0 blue. thelma says that her tea set is actually better because it has red flowers, and since it's plastic, it won't break easily. but frances is clear. she wants a real one. thelma insists that her plastic tea set is better and asks frances how much money have you saved up? frances tells her $2.17. so thelma goes in for the kill. maybe she'll sell frances her set and, oh, by the way, they don't even make the one that you want anymore. frances is convinced. she goes home. she gets her money. she brings her money back, and thelma sells her the tea set, and then she says no backsies. frances walks home with her dolls and her new plastic tea set. that is in her younger sister flora tells her the tea set is ugly and that the local candy store does, in fact, sell the china tea set that frances wanted for $2.07. flowers. according to the center on budget and policy priorities, the bush tax cuts and the wars in iraq and afghanistan will account for almost half of the $18 trillion in debt under current policies. the nation will owe by 2019. the stimulus measures and the financial rescue will account for less than 10% of the debt at that time. what about the tax plan and the budget bargains that mitt romney is trying to bargain you for? well, an analysis shows that if the tax base isn't broadened, romney's plan would cut taxes by $481 billion by 2015, which would mean a $4.9 trillion revenue loss over the next decade. how do you think he will make up for that loss? in capping federal spending at 20% of gdp will require massive cuts in entitlement and discretionary programs. that means the safety net of the 47% would be in great danger under a romney administration. folks, frances' story is your story. don't just take my word for it. if in the endorsement of the presidential race from the salt lake tribune, a paper you would think would be a gimme for governor romney. it secures the republican standard bearer for his seemingly neverending shape shifting by writing this. from his embrace of the party's radical right wing to subsequent portrayals-himself as a modern champion of the middle class, romney has raised the most frequently asked question of the campaign, who is this guy really? what in the world does he truly believe? the editorial board concludes with this. "our endorsement must go to the incumbent, a competent leader who, against tough odds, has guided the country through catastrophe and set a course that while rocky, is pointing toward a brighter day. the president has earned a second term. romney, in whatever guys, does not deserve a first." indeed, instead of being talked into making a sketchy deal based on deception so that the top 1% can buy their new china tea set, we need to be patient as our economy comes back from the brink and not be talked into a bad trade. joining me now, jillian tete columnist for the financial times and christopher aiken, a professor of politics at princeton university. it is so nice to have you both here. >> thank you. >> all right. yes, i did start with my favorite children's book, but it's, in part, because as i was reading it, i kept sort of thinking to myself as i was listening to them in this debate that we were in a bargain for frances' moment, we were being told something that just wasn't accurate. >> the other met for i would use apart from the children's book, is about going on a die sxet trying to lose weight. i mean, you get sold these quick-fix solutions that tell you just pop a pill, and you will lose weight and you'll be happy. the reality is anyone knows it takes a lot of discipline, it takes a lot of time, and it takes a combination of measures. that's very important. you have to watch your weight -- have to watch your food, and have you to exercise, and you have to be organized. it's like fixing the great big problem of america's debt. unfortunately, there is no magic wand. no matter whether it's a republican campaign or a democratic campaign, anyone who says right now that we have an easy solution for these problems, frankly, is lying to the voters. >> right, because this is profoundly complicated, right, chris? in our study of american politics we know that there's this sort of truism, right? when the economy is good, the incumbent is likely to win. when the economy is bad, the incumbent is likely to lose. but what do we neen when we say the economy is good? do we mean sort of beginning to show recovery? do we mean absolutely measures? do we mean how people feel and per sea it? what is that good and bad that we're talking about in that? >> this is not an easy question, melissa. >> yeah. >> we have -- the data that we've used to look at this over the last couple of decades have been in very different times from the times we're in now, and so the question is going to be is the situation which the incumbent president inherits a disastrous economic situation, are the voters going to give him a little bit of credit for that, or are they going to do what we think they usually do, which is look back one year and ask themselves whether times are good, and that is not certain at this point. >> yeah. this inherited issue is really interesting, right? we were looking at our favorite wonk, and the sort of visual image here is very clear. the president did, in fact, inherit the financial crisis that we're looking at. mitt romney did have that great line about, you know, oh, just blame it on the last guy, but if you look at that projected public debt, the vast majority of what that debt is are those bush era tax cuts. it is the wars, and if you look at that kind of gray area underneath, that's what the debt would be if we weren't still managing those other crisises. what does that mean for the president come november? >> it means he has a very difficult position right now, because, you know, he is essentially trying to find a way to deal with the problems, which for the large part he inherited, didn't just create, and trying to get any buy-in for a sensible multi-pronged policy approach is extremely difficult in the current political polarization. one thing i want to talk about about how people perceive the economy. up until now everyone has presumed that economies were forged on the basis of gdp and broet and if the economy is growing, then people felt good and support the incumbent. if it's not growing, then they're upset. something has changed in this election, and it has been forged as much on what people are going to simply gain if the economy is growing, but what they might lose, and the question of entitlement programs is critical. i suspect that at the end of the day when people make that decision on november the 6th it's not just going to be about whether the employment rate is 7.8%, 8.1%. will the economy grow? it's also going to be what are they going to take away from me in the future in terms of my entitlements? >> i think there's such a good point, and a kind of nuanced one. it's not just will i be doing better next year than i am this year or that question, ask yourself are you better off now than you were four years ago, but will i -- you know, the whole time what i wanted was the real thing. are you willing to be patient enough to wait and safe up for the real thing or do you take the deal of saying, okay, maybe there's more money in my pocket tomorrow, but then when i retire, there's no medicare there for me, there is no social security waiting for me. how should we expect americans to discount something like that? we just -- based on what we know about how americans think about voting, can -- will they be thinking about the fear of loss more or the possibility of a short-term gain more? >> in the current climate, i think fear of loss is going to be a big issue. the other thing i would like to point out, though, is that a year that's a lot like this one is 1936, and the unemployment rate was not good in 1936, but things have perked up, and roosevelt had done a lot of things to try to protect people's livelihood in extremely difficult times. one thing that i have been amused by is that republican commentators are fond of saying this year that month one has ever been re-elected in the last 50 or 60 years with an unemployment rate like this. they carefully don't say 80 years because if they did, then they would be reminding all of us that roosevelt carried 46 out of the then 48 states in 1936. >> how do we end up in 1936 in our first segment. we have much more on this, and we are going to add some more folks to the panel. we'll get rid of the binders. i couldn't help myself. contraception coverage is not just a health issue. it's an economic issue. we'll talk about that economic. let's see if there's anything in the sugar bowl too. oh, there is. no, no, no, stop! humans -- one day, we're coming up with the theory of relativity, the next... stop, stop, stop! my car! not so much. but that's okay. you're covered with great ideas like optional better car replacement from liberty mutual insurance. total your car, and we give you the money to buy one a model year newer. learn about it at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility -- what's your policy?