Transcripts For MSNBCW All In With Chris Hayes 20201021

Pitfalls for the future of Voting Rights when all in starts right now. Good evening from new york. Im chris hayes. All right. We are officially two weeks from the end of voting in the 2020 election. We dont say election day anymore because voters across the country are already mailing in ballots and heading to the polls. Today was the first day of inperson early voting in the battleground state of wisconsin. You could tell from that footage it was chilly, and yet we saw long lines at busy polling places. Were also just 48 hours from the final big set piece event of the campaign, the last president ial debate, which will go on with a rule change. The candidates microphones will be muted while their opponent gives an initial twominute answer to each topic. Of course they made that necessary change because the president is so compulsively antisocial that he cannot abide by just the normal give and take of conversation in debate. The debate this thursday is hugely important for President Trump because when youre as far down in the polls as he appears to be, it is a chance to change the trajectory. That said, it is also, of course, a serious risk because we saw what happened last time. Im not here to call out his lies. Everybody knows hes a liar. But you agree no, youre the liar. I want to make sure you graduated last in your class, not first in your class. Oh, god. Mr. President , can you let him finish, sir . No, he doesnt know how to do that. Youd be surprised. Youd be surprised. Go ahead, joe. Listen, you agreed with Bernie Sanders heres the deal let him speak. There is no manifesto, number one. He just lost the left. Number two. Number two you just lost the left. You agreed with Bernie Sanders on a plan folks, do you have any idea what this clowns doing . I had forgotten how horrible that was. My god. I put it out of my memory. Well, that did not go over well. Not only did the polling immediately show the president lost the debate. If you look at say the 538 polling average, that first debate on september 29th and trumps coronavirus diagnosis, which, of course, happened just a few days later, theyre kind of an Inflection Point after which he loses three more points. But heres the craziest thing, during the turning the debate into this unwatchable, cringeinducing, boorish display actually arguably helped donald trump because keeping the focus on how outrageously unlikable the president is is better than focussing on his actual policy positions as compared to joe biden. Because he is even further behind on the issues. I mean, keep in mind this is a very divided country right now. We know that. We know that polarization pretty much rules everything around us. So a lot of the time when you ask voters about any specific issues, the results basically converge on whether or not you like donald trump, right . Thats why this new polling out today from the New York Times and Sienna College is so striking. They ask voters about a whole bunch of issues, some that are major news stories, for instance, a major covid rescue package. A new 2 trillion stimulus. Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell told the white house not to agree to a deal with speak nancy pelosi ahead of the election because hes concerned about dividing his republican conference. Voters also overwhelmingly support a mask mandate, 59 to 39 after watching the president who, of course, discounted the masks for months and made fun of those who wore them fall ill to the coronavirus and spend three days in the hospital. The Affordable Care act, which, of course, a trumpbacked lawsuit is attempting to try right now in the Supreme Court in arguments a week after election day. That also comes out ahead, 5540. As does joe bidens current platform, his plan to add a Public Health insurance option it would auto enroll people into it if they didnt have insurance. And that has a whopping 67 of voters supporting it. 25 opposed. Those are big, big spreads. Then there are the issues that are less front of mind right now or at least getting less coverage. The climate crisis, for example, its not exactly the top issue among National Political talkers at the moment or really either of the campaigns. Thats somewhat understandable amidst the pandemic and the resulting economic devastation. Yet, when you ask voters if they think a Biden Administration should invest 2 trillion in clean energy and other ways to help reduce the effects of Climate Change and reduce carbon emissions, by a margin of 40 points they say yes. 40 points on the signature tent poll climate plan of the Biden Campaign in a country this polarized is remarkable. Remember, in the past debate it is was very clear that both trump and pence thought that fracking was going to be one of their best issues. It was like their secret weapon. I mean, they were just talking how they love fracking. Americans love fracking. Lets frack every last frackable inch in this fracking country. It even put joe biden and Kamala Harris on the defensive promising over and over, were not going to ban fracking. Everybody loves fracking. Obviously, lets frack. Well, when it comes down to it, thats not even true. Its a wash. Voters are evenly split on one of the trump campaigns best issues, the thing they think is their wedge. Now, we know the fracking debate is actually largely about one crucial state, pennsylvania, where natural gas is a major industry. But guess what . A majority of registered voters in pennsylvania actually oppose fracking. According to a cbs news poll over the summer. So Donald Trumps ongoing negligent, malignant incompetence in managing the pandemic, the disastrous conditions of the country, 8 Million People fallen into poverty, and trumps personal odiousness are obviously the big things driving much of this campaign. But in some ways those things overshadow the fact that Donald Trumps actual policy agenda compared to joe bidens is even less popular than the way he is managing his job as president. Former democratic senator Claire Mccaskill of missouri joins me now. She is a veteran of lots of campaigns and also i think campaigns in which you got to win voters that are maybe not the most plugged in or voters who are not usually voting for your party in a state like missouri, and its just striking to me those numbers that the world of the political conversation and the world of the voter who might just be tuning in now with two weeks, theres a real challenge for joe biden just to tell people what your Campaign Platform is. Well, and the thing that was astounding to me, chris, in addition to all the issues you laid out there where biden has a commanding lead on the policies that his campaign has embraced, hes even ahead on law and order and the right. And its a wash on the economy. Right. I mean, trump is acting like the economy is frankly, his Campaign Staff thinks its the only thing that will save him. Well, right now in america just as many people think joe biden will be good for the economy as, in fact, they think donald trump was good for the economy. And and law and order, he has really tried to make law and order the whole deal and people say by six points that biden is better on law and order. And then all the other things that are the intangibles that matter so much in this election. Things like uniting the country and bringing us together. The numbers of the stimulus were really fascinating to me, too. Because obviously there is this triangulation happening right now and i find it really interesting to square republican senators stated theory about the popularity of this, which is that republicans will get mad at them if they spend all this money and theyll hate them and wont turn up to vote and what the actual polling data shows, which is it that it is an overwhelmingly popular thing in the country. Do people just tell themselves stories that are wrong about the electorate . Well, today was caucus lunch and mcconnell stood up in front of all the republicans i can see him standing there, i can see everyone sitting at their tables eating lunch and he told them, dont worry, ive told the white house no on their desire to have a 2 trillion covid rescue package for people who are really hurting right now in the country. Now, let me see if i get this straight. The republicans in the senate would not stand up to this president when he was separating children and putting families in cages. They would not stand up to him when putin put a bounty on the heads of our soldiers. They would not stand up to him when he said there were very fine people on both sides when nazis were marching with tiki torches, but now is the moment that theyre going to stand up to him and say no . When 72 of america agrees with the democrats that a coronavirus aid package is needed, not tomorrow, not next week, but today. And i thought it i thought it was really fascinating that this this is the moment that the republicans in the senate who were, by the way, on the ropes in terms of their majority. This is the line in the sand theyre going to draw. It is bizarre. Its such a great point. And it and it points exactly to a huge, crucial weakness for donald trump running this time versus 2016. Lots of polls show people perceived donald trump as more moderate than Hillary Clinton in 2016. I think thats obviously erroneous, but that was the perception that voters had. That is not the case this time, and i think in many cases Mitch Mcconnell has successfully captured donald trump in terms of the agenda. Like, repeal the aca, a big Corporate Tax cut and now stonewalling a big rescue package is the kind of very unpopular republican orthodoxy that has made them toxic to voters that donald trump now has yolked around his neck as well. Yeah, and dont forget, lets protect dirty dark money in politics at all costs. I mean, that is one of, you know, Mitch Mcconnells goto. Yeah. You know, its fascinating because i think were all pretty sure that donald trump doesnt have an ideology. Hes not a conservative or a liberal. No. The only thing donald trump is is all about donald trump. Theres nothing he really believes in other than his own mirror image that he looks at with all of his orange makeup. Yeah. I mean, i think the one thing hes genuine on is his bigotry, which i think is actually not an act. But i guess the final question for you is just in terms of when you think about biden operationalizing this to me, it just struck me that the muting thing on the debate is useful insomuch as you can Say Something like i want to raise the minimum wage to 15 an hour and say that three or four times for an audience thats tuning in that might not know that about you and polls overwhelmingly popular. Or i think we should have another rescue package or i think we shouldnt destroy the aca. Those basic pieces of information for voters still in the gettable quadrant strike me as pretty important in this next debate. And even going so far as gun safety. I mean, we know that a wide majority of americans want more gun Safety Measures in terms of background checks. And, you know, there are a lot of roe v. Wade yep. You know . Yep. And health care. All of these things are things that joe biden will have a chance to talk about, albeit only for two minutes without interruption, but hopefully hell get some of that in. Yes, exactly. You just have to string together the two minutes of muted time to deliver your popular messages. Former senator Claire Mccaskill, thank you so much. You bet. Someone who has been having meaningful oneonone conversations with voters, particularly in rural and protrump areas as part of this deep canvassing program for National Grassroots organizing network is george gail, director of peoples action and he joins me now. George, i thought id talk to you because im thinking a lot as were here at the twoweek stretch, most voters have decided. There is a small group of people that if theyre just paying attention now or havent decided tend to be people that are pretty checked out of politics. And theyre the kinds of people that your organization has been having conversations with at the door in person about what politics means. And i wonder your read from your perspective on what kind of breaks through to those kinds of voters. I think the big thing everybodys freaking out about is folks are just so anxious. So weve had 100,000 conversations with folks in rural communities. Some on the doors but more recently on the phones. And in the calls these are deep canvassing conversations that are 15 to 20minute conversations, so much longer than your traditional canvas. Canvassing. We start the calls and say, we want to talk about to you about x, y and z. And then a conversation opens up about how anxious people are, how scared they are. And what were finding people really want to know is whos going to care for them. And as we dig deep noor that conversation, its very hard to land on a conclusion that donald trump is going to care for you. Theres only three things that, like, people can tend to agree on. We got to get rid of covid. We need Economic Relief and we need a big recovery program. And, like, hes botched all three, and i think people see that, but only in this kind of conversation, this long form where we listen and where we engage folks. That point about anxiety is so profound, that that exchange, how are you, im fine, well, im not fine. Okay, im not fine either. And, again, i mean, that relates, to me, the National Referendum question of, like, are things are things great . Theyre not great. Are they good for like, how are you doing . And the answer is no. I mean, a lot of the folks were talking to that are older tell us on the call, theyre talking to a perfect stranger that theyve known maybe for 15 minutes at this point, will say i expect to die from covid. Like, thats where people are operating from. And i think if we can actually a lot of, i think, canvassing that happens in most political organizations is what we call, like, listening to confirm. Theyre trying to hear something, confirm it and then maybe jump on it. But this listening to learn, like, getting deep with people, being really curious about what theyre up against, what they want and how theyre making meaning of the world opens up some new space where voters are able to reexamine issues in ways they never would otherwise. Nobody wants to get on a call with somebody and be told theyre wrong. If you say i want to build a relationship with you and understand what youre up against, something magical opens up. And 3 of the conflicted voters we talk to doing these keep canvass method switch from planning to support trump to planning to support biden. 8. 5 of independent women voters switch as well. So we think were on to something. This is happening in background stat battleground states. We got to build on it. One thing i think has been an enormous miscalculation, and i think sometimes the way we cover it in the National Press that can exaggerate that is the president saying dont worry about the pandemic, its a liberal hoax, i got it and im fine, itsing nothing, and thi idea he can get 40 to 42 of the country to go along with it. He cant really. Ive been struck in the polling and in my own reporting and talking to people, no ones buying it. People are still freaked out about it. No. I think covid was the bridge too far for people with trump. People that, you know, we know some people voted for him because of his racism. Some people voted despite it. And i think for many people this is when trump came home to roost, was covid and his lack of ability to take it seriously and do something about it. And i would just say, when you look at rural voters, like, i expect rural voters to move toward biden in this election. Barack obama won rural voters 43 . Secretary clinton won 30 some, and i think well see a swing back to biden in this election especially because of his handling of covid. George goehl, Whose Organization is doing really fascinating work. You can listen more in his podcast. Thank you, george. I appreciate it. Good to see you. Thanks. Next, the Supreme Court move the democrats are celebrating as a win but experts are warning could set a dangerous precedent for future Voting Rights cases. What you need to know after this. Its still warm. Thanks, alice says hi. For some of us, our daily journey is a short one. Save 50 when you pay per mile with allstate. Pay less, when you drive less. Youve never been in better hands. Allstate. Click or call for a quote today. awith your next new vehicle . What kind of value are you looking for allstate. With subaru, you get Kelley Blue Books 2020 best resale value brand, 2020 lowest 5year cost to own brand, and most trusted brand for six consecutive years. No wonder Kelley Blue Book also picked subaru as their 2020 best overall brand. A trusted brand and a proven value. Its easy to love a subaru. Get 0 apr financing for 63 months on select new 2020 models, now through november 2nd. Trump took a good economy and drove it back into the ditch through his failure to get covid under control, his failure to deliver real relief to working people. Does he not understand and see the tens of millions of people whove had to file for unemployment this year, so far . The people who lost wages while the cost of groceries has gone up dramatically. Donald trump has been almost singularly focused on the stock market, the dow, the nasdaq not you, not your families. My plan will help create at least five million new, goodpaying jobs and create them right here in the United States of america. Lets use this opportunity to take bold investments in american industry and innovation. So the future is made in america. Ill be laser focused on working families. Im joe biden, and i approve this message. We live with at t and we are well past the honeocupado tom. At t, whats this i hear about you advertising a 100 Fiber Network . Only like a fraction of my customers can get that. Thats it . . You have such a glass halfempty attitude. The glass is more than halfempty you need to relax tom. Oh tom, you need a little tom time. A little tt. Stop living with at t. Xfinity delivers gig speeds to more homes than anyone. Last night on the show, we told you about how democrats were celebrating the Supreme Courts decision not to block a ruling by the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court and its decision that would allow absentee ballots to be counted in that state even if they arrive up to three days after election day. Tonight some experts are warning that if you look closely, theres a reason to worry about what four of the conservative justices on the Supreme Court are up to. So there were four justices who did want to take up the case. They wanted to take up the challenge. They did not explain why they did. There was no opinion issues. But vox points out, quote, in their briefs, the gop hones in on the word legislator, arguing that only Pennsylvania State Legislature May set the states rules for choosing president ial electors, not the states Supreme Court. Okay. So theyre saying, look, dont listen to our state Supreme Court, Supreme Court of the United States. You guys can overrule them. If the dissenting justices were considering accepting that argument, then theyre basically toying with the idea that federal courts can just step in and tell states how to interpret their own laws and their own state constitutions. Plus, its not clear weve heard the end of this particular case. As mill heser points out, quote, the gop may be able to raise this issue again after Amy Coney Barrett is confirmed, potentially securing a court order requiring states like pennsylvania to toss out an unknown number of ballots that arrive after election day. If the election is close, that could be enough to change the result. Those four conservative justices basically laid out an invitation to come back and challenge those ballots when the court is even more favorable to republicans than it is now when they have a 54 majority. One of the people who filed the Supreme Court on behalf of pennsylvania is states attorney general josh shapiro and he joins me now. All right. This is the actual federal civil procedure questions here are actually complicated, and i dont think i did a great job of explaining it just now, to be honest, as i read it, so lets just sort of set it up. You have a state constitution in pennsylvania. Right. That guarantees people a right to vote, correct . Correct. And there was a lawsuit that said, look, the current rules for counting absentee ballots, which which would not count ones that were mailed in good faith and sent before the election day and happened to come in a few days after. Thats denying people their right to vote and the Supreme Court said of your state said, thats correct. Under Pennsylvania State constitution, we have to count those votes, is that correct . Yeah, thats exactly right. Look, boil this down. This is a matter of state law that was interpreted by the highest court in our state, our states Supreme Court, and our state Supreme Court said very clearly that, you know, basically when in doubt err on the side of inclusion or enfranchisement. Unfortunately what you have are repeated attacks against our election laws here in pennsylvania by donald trump and his enablers trying to make it harder for people to vote. Trying to make it easier for ballots to be discarded. And so ive been in court time and time again defending the right for legal, eligible votes to be counted and to make sure that pennsylvanians can be heard. I think what donald trump is afraid of, candidly, is having all legal, eligible votes in pennsylvania be counted because i think hell come out on the short end of that stick at the ballot box just as he has in the courthouses where weve beat him. Hes 03. Hes got a big, fat ofer on his record. To try to make it harder for people to vote, hell continue to lose in court. So you got this appeal. The state Supreme Court says, look, yes, the state constitution of pennsylvania says we, you know, we want people to vote, we have a right to vote. Were going to try to interpret this in a way that maximizes legitimate votes getting counted, not being thrown out on technicalities. The Republican Party of your state doesnt like this opinion and they appeal it, and they ask the Supreme Court to step in and block that ruling. Right. And it looks like four conservative justices were interested in hearing that argument. Does that worry you at all . Well, it does in the sense that it kind of flies in the face of something im going to nerd out on you here for a second. Yeah. It flies in the face of something known as the purcell doctrine that says federal courts should exercise extreme caution before interfering with state election law, and that extreme caution gets even more extreme the closer you get to an election. Were not only 14 days away from election day, were already voting here in pennsylvania, more than 1 million pennsylvanians have already voted. So the idea that the Supreme Court of the United States would step on step in on what is clearly a state constitutional law question, interpreting state law, is a bit troublesome. Nevertheless, they didnt muster the votes necessary to stop or block pennsylvania election law. And so what i think that pennsylvania thats true, attorney general, but i i do feel duty bound to point out that was a byproduct of a certain math that may change, right . I mean, they they needed they needed five votes to take it up. They didnt have them. They had four. Four voted against. Its an eightperson court and donald trump and republicans have been extremely explicit they want Amy Coney Barrett confirmed for precisely this purpose. Well, look, theres no other way to spin this. She will be a Tipping Point. Its my hope that shes a Tipping Point in favor of what republican and conservative jurists have seemingly always espoused which is states rights. Right. Deferring to the states. It seems to be now sort of in fashion, en vogue for these conservative judges to not so much go along with that, but hopefully now, we dont really know because Amy Coney Barrett didnt answer a whole lot of questions in her hearing. She couldnt even say if voter intimidation was illegal, which is somewhat shocking that she couldnt even bring herself to answering that question. But hopefully if she is seated on the court and if this question comes before her, she will follow jurisprudence, she will follow the purcell doctrine. Right. She will defer to the state courts as she should. News you can use for pennsylvanias, early inperson voting is happening now. You can also mail in your ballot. You should get that in as soon as possible, right . Whatever the rulings are, either way, people should be sending their ballots early as possible. Pennsylvania you have something to say . Ill just say, chris, the enthusiasm is extraordinary. More than 1 million pennsylvanians have already voted early. More than half of those who who voted in the last president ial election have applied to vote by mail. The feeling of enthusiasm is palpable. People want to vote. People need to stop in the Trump Administration his enablers, stop trying to undermine our laws here in pennsylvania. Were having an election. People need to vote and determine the future direction of this country. All right. Lets hope that happens. Pennsylvania attorney general josh shapiro, thank you so much for coming on tonight. Good to be with you. Thank you. Ahead, experts say that one massive event in south dakota helped seed a covid outbreak across the midwest and now states are reporting record numbers of cases. The fallout after this. Itis is often unseen. Because the pain youre feeling could be a sign of irreversible joint damage. Every day you live with pain, swelling, and stiffness. You risk not being able to do the things you love. Especially in these times, its important to keep up with your rheumatologist. Schedule an appointment today. How to ensure your vote counts. Because of covid19 president ial election, its important to keep up with your rheumatologist. 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You might remember over the summer that we showed you pictures of this banquet in prague with a Table Running across the charles bridge as people in that country celebrated the end of covid. They had suppressed the virus. Now, at the time, i have to say that struck me as a dangerous taunt of fate. Though it looked enjoyable. And for weeks after that, things seemed fine in the Czech Republic and then as so often happens with this virus, suddenly it wasnt. The cases of coronavirus have skyrocketed. This chart is from the financial times. It shows coronavirus outbreaks in cases per million. Right now the Czech Republic is recording 810 cases per million and rising, outpacing every single country in the world. This is just one example of the iron law of covid. If you pretend the virus doesnt exist, you will eventually have an enormous outbreak. Its that simple. Its a lesson weve had to learn time and time and time again here in the u. S. , including the white house itself. Right now the iron law is thrashing the states of north and south dakota. Youll remember that this summer just over a month after the czechs were celebrating in prague, the surgis motorcycle rally draw more than 250,000 people to sturgis, south dakota in early august. Public Health Experts now believe that rally seeded a massive outbreak in the midwest within just weeks. Remember, this is the graph of the Czech Republic, the worst outbreak for any country in the world right now. Well, this is the graph for the outbreaks taking place in the dakotas. Right now, south dakota, the home of sturnlis, is averaging 793 cases per million. North dakotas is even higher, 918 cases per million. Which if the state were its own country would be suffering the worst coronavirus outbreak in the world right now. Dr. Joshua winn is on the front lines in north dakota. Hes the dean of the north Dakota University school of medicine and the states chief Health Strategist who has warned the state needs to take rising cases seriously. I really appreciate you taking some time, doctor. Give us a sense of how things are in your state right now. Well, give, chris, and i think you got it right, that the numbers are clearly headed in the wrong direction. You know, i think north dakotaens got lulled by that law that you were talking about where when the pandemic started we were relatively immune, and i think we let down our guard and now were paying part of the price for that. You know, one of the things i think early on, right, when you had when you had the outbreaks concentrated in fairly dense and urban areas around detroit, around new orleans and louisiana and then around the new york metro area, there was a sense that density, you know, related to this, right . That denser places were more at risk, and one of the things were seeing now, particularly in your state, neighboring states, throughout the upper midwest is this is hitting fairly rural places pretty hard. Exactly right, chris. One of the things that weve seen is that migration to more rural places. The other thing that were seeing is that there is that the population thats being affected is also younger. So in north dakota right now, the most common age group to be affected by covid19 is the 20 to 29yearold age group. And we think part of that relates to not large gatherings, as you were talking about with sturgis, but in addition, smaller gatherings where young people get together. You know, weve seen that in other places. We saw it in the summer where the first wave of people infected tend to be younger because they were engaging in more sort of highrisk behavior. But its been very hard to stop that from getting to older populations. Whats being done right now at a policy level in your state to try to contain this thing . Because we know where that graph goes, right . Weve been through this before. Yeah, well, exactly right. The real risk from covid, while it extends across the board, is in vulnerable populations. So weve been really focused on longterm care facilities throughout the state. So as you probably know, we have a very aggressive testing protocol, especially in longterm care facilities. One of the reasons our numbers are up is because were doing so much testing. Now, that is a good thing. So that we can identify who has it, who are contacts and so forth. So we are really focused on trying to protect our vulnerable populations. The older segment of the population and those with preexisting conditions. You know, one thing that really struck me this summer that sort of learned from the sunbelt outbreak, particularly in arizona, was there was a kind of, you know, it was brutal and painful and lots of people died who i think probably didnt have to, but there was a kind of thermostatic relationship between public behavior and case counts. That we did see behavior change in arizona. When when the cases were low and the and the outbreak was being seeded, people were out, they were drinking, they were hanging out with each other, they masked up and they stopped doing that when cases went up. Do you have indications of local policy and behavorial changes happens in your state to break the back of this thing . Yes. That is occurring and its happening at the local level. So, for instance, here in fargo, north dakota, where our home is, the mayor just yesterday had a proclamation about the importance of masking for citizens in fargo. There you see mayor mahoney with that proclamation. So we we believe that its really important, but especially in north dakota local influence really makes a difference. And tim, who by the way is also a physician, is well wellknove in the community, and i can assure you that for people who live in fargo hearing mayor mahoney say you need to wear a mask does a lot more than you or me saying it, chris. Oh, yeah, i wouldnt i wouldnt dane to tell the people of north dakota what to do, but im glad there are people local folks that are saying that. I guess my final question for you is, you know, one of the things we saw in these outbreaks that were in metro areas, they were places with fairly high Hospital Capacity, even if they were overwhelmed. Weve seen reductions in rural Hospital Capacity in this country for years now. Many people suggest were kind of paying the price for that now. What is Hospital Capacity looking like in your state . Yeah, so the good news is is that we are in reasonable shape as far as Hospital Capacity. That isnt to say that there arent some hospitals that are being stretched somewhat, but throughout the state we do have adequate capacity. The important thing again is to not rest on our laurels. We need to change the direction of that curve so that we dont get into a catastrophic situation where we run out of bed capacity. All right. Dr. Joshua wynne in fargo, north dakota, thank you so much. I really appreciate you speaking to us tonight. Pleasure to be with you, chris. Thank you so much. Next, it was one of the early horrors of the Trump Administration and the horror continues to this day. Tonight, nbc news reports that lawyers for over 500 Migrant Children separated from their families by the Trump Administration still cannot locate their parents. J Jacob Soboroff on the jawdropping headline next. Mina. With no heavy perfumes. In light scents youll love. New febreze light. No uh uh, no way come on, no no nnnnono only discover has no annual fee on any card. 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And those parents cannot be found. Nbc news reports that lawyers appointed to a federal by a federal judge to identify migrant families who were separated by the Trump Administration say they have yet to track down the parents of 545 children. That approximately 2 3 of those parents were deported to Central America without their children, leaving the families separated, possibly permanently. One of the top reporters on this story who detailed exactly what the Trump Administration did to migrant families in his book separated inside an american tragedy is nbc and msnbc correspondent Jacob Soboroff and he joins me now. Jacob, the group of people here at issue are a group of children taken from their parents in the very beginning of the Trump Administration administering this policy. Explain who they are and how this group is different than the later group. Precisely, chris. This is a group of 1,556 children identified by ngos, the Trump Administration and the aclu. That group has been winnowed to about 1,100. Of that 1,100, 545 parents are still effectively unreachable, is what the groups refer to them that are searching for them on the ground. When i say searching, i mean literally searching door to door, their parents, because the Contact Information that was provided was faulty. This group was separated even before the policy that came to be known as zero tolerance was in place. The socalled el paso program in 2017 and other places along the southwest border around that time as well. Yeah, this was them experimenting with this as a policy in 2017 before they sort of made it a systemic policy that created the backlash. So this was all happening much more under the radar in terms of press. What do we know about what where these kids are . Like, who is looking after them now . Theyve now been in u. S. Custody for three years . Yeah. And its unbelievable. I actually talked to an 8yearold boy from honduras who is living in Northern California with his aunt and uncle, just last night, you know, expecting this news to be filed in court today. The father is still in honduras and hes trying to get brought back to the United States. Its an almost insurmountable legal hurdle based on the terms of this agreement that was made between the aclu and the federal government. But i just want to reiterate, i mean, what these children went through has been now categorized as governmentsanctioned child abuse by the American Academy of pediatrics, as torture by physicians for human rights and it was perpetrated by the Trump Administration political officials after they were warned by career people in theless, in dhs, in the department of justice, as it was reported just a couple of weeks ago, that this policy was going to have the exact consequences that were talking about right now. The Record Keeping wasnt there. They wouldnt be able to track these families down. And here we are, as you said, almost three years later with trauma compounded if you talk to Child Health Care professionals almost on a daily basis. In terms of reuniting the families, which seems like is the ultimate goal, there are a few obstacles. One is finding the parents. I understand even if theyre found, theyre located, them being able to come back to the United States to take their child is harder than it appears, that right . Particularly for parents who were deported without their children in the original class. There were 400 or so that were deported without their children and i think 29 were brought back to the United States in this expanded class. I think there is a number that is basically equivalent to that. At this point and thats because of a narrow definition of what can be considered for reunification under the terms of the settlement agreement. And at the end of the day, i mean, its almost inexplicable that the government would be able to do this, would be able to take parents and children from one another and out of 1,100 at this point, were only talking about a handful or two. And the other thing i should point out is, chris, some of the parents have opted to leave their children with family members in the United States instead of deport them if the government is saying to them, sorry, were not going to bring you back to the United States, but that is not their choice. That is really something. My god. Jacob soboroff, great reporting, as always. Thank you. Thanks, chris. Still ahead, were just two weeks away from the election. New polling shows trump consistently underperforming his 2016 numbers in the most competitive house districts, and what that means after this. 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The latest New York Times Sienna College poll in georgia found the president ial race is tied there for the second month in a row. That is something. Trump is clearly worrying, having held a rally this past friday. Its a state trump won by more than 5 points in 2016 which now looks like a possible flip. It shows troubled down ballot for democrats as well. Lead has been slipping recently has he fights for reelection. And theres another election, special Senate Election where its a socalled jungle election meaning more than one party can run for the state. Rafael warnock pulling ahead of kelly loeffler, showing loeffler in danger of losing her seat. One lesson we learned from 2016 is that Congressional District level polls can often be an overlooked indicator of how the National Race is going. In 2016 they started to show problems for Hillary Clinton and upside for donald trump, the National Polls werent picking up. But the Cook Political Report david washerman told the washington post, this year in my 13 years of covering house races is the most consistent ive ever seen. Trump is underperforming 2016 by 8 to 10 points in most competitive districts. If he won by 3 points this time, hes probably losing by 6 this time. Its a pretty consistent pattern. Margie studies these shifts in polling and joins me now. Ive been fascinated, margie, by the various district polls that popped up. We accidespent a lot of time on polling. Im curious what your read is of the data in these competitive states and aggregate. Well, so there are a lot of different indicators to look at. The first is 2018 the big story was the house. The big story was all the freshmen, the new members, folk who is came in were new the Public Service or firsttime candidates. And typically freshman can be vulnerable the first time they run for reelection. Were not seeing that this time. Youre seeing a lot of folks like abigail spam burger or shah reese davids, speem who won their races in battleground or republican leaning areas have seemed comfortable. Thats the first sign democrats are dog well in the house. You have places where democrats can make inroads like texas. There are districts all around the state. And thats connected to the battleground you know, the potential battleground of texas, whether its a president ial, senate r ostate legislature which is also up for grabs. So, thats a new surge in attention to texas. If you look at how candidates are doing, the strength of kand dots who have been recruited, the kinds of opponents theyre drawing. All of that shows the strength across the field for democrats. Is there a through line here . It seems to me that there were a lot of sort of romney, clinton the sort of 2018 hotspots were these romneyclinton seats and areas around them. They tended to be relatively affluent and relatively white and relatively and quite educated and in the suburbs of metro areas, the huge Orange County sweep, the lucy mcbaths seat in georgia and the atlanta suburbs. Is that the trend line . Theres still a bunch of seats left on the table there that fit that kind of profile. Is that what were seeing the most kind of biden over trump overperformance . You know, theres some of that. There are some races that were a little close last time around that are maybe in play this time around. So, theres another georgia congressional seat, georgia 7. So, thats a very diverse district. Thats an open seat. Theres ohio 1 which has a high africanamerican population. So, there are some districts that have all kinds of different profiles. I think the through line is that trump is vulnerable as you started, hes vulnerable across the board. Hes lost ground with a variety of groups. There continues to be a gender gap, an education gap, an age gap that hasnt really improved in any one direction. It has all moved all of those groups have moved in kind of similar numbers from 16 to 20 and to the democratic side. Its interesting you say that because a lot of times when we talk about political coalitions and demographics of polling, theres this kind of trade off idea of this person is going to do better with this constituency. A lot of times, candidates, one way to do better is to do a little better with a bunch of different people. Right now that looks like the biden recipe more or less. Hes doing better at the margins with a whole bunch of different subconstituencies. Do you think thats a fair characterization . Yes, exactly. Right. So, its not there isnt this supersecret group and if you just get all of them then you can lose some other folks. There are of course differences across different demographics. But ultimately you have joe biden is overperforming or increasing his performance across a variety of different audiences, even if there are some groups he does better than others, trump is losing ground across the board with all kinds of different audiences. So, its a sign of the fundamentals of where the electorate is this cycle and it is something that house races house candidates are going to have a hard time overcoming or running ahead of. Theyre going to have a hard time getting beyond whatever the national climate. Is. A lot of people are traumatized from 2016 understandably. They look at the pennsylvania polling average and the michigan polling average and it was off. It was quite off cat strofically in terms of the outcome. Are you confident that polling is better this time around, particularly not the National Number which came close actually capturing Hillary Clinton but the statewide polling . Well, i think as an industry theres the public polling, which people obviously in the public spent spend a lot of time looking at. But the Polling Industry has really spent a lot of time adjusting to post16 and just adjusting to changes in how we reach people. Youre seeing more multimodal surveys, change in the way people look at education. That was one of the big take aways, more qualitative even in covid times. Were doing zoom focus groups. So, you see, i think a lot of changes that are happening really across the board as a way to adjust for that. And you know certainly theres a lot of consistency in what everybodys seeing both internal, public, data and also what the republican side is indicating. Margie, thank you so much for your time. The Rachel Maddow show starts right now. Good evening rachel. Good evening, chris. Thanks for joining us this hour. Two weeks from today is election day. Whats your plan . Have you voted already . Susan and i voted this weekend. It felt great. If you havent voted already, do you have a specific granular plan about how you are going to get your vote cast . Now is the time. No time to spare. Now is the time to figure that out. Even if your plan is to vote on election day, you need a plan and a back up plan in t