0 pressure to force a shutdown. we're joined by two political strategists, republican john brabender and democrat bob shrum. let me begin with you, john. should we take the threat seriously? or is this being used simply for fund raising purposes? i've got to believe for someone like ted cruz every time he talks about defunding government, there's a spike in his donations. >> well, i think you're 100% right. there are republican who's just want to burn everything down to stop it if that's what it takes. but i believe you have to separate politics from policy in this case. i do not believe there will be a shutdown. it's too risky for the 2014 elections. you're right. you can send an e-mail fund raiser and get people to sign petitions. it's great to get the base engaged and it keeps the issue alive. i think it's more about that than ultimately shutting down the government. >> what is the end game? how do these individuals calling for the shutdown extricate themselves from that at the right moment? >> there's a couple potential end games. one is to change everything in the 2014 and 2016 elections. a lot of republicans believe 2014 will be particularly good. the house republicans are also looking at the possibility of doing something like a compromise relative to raising of the debt ceiling comes up we can then maybe do something about defunding parts of obama care. the most offensive parts. so there are sort of some negotiation tools. and the one thing we republicans don't do enough is give an alternative. we need to start telling the people of america what our health care alternative is and we've yet to do that. >> bob, there's no accountability as we've been saying about other issues because of hyper partisan districts. if i'm a gop member of the house and rail against obama care and say let's defund the government, et cetera, et cetera, and maybe public surveys across the country say that individual is out of step, chances are they're not out of step in their own district. >> i think that's true. one of the problems the republican party has now is that it rode the tea party to power in the house in 2010 and now stuck with all those people. i think john is largely right about what sensible republicans want to do. i'm not sure he's right about the ways out. but you have a whole group of folks who might just take this over the cliff. if boehner holds to the rule that he has to have a majority of the majority before he'll bring anything to the floor, you might just have a government shutdown. and sensible people in the republican party like john brabender, carl row think this is a train wreck for the gop. it would be the one thing that could really help democrats in 2014. >> the conservative heritage action, that's an offshoot of jim demint's heritage foundation is trying to rally republicans around the idea that government shutdown won't hurt the republican party. so the group released a new poll that surveyed likely voters in ten swing districts and here are their findings. they find only 28% would blame the republican party for a shutdown and the rest would spread the blame to democrats, to obama, or to all parties. their conclusion is a shutdown will not cost republicans the house of representatives. john brabender, will that give cover sufficient to cause gop house members to say let's really do this? >> i saw similar surveys in the 1990 and then enafter the government shutdown, the numbers changed dramatically. after it happened. i don't think that's the case. i do think, however, that we want obama care to be front and center. it's a great issue to run on in 2014. i think this is a good political ploy, but i don't think it's a good policy ploy. >> republicans who weren't around for the last government shutdown might not want -- want to listen to newt gingrich. he saw firsthand the backlash. we know how that ended. clinton won the battle for opinion. gingrich ultimately lost his speakership. he addressed a crowd of republicans in boston today and here was his warning to them about obama care. >> i will bet you for most of absolutely credit. he's going to go out and talk about obama care. i know the white house believes it's an asset. i know john believes it's a liability. we're going to find out because we're going to hash this out in the next few months into the next year, into 2016. i think, i don't call it dependence on big government. i think when people finally have health care as a matter of right and not a privilege, when you aren't in a situation where you could die or you can't get an illness treated because you don't have the money, i think that's going to become very popular and i think obama is going to win that fight. >> gentlemen, it's pretty clear president obama thinks a republican government shutdown would be bad politics for the gop. here's what he said last friday. >> i think the really interesting question is why it is that my friends in the other party have made the idea of preventing these people from getting health care their holy grail. their number one priority. the idea that you would shut down the government unless you prevent 30 million people from getting health care is a bad idea. >> john brabender, it was a great sound bite. i think an effective sound bite. interestingly, you don't often hear it from members of his own party. i'm saying the democratic leaders in the house as well as in the senate have not picked up the mantel to be supportive at least from my perspective. >> no. they're scared of it politically. that's why the democrats have delayed this longer because they're scared how it could affect the 2014 elections. we can't even get them to agree yet. some do, that people are going to see rates go up, that it's going to hurt jobs. the only thing i think the president is bringing back from the vineyard is a lower handicap than he went with. >> to the point that was made by bob shrum, you can't cherry pick those elements unless you can fund them. that was the whole purpose of the way in which this deal was structured meaning the aca. >> what's the question? the question is how can the republicans put forward a plan that cherry picks by way of example and says you're not going to be excluded for pre-existing conditions unless there's a funding source to do that and the funding source is to say, well, everybody's got to have health insurance. >> except the funding source also which this president uses more than anybody is the efficiencies of the systems. this president seems to think that there's more efficiency is there, but there is certainly some that if you build into that that people should be able to get more for their dollars not where they just have to pay two and three times what they're paying today. >> bob, get the final word in and then we've got to break. >> rates are falling, number one. number two, the reason you need the individual mandate is because as i said and john didn't reply to this, otherwise people wait until they're sick and then go buy health insurance. that system won't work. it would bankrupt insurance companies. >> thank you. we appreciate you both. coming up, blood bath in egypt. hundreds are dead and far more wounded. on a terribly violent day throughout the country. as one analyst said today, the experiment failed and the lab exploded. also, hillary, hillary, hillary. you might have thought the virginia governor's race was all about who would govern virginia but you'd be wrong. it turns out the virginia gop says it's using the race to test drive anti-hillary attacks for 2016. plus you may have heard the embarrassing story that san diego mayor bob filner has been banned from the city's hooters restaurants because he's been disrespectful to women. but what may surprise you is who's behind the move. and let me finish tonight with why bigger isn't always better. this is "hardball," the place for politics. ♪ turn around ♪ every now and then i get a little bit tired ♪ ♪ of craving something that i can't have ♪ ♪ turn around barbara ♪ i finally found the right snack ♪