Chris Hayes discusses the days top news. Deliberating three days after this. I think its very sad what theyve done to paul manafort. Thank you very much. When all in starts right now. Good evening from new york, im chris hayes. The president appears to be terrified he has a quote rat in his midst. Inside the white house. That i should be clear, thats his word. Rat. Its not the kind of language we are used to hearing from the president of the United States who is, of course, entrusted by our constitution when suring the nations laws are faithfully executed and who is responsible for appointing our most senior Law Enforcement officers. Youd expect to hear that word in a very different context. Your uncle was a rat. Sit down, sit down. Your uncle was a rat and now hes in the witness protection program. Thats my fathers brother youre talking about. Now the president is assuring
the country not that he has obeyed and upheld the law but that he does not hire snitchs. Tweeting the naming North Korea Times wrote a fake piece today implying that because White House Counsel Don Mcgahn was giving hours of testimony to the special council, he must be a john dean type. Reporter i have nothing to hide the president referring to nixon white House Counsel john dean credited with breaking the whesle and ultimately leading to his undoing. Thats how the president responded to the new york blockbuster this weekend, don mcghan has been cooperating for months, participating in at least three voluntary interviews over a remarkable 30 hours. Its jaw developing news, a Huge Development in the probe, examining whether the president , himself, obstructed justice or might have done other this engs that exceeded his powers. Mcgahn, the president tut put i. He is driving trumps successful efforts to fill the courts with conservative judges. That, includes, okay, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh mcgahn escorted to capitol hill today. Though reporters were interested in a different topic. Why did you take so long to the Special Counsel, mr. Mcgahn. Were you afraid the president would betray you . Do you regret that decision . Will you continue to comploo i . Have you briefed the white house on everything you told the Special Counsel . Mcgahn has been involved in most of the key events in muellers Obstruction Probe as far as we know, including Michael Flynns early ouster of the white house and getting Jeff Sessions to recuse himself the firing of james comey. It was mcgahn you will recall according to times who
threatened to have mueller fired, in fact, ordered him to do so. The times lays out how se is controlling the investigation. He kaugsd investigators that he never saw the president Go Beyond Highs legal authorities. Its not clear past or present has a real grasp of what mcgahn toll muellers team. We have a good sense, obviously, of what mr. Mcgahn testified to i can figure it out. How do say that good sense . Are you debriefed until. No, mr. Dowd has a good sense of it. He talked to him at the time. You dont know 100 of what he testified to, mr. Mueller . I think that through john dowd, we have have a a pretty good sense, john dowd said yesterday, ill use his words, mcgahn was a strong witness for the president. I dont teed to know much more than that. This teams to be cleared up. While the president agonizing of
what he called a rat inside the white house, although he says he wasnt one, his former employee Michael Cohen is about to face charges for 20 million in bank fraud, his Attorney Says hes been in up the with, you guessed it, howard dean on how to flip on the president the jury deliberates over paul manafort, theyre still deliberating they ended deliberation today the president publicly defended manafort and attacked the prosecution, which certainly looks a lot like an attempt to taint the jury pool. Now, get this, the president threatening to go further, telling reuters, he has chosen not to be involved in the mueller probe, but is totally allowed to be if he wanted to ive decided to stay out, now i dont have to, i could do whatever, i could run it. I am joined be aformer associate white House Counsel under president obama and executive
director of protect Democracy Now and a reporter for the washington post. Carol, have you news about don mcgahn or what he has been saying to Robert Mueller what have you learned in. So im going to be a little contrary here, chris, say i see where the president is coming from when he says this is a bit old news, my colleague, bob costa and i wrote in november when don mcgahn went before bob muellers interview team, sat down with verdicts two days straight so people have known for a long time that don mcgahn was cooperating with the investigation, that everyone who was in the white house was encouraged to voluntarily be engaged in these interviews. Now what we do know now is that after the week stories, by the times don mcgahns attorney has alerted and assured trumps own legal team that don mcgahn provided no information that was incriminating to the president , did not incriminate him. In fact, don mcgahns lawyer was
this story . Well, one things thats challenging when you are a lawyer, in the white house for that matter, you essentially are trying to serve two clients at every given moment. Are you serving the office of the presidency and you are serving the american public. Youve got to balance those two interestsle. Now, Unmost Presidenunder most president , its you have to be challenging, theyre dealing with the president who serves neither necessarily the public or the office of the presidency. Hes trying to steve the interests of donald j. Trump personally and seems to be expecting his staff to do that as well. What i make of the mcgahn interview, mcgahn is recognizing the last time his staff send him personally was Richard Nixon and john dean served four months in prison. Mcgahn is what is the course for me that avoids that as the staff
staffers. Lets get all the documents released. Lets sends them all On Over To Mueller and let him sort through this there were two reasons they did that. One was they believed very strongly in a 1990 case a ruling, which a clinton era case, which basically said you cant force the president to sit down for an interview, if you have all information you need from other sources. Voilla, all the staffers, all those records. Well, now its looking pretty smart to have done what they did in the sense that, trump doesnt want to sit down or at least trumps lawyers at this moment dont want him to sit down for an interview, are petrified he will perjure himself by mistake or intentionally the strategy which was heavily criticized has this one nice wrinkle to it. This one nice layer. Now, that doesnt change the fact that don mcgahn hated this strategy from day one. He thought it was dangerous for
exactly the reason i has pointed out this rule has two special duties. You are representing the office of the president and are you representing the president. If you are sitting in all these private meetings and some investigator gets to quiz you about everything the president said to you, thats, you know, potentially exploysive. He didnt want that to happen. Quickly, let me ask you this, the word rat, it really is striking to hear the president of the United States use the word rat and john dean, the whistleblower of watergate. Think about the spirited effect it has on prosecutors around the country desperately trying to enforce the laws to protect us as American Citizens from people doing harm, looking to get witnesses to work with them to prevent people literally from being murdered. Heres the president backing up the arguments of mob bosses getting people out to testify. Heres why i think the president is going out with the all out
sort of attacking not just don member gahn. Hes weak and nervous. He has thought from the beginning everybody around him was there to protect him. He wanted loyalty fro james comey, he couldnt believe Jeff Sessions would recuse himself. Now he is lashing out to try to prevent the one person that can bring him down which is this generations john dean. Thank you. For more on don mcgahns rules. And what he may so told. I am joined by a former u. S. Attorney and sherry you know mcgahn. You moved in political structuries he was a fixture. I dont know him. My personal contact with him or my lawyers was when he was trying to get many tow sign an nda too shut me up and silence me about a soup you are pac, i remember going back during the primary. But look, i think that hes between a rock and a hard place. He wants to come off like the good guy. He probably did incriminate the president maybe without knowing he did. So he has been with trump, he was the count sell for the campaign. So its not just white house chief count sell. He goes way, way back, chris. He knows from the beginning. He could be there 30 hours, theyre trying to check raw data. Thats what the february fib does. They check raw data, he could be providing information that could, in fact, Incriminate Trump but mcgan might not even know it. Look. Hes a good lawyer. Hes not a genius or a wizard. Its not a realistic expectation to sit there 30 hours and give a lot of raw data. At some point he will be giving them something they need for this case or Something Else. Again he goes back on the company where they were very, very sloppy, nobody thought theyd win the primary. So they didnt care. Other republican president. Mcgahn was in there early. His uncle worked with him regard to the casino. So there was some Family Connection in trump world beyond mcgahn being a junior republican Establishment Movement guy. Maybe he has a foot in both camps. I think he might be trying to have it both ways right now. Thats how he strikes me. Early on, chris, i think he knew he better make a phone call to mueller real quickly and get on the right side of this, but again, hes still trying to have it both ways, that itself what i finds fascinate to go see him straddle the two worlds. There is this lean in the New York Times that mcgahn and his lawyer who started to grow suspicious, because theyre being encouraged to cooperate. So they thought that maybe they were going to be, mcgahn was going to be set up as a fall guy that was part of what prompted him to agree to so much of the interviews. What do you think of that . First, think of that in the context of the question you just asked me. If hes thinking he will be made the fall guy. He must think there is possible Criminal Acttist that has occurred that he needs to give his version of. Again, its hard to say that it would have been completely exculpatory. But then, you know, second, just this whole kind of dance between representing the office of the president and donald j. Trump. By the way, i think this representation by the president that he just let him go forward is wrong. He probably won wouldnt have had a choice under Executive Privilege or Attorney Client privilege. But i think the basic point, you know, he has been in washington. He has seen history. Right. Im not going to be the rat. Remember john deans statement when he told the press, you know, if theyre fitting me for this outfit. They got the wrong guy. Unlike some of these other people, mcgahn has a future a stand income town will go to
lunches and be in future Federalist Society meetings, has done the heroic work with the Supreme Court. He doesnt want to go down with the ship. Ultimately, they ask is any guy worth going to prison for . He is saying no, Trump Isnt Worth it. Coming up, the former fixer Michael Cohen could face charges, over 20 million in bank and tax fraud. That story in two minutes. The fact is, there are over ninetysix hundred roads named park in the u. S. Its americas most popular street name. I know when did brian move back in . Brians back . He doesnt get my room. Hes only going to be here for like a week. Like a month, tops. Oh boy. Wifi fast enough for the whole family is simple, easy, awesome. In many cultures, young men would stay with their families until their 40s. Michael cohens lawyer says he has been talking with Richard Nixons former white House Counsel, john dean, who, of course, helped bring down nixons presidency, his lawyer lonnie davis telling politico, i reaped out to my old friend john dean because of what he went through with watergate and i saw some parallels. What Michael Cohen is experiencing right now according to New York Times is the threat of bank and fraud charges. Federal prosecutors reportedly
weighing whether to file criminal charges by the end of this month. To talk more about this, i am joined by the federal prosecutor in the Southern District of new york, u. S. Attorneys Office Investigating cohen and Andrea Bernstein cohost of trump, inc. Cohen gets raided. There is all this discussion about what is he being raided for . So then the times has a story saying its possible bank fraud and it has to do possibly with a Taxi Medallion Business . Right. This is something Michael Cohen has been dock for quite some time because in new york, these Taxi Medallions Pre Irish were very valuable. Gave you the right to pick up fares in new york city. That i could be worth more than a million dollars. Michael conheld a lot of them. You could kind of people and hoard and you make money off them . Exactly, like Real Staechlt can you trade and borrow money off of. Thats what he was doing. And his fornl former partner,
do with donald trump. Its a great way to flip one guy against another guy. We have done nit mob cases. You never know, you pull on that thread. You could start with a relatively obscure taxicab lawyer like gene friedland, roll it into michaelco zbln think about the Social Network if you were on the map, you start with the taxi king of new york, who the Taxi Medallion Business as you noted its a legitimate business. It tends to attract a fair amount of shadiness its fair to say. Your checker move to the president of the United States. The two checker moves from the short of shady offices in gene queens and brooklyn, the outer boroughs, he was dealing with people losing their licenses being indicted to being with the president of the United States. I think its worth keeping in mind like with Paul Microsoft he was allegedly committing these
crimes while working for donald trump. I think thats what makes him so interesting. He was a most intimate adviser, setting up deals aall over the soviet union. Thats what he is doing. So he is not some sort of random person. He is somebody right in there in the trump organization, while he may have been doing things. We havent heard yet, whether the Southern District is going to charge him. We should say, of course, cohen says, clear my family and country, not President Trump, its his first loyalty. What do you think about the time line as floated in the times article which is possibly before labor day. This is a Moment Of Truth for Michael Cohen. He has to get serious and quick. One he is in the process of cooperating. There is some evidence of that, he lawyer went from being out there to all of a sudden very silent. I noted that as well. If i was a prosecutor and
lanny davis came in i would say knock it off, silence, there is the other indicators the loyalty, he could be cooperating. If hes fought cooperating, What Todays Story tells him you need to get real and quick. You may just get charged. If you had him skating through as a witness, forget it. Its america, presumption of innocence. A million document given the Business Record of the people he has left in his wake. I would be a little stressed out if i were him. Thanks for joining us. Thank you. Coming up, President Trump pitching himself as the Law And Order president while telling the world he thinks his former Campaign Chair is getting a raw deal on 18 criminal charges. Thats next. Visit enbrel. Com and use the joint Damage Simulator to see how your joint damage could be progressing. Ask about enbrel. Enbrel. Fda approved for over 15 years. We have one to two fires a day and when you respond together and you put your lives on the line, you do have to surround yourself with experts. And for us the expert in gas and electric is pg e. We run about 2,500 2,800 fire calls a year and on almost every one of those calls
pg e is responding to that call as well. And so when we show up to a fire and pg e shows up with us it makes a tremendous team during a moment of crisis. I rely on them, the firefighters in this department rely on them, and so we have to practice safety everyday. Utilizing pg es talent and expertise in that area trains our firefighters on the gas or electric aspect of a fire and when we have an Emergency Situation we are going to be much more skilled and prepared to mitigate that emergency for all concerned. The things we do every single day that puts ourselves in harms way, and to have a partner that is so skilled at what they do is indispensable, and i couldnt ask for a better partner. We must maintain Law And Order at the highest level or we will cease to have a country. I am the Law And Order candidate. [ cheers ] donald trump, of course, loves to assert he stands for Law And Order. He was at it again today delivering a speech to celebrate federal immigration officials and making this astonishing claim. We have a little opposition called the democrats. I guess they just dont mind crime. I think we will have much more of a red wave than you will see as a phony blue wave. Blue wave means crime. It means open borders. Not good. So thats a message, blue wave means crime, trump means Law And Order. Its a curious argument from the man who just yesterday was sounding much more like a mob
boss, calling john dean a rat because he cooperated with Law Enforcement in the investigation with Richard Nixon and with a jury actively delivering the fate of paul manafort, who is accused of serious crimes, trump on friday used the bully pulpit to suggest his Campaign Chair should be set free regardless of the evidence. I think the Whole Manafort Trial is very sad when you look at whats going on. I think its a sad day for our country. He worked for me for a very short period of time. You know what, he happens to be a very good person and i think its very sad what theyve done to paul manafort. And now to brake down Donald Trumps view, msnbc credibilitior. And let me start with you, in the span of two day, you got a president saying, to the jury, basically, which is fought sequestered, you should probably
lay off my Campaign Manager who is a good guy, calling john dean a rat. Like i dont know people that refer to people as a rat. I honestly have not heard it used as a part of a schtick, ironically calling someone a rat. Then i am a Law And Order president. What do people like yourself think of that who work in the fbi. Certain laws and certain orders, not all of them. Public corruption, white collar, these sorts of things are not where he tends to focus. A Misdemeanor Entry into the country, we take your child away. A blue wave by the way, someone might tell him its synonymous with loads of cops showing up at your door. Thats another blue wave. He apparently has not heard that one. Maybe hell see it at some point or somebody on his team. I think the. Is the in terms of Law And Order, he has bragged about deregulation, hes taken thing ace way and enforced certain things he likes. He made assertion about crime, crime has been going down dramatically for the past two decades, anything involving next crime, homicides, there is no real proof to that pudding. What he tends to do is buddy himself up to military and Law Enforcement, especially at the lower ranks or local level. This is very classic of other schemes where you see people trying to actually skirt the law. Right. I think when we watch this, its interesting to watch, you will always discred id people at the federal level hes actually in charge of. Then he preys on people at the local level, which i finds kind of odd, if hes in charge of the fib february, hes in charge of the department of justice, he can fix it. He is the president. Also, Hoo Tess Person charged when acting the laws. Today he tells reuters, ive stayed away from mueller. This sounds so mobster. I stayed away, ki go in there if i. To. I can run it if i wanted to. Can he . Is that true . Its not true in the sense
that constitutional norms that have governed our country for hundreds of years would say, no. Now, if he does it, who can stop him . The answer is congress can top him. We have a mechanism for impeachment. Or possibly the courts. Possibly the courts, depending on how he does it. In the future after he leaves office a president can be prosecuted if he commits a crime like obstruction of justice, thats why nixon needed the Pard Frein Ford many years ago. Its a total subversion of the system to say the person supposed to execute the laws faithfully can undercut them for the benefit of his friends, its totally inconsistent with the notion on Law And Order, unless you pointed out in the times a few months ago, unless Law And Order means you protect your friends and go after people different from you. Natasha, as someone that follows a lot thats happened between the initial times story about mcgahn the fallout. The piece of cohen, it does feel like they continue to squeeze
and squeeze. Im curious what you make of it. Definitely. It feels like we are reaching a breaking point. All of these threads are starting to unravel. Some are starting to come back toke like the manafort trial is on the verge essentially of completing, if the jury gets back with a verdict this week. Have you Michael Cohen now who reports say that prosecutors are finalizing charges against him and of course, you have the president weighing whether or not hes going to sit down with the special count sell. Were at a precipice right now in the Mueller Investigation and its kind of the void into which the president has kind of been launching his tweets. It seems like hes getting more and more anxious about how this thing is going to play out. Of course, if the mueller, if the Manafort Trial Ends in a conviction, that is going to give mueller a lot of momentum, of course, manafort still has to stand trial in d. C. , but mueller has said he has over three times as much evidence in that trial
as he did for this one. So this one was not necessarily a Slam Dunk Case because the jury has been deliberating on it for longer than some people expected them to. The one in d. C. May well be. Okay. The Michael Cohen charges are something that the president has always been more worried about than anything else in this entire investigation. Because Michael Cohen was his longtime fixer and knows virtually everything about trump and the trump empire. So this is definitelying is that we are seeing. Its reaching a critical mass. I think the president is now panicking and making these kind of ridiculous arguments on twitter. There is also his lawyers representation. I want to play this clip. Rudy guiliani does epistomology 1010. Take a listen. When you tell me he should testify because hes going to Tell The Truth. He shouldnt worry. Thats so silly because its somebodys version of the truth. Not the truth. He didnt have a conversation the truth is truth. No, it isnt truth. Truth isnt truth. Truth isnt truth. Heres my fear about rudy guiliani. Hes not making arguments. Hes not trying to persuade someone what is he doing . I think hes trying to rally the base and rally the 40 or 45 of the people who are in the president s corner. This cant be meant to be aimed at a prosecutor or a law enforce. Its nonsensic am in that sense. So you go out with these orwellian line, tomorrow he will say war is peace and ignorance is truth and other orwellian lines, but it cant persuade anybody already in the president s corner and to make them angry about the investigation. The other part is the perjury trap. They are loving this line, perjury traps only exist if you dont Tell The Truth or tell your story, its not he said, he said. Its he said the president versus they said. Hes going to be the last one that shows up in terms of an
interview, if he ever shows up. Quickly, hes not going to testify . Hes being advised not to. He says he wants to sit down and clear his name. Politically, people will have questions what he has to hide if he does not sit down with Special Counsel, thats a peril he will have to be wary of. Thanks for being with me. Ahead, democrats are in a good position to win back the house, all things considered. How about the senate . Thats next. The most common side effect is low blood sugar, which may cause dizziness, sweating, confusion, and headache. Check your blood sugar. Low blood sugar can be serious and may be lifethreatening. Injection site reactions may occur. Tell your prescriber about all medicines you take and all your medical conditions. Taking tzds with insulins like tresiba® may cause serious side effects like heart failure. Your insulin dose shouldnt be changed without asking your prescriber. Get medical help right away if you have trouble breathing, fast heartbeat, extreme drowsiness, swelling of your face, tongue or throat, dizziness or confusion. man i found my tresiba® reason. Find yours. vo ask your Health Care Provider about tresiba®. Covered by most commercial Health Insurance and Medicare Part d plans. vo ovewhelming Air Fresheners can send you running. So try febreze one. With no aerosols and no heavy perfumes. So you can spray and stay. Febreze one. No, what . . I just switched to geico and got more. More . Got a company i can trust. Thats a heck of a lot more. Over 75 years of great savings and service. You cant argue with more. Why would ya . Geico. Expect great savings and a whole lot more. Thing one tonight as weve discussed here, donald trump never misses an opportunity to parade around Law Enforcement officers in order to boost his image as we were discussing, a Law And Order president. Almost without fail, these events have led to epic moments of awkward ness, like the time he stumbled and the teleprompter State Of The Union and gave a guy a few name right from in front of the nation. Here tonight is one leader in the effort to defend our country, Homelands Investigation certainly agency celestino martinez, he goes by cj and dj, he said call me either one. So well call you jj. I wonder if that poor guy has to pretend he goes by dj and cj. You thought that was cringe
worthy a salute to the heroes of i. C. E. , thing two if 60 seconds. When i can keep up anncr thankfully, prevagen helps your brain and improves memory. Dads got all the answers. Anncr prevagen is now the numberoneselling brain Health Supplement in drug stores nationwide. She outsmarts me every single time. Checkmate you wanna play again . Anncr prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Its softer than ever. Charmin ultra soft is softer than ever so its harder to resist. Okay, this is getting a little weird enjoy the go with charmin they wont hike your ratest foover one mistake. See, Liberty Mutual doesnt hold grudges. For drivers with Accident Forgiveness Liberty Mutual wont raise their rates because of their first accident. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Donald trump held an event at the white house today called a salute to i. C. E. And i. C. E. Canada for immigration customs enforcement. Cbp stands for were not sure in congressional black caucus. Were here for the incredible brave patriots that keep america safe the heroes of i. C. E. And cbc. Let me extends my gratitude to every Law Enforcement professional representing ice and cbc. I. C. E. And cbc. Cbc. Cbc, officers, the officers and acts of ice and cbc. A true and loyal friends of i. C. E. And cbc. Is there so during the event, trump highlighted an individual
cbc, im sorry, cvp angel an anza dua. Adrian, come here, i want to ask you a question, how did you, come here, youre not nervous, right . Speaks perfect english. Come here, i want to ask you apt that. Yes, adrian anza duo, an American Patrol agent speaks perfect english. Angel took it if stride as one must do when one comes in with our president. It wasnt totally weird or offensive at all. Celestino martinez, he called by cj and dj. He said call me either one. So well call you cj. Where are we headed right now . To see one of our clients a dad separate fareed his son. Reporter the Executive Director of the immigrant law center. Today most of her time is separating families. It turns out many ended up in the los angeles area. Some parents still behind bars. . We are going to the Ottowa Detention Facility about 90 miles outside of l. A. We have attorneys up here almost every day of the week. Reporter lindsay and other lawyers head out here on a regular basis to push back on the governments contention that parents of 154 kids didnt want to be reunited and intentionally signed documents giving up that right. You represent ten people in this facility alone or fathers separate fareed their kids and signed papers that basically said i dont want to be reunited with my kid . Yeah. So this guy his name is hos kins young. Yeah. Did he want to give up his
right to be unified with his son . Actually not. He refers to him signing this document that he didnt understand as a sin. A sin . Yes. Because he didnt know what he was signing. Its only now he is working with attorneys understands repercussions of what he signed. And people will sign because its an office near uniform telling them that they should sign this. So this is adelanto. Yes, a detention facility. Thats alfonso. Whats up . Im jacob. Nice to meet you. So even though he signed something that said i am affirmatively returning to my country of citizenship without my minor children. They say i didnt know what that men. Yeah. And they say theyve been intimidate into signing this. That they will be deported regardless and it is up to them
to decide whether they want their child deported with them or released to some Family Member here. So they said those are your only options. Are those only options . No. Ill go in to meet him. He signed this form and gave up his right to be unified with his son. We head in the and after three hours inside, we came back out. I didnt get on meet with him even though i. C. E. Knew i was coming for days. But lindsey is that alfonso did. What happened . We talked little about his son. Did you talk about the form and that he signed in it error . Did he know that i was here . He really wanted to talk to you. He wants people to know story of what happened to him and his son. Did you say he wrote a note . Did he. Can you read to it me . Sure. They are deporting me without me even knowing. I feel like the government here is treating me really bad. I feel ignored and i feel like
im going crazy. I am in an inhumane situation. This does not have a name. I fear they will deport me. It is signed by him. And it says his name. Yes. As a reminder, a federal judge gave the administration until july twoikt reunite all those families until july 26th. Three weeks ago. The midterm elections are only 78 days away. Thats coming up next. Rs. But what i do count on. Is staying happy and healthy. So, i add protein, vitamins and minerals to my diet with boost®. New boost® high protein nutritional drink now has 33 more highquality protein, along with 26 essential and minerals your body needs. All with guaranteed great taste. The upside im just getting started. Boost® high protein be up for life boost® high protein the difference you feel is a night. And day. Feel the difference at our labor day sales event, purchase a tempurpedic luxe, elite, or breeze mattress and enjoy up to 550 off. Or get a Free Adjustable base upgrade. Find your exclusive retailer at tempurpedic. Com. Im 85 years old in a job where. I have to wear a giant hot dog suit. What . Wheres that coming from . I dont know. I started my 401k early, i diversified. Im not a big spender. Sounds like youre doing a lot. But i still feel like im not gonna have enough for retirement. Like theres Something Else i should be doing. With the right conversation, you might find youre doing okay. So, no hot dog suit . Not unless you want to. No. Schedule a complimentary goal Planning Session today with td ameritrade®. I love you, Basement Bathroom of solitude, but sometimes you stink. Febreze air effects doesnt just mask, it cleans away odors. Because the things you love can stink. Introducing zero account fees for brokerage accounts. And zero minimums to open an account. We have Fidelity Mutual funds with zero minimum investment. And now, only fidelity offers two zero Expense Ratio index funds directly to investors. Because when you invest with fidelity, all those zeros really add up. So maybe ill win, Saved By Zero
gain 44 house seats, almost twice plus 23 they need, but lose four senate seats. Dave wasserman joins me to walk us through the math. It is a really, really striking way at looking at the difference between these two houses in terms of the races this fall. Its like mars and venus. The senate will be decided by red rural states where democrats on defense. And the house will be decided by swing urban states. It is possible one party could control both after this november but thanks to this geographical divergence, theres a really wide window of opportunity for a Split Decision where democrats win control of the house while falling short in the senate. Whats crazy is that no one, of all the forecasts ive looked at, ive never really encountered a person who says when you take aggregate total, that republican theres get more votes. In the senate or the house, than the democrats. No one thinks that. The question is whether the structural impediments will thwart the majority. Geographical bias of congress has never been this tilted against democrats. We went back 80 years worth of date and realized the median house and senate veets 5 points more pro trump than the nation as a whole. For very different reasons. In the senate you place a premium on small states where trump did better on average. In the house, republicans have the advantage not only thanks to democrats love to live in cities because theyre clustered there, but thanks on gerrymandering after the last census. So we think, democrats need to win 7 to 8 more votes than republicans just to break even in the house. The good news for democrats is that theyre polling 7 to 8 ahead of republicans but this is a penalty for them over the long term. When you think about this,
theyre all democrats running for this reelection in red states that trump carried. You had this amazing point about the math of the senate which is that a longterm problem for democrats. The majority represents 18 of the countrys population which is pretty wild. It is. And 60 represents 20 of the population and you have to wonder what this means over the long term. The fact the senate is even close owes to democrats having 11 red state seats. And ten of those seats are up for grabs this november. It is possible thanks to the candidates skill and some luck that has benefited them over the years, that they could hang on. If it ever breaks, if it goes republican, then democrats could get locked out of power. The senate could be answering to a group of voters that is more rural, and pro trump. What were seeing is sort of happening, less ticket splitting. Right now, theres, that sorting hasnt reached the place where it has a lot of democrats winning statewide in these states that are very red, very trump. If that goes away, you end up with this perfect sorting where you can have a locked in majority of some of the most sparsely populated, most pro trump states. Thats correct. And how would democrats respond . They badly need to expand their appeal if they want to be relevant, to continue to be relevant in the senate. But look. Over the long term, if republicans have this structural advantage, you wonder how urban
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