Democrat. The professor has studied how the impeachment issue affects voters, and she has much to say about the Strong Campaign democrat dan mccready ran in a North Carolina congressional drik district where he came in second tuesday night, just two points behind the republican winner. Rachel will explain why she thinks that race was actually winnable for dhemocrats. Shell tell us what she believes the democrat could have done differently in that race and that democrats could make a difference in other races in dozens of other congressional races by approaching them differently. She will join us later in this hour. Also ahead tonight, the new political viral video star deb butler. You shall not do this to you shall not do this to democracy in North Carolina, mr. Speaker how dare you do this, mr. Speaker . I will not yield. Were not going to let anybody touch you. I will not yield, mr. Speaker. I will not yield. You shall not usurp the process, mr. Speaker deb butler was seen as a hero in North Carolina and much of the country today after fighting back against republican dirty tricks in the state house yesterday. She joined us here last night at the last word and we will show you what deb butler had to say today. She has a new demand for the republican speaker of the house in North Carolina. But we begin tonight with the trump escape hatch. Trump team rushes to find escape hatch for china tariffs. Thats the headline on a new article in politico which says, quote president Donald Trumps top advisers are rushing to find an escape hatch for a series of tariff increases in the coming months, worried about the potential for further economic damage. Donald trump oepened one of thoe escape hatches last night with a tweet saying he was delaying increased tariffs on chinese goods scheduled for october 1st as quote, a gesture of goodwill. Due to the fact that the peoples republic of china will be celebrating their 70th anniversary and that is the very first time a president of the United States has greeted the birthday of the communist dictatorship in china with such a gift. According to politicos reporting, the change is all part of an effort by some trump advisers who understand just how damaging the Trump Trade War is to the United States and to Donald Trumps reelection campaign. Politico reports the goal of the internal Administration Discussions is to forestall october tariff increases and the next tariffs set to take effect in december with some advisers arguing that the economic hit is real and must be mitigated prior to the election year. The economic hit is real according to every economist not working in the trump white house. Yahoo finance reports forecasting firm moodys analytics estimates that the Trump Trade War with china has already reduced u. S. Employment by 300,000 jobs compared with likely employment levels absent the trade war. Thats a combination of jobs eliminated by firms struggling with tariffs and other elements of the trade war and jobs that would have been created but havent because of reduced economic activity. The firms chief economist mark sandy who will join us in a moment told Yahoo Finance that the job toll from the trade war will hit about 450,000 by the end of the year if theres no change in policy by the end of 2020, the trade war will have killed 900,000 jobs on its current course. The hardest hit sectors are manufacturing, warehousing, distribution, and retail. In other bad Economic News for the trump reelection campaign, President Trumps own Treasury Department has been forced to admit that the u. S. Annual budget deficit is now more than a trillion dollars a year. Candidate donald trump ran for president promising to completely eliminate the budget deficit by balancing the federal budget every year, and then completely eliminate the National Debt, but in fact, President Trump has increased the National Debt from 19 trillion to 22 trillion, and there are more troubling suggestions of the possibility of a recession hitting before the 2020 election. Jeffrey goodblock, chief executive officer of double line capital said we should be on recession watch before the 2020 election. Gundlach said thursday in london, were getting closer but were not there yet. The odds of a u. S. Recession before the election are 75 . An economic adviser on john mccains 2008 president ial campaign and is currently advising some of the dmkemocrat president ial candidates on economic ats. And a columnist for the daily beast and msnbc political analyst. He covered president obamas efforts to bring the country out of recession in his first years. Mark zandy, i want to start with you and your view of what the job loss, what the effects are of the Trump Trade War. Its doing a lot of damage. I think its fair to say that manufacturing, the ag sector, the transportation distribution sectors are already in recession and the problems are starting to broaden out. Were seeing job growth slow in many parts of the economy. The slowdown has been very pronounced since this time last year when the trade war got going, and if growth slows any further, were going to see unemployment start to rise, and once unemployment starts to rise, thats the fodder for an economic downturn because that spooks people. You know, they sense the rising unemployment, fewer open job positions, less opportunity, smaller pay increases, less bon bonus. They start to pull back a bit on their spending, businesses see that, they start pulling back more on their hiring. You can see how you get into that selfreinforcing negative cycle, which is a recession. Were not there yet, but the trade war is doing a lot of damage. If the president continues on the current course, well get there pretty soon. And jonathan, we saw trump reaching for an escape hatch. To commemorate the 70th birthday of a communist dictatorship he has decided to delay, delay his tariffs, all of which are illegal, by the way. They are he is using a clause inside trade law specifically for national security, and theres not a Single National security element in chinese clothes washing machines being imported into the United States or canadian steel being imported into the United States, so forth, so these are all illegal tariffs that the market seems to have assumed would go away as soon as they became a political problem. But donald trump is Still Holding onto them. Well, hes the master of disaster, and hes never consistent on any issue, and trade is among them. He just goes back and forth, back and forth. The question now is whether he sees his reelection flashing before him, and if you look at mark zandys numbers, he says 900,000 jobs under the current tariffs if the new ones kicked in in october, it would go over a million jobs. So thats a pretty good talking point for democratic candidate, right . David plouffe who ran Barack Obamas successful 2008 president ial campaign urged all of the democratic candidates, all of them to use exactly what you just said and to use marks analysis tonight, only one of them did. Right. But they would next year if the tariffs continue. I think and i dont want to make these sorts of predictions about trump because hes so unpredictable but because his reelection is the only thing he cares about, there are some signs in recent days that he is looking, as you said, for an escape hatch, so theyre going to put this all in reverse. But that then puts xi jinping in the drivers seat, then he has trump exactly where he wants him. And you have another situation where this guy proves to be a disastrously bad negotiator. So he will try to go back to the terms that they had in may when they came close to having a deal, well see whether xi jinping accepts them. Hes got his own problems in hong kong. He has his own incentives to want to deal. And theres some reporting out of china that, you know, insiders are saying that he doesnt want to see trump lose his temper, so he may be trying to placate him. So they may have kind of a fig leaf trade deal to reassure markets. Mark, what about the chinese economy and their ability to just hang on for 18 months and hope for a new president . Yeah, good point, and the advantage the chinese has, and i should say the trade war is doing a lot of damage here, its doing obviously a lot of damage there. The chinese economy is struggling, but the advantage they have is that they have a lot of room for monetary and fiscal stimulus. They can lower interest rates. They can ramp up infrastructure spending. They can cut taxes and theyre doing all of the above, and theyre doing it very rapidly. I mean, they dont have, you know, the problems we have as a democracy to get things done. They just do it, and so thats supporting their economy, and theyre still hitting their growth targets. You know, a lot of questions about the validity of those targets, but theyre pretty close. So i think because they have that latitude on monitoring fiscal policy, theyre going to i think theyre going to play a little longer game here, and i dont think theyre going to agree to anything substantive until after the election. I mean, i think theyre going to wa wait and see how the election plays out. Just one word in there that mark just said that i really want to emphasize for the audience. You dont want to get in a trade war with a dictatorship. No one in china is worried about their Approval Ratings in government in this situation. Donald trump is the one who has Political Risk in this. But it you know, were not sure whether xi wants trump out of there because hes so easy to manipulate that he might want to do trump a favor and come up with some kind of a deal because he could have his hands full , with president warren or President Biden or somebody else whos not as much of a sap and not as out of his depth in these negotiations. Mark, there is, after all, a republican primary now in the states that are allowing republican states that are allowing primary elections. I would expect the other republican candidates to be making as much of this as they possibly can, and in certain situations in certain states some of them might even get a better hearing on the Trump Trade War than some of the democrats get. Yeah, good point. You know, the irony in all of this, at least from a political perspective for the president is that the damage that the trade war is creating is mostly in those parts of the country that have voted very heavily for the president. You know, think about that. Agricultu agriculture, the farm sector. Of course the president s trying to mitigate the fallout of the trade war by 16 billion in aid, but that only goes so far. And of course manufacturing, i mean, he was all about manufacturing, and this is manufacturings on the front line of the trade war. Its in recession and starting to lose jobs. So you know, this is really hurting the parts of the country that voted for the president in the last election. And one thing, jonathan, that the president obviously doesnt understand about agricultural markets is that farmers arent looking at a fouryear horizon. Theyre looking at a lifetime horizon, and theyre looking at a horizon in which many of them home that their children will be running the farm after them. That means markets, having a market matters to them much more than getting a government handout because their market has been cut off. Once a market is cut off, it means its been the source for that market has been replaced by some other country. Right, so remember, the farm belt is the only place that trump has huge support. He had 75 in some of these areas, so any kind of erosion there is really damaging to him politically, and your point is spot on, j u. Ust to go to a qui Carter Administration example. When the soviets invaded afghanistan, carter over walter mondales objection imposed a grain embargo, drying up all those russian markets. Us sending grain to the soviet union. And you know what happened . Democrats got killed for 25 years. They are still suffering from it. You can go and people will still be talking about the 1980 grain embargo because its their livelihood, so if you wreck those export markets as youre discussing, there can be really longterm consequences for republicans. And mark, talk about the recession outlook and no one wants it to happen. No ones encouraging it, but when youre in the white house, you have to look at every possible warning sign, especially as youre approaching reelection and be extra cautious about this. Good point my sense is that if the president follows through on all of his tariff threats and we got another round coming at the end of the year, if he actually goes through with that, then recession odds for next year in 2020 are better than even. And you know, im not the only one who thinks that. Just look at whats going on in financial markets, the bond market, you know, the socalled yield curve, kind of a geeky thing, but its a leading indicator, and that indicator has been signaling very strongly that this Time Next Year the u. S. Economy will be in recession. So the collective wisdom of Global Investors are already concluding that recession is increasingly likely. So i think the president still has some time. You know, i think he can if he can stand down, find some face saving arrangement to end this thing and not follow through on those threats. I think the economy will navigate through barely. If he follows through, i think recession risks are better than even and theyre very, very high. Of course were not even considering all the other risks out there. Consider whats going on in the u. K. Around brexit, think whats going on in hong kong, think about whats going on in the middle east and iran. There are a lot of things that can derail an economy that is already weak with potentially rising unemployment. Jonathan, what mark just said about the trade war is what every president prior to donald trump heard from staff and from economists and experts. Whenever that president might have wondered why dont we just impose some retaliatory tariffs on china because of their behavior on x or y, and the answer was always its complex t. Is likely to backfire on us, at least as much as it is to harm china . You know, the great tragedy might be too strong, but its really unfortunate that the tpp didnt go through. This was negotiated under transpacific partnership. Because what that did is it actually isolated china. China was not part of it. Trump when he was trashing it, made everybody think that china was, but they werent. It was creating rules of the road that would make china play on our terms, and so the next president , if its a democrat is going to have to get back to this tough, but smart trade policy where you dont say things like, well, winning a trade war is easy and you have very tough negotiations on technology transfer, intellectual property, agricultu agriculture, genuine trade issues where the chinese are taking advantage of us. You come at it with our strength, not with protectionism that doesnt work. Yeah, and youve touched on a larger subject that we dont have time for tonight on international trade, which is that it has strategic importance beyond just economic policy, that it has a strategic importance in interlocking Different Countries and creating more of a security blanket in effect and eliminating different kinds of tensions that might otherwise arise. Were going to have to leave it there, mark zandy, Jonathan Alter, thank you for starting us off. When we come back, political scientist rachel biticoffer will join us once again to explain how the politics of impeachment could impact president ial campaigns. And she described what it felt like when she grabbed the microphone to protest what the Charlotte Observer called a shameless theft of democracy by republicans in North Carolinas house of representatives. You shall not do this to you shall not do this to democracy in North Carolina, mr. Speak speaker how dare you do this, mr. Speaker the only reason we were able to see that is because of john autry, he is the representative who had the presence of mind to capture it all on his phone to show the world the shame of North Carolina republicans. North carolina state representative john autry will join us coming up. s skyrizi. 3 out of 4 people achieved. 90 clearer skin at 4 months. After just 2 doses. Skyrizi may increase your risk of infections. And lower your ability to fight them. Before treatment your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection. Or symptoms such as fevers,. Sweats, chills, muscle aches or coughs. Or if you plan to or recently received a vaccine. I feel free to bare my skin. Visit skyrizi. Com. Hour 36 in the stakeout. As soon as the homeowners arrive, well inform them that Liberty Mutual customizes home insurance, so theyll only pay for what they need. Your turn to keep watch, limu. Wake me up if you see anything. [ snoring ] [ loud squawking and siren blaring ] only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Today the House Judiciary Committee took its biggest procedural step forward in its impeachment investigation of President Trump. This morning the committee voted on a set of rules to empower their inquiry of the president. The impeachment inquiry rules allow the committee to rely on counsel to question witnesses publicly and privately. The rules also establish a process for reviewing evidence like grand jury evidence privately and allows the president s attorneys to respond in writing to evidence that the Committee Examines both in public and in private. These are the same rules that have been used by the House Judiciary Committee in previous impeachment investigations of presiden president s. During the Vote Committee chairman jerry nadler said this. This committee is engaged in an investigation that will allow us to determine whether to recommend articles of impeachment with respect to President Trump. That is what we are doing. Some call this process an impeachment inquiry. Some call it an impeachment investigation. Theres no legal difference between these terms, and i no longer care to argue about the nomenclature. While some democrats have worried about the politics of impeachment, and our next guest has studied voter reaction to impeachment. Rachel bitecofer is the assistant director of the Wasson Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport university. She built a midterm forecast for the 2016 elections that was close to perfect, and she is this shows official second favorite rachel. Rachel, thank you very much for joining us again tonight. Really appreciate it. Its a pleasure. Talk to us about what you have found in voter reaction to the politics of impeachment for democrats. Yeah, let me explain how this is supposed to work. I mean, we used to hear that obama led from behind, right . And certainly we could watch trump every day leading from incompetence, but when we think about how democrats have led this impeachment effort, it really is leading by ambivale e ambivalence, i mean, even today with this vote we had nancy pelosi come and give a press conference where she seemed to assure everybody that it was a vote that was not for an impeachment inquiry, even though it kind of was maybe sort of, she isnt sure. So you know, its really difficult when youre talking about political messaging when you dont even know for sure what your own message is. And that can be really disastrous electorally. Let me explain why because when we talk about Public Opinion, this perception that we should be seeing movement in the public and that would inspire democrats then to take a leadership role on this issue, its just backwards. I mean, certainly there are times when Public Opinions going to lead, gay marriage would be a great example of where Public Opinion was on a leading indicator and pushed elites, but its very rare. Generally speaking, it flows from the top down, and the democrats really have mishandled the way the politics of this moment of impeachment. And so what is it that voters are looking for when they look at washington, they look at democrats facing the question of impeachment . Yeah, so i think the voters spoke pretty clearly in the 2018 midterms. As you know, we have discussed several times my election research, which shows that the house flips, especially in those marginal districts. Really were a product of turnout surges, not just of democratic voters but also of independents that didnt vote in the 2014 midterms and were galvanized to the polls. You have to believe that some of that was motivated by fear of what trump has been doing while in office, you know, certainly some of this impeachment inquiry involves russia, but some of it involves other things, the emoluments clause issues, the effort to obstruct justice during the russia investigation. The democrats speak in terms of the leadership anyway as if they were waiting for a message from the voters as to what they should do. But we just had a pretty big message, a 40seat message. I think the voters kind of spoke their case on that and even though the polls isnt really, you know, saying oh, theres this public outcry, thats because the salience of the issue has been obscured. I mean, democrats have not made this a major theme. They didnt make it a theme in the campaign. They havent held public hearings, where they aired the evidence, although mueller did have that one day of testimony, which a little bit of public exposure, but this idea that most people know what the Mueller Report revealed, its ludicrous. I mean, i guarantee you that less than 1 of the American Public has actually read the Mueller Report. You studied the districts and predicted the districts where the democrats would flip republican seats to the democrats in the last election. Those are the seats that some democrats in leadership in the house have been trying to protect by immuting the subject of impeachment, but what weve started to see is some of the winners of those flipped seats themselves are coming outs in support of impeachment, and nose are the people who the democratic leadership were trying to protect from having to take a position on impeachment. Yeah, and its exactly a product of this. I mean, heres the question that the press likes to ask a lot. Should donald trump be impeached. Okay, well, thats a political question, but when you ask the question, has donald trump committed impeachable crimes. The answer is yes. Yes, maybe times 20, and a lot of these marginal districts, i think katie porter is a great example of this in california, how do you look your constituents in the face and say were going to allow the commander in chief, the president to sit there day in and day out, run rough shot over the constitution and not hold him to account, and the real trouble with that is that once you allow that to happen, it opens the flood gate to more intrusion and more outlandish behavior. And i think that thats why were starting to see some of these marginal district members starting to stand up for the rule of law because it really does become politically dangerous to just simply ignore the behavior. Rachel, before you go, whats the lesson of tuesday nights election in North Carolina . So, the lesson there, democrats of course had that natural turnout surge or it wouldnt have been a competitive race. Were talking about a district that was safely republican. However, because they chose to not tap into the referendum effect thats feeding that natural enthusiasenthusiasm, pay among those base voters they came up short. So it was definitely a winnable election with a better strategy. Whats the better strategy in that situation . So, when you look at how the republicans ran, run these races, they make sure that share voters know theres a national component. They tie voting for bishop as a vote for support of trump. You really never saw that relationship spelled out for democratic voters on the other side, and that really does make a difference. I mean, trump came in on Election Night and reminded voters to show up to vote. That never happened on the other side. Rachel bitecofer, thank you very much for joining us tonight. Really appreciate it. Thank you so much for having me. Great to have you back. And when we come back, the North Carolina democrat who made sure that the whole world was able to see what the republicans were doing what was called a theft of democracy in the sta statehouse yesterday on 9 11. John autrys video of his colleague deb butler calling out republicans actions galvanized democrats to protest today. State representative john autry will be our next guest. Managing lipids like very high triglycerides, can be tough. You diet. Exercise. But if youre also taking fish oil supplements, you should know, they are not fdaapproved, they may have saturated fat and may even raise bad cholesterol. To treat very high triglycerides, discover the science of prescription vascepa. Proven in multiple clinical trials, vascepa, along with diet, is the only prescription epa treatment, approved by the fda to lower very high triglycerides by 33 , without raising bad cholesterol. Look. Its clear. Theres only one prescription epa vascepa. Vascepa is not right for everyone. 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On twitter she called for speaker moores resignation with the iwillnotyield. I will not yield is the line that made her go viral after she confronted the House Speaker yesterday. I will not yield were not going to let anybody touch you. I will not yield, mr. Speaker i will not yield you shall not usurp the process mr. Speaker how dare you subject this body to trickery, deceptive practices, hijacking the process. We have been here day ask night for months defending what we believe, and you would submit this body to trickery, deception, deceit . It is so typical of the way you conduct yourself. How dare you, mr. Speaker. Deb butler joined us as a quest here at the last word last night, and today this is what deb butler had to say. North carolina is better than this. Yes. We deserve better than this. Yes our citizens deserve representatives with integrity, decency, respect for the rule of law. What happened yesterday was a shameful, shameful display. We will not yield. We will not yield we demand more of our legislators and our elected representatives. Yes, we demand more. Thats right. And we will see you at the ballot box in 2020. [ cheers and applause ] one of the heroes at deb butlers side yesterday was Democratic State representative john autry. He is the one who had the presence of mind to grab his phone and capture that video of deb butler refusing to yield, and he joins us now. Representative john autry, North Carolina, thank you very much for joining us tonight. You know, when deb butler was here last night, i asked her how it felt as Police Officers were closing in on her and then her colleagues, including you, surrounded her. You with the camera. Other colleagues we could hear on your video saying dont let anyone touch her. You all immediately went into a mode of protection so that she could continue, and it didnt seem like there was any real strategy to it. It seemed like it was just a natural impulse that you all felt . I would have to agree with that. It seemed certainly appropriate and, you know, once the sergeant of arms motioned for the Capitol Police to be brought in, thats what prompted representative candy smith to say dont let anybody touch her, and then we just all started immediately moving around her and circling her. I had already been shooting with my phone because once the sergeant in arms approached, i says, okay, this is not going to go down the way they think its going to go down. Yeah, and we noticed that you were behind her at first, and then we saw that your camera and you hustle forward, get in front of her, so we ended up getting that more dramatic shot. When you did that, we could also see the capitol Police Officers coming in behind her. What did you think was going to happen at that point . I had no idea what was going to happen. I knew she was going to have her say, and she was going to make her points, but they werent going to be taking her out of that chamber. Shes an elected member of that chamber and has the right to be on that floor and to express herself. What was your own personal reaction when you discovered what had happened . Well, i was a little suspicious when i first walked in. Usually in these kinds of skeletal sessions you may have ten to a dozen members of each party on the floor, but most of the other side of the aisle was in their seats, and that raised my antenna right away, and i recall mumbling to my seat mate that hes going to call that vote, and sure enough, thats when he recognized one of the representatives for a motion, you know, to say that youre going to recognize a member, you dont know what theyre going to be rising for, but the speaker was very explicit to say the chair recognizes representative sane for a motion. So i figured this was all planned out ahead and it really denied over half the population of North Carolina because last year democrats in the Legislature Received 51 of the votes in North Carolina, so they basically denied a little over 5. 5 Million People their representation by pulling this stunt. And your camera work was brilliant, and im sure there are cinematographers in hollywood saying he captured everything in the room you needed because you did that shot when deb butler challenged the other side where you panned across to the other side, and we see all of the republicans sitting there in a completely different mode from the democrats. Theres just a tiny handful of democrats who were standing around, but all those republicans are organized in place. Its like they were showing up for something completely different from why you were there. I would have to agree with that. We were there to take the pledge and have the opening prayer, probably hear a couple of motions for other ancillary administrative purposes, and then gavel out to be coming back in at 1 00 for a voting session. This happens a lot in the general assembly, and we had an opportunity yesterday that it was just there was no media in the room, so i think being able to capture that on the phone to show people what it was like and where it happened and how it happened really was an important piece of the story of the legislature, legislative session this year. The country is very grateful, North Carolina is very grateful. One final point, so the senate has not voted to override the veto, so whats happening in the senate . Well, the senate has different rules than the house does, and in the senate they have to once the measure is put on the calendar for the senate, they are given their membership 24hour notice of when theyre going to vote, and the senate did break the super majority in that chamber last year during the election also. So what is the likelihood of the senate overriding the veto . I think the likelihood is very strong. They would have to only peel away one democrat to vote with them, but i think that after the way they exhibited themselves yesterday, were dealing with a group of people who arent really concerned about governing. Theyre concerned with ruling, and thats what they exhibited yesterday. State representative john autry, thank you very much for going to work with that camera yesterday that told the story the way nothing else could. Thank you, lawrence. Thank you for having me on. Really appreciate it. Thank you. And when we come back, ted cruz who had a real challenge last year from beto orourke for his senate seat is now very worried about republicans in texas. Thats next. Welcome to fowler, indiana. One of the windiest places in america. And home to three bp wind farms. In the offchance the wind ever stops blowing here. The lights can keep on shining. Thanks to our natural gas. A smart partner to renewable energy. Its always ready when needed. Or. Not. At bp, we see possibilities everywhere. To help the world keep advancing. Doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacistrecommendeding . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Audreys on it. Eating right . On it staying active . On it. Audrey thinks shes doing all she can to manage her type 2 diabetes and Heart Disease but is her treatment doing enough to lower her heart risk . [sfx crash of Football Players colliding offcamera. ] maybe not. 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The type 2 diabetes pill thats on it. Learn more at jardiance. Com joining our discussion now is former republican congressman david jolly, he is an msnbc political analyst and Jonathan Alter is back with us. Ted cruz said something today that is noteworthy. He said at a speech, i think the texas election in 2018, meaning his, is powerful foreshadowing for what to expect across the country in 2020, the far left is pissed off, they hate the president and that is a powerful motivator. If the left shows up in massive numbers and everybody else doesnt, thats how we end up with an incredibly damaging election. And so, david, ted cruz is impressed with what democrats have already achieved in texas. Ted cruz is coming off a real scare at the hands of broeeto orourke somebody who tonight seemed to get his stride back, had his confidence back and particularly on the issue of guns, and ted cruz at the moment you were talking about was talking about specifically guns and the issue of guns in texas, coming after el paso. Look, at the end of the day, texas may be another cycle from turning blue. If it goes blue, republicans are done, and theyre done for a generation, but what ted cruz is failing to do is shape Public Opinion in texas around guns. Beto was trying to do it, and democrats are trying to do it nationwide. If they can shape Public Opinion instead of just following Public Opinion, democrats could eventually flip texas. And jonathan, latest quinnipiac poll showing 53 of texans support new gun legislation. Right, i mean, things are changing in the lone star state. You know, people, for instance, they assume that its a conservative. Im sorry, weve got to cut you off, the democratic debate has been completed. That means were going to go straight to Brian Williams for a live postdebate analysis. We didnt watch the debates so we cant do it. Thanks to lawrence odonnell, and a welcome to all of those viewers joining us at the conclusion of the debate. Good evening from our nbc news headquarters in new york. Brian williams along with nicolle wallace, the third democratic primary debate has just wrapped up at houstons Texas Southern university, among the largest historically black colleges and universities in our nation. Tonight was the first debate as you know with this crowded election cycle in which all ten top contenders shared one stage. It meant that front and center were joe biden, elizabeth warren, and Bernie Sanders finally facing off for the first time in a showdown on the most important issue to democratic voters. Among the most divisive topics of the evening, in fact, was health care. More on that in a moment, but first, the night got underway with senator Kamala Harris speaking directly to one viewer. Heres what you dont get, what you dont get is that the American People are so much better than this, and we know that the vast majority of us have so much more in common than what separates us, regardless of our race, where we live, or the party with which were registered to vote, and i plan on focusing on our common issues, our common hopes and desires, and in that way unifying our country, winning this election, and turning the page for america and now President Trump, you can go back to watching fox news. At the center of the stage tonight, the front runner and the biggest target of the evening, joe biden. At one point Julian Castro appeared to take a swipe at biden over what he seemed to regard as some sort of senior moment. The difference between what i support and what you support, vice President Biden is that you require them to opt in, and i would not require them to opt in. They would automatically be enrolled. They wouldnt have to buy in. Thats a big difference because Barack Obamas vision was not to leave 10 Million People uncovered. He wanted every Single Person in this country covered. My plan would do that. Your plan would not. They do not have to buy in. They do not have to buy in. You just said that. You just said that two minutes ago. You just said two minutes ago that they would have to buy in. You said they would have to buy in. If you qualify for medicaid are you forgetting what you said two minutes ago . Are you forgetting already what you said just two minutes ago . I mean, i cant believe that you said two minutes ago that they had to buy in and now youre saying they dont have to buy. Youre forgetting that, i mean, look. Any grandmother who has no money we need a Health Care System youre automatically enrolled. You heard the crowd react in realtime, controversial moment for sure. It will be interesting to find out what sanders said to biden there between the two mental, b t men, the accusation from castro calls for a fact check. It appears biden did not say americans would have to buy in to his health care policy. Heres what he did say. My Health Care Plan does significantly cut the cost of the largest outofpocket payment youll pay is a thousand dollars. Youll be able to get to get in anyone who cant afford it gets automatically enrolled. Guess what. Of 160 Million People who like their health care now, they can keep it. If they dont like it, they can leave. Infighting was a topic on stage. And it called it brought about calls for unity and civility with mayor pete leading the charge. This reminds everybody of what they cannot stand about washington. Scoring points about each other, poking at each other and telling each other that my plan, we all thats an election. This is what were here for. Its an election. A house divided cannot stand. So airing a little bit of the laundry publically on stage tonight, it was interesting. It was as if someone might have told them prior to this event here is the deal. Obama good, trump bad. I dont know who that is of the democratic party. If you had to stick one headline on this night, you showed the moment that if he falls from what would have been months and months, this race is not that fluid at the top. I dont think anything that happened will move joe biden pout of the top three spots. I think the only thing if youre looking for some sort of action or anyone that can be in motion after tonight, i think beto orourke who found his voice, he still spoke with clarity. He seems to have gained some confidence between matching the moments. He tends to use salty language. I work for john mccain. I find that familiar and refreshing. He still has that sort of clarity that he really showcased after el paso. He had some moments. Whether it jostles him out of the bottom of the top ten, i dont know. I think Pete Buttigieg was very much on brand tonight. Whoever merges as the nominee, buttigieg will be named as someone who will be in his cabinet. Lets go to our man in houston, texas. Chris matthews in the spin room adjacent to the venue tonight. What was the view from there . You know, i agreed with everything the caller said. I thought the evening began with calls for unity. Im not intending to be present for half the American People but all the American People. It was a pushback against hard ideaiology from the democratic left. Certainly medicare for all, no more private insurance. Bernie and her competed on paying off all the student loans. Also a sort of purity test, beto said he is going to not just buy back, but demand that they sell them back. I noticed that this would be an extraordinary ruling by the Supreme Court that would allow a president to use executive orders to demand the end of ownership by automatic weapons by semiautomatic assault weapons. I think these are three or four cases of extreme positions. Generally, i thought there was a pushback on that stage against the hard left. I heard a lot of calls for unity. I thought there was a lot more pushback on allout health care, medicare for all without Health Insurance from the private sector. On border issues, fascinating. Last time around people were talking about certainly decriminalizing illegal border crossings. I think that was a cheap shot. The fact is he got his facts wrong. In terms of competency, he risked his position tonight. I cant help but notice senator klobuchar over your right shoulder. Shes right here as we speak. We will come back to you. Our frequent viewers know the drill. When chris gets a candidate wired up and ready to go, well go to chris in houston. With us here, members of our studio. Eugene robinson and joy reed, the host of a. M. Joy at the bick board tonight our National Correspondent steve kornacki. Welcome to you all. Senator, were going to begin with you. Were kings or queens made or destroyed on that stage tonight . Whats your headline . I think castro is hurt. I think he was trying to swing for the fences. People kept talking about the tension between warren and biden. The tension i felt on the stage, this was their in some ways their last moment to make a lasting impression to try to get in to the kind of debate that will probably move the needle some down the line. Im not sure anything tonight moved the needle except i think castro offended people the way he did that. And it wont surprise me if it helps biden. I totally agree. For long stretches the debate seemed like biden versus the fringes. They were trying to get some sort of purchase. I think you understate the damage that castro did. He would have lost a lot of support if he had a lot of support to lose. He didnt. He had a little support. I think its basically over. He took a shot. It was not a good shot. And it just really went over like a balloon. That was a bad moment for him. I thought cory booker at times sort of looked wise and president ial. And he presents himself in a way that you can sort of imagine. I think he might have done himself some good tonight in the debate. There were a number of issues he wasnt pressed on. Maybe he will be in future debates. Other than that, i didnt see a lot of movement. Its interesting what was said. That would have been the place to be. We did have a great time. I think because you run in campaigns you know the likability argument in politics gets thrown at women. When youre running a campaign having worked on the press side, you have to always remember who is likable among your opponents. I think that going after biden is smart in the sense that he is at the top. If you want to get at the top you have to take him on. You have to remember people like joe biden. Joe biden is not donald trump. People like joe biden. They may not know enough about joe biden to know the dings in his past. When they find him out they may be disappointed. Fundamentally democrats like him. Democrats are fundamentally horrified and terfired. For the same reason they are turned off by president obama. If youre going to come frapresident obama they would defend him. He is on their side fundamentally. I think when you are trying to take out a front runner, youfr dont do it in a way that presumes people dont like this person. I think that was too harsh on his part. I thought beto had a great night. Now i can see in him the confidence. He just wants to send a message that i think is authentic. And then my last is that warren, no one touched her. She has been coherent on everything she said. Did she get enough air time . No one did. Its the same number of people. I know we have to go. Nobody said a word about senator harris. An attack on trump is exactly what they want. By the way, mayor pete had a good night, too. It was very strong. Chris matthews is going to get the honor and distinction of taking us over the top of the hour what is normally the 11th hour, tonight our special post debate coverage. Chris is standing by with the first of our special guests tonight. I thought you started by setting a key note. You talk about this is an idea logical debate. You talked about you didnt want to be president of half the country. Do other candidates risk that of getting in there and having trump turn in the right of the country and being center right against him and the same divide from another perspective . Thats my concern. Im snn from the middle of the country y. Have been able to get things done because of the fact that i have worked down things that matter to people and listen to the constituents. But what i wanted to make a point i would have liked to have made more of it is these ideas are fine. Some of them would maybe get 100 scoring. They may not be the right policy. Throwing 149 Million People off the health careur