the cia. Shes a professional, this is good news for American National security. General, what does it say to the wider world that our guy at the head of the state department wakes up in africa, flies home, is fired by twitter and that this is how we change the cabinet room chairs . Well, look, you know, theres a body of people in the government at the highest levels that actually trust each other, theyve known each other for years, theyre experts at their business. The interagency process actually works quite well, and part of it is because the cabinet officials are women and men of dignity and integrity. Boy, thats getting ruined. We got islands of competence still in the government but this is no way to shape a team. The president has stepped forward with unilateral push to become the chief diplomat in almost every manner. So watch what happens dealing with the north koreans. I mean, at the end of the day, north korea is not going to denukize, theyre not going to improve human rights so what is it that President Trump will give them sarting in may that may not be favorable for u. S. National interests . Ambassador, perhaps you heard me use the facts and figures that Andrea Mitchell had compiled for us just tonight about the hall owing out of the state department. Perhaps you heard me refer to the new prejorative in washington. Since you use to be one, do you think pompeo will find the new 30 like an estate sale or is there something in him thats going to to restore the institutional luster . Hard question, brian. I hope were not just worried about cutting the budget by 30 . Secretary killtillerson did not over any of those Foreign Service officers. But heres the problem hes going to face. On the one hand he has a much closer relationship to the president. From what weve been hearing today on policy issues, theyre closer together on issues like iran and like north korea. But that may put him at odds with the korea Foreign Service people. You might have a secretary of state closer on policy but doesnt win offer the rest of the building. His first job, though, is just putting together a team in place. Let talk about korea. We do not have an ambassador in south korea. The assistant secretary and undersecretary for arms control, usually involved in negotiations about nuclear weapons, those are all unfiltd positions. If hes a real leader there, the first thing he want to do is put a team on the field. Diplomacy should be a team sport. Thats the first thing he should do. Gentlemen, i cant thank you enough. It late at night when our attention has been pulled in several different directions. Thank you both very much. Over to the big board, Steve Kornacki, weve been watching you while we been having our conversation. Youve been consulting with your team and looking at your giant laptop. What do you have . We have some more numbers for you just to further clarify the situation again. Conor lamb leads by 579 votes districtwide right now. Weve been talking about this idea that the absentee ballots end up favoring democrats even in these red areas. We have a little more information on that pep we said a while ago, everything came in in, in the election day vote, saccone won by 15 points. They they counted up the absentee ballots and saccone won it by 4 point. In this big republican county, he only beat lamb by 4 points in those 1,800 or so absentee fwhaults were counted. Thats why he didnt make any dent in that lead. And its still speculation, but history says that will happen, what weve seep tonight will say this will happen. And again tonight saccone is running 53 in the election day vote in washington. Thats the lebs day. If this same thing happens, thats an 11point difference. If at that happened, saccone will be sitting down there at 42 in the absentee ballot. He could lose significant ground to lamb. Down here in green theres only 200 we wont know until tomorrow. This is all building of is there going to be a roo count . We think a cant can request one if he says for it. I think that might be an issue. But right now the gap between these candidates sits at 0. 26. This law is very nebulous, it sit at 0. 26. That would set up remaining absentees and maybe a scattering of provisions, show you whats left. Lambs got to basically get twothirds of whats left if he wants to push that. 26 over that 0. 5. Thats just getting to the question if theres a recount. If theres a recount at this margin, you see it. This is not a fourvote race here. Were talking about its close but its also sun hundrhundreds separating them. We lover over the door of National Archives it says whats past is pro log, except in national politics. Steve go back to your numbers and your giant laptop. Lets go to veteran journalist at conor lambs headquarters. Jonathan allen was a former White House Bureau chief for politico and coauthored of the book shattered which is all about the inside of the Hillary Clinton campaign. Jonathan, youre good at talking to people on the ground and getting a feel for a story but with these few votes separating these two guys, i think we need abicus, computer and weather vane. Thank goodness we have Steve Kornacki. John mertha ran for congress in a republican district and won by 22 votes and went on to serve about 35 years after that. Theres precedent for what were seeing here. Jonathan, are we going to hear from the candidate . Weve heard back and forth over the past hour hes going to come down and do what saccone did and basically excuse everybody for the night and say it going to be a long one, maybe well see you tomorrow . Reporter were expecting to hear from conor lamb pretty soon here. Chants of conor keep coming up. I saw Something Interesting tonight. Every time Rick Santorum came on television, hes an analyst these days for cnn, the crowd would boo. Have they kept that policy up all evening . Reporter they have. Rick santorum, former pennsylvania senator from this part of the state, or at least his base was out here and the folks at this conor lamb party do not like him at all. Wow. Two things you can predict about those in the room, they love their steelers, they dont love santorum. Thank you very much. Phil elliott, also standing by for us, politics correspondent for time magazine. Phil, thank up for your patience. Ive been wanting to get to you like a dream sequence. What do you make of what were seeing unfold in electoral politics tonight . Talking to my sources on capitol hill, republicans are very scared tonight. This should have been a slam dunk. This should not have been a close race. This is an rplus 11 district. Theyve been doing the math on the back of their bar tabs in many cases. There are between 110 and 120 districts that are less safe for republican incumbents than in district in that corner of pennsylvania. If youre paul ryan in an rplus 4 district, youre freaking out a little bit here that perhaps the resistance is as strong as has been rumored and perhaps no republican in this country is safe, even in trump country. Phillip, as soon as i brought you out, i have to interrupt you to bring mr. Lamb up to the microphones where he will, as expected, give not a victory nor a concession but a speech thats a nice way of saying thank you, go home and rest and stand by. Lets listen in. Well, it took a little longer than we thought but we did it. [ cheers and applause ] you did it you did it you did it i see so many i see so many great friends out here. You know, four months ago right after we won the democratic nomination, before we ever even had a chance to open an office, the grass roots leaders that are in this room tonight came to us and they said print us something. Print anything so we can get out there and start canvassing. They said, get going or were going without you. Well, we went together and i cant thank you enough. [ cheers and applause ] we followed what i learned in the marines, leave no one behind. [ cheers and applause ] we went everywhere, we talked to everyone, we invited everyone in, and we found that there is public support for programs like Social Security and medicare thats nearly universal because these programs are universal. They are americas way of saying we are all in this together. Brief interruption here, its Brian Williams back in new york. Forgive me but he was introduced on stage as congressmanelect and he came out and sad we did it. So we dont blame you if youre confused. No News Organizations have called this race. Wherever they are getting their optimism is where theyre getting their optimism. Were crunching it all, if youve watched any of Steve Kornacki this evening, you know that to be true. Our decision desk is doing the same thing. Even the Associated Press has said they wont have a call tonight. So its up to the Lamb Campaign to use the words they want. We just wanted to let you know as you listen. Ive heard, conor, the job youre running for is the house of represent tipativerepresenta get down there, do the job, do the job. Okay, i will. Mission accepted. People are so tired of the shouting on tv and in our politics. It is its amazing what happens when youre in a room with real people who have real aspirations and real troubles. Theres lots of ideas, theres no angry shouting. Our job in congress is to attack the problems, not each other. [ cheers and applause ] people want to be heard. They want to talk about serious things and honest solutions, not be drowned out by dark money, distorting the truth and telling lies to our children. Im proud that you helped me refuse corporate pac money. [ cheers and applause ]. You helped us raise millions in small contributions. 86,000 donations. Almost all of them small, every within one of them in the open, just like our campaign. We were able to campaign the way american democracy is supposed to be. Its supposed to be for you, not just on tv but in your town halls, at legion posts, in small auditoriums, on your street, at your door. And side by side with us at each step of the way were the men and women of organized labor. [ cheers and applause ] organized labor built western pennsylvania. Let me tell you something, tonight they have reasserted their right to have a major part in our future. These unions have fought for decades for wages, benefits, working conditions, basic dignity and social justice. Thank you. Thank you. You have brought me into your ranks to fight with you. Let me tell you something else. I am proud to be right there with you. Thank you. Let me finish with this. Im a pennsylvania democrat, a proud western pennsylvania democrat. This is the party of my grandfather. He believed in fdr, who taught us all, he taught us all that people have a right to know that their government walks on their side of the street. What that means is ill work on the problems our people face, secure their jobs and pensions, protect their family, and i will work with anyone to do that. Were practical people. Were serious people. And tonight we celebrate regaining our voice and our vote in the great business of governing this country we love. Thank you. [ cheers and applause ] conor lamb. Again, going by his remarks, his opening comment was we did it, by our telling he was talking about achieving a campaign to the finish line. I think the Lamb Campaign is very optimistic about their chances, john heilemann. I think they are. I think the question that Steve Kornacki has been raising is whether or not there will be a recount. Theyre making reasonable projections on the results that are out and saying i dont see any way to make up this ground tonight or early in the morning tomorrow. Theres a question will there be a recount or not but in our history, you got a lot of candidates who claim victory when theyre within the margin that triggers a recount. Even if youve won by six votes, youre going to stand up and claim victory. Theyre a little premature but not unreasonably premature given what our friend mr. Kornacki has been telling us about the numbers. Coming out on the winning end of a bicycle versus pavement encounter, playing hurt for us tonight, juggling more than any man should but hes been following every last vote in this race. Hes going to anchor live the next hour. But for these waning minutes, give me an update on where we stand, steve. By the way, i wish i had a better story than falling off the bike. Or youve joined the professional bowlers tour and you have to wear this thing. So right now heres where we stand. 579, thats the margin districtwide. A couple things are left. Theres one more rinkwrinkle to to this. We got westmoreland in, allegheny is in, thats all done, were waiting on the absentees in washington. Based on what weve seen in w t westmore land a westmoreland, i think lamb gets more than saccone, maybe even significantly more. The idea of saccone eating into that 579 in the biggest chunk of real estate left on the map here, washington, i really dont see it now. Theres only 200 absentee ballots here in greene and based on what were seeing, i dont see saccone getting anything out of greene either. That takes us to one more class of ballots that is still out there and has come into the picture. These are people who showed up at the polls today and they had some kind of an issue. They were challenged on their residen residency, their status as a voters is yet to be determined. They cast whats known as a provisional ballot. We dont have a number on this but we think there are in the low hundreds, a couple hundred maybe of provisional ballots. But provisional ballots tend to be very democratic. So thats a class of ballot thats out there, maybe a couple hundred. So again, if you dont see saccone eating into that 579 here in the absentee, you certainly dont i could be proven wrong but you certainly dont see it based on history in the provisionals and it leaves military ballots sent in. Theres not going to be many of those. In the 2016 president ial election, much higher turnout, in these counties that include pittsburgh, the entire county, a lot of these are not even in the district, they only had 400 military ballots. Special election much lower turnout, only parts of counties. That may only number in the dozens. While military ballots tend to favor republican candidates, there may only be dozens, maybe a couple score of military ballots that are out there and that takes you to the end. You got absentees, hard to see saccone making a dent there, provisions, easy to see lamb climbing, and whatever you pick up in military ballots. Weep could end up in a recount situation. If lamb got a big boost out of provisional, he might be vying to crack that 0. 5 number. Thats kind of where were ending up tonight, brian. A reminder, steve will be taking the next hour of live coverage here. When we continue, so important all of the points youve heard steve make all tonight. Military ballots, for example, were much higher when the pennsylvania elements of the guard was deployed during the heavy war fighting tempo of our two conflicts, seemingly without end. But that has become a moving target and is a differing story now. The story we had when the polls closed this evening, we have not made a call in this race. This News Organization no News Organization has made a call in this race. Way too close to call as youve heard steve say, way too many elements out there and still floating and unresolved. Well bring to a wrap the last two hours of live coverage going to the next hour of live coverage with our National Political editor Steve Kornacki. All right. Good morning everybody on the east coast. Still night on the west coast. Steve kern acy, continuing live coverage of the special election in pennsylvania. Race in soon to be defunct district. Conner lamb and rick sac own. Qualified as too close to call. 97 counted. Each candidate close to the 50 mark. C connor lamb, has the
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