As you can see, there are six states illuminated in red. Theres one state lit up in blue. Indiana. Thats the one and only state so far. We have another state to project. Jimmy carter the winner in florida. That was not a big surprise. He had campaigned down there. So had his running mate. But you see it on our map. Now, the south is beginning to fill in. The blue is for carter. 8 15 Eastern Standard Time on this Election Night we have projected Ronald A Gant winner. And he is the winner in more states. By our calculations he is the winner in the state of new hampshire, in the state of vermont, delaware, and south carolina. We will be coloring in those on the map now in blue neuer reagan or light gray and black and white. New hampshire is the first state we are calling for him in this list of states. The only sherbet for mondale is the district of columbia. We will color that red. Ronald reagan is doing well or the states are leaning his way. So they are colored blue on the map. Do you see that . Sometimes the democrats they got blue. Sometimes the democrats got red back then. They also told you if you have a black and white set, look for the darker color, the lighter color. The red states and the blue states we talk about them all the time. Red for republicans and blue states for the democrats. But for a long, long time. For a long time on Election Night there was no standard. Red did not automatically mean a were republican state and blue did not automatically mean a democratic state. There were broader implications to that too. It was how we talked about america and politics. Think about that. We have the red states and the blue states today. That means something bigger. We talk about red america. We talk about different customs, traditions, different ways of living in red america. And we talk about blue america. They are two very dissent things. They have cultural meaning. But that wasnt the case for a long type. For a long time on Election Night you tuned in and you found out for the first time which party just for that night was going to get which color. There is another reason for this too. A big reason was in the 70s and 80s where a lot of the elections came from were total landslides. 1984, Ronald Reagan won 49 states. So the color scheme didnt matter. So no one was going to worry which ones were red, which ones were blue and what that meant. So the question is, we showed you the 70s and the 80s. When did we Start Talking about the red and blue states the way that we talk about them now . We can thank for that the late great tim russert. He is the one who first talked about red states and blue states the way we do now, and he did it in the 2000 election. Thats tim russert talking a couple days before the 2000 election. Hes the one who started talking about them the way we do now. And that year is key, 2000. Election night in 2000 was the first time in a generation, the First Time Since that carter ford election in 1976, that we actually had a truly close, truly suspenseful, nip and tuck president ial election. It wasnt even settled on Election Night. People trying to figure out who their next president was going to be. All night and into the wee hours of the morning, people were at home, staring at their television screens, trying to figure out what combination of states might possibly put al gore over the top, what combination of states might mean that george w. Bush was going to be the winner. Thats the kind of night it was. The colors that were used that night just so happened to be blue for gore and red for bush. Red for the republicans. So with tim russert leading the way, people at home, all across the country started talking about the red states as a thing, and the blue states as a thing. The red for the republicans, the blue for the democrats. Election night 2000, people started talking that way, tens of millions all watching their televisions at the same time, and it just kinda stuck. Something else stuck after the 2000 election too. The polarization of that election, the polarization of what was a near perfect time. It was the Supreme Court that had to step in and settle the 2000 election, thats how close it was. But before 2000, we had a lot of landslide elections in this country. Election nights that were over before they started. Think of Ronald Reagan, those 49 states in 1984. Nixon in 49 states in 72. Bush sr, 40 states in 1988. But since 2000, since that Election Night in 2000, president ial elections in this country have been a lot more competitive. And the reason for that is now there are a large number of reliably red state, a large number of reliably blue state. Were a very polarized country now, along partisan lines in a way we werent before. Even a losing candidate in president ial elections these days, generally wins at least 20 states, gets at least 45 of the vote. You dont have candidates losing 49state landslides anymore. Thats something thats changed since 2000. The other thing that defines this new political era ooh, i just gave it away. The other thing that defines it, though, polling. It was around 2000. Since then weve had an explosion in polling. More outlets are conducting more polls, more frequently than ever before. We are swimming at any given moment in data. Numbers about who is winning, who is losing and why theyre winning or why theyre losing. This week, you may have seen this headline floating around the internet. It says that since 1952, no candidate has ever come back to win a president ial election when behind in the polls like donald trump is now behind. And yeah, theres truth to that obviously. But take that with a grain of salt. Because they barely had any polling for many of those elections. Many of them are also just good, oldfashioned landslides. So of course the winner in the end was also ahead two weeks after the convention. The winner was ahead for the entire election. When you didnt have a country as polarized as it is now. But since 2000, every election has been competitive, and has featured a ton of polls conducted for the entire length of the campaign. And what that means, what that means is that we can compare campaigns with precision nowadays. We can say we can say that right now, as i sit here and as i talk with you, it has been two weeks since the final convention in this 2016 president ial campaign. Its been two weeks since the democrats finished up in philadelphia. The polling bounces have settled down since both of those conventions. We are now fully, officially, totally in the general election. So with all of that in mind, we can ask, thanks to this new political world we live in, we can ask, where does the clinton trump race stand right now, and how does it compare to the ones before . Is it closer, is it more of a blowout . How does it stack up . So lets take a look. In 2000, al gores Democratic Convention went second that year. It was over, he got a big bounce right away. His lead started to dissipate. Then at this exact point in the campaign, two weeks after that Second Convention in 2000, george w. Bush was ahead by literally the smallest possible margin. When you averaged all the polls together. He was ahead by about a tenth of a point in the average of the polls. At this point in 2000. Four years later, 2004, president bush got the Second Convention, got a big bounce out of it. Two weeks after the last convention, bush was up five and a half points when you average the polls together. Fast forward to 2008, after the last convention, two weeks after it, barack obama was ahead of john mccain, his margin was 1. 9 points, an average of 1. 9. Four years later, the last president ial election before this one, in 2012, two weeks after the last convention, that was the Democratic Convention in 2012, president obama was leading mitt romney. The average margin, 3. 1 points. So thats where every race since 2000 has stood at this exact same moment. That was the margin for the leading candidate. And now we can give you a number for right now. The polling has been bad for donald trump in the last two weeks since the Democratic Convention ended. And right now when you average them all together, two weeks after the end of Hillary Clintons convention, her margin over donald trump, she leads by 6. 3 points. Again, thats according to an average of all the national polls. Compare that to all of the others since 2000, since the start of the red state blue state era were talking about, shes doing better than any other nominee in this period in history at this point in the campaign. This is a bigger lead than weve seen for any nominee at that time. Over six points on average, now just two weeks after the final convention. So thats where this race stands. Hillary clinton leading by more than six points on average. Donald trump seems to know hes behind. For someone who bragged a lot during the primaries about his poll numbers. Theres been a noticeable shift in rhetoric from him, we saw it yesterday in florida. You gotta get your people out to vote. And especially in those states where were represented having a tremendous problem in utah. Utahs a different place and i dont know is anybody here from utah . Its i didnt think so. Were having a problem. We need help in ohio. Were very close in ohio. We need help. The fact that youre in florida, many of you are in florida, but if you could send out the word to ohio, pennsylvania, some of these really important swing states, im telling you, we will do it. Because were close. Were very close. So donald trump knows hes been having some trouble. We know the national polls. We just took you through them. Hillary clinton has been getting great news there. Shes ahead by a larger margin than anybody at this point since 2000. But its a battle for 270, a battle for the electoral college. Brandnew numbers out today. Nbc marist polls out tote in out today in four swing states. Hillary clinton ahead by 14 points in colorado. They went for george w. Bush in 2004. It was a coup for democrats to take that in 2008. Hillary clinton now up 14 there. Shes up doubledigits in virginia. Virginia, another state that was long a republican bastion. Its been changing a lot. Look at this, Hillary Clinton, a doubledigit lead. North carolina, a romney state in 2012, but Hillary Clinton up nearly ten points there. And in florida, the always important state of florida, a closer margin, but, again, Hillary Clinton up five points there. So across the board, four key swing states. Hillary clintons ahead. We focus on these three, though. Colorado, virginia, north carolina. Im telling you about the political histories in those states, virginia was a republican state for generations. As we said, colorado of the a bush state. North carolina, a romney state. How could Hillary Clinton be up not just ahead, but ahead by these margins . Lets take a look at the demographics in these states. I think its going to give you an explanation. We talk about this all the time. One of the defining things in this campaign has been a divide among white voters, between those who have College Degrees and those who dont have College Degrees. You see donald trump has been doing well with blue collar, noncollege white voters. Hillary clinton has been doing better than any democrats ever done with College Educated white voters. So take a look. In 2012, 36 of the voters nationwide were whites with College Degrees. In virginia, you see the number was higher. 41 . So those are the kinds of voters Hillary Clintons been doing particularly well with. And Donald Trumps been doing particularly poorly with. There are a lot more of them in virginia than you see nationally. So thats why clinton is doing extra well in virginia. Colorado, again, thats above the national average. A key reason why Hillary Clintons so far ahead. North carolina, a little bit below average. Its close enough that Hillary Clinton gets benefit from that. But theres another reason why Hillary Clinton might be ahead in north carolina. You take that white, collegeeducated vote, you add in the fact that the black population, almost twice the national average, and Hillary Clinton doing overwhelmingly better than donald trump amongst black voters. Hillary clinton doing very well with that group. And in colorado, its the story of the latino vote. 14 in colorado. Thats a growing number out there. 10 nationally. And again, Hillary Clinton cleaning up latino voters. So thats why shes doing so well suddenly in states that just a couple of cycles ago, we thought of as republican states. Heres the bottom line, though, of where this race stands right now. The gray states are battleground. These are states weve been looking at all summer and saying, they could be tossups. Not sure who is going to win. Heres the interesting thing. Donald trump has to do more work here than Hillary Clinton. If we only said, lets color in states if a candidate is leading in the polls by doubledigits. Lets leave Everything Else as a tossup, Everything Else as undecided. Only if a candidate is up doubledigits in one of these battleground states will we color it in. Look at this. Right now, Hillary Clinton is ahead by doubledigits, really solid margins in polls in new hampshire, in wisconsin, in michigan. We just saw it today in virginia. And in colorado. We just showed it to you. And look at that. Only based on states where shes ahead by doubledigits, that puts her over 270. Thats a candidate in very good position right now in the electoral college. Shes not winning squeakers in the swing states, shes blowing trump out in enough swing states, that just with the blowouts, shed be over 270 right now. Thats not even factoring in some of the other states. Donald trump, not only does he have to flip a bunch of these states, hes got to make them competitive. Hes not even competitive in enough states right now. Thats the problem for trump in these polls. Were going to squeeze in a quick break. When we come back, well talk to the man who conducted these polls. Find out where this race stands, find out where this race stands, stay with us. Isaac hou has mastered gravity defying moves to amaze his audience. Great show. Here you go. Now hes added a new routine. Making depositing a check seem so effortless. Easy to use chase technology, for whatever youre trying to master. Isaac, are you ready . Yeah. Chase. So you can. Itsanyone ever haveady occasional constipation, diarrhea, gas or bloating . [ simultaneously ] she does. Help defend against those digestive issues. Take Phillips Colon Health probiotic caps daily with three types of good bacteria. 400 likes . Wow phillips. Be good to your gut. Your Business NeedsBetter Technology to drive better performance. So you need it to be reliable and fast. Really fast. Introducing the comcast business Summer Savings event. Fast Internet Speed to drive performance, plus cutting edge wifi for your employees and customers, and voice mobility so your calls find you wherever you are. Get some of our most advanced products at a great price with over 500 in savings. Call today and ask how to get these savings plus a 250 prepaid card. Comcast business. Built for business. We have to win the state of pennsylvania. I went to school here. My kids went to school here. Were gonna win pennsylvania. If we win pennsylvania, ill tell you what, we are very much on our way. You know, the republicans do have a tougher path. Not my fault. Not my fault, its a tougher path. For the presidency, its just a tougher, winding road. But if we win pennsylvania, we win florida, where were doing really well, i think we can win ohio. It will be over. Donald trump this afternoon in erie, pennsylvania, talking strategy, talking path to 270, laying out what he thinks is his road to the white house. Joining us now, director of the Marist Institute for public opinion. All of the swing state polls we were showing you, hes the guy who took them. No one better to talk to right now than you. Thank you for joining us. Weve made a science out of coinflipping. But these be ins dont look like coinflips right now. They really arent. And we just said this, colorado, virginia, and north carolina, you go back a decade, youre calling them red states. Now its not just the republican in danger of losing, a danger of being blown out of them. Thats a big change. And the demographic factors, the educational difference, the gap between white noncollege and thats an inversion. That used to be the opposite. Republicans were getting the upscale voters. Democrats were getting the blue collar working class. Thats not happening in this election and that bodes well for Hillary Clinton because the people who have higher income, higher education, are also going to be more likely to vote, typically. So what we are going to see, when we go to likely voters and those models and all those polls, thats not going to skew republican like it has in the past. It should stay pretty much like when were seeing right now. So thats going to be very interesting. I saw that donald trump was talking a lot about pennsylvania, because he was there today. Pennsylvanias gone democratic the last six times. And hes trailing there in our poll, which was released mid week by 11 points. Doubledigits. Ive seen a few there with doubledigits. Talk more about that. Because trump has identified pennsylvania and a lot of analysts looking at this race at the outset, looked at pennsylvania, one reason was romney, he didnt win it, but he improved significantly over what happened there in 2008. So people thought republicans were moving maybe in the right direction there. And you think of pennsylvania as a blue collar state and you think maybe trump connects with that, but hes losing more ground than hes gaining. Yeah. Not only the educational divide were talking about the sort of rural versus urban, suburban divide. So when you look at pennsylvania for example, and its showing up elsewhere around the country. You look at philadelphia and the suburbs around philadelphia, those are overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton right now. Same thing with the western part of the state, around pittsburgh, suburbs around pittsburgh. Again, very democratic. Trump is doing the rural thing with that. The problem for trump, theres a lot more voters in the cities and the suburbs around the cities than in the rural parts. So hes having the same problem. Thats why the numbers are all moving in the same direction. Because the universals in terms of what hes getting are not pretty right now. So he can be behind by doubledigits. And a lot of places which you so correctly identified have Different Things going for them, maybe upscale voters and maybe a lot of African American and latino voters, theres Different Things in the states. The bottom line is, trumps not breaking into most of those groups and Hillary Clinton is. So thats the problem. And the the other thing weve mixed into it, barack obama in the four states we talked about today is over 50 or over in each of those four states. Hes popular. So you now have a popular president in these critical, battleground states, about to pass the baton to someone who obviously is identified with his administration, and is running on that as well. Very quickly, when you look at these numbers, do you think theres a floor for donald trump . Because president ial elections have been more competitive than maybe for the generation before. Is donald trump because we live in that polarized era, likely to get 45 or 40 , or is there a lower floor . Hillary clintons ahead, not because people are in love with Hillary Clinton. In fact, her negatives are in the 50s in each of these states. The trouble for trump, his negatives are in the 60s in each of these states. Not to use the old cliche, the lesser of two evils, but you have someone who is very, very popular in donald trump and someone who is not particularly popular in Hillary Clinton. So that goes clintons way in all these states. The best thing clinton has going for her is trump. Although the clinton people are more favorable to clinton, than the trump people are to trump. Clintons people are motivated by their like of her than their dislike of trump. So theres a little difference there, but the bottom line, this is an election that has really no great road maps because weve been surprised every other day. And theres likely to be many more of those down the road before were done in november. Right now, its playing Hillary Clintons way. Well see if it continues. Youll do a lot more polls before then. Thanks for the time. Much more ahead. Well be right back. We got lots more election to come. A big week and all sorts of be ins weve been going through. But its not just numbers. 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Even though the latest polling shows him down by doubledigits in pennsylvania, he had something controversial to say about what Hillary Clinton would have to do to win the state. Listen to what trump said. Were gonna watch pennsylvania very quickly. Were going to watch pennsylvania. Go down to certain areas and watch and study and make sure other people dont come in and vote five times. Because if you do that, and i know youre all voting is everybody here voting . If you do that, if you do that, were not going to lose. The only way we can lose, in my opinion, i really mean this, pennsylvania, is if cheating go goes on. I really believe that. We have to call up law enforcement, and we have to have the sheriffs and the Police Chiefs and everybody watching. Because if we get cheated out of this election, if we get cheated out of a win in pennsylvania, which is such a vital state, especially when i know whats happening here, folks. I know. She cant beat whats happening here. The only way they can beat it, in my opinion, and i mean this 100 , if in certain sections of the state they cheat. Okay . Donald trump saying that cheating is the only way Hillary Clinton could possibly win pennsylvania. Again, the electoral history on pennsylvania, weve been going through this. This is a state that twice voted for bill clinton, 1992, 1996, twice voted for barack obama, a state where al gore won in 2000, where john kerry won in 2004, its a state that last voted for a republican in a president ial race 28 years ago. But donald trump says the only possible way Hillary Clinton could win that state is through cheating. And saying more specifically that certain sections of the state are prone to cheating. More on that ahead. Stay with us. vo maybe it was here, when you hit 300,000 miles. Or here, when you walked away without a scratch. Maybe it was the day you realized your baby was not a baby anymore. Every subaru is built to earn your trust. 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Trunatal is a new line of products designed to address discomforts with nausea relief and regularity support. Add trunatal from one a day for relief and support you can trust. 87 days to go now and counting until the big day, election day. 87 days out. As we showed you at the top of the show, Hillary Clinton 87 days out is in better position than a nominee has been in at this point in a very long time. In the new polls out today, shes widened her lead in some key battleground states. Up by doubledigits in two of them, and they were red not long ago. Shes gained significant ground since before the conventions. Theres no question about that. So things are good for the Clinton Campaign. But how much of this is because of what theyre doing right, as opposed to what donald trump and his campaign are doing wrong . In fact, the Clinton Campaign seems right now their single best weapon to be donald trump himself. Look at this article. Clinton happily yields National Spotlight to trump, avoids its glare. Clinton aides say their strategy is simple. Let trump be trump. Hillary clinton has no problem with him getting embroiled in controversy while she focuses on her campaign. So often the strategy is working for the Clinton Campaign. But as we said, there are still 87 days to go until the election. That means 87 days for things to take a wrong turn, for mistakes to be made. 87 days for donald trump to somehow find his footing, recover, and make a comeback. So what do you do when youre in the Clinton Campaigns position right now . How do you maintain a lead like this for 87 days . How do you keep the good news youve been getting for the last two weeks going for another 87 days . How do you guard against complacency . Its been a while since a campaign has been in this position, leading by this much, so close to the election. What do they do for the next 87 days . Joining us now is bob shrum, professor at politics at usc. Thank you for joining us. Let me start with the sports analogy. If football, if youre ahead trying to run the clock out, you go to the prevent defense. In basketball, you might have the four corners offense. Is that a thing in politics . Is that something a campaign does when its ahead . Well, theres an old adage, dont get in the way of a train wreck. And that applies in politics. And i think whats happening to trump is a train wreck. Its a selfinduced train wreck. Its been going on since the end of the Democratic Convention, even before that. Trump has turned this campaign into a referendum on his temperament and his competence and his fitness to be president. And thats why i think youre seeing these leads. If youre the Clinton Campaign, i think theyre being very smart. They had a brilliant convention. Theyre being very smart right now. Theyre going to the states theyre targeting, theyre doing interviews with local newscasters, local television stations. That is reaching people in those areas. Theyre not trying to compete with trump in the National News at this point, because truthfully, hes proving that not all news is good news. The story ahead just before we came to this segment, what he said in pennsylvania tonight. You can rely on him, once he gets off the script. They try to make him read, that hes going to get off the script and Say Something incendiary. Thats what he did tonight. Earlier, he said i was being sarcastic when i said the president was the founder of isis. Truth is, not so sarcastic. He cant control himself. Thats why im skeptical he can turn it around within 87 days. So if donald trump keeps doing what weve been seeing straight to the finish line, what is the biggest risk, exposure for the Clinton Campaign, given the position theyre in and the candidate theyre running against . Well, its an unpredicted event, an extraordinary outside event that has a big impact. Everything thought earlier in the summer if there were terrorist attacks, that would help trump. In fact, his reaction to them made certain that it didnt help him. He reacted so badly, by saying, for example, i was right, congratulate me, i was right. That kind of stuff, he doesnt handle well. But some event of major proportion would have an impact on this. Other than that, i dont see whats going to change the trajectory of the race. The debates . Trump is fooling around on whether hes going to show up. Hes not getting sean hannity as the moderator, no matter how much he might want that. I dont know if this guy can prepare in a serious way where substantive knowledge will matter and where questioners will hold him to account. I dont know that he can do that. He has to have that debate. Only in that debate now could he pass the threshold of acceptability as president and commander in chief. Bob shrum, veteran of many democratic campaigns nationally, thank you for joining us. Thank you. 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Thats right, i just changed a word in the english dictionary, forever. Planters. Nutrition starts with nut. Isaac hou has mastered gravity defying moves to amaze his audience. Great show. Here you go. Now hes added a new routine. Making depositing a check seem so effortless. Easy to use chase technology, for whatever youre trying to master. Isaac, are you ready . Yeah. Chase. So you can. All right, needless to say, the last 48 hours have not been great for donald trump. Headlines about a meltdown after another round of bad poll numbers. Now controversy over his insistence that president obama should be considered the founder of isis. Theres more. There was an open letter from dozens of republicans urging the Republican National committee to cut off its funding of the Trump Campaign. Last night, reports that members of Trump Campaign staff had asked for emergency meeting with rnc officials which was described as a come to jesus session, designed to get both the campaign and the National Party on the same page. Now the rnc has denied this was anything more than a typical meeting. Tensions within the Republican Party were on full public display today. Theres an open letter penned by some 70 republicans, suggesting that Reince Priebus pull back funding, maybe data from your campaign. Have you talked to reince . Are you in contact with reince, the rnc, any truth to any of this . Sure, well, theres no truth. But im the one thats funding, raising the money. And other people are getting to use the money ive raised. Have you been in contact . Yes, he just put out a press release, saying its untrue. If it is true, thats okay too. Because all ill have to do is stop funding the Republican Party. Right now im in orlando, going to a fundraiser for the Republican Party. So if they want to do that, they can save me a lot of time and energy. So that was donald trump last night saying that if the rnc wanted to take away Campaign Resources from him, then he could just stop raising money for them in return. So with all of that swirling in the background, when trump held a rally today in erie pennsylvania, he came with a surprise guest. Take a look at this. Reince priebus, the chair of the Republican Party. Dont believe the garbage you read. Let me tell you something, donald trump, the Republican Party, all of you, were going to put him in the white house and save this country together. Now, its hard to see priebuss sudden appearance on the campaign trail as a coincidence. In fact, it was just a week ago when trump held a rally in wisconsin, priebuss hometown, but he was nowhere to be seen, along with a number of other top wisconsin republicans. That came just after trump had refused to endorse paul ryans Reelection Campaign in wisconsin. Nbcs katy tur reporting that reinces surprise appearance today is an effort to make sure trump doesnt travel alone. He and other officials are taking turns trumpsitting. Thats a role were not used to seeing a National Party chair play. But a role that maybe in the Trump Campaign, may be the new Trump Campaign, may be the new normal. Add one a day womens gummies. Complete with key nutrients we may need. Plus it supports bone health with calcium and vitamin d. One a day vitacraves gummies. Your Business NeedsBetter Technology to drive better performance. So you need it to be reliable and fast. Really fast. Introducing the comcast business Summer Savings event. Fast Internet Speed to drive performance, plus cutting edge wifi for your employees and customers, and voice mobility so your calls find you wherever you are. Get some of our most advanced products at a great price with over 500 in savings. Call today and ask how to get these savings plus a 250 prepaid card. Comcast business. Built for business. Reince, come here for a second, please. The head of the Republican National committee has done such a great job. Were friends, we work together. We work with a lot of other people. And i have to say, we have great unification. Now every once in a while you read about somebody that wants to be a rebel, they get a little free publicity for themselves, but the way weve gotten along and ive raised ive put in a lot of money into the Republican National committee. That was just a couple of hours ago in altoona, pennsylvania. Donald trump bringing up Reince Priebus to the stage with him, singing his praises. Interesting relationship there to dissect. Joining us, robert costa with the washington post. Thanks for stopping by. That relationship, the trumppriebus relationship, a lot of people are fascinated by it and they dont know what to make of it. What is it . Its a pivotal relationship in the Republican Party. Priebus has positioned himself as a confidant of trump, something to go to new york with trump, be a trump whisperer of sorts, because many people on capitol hill, they dont have a relationship with trump. Is your sense that trump listens to him and follows his advice, or is he just giving advice and trump disregards . Trump doesnt have a traditional organization. Hes relying on the rnc to help out, leaning on them, so its a relationship of necessity in some ways for donald trump. I dont think theyre personally close in a very warm, daily conversation way. But its a relationship thats political, and he sees priebus as the party, and thats his way of talking to the party. And how about we have all the stories this week about there was a move by some antitrump republicans. We should say, looks like they were the never trump people, been around for a long time. Their latest grab of the headlines, but saying cut off the funding to the Trump Campaign, to the rnc. Youre mentioning that trump relies on the rnc. Whats the relationship between those two entities, the Trump Campaign and the rnc, whats that like . Its an important one, because trump doesnt have an institutional relationship with the Republican Party. So hes come into this election, hes waded into gop world, and hes grabbed onto the rnc to communicate from his world. And because the Trump Campaign doesnt have the sprawling organization, its the capitol hill folks who are different. Theyre not intertwined with trump in the same way the rnc is. So house members are saying, we should start to distance ourselves a bit. We mentioned donald trump talking about altoona, in pennsylvania, a state that hes targeting. A its a blue collar, white population there. But you got the philly suburbs, with white collar professionals, theyre fleeing him route now. Hes down in the polls and hes saying, the only way i can lose this state is by cheating. Whats your sense where is that coming from . Well, its not coming from evidence. Evidence of voter fraud is quite limited across the country. It comes from a gut instinct, a belief by trump. His longtime confidant has talked about voter fraud and the system being rigged. Alex jones, they talk about this type of things and this gets trumps attention and he talks about it in public. When you talk about Reince Priebus having access to him, is that something hes in his ear saying, lets not go down this road . My reporting doesnt reveal priebus saying something specific about voter fraud. My report tells me its limited. When it comes to strategy, he relies on himself. Thanks for the time. One last trip to the big board, im going to take the jacket off and head over there. Thats next. Thats next. Marco. polo marco. polo marco. si . Polo marco. polo scusa . Ma io sono marco polo, ma. Marco. playing marco polo with marco polo . Surprising. Ragazzini, io sono marco polo. Si, sono qui. Whats not surprising . 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Weve got all sorts of new numbers this week on the state of president ial race and across the boards these were numbers that were good for Hillary Clinton and bad for donald trump in the republicans. We talked about this on the show tonight. Hillary clinton enjoying a bigger lead at this point in the race at any nominee weve seen since the year 2000. If youre a republican, obviously, youre hoping donald trump bounces back, but thats a different thats a different subject. If youre a protrump republican youre hoping he bounces back. But the other thing youre worrying about right now is not just the president ial race. Youre worrying about something very important to the Republican Party, something that the Republican Party got two years ago and is in danger of losing if donald trump loses this november. What am i talking about, you can probably guess its control of the u. S. Senate, think of how much money, how much effort went in to the republicans capturing the senate, this 54 46 majority they have in 2014. Democrats this year, if they can pick off five seats they get five republican seats they have the senate majority. Or if they get four and Hillary Clinton gets elected president , they would also have the majority, the president s party gets to break the tie. They probably need to get four if Hillary Clinton wins. Lets take a look at what the lay of the land is in terms of senate battleground. This is what gets democrats excited the red states are republican held seats that are potentially vulnerable this november. Youll have republicans or their seats that are currently held by republicans where democrats have a plausible chance of winning. The blue, those are democratic seats where republicans have a plausible chance of winning. You can see, there are 11 vulnerable ret seats, only two vulnerable two seats. It was a great year for republicans, it means theyre playing defense. It means theres a lot of opportunity for democrats. Democrats put those two things together. They say Hillary Clinton is beating donald trump and weve got all these pick up opportunities on this map. That can be a wave that gives democrats control of the u. S. Senate. Thats what democrats are saying right; is that what the evidence is saying in terms of polling. Its telling us a couple of things. There are some states that its bearing out right now. Pennsylvania Hillary Clinton is way ahead in pennsylvania, the Democratic Senate candidate a challenger against the incumbent republican, its a smaller margin but it is a lead, so right there democrats getting what theyre hoping for, same thing in wisconsin, remember this guy, former senator trying to make a come back, double digit lead right now in a state where Hillary Clinton also has a double digit lead, those two things might be synced up. Not coincidentally the democratic challenger, the senate governor, shes up double digits in that race. Thats what democrats are hoping for. Theyre hoping to see states where Hillary Clinton wins are won by democrats on the senate side. Its not happening everywhere, take a look at ohio, our poll this week has hillary ahead by five points in ohio. Five points is also the margin in that same poll for the republican incumbent. The senator out there leading his challenger by five points. Portman, hes defying the Hillary Clinton trend in that state. Thats the thing republicans want to see. Theyre saying we need our Senate Candidates to stand on our own, partmon again, hes ten points up in our poll this week, president ial race has Hillary Clinton ahead in the state, chuck would be defying the trend in iowa. In florida, again, we showed you Hillary Clinton leading in florida, the margin is not that big. But shes leading. Marco rubio, hes ahead by a couple of points, republicans thats their best hope if donald trump loses, can their incumbent senator stand on their own and resist the democratic tide sweeping them out of office. This is from our political desk, its a great fact, since these are races that are so great, i stumble over my words senate races one month before an election, 80 of them end up going to the party that wins the state in the president ial election. Thats what democrats are ultimately hoping for. If Hillary Clinton wins most of these states painted red right now, history says most of them will also end up picking the democrat. Republicans are saying, maybe its people are voting against trump, thats what republicans are worried about, well wave. Thats going to do it for us tonight. Rachel will be back monday. Good morning. Im dara brown in new york at msnbc world headquarters. Victory, bitter defeat and history. A golden day for some americans at the olympics. And the ending of a remarkable streak for others. A live report on the drama up next. In politics, staying on message. A new report about how some in the donald trump camp are work to go keep the candidate from straying. The only way we can lose, in my opinion, i really mean this, pennsylvania, if cheating goes on. And the claim from the gop nominee about the keystone state. Well examine that. Plus, new polls. A definite