Analysis and discussion of the days top stories and compelling issues from Lawrence ODonnell. Analysis and discussion of the days top stories and compelling issues from Lawrence ODonnell. Analysis and discussion of the days top stories and compelling issues from Lawrence ODonnell. Analysis and discussion of the days top stories and compelling issues from Lawrence ODonnell. Analysis and discussion of the days top stories and compelling issues from Lawrence ODonnell. Analysis and discussion of the days top stories and compelling issues from Lawrence ODonnell. Everybody has gone home. A few hours ago, this was a pretty bumping party. Democrats really felt like they had a shot here tonight. It the last 48 hours of this race, everything seemed to be breaking their way. The republican candidate stumbled into a gaffe about Franklin CountyThe Night Before the election started. Their candidate had been all over the place in national and local media. They felt like they were fighting out the last few days of this campaign on democratic issue turf talking about health care, they were talking about protecting it Social Security. Thats one of the reasons that democrats nationally by the way like what they see here today. They like the issue set that was fought over in this campaign. Theyre also going to like the enthusiasm a lot. You talked about that big Franklin County number, 65 of the vote. You saw that reflected around this district over the last couple days. Core democratic voters were fired up to vote in this race, fired up to volunteer out
knocking on doors out in neighborhoods, out making phone calls. I talked to a lot of voter whos said they have never been as engaged in a Congressional Election as they were in this one. Some folks said they were volunteering for the first time. I spent most of my time today with the democrats. I have to say from the Republican Point of view here, if there is a Silver Lining to this narrow what looks like it might be a victory, its that to some degree their formula worked. You talked about running up the score in some of those rural areas. In a lot of places around the country that look like this, that is what republican republicans have to do, they have to juice turnout in their as a areas with donald trump or adds with nancy pelosi, and hold on and hope this democratic enthus yap wave doesnt knock them off their peshlgs. I do think we saw a little bit of a blueprint how it will work. The resources and money and time
wont be the same when theres 435 house races happening instead of one on a random tuesdayner i august. A superb election in the dead of the summer. My kind of night here i guess you could say. Garrett, great reporting. Thank you for joining us outside what was the oconnor headquarters outside columbus. Former republican congressman david jolly from you florida, John Pod Or Ritz and kimberly atkins, columnist for the boston herald. David, let me start with you. Im looking at the story from this district. Im seeing three different stories looking at we showed there Franklin County. Clinton won it and tonight you saw the energy was there for democrats. The Support Level for oconnor was higher than it was for clinton by will ten points. Turnout level was higher. Im thinking that story is trouble for republican members of congress, barbara cop stock
right outside washington, d. C. From the suburban areas highly educated, trouble for them when you see that. A lot of my former colleagues in congress will have hard conversations with Party Leadership in the next month or two. The party may begin to pull resources from districts. They might be too vulnerable incumbents to hold toes seats. Were also seeing this trend away from republicans almost at large. These are districts that trump won, states trump won. Were seeing a contrast between the trump effect in a General Election which is the special election in ohio is essentially a General Election. Also the influence of trump in primaries like were seeing in kansas, move to washington and youre seeing the negative wins that trump brings to those rays. Au in all, a good night for democrats. Well know in ten days balderson probably wins. The trend is getting away from republicans. Theyre in a lot of trouble when
these races are fought in competitive districts in november. The trend we should say. Trump by 11 points in this district tonight, one point if this holds. If i have this number right, so democrats need 23 seats to take control of the house. There were 24 districts. There are 24 Hillary Clinton districts. Up to 25 with that pennsylvania. There are 25 districts republicans are sitting in that hillary won. Okay. And then theres the question whether or not there are other districts like this one where trump wins by 11 where it gets close. If you look at this you say to yourself, the vast majority of those seats that hillary won those guys are in deep deep deep. Youre saying a wave. If i mean, think about this number. So this guy oconnor who is like a nobody out polls hillary in a hillary area. Right . By ten points. So we could be seeing that district after district after district after district. In other words, the democrats could already have pretty close to having the house in their pocket. I think they do. I dont think theres a scenario tonight where we would say republicans can hold the house. Steve, i have republican colleagues of mine friends who have been in the field. Theyre incumbents in the field for a year. Over the last 90 days, seeing the precipitous drop in support for republicans. Thats why you see republicans spend money early. Even in majority republican districts, you now have a lot of vulnerable members. And i have to say when you sit down, you can do examiners sometime or make the map yourself and start flipping districts and you start out with the number 23 and say democrats got to pick off 23 republicans. Maybe republicans are fortified here. It goes fast. Kimberly, look, republicans will say bottom line, we won. It wasnt pretty. Again, its too close to call but certainly youd rather be balderson with the numbers than oconnor. Republicans will say if this holds, we won this thing. Thats all that counts. Thats the story of the special elections besides pennsylvania a couple months ago, there were a lot of close calls but we won. Is there anything besides the bottom line you think they can hang their hats on at all . Thats a tough thing to say. We saw the president calling this a win. It sort reminds me of a regular season game when you know the playoffs are coming and you know that the teams will make a lot of adjustments leading into that. I think youre going to see that here, some of the things you were pointing out like not really growing the republican the suburbanen support for republicans having that slip a little bit. Its just, it may not be enough to overcome those to for even in those areas where you have that really inelastic support
for trump in the rural areas if they really are not winning the suburbs and not winning the more urban areas. If the democrats continue to mobilize, they mobilized in the middle of august, think whats going to happen in november. I think its going to be already really bad news for republicans when it comes to playoff time. Okay. So republican political consultant made the point that there is oner in lining for republicans which is to say that Balderson Defeat could have led to a stampede for the exits by not only by voters but by donors by people who have to pone up at the end, gin up enthusiasm. The idea if this had gone the other way, it probably wont, if this didnt look the way it did now, it would have been mass. The psychology of actually losing versus. The other way to look at it is like the first act of The Walking Dead and the zombies come and dont get in then but
then in three months, the zombies get into your cave. It may just be staving off the inevitable. Im just former republican congressman, you ran. Having to deal with donald trump a little bit. If you were running right now as a republican just trying to survive, in terms of whats the strategy you try to employ . You cant survive a 5050 district. One of the takeaways from baldersons race is interesting. He was not fully in with donald trump. He occasionally said the right things. I think he wanted to bid the wall. This was an entrenched establishment republican candidate. This was not a make America Great again candidate. Trump would say he should have been more trump. Im a product of special elections. My first race was a special election. To johns point, one of the things the Party Apparatus has to do is convince the high dollar institutional donors they can win these rays. I saw it in my election abconversely, i was running
during the implementation of obamacare and it provides an opportunity in my case for democrats to message test. At the time it was unpopular. The rollout was a disaster. Republicans were trying to find their footing on obamacare and frankly they couldnt. Republicans rights now are doing exactly the same thing trying to find their footing with donald trump. Where is it . They havent figured it out but they can go back to their donor base and say we at least know how to win. Thats about all they can say tonight. Kimberly, maybe this is sort of a Bigger Picture thing about the state of politics, the american divide. Looking at that map, the one other thing jumps out at me, Democratic Energy in and immediately around columbus, the energy there the support for the democratic candidate there, you go to the rural parts of the district and these are places that obama won one of the keens in the rural part of this district and it went to trump by 30 points in 2016. There was interesting suspense there tonight would there be erosion for republicans in the
trump country part of this district and there wasnt. This is a turnout might not have been great. Balderson was getting trump level support does make me wonder if thats getting to a Bigger Picture thing where republicans are casting their lot with that america and that sort of the future in the past for democrats. I think it depend how each of these districts look. If you have districts with more Rural Support like that, they will benefit from that inelastic support donald trump has had that weve seen in polling since inauguration day. A lot of these districts are drawn in ways theres a little bit of suburbia other things that come into play some that get closer into urban areas. This might be one way that some of the gerrymandering thats taken place to skim off urban areas to dilute that vote may come back to bite republicans in some ways if we see democrats turning out in those places. So its really going to be interesting to see how that plays out moving forward. Kimberly atkins, thanks for joining us. Coming up, other results and analysis from a bunch that we had ohio, we will kansas, michigan. Other results, other races to tell you about to break down all the numbers and the latest in todays other big political story, the Paul Manafort trial. Ken dilanian and henry lipman will join us. Stay with us. Est time to buy. You ready for this, junior . Yeah, i think i can handle it. No pressure. Thats just my favorite boat. Boom. laughs make summer go right with ford, americas bestselling brand. And get our best deal of the summer zero percent financing for sixty months on f150. Right now, get this special offer on f150 zero percent financing for 60 months during the Ford Summer Sales event. Hundred roads named park in the u. S. Its americas most popular street name. But Allstate Agents know thats where the similarity stops. If youre on park street in reno, nevada, the high winds of the Washoe Zephyr could damage your siding. And thats very different than living on park ave in sheboygan, wisconsin, where ice dams could cause water damage. But no matter what park you live on, one of 10,000 local Allstate Agents knows yours. Now that you know the truth, are you in good hands . As plans t soin. But he has plans today. So he took aleve this morning. Hey dad. If hed taken tylenol, hed be stopping for more pills right now. Only aleve has the strength stop tough pain for up to 12 hours with just one pill. Tylenol cant do that. Aleve. All day strong. All day long. Now introducing aleve back and muscle pain, for up to 12 hours of pain relief with just one pill. We must elect more republicans and we must elect troy balderson. We have to elect troy. Well, President Donald Trump at a rally on saturday for troy badderson, republican candidate in that special election in ohios 12th District tonight. The race as weve been telling you, we are currently saying too close to call. Balderson leading Democrat Danny Oconnor by less than a percentage point. Voters will not learn the final vote till all the absentee and provisional votes are kouned. Maybe the reason we have such suspense, maybe theres a recount as mandate bid state law. The president has already declared victory. Earlier tonight he tweeted when i decided to go to ohio for Troy Badder Son, he was down 6436. That was not good. After my speech on saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. He wins a great victory during a tough type of the year for
voting. He will win big in november followed by another Tweeting Congratulations to Troy Badder Son on a great win in ohio. Balderson is not the only candidate trumps endorsement appears to be helping. He tweeted his support for chris kovach in kansass republican primary for governor. Heres the result, kobach leading by 952 votes, jeff colyer, thats the incumbent republican governor, he had been the lieutenant governor, Sam Brownback left colyer takes over sort of an unelected as governor at least, heres the key though to keep in mind. The outstanding vote in kansas is almost all in johnson county. We talk about those more upscale suburbs, college changed all that stuff. We talked about them in ohio right outside kansas city. Colyer leading by 13 points. Certainly on paper you look and
say maybe colyer despite being behind but a very close race. Joining me now Jason Johnson, from the root. Com and msbc contributor. John podder ritz and jason. The president will try to find a way to declare victory with any of these. Hes doing it in ohio tonight. Maybe the Republican Party will be happy with that one. In can is if kobach were to win this thing, that is something the republican Establishment Doesnt Want to see. The president is still the biggest loudest voice for the Republican Party. He can claim victories tonight and he has proven he can be successful in moving people in primaries. Apparently trumpism only works for donald trump. People who push that kind of attitude, that kind of behavior, kobach with all the controversies in his background and the corruption and Everything Else like that, being
a trumpist works well in a republican primary. It may not be the best thing for you in a jen election. This is really important to understand sort of mathematically as a political scientist. The vast majority of special elections are in gerrymandered districts. Its generally not a swigs where in a special election you can beat the incumbent party. Democrats havent won very many federal elections. Theyve been winning at the state level. When you can break down a margin from 10 to 16 points to Single Digits knowing there will be a rematch in two months, every single republican has to be concerned heading into the fall and donald trump cant visit all the districts he needs to visit in order to stave off a blue wave. Its interesting. We talk about the trump effect. The obvious trump effect is the fact we had a competitive race in the 12th Congressional District a Democrat Hadnt Won since 1980. In terms of the result, the president going in on saturday making noise in this one, how do you look at the results in a way
the trump effect on this one . The way, trump is causing democratic enthusiasm. Right . This election is ohio election is kind of a joke like its happening in august. They have to run again in november with this recount stuff. September we may have an answer. Who knows when the winner will be sworn in. Hell be for six weeks and run again, right . So the whole thing was a proxy. Whether or not Garrett Haake said they were talking about Social Security and issues and that you will. Nobody was fooled. It was a proxy race. Right . So two things happen. So the democratic enthusiasm was huge and there was a trump effect almost certainly positively pore balderson. So the question i would have for dave jolly in this circumstance is, youre in trouble, youre a republican in trouble even if its a district that looks pretty you know, split, maybe you want trump. Maybe your only hope is ginning
Analysis and discussion of the days top stories and compelling issues from Lawrence ODonnell. I was willing to accept the consequences. If youre barbara cop stock, you cant distance yourself from the president but you dont have to embrace him. From a democrat candidates standpoint, it sounds like the president wants to be very visible this fall. If youre one of those democrats trying to unsaefrt a republican and the president is coming to your district a week or two out, are you saying uhoh, hes going to get the republicans fired up or saying oh, hes going to get the democrats fired up. Youre saying this is going to raise me money and i have a good chance he does as much damage as he does good. You saw this in the 12th District and youve seen this in other places. Donald trump shows up wherever you want to go. You may not be in a position of being able to ask him to show up because a president decides when he wants to show up. Sometimes he names the wrong candidate when he cops to a district. I dont know that if its two weeks in october if you really want to be the person bringing
donald trump. He may not show up. He may not stay on record or message and worse, what kinds of messaging sacrifices will you have had to make at the altar of trump in the previous three weeks to make yourself attractive enough hes going to want to make that swing . I probably wouldnt want to bother with him. You work on the fact youve been an incumbent and care about the local community. You dont want to make this a National Race if youre a republican right now. Whatever the ultimate result in ohio 12, there is plenty of reason for democrats when theyre cutting 12 points off trumps margin. The Bigger Picture coming up. You right now that i i believe, i really do believe that somethings got a hold on me, yeah oh, it must be love
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majority that might have a little bit more clout in power there . Were not taking anything for granted at all. When you look at the Conor Lamb Race or how close it is with Danny Oconnors race, we believe in each of these competitive races it will be 1,000 plus or minus votes. Thats why its so important that our candidates are able to appeal not just to the Democratic Base but to maybe disenchanted Republican Voters independent voters. So we know how important this is and were going to stick to making sure that they understand that their Health Care Costs are going up. Pay collects do not have certainty and that the corruption in washington needs to be addressed. We think that will be the margin of victory. One of the biggest messages from republicans against Danny Oconnor and if they do hang on and win, if balderson does, republicans will say what saved them at the end was running against the idea of Speaker Nancy Pelosi because oconnor
had they ran the ad with oconnor on this network saying in the end he would vote with democrats for at the pel. Do you expect nancy at the pel to be the democratic leader after this novembers election . I do. And again, thats the message that shows the bankruptcy of their values that theyre not talking about what theyre for. Theyll have a real problem if Danny Oconnor is coming within 1500 votes right now and theres 79 districts more competitive. Theyd better come up with something more appealing to the values that voters have in their districts. Eric swalwell, thank you for joining us. Our panel is back with us. David jolly, john podhoretz, Jason Johnson johnson. Im interested in the question about nancy pelosi. Weve seen so Many Democrats in districts just like this, ohio 12. Part of that portfolio is saying im not going to vote for nancy pelosi. If democrats get the majority
and its slim and 20 or 30 candidates show up in washington pledging not to vote for nancy pelosi, can she be the democratic leader . She can. But heres the other thing. This works both ways. In the ohio district 12, remember, oconnors campaign was saying hey, is balderson going to vote for jim jordan if he runs for a Leadership Position with the controversy going on with ohio state right now. There are lots of Different Things that can come into play. If the democrats win the house by a reasonable margin, nancy pelosi will initially step aside. Dealing with donald trump is not the same thing as george bush. Its not the same thing as barack obama. The democrats need a wartime consigliere, younger more aggressive kind of leadership in order to keep pace with the excitement and enthusiasm of their base. I dont know if nancy pelosi and James Clyburn can continue doing
that. You got a name in mind . So i have said for a long time, i think tim ryan will try something. I think swalwell. There are several members of the Congressional Black Caucus thinking about it right now. Im fairly confident the new leadership with the Democratic Party will be a much more diverse leadership than perhaps in the past. Do you expect nancy pelosi to be democratic leader come january . I question whether pelosi is a figure as radioactive as other as other political leaders in congress have been to help the other side. Like shes not newt. Newt was you know, very useful. Shes not dole. Shes not so i think the hope of republicans is that they can somehow threaten republican vote ares to might stay home with the possibility that nancy pelosi will be speaker and a lot of low Information Voters will say whos nancy pelosi. So if im right about that, then she doesnt have to be turned out because she wont be a figure, a Lightning Rod of controversy. Its not clear to me the democrats are responding to pelosi in the way they are because theyre worried she is useful to republicans. Its nor like shes owed, shes been there a long time. Let people that were more simpatico with have the job. I think she was actually a pretty good speaker when she was tem speaker technically speaking. Im not sure you should throw her aside for somebody untested. The whole drama there, joe crowley seemed in position if pelosi were to step aside. Hes not anymore. Jason johnson, david jolly, john, thank you all for staying up late on a very fun election night. Coming up next, good news for democrats hoping for that blue wave in november. Going to break down some of the top tier democratic targs this november. They may be more favorable turf for party than we saw in the
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lymphoma and other cancers have happened. Dont start xeljanz xr if you have an infection. Tears in the stomach or intestines, low blood cell counts, and higher liver tests and cholesterol levels have happened. Your doctor should perform blood tests before you start and while taking xeljanz xr, and monitor certain liver tests. Tell your doctor if you were in a region where fungal infections are common and if you have had tb, hepatitis b or c, or are prone to infections. Dont let another morning go by without talking to your rheumatologist about xeljanz xr. All right. Welcome back again. Officially still too close to call out there in ohio 12. Even if Democrat Danny Oconnor ends up falling short there there may be something for democrats to look forward to in november. Potentially in that district. But maybe elsewhere too as the cook political reports David Wasserman tweeted tonight, there
are 6 republican held house seats less republican than ohio 12 according to the cook political partisan voting index. And there are also 119 less republican districts than that pa1 seat that democrats won back in march. The magic number for democrats to win the house, they need 23 to do that. We thought we would take a look at some of those districts that may be top tier target for democrats. Why dont we look at this. This was the last one, the last special election it started all the way back in april 2017. Since the 2016 election heading into 2018, these are all the special elections for the house. So many great memories. How many nights did we stay up like this. Some of these were very suspenseful. Clearly a pattern emerged. This is around wichita. This was mike pompeos district. Trump won by 27. The republicans did win the seat
in the special election but that was a move to the democrats of 20 points there from 27 to 7. You saw it in montana. Entire state, thats the one where the republican Candidate Body slammed the reporter The Night Before the election. Again, he did win that election. He might be in trouble this fall but that was a shift of 14 points for democrats. The one big exception on this list, it was georgia 6. It was the suburbs north of atlanta. Thats the one thing when republicans, boy, if they want to be optimistic they can say hey, somehow thats going to be the rule here and Everything Else will be an outlier. But otherwise, look, Double Digit Gains for democrats utah is a weird one. There was a Third Party Candidate in the president ial race. Trumps margin there. Beak this, coming into tonight, the average gain for democrats versus 2016 was 10 1 2 points. They beak gained 10 1 2 points tonight. If things hold, a little bit less than a point, well call it a point, republicans by a point there. Bottom line, take a look at it this way. We say 23 is the magic number. We talked about where oconnor ran up is the magic number. Hillary clinton won the one county where she won in 2016. He did 10 points better than her and the turnout was through the roof. Who are the most nervous republicans right now . These 25. The republicans here all represent districts that were won by Hillary Clinton. I think these republicans, if they are looking at that Hillary Clinton portion of ohio tonight, they got to be worried. Theres a lot of demographic similarities in some of these districts. The clinton district republicans i think have to be worried when they see a result like this tonight. Coming up, todays other big political story, the trial of Paul Manafort. Still nervous about finding a new apartment . Yeah. But popping these things really helps me. Relax. Please dont, im saving those for later. At least you dont have to worry about renters insurance. Just go to geico. Com. Geico helps with renters insurance . Good to know. Been doing it for years. Thats really good to know. Ill check em out. Get to know geico. And see how easy homeowners and renters insurance can be. Thousands he admitted to embezzling from manafort. Though Paul Manafort is facing charges from before his time as Trump Campaign chairman, today in court the Trump Campaign was also discussed. It was a Tale Of Dueling Narratives at the Paul Manafort trial today. The star witness rick gates was on the stand for hours accusing manafort of corruption, of tax evasion, of faking loan documents, of bank fraud. Then gates came under Withering Cross Examination by manaforts lawyers. The person for whom this is really bad is donald trump, because these guys were running his campaign and they both from the evidence in the trial, whatever the conviction or acquit tatal is, they both appe to have been sleaze bags. He parked millions of dollars in
foreign Bank Accounts outside the irs. He has not refuted that at the trial. His only hope is to say it was not intentional and therefore not a felony. Gates has admitted to massive crimes including tax evasion, bank fraud and stealing from Paul Manafort. Today it emerged he had a secret life, a mistress at a crash pad in london. It was an interesting trial, day in court today. Manaforts lawyers did damage gates credibility, but they didnt challenge sort of the overall assertions that he made in the morning, buttressed by documents that the prosecution introduced, some of which were emails from Manafort Clearing showing his involvement in shady behavior. Joining us now harry litman, former federal prosecutor and Deputy Assistant attorney general under president clinton. Ken is saying there it sounds
like gatess credibility was damaged by that cross examination today, the defense team really going after him. Ultimately, do you think that matters . Well, maybe a little. He did get beat up some, but that was to be expected. The important thing is not whether hes done sleazy or criminal things. Its whether the jury now believes hes telling the truth. And what he said is, look, heres my plea agreement. If i tell a lie, i lose it all. Im incentivized for it. The defense made a textbook error. They said to him, well, if youre done so many lies, should the jury believe you now. He said yes. And they said why . And you learn in trial 101 dont ask a question You Dont Know the answer to. He was prepped for it and he said, because im here to tell the truth, Paul Manafort had the same choice, he chose another path. I think that hit home. The important thing is not what
hes done in the past but whether as hes sitting there they have reason to believe him. That is not just his word, but all the corroborating evidence that the government has introduced. So they scratched him up some, but i dont think in any critical way. Im curious too what you make of the judge in this case. Theres been some coverage, some attention to his behavior in the courtroom, some withering criticism really of the defense team, telling one of the lawyers, saying, i see tears in your eyes, essentially saying, maybe i made you cry. What do you make of what the judge is up to here . He actually said that to a prosecutor, a lead prosecutor. Im sorry. I said defense. Thats all right. Ive been in front of him as a prosecutor. He does take a special relish in sort of slapping you around. But hes gone farther here. Theres not only what you just
said, which at least was out of earshot of the jury. But within the jurys earshot when gates testified that manafort was on top of everything he did, judge ellis volunteered apropos of nothing, well not everything, obviously, since he didnt know about the money you were stealing, this in front of the jury. Thats really improper. You know, ellis is known for being feisty, but this is the kind of thing that can prejudice the United States. I dont think it will, but if it does, theres no appeal. If theres an acquittal here, the United States cant reverse it because of double jeopardy. If there is a conviction on the other hand in terms of muellers investigation, look, this case is officially its about the Business Practices of Paul Manafort. The Trump Campaign came up today in the court, but this has not primarily been about the Trump Campaign. But in terms of muellers
investigation of russian interference in the 2016 election, the Trump Campaign, if he gets a conviction, does it in any way feed into that . Is there a connection there . Is there a next step if he gets this connection . Yeah. So i think in a few ways. First, as you mentioned, it does have a little bit to do with the russia stuff even in the trial. Of course, manafort and gates, as you mentioned at the top, during the campaign in the thick of it, manaforts losing several hundred thousand dollars a month, in fact. But i just think more generally, trump has so invested in the notion this is a rigged phony probe and a decisive win here by mueller just strengthens his hand, strengthened rosensteins hand and weakens trumps commensurately. The drama is going to continue inside that courthouse. Weve got accounts from our
reporter and those Court Drawings too we get to put up on the air. Always fun to get to show those. Well be right back. Fact is, every Insurance Company hopes you drive safely. But allstate actually helps you drive safely. With drivewise. It lets you know when you go too fast. And brake too hard. With feedback to help you drive safer. Giving you the power to actually lower your cost. Unfortunately, it cant do anything about that. Now that you know the truth. Are you in good hands . It was always our singular focus, a distinct determination. To do whatever it takes,
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