0 this is a time to wait for the speaker of the house to come to him and ask for a meeting. when will that be? when the mail from folks back home continues to have angry kplat they can't get government to do anything, can't get them to open the gates of the national parks, can't get them to send paychecks, can't get them to do for what citizens have a right to demand they do. it's when those letters begin barking up the congressman's office that the gentleman or gentlelady will start to wonder if shutting down the government was as nifty an idea as ted cruz told them it would be. they will then pull aside the speaker asking if it might be possible the tea party hayride had all the fun it's likely to have this fall and time for it to head back to the barn. so stand tough, mr. president. you're already standing tall. there's nobody in the world who expects you to give into this strange kidnapping where the perp in this case instead of anything in return for this. the way that the republicans are adding demands to the agreement to fulfill their essential responsibilities. if the president were behaving the way republicans were behaving, he would say you know what? i want to attach a background check bill. public supports it. i couldn't get it through the senate, but i'm going to attach this and i won't sign a bill that funds the government unless republicans agree to that. or i won't sign a bill that raises the debt ceiling unless republicans agree to some item of mine. and he's not saying that. and democrats aren't saying that. they're simply saying that congress should pay our bills and congress should ensure that the government doesn't shut down. >> is he talking to the speaker tonight? has he spoken with him yet tonight? >> you know, i don't have a conversation right now to sort of read out to you, chris. the president did say earlier today that he would be speaking with the leaders today. so i expect that will happen. look, i think that the action who are effected by a government shutdown because a family member is losing a paycheck or they run a business that depends on a national park being open, or they have a veteran in their family who can't call veterans call center for help because it's been shut down, that they will begin to see that this is a nonsensical approach to getting our business done in washington. we ought to be able to do it in a way that doesn't effect people's lives negatively the way the republicans are taking this. >> if the speaker is able to take everything off of the bill, the continuing resolution, make it clean except for something like a medical devices thing, something to give them a face saver, would the president urge nancy pelosi to bring enough to help it carry? >> you had a big if there. the issue about the medical device tax is another effort to disrupt, derail, defund obama care. and, you know, to delay or effect the implementation of this important bill. here's the other irony. republicans used to claim they would engage in these showdowns because they were so concerned about the deficit and the debt. but you know that's become to -- eliminating that tax increases the deficit. delaying the implementation of the individual mandate significantly increases the debt. they're not even serious about this issue anymore. and he's committed to doing more as long as we do it in a responsible way. >> jay carney, press secretary to president obama. democrats may be hoping the public outrage will knock sense into house republicans. a new cnn poll shows more will blame republicans in congress for a shutdown. 36% say they'd blame obama, 46% would blame republicans. a supermajority of republicans, 66% would blame obama for a government shutdown compared to only 16% would blame their own party. and the republicans won't lose any standing with independents either. this is bad news for obama. independents are even split when it comes to blaming either part. 38% would blame obama, 39% republicans. what political incentive is there for republicans led by speaker boehner to get the government in line and get the government moving? would it be the beating from the dropping stock market we could expect to continue? the shutting down of government itself? howard fineman is an msnbc political analyst. my analysis is they've been getting lots of mail two weeks thanks to ted cruz and mike lee and the rest saying fight the president. at some point the letters from the other side which is enough already will begin and my hunch is by the time they go through the letters, we'll have negotiations going on. >> i think that's what's happening right now. the republicans got a big fat letter from the chamber of commerce today which is equivalent in some ways to a lot of little letters from people around the country. the chamber leaning very hard on the republicans not to shut the government down talking about the economic consequences. and don't forget the chamber of commerce has become much more active and conservative in recent years. they've opposed obama care, fought the president tooth and nail on budget policy. here they're saying, look, we can fight about obama care some other time. don't shut the government down. there's word late tonight as the speaker tries to bring forth yet another condition laden spending bill, continuing resolution, that he's facing revolt on both sides. he's facing a falling away of conservative support who know longer think what he's trying to do is strong enough and confrontational enough, and a falling away of support from moderate republicans who went along with the last one sort of, but are real sick of the thing now especially now that the chamber of commerce have gotten involved. i think the president's statement today was forceful and politically effective. and i sense things shifting a little here. the problem, though, is that speaker boehner is now completely lost it. he's a weak character to begin with, completely lost control of the caucus. it's not clear where he can go from here if the current plan fails which means the government will shut down tonight. >> they went from the speaker's position was shut down obama care totally. then it was shut down funding for one year. and now it's something about the individual mandate. >> yeah. it doesn't sound like that's flying. >> so he can't find a consensus. right, left, center of his party. >> right. i think that's what's happening. he may be left in the humiliating position he was in the other year where if he wants to do anything, he's got to get democratic support for it. that used to be a good thing. that used to be called bipartisanship. that's a bad thing in his universe right now, but that's where he may end up if he doesn't want the republican party to get hammered as an increasing will for shutting down the government. >> what's the end game here? could it be a generalized commitment by both sides to some near term commissioner action, entitlement reform, something that gives the republicans a home with for maybe half their members to be satisfied with. >> it's interesting you mentioned that. i was speaking to senator pat leahy, democrat, very experienced guy. he said what they should have done is put together some kind of commission. yeah. obama care's a huge endeavor and the public phase of it starts tomorrow. not coincidentally. and leahy said let's put together a commission, get the top people from each party, put them in a roo m. if ted cruz ask serious, get him in a room with some of the proponents of obama care and talk about what might need to be changed and separate that from the question of keeping the government in action. the other thing that's happened here as you well know, it used to be congress would pass individual spending bills. >> sure. they had appropriations bills. >> now they have the continuing resolution which is for the whole government. >> i know. >> and it's too attractive a nuisance and too attractive an apock apocalyptic thing. >> cruz had a lot about doing it for holding a meeting between the budget committees. then would have set the guidelines for the appropriations committee. by the way, we never had a total shutdown. back in the '80s, because we had appropriations passed on time. >> you had different pieces of it. >> howard fineman, thank you. you're an expert. coming up, the man leading republican lemmings off the cliff, ted cruz. he may be the guy that benefits the most. he's getting famous. everyone else is getting hurt. also may give the democrats their main chance to win back the house next year. and for years republicans told us it's all about jobs, jobs, jobs, so why would they do something guaranteed to hurt the american economy? unless there's a point to it politically. let me finish tonight for a sobering time. this is "hardball," the place for politics. >> republicans have said that if we lock these americans out of affordable health care for one more year, if we sacrifice the health care of millions of americans, then they'll fund the government for a couple of more months. does anybody truly believe that we won't have this fight again in a couple more months? even at christmas? customer erin swenson ordered shoes from us online but they didn't fit. customer's not happy, i'm not happy. sales go down, i'm not happy. merch comes back, i'm not happy. use ups. they make returns easy. unhappy customer becomes happy customer. then, repeat customer. easy returns, i'm happy. repeat customers, i'm happy. sales go up, i'm happy. i ordered another pair. i'm happy. (both) i'm happy. i'm happy. happy. happy. happy. happy. happy happy. i love logistics. help the gulf when we made recover and learn the gulf, bp from what happened so we could be a better, safer energy company. i can tell you - safety is at the heart of everything we do. we've added cutting-edge technology, like a new deepwater well cap and a state-of-the-art monitoring center, where experts watch over all drilling activity twenty-four-seven. and we're sharing what we've learned, so we can all produce energy more safely. our commitment has never been stronger. the house of representatives is voting right now on what's called the rule vote. that's what republicans need to pass it in order to take up their next continuing resolution proposal. and so for several republicans already voting against it. if it doesn't pass, that means the proposal wouldn't be considered on the floor which would be a big deal. we'll be right back. ber 17, 190, the wright brothers became the first in flight. 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[ powers down ] uh-oh, flobot is broken. the "name your price" tool, only from progressive. call or click today. welcome back to "hardball." i was interrupted with the news the house did pass the preliminary vote to take up the continuing resolution. which speaker boehner is presenting. looks like we're going to have a government shutdown tonight. welcome back to "hardball." where would we be without ted cruz? there's a thought. cruz spent the summer whipping up the base and make them think it was achievable. they spent the last few weeks whipping their republicans in congress often at the expense of john boehner and his efforts to find a way out of the mess. cruz has earned himself enemies in his own party. but in the vacuum of republican leadership nationally. yesterday on "meet the press" david gregory pointed out to cruz that polls show americans want the affordable care act upheld. and there's no protests in the street to do away with the law. >> the facts are becoming more and more clear. that obama care isn't working. every day that's becoming more clear. there's a reason the unions are jumping ship. one union after another is saying let me out. now, why is it that harry reid and the senate democrats are not willing to listen to the millions of working men and women -- >> wait a second. you're making an argument. i asked you a specific question based on the facts on the ground. my goodness, you spoke for 21 hours to make these arguments. you haven't moved anyone. >> the american people overwhelmingly reject obama care. they understand it's not working. the only people who aren't listening to the argument are the career politicians in washington. the great thing about the constitution is that it creates a system of checks and balances. each branch has the ability to check another. >> someone might tell senator cruz the system of checks and balances worked in this case. the law was passed by congress, the president did sign the affordable care act, and the supreme court weighed in and upheld the affordable care act. the president was re-elected on the affordable care act issue. what is cruz actually talking about here? david corn is the washington bureau chief for mother jones and jonathan capehart for the washington post. i want to start with jonathan. this is a fascinating bit of leadership. i'm not praising it, i'm noting it. here's a guy that can come in a few months as senator, he upsets the favorite in the primary and all of is sudden he's instructing the entire country on this new look at the american constitution. we pass a law through both houses of congress, they reconcile their differences, signed by both hos houses, by the president, reviewed by the supreme court. and in this case the president gets re-elected on that issue against an opponent very much against it. case closed. oh, no. there's this new procedure whereby, it's a new vote. which tries to make a complete replay of the whole game. because he says so. now, he has to be scared of someone like george w. bush with his limited abilities was able to take us to war. here's a guy with a brain, obviously, able to take us into a new version of the constitution that he has just written on the fly. >> right. and look at this it way, chris. here's a man who is able to fill this vacuum. he's been able to rise to the prominence that he's been able to rise to because there's no grownup within the republican party who's one, willing to stand up to him, and two -- >> okay. who's eric cantor, speaker boehner? are they just standing there and student council presidents without a real job? >> they have a real job on paper, it would seem. >> doesn't seem like they're effective. let me go to david on this. i don't know what to say expect this guy comes from nowhere issuing new battle orders and defines the enemy and seems to be winning with it. >> this is not wizardry here. he's not hypnotizing the gop. the reason he's getting away with this, chris, is because he has the base of the party in his arms. he's representing where the party has moved. john boehner and he rode into speakership because of the tea party. and he's been to it ever since. this is the energy out there in the party that the party leaders can't deny today, two three hours ago i ran into trent lott. remember him? he used to think he was a pretty arch conservative representing the conservative wing of the party. i said how are all your old friends in the senate? he was majority leader there. he said they're not happy. one thing they have to do -- these are his words -- they have to cut ted cruz's legs out from under him. he knows there's a battle for the heart and soul of the party. it's just that ted cruz is winning at the moment. people like lindsey graham and john mccain are in the dust. >> what is this horse whisperer, what magic words is he whispering into the ears of house republicans to have all of them follow him? jonathan? >> i think david hit on it. that is ted cruz has the base of the party, the tea party base now of the republican party wrapped in his arms. >> how? >> you know, chris, i'm mystified by it. i'm also mystified by the fact you could have a senator whipping votes in the house to defy the speaker. that gets to the big question here which is if speaker boehner were really speaker, this would never happen. you think this would happen when nancy pelosi was there? >> no. this is wonderful condescension for a senator to come over and chat with his colleagues. the national view reported on something remarkable this friday after speaker boehner tried to sell on the plan with the debt ceiling instead of a fight to fund the government right now. senator cruz lobbied house republicans to oppose their speaker. according to the national review, quote, on a thursday koun fence call a group culted with ted cruz of texas about how to respond to the fiscal strategy. sources on the call said they advised them to oppose it and hours later speaker boehner's plan fizzled. he has the power to break the leadership. >> what's remarkable here is reports today are that they might be up to 175 house republicans who would vote for a clean cr that would continue this government spending. and that there really are 30 to 60 house republicans saying no. and maybe as few as 30. and so john boehner cannot control a quarter of his party that are listening more to ted cruz than they are to him. and you having worked for tipper -- for tip, excuse me, back in the '80s, you know what it takes to be a speaker. sometimes you have to control people and make them do what they don't want to do. ba this is not over yet, but up to now, ted cruz has been whip sawing john boehner who can't put at bay those 30 hard core republicans led by people like michele bachmann. >> let's talk about what would happen here. jonathan, you first, as a student of this process. it seems it's not hard to get rid of a speaker if you're willing to go on the floor and offer up a motion, make a call, get the leadership to get it scheduled if the guy breaks with the party. if he breaks with the party, if boehner says i'm going with the majority and stop with this and we're going to get this government working again. it's my job. i took an oath to keep the government working with. i don't care what the right says. would he be challenged or knocked off as speaker? do you see that happening? >> i do see that happening. he would lose his speakership almost guaranteed. but if he were to say exactly what you just said, john boehner would be a hero. >> to who? >> to the american people because for once he is saying he's staring down the radicals within his party. he's being a leader, and he's -- if it were to happen, preventing the government from shutting down. he might not be able to do it now -- >> when is his sister soldier moment when he says you guy are ruining our reputation? >> chris, i think it gets -- it might be too late to prevent a government shutdown, but it has to be before october 17th. it has to be before the united states crashes through the debt ceiling. >> john boehner could get away with it if he thought eric cantor and others would not stab him in the back doing so. we're talking about maybe 30 members who'd put up a fuss against him, who wants him out. >> that's a fascinating analysis. >> if newt gingrich was able to put down a rebellion as he did, john boehner could with the right leadership skills -- maybe he should read chris' book "hardball." >> no. i think it's time to read julius caesar. i think his is more appropriate. >> he's been dying a death by a thousand cuts for a long time with those two deputies of his. >> i know. i don't know who to trust. i like boehner, but he seems like a guy in the old jack lemon movie save the tiger or something. thank you. up next, a look back at what happened last time the republicans in congress shut down the government. back in '95 under newt gingrich who started all this. this is "hardball," the place for politics. 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