The senate says kushner withheld emails about a, quote, russian back door over tour. And House Republicans pass the trump tax plan. I dont benefit. New Analysis Finds that the plan saves trumps family over 1 billion. I pay as little as possible. I fight like hell to pay as little as possible. When all in starts right now. Good evening from new york. Im chris hayes. The same president who has weighed in on everything from Meryl Streeps acting to Social Media Policies of espn tonight has no opinion whatsoever on the voracity of the allegations that his partys nominee for u. S. Senate in alabama pursued and sexually assaulted between age girls when he was an adult. Reporte reporters today his Press Secretary studiously avoided taking a position on whether the
white house refusing to take a stand on roy moore is the same white house that claims that every single one of those women, every single one of the president s accusers, is lying. Obviously, Sexual Harassment has been in the news, at least 16 women accused the president of sexually harassing them throughout the course of the campaign. Last week during a Press Conference, the president called these accusations fake news. Is the official White House Position that all of these women are lying . Yeah, weve been clear on that from the beginning and the president has spoken on it. Sabrina siddiqui. You wrote today about al franken. It seemed to me like it caught democrats flatfooted at first. What was the reaction on capitol hill among democrats . Well, i certainly think that they were shocked by the initial report when it surfaced. But at the same time, as you noted, they were pretty quick to be unequivocal in their condemnation, both of his conduct, as well as their
it may not be the medias hand that forces the white house to speak out. But republicans themselves, who believe that if moore is was elected, were to be elected later this winter, that it would be a burden for republicans next year running in the mid terms. And they want him out and theyre telling that privately, i know, based on my reporting to the white house tonight. You know, that point you make there, the sort of catastrophic success of a moore win is a good point, right . That you can imagine a situation which basically every democrat running in the senate basically opts to run against roy moore as opposed to their actual opponent, because he would be so toxic in so many parts of the country, right . He would. And they believe they would have to have immediate investigations. You already have the Majority Leader calling for him to possibly be expelled from the senate. And they also know that they have a 52seat majority now in the senate. If doug jones, the democrat, wins, its 5149. You have a lot of seats on the edge right now for republicans. Look at arizona in particular,
nevada. This is a danger zone as one republican operative put it to me. The latest polling, we should say this is a really remarkable poll, this is out of alabama from fox news. It has doug jones up by eight points. Thats the democrat in alabama, doug jones, up by eight points, 5042. Sabrina, it was a very interesting moment in the presser today when Huckabee Sanders was asked about roy moore repeatedly and asked about al franken. And the Al Franken Question in normal circumstances would be red meat for the white house to go right after. And you could tell she wanted no part of it. Why do you think that is . Well, its twofold. One is because theyre refuse to go take a position on roy moore. How are you going to take a position on roy moore, who has been accused by multiple women of Sexual Misconduct, including those who are saying he preyed upon them when they were teenagers. So how can you not take a position on that, and then in the same breath or the next breath, i should say, denounce al franken and make a big deal of the story that came out
today. The other issue is, as you noted in your own monologue, this is a president who himself has been accused of Sexual Assault by more than a dozen women. Those Access Hollywood tapes heard Around The World where he bragged about groping and kissing women without their consent. And republicans on capitol hill have been unable to say why roy moore accusers are somehow more credible than Donald Trumps accusers. What is the distinction between the allegations that are being made . And just one quick note about democrats, because were talking about potentially roy moore being expelled from the senate. I dont think theyre necessarily going to move to expel al franken but face a question about what their policy is going to be. Are they going to have a Zero Tolerance policy, call on al franken to resign or create some categories for the level of Sexual Assault that i dont think thats where they want to be. To that point, sabrina, and youve covered capitol hill for a while and i used to cover capitol hill. I mean, the senate at this committee is going to be very busy and rightly so, if they start getting referrals for
Sexual Harassment. Because that is not something that that is happening on capitol hill. I think anyone who has worked there will tell you. And not just staffers. Members, as well. To sabrinas point, robert, about the president s own accusers. Im really curious. Does that factor in the thinking in this white house . Theres two ways i can see them thinking about it. We beat it. We beat the charge. Im the president. Its never going to burn us again. Or that was really close. I never want to relitigate that again. Which of the two is it in that white house . The calculation, based on numerous conversations i had, is more political than about weighing in on these harassment the broader debate about harassment and Sexual Misconduct in the country. My point is this. They dont want to be embarrassed again in alabama. He got behind luther strange, the incumbent senator. They feel if they move against moore now, and he somehow wins that senate seat, thats a political disaster for president trump, with his own base, and in a state that he considers his own political base. So im sure there is some calculation, chris, inside the white house about not wanting to wade into an unfriendly territory for the president , to say the least. But at the same time, its more politics, politics, politics, in the conversations im having. I just want to note how remarkable it is that the president s people are thinking, well, this person stands accused of Sexual Assault against a 14yearold that she rolled out of the car afterwards. He stands accused of calling up a teenager in her trigg class to try to get her to go out with him. But, you know, if we come out against him, we might lose and end up looking bad. Sabrina sadiqy and robert costa, great to have you both. Thank you. Your writing has been phenomenal, if you dont mind my saying. Sabrina brought this up and this Morning You Saw in al franken, there is this question, is he going to resign. What is the were figuring out whats the proper punishment for the particular crime or
misconduct. What do you think it is in the case of franken . Well, i think the franken case is really complicated. I have a column out now that says he should resign. And i dont say that really lightly or happily. And i see the argument against him resigning. I think is also very strong, right . This thing that he has accused is the wrong word. This thing that he did does not rise to the level of, you know, sexually assaulting 14yearolds. Doesnt rise to the level of what donald trump does. I still think that just having this even though its a false equivalency, you know, kind of having now this thing hanging over the democrats, even though i think that al franken has been such a good senator, i thought he should run for president before this. But i just this idea of kind of slogging it out in an Ethics Investigation and then waiting to see what kind of penalty theyre able to concoct. And also what kind of investigation. I mean, does the senate now do an investigation into his
presenate sex life . Right. What does that even we dont even know what that looks like. Well, it also strikes me that part of the issue here, and we keep seeing this, where theres two, theres 20. That it has been the case that one allegation, it has not been often that there is simply one allegation. Right. So my what i and i dont say this lightly, and im not convinced that im right. I can hear you working through. But i do think that maybe the best thing he could do is just say, im resigning. We have to have a Zero Tolerance policy for this. You know. And draw a real clear distinction between how the republicans handled this, rather than letting it trickle out and trickle out and trickle out. And then resigning after that and forcing everybody to take a stand and decide whether or not to defend him. I mean, its just its such a painful process. The other option is just to bowl through. And we have seen roy moore do it. I dont know if you saw that Press Conference today. It was remarkable. It seemed disassociative and totally detached from reality. I want to play what bannon said
last week about how he counseled the president to get through the Access Hollywood week, because i think its quite illuminating in terms of the roy moore book. The bezos, amazon, Washington Post that dropped that dime on donald trump is the same bezos, amazon, Washington Post that dropped the dime this afternoon on judge roy moore. Now, is that a coincidence . Billy bush saturday we got kind of a high command, and everybody went around the room and they were telling some guy is going 60 minutes and crying on ivankas shoulder and do this and do that and apologize and apologize and apologize. Said we doubled down now. Right . Youre donald trump and theyre not. Right . I said, lets go have a rally. Thats what roy moore is doing. Right. And i think you can get away with that as a republican in part because theres not a consensus, i think, around
gender equality on the right. I dont think theres a consensus among a lot of the people in alabama that its really so wrong for a 30somethingyearold to pursue teenagers, at least as long as he asks their parents permission. And if something untoward happened, whose fault was it really . You have such a different set of ethics that people are trying to uphold, even if imperfectly and hypocritically among democrats, that i think just kind of he probably can. I mean, what al franken has done here is not so terrible that he probably cant just, like, gut it out if there are no other accusations. But he does so at the risk of kind of derailing this conversation were now having about Sexual Harassment and assault and accountability. And just sort of, you know, kind of putting this cultural moment, this really remarkable cultural moment to an end, possibly discouraging other women who
have had bad experiences with members of congress from coming forward. I think it just its a really again, it becomes then this sort of just like ugly yeah. You know, thing in which this ugly mutual fingerpointing. And the moment about politicians, i feel like, were at the forefront of that and there is probably more to come on that front. Michelle goldberg. Tonight the senate calls on Jared Kushner to come clean, alleging he withheld emails they know exist about wikileaks and, and i quote here, a backdoor russia overture. That in two minutes. Voluntarily provided will show that all of my actions were proper and occurred in the normal course of events of a very unique campaign. That was Jared Kushner, the president s soninlaw and Senior Adviser after meeting with Senate Investigators this summer. Today senators Chuck Grassley and Dianne Feinstein, from each party, the bipartisan leaders said kushner did not provide all of the documents they asked for. In fact, in a letter to kushners lawyer, they write, we appreciate your voluntary cooperation with the committees investigation. But the production appears to have been incomplete. These are documents the Committee Says are known to exist, and they include but are not limited to documents concerning what the committee calls, quote, a russian back door overture and dinner invite. A December 2016 email communications to mr. Kushner concerning wikileaks, and communications with milian, be founder of a trade group. Grassley and Feinstein Say Kushner has until the 27th of this month to comply with their
request. Kushners lawyer released a statement saying in part, mr. Kushner and we have been responsive to all requests. We will be open to responding to any additional requests. With me now, Political Correspondent with business insider, who has written extensively about the trumps campaigns alleged ties to russia. First you start with the context. Jared kushner, man, just seems to be leaving a lot of stuff out of a lot of stuff. As we as we go through this year. Yeah. I mean, hes had to update his Security Clearance form at least twice, and the second time he had to add at least 100 foreign contacts he just accidentally left out the first time. 100 foreign counties. 100 contacts. He had a private email address he did not disclose to investigators which then they wanted more information about because he had testified and didnt mention anything about that. And now were learning he did not disclose these emails about wikileaks, about alleged russian back door overture. And about this guy, sergey milian, who is alleged to have played a really big role in this dossier. Yeah, who is milian . Whats his deal . So he is a belarusanamerican
and founded this Organization Called the russianamerican chamber of commerce. He has said he has close Business Ties with donald trump. Who knows whether or not thats actually true. He might have just been inflating himself for his own publicity. But he has worked for the Trump Organization in the past. There are pictures of milian and trump together. And essentially reports have suggested that milian is a source in that trumprussia dossier. That he is source d. E he essentially told an associate the kremlin was feeding damaging information about Hillary Clinton to donald trump. He was also the wow alleged source of the prostitute information. The alleged sex scandal that donald trump, you know, participated in when he was in moscow. So youve got milian now sort of tied in writing. Theyre asking about this. What does it say about what they know . Its sort of an interesting letter, right . Because theyre saying, youre busted. Presumably because they have emails from other people
knowing that he was copied on it. I think Dianne Feinstein and Chuck Grassley were frustrated. This is the reason why they released this letter to the public. They dont normally blast out letters like this. It was clearly an indication they are sick and tired of Jared Kushner omitting this very important information. And its also important to note that in terms of what the campaign knew, the contact with milian is interesting, because milian was actually telling people he was in contact with George Papadopoulos throughout the entire campaign. Huh. And through the transition. And George Papadopoulos, of course, is the one who had said that he received information from a kremlinlinked professor, sarg they had damaging information about Hillary Clinton. Including her emails. Including her emails. Which then papadopoulos may have told milian, which he then may have told christopher steele. So its all convoluted, but the pieces are starting to come together. So heres the other thing that really perked up my ears when i read this piece. Was that we sort of have forgotten about this moment. But the Washington Post reported that kushner tried to
set up a backchannel communication in the Russian Embassy. Remember this . Crazy thing that he sneaks kislyak into trump tower. He they have a conversation in which apparently he proposes, like, can we go to the embassy where we can have a backchannel communication with russia. If theres earlier intrigues about that before that happens, that would seem to maybe link something together. Exactly. So its unclear what these back channels were actually about in the emails. But what was my first instinct was that kushner had essentially followed up somehow to talk about this plan to create this back channel with russia via the Russian Embassy using russian diplomatic facilities in the u. S. Kushner says that it was to discuss syria. But the bring a piece to syria. He was so intent and so focused on bringing peace to syria. So concerned that normal diplomatic channels wouldnt do it, he thought of the extraordinary step of doing this so syria could be at peace. He felt he had to bypass the u. S. Intelligence committee in order to get this information to bring peace to syria. For an administration that wasnt even in power yet. He. Ed to go around the intelligence community, use russian diplomatic facilities. He said he did not want to use the diplomatic facilities. But, of course, the Washington Post reported that that was what happened. He said i want to know if there is a back channel already in place at the Russian Embassy that we can use to discuss this privately. So we could imagine that there might be some it sounds like there is an email out there somewhere someone has in which the idea of a back channel is floated to someone. Which means more people now about this meeting than Michael Flynn and sergey kislyak. This was produced to several people, which is something that Dianne Feinstein and Chuck Grassley wanted to make clear in their letter. Its like, we have this stuff, you didnt just give it to us. We know you have it. Natasha bertrand, thank you very much. Put money back in the pockets of average middle class americans. Today we found one lucky family that could see savings of over
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going to get killed in this bill. Im guessing you might have been skeptical of that claim. And with good reason. Nbc News Commission did an analysis of the tax bill passed today by the house, and it found that trump and his heirs potentially could save more than 1 billion if the bill becomes law. The analysis based on two things. The first is trumps 2005 Tax Return First revealed by rachel maddow. If the tax bill had been that year, trump would have saved 20 million himself thanks to the repeal of the alternative minimum tax. Also based on the assumption that trump is, as he claims, a billionaire. Because the house bill repeals the estate tax. Trumps heirs would be able to inherit their fathers wealth taxfree. It is definitely possible that his heirs dont stand to inherit nearly so much. This week, the magazine cranes reported the Trump Organization had fallen steeply in its list of the Largest Privately Held Companies from number three to
40. Following the president s disclosures to federal regulators it revealed the revenue is less than a tenth of what the firm had reported since at least 2010. So mr. President , if youre watching, we are happy to redo the analysis. It definitely seems very possible You Arent Worth anywhere near what you claim. So if you can just go ahead and send over your tax returns, i promise well get right on it. They really appreciate the military family, and it really shows. Weve got auto insurance, homeowners insurance. Had an accident with a vehicle, i actually called usaa before we called the police. Usaa was there handson very quick very prompt. I feel like were being handled as people that actually have a genuine need. Were the webber family and we are usaa members for life. Usaa, get your insurance quote today. Is now a good time to refinance . Yes Mortgage Rates are historically low. The time to refinance your home is right now. Get started at lendingtree. Com. The only place you can compare up to five real offers, side by side, for free. Our average customer can significantly lower their monthly bills. Quick. Beat the feds next rate hike. Do not miss this window. Are you sure you have the best rate . It only takes 3 minutes to find out. Go to lendingtree. Com right now. Tax bill. House republicans breaking into cheers as the bill crossed the threshold needed for passage without a single democratic vote. This is about giving Hardworking Taxpayers bigger paychecks, more take home pay. This is about giving those families who are struggling peace of mind. Its about getting this economy to grow faster so we get bigger wages, more jobs, and we put America In The Drivers Seat and the Global Economy once again. What the bill is actually about is giving a massive tax cut to corporations once in a generation and wealthy individuals like donald trump. Everyone else either gets a relatively small tax cut or somewhat amazingly, actually sees their taxes go up. Last time House Republicans passed a bill this big was in may, and the president held a big wildly Premature Party in the rose garden. Remember that . We all know how that turned out. There was wisely no Rose Garden Party this time around. As it bill must pass the senate, which, if passed would then need to be reconciled with the house bill. About we should say, passage is not a sure thing. Eight senators expressed reservations about the bill and republicans can only lose two votes and still pass it. And then theres this. Today the joint committee on taxation, the official nonpartisan analysis reported over the next decade the senate bill would give large tax cuts to millionaires while raising taxes on American Families earning 10,000 to 75,000. With me now, former u. S. Secretary of labor, robert reich, start of the netflix documentary, Saving Capitalism based on his book of the same name. I am almost amazed they have been able to pull off a huge tax cut that manages to raise taxes on some people. Im still scratching my head about how thats possible. Chris, its the big lie. You know, if you say the same thing over and over again, and you have a con man like donald trump who says lies, you know, like he eats, like he breathes, well, then people eventually are going to believe it, because theyre not hearing the other side very clearly. And the other side comes out in the joint tax committee, or the or other organizations
that are policy wonks, actually looking at the data. But when you have these big voices just saying over and over again, youre going to get a tax cut, people begin to believe it. It is one of the biggest lies of the generation. And hopefully people will catch on before theres a final vote. Well, you know, you say that it is polling relatively poorly, particularly for a tax cut which usually has the wind at its back. There are a bunch of yes votes from california republicans. I think only three no votes from that delegation. And its remarkable, because if you look at california and new york and new jersey, you look at the places that are represented by republicans, folks in high housing cost areas, folks that pay local and state taxes. Theres going to be people in those districts who have republican representatives whose taxes are going to go up. Theyre going to realize it then if the thing becomes law, wont they . Well, they will. But remember, this entire escapade, this entire tax cut, is paid back for the republican donor class. This is what its all about. Republicans are not really looking at the polls right now. They are very aware of the fact that the donor class im talking about, you know, the mercers and the rickettes and the Koch Brothers and all of the people who have invested so much in the gop. What they want is, they look at this as any other kind of development. They want to return on that investment, and the return on the investment was going to be a huge tax cut. The stock market has been going up in anticipation of a Corporate Tax cut. It has nothing to do with the real economy. It has nothing to do with whats happening to average people. Its just a big pay back for the major donors. This Return On Investment Concept is useful when you talk about major donors. These are the gop heirs. And donors that stand to gain from this. My favorite is sheldon miriam adelson, contributed 82. 5 million in 2016 alone to republicans. Thats a lot of money. But theyre looking at an Estate Tax Cut of almost 15 billion. That is an incredible turn on investment, and it goes on and on and on. You can understand why the donor class is so motivated by this. Theyre not only motivated right now, but look at over the next 30 years. The really rich billionaire and Semi Billionaire Baby boomers are going to be transferring about 30 trillion to their children. I mean, youre going to have the biggest intergenerational transfer of wealth in history. And if they can eliminate the estate tax and if they can actually wangel things so there is no Capital Gains tax, we are creating a dine at particular class in america as fast as we possibly can. It shouldnt be called the estate tax, not the death tax. We should call it the dynastic tax. On the loser side of the ledger, and i thought you would have something to say about this, because youre an academic, youve worked in academia, you teach at berkeley. Grad students i mean, so here you have Billionaire Donors the Adelsons Stand to gain about 15 billion. Meanwhile, Grad Students who are not living high on the hog, if
you know any Grad Students, any out there watching, are looking at a 400 tax increase because essentially, the full value of their Tuition Stipend is going to be counted as income. Theyre now going to be paying taxes if theyre making 10,000 a year, paying taxes on 70,000. They are hosed. Well, theyre hosed. Graduate students are hosed. The people who are really sicker and older and depending on the Affordable Care act, they are getting hosed, because its going to be 300 billion taken from them. And given to corporations and the rich in terms of tax cuts. I mean, what this republican bill and you look at both bills, what you see is just an extraordinary amount of money that is being redistributed upward from people who dont have very much or have almost nothing to people who have everything. People who have never had in the history of america more. And corporations corporations who are flush with cash. American corporations, are right now pulling in half of the profits of all corporations in
the entire world, even though we are onefifth the size of the world economy. And what are these corporations doing . What they do with all this money is they buy back their shares of stock in order to raise the price of the share of stock. And by raising the price of the share of stock, theyre not helping all americans. Because the top 1 owns about 40 of the value of the shares of stock. And the top 10 owns 80 of the entire stock market. So once again, chris, however you look at this, this is a redistribution upward from the average Working Person and the poor to people who have never had it so good. Robert reich, thanks for being with me tonight. Thanks, chris. Still ahead, embarrassing, unpresident ial, childish. Well play what trump voters in North Carolina are saying now, and how democrats are looking to leverage it, ahead. Plus, tonights thing one, thing two starts after this. Thing 1 tonight. By now youve seen plenty about the water bottlegate. The highlight of President Trumps Asia Travel Log address yesterday. The two mid speech fiji polls, Trig Earlying Memories of marco rubios i nfamous episode of dr mouth. Didnt have an opportunity to update president trumps teleprompter moments. Those times when he misreads or mispronounces a word and rifts his way out of it. All in all, the president managed to get through a speech fairly well. Until it stops its dangerous proveocation and this is what were doing on denuclearization. And joining the United States in sanctioning additional rogue actors whose fund and funds have helped north korea and north Koreas Nuclear and Ballistic Missile programs. Far from terrible. But the trump teleprompter greatest hits, thats thing 2 in 60 seconds. [mascot] heyoooo whoop, whoop [crowd 1] hey, youre on fire [mascot] you bet i am [crowd 2] dude, youre on fire [mascot] oh, yeah [crowd 3] no, youre on fire look behind you. [mascot] im cool. Im cool. [burke] thats one way to fire up the crowd. But we covered it. Talk to farmers. We know a thing or two because weve seen a thing or two. We are farmers. Bumpadum, bumbumbumbum
giving lots of speeches is not easy, and even the best of us, as i just illustrated, Teleprompter Readers have stumbles. But we noticed theres one little trick the president uses frequently. If you make a mistake, just pretend you meant to do it. They sacrifice every day for the furniture, future of their children. Authority and authoritarian powers. Through their lives, and though their lives were cut short. And very importantly, air Traffic Controllers will highly and this will be highly valued. These are highly valued people. These are amazing people. Our hope is a word and world of proud, independent nations. Another historic Step Toward Future Development and future
with a future a real future. And i have to say, thats a real future. What standard, and really, if you think of it, when you talk about the great sailors and the great sailors of the world, we have them. But what stranded sailor doesnt feel relief . Should, should, should, should you could dance like you should can you dance like you should make the rules while dancing
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the training that they need to make the scene safe for themselves and for the public. Its handson training actually turning valves, turning systems off, looking at different wire systems all that training is crucial to keeping our Community Safe and our firefighters safe. Together, were building a better california. Ive made my share of mistakes. But my mistakes were never a crime. Ive learned through this process a lot about our system of justice. Congressional democrats dodged a bullet today with the Corruption Trial of new jersey senator, bob menendez, declared a mistrial. Jurors were unable to reach a verdict after nine weeks of testimony and seven days of deliberation. He was accused of acting as a personal doctor for a senator. It is said he accepted travel and Campaign Contributions and says the senator in turn
intervened on behalf of Business Interests and helped arrange visas for his girlfriends. If he had been found guilty, menendez could have faced pressure to resign, allowing governor Chris Christie to potentially appoint a republican in his place and add to the gops Minority Senate in which this time theyre trying to get tax reform passed. New jersey voters in a Quinnipiac Poll last month overwhelmingly said menendez does not deserve reelection by 59 19 . But if youre a democrat, even a very unpopular one, next year might be your best time to run. What recent democratic victories mean for possible blue wave in 2018, coming up next. Life happens. Call today, and install an adt starter kit that includes security panel, keypad, key fob, entry and Motion Sensors and for a limited time, get a camera included and installed at no additional cost. Thats a 449. 00 value, installed, for just 49. 00. So we know how to cover almost weve anything. St everything even a redhot mascot. [mascot] heyoooo whoop, whoop [crowd 1] hey, youre on fire [mascot] you bet i am [crowd 2] dude, youre on fire [mascot] oh, yeah [crowd 3] no, youre on fire look behind you. [mascot] im cool. Im cool. [burke] thats one way to fire up the crowd. But we covered it. Talk to farmers. We know a thing or two because weve seen a thing or two. We are farmers. Bumpadum, bumbumbumbum trump voters in North Carolina expressed buyers remor remorse over their election choice last year speaking last night. I feel like he told the people that he had all of these big ideas and big plans and it just seems to kind of roll to something else. Its like nothing is ever really accomplished. While i thought his ideas appeal to me, since hes been in there, hes embarrassed me by his behavior. He hasnt acted president ial at all. The tweets bother me. They might be enlightening to some people. Im not a tweeter, but to me its like firing off these tweets, its just childish. Democrats are already capitalizing on that dissatisfaction, racking up electoral victories across the country. The latest, a win on tuesday in a state and a district that has been unmistakably red. That is what oklahomas state
senate district 37 looked like last year when donald trump won by about 40 points. Clinton pulling 27 . Heres the same district tuesday night, when a democrat won the District Senate seat in a special election. And i have to notice, not just any democrat, Allison Ikly Freeman is a 26yearold lesbian. She won by just 31 votes in a Campaign Heavy on turning out progressive voters, which ones there are, and while the special election turnout was low, this is still a striking flip. And its hardly the only piece of good news for Statehouse Democrats this year. The list of seats flipped in State Legislatures includes 15 seats in virginia, four seats in new jersey, four seats in oklahoma, two in georgia, four in new hampshire, and one each in washington, florida, and new york. Tara dar dell is a democratic strategist and Cornell Belcher is a an msnbc analyst to discuss whether this looks like the beginning of a wave. As a pollster, what are you looking at right now . Well, you know, its and i was deemed pollster back in
back in his run for the state strategy, going into 2006. And there are some things that look similar. We george pubushs approval s in the mid30s. We forget that now, right . Thats a good point. Congressional job approval was in the 20s, right . You had the big wave of voters looking for change and democrats had a slight advantage on the favorability over republicans. Its a lot tighter now. But one of the things that you also saw was the energy, right . But there was also, from an issue standpoint, george bush killed us with terrorism and security, you know that, right . And then there was a values consideration. On the values, there was two big issues in 2004, where republicans had a huge advantage. There was terrorism and values. We said going in 2006, if we could cut those down from 30 and 20point advantages, we may have a shot in these zrdistricts. Going into october of 2006, we had cut their advantages down to Single Digits around those two important issues. And i think thats from an issue standpoint and from a structural standpoint, we were able to sort of take advantage of the wave that was coming. Tara, you work with different politicians. Youve your firm represents actually someone whos challenging in new jersey seven, which lances district. And thats like exactly the kind of seat, right, that democrats should be able to win, if theyre going to win a lot of seats. Right. What do you think about the dynamics in those kinds of most vulnerable Republican House seats, those top 20, 30 target races . Well, what were seeing right now is really strong favorables for democrats. So, number one, women, the energy and the activism that were seei ing in these distric is overwhelmingly coming from women. Thats why women candidates have an inherent advantage nah sense. I know people will say, it didnt work for hillary, but
thats a different example. And this activism and actually, a lot of it is a result of hillary having lost. So she won the seven district where my candidate, linda weber is running, she won that by one point, despite the fact that the incumbent congressman stayed and got reelected. The other dynamic that were seeing is, if you look at what people are saying, a lot of people are saying, democrats dont have any issues, we are the issues. Thats not really true. Maybe nationally theres not a clear Bumper Sticker message, but locally, these democrats are running on strong support for public education, theyre running on criminal justice reform. Theyre running on fixing the issues and many of these State Legislatures, like oklahoma, where theyve had Budget Shortfall after Budget Shortfall and scandal after scandal, theyre running on very specific issues, with very specific messages, all politics is local. And democrats are digging in. To that point, i want to one of the things that you saw, i think, last this past election was organic, right . You saw the grassroots bubbling up. If you dgo back, chris, and loo at, what were their top 30 or so d dccc targets in 06, you would see quite frankly, we didnt do very well in that top 30 that the status quo recruited. What youre seeing right now is people saying, you know what . Im going to run. You see a lot more organic and a lot more grassroots. And to that point, you have people that actually represent that district a lot more. And from a grassroots and an organic standpoint, as opposed to the National Parties coming in and saying, you know what, chris, you look like someone who should represent this district. And People Like Us will never look like someone that is a great point. The big thing is like do you have candidates . And one of the things in virginia was, they just fielded challengers. And the question of like who those candidates are, where do they come from . The difference between whoever is the head of the d trip getting on the phone and being like, you used to play football in that district, as opposed to, im an activist in this district, im a mom, a schoolteacher, im a firefighter, and im frustrated and angry about whats going on, im going to run. Right. And the other piece of this is
also the turnout from and look, i think we had great candidates in virginia, but that was also a lot democratic, right . You had parts of identification for dems were better than ten points than it was last time, it was a lot more liberal. A lot browner than what it usually is. Thats been our problem in mudd te midterms before. So what that electorate looks like. Right. And how much thats a question of persuasion versus motivation. That Oklahoma State senate seat, that was getting out the base in a very low turnout election, because its a special election in a state senate, not even in a midterm year. Its going to be a bigger challenge, i think, in the midterms, dont you think . I think the midterms are going to be more difficult because of the gerrymandering, because of these voter i. D. Laws. But ill point out some examples. In new hampshire, are we picked up seats, we picked up seats in the state legislature, in new hampshire, after a voter i. D. Law had been passed. And this is the 33rd. This seat last night was the