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trust and power, don't abuse it. >> that kind of thing just doesn't really happen around here. >> this is a big deal. >> and as a former senator tries to clear his name, a former governor tries to do the same. over health care. >> we are waiting -- mitt romney's attempt to overcome one of the biggest hurdles he faces in the quest to become the next president. >> that was a time when my massachusetts health care plan was considered at least by me to be an asset. it's gone from being seen as an asset to a liability, politically. >> mr. romney is compromised and not credible. if e)does not change his message, he might as well try to knock off joe biden and get on the obama ticket. >> they know their primary opponents will try to use it to say he is not a true conservative. >> president obama's plan in my view doesn't work properly and should be revealed. >> governor romney seems to be running away from some of the goals of his own law that he passed and signed into law in massachusetts. >> the reason he is doing it so he can say in a debate, i addressed this. this is old news. >> if i am the nominee, and i get the chance to debate president obama, this is what we're going to be talking about. who has a better plan for america? the american people will say the mitt romry u.s. reforms is a lot better than obama care. >> a history-making moment on the floor of the united states senate this afternoon, the select committee on ethics confirmed what we suspected the day senator john ensign announced his resignation last month. if he had not resigned, john ensign would have become only the 16th senator in the history of the senate to be expelled. today the senate ethics committee announced that it has uncovered substantial credible evidence that former senator john ensign, republican of nevada, conspired to violate and aided and abetted violations of federal law by trying to cover up an affair ensign had with a political aid who was the wife of one of his top senate staffers. barbara boxer, the chair of the ethics committee, announced on the senate floor that the committee is referring the case to the department of justice for possible prosecution. the committee found substantial credible evidence that senator ensign aided and abetted violations of a post employment lobbying ban by helping his former aide, douglas hampton, with hampton's wife. made false statements to the federal election commission about a $96,000 payment from ensign's parents to the hamptons. and that payment may have violated campaign finance laws. the report also found that senator ensign may have obstructed the committee's preliminary inquiry when he tried to get rid of documents. before senator ensign's affair became public, oklahoma republican senator tom coburn tried to help his friend negotiate a seven-figure settlement with ensign's legislative aide doug hampton. those talks fell apart, and hampton went to the media with details of ensign's affair with his wife. ensign announced his resignation on april 21 to take effect on may 3. >> my caution to all of my colleagues is to surround yourself with people who will be honest with you. about how you really are and what you are becoming. and then make them promise to not hold back no matter how much you may try to prevent them from telling you the truth. i wish that i had done this sooner. but this is one of the hardest lessons that i've had to learn. the chair of the senate ethics committee barbara boxer said today that her committee had enough evidence to warrant the consideration of ensign's expulsion if he had not resigned. >> when you are in a position of trust and power, don't abuse it. don't misuse it. because people can get hurt. very, very hurt. >> joining me now is melanie sloan, executive director of citizens for responsibility andç ethics in washington. melanie, thank you for joining me tonight. >> thanks for having me. >> on page 47 of the senate ethics committee report, section a, you are given full credit for starting this investigation by filing a complaint that says on june 16, 2009, senator ensign held a public press conference in which he admitted he had an extramarital affair with a member of his staff, later identified as ms. hampton. on june 24, 2009, the committee received a request for investigation of senator john ensign from crew. the request alleged that senator ensign's conduct with cynthia hampton constituted employment discrimination on the basis of sex in the form of sexual harassment and referred to the press report in which an anonymous source stated that the senator had made a severance payment to ms. hampton it. goes on to specify how they asked to you submit more documentation. you did. and then following that, they began their investigation. the report issues no other initiating action other than getting your request for the investigation. how do you feel this evening having in effect started this investigation in the senate and seen where it has come out? >> well, we're obviously quite pleased. it could have been a little sooner than the 22 months it's taken, obviously. but it's clear that mr. ensign did resign because he was under threat of expulsion, which as you said earlier is so rare. and that certainly is what we were calling for all along, that senator ensign should be expelled. but i think the report also highlights how much the department of justice has fallen down here. earlier, just a few months ago, the department of justice declined to prosecute mr. ensign, instead focusing only on doug hampton, his former aide, for violating the lobbying ban. but now we see the ethics committee sending the matter back to justice, and maybe the justice department will be embarrassed enough to reconsider and finally bring charges ç against mr. ensign. >> yeah. this was a very strong language in this referral today. let's listen to what senator boxer said on the floor today about sending this to the justice department. >> ethics committee rules make it clear that whenever the members of the committee have reason to believe that a violation of law has occurred, we shall report it to the proper authorities. so we have a solemn responsibility indeed. it's actually a mandate to refer possible criminal or civil violations to the department of justice and to the federal election commission, and that is what we have done today. >> melanie, one of the surprising things in what the ethics committee reported today is that there are no surprises, that the story actually unfolds once fully investigated exactly the way it seemed to, as these facts were coming out in dribs and drabs in press reports. >> that's exactly right. the one thing that had never seemed true at all was when mr. ensign had said the $96,000 that was paid to the hamptons was really just a gift from his parents. and that of course seemed like severance right away, a severance payment to the hamptons. and of course doug hampton also had a bunch of contemperaneous notes indicating that it was. and today we learned indeed there's lots of evidence that was a severance payment, which would violate federal election campaign act. it also suggests that john ensign's parents, michael ensign and his wife, submitted false affidavits to the fec as did senator ensign. and it seems like their lawyers in that situation knew and helped them to facilitate sending false affidavits, which suggests potentially some legal disciplinary proceedings as well. there's just a lot of wrongdoing all around here. i think the one thing we didn't previously know is that mr. ensign tried to destroy áháo continue covering it up. that's an obstruction charge that will cause him even further legal problems. >> what is your sense of what the senate ethics committee would have done if you had not filed that complaint? >> well, mr. ensign's conduct was so egregious and well covered in the press i think it would have been hard for them to ignore even without crew filing the complaint. but they don't have the reputation for tough action in any case. i think crew's action really helped to spur them on here. >> it seems they do have to be pushed. but when they go to work, they do have a history of doing a thorough job. melanie sloan, thank you for joining me tonight. joining me now is howard fineman, editor of "the huffington post." there's a lot of implications just in the senator generally in the recommendations they make. they make recommendations for all senate offices to restudy the law controlling some of the behavior, especially the matter of dealing with lobbyists who have been employed by that same senate office within a certain period of calendar time. that's the law that seems to have been violated here. so this ripples going through the senate tonight. there's a lot of chill in the senate tonight. >> well, there's no question. and it's a cliche, but it's true. the place is a club. ensign fled the club. but senator ensign -- former senator ensign leaves behind a lot of concerns, yes, about the itself as i'm reading the details here, it is really an arrow aimed straight at the heart of the republicans in the senate. not just -- ensign is gone, but there are lots of other people to be looked at, as a matter of fact. >> what is todd coburn's liability or risk in this investigation as it goes forward? >> well, in reading the report,ç there are a lot of questions that are going to be asked of senator coburn. because he acted as a kind of go between here between former senator ensign and the lobbyist and the lobbyist's wife with whom senator ensign was having the affair. trying to -- senator coburn evidently trying to facilitate a large payment to that couple to basically make them go away. now, you know, what the legality of that is isn't clear. i think there are going to be questions asked about it. senator coburn said he was just trying to help out a friend, a fellow colleague and a christian ministry that has a home up on capitol hill. and i'm sure he had heartfelt good intentions. but when you start talking about possible payments of millions of dollars to people who might cause problems for a fellow senator, then senator coburn is going to have to answer a lot of questions. and he's not necessarily the most liked guy around that place. >> howard, what does this do to the general prospects for republicans in terms of congressional elections? the parties have become sensitive to the idea that scandals, even though they seem isolated, involve certain individuals, can actually end up affecting the entire party. certainly the democrats felt that in 1994 that a history of certain individual cases of scandal in the house of representatives hurt them and helped them lose the house in 1994. is this the kind of thing, with a justice department investigation going on, that will certainly drag into the election year? is this the kind of thing that republicans have a larger political fear of? >> i don't think there's any sense that the leadership in the republican senate knew about it. but, look, first of all, the justice department is going to be looking into possible criminal violations as you were discussing just a few minutes ago. that's number one.ç and that involves former senator ensign. there's senator ensign's parents, who may be under investigation by the department of justice as well. the questions that have been asked and will be asked about senator coburn. there's the whole question about that fellowship ministry on the hill, the so-called c street house, and what discussions were held there. whether they were all matters of the heart or whether they were matters of money and power as well. and that really gets sort of to the heart of the party in the senate. but i really don't ok -- this case is so garish. and as you said, it was so obviously laid on the table, i think it's more personal to those people now, still, than it is to the whole republican senate. but there's no question that this story is going to drag on all the way through election day, especially with the department of justice on the case. >> howard fineman of "the huffington post" and msnbc. thank you for joining me tonight. coming up, mitt romney tried to confront his health care problem head on today after the "wall street journal" said romney might as well run on the democratic ticket. massachusetts governor patrick joins me to explain the romney problem. and later, the republicans thought they got rid of a headache when shirtless congressman chris lee resigned his seat. but now the race to replace this guy has turned into something almost as out of control as lee's short congressional career. ♪ [ male announcer ] in 2011, at&t is at work, building up our wireless network all across america. we're adding new cell sites... increasing network capacity, and investing billions of dollars to improve your wireless network experience. from a single phone call to the most advanced data download, we're covering more people in more places than ever before in an effort to give you the best network possible. at&t. rethink possible. in an effort to give you the best network possible. unseasonably coldorrow's weaon both coasts.a be blazing hot in the center of the country and on this island. jack! it doesn't matter what the weatherman says if you have a symmetrical all-wheel drive subaru coming up, on the very day mitt romney tries to get past his biggest political albatross, the "wall street journal" says it's exactly why you'll never hear the words "president romney." the man who followed romney as governor of massachusetts, deval patrick, joins me next to talk about romney's health care plan. and later, meghan mccain tries to raise skin cancer awareness, and of course her efforts earn her the ridicule and hatred of glenn beck. tonight, meghan mccain fires back.ç tdd# 1-800-345-2550 absolutely, i mean, these financial services companies tdd# 1-800-345-2550 are still talking about retirement tdd# 1-800-345-2550 like it's some kind of dream. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it's either this magic number i'm supposed to reach, or... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it's beach homes or it's starting a vineyard. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 come on ! tdd# 1-800-345-2550 just help me figure it out tdd# 1-800-345-2550 in a practical, let's-make- this-happen kind of way. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 a vineyard ? 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our plan was a state solution to a state problem, and his is a power grab by the federal government to put in place a one size fits all plan across the nation. >> joining me now is the democratic governor of massachusetts, deval patrick. thank you for joining me. >> glad to be with you, lawrence. thank you for having me. >> was the "wall street journal" right today when they said, as everyone knows, the health reform mr. romney passed in 2006 as massachusetts governor was the prototype for president obama's version, and gave national health care a huge political boost? >> well, he certainly is right -- they are certainly right at "the journal" that our plan is a model for the national plan, the affordable care act. they didn't mention, but i will, that we have now provided insurance to over 98% of our residents, over 99.8% of children. no other state can touch that. it's added all of 1% to state spending because we have managed it effectively and continue to adjust and refine it as we've gone along. more companies, private companies, are offering insurance to their employees today than did before the bill was signed into law. it's been a wild success. and we have ongoing challenges, like the rest of the country in terms of insurance premiums. but just as we have seen the nation to expand coverage to everyone, i think we will be thç ones to crack the code on cost containment. >> governor, i was listening a little bit today to howry carr's radio show in boston. i'm from boston, and i try to pick it up whenever i can. and the general consensus that i picked up today, these are conservative listeners to that though today, is that they like romney as a person. they have always kind of liked him. but they just think this is absolutely impossible for him to get past, his health care history in massachusetts now running for president. >> it's an interesting kind of quandary as so many people see it, and apparently so does howey carr. first of all, i want to agree that governor romney has always been a gentleman to me, and i think of him fondly on a personal level. but to listen to him today, it sounds to me like he likes most everything about the affordable care act, except for the fact that the president of the united states, barack obama, is the one who signed it into law. >> yeah. it was hard to find exactly what romney would do differently if he was presiding over this same situation in massachusetts today. he wasn't backtracking from what he did. and the individual mandate, which is the cornerstone of the massachusetts bill, and the first real model we had for that in the country, to think about how it might work, is the thing that republicans object to the most. that's the thing that has driven republicans to take the case, they hope, to the supreme court to rule the obama bill unconstitutional. it's just hard for me to see how he can get by the first debate of republican candidates where everything he supported is absolutely something they all oppose. >> well, you know, it's interesting. when the debate was happening here in massachusetts, six or seven years ago, we have just had the fifth anniversary of enactment, i remember personally being uneasy with the idea of the individual mandate.ç and as i listen to governor romney describe it at the time, and many of the business people who were supporting it, they said, look, this is a classic feature from insurance that you spread the risk as broadly as possible in order to keep the costs down for everybody. and so i understand that. and as i say, it's been a wild success here. but i think there's a larger question here. and that's about what kind of country we want to live in. that's really what the underlying debate is. and i think the job of the president is to help people, not to solve every problem in everybody's life but to help people help themselves. and what it sounds like is that governor romney wants to have that job but not do that job. >> governor, my favorite political comment i have heard about this, and i have heard it through howey carr's radio show, where they quote the mayor of boston, who every once in a while will misspeak on a word or two -- >> but he is a great, great guy. >> he apparently has said that romneycare is an alcatraz around his neck. can you check that for me and find out if that's exactly the way he said it? >> the mayor is a wonderful guy and a great supporter of what we have done to help so many men, women, and children to have the security of health insurance. and you know what? what a great thing to be able to assure our population during the worst economic downturn in living memory. >> deval patrick, governor of massachusetts. thank you for joining me. >> thank you, lawrence. be well. >> coming up, senator john mccain returns to his old ways and bucks the republican party and says torture did not play a and retribution from al qaeda. the terror network is now publicly threatening president obama's family. details up next. >> ( rooster crows ) >> by 2020, 50 billion network devices will roam the earth. that's seven devices per person. this will change how we work in ways we've never before imagined. what do you need to secure your people, their devices, and your business? a network that can evolve and grow to protect your human network. i can't get rid of these weeds, or these nasal allergies. i know what works differently than many other allergy medications. omnaris. omnaris. to the nose! did you know nasal symptoms like congestion can be caused by allergic inflammation? 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[ sighs ] [ male announcer ] six indulgent layered desserts at 150 calories or less. new temptations, it's the first jell-o that's just for adults. better than any other luxury brand. ♪ intellichoice proclaims that lexus has the best overall value of any brand. ♪ and j.d. power and associates ranks lexus the highest in customer satisfaction. no wonder more people have chosen lexus over any other luxury brand 11 years in a row. see your lexus dealer. in tonight's spotlight, senator john mccain today blasted the former bush administration officials who have been claiming that harsh interrogation techniques, including water boarding, led to the killing of osama bin laden.ç mccain offered proof in the form of new details provided to him by cia director leon panetta. >> the trip to bin laden did not begin with a disclosure from khalid sheik mohammed, who was water boarded 183 times. we did not first learn from mohammed the real name of bin laden's courier or his alias. the man who ultimately enabled us to find bin laden. the first mention of the name abu ahmed al kuwait as well as a description from him came from a detainee in another country. the united states did not conduct this detainee interrogation, nor did we render into that country for the purpose of interrogation. we did not learn abu ahmed's real name or alias as a result of waterboarding or any enhanced interrogation technique in u.s. custody. in fact, not only did the use of enhanced interrogation techniques lead us to ahmed kuwaiti, it produced false information. >> he said he also learned that the best information gained from a cia detainee was obtained through standard, noncoercive methods. in both his speech and an op-ed in today's "washington post," mccain recalled his 5 1/2 years as a prisoner of war in vietnam to repeat his condemnation of torture from both a moral and practical point of view. writing -- >> joining me now, msnbc political analyst jonathan alter, columnist for bloomburg view. i have to say, when that guy is good, he is really, really goodç >> joining me now, msnbc political analyst jonathan alter, columnist for bloomburg view. i have to say, when that guy is good, he is really, really good. >> yeah. you know, i have a lot against him. i'm sure you did too over the last couple of years where he kind of rounded up his principles and deported them. but on this issue, you have to give john mccain credit. he says the standing and the credibility to correct this extremely important historical point. all this week, dick cheney and other veterans of the bush administration have been all over television claiming that it was the waterboarding of ksm that led to bin laden. it is not true. we now have it from the director of cia that it is not true. and that alcove in the bush library that was going to give their enhanced interrogation techniques credit for getting bin laden, they better not put that up because it will be a lie. >> the very simple and powerful clarity of the presentation that he just went through, the simplicity of it, is very, very powerful, very clear, and newsmaking, using this information that he says he obtained directly from leon panetta. he went out and did his own homework to make that speech. is the old john mccain back? >> well, i think that remains to be seen. he's still pretty bitter over the way some of his old allies sided with barack obama. he got a scare in arizona in that tough primary with j.d. hayworth. so you're not going to see him playing footsie with the democrats the way you did a couple of yecr&ujjy now he has one of the most conservative voting records in the whole senate, and i don't think that's going to change that much. but on a few key issues, this being one of them, he's standing up and it's extremely important. because this is a fight over the way history will regard this tremendously important event. and the man who, you know, led us to bin laden, ahmed al kuwaiti, he was not -- the information leading to him, just to repeat what mccain said, because it can be tough when you see him on the floor talking about it, his identity was not obtained either through torture or through what they call rendition, which is sending a suspect to be tortured someplace else. that was not the case in this critical event. and the clarity of this is extraordinarily important, lawrence. >> for the man who rode the straight talk express in his first presidential campaign, the straight talk was back today. and i don't see him getting flak from other republicans in the senate. they do regard him as an authority on this. >> we'll see whether cheney gets questioned now next time he goes on fox based on this new information. >> right. jonathan alter, thank you for joining me tonight. >> thanks, lawrence. glenn beck versus meghan mccain. she tries to save us from skin cancer, and he calls her unattractive in the most cruel way. and why this has led to an even bigger mess for the republican party. coming up. finally, there's a choice for my patients with an irregular heartbeat called atrial fibrillation, or afib, that's not caused by a heart valve problem. today we have pradaxa to reduce the risk of a stroke caused by a clot. in a clinical trial, pradaxa 150 mg reduced stroke risk 35% more than warfarin. and with pradaxa, there's no need for those regular blood tests. pradaxa is progress. pradaxa can cause serious, sometimes fatal, bleeding. don't take pradaxa if you have abnormal bleeding, and seek immediate medical care for unexpected signs of bleeding, like unusual bruising. pradaxa may increase your bleeding risk if you're 75 or older, have kidney problems or a bleeding condition, like stomach ulcers. or if you take aspirin products, nsaids, or blood thinners. tell your doctor about all medicines you take, any planned medical or dental procedures, and don't stop taking pradaxa without your doctor's approval, as stopping may increase your stroke risk. other side effects include indigestion, stomach pain, upset, or burning. if you have afib not caused by a heart valve problem, ask your doctor if pradaxa can reduce your risk of a stroke. coming up, glenn beck makes fun of meghan mccain's weight and her efforts to raise skin cancer awareness. in the rewrite, meghan mccain ç teaches beck a thing or two. and later, the shirtless congressman may have resigned, but that did not end the problem for republicans in that district. why the scandal has turned into an unexpected and bizarre three-way political battle. ♪ [ male announcer ] in 2011, at&t is at work, building up our wireless network all across america. we're adding new cell sites... increasing network capacity, and investing billions of dollars to improve your wireless network experience. from a single phone call to the most advanced data download, we're covering more people in more places than ever before in an effort to give you the best network possible. at&t. rethink possible. in an effort to give you the best network possible. thank you for that, and here's what's going to happen tomorrow! well, it's going to start with me wearing a different shirt. it doesn't matter what the weatherman says if you have a symmetrical all-wheel drive subaru tdd# 1-800-345-2550 are still talking about retirement tdd# 1-800-345-2550 like it's some kind of dream. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it's either this magic number i'm supposed to reach, or... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it's beach homes or it's starting a vineyard. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 come on ! tdd# 1-800-345-2550 just help me figure it out tdd# 1-800-345-2550 in a practical, let's-make- this-happen kind of way. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 a vineyard ? schwab real life retirement services is personalized, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 practical help that's focused on making your retirement real. open an account today and talk to chuck tdd# 1-800-345-2550 about setting up your one-on-one consultation. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 in the rewrite tonight, thii man thinks that this woman has a weight problem, and is unattractive. glenn beck stupidly described this video of meghan mccain to his radio audience as depicting meghan mccain naked. and then pretended to vomit on his radio show at the thought of ms. mccain naked. ms. mccain replied, in a dear mr. beck letter on "the daily beast," she pointed out that what glenn beck was referring to was a psa for skin cancer awareness. ms. mccain went on to use ms. mccain went on to use most of her reply space to glenn beck to bring more attention to the problem of skin cancer, with some particular details about her father's difficult struggle with it. she then gave beck a parenting note, that he needs to but most certainly will fail, to take seriously. not surprisingly, meghan's mother, cindy mccain, tweeted her rage at beck for his, quote, vitriol and hate. we can all now patiently await beck's tweet. the day one of his daughters is attacked on the radio for the way she looks.ç also today as i pursued my habit of reading smart op-ed writers i disagree with, i came across an ep op-ed in "the new york post." he was a speechwriter for the first president bush and also served as a consultant for nbc's "the west wing." this is how he welcomed newt gingrich into the presidential campaign. newt gingrich has an outsized intelligence that unleavened by any kind of critical sensibility. when he is seized by an idea, he believes in it wholeheartedly and makes a good case for it. unfortunately, it's often immaterial whether the idea itself is sound or whacko. he delivers grand pronouncements on life, liberalism, conservatism, and religion, and whatever else swings into his consciousness. and while he may understand the kinds of hot button issues that get to people, what he does not understand is how he, newt gingrich, comes across to people. the answer? not well. his career as a public figure has been marked by the kinds of tenured pronouncements mostly about the personal misconduct of others that can only be likened to a brilliant professional golfer who consistently knocks the ball into the same water hazard again and again. he has a weakness for wildly inappropriate nazi analogies. people like me, he said in 1994, are what stand between us and auschwitz. the two most famous instances of his foot in mouth disease came when he likened the democratic party to woody allen's affair with his own pseudo ç stepdaughter, suggested that if you were upset by the fact that susan smith drowned her two children so she could run off with her boyfriend, you needed to vote republican. yet while he felt free to hold others' personal conduct in moral contempt, he only recently offered an excuse for his own personal weaknesses in an interview with a christian broadcaster. there's no question at times of my life partially driven by how passionately i felt about this country that i worked far too hard and things in my life that were not appropriate. newt gingrich never received more than 100,000 votes in his life. he'll never be president. well, nothing to rewrite there. i have never agreed with john pudhoritz more. and if michelle bachmann decides to run, i can't wait to see how he welcomes her to the earned her masters in education at a university with 20 years of experience combining classroom and online teaching. and a 15 to 1 student to faculty ratio... to make learning more... personal. today, she runs a thriving tutoring company that offers kids the same individualized attention she had. my name is beatrice hair, i teach hundreds of kids one on one, and i am a phoenix. 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>> do you want to punch it out? >> why? why did you -- ah! sir -- >> [ laughter ] >> why did you back out of the debate? why did you back out of the debate? ah! why did you back out of the debate? joining me now is "washington post" columnist e.j. deon. you wrote about this a few days ago. this is the first and election since the house republicans voted on paul ryan's budget. what has the republicans in more trouble, the three-way race or the paul ryan budget? >> if it weren't a three-way race, maybe it wouldn't have become competitive, but it definitely wouldn't be competitive without the ryan budget. there was a story today saying that medicare is the big issue in the race. and i think it's an interesting test, because a lot of republicans had a false sense of security when they voted for ryan budget because they lot of republicans tried to use ryan's ideas in the 2010 election -- a lot of democrats tried to use the ideas against republicans in the 2010 election but it didn't work because these are the ideas of some wanky republican from wisconsin, and there was no bill. well, now you've got votes for it and an actual bill that was passed. and it's really been very potent. and holchul has gone straight aç medicare cuts to support tax cuts for the rich. >> this is jack kemp's district that the republicans are risking here, and they may be in serious trouble in. you've got to believe that the electorate up there is smart enough to distinguish democrat, republican, independent and how they split their vote and who's going to end up winning if they go with the so-called tea party candidate. it seems that there's got to be a warning shot just coming out of where the polls stand right now for republicans in washington. >> well, i think that is the best news for republicans. democrats would be better if that poll had come out about a week later, because you've got karl rove and his friends now spending $650,000. they are spending a lot of initial money trying to knock davis down. i assume they are going to go after holchul at the end of the republican national party, the congressional committee, never had to expect -- never expected to spend money in this district. and they're coming in. so there may be a warning shot. but i think voters often use special elections to send protest messages. i think that's part of what helped scott brown win in massachusetts a year ago. this may be a protest in reverse about republican overreach. >> and holchul is a well financed candidate. her husband is the local u.s. attorney. very, very credible candidacy that she's running. know, davis could be with his past democratic history, he could be pulling some holchul votes aside too. >> although the polling suggests that more of his vote is coming out of corwin, the republican, than holchul. and i think you can be pretty sure of that when you see how aggressive the republicans are in going against davis. they think that he really could stand in the way of corwin's victory. >> if karl rove swoops into that district and puts a lot of money into buffalo television and other things, will the democrats have anything that can respond as quickly with as much money? >> i don't think they'll have as much money as rove can put in. but i think it really is a test case, sort of a test run for 2012. you've got a generic republican message about smaller government and lower taxes, against a specific democratic message about medicare and tax cuts for the rich. and if holchul can really cut into the republican vote there, let alone if she can win, it really will tell us something about how 2012 might come out. but then everybody should beware of pundits using any special election to predict the future, including me. >> well, democrats will welcome her as a tremendous hero if she makes it to washington. >> you bet. >> e.j., thank you for joining me tonight. >> thanks. good to be with you. you can have the last word online at msnbc.com. you can follow my tweets at lawrence. "the rachel maddow show" is up next. >> thank you for staying with us for the next hour. we begin tonight with a bombshell from an unlikely place.

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