african-american vote and very far ahead in south carolina. so when i say it's the experiment, this is my question. what happens if biden takes a bath in iowa and new hampshire? what happens if he doesn't just lose? what happens if he loses badly? does that firewall in south carolina hold? do we see something we haven't seen before? a candidate who's basically able to jump start it in south carolina? or does it go away? and the other thing is what if somebody else, buttigieg, warren, sanders, anybody, wins iowa and new hampshire? that's been an unbeatable combination. four for four candidates who have done that on the democratic side. does that work this time with biden still leading in south carolina at this point? >> so would you be looking at the polls? or would you be looking at crowd size as an indicator of enthusiasm? we were talking about enthusiasm during the break. donald trump had so much enthusiasm in 2016. and maybe that wasn't represented in the polls but it was certainly represented at his rallies. they were giant. >> yeah. i -- i'm -- i'm skeptical of crowd sizes. particularly, after a -- i think it was late -- early november rally in pennsylvania with mitt