0 i think conservatives want to see not just big events in terms of big ideas but big events that grab the nation's attention. the romney campaign is frustrated because they say all the press asks them about is process but that's par for the course and true in every campaign i've ever covered, the press will talk about process particularly polls. mitt romney, conservatives are waiting for him to be big in events, big in message, big in personality. it seems like right now the campaign is waiting for him to do that in the debates. >> mark, you know why they focus on process, because there's not substance to -- you know, it's funny, in 1988 facing a more hostile press george h.w. bush never once whined about process. you know why? because james baker told the press what they were going to be following. and he told the candidate what he was going to be doing. and every week the candidate did it. the message was unbelievable. but again, going on with charles krauthammer, for six months mitt it seemed to be moving decidedly in the president's direction. let's look right now. i want you to give me your input on these states on a group of other battleground states we haven't looked at as closely. this comes from the nbc news/"wall street journal" marist poll. the president has a slim two-point lead among likely voters in north carolina. now where democrats held their national convention earlier this month, the president won this state in 2008 by less than 1%. mark, let's stop there and go state by state really quickly. north carolina, it wasn't too long ago that mitt romney had a big lead there. that's disappeared. and it's not because of the convention. >> well, i think it might be a little bit because of the convention. obviously there is the national poll as well. >> like i said, mark, it's not. go ahead. >> i'll tell you why i think it might be. the reason why david plouffe and others have been confident about north carolina and why they're in the game is they said they have the best ground game of any state. in 2008 one thing they did in north carolina, a lot of young people was use social media to inform people about how to register, where to register, and in every one of these events that the first lady does and some of the other sursurrogatesd occasionally the president they focus on telling people here is how you register. go vote now. something might happen on election day to get you distracted. so romney people have been relying on enthusiasm. they know the ground game is not going to be as big. but that is a state where if you look at 47% and you look at the convention and you look at the momentum from the convention, they may be able to carry that through. it may not be a sugar high. it may not dissipate. >> i'll tell you what. ground game strong for the president in north carolina. i'll tell you what. i say this as a republican. if we lose north carolina, it's going to be a very long night for the party nationwide. the president also has a two-point advantage in nevada, mark. this is well within the margin of error. this seems like the state that could go either way. as i said, about harry reid in 2010, usually if it's close in nevada, and i learned this from john ensign back in the 1990s, give it to the democrats, because that is one place where they can get the union voters out and if it's close, it always seems to tip in the democrats' favor. >> you got union vote. you've got hispanic vote very big there. on the other side, the governor, who is pretty popular, has not gone all out yet for mitt romney. he's endorsed him, obviously. you've got a big mormon vote there. and republicans have put a lot of their best operatives in the country in that state. so that could go either way. but that's one mitt romney must have at this point. >> all right. >> if you look at the different electoral college options and he is a little bit behind. >> a state that came into play and actually helped elect george w. bush, we hear a lot about florida but george w. bush wouldn't have been president without it. new hampshire. that's a state where mitt romney owns a home. the president right now owning a large lead again. that's changed a good bit over the past month. in all three states, mark, registered voters said the direction of the country had improved but the place where that was most significant, new hampshire. in june there was a 20-point gap between wrong track and right track. that gap in this poll is just 7%. we're seeing that time and time again. and now let's go to virginia. another important state. mitt romney loses ohio, mark. i'm sure you agree with me he has to win virginia. and a new suffolk university poll out late last night shows actually the race much tighter than it's been. president obama only added mitt romney by two percentage points. and fascinating there. so how does all of this look, mark? >> well, look. it is right to not take any single poll and make a huge deal of it but there are some state polls like that batch from the virginia poll. if you saw it in a vacuum you'd say romney is in the game. i think if he has some good news, a good first debate, i think the race will be significantly tighter than it's been and then they can move off just answering different versions of the same question every day, why are you so far behind, and have a chance to talk about things they want to talk about like the economy. but he is still behind in too many places to win and doesn't have as of today an obvious electoral college path and he is not going to make it up i don't think on the ground with enthusiasm anymore which is one thing they've been counting on. >> brian sullivan, let's bring you in as our money man. new polling from "the washington post" and the kaiser family foundations are gauging how the issue of medicare is factoring into the presidential race in three key states. i think these polls do more than anything to prove how this has been a substance free campaign on both sides. it's been a campaign according to mika brzenzski that has been a sign campaign. medicare is considered extremely important for 50% of those polled and that makes a lot of sense. voters in those three states were also asked the question, what the medicare system would look like in the future. roughly 6 in 10 said the program should maintain the current system of benefits and that number peaked at 65%. one of the most stunning numbers to me, and it is unbelievably depressing, in this age of, you know, where simpson and bowles are running around the country trying to tell americans desperately what needs to be done to save this country from falling off a cliff financially, over 70% of voters in florida said, seniors in florida said that you don't have to cut medicare to take care of the debt. why do you even say that? >> please, cut my benefits. no one is going to say that, joe. you know that. >> how about please save my country? no, no. but the question was asked, do you need to cut medicare to take care of the debt crisis? this is the largest program in america. it is unsustainable. everybody knows it's unsustainable. and most americans don't believe you have to touch medicare to take care of the deficit or the debt. >> listen, it's a numbers issue right? i'm a numbers guy. used to be 40 years ago that you had two people in america working to pay for every one retiree. now it's basically, you know, one worker paying for 10 to 20 different retirees because we've got this horrific demographic shift, 7500 people turning 60 every day. you're right. the numbers are unsustainable. what was interesting about your chart was this. i'll tell you what. the president is glad the election is only 39 days away. because yesterday kind of quietly, i don't want to get wonky, we had dismal economic data. we referenced it at the top. durable goods was terrible. boeing sold only one aircraft in august. gdp was revised down. 25% of people, i can't remember the source of the poll, basically said they'll slow down spending because of the fiscal cliff issue. things are slowing down because people, smart viewers of "morning joe" and cnbc know that we're going to get the biggest tax hike in history if congress doesn't do something so the economy is starting to really turn so the president hopes that election speeds up. because if 55% of people say the economy is the most important thing that's what's on their mind. watch out, guys. this fiscal cliff thing is a big deal. it's coming up quick. >> hey josh. so you've got business owners that for a couple years have said we're not going to invest. we're going to keep the $3 trillion on the sidelines because we don't know what is going to happen as far as regulations go. are they going to be raising our taxes? now we have a third issue, third reason for business owners to be scared. what happens with the fiscal cliff? what happens when we go over the side of the cliff? what happens when you raise taxes and cut spending at the same time? i mean, it is a horrifying business climate that's going to only cause this economy to grind to a halt more which, again, leads to the question, why is mitt romney losing? >> well, it is. the only real certainty is the fiscal cliff is not going to get decided before the election. one of the ironies is that for all this bad news if you look at consumer confidence, it actually shot up in the last few days since the democratic convention. >> right. >> so there's this weird thing going on where, you know, confidence is kind of defying the economic fundamentals in a way that helps the president. >> people are tired of feeling bad. they want to feel better. i'm struck by the fact that if we took a snap shot today, after this election you could have president obama with a second term. the democrats still holding the senate. and the republicans holding the house. >> right. >> nothing different. so why would we expect that there would be a different attitude toward the fiscal cliff or fixing these problems? will there be? i don't know. >> how about the republicans on the hill? >> i think there is an air coming out of this. though the things people complain about mitt romney we've known all along. he is not a warm and friendly guy. why people expected he would become -- i mean that in a public not a personal sense. he is not the kind of pactism le politician people have come to expect. we knew that all along. i think there is real frustration that the times, from the republicans' point of view, have not generated a bigger bump for him. >> sam, obviously you've been in ohio on the ground campaigning and you've seen the same thing there among republicans on the ground, right? >> yeah. i mean, they're trying to generate the type of enthusiasm they need to counteract what obama has been doing for five years. keep in mind obama has been in the state for five years more or less. romney was only there from may on. obama has about a hundred offices in ohio. romney has about 40. they got to figure out how to get over that hurdle. just a sheer numbers game for them right now. i went to ten offices, five romney, five obama over one day to check it out. there is a lot of enthusiasm for romney. it's there. people want to work for him. >> is it for romney or against obama? >> that is a good point. i talked to one guy and said what's animating you? he said i'm just scared about where my country is going to be. i went to an obama office and asked what is motivating you? she said i want to protect what obama has done. somewhat fearful on the romney side. >> fearful about another 40 years with this president and his policies. >> i'm not a psychologist. i wish i was but i don't know which is a greater motivator. you get a sense fear can bring you only so far and at some point you have to be for something else. >> exactly. all right. coming up, we've got former presidential candidate, former speaker newt gingrich. he's going to be with us onset. also senator mccaskill whose opponent last night said she just wasn't lady like enough. boy, that will help you with the swing voters in missouri. also former white house secretary dee dee myers and nbc news political director and soon to be former miami hurricanes fan chuck todd. up next "political playbook" and don't miss willie's week in review. it will make your weekend in three minutes. first bill karins with a check of the weekend forecast. >> it's going to be a little transition, joe. we're watching rain moving through areas of new england and the mid-atlantic this morning making for a messy, slow morning commute especially in new england. then we'll slowly clear it out for much of the weekend. look at the radar this morning. this is a large covering shield of rain from the hudson valley of new york down through massachusetts, connecticut and pushing into areas of new hampshire. so it's going to be a wet morning for the kids at the bus stop and everyone else heading to work this morning. philadelphia south wards to d.c. and even new york city, hit and miss showers and storms this morning and another round of showers late today. definitely an umbrella day. we won't see a lot of sunshine. we are going to see beautiful weather for the ryder cup in areas of illinois today. should be gorgeous around chicago up in through michigan. texas very wet this weekend. one area we do need the rain we are going to get it, does look like it could wash out some weekend plans though san antonio to houston especially saturday and then toward new orleans as we go through sunday. as far as new england goes the rain this morning will be gone for most of us as we go through the weekend with just hit and miss showers. definitely the worst of it this morning. airport delays possible new york city through logan airport. new york city wet in times square this morning. you're watching "morning joe" on this friday, we're brewed by starbucks. americans are always ready to work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout. there when you need them. helping millions of americans over the centuries. the strength of a global financial leader. the heart of a one-to-one relationship. together for your future. ♪