0 what we expect is when the senate is back at 2:00, they may spend part of the afternoon talking about some of the substantive issues within the bill. you'll be seeing senators manchin and toomey whose names are now totally associated with the expanded background checks measure. available on the senate floor to talk to their colleagues, to try to proverbially twist arms. we expect a vote will come wednesday. so what it really falls down to, chris, are a very small number of senators who are considered on the fence. and we know that the majority of democrats are in favor of this, the majority of republicans are not. and there are a few senators who are not yet disclosing which way they will go they're studying it, they're reviewing it, they have different political circumstances as well. that could shape this. but it is a critical 48 hours for this measure. >> i want to talk about you because i think most people have made their minds up. we've got kay hagen for north carolina. saying she would vote for instead, it was a celebration in pyongyang, people brought flowers, they went to the giant statues of past north korean leaders. and it went off pretty much without a hitch. now the question here is, is thks a sign that north korea wants to deescalate the situation? that they are interested in taking stock of the last few weeks and seeing if they can go forward? and north korea is very much interested in having direct negotiations with the united states. that is something they have long wanted to do. they don't want to have their negotiations filtered through south korea, which they believe is just a client state of washington. they want to talk directly to the source and see if they can get recognition as a nuclear power. and also get food aid, get economic aid and improve their isolation and economic situation. >> richard, i just quickly, i want to follow up. we've been talking about the story, it feels like we're at it has certainly put itself at the front of the news agenda. it is getting washington to talk about it, talking about negotiations. on the minus side it may have gone too far and agitated and annoyed china. which is its big patron and you could also see north korea right now, backing down a little bit because there have been some not very strong statements, but almost any statement about north korea coming from china is perceived to be one that is serious and china has made it clear, it does not want to see further military escalation on the korean peninsula. >> nbc's richard engel live in seoul. secretary of state john kerry is heading back to the united states. andrea mitchell interviewed him earlier today about a shift in north korea. >> there's clearly a policy shift in the administration's thinking as the administration talks for the first time about direct talks with north korea. i sat down with john kerry in tokyo before he left for the u.s., about the administration's policy. mr. secretary, thanks for joining us today. you have now opened the door to north korea for directç talks,f pyongyang as we've said before, stops testing nuclear weapons, stops threatening its neighbors. what makes you think that they would take that step? >> well first ever all, i haven't opened the door. the door has been opened. those conditions are known, they're the conditions of our government, with respect to the requirements that they indicate they're living up to the obligations that they have assumed. but i think it's important that they know we're prepared to do that. i think there's been so much rhetoric and so much intensity to the missiles and to the confrontation that sometimes the message gets lost. i think it never hurts to reinforce that a nation is prepared under the right circumstances when conditions are met, to have an appropriate negotiation. >> your friend, john mccain, has said that every time different administrations negotiate with north korea, that they take our money, they take our fuel and then they go ahead and cheat. so why wouldn't that happen again? why would we trust them? >> john is absolutely correct. that has been the pattern. i have raised that issue with the chinese, i raised it this morning with the prime minister abe. how do we make this different? what is it that is going do make this different because we don't want do go through the same cycle. we don't want to simply repeat history and there has been a history of you know, just playing this game and thenç ultimately, there's cheating or a complete reneging. we are determined, i am determined to try to find if there is a different formula. and that is, that is a conversation that i specifically had with the chinese. >> it's clear that the chinese want the u.s. to be less aggressive. less confrontational. they're concerned about the missile defenses, they're concerned about the b-2s and the f-22s, shoet of force thats with deliberately aim dodd reinforce the show of strength to our allies in south korea and japan. >> i think it was very important that the united states make clear to not just the north koreans, that there were conventions fconsequences for their action, but to reaffirm to the allies that the security agreements will uphold and i think it's important to focus the chinese to the fact that if they're not prepared to put the pressure on the north and they have the greatest impact on the north, then this can become more destabilizing. and that instability is not in china's interest certainly. it's not in anybody's interest in the region. if wub goes to obld operate accord lgd to what's in everybody's interest, china needs to be more engaged in the effort. >> china did notç celebrate th national day in north korea. that's a signal. but what more do you want to see? what do you want to see that's real that means money. that means pressure? what do you want do see china do? >> i think, andrea, china has a lot of options and i'm not going to -- go through each of the things that i think china ought to do or can do. i think those are on the table, we're having those discussions. but it is obviously that china is the lifeline for north korea. everybody knows that china provides the vast majority of the fuel to north korea. china is their biggest training partner. their biggest food donor and so forth. so china has the ability here. china also has an interest in not -- you know, creating chaos and instability through whatever steps they take. we understand that. our hope is that a reasonable engagement by china can change the calculation of the north and then you actually have a difference in the way this is approached. but prime minister abe was clear today, that he believes that unless china is ready to exert pressure, and the rest of the world exert pressure, that is going to be hard to change the north's behavior. so far as we sit here in tokyo, there has been no missile launch. you don't know what's going to happen.ç what does it mean if he does launch a missile or do some other provocative act. >> let me reverse that. so far today, and we are only halfway through the day, there hasn't been an issue. and my hope is that there won't be because that would mean perhaps we're turning a corner and there's a possibility of moving in a better direction. everybody understands the negative side of what happens if there is a shoot. and my hope is, that we can move in a different direction here. china, i think, is serious about this. they understand the instability this is creating. certainly not in their interest or anybody else's interest. >> while there's no sign that north korea would accept the u.s. offer and there's going to be a lot of criticism on those who think that the administration would be too soft on pyongyang, this clearly a departure and a sign of new policy shifts to come. chris? >> we'll have more of andrea's one-on-one interview with secretary kerry coming up. including whether the u.s. might send a special envoy to north korea. plus, democratic party chairwoman debby wasserman-schultz will be here next. this is "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc. 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