0 big storm bearing down just a week before the election. folks, we have our october surprise. its name is sandy. good morning from cincinnati. 11 days till election day, friday, october 26th, 2012. this is "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd and i'm still living on the air in cincinnati. so let's get right to my first read. president obama wrapped up a 48-hour, 8-state battleground blitz in cleveland late last night and with a hoarse voice went after a message he's been dealing all week long. romney's trustworthiness. >> trust matters. you know what, ohio, after all these years, you now know me. you know that i mean what i say. >> and almost the exactly same moment 150 mys west mitt romney took the starj in one of the great names in battleground politics, defiance, ohio, and he borrowed a page from the president's 2008 page book calling himself the president of change. >> this is a time when america faces big challenges. we have a big election and we want a president who will actually bring big changes and i will and he won't. >> well, we know ohio has been the ultimate bellwether in presidential elections for the last 50 years and the president's been putting a big emphasis on early voting both here and in other battleground states which is why he decided to be the first president, well, early vote and dit yesterday in chicago. >> we need some i.d. >> oh, no. >> i got my driver's license here. >> yes, by law even the president has to show i.d. to vote early in illinois. meanwhile, both sides are dealing with unexpected let's call them political speed bumps, if you will on the trail. for romney it's been indiana's team romney and republicans, national campaign co-chair john sununu who made these e eyebrow-raising questions about colin powell's endorsement of president obama. >> when you take a look at colin powell, you have to wonder whether that's an endorsement based on issues or whether he's got a slightly different reason for preferring president obama. >> what reason would that be? >> well, i think when you have somebody of your own race that you're proud of being president of the united states, i applaud co colin for standing with him. >> race-based endorsement and sununu issued this "colin powell is a friend and i respect the endorsement decision he made and i do not doubt that it was based on anything but his support of the president's policies." he didn't deal with that and seemed to claim that wasn't the question. imagine if the other side had alleged if ross perot made his outside the studio you can see dozens of supporters chanted slogans and nearly as contentious inside, slightly more polite. >> you can't close tax loopholes when these companies that outsource jobs. if you sign the grover norquist pledge -- not that your chances going to the senate are that high. >> for a guy running since president nixon was running, don't you have a couple of good things to say about your own record? >> it's a fight for the presidential fight but romney has blurred distinctions between his original position on the auto bailout and mandel is running a different race in his very -- offers a lot of clarity on his position on the auto bailout. >> is there a bailout you would have supported? >> i'm not a bailout senator. there's no government bailout i could think of that i would ever support. if you're watching at home and looking for a bailout senator, that's sherrod brown. >> would you have not followed what george join rich and i wanted to do with president obama, just let the industry fall apart. i know it's good empty slogans and poll-tested kind of statements but i just wonder what you would have done to help the middle class of the state. >> throughout the night mandel attacked brown as a creature of washington, accusing him of washingtonspeak and using that phrase over and tried to distance himself from the national republican party, mandel. >> if elected would you vote for the ryan budget plan, yes or no, why or why not? >> i have not come out in support of that plan and do not have plans to come out in support of it. i will have my own plan when i go to washington to save medicare and save social security. >> you might have heard that answer before, tom, on eight or ten or 15 different issues. when you go to washington you vote -- i know this sounds like washingtonspeak to josh but you actually vote yes or no. >> in a january survey for an anti-abortion group right to life, mandel checked yes next to a box asking whether he supports federal and state legislation to ban abortion. he did not check the box that supported any exceptions. the campaign says in a subsequent survey he did make it clear he supports a very narrow abortion exception. >> i do support an exception to protect the life of the mother. sherrod brown is an extremist on this issue and actually supports tax dollars to fund abortions. >> unlike josh i trust ohio women to make their own decisions about -- about their health care, period. and my opponent has the most extreme position of no exceptions, no exceptions for anything, no exceptions for rape, no exceptions for incest. there are tens of thousands of women in this country, they get pregnant from rapes every year. >> finally i asked both candidates what message ohioans would be sending to them if they split their ticket re-electing president obama and putting mandel in office or electing and re-electing senator brown for and it's producing a very close race. our white house senior advice david blouf talked about whether he expected it to be so close. >> we knew we wouldn't get the same vote as we got in 2008 so this is the race we prepared for. here's the great thing, in 13 days there will be no more bluffing. one of us is right and one of us is wrong in our position on the race. >> this morning we have new nbc news/wall street journal marist polls. tied at 48%. last month the president had a five-point advantage and the president is at the magic 50% mark. romney, though, only trails by three points at 47% all within the margin. the president has been able to stay even with romney by winning big margins with latino voters and leads among them, 63/34 in colorado and winning ready for this with latino voters in neve day by 74/23. anyway the race for colorado tighteninged. why has it become such a close race? romney has gained among key groups since we last polled a month ago by 14 points a month ago, 54/40. it's been cut in half and the president only leads by 7 points. now, the president led independents, 50-39. now, that 11-point margin is a virtual draw and romney is up a point among independents. leader of the marist poll joins me now. colorado, we sit here, we talk about ohio, lee, we talk about -- but colorado, tell me this, what was the raw vote difference between the two because obviously statistically 48/48, a total tie? >> single digits. one handful. i think what's interesting, we talked about ohio throughout the campaign as being the bellwether, but, you know, obama is sort of getting in ohio what he got last time. and that may be because of the car industry and the whole auto bailout. around the rest of the country and in these states looking add today he's not getting anywhere near what he got. ohio may not be the bellwether but the other swing states and could be exception this time to the pattern. obama is not getting his marker in these states although there's still obviously very competitive both of them. nevada, a little more favorable. >> look, i want to throw up -- i want to focus on colorado and spend our time here. what's interesting, it's hispanics versus the suburbs, if you will, romney, big move for him, denver suburbs likely voters here in september, the president led 51/44. now in this poll we have romney ahead in the denver suburbs, arapaho, skwlefrson county, 51-46 and basically the only reason the president doesn't trail when you usually if you lose in the denver suburbs you don't win the state it's this massive lead he has among latinos. >> not getting his marker among suburban voters, among women voters. when you compare it to last time where he won the state handily so doesn't have to do it this time but it is the latino voters and it is the strength he has at his base, not in these swing voters and the question is, how many are there and what's the early vote? colorado is a huge early vote state. three-quarters will vote before election day and right now they are also within one point of each other in terms of their preferences, so this just is, you know, if it comes down to colorado, not only will the time zone make it really late for us to tally, but, boy, it may well keep us push us into extra innings. >> i want to just point out the job approval ratings in both states for the president because among likely voters we know job approval and incumbent's ballot number are usually the same and look at this. it doesn't lie here. the president's job approval rating, 48% approved. 49% disapprove. that looks like a ballot test and look at nevada. 50% approve of his job, 46% disapprove. you got to -- you get this feeling that we could just go with job approval rating. wherever the president is at 49 or 50 he probably carries that state and wherever he's below 49 it'll be a total recount state if it's sitting at 48 or if it's lower than that he'll end up losing it. >> it may very well be that and we also see his right direction of the nation numbers have picked up but then ben mitt romney used to be upside down in terms of his likability. that's no longer the case, gosh, there's just so many cross currents there and that's why these states are just as close as they could be. >> all right. lee, we'll try to do a whole bucketful of polling in the last week and see how much we can get done. lee, always a pleasure. thank you, sir. much more to come on "the daily rundown." i'll take a dive into the down ballot races in a few minutes but, my man, we're doing a two qb set and we'll talk to je nchn saki and gdp is out and improving economy, still time to move voters. hurricane sandy is on course to blend with a winter storm and wreak havoc on the east coast. the latest on the october surprise that neither campaign was waiting for. but first a look ahead at the schedules of mitt romney and president obama. romney, of course, iowa and ohio today, that big speech in ames and the president, it's get out the vote interview day today. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. we'll be right back. welcome aboard! 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