In the city of north where the message is if you want Drinking Water without lead in it, you will have to come and get it. All of this has the 11th hour gets underway on a monday night. Good evening once again from our nbc news headquarters here in new york as we start a new week. Day 942 of this Trump Administration. Finds a president whos facing down ominous size of his reelection and warning signs about an economy headed for a sharp slow down. Tonight both the Washington Post and the New York Times is considering propping up a weakening economy and hold off a recessions. A temporary payroll tax cut possibly reversing some of President Trumps tariffs and a plan to reduce Capital Gains taxes. The white house is pushing back on that first option, one official is telling nbc news and we quote, cutting payroll taxes is not something under consideration at this time. We should add in a place where minds have been known to change. Trump is trying to shrug off concerns of the economy while blaming jerome powell. Our economy is strong despite the horrendous lack of decision by powell, the fed rate over a fairly short period of time should be reduced by at least 100 bases points. Phil rucker wholl join us in a moment asked trump if the white house is prepared for a possible downturn. I am prepared for everything. I dont think we are having a recession. We are doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich, i gave a tremendous tax cuts and they are loaded up with money. I saw the walmart number, they are off the roofs. Most economists say that we are not going to have a recession. Trump may also be rattled by the latest fox news polling that shows him under water with leading democratic candidates. So much so that he considers the home team. Fox is a lot different than it used to be. My worst poll has always been from fox. Something is going on with fox and i am not happy with it. The president says he does not believe foxs polls because of the size of the rally. It appears he had empty seats in his rally in manchester. Every place i go we had lines outside. I think they said 17,000 people outside that could not get in. Fire marshal closed it at a certain lefrl. Level. The arena announced that i broke elton johns record. You saw the enthusiasm. Trump returned to another favorite topic alleged voter fraud in the last president ial election, never proven. Hes pushing a new conspiracy theory. Google manipulated from 2. 6 million to 16 million votes for Hillary Clinton in 2016 election. My victory is bigger than thought. There is no evidence of that. It came shortly after a discussion aired on fox business about one psychologist research on the popular vote, research that google had refuted. Hillary clinton responded today writing this. The debunk study you are referring to was based on 21 undecided voters for context thats about half the number of People Associated with your campaign who have been indicted. The president shifting positions when it comes to gun control. Immediately after that Mass Shootings in dayton and el paso. Trump sounded readiness to support new background check laws and much as he did following the Parkland School shooting last year. Take the gun stores and go through a due process section. Well get this done in a bipartisan matter. I am not worried of 60 votes. 60 votes, 60 meaning it is so easy. It should be 100 . I think we can do meaningful background checks. I want to see it happen. I think we can bring background checks like we never had before. Annie carney reports, after discussions with gun rights advocates during his twoweek working vacation in bedminster, new jersey, including talks with wayne here is what he says to reporters. We have strong background checks right now. You go into buy a gun, you have to sign up. There are a lot of background checks that have been approved over the years. Big mental problem and we do have a lot of background checks right now. As all of this unfolds, the battle continues between the president and his former employee of less than two weeks, Anthony Scarramucci is a highly unstable nut job, i barely knew him. He was a mental break. We did not want him alive. Scarramucci was back talking about replacing trump somehow on the 2020 ticket. His entire cabinet hates his guts and most of the comments, wicked witch of the west. I am telling my fellow republicans and fellow americans, there is absolutely no reason to be frighten. We have to come together now and call this for what it is. If we do that, we do that together, we can get a really experienced republican candidate to go against some of the democratic adversaries that have already been declared. Our leadoff discussion, Phillip Rucker for the Washington Post, annie carney and bill crystal is back with us as well. A veteran at the bushs administration. Good evening to you all. Phil rucker, the president said to you in bedminster yesterday he was prepared for everything. You see so much anxiety inside the white house right now while you have the president out there declaring that the economy domestically is healthy and there is nothing to worry about. He does not foresee a recession because hes the one in charge. Behind the scenes, the advisers, Economic Team at the white house had been scrambling to come up with some plans and some measures that they can take in order to boost Consumer Confidence in order to reassure the Business World and saves off. What seems to be an early sign right now and the core of all of this is concerned as always about the president s political survival. He thinks of nothing more than reelection all the time. It is top of mind for him and the concern is that hes banking on a Strong Economy in order to win the election in november of 2020. If there is as downturn, if there is as recession or something even more devastating, that could spell defeat for the president politically. Annie, all of this gets us into the recording by your paper and phils paper about a possible payroll tax cut or other types of tax cuts. Our viewers would say, i thought this president worked through a huge tax cut before . He did, this was news that the white house immediately tried to down play later after the Washington Post reported this story. It is not presented in the oval office. It is not there yet. People i spoke with said that this was a contingency plan. Theyre looking at what the administration had done and puing all options on the table. The message here is that trumps own advisers are making contingency plans for him while he goes out there and says there is nothing wrong and no recessions and walmart sales are great and everything. The real question going into reelection can he put anything on his fed chair and on the media that hes been trying to blame. We saw last week at his manchester rally, his pitch to voter is love me or hate me, you have to vote for me because if you dont, your 401k will tank. Whats the real question for him, what will he do if that question is not valid . Bill crystal, on social media hes talking about crowd size and talking about scarramucci. As they say the whole world is watching. Our Eugene Robinson writes this. The astonishing thing is the president of the United States lets face it, raving like a lunatic, the truth is we dont have an actual president right now. We have a tire some reality show whose ratings have been begun to slide. Scarramucci came out and said trump is getting worse and people around him are getting worried. Trump confirms it and gives scarramucci who otherwise people may scour a little bit but some credibility. I am not like bill kristol, i was for trump and i wanted to work. I cant afford a seconds term. If you put the economic downturn which may or may not come but germany is already in recessions. If you put together whats going to happen in september in the senate, mitch mcconnell, seems to committed bringing up the gun bill which you reported the president is backing off on, the Election Security legislation, there will be a lot of pressure to bring up. The president wont be happy with. I think well have one or two ex congressman announcing theyre going to join in the field to challenge President Trump in the nomination. Theyll beat him presumably. That could be sort of a challenge. Thats just a challenge in a sense that it is not so 100 inevitable that everyone has a yes from the nomination from donald trump. Phil rucker, what we have as an arrangement covering this president especially while at a trump branded property like bedminster, new jersey, is the opposite of transparency of not once seen a briefing from a Briefing Room there. It has been over 100 days since we saw the Briefing Room in the west wing. Having said that, we are told now that both of your newspapers that the president had contact with people in his life who may have moved him back to the comfortable rights on things like gun control. Thats right, brian. You know yesterday evening in new jersey, we had that long q a questions about him. I asked him about gun control, what is your position on background checks. It was a week ago he says he supported powerful background checks. He thought it would be the sort of obvious next step for policymaking following the two horrific Mass Shootings in el paso and dayton in ohio. His decisions had changed over night. Sunday night into new jersey, he was saying i am not going to say anything about background checks until Congress Figures out some solutions and gets back to me. By the way, we already have these strong background checks and it is a Mental Health problem. He went on readvocating Mental Health and institutions that shuttered the United States back in the 1950s and 1960s for inhumane practice there. This is not the president seems to be warm to the idea of gun control. This is not a question of taking away assault rifles or lowering the size of magazines. This is about universal background checks to keep guns out of the hands of the mentally ill and other dangerous people and theyre supported by polling by 80 or 90 of the american republic. 94 i saw in one poll. 94 . Annie carney, the last person that talks to him gets to decide his viewpoint coming up. This is a host parkland established pattern as we said at the top of the broadcast, anny. Annie. Thats right, after parkland, he made gestures of doing something about background checks on guns. This is turn around is a familiar play book as Chuck Schumer said in a statement today, we have seen this movie before. It is a reminder that however much trump wants to say hes going to do something in a moment after a mass shooting or crisis, he gets swayed back to playing to his base and while democrats i think want to see him do something and dont want to leave the option open, maybe hell come back in september and try to move congress again to do something. They admitted at this stage in a campaign when efrl other play hes making in terms of attacking the four congresswoman of color and freshmen democrats in terms of attacking Elijah Cummings is a base play. They dont seem to fit into his play book right now when he believes it and members of the nra makes up a huge part of his base. Bill kristol, about the polling, do you believe any of it . Do you believe any of the National Polling . Is it relevant to you . Some what relevant. He does not say where hell be 1 or 15 months. I think annie mentions the attack on congressman cummings and the floor and representatives and the rhetoric about invaders and obviously terrible el paso shooting. We forget this, six weeks ago, people were not sure they thought that may work and a lot of democrats were kind of worry and hes so good at this. It seems pretty clear from the polling we have the work that it is not work. He lost some voters and i see before a couple of focus groups of soft Trump Supporters and people voted for him saying this is a little too much. A little disruption had been fine and hes vulgar, we can liver with that and some of the tweets. Now, we are talking about dividing the country with race and ethnicity. What would the second term be like . Trump looks at that and gee, this is my whole card. This is my ace and if this does not work and the economy slowing, i do think hes really worried. Our thanks to our big three to start us off. Phil rucker and annie carney and bill kristol. Coming up. The president says he does not see a recession ahead because american consumers, we heard him say it are loaded up with money. What the actual economists had to say. It is tough to beat massachusetts, the democrat 40 years under his belt. Unless you are a kennedy. Thats the drama playing out. The 11th hour is just getting underway. So i can buy from enterprise car sales and youll take any tradein . Thats right great here you go. Well, it does need to be a vehicle. But i need this out of my house. vo with fair, Transparent Value for every tradein. Enterprise makes it easy. Were on the move. Hey rick, all good . Oh yeah, were good. Were good. Terminix. Defenders of home. President trump says the u. S. Economy is doing very well. We are staring on an approach downturn. Privately trump is growing increasingly worried the economy wont look so good come election day. Though a preelection recession here is far from certain, a downturn would be devastating blow to the president. The president has been down playing a risk of something bad around the corner. The fact that the fundamentals of our economy is very strong. You know it. We have more people working in the country right now than the nations history. Before i came to the white house, they spent a better part of 20 years forecasting Business Cycles and stock market trends. What i can tell you with certainty that well have a Strong Economy through 2020 and beyond the bull market. I sure dont see a recession. We had some blockbuster retail sale consumer numbers towards the back end of next week. Sorry, hes still talking. Sorry, larry kudlow. It is time to bring out our next guest, back with us again tonight Stephanie Ruhle and host of the 9 00 a. M. And 1 00 p. M. Hours here on msnbc. You get what larry was saying. I need factchecking the Economic Indicator for us and when foreign leaders when economists and germany hear those guys we just aired, do they think it is crazy talk . They are utterly confused and as our business leaders. I spoke to a number of our executives today who says we are sitting on cash because who knows what the president s policies are. For his two top advisers, Peter Navarro to say i can say with absolute certainty that the economy will be fine in 2020 . No one could say and for larry kudlow to say there is no Economic Indicator . Larry kudlow days before the crash of 2007 said we are okay. More about historical perspective. The economy is chugging along and compares to other countries, we are doing well. Kellyanne conway is right. But we are at a 10year point in economic expansion and the way financial cycles work, they go up and down. The recession is just two consecutive quarters of economic define. According to ruban stein, we are due for a recession. We know that because rv sales are down 20 . Historically thats a recession is coming. Thats the reason the dow dropped 800 points. To say there is no signs of it is incorrect. A lot of people have their favorite industry to track. Some people like to track rvs and others look at trucking. I know some looking at sales of wooden palettes. Thats an instant indicator of plan shifting activities. If a payroll tax cut is sold to us at a solution. 130 k is the top end. Cost of good intentions. It feels good to say a payroll tax cut. Do people take the extra bump in their check and inject it back to the National Economy . You can look back to larry kudlow himself in 2011 when he tweeted the payroll tax cut does not work because we saw it during the Obama Administration that payroll tax cut at two different times to spur consumer. Kudlow made the argument that this does not worked back then. The fact they are mullying over a number of measures to keep us away from a recession is confusing again. Why would they deny there is any indicators while at the same time talking about a payroll tax cut. How are they going to pay for that . You saw Mark Sandford looking at priming the president , should we care for the deficit . If we dont have ways well pay for this, how are we going to get approved . It is exerting care over the generation that follows after you. You will affect Social Security. All of those Social Security are recipients. I think you have to be on the air in just over nine hours. Thank you very much. Thanks to Stephanie Ruhle. A politician with the last name we all know steps forward. Hes getting blow back from a top president ial contender. It must be monday night in massachusetts politics. Here is why because hes a leader and hes a fighter and hes a true progressor. Remember that right there because it is important. Elizabeth warren reaffirming her support for her massachusetts democratic senator ed markey. The kg veteran would face a primary challenge from a much younger candidate from a Famous Family that would be the young man on the right hand side o f your screen. Politico reports a mysterious july telephone poll that tested democratic rep, joe kennedy iii against markey in a head to head con fest sparked speculation about the young confirmation. We are happy to joined by Stephanie Murray of politico massachusetts play book. Stephanie, i would like to begin with you. How real is this . How close do you think we are to a decision and an announcement . Those closest to joe kennedy says hes definitely considering this race. Hes coming back from vacation the next couple of days and hell be sitting down with folks close to him, donors and advisers and really taking it serious at a hard look at this. Victoria, he has a kennedyesque modern era resume, little harvard and peace corp. And money making and now a seat in congress. Why now if youre joe kennedy, a very young man still. Everyone has a shelf life. If you are looking at massachusetts politics, these spots do not open up very often. There is no guarantee that hell have better shots. Those are urging him to run looking at the vulnerabilities of ed markey and any long time incumbent given the current rested move of the democratic electorate. We see that play out specifically here in massachusetts with the surprise primary victory with Ayanna Pressley in 2018. This is the time to do it. If joe kennedy wants to be a u. S. Senator, this may be his best shot. Stephanie, there are whispers that the double secret strategy is maybe to get a 73 years old, four decade veteran of washington by way of commonwealth of massachusetts to consider to step aside and retiring and enjoying his life. Thats brewing among the chatter in the state. You had the secret poll, you see a group of who kennedy looked at in the past to draft for the senate. The next step is for some public polling to come out in the next month or two. Kennedys poll is slightly ahead of markey and if the polling looks bad for the incumbent that may mean for him to retire. Markeys Campaign Says there is no chance this will happen. Well have to wait and see here. Victoria, when markey jumped on the green new deal, a lot of veteran democrats found it interesting. The kind of people who whispered not on Cable Television that they dont find it a serious document. They thought his support for it so quickly and loudly and publicly was of note. Number two, lets talk about Elizabeth Warren. Joe kennedy was there for her announcement. He introduced her when it came time to make a commercial, shes got to side with her brother senator from massachusetts. Well, a couple of things in the endorsement. My reporting that kennedy has kept it very close. It has not been until recently with the news i heard of the poll that even other people in the delegation were not necessarily where he was seriously looking at this. We dont know exactly when that video was cut. It was cut before the news broke that kennedy is weighing this seriously. It is hard to know exactly what to make of it. Senator warren gave some comments over the weekend if shes still endorsing markey. Joe is an amazing guy. So she clearly has great affection for both of them and at the end of the day, an endorsement like this when you have the kennedy name. He does not need the name recognition. It remains to be seen. If kennedy gets in the race and markey stays in, it certainly putting everybody in an awkward position right now. We asked both hub journalists to stick around after this commercial break. Well talk some more. Coming up, more news out of the commonwealth as the senior senator issued another public apologies for those claims she has made about her heritage when we come back. The first survivor of alzheimers disease is out there. And the Alzheimers Association is going to make it happen. But we wont get there without you. Join the fight with the Alzheimers Association. Kennedy is being honest with himself. I know that i have made mistakes. I am sorry for harm i have caused. I have listened and i have learned a lot and i am grateful for the many conversations that we had together. It is a great honor to be able to partner with indian country. Sioux city, iowa. Warren offered an apology today. President trump made clear last week he has no intention to let it go. I did the pocahontas thing, i hit her very hard. Looks like she was down and out. That was long ago, dont worry, well revive it. It was last thursday at manchester, new hampshire. Elizabeth warren drew her Largest Campaign event crowd yet. Estimated of 12,000 people showed up to hear her speak at a town hall. The outdoor kind in saint paul, minnesota. Still with us, Stephanie Murray and victoria, starting with you, 12,000 people, a lot of baseball teams would kill to have 12,000 people in the stands. Does that say anything about her ability to put that issue which has been a nagging negative for her to rest . I think it does. You know beginning of the year, there is all sorts of news stories written about how this is it. How shes not going to over come this dna test. Voters on the trail are not asking about this. And she has steadily climbing up in the polls. Stephanie, she has marketed herself otherwise as a candidate with a plan. Shes been kind of in on the joke in that way. There are democrats who worried about how broad base her appeal is and that shes going to draw audiences of mostly earnest, like minded democratic. Going out and making this apology and talking to native American People about these issues and listening to them is not to silence the president. We know the president is going to continue down this road using nicknames and terms to define her. And it is not about him. It is about getting others and broadening her appeal among other groups which is something she needs to do over the last six or seven months. We greatly appreciate to have the chance to talk to both of you on all of this. Stephanie and victoria mcgrane, thank you both for coming on as we start a new week. Coming up, the Islamic State claims responsibility for another deadly suicide bombing. This time a wedding in kabul. It is an awful tragedy. All of this coincides with trumps plan to pull u. S. Troops out of afghanistan. 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Use promo code get25 to save 25 off your first year and get a free shredder with annual membership. Call now to start your membership or visit lifelock. Com tv were on the move. Hey rick, all good . Oh yeah, were good. Were good. Terminix. Defenders of home. We are talking to the government and also the taliban, having very good discussions. Well see what happens. We got it down to probably 13,000 people and well be bringing it down a little bit more and well decide whether or not well be staying longer or not. It cant be a laboratory for terror. We stopped that. Some things will be announced over the next couple of weeks as to what happens and whos taking out and a lot of people that were taken out that were very bad. Isis and alqaida. The horrible event just this past weekend in contrast with the president s optimistic assessment of the situation in afghanistan. This is important. A terrorist bombing at a wedding. The death toll was in a dozen. Affiliate claims responsibility of the deadliest attack in the capitol this year of 63 killed and 182 wounded. Outraged afghans questioned how safe theyll be under an approaching deal between the u. S. And the taliban to end americas longest war. Here to talk about it, general mccaffrey. One of the brown commanders of afghanistan would end for us and how do you wish afghanistan would end for us. Mr. Trump did not create the mess in afghanistan but also think hes going to end up owning its tragic outcome. We got this brilliant ambassador that knows more about afghanistan than anyone. Mr. Trump said publicly essentially we are out publicly by 2020. What is there to negotiate . The taliban are also winning are now controlling more terrains than they have since 2001. The Afghan Government is fractured and corrupt. Their military is semidysfunctional. The situation looks tragic and the outcome will come soon after we withdraw. As a commander, you have made the call to parents back in the states, and if i am the parent of one of i am the parent of one the 23,000 killed or wounded in afghanistan, what do you tell me about the value of my son or daughters life, about their injuries or god forbid the end of their lives . Well, its a very difficult situation. There is a parallel here to vietnam, theres no question. Vietnam we had essentially 59,000 killed, 300,000 wounded. The war came to not. The u. S. Politically lost all belief in the outcome and we with drew and cut off the money and it went under. So the vietnam generation, which certainly includes me, were very bitter about our politicians, the media. There was a real alienation in the armed forces. Weve got millions of u. S. Servicemen and women who have fought and died in both iraq and afghanistan. So the notion that you can casually pull the plug and walk away from it, youre going to be discounting the commitment, the sacrifice, the courage in many ways of all of those troops. Just for a little context here, something i think about a lot but we dont think to say often enough. Tell our viewers how unusual the pace of deployments has been for our armed forces given the fact that weve been at it for 18 years. Well, its remarkable. You know, i dont think theres been anything like this since world war ii, which was an openended commitment. 16 Million People in the armed forces. The entire country was wrapped up in the war and committed to it, but now weve got a very small essentially cadre, 1 of the population fighting our wars. Many of these young men and women have has and the senior ncos and the Lieutenant Colonels have a dozen combat deployments. And, you know, i remind people theres over 60,000 killed and wounded in the u. S. Armed forces in iraq and afghanistan. So its been an unbelievable commitment. Theyre up to it. I think theyll stay in the fight as long as theyre asked to. To the footprint in afghanistan is now way down. Its around 20,000 nato forces. But its been a display of courage and commitment, the likes of which a country has rarely seen. And also let our viewers know, if the United States gets out, does that mean everybody follows suit . I cannot imagine anybody in their right mind staying. The United States is the load bearing institution in this war. Its our helicopter, our air force, our hospitals, our communications, our intelligence. The Tier One SpecialOperations Forces there who are in combat every night includes our allies, but basically its jsoc out of our special ops unit. So if we leave everyones leaving. By the way, i think that will also withdraw all possible Financial Support from congress. We wont be in there. We wont be facing the enemy. We wont see the results of our own investment. So i think the things going to go implode pretty rapidly if we jerk the forces out by 2020. General barry mccaffrey, sobering conversation tonight. They always are. Thank you very much for coming on to talk about it with us. And coming up, the message from a major American City to the thousands who want clean water with no lead in it. Come and get it. An update on the shame of newark, new jersey after this. Last thing before we go here tonight is the grinding urgent sad ongoing crisis in newark, new jersey. Eight miles from this studio, largest city in the most densely populated state in the union. This affects about 15,000 homes, and as weve said, theyre largely poor neighborhoods. And if you live in the part of the city where the lead in your water exceeds federal standards, meaning its poise to pregnant women, meaning it causes brain damage in your developing children, then you qualify to pick up your own water, two cases at a time at one of four distribution centers. The governor of new jersey says clean water is a right and not a privilege, but apparently that does not include delivery. Brian thompson, the veteran new jersey reporter for our nbc station here in new york, wnbc, has been doggedly covering this story. Big local news story in this area. Not very big across the country. Again today he showed us the hardship, the elderly and disabled, in some cases with disabled family members back at home who are forced to go get water, which they do largely without complaint because for them in newark nothing has been easy. We went on the city of newark website tonight curious about the bottled water program, thinking maybe we had missed an announcement that the city perhaps over this past weekend had come up with a breakthrough idea like putting the water on trucks and delivering it to those in need. Nope, nothing to see here. Waiting in the hot sun is not enough. Reengineering your household function on 16 ounces of water. Nope, you better be ready to prove you need those two complimentary cases of bottled water that youre prepared to lug back to your house in the hot sun. And we quote. Residents must show the most recent proof of residency to pick up bottled water, including a tax bill, water bill, lease agreement, utility bill, cable bill, drivers license or governmentissued i. D. Well, that will teach them. All those people from those surrounding towns who were probably planning right about now to flood into newark for free water. Having grown up just 23 miles from newark, i remember my friends were always scheming, always planning some caper just to try to get our hands on some of that free newark water. Now back to real life and death in newark. One more time, lets look at some of the elderly disabled folks in newark as they struggle to get and then live on two cases of 16 ounce bottles of water. The question for all of new jerseys Political Leadership is very simple, if this was your mom, would you stand for it . If this was your town, would you stand for it . Or would you demand better . Thats our broadcast on this monday night as we start a new week. Thank you so much for being here with us. Good night from our nbc news headquarters here in new york. Tonight on all in the fact is the fundamentals of our economy are very strong, and you know it. The white house insists there is nothing to see here. Well, ill tell you what, i sure dont see a recession. As the president all but demands emergency action. I dont see a recession. Tonight, robert reich on donald trump and the r word. Then why senator Elizabeth Warren was apologizing today. I know that i have made mistakes. I am sorry for harm i have caused. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand on what appears to be a president ial retreat on background checks. People dont realize we have very strong background checks right now. And the conservative backlash to the 1619 project on the impact of slavery in america. The whole project is a lie. When all in starts right now. Good evening from new york. Im chris hayes. Donald trump and the Trump Administration understand that