Transcripts For MSNBC Morning Joe 20121026

Desk is going to go through them. We have with us Political Editor and White House Correspondent for the huffington post, sam stein. Chairman of deutsche inc. , donny deutsch. Morning joe analyst and economist, steve ratner. We have the great Mika Brzezinski walking in from the night shift where she did way too early. 11 days left, and were getting new poll numbers, National Poll numbers, state poll numbers. In colorado, in nevada. Now, these two swing states were states that the president won in 2008 and hes fighting to hang on to now. According to the new nbc poll, in colorado, this race is dead even. 48 48 among likely voters. The president s fivepoint lead from a month ago gone. In nevada, the president s holding on to a threepoint advantage, 50 47 in nevada like we said yesterday stubbornly staying in the president s column. Thats actually a slight uptick for mr. Obama from last month, mika. We should note this polling was conducted after the third and final debate. And if there was any doubt about romneys momentum, look at what happened in virginia. A new fox news poll shows romney now leading by two points. Last month the same poll had obama up seven. And in the abc Washington Post daily tracking poll of likely voters, romney has taken a threepoint lead, 50 47 . On monday, the president was leading 49 48 . And on the economy when asked who voters trust more on that issue, romney now has a sizeable ninepoint lead. So you look at these National Polls, mika, abc news Washington Post poll showing a fourpoint lead in the National Poll. This week. A fourpoint swing in the National Poll. Gallup, of course, has had mitt romney ahead i think way too much over the past week or two. Sometimes five, six points. And in the National Poll, it really does seem if you take all the polls, it really does seem like mitt romney is moving away from barack obama. And yet you go to these swing states, nevada, Holding Steady for barack obama. Colorado, still deadlocked. Virginia, slightly going to romney. Weve said we expect the south to go that way. But yesterday, a time poll had the president five points in ohio. Last week, an nbc news marist poll had the president up five points in ohio. It seems like we could and i said could could be moving towards a scenario where mitt romney wins the National Vote and barack obama wins the electoral vote. This could be as close as ever, if possible. In the waning days of this election, by the way, the president ial campaigns have surpassed an incredible benchmark. Total spending has topped 2 billion, putting the race on track to be the costliest in american history. According to federal elections data, the campaigns are doling out nearly 29 every second on rallies, banners and, of course, advertising. President obama told Nbcs Brian Williams last night that he sees the prolific spending as a real problem even in his own campaign. The amount of money that is being spent in my campaign and mr. Romneys campaign and the super pacs that are out there is ridiculous. There is no reason why i believe we can interpret the constitution in a way that allows us for some commonsense restrictions on the amount of money spent and the manner in which its spent because for us to have folks writing 10 million checks undisclosed, having huge sway in this election, and just the sheer amount of waste that could be used more profitably in other areas doesnt make much sense. So this is an issue that, in a second term, ill raise. In the remaining days inside a campaign, joe, where do they spend it . How do they spend it since they have to spend it . They need to spend it on getting out the vote, and nobody has a better getoutthevote operation than barack obama. A lot of republican insiders say that president obamas team actually may oneup what karl rove and ken mehlman did in 2004 which was historic getoutthevote operation. Well see. If this things close, sam stein, and it looks like its going to be close, thats going to make a big difference. But what do you make of the divergence between the National Polls where mitt romney, does he not seem to be moving ahead . And these swing state polls where it remains neck and neck. I didnt realize we were going to be talking politics today. I thought i was going to be the latest exhibit at the met. You know, we were talking about this off set. We have a very static race, i actually think here, where you see mitt romney up two or three Percentage Points nationally. Obama has that stubborn lead in the state polls. People i talk to on both sides say at some point something will converge, either the national or state polls or vice versa. Like steve and i discussed off set, i dont necessarily see why that would be the case. Im not the geek you portrayed me to be. Yes, you are. Well be the judge of that. Theres no reason why ohio would have to necessarily reflect the trend nationally. I do think youll have a situation where obamas going to get clobbered in the south. Hes not going to see the same margins of victory he saw in 2008. And hell probably hold on to some of these swing states. And youll end up where he could very well lose the National Poll. Lose the National Vote. And win the Electoral College vote. Thats never happened before. Its happened before with george w. Bush, and thats how we elect president s, and they know that. They know that this is a game of Electoral College game. It really is splitting, though, donny, isnt it. You see the National Vote pulling away from the president. You know, if its 500,000 votes, a million votes, 2 million votes, thats one thing. Its 3 , 2, 3, 4 like some of these polls suggest, youll have a lot of people scratching their heads the day after. Again, like sam said, these are the rules. It is what it is. Nobody has any right to whine. You know going in what the rules of the game are. That said, that would have some people scratching their heads. It would. But there are two major things i look at right now. The first and obvious one that if i put in the category of obama, ohio, 4 , 5 , that doesnt seem to be moving. The math, as we all know, doesnt add up for romney if he doesnt win ohio. Hes got to win ohio. The thing that i see in romneys favor at this point, and i go back to carter reagan, the what the heck vote. Id like to use a word other than heck but i wont because this is a nice family show. I think early on people who are bee grijingly sticking with gulf of mexico begrudgingly sticking with obama, what he did in that first debate gave enough people, i think, even if its not showing up in the polls yet, you know what . When the yeah, theres enough to go over there. Im not going to stick with this guy. And i think if theres any surprise in the polls, i think its going to swing in romneys favor. Im starting to think that, too, mika. This is, again, were getting so close. The president s still sitting at 47 , 48 in a lot of the nationally positives. You know, turnout can get you a percentage point. But if mitt romney keeps moving in the direction hes moving, thats different. If somebody has a cell phone on, you need to turn it off, Steve Rattner. I was just about to go to the financiers chart. Steve rattners always had a blackberry and its never been a problem. Littleknown fact for kids at home if you want to be on morning joe, at t signals interfere with whatever were wearing. But im getting brain waves from it. Its inspiration. The reason why. Thats actually the first time a call has ever gone through on your at t phone. Come on. Lets talk about ohio. Youre digging into the numbers there. This is getting so frustrating. Because a poll comes out that shows obama five point as head in ohio. Immediately everybody screams on the right, oh, its plus 9 democrat. Its skewed. The polls are blah, blah, blah. You hear the same thing on the left when mitt romney started moving ahead. Liberals started saying oh, the poll samples cant be believed. I guess were all trying to figure out early voting and how it plays into this thing. Ohio does seem to be right now still in the president s favor. Every elections a little bit different in terms of turnout, in terms of early voting becoming more prevalent so you can never be sure, but i think its pretty consistent. Let me show you another poll which is not the polls you guys have been looking at but a poll that we financier types look at which is in trade and what the market is saying. And so, in fact, if you look at this, youll see that obama has consistently been ahead in ohio. And not surprisingly, before the first debate when he was on a roll nationally, he also was on a roll in ohio. And the odds there were up to 80 . And then, of course, romney had his surge. And just about got back to even with obama here. But now its pulled away again. And, in fact, even since yesterday when we did this and he was at 59 , hes actually moved to 63 on the intrade poll. Theres one more poll to throw into your mix about whats going on. Historically, how reare those intrade poll . 49 out of 50 states in the last election. Well do an intrade update next week right before and you can all see whats happened. Intrades been up the 60s, 70s. Right around 60. Its been hovering right around 60. But a lot of money has been moving romneys way. When you look at all these different numbers, steve, whats your gut . Obviously, mitt romney gaining a lot in the south. But the midwest, thats still the battleground. Its still the battleground, but i think with sam at least i think i know where sam is when you actual will i look at it state by state and you look at ohio and iowa and even New Hampshire and nevada, it just seems so consistently just ever so much in obamas column. And it doesnt seem to be moving. And even like the places where it has come close, colorado and virginia are now everyone you talk to say those are the tightest races, right . I know we had the fox poll up, but theres been other polls showing the flip in virginia. Those two places are basically 50 50 propositions now. The obama team thinks of it like this. Those are sort of safety valves. They can try to, you know, churn out a victory in colorado and virginia if ohio somehow goes to hell. And theyre happy by the fact, you know, this is spin, obviously, but theyre happy about the fact that at this stage in the game mitt romney still has to pour in tons of resources in colorado, in virginia. By the way, if mitt romney wins ohio, hes going to win virginia and colorado. You would think. They are no safety valves. Thats why, you know, i wrote a post a couple days ago for politico that said either obama wins in a tight race or romney wins big. The only reason why is if romney wins, he wins ohio. Yeah. And if he wins ohio, hes made up a fivepoint disadvantage in ohio which would carry him over the top in colorado. The only counterpoint to that and i dont know if this is valid is that when you do have a sophisticated ground game, which everyone agrees the obama team has, you can sometimes get a couple Percentage Points against that surge. And it can matter in a state like virginia, for instance. Right. But, again i understand what youre saying. Hes five points down in ohio. I dont think hes down by five points. According to the latest two polls. If theres a surge that takes him over the top its going to be everywhere. In ohio that obamas incredible ground game in ohio cant stop, then katie, bar the door, florida, north carolina, virginia, colorado. They all are going to swing. Especially because ohio is the center of america. And you cant say oh, thats just ohio. Thats not going to have an impact to the rest of the country. Can you respond to the psychology . Because obviously the polls and i think we all agree as you go state by state. The point i made earlier as far as the psychology when its this close right. That do you go new or stay old . I keep going back to Reagan Carter, and what scares me as a democrat, what the heck. Im a behaviorist. And thats what scares me. So heres the deal. You are a behaviorist. I will tell you in every election ive ever seen, in every poll ive ever read, in every incumbent ive ever talked to, if youre under 50 , if youre under 50 , you know, a week and a half out, youre sweating bullets. The burden of proof is against you that youre going to get reelected. Thats my point. So if the president s sitting at 47 in polls, boy, id be shocked if he won. Hes at 48 in some of these polls. So thats my gut. That said, hes got an incredible ground game, and a lot of early voters are coming out, and theyre voting for barack obama. So you have if youre a behavioralist, and i am, too, when it comes to these things, if youre undecided about barack obama and youve known barack obama for five years and youve followed him for five years and hes been on the front page of the newspaper for five years and hes been on your tv set every night for five years, and everybodys been talking about him for five years and you still dont know if youre going to vote for barack obama, history would suggest thats my point. Youre not going to swing in the last ten days. That said, youve got to go to the other side of it. And the other side of it is and im not hedging. These are just the realities that we have to weigh. And this is why nobody in the obama camp and nobody in the romney camp knows how this is going to end. On the president s side, you look at an extraordinary turnout operation. That operation got george w. Bush reelected in 2004. You look at that. And you just wonder, Steve Rattner. I will say this. In 2004 at this point, george w. Bush had a 51 , 52 approval rating. This president is still below 50 , so its hard to tell. I get the behavioral thing, and we all know what happened in 1980 when in the last few days people sort of said im not going that way. But i think whats different here is the fact that the economy is actually Getting Better and people are perceiving it Getting Better. There was another gallup poll out yesterday which has not gotten as much attention where for the first time in five years, more americans think theyre better off than think theyre worse off over the last four years. And the numbers are very similar to what they were in 2004 and in 1984. 1984, the reagan landslide. Exactly. I get that point. I think obamas got the ground game, and i think he does have a bit of momentum from the economy. If were going to talk about behavioral psychology, there is one more jobs report coming out on the friday before the election. That could sort of mean what steve was talking about which is that people think the country is going in the right direction. And i agree, but lets look at this Washington Post poll again, this abc news Washington Post poll, when americans are asked who they think will do a better job with the economy, 9 . 9 more say mitt romney. So romneys Still Holding that builtin advantage. So you dont know how it breaks, but you are exactly right. That gallup poll was an eyecatcher. I tweeted it immediately because 38 of americans think things are Getting Better. 34 say worse. Thats a change. That hasnt happened in four or five years. And again, the numbers are about the same as they were in 1984 when Ronald Reagan won 49 states. And if you look at other numbers like consumer confidence, like optimism about the economy, theyve all turned up in the last few weeks and months. And thats on the back of better news in housing, better news on jobs, better news on a bunch of fronts. And in ohio it has its own story especially with the bailout. Ohio has its own story because of autos. This weekend, by the way, joe and i will be on the campaign trail with president obama. Well be speaking with the president at one of his Campaign Events in New Hampshire. Well also talk to senior white house adviser valerie jarrett. Hold on a second. What . Why is his picture bigger than mine . I dont know. Why dont you finish counting words for way too early, and then well look at that next. I cant read. Thanks, t. J. No, really, this is, like anyway, well have an exclusive conversation with the president. Well be airing it on monday on morning joe. Very exciting. Well be up at nashua. And New Hampshire, a swing state that could make a big difference. Think about this. Lets say mitt romney wins in the south. And we talked a little bit about this yesterday. But mitt romney wins in the south. They split nevada and colorado, which i think a lot of people thinks going to happen. And somehow mitt romney wins ohio and New Hampshire. Hes then at 268. The romney people think and we talked to some maine guys last night think that romney wins the second district. And that locks it at 269269. Does New Hampshire matter . Yeah. New hampshire matters. Thats why the president s going to be up there. Well be there, too. Coming up this morning, chuck todd, moderator of meet the press, david gregory, president ial historian Douglas Brinkley and the Washington Posts eugene washington. Is president obama losing his edge among women . Thats one of the stories in the politico playbook. First bill karins with the latest on Hurricane Sandy. Good morning. If you want to know the latest on sandy, the trend was a little further to the south, a little more impact for areas like virginia, delaware and maryland and maybe a little less impact in northern new england. First things first, the hurricane is only about 150 miles due east of West Palm Beach this morning. Floridas going to get brushed by the storm. Periods of rain, gusty winds and definitely huge waves. You can look at the storm. It does not look much like a hurricane. Youre going to hear the word hybrid a lot over the next three to four days. If it sucks in that cooler, drier air on the southern side, it will probably become an extra tropical or hybrid storm this weekend. Heres the forecast from the hurricane center. Of course, it parallels the southeast coast. What a lot of people are focusing on is where it makes landfall. Im not so concerned with landfall. This isnt a katrina or rita where theres an eye wall or anything. This is going to be a big, broad storm kind of like irene. The strongest winds may be 100 to 150 miles north. Southern jersey, delaware, maryland, the highest winds maybe up there in connecticut and new york city. Its a big, broad storm. Thats the most important thing. And if youre north of that center, we have big issues and big concerns with storm surge and coastal flooding. That will probably be the epic ending to this storm. Thats probably what everyone will remember is what happens to the beaches in new jersey, possibly connecticut, rhode island and long island if the storm does come ashore down there in southern jersey. All of these little lines are possible paths. We still havent ruled out a direct impact into areas of new england either. Theres still some questions to be answered. The bottom line is starting on sunday afternoon and evening, midatlantic and northeast, its too late to prepare. You have today, you have tomorrow and then be prepared to stay in your house with your family and kids. Most of monday and maybe even into tuesday. Ill have updates throughout the show here. Stay tuned. New york city, sunrise coming up. You could see the direct impact of the storm come monday. Youre watching morning joe brewed by starbucks. Where others fail, droid powers through. Introducing the new droid razr maxx hd by motorola. Now more than ever droid does. 24 past the hour. Time now to take a look at the morning papers. The wall street journal. Iran is funding aid projects and investing in intelligence infrastructure in afghanistan, anticipating the withdrawal of u. S. Forces in 2014. Although tehran spends far less than america does in that country, the report says irans grassroots work is beginning to give its leaders widespread influence in afghanistan. The new york times, despite humble beginnings, the family of chinas Prime Minister controls nearly 2. 7 billion in assets. Wow now worth more than 120 million. Man, living the American Dream in china. Yeah. And according to the times, china blocked access to the newspapers site after the article about his familys wealth was published. Its good work if you can get it. Washington post, the threat of the fiscal cliff has wiped out 1 million jobs with companies postponing major purchases and letting positions go unfilled. The report from the National Association of manufacturers predicts if tax increases and sequestration went into effect, 6 million jobs would be lost through 2014, sending unemployment towards 12 . From our parade of papers, the Seattle Times. Boeing is encouraging its suppliers to outsource work to mexico and is even Encouraging Companies to attend a workshop in chicago to learn more about how to outsource. According to the times, boeing said in a letter that mexico offers Aerospace Companies a number of advantages, and the company even offered to waive the fee for suppliers interested in attending the education sessions. Huh. All right. Thats terrific. Mika, can i talk about the really important stuff . Last night i was a Ronald Mcdonald im sorry. No, thats okay. I was at a Ronald Mcdonald charity and met a young man who said he was in your third grade class, and he described you as scrawny, nerdy, quiet and sweet. Wow how times have changed. If you want to hear more about that, well, you can read about it on the cover story of parade magazine. Whos talking about that . Pippa middleton. Shes in this weeks issue. She talks about her newfound life in the spotlight and a scrawny Mika Brzezinski. Youre still scrawny. And very sweet. Speaking of sweet nerdy, too. Lets go right now to our good friends in washington, d. C. , and see whats inside the politico playbook with politicos own scrawny executive editor, jim vandehei. Jim, the vikings last night in the black and Blue Division got pummeled. As a packers fan, you had to love that. I love it any time the vikings get pummeled. Im a little bit more worried that half of our team is now on injured reserve. Ill take a vikings smackdown any day. You know, were going to talk about the president going after the women vote, trying to get it back in his corner. First let me ask you, jim, i know its frustrating for you, too, a lot of people come up to you and ask you whats going on. Of course, you cant really tell them because our good friends in the Obama Campaign and our good friends in the Romney Campaign are both privately, when they know theyre not playing for the cameras, i dont know. We have no idea. This could go either way. Its crazy. But what about these polls . Like ohio polls come out that show the president ahead by five Percentage Points. And the second they come out, everybody on the right says its skewed unfairly on one way. And then you look at these National Polls. And democrats say it doesnt matter because romneys running up a big advantage in the deep south. What is just your gut about the direction this campaigns moving in its final 10, 11 days and what all these conflicting polls mean. I dont think its that much different from what you guys have been saying on the set today. I do think theres clearly momentum on the National Side for romney. But in the states, if you just go state by state, things look slightly better for barack obama. Its not a partisan statement. Its talk to any pollster whos in ohio. Nobody actually has romney up in ohio. There are a few pollsters, conservative groups who now have it at even where it was many points down before. But its not clear that theres the kind of trend that you would need for romney. And so the questions going to be, will it break late . I think were going to go into Election Night having no clue if its breaking one a way or the other. Im in virginia and i have a lot of friends still in wisconsin. And almost everybody i talk to whos undecided doesnt seem any closer to becoming decided today than they were two months ago. It seems like this race is just locked in time from what it was two months ago where people felt like im ready for change, but im not convinced romneys the right solution. It feels like they have that exact same opinion today, which is why i think these polls are going to be just like they are today a week and a half from now. The lead story on politico, obama tries to regain women voter edge. Has he lost some ground there . Again, it depends which polls youre looking at. Right. Theres no doubt hes lost some of his gender edge from last time. He won women by 13 in 2008. Theres few polls that show him maintaining that advantage which is one of the reasons hes losing in most National Polls. Theres been some polls that show it very close among women. Theres still some that show it somewhere in the 8 to 10 range. I think both campaigns think its somewhere around 8 points. He needs that cushion to win, particularly in those swing states. Clearly romneys going to win men. And so it comes down to can he win over women . And its remarkable because if you look at the ads, you look at the speeches and you look at the areas where theyre fighting, suddenly abortion is one of the hot issues in national politics. Obama had that line in the debate the other night like the 80s called and wanted their Foreign Policy back. The 80s called. They want their social debates back. Its front and center to me is unusual because i dont know many people who are debating it or actually talking about serious changes in washington. And jim, our country is facing an economic cliff, the likes of which we havent faced, gosh, in decades. Youve got ceos that are rallying together saying to washington, wake up, guys. Wake up, women. Were facing a catastrophe here. And my gosh, were spending the last 10, 11 days with an emphasis on these divisive social wedge issues. And not to mention, its not a distant fight. The minute the elections over, we head into a lameduck session where tons of tax cuts expire. Where automatic defense cuts kick in. Joe biden is in oshkosh. They had to cut 500 jobs because theyre anticipating reductions in defense spending. You saw that National Association of manufacturers report where theyre warning about the consequences of any inaction on the fiscal cliff, that it could cost literally hundreds of thousands of jobs. The stuff isnt a joke. Its real stuff that people have to deal with immediately. Jim vandehei, thank you. Take care. Have a good weekend. You, too. When we come back, the tigers get chased out of san francisco. Well have full highlights from game two of the world series next in sports. You mean Mike Barnicle was wrong . Yes, of course. Stay top of mind with customers . From deals that bring them in with an offer. To social media promotions that turn fans into customers. To events that engage and create buzz. To emails that keep loyal customers coming back, our easytouse tools will keep you in front of your customers. See whats right for you at constantcontact. Com try. To meet the needs of my growing business. But how am i going to fund it . And i have to find a way to manage my cash flow better. [ female announcer ] our wells fargo bankers are here to listen, offer guidance and provide you with options tailored to your business. Weve loaned more money to Small Businesses than any other bank for ten years running. So come talk to us to see how we can help. Wells fargo. Together well go far. Keys, keys, keys, keys, keys. Well, hes not very handsome to look at [ sighs ] oh, hes shaggy and he eats like a hog [ male announcer ] the volkswagen jetta. Available with advanced keyless technology. Control everything from your pocket, purse, or wherever. Thats the power of german engineering. That dirty, old eggsuckin dog time for some sports now. Game two of the world series between the giants and tigers. Lets get to the highlights. No score in the top of the second inning. Delmon young pulls one down the third baseline that will end up bouncing around in the left field corner. Prince fielder all 275 pounds of him look at him go go go out at the plate. The tigers dont like the call from the umpire. But the replay, it shows fielder is out. By a hair. And the game remains scoreless. Scary moment here in the bottom of the second. Doug pfister takes a line drive right off the head. It bounces into the outfield with a hit. Amazing he pfister would stay in the game. He said after the game that hes fine. Of course, he was tasting purple the rest of the night, but still, the guy has a hard head. Scoreless in the sixth. Giants starter madison ba baumgartner gets omar infante. Gregor blanco lays down the beautiful bunt just inside the foul line to load the bases. Giants would eventually score in the inning. Thats all theyd need. Theyd win game two by a final of 20 and go up 20. The series moves to detroit tomorrow for game three. Finally, tim tebow in the news again. Hes added yet another award to his trophy case, but this one, not quite as good as the heisman. In a recent Sports Illustrated survey of players, tim was overwhelmingly chosen as the most overrated player in the league. They gave him the dubious distinction of being the most overrated. Hes yet to score a touchdown as a role player with the jets this season, but theyre not giving him a chance so you cant knock him for that. Tebow can take comfort in the fact that the starting quarterback, mark sanchez, tied for second as one of the most overrated players in the nfl. Sanchez, of course, ranks dead last in completion percentage in the league, and hes 23rd in passing yards. Also, michael vick of the philadelphia eagles, number four as being overrated. That says everything you need to know about the jets right there. About new york. Thats what it says. Actually, you know what . Its nothing new for tim tebow because last year, in a similar poll by sporting news, they had tebow in the top spot. And sanchez, of course, in the third spot. A lot of this, though, has to do all tebow does is win games. Come on, now. Tim tebow, donny deutsch, first of all, an extraordinary brand. Yes. People know it. Theres a lot of jealousy in the nfl. And by the way, please, if youre saying that tim tebow is one of the most overrated guys last year, he takes the Denver Broncos team with a losing record, he turns them around. He puts them on a wild winning streak, beats beats pittsburgh. The Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs. Dont call this guy overrated. There was a quarterback named eli manning who won the super bowl, probably didnt get onetenth the hype of tebow. Its percentage of hype versus percentage of productivity. I think thats the jealousy and thats the overrated. I think hes played 22 plays this year. By the way, thats not his fault. If the jets arent going to play him, they need to let him go. Id put him in. The jets are looking pretty good. Up next, wes moore joins us for the mustread opinion pages. Keep it right here on morning joe. I dont spend money on gasoline. I am probably going to the gas station about once a month. Last time i was at a gas station was about. I would say. Two months ago. I very rarely put gas in my chevy volt. I go to the gas station such a small amount that i forget how to put gas in my car. [ male announcer ] and its not just these owners giving the volt high praise. Volt received the j. D. Power and associates appeal award two years in a row. What if i forget to vote . If you forget . Yeah. Well, i have a plan for that, jimmy. You do . I have a good plan. Should we take a look . Election day election day up and at em. Up and at em. Move it. Its election day. Lets go. Get your shoes on. Up, up, up okay. Its time to vote. You can do it. Go, go, go out the door. Out the door. And eat some carrots. Im barack obama, and i approved this message. Wow, thats one way to do it. Yes. Got to get out the vote. We have the mustread opinion pages. Fantastic. At 42 past the hour. And wes moore joins us. Good morning. Good to have you with us. Heres part of the Washington Posts editorial, four more years. Case might be still be made for obama. If mr. Romney were more likely to promote American Security and leadership abroad, or if the challenger had shown temperament, capacity and character. In fact, not one of these is true. We were disappointed that mr. Obama allowed the bipartisan recommendations of his Fiscal Commission to wither and die and that he and Speaker John Boehner failed to seal a fiscal deal in the summer of 2011. Mr. Obama alienated congress and Business Leaders by isolating himself inside a tight white house circle that manages to be both arrogant and thinskinned. But economic headwinds and an uncompromising opposition explain some of these failures and render that much more impressive the substantial accomplishments of mr. Obamas first term. Well, thats one way of endorsing a president. Wes, what do you think . Well, you know, its interesting because it actually has if you read on in the editorial, in the endorsement, it actually has a lot of shades of Colin Powells endorsement. Where basically he talks about its not even so much about people understand the challenges the president faces, but its not just about mitt romney entering the white house. Its the entire team and the entire establishment that mr. Romney would then bring into the white house. And so how exactly when you think about the challenges that the country faces, will that team and that assemblage of individuals, how will they look at the country Going Forward which is one of the shades that the Washington Post brings up as well. Charles krauthammer. Obama stoops, doesnt conquer. Throughout the debate, obama kept it up, slashing, interjecting, interrupting, desperate to gain the upper hand by insult, if necessary. Romneys entire strategy in both was to gain the status he achieved in debate number one as a plausible alternative president. He therefore went bipartisan, accommodating, above the fray and above all nonthreatening. Thats what reagan did in 1980. What do you do . Romney chose to do a reagan. Dont quarrel, speak softly, meet the threshold. Well soon know whether steady as she goes was the right choice. Was that the right choice, donny . Thats the point i was making before. Youve got this kind of shaky president , and youve got to give people theres an advertising term, permission to believe in a product. And he had to and i think he accomplished it. Give people permission. Well, what the heck. And thats exactly the point i was trying to make earlier and much better articulated in the Washington Post. Do you think i mean, really, this did come down to, steve, the threshold test being passed by mitt romney. We thought that governor romney was shaky in the third debate when you talk about Foreign Policy. But his tone, i thought, pitch perfect. I thought he was probably reassuring to people who thought that he was going to be a brazen neocon and perhaps donnys right, maybe he met that threshold. Yeah, i think thats the case. I think we all agree that the president did a better job on the substance and did a better job overall in that debate, but romney kind of did what he had to do and managed to keep himself in the game and keep the momentum from the first debate on his side. And so i think he did pass that threshold. That moment in that debate and i still dont know how i felt about it was when obama went on the attack and romney said, look, this is not about you and i. This is bigger. This is about our wellbeing as a country. Im curious how that moment played on the minutetominute polls. You know the moment im referring to . Yeah. And also i know a lot of people then, you know, attacked the president and said they thought that the comments were glib and they thought, you know, it was unfair the attacks. Well, fact is, you know, on the issues of Foreign Policy and specifically on issues they were debating at that time, these are really important issues. And its important not just to understand the facts of them but the context of the decisions as well. And quite honestly, you know, when people were making the comments about president obama four years ago about the whole celebrity thing when he was, you know, celebrating overseas, people can make an argument whether that was fair or unfair. But the fact is, when you become the president of the united states, you also become the commander in chief. And having a very clear and assertive understanding of what that means, it matters. But i think when people look back on these debates, the first debate was obviously an incredibly consequential moment in this campaign, however the election ends. I think the second and third debates will kind of disappear from memory. I think theyll not have any lasting impact. So steve, tell us what youre involved in right now. Weve heard about ceos that are coming together and sending a message to republicans and democrats alike in washington. Grow up. Get together. Put our fiscal house in order. Talk about the organization and what youre doing and what it hopes to accomplish. And why it took so long. I dont know about that part. So yesterday, we announced the campaign to fix the debt over 80 ceos of Major Company from general electric, honeywell, goldman sachs, jpmorgan chase. You name it. And the idea is basically, its time to deal with the fiscal problem, that going over the cliff is completely unacceptable. You heard earlier some of the consequences of what would happen if we did that. So what are you guys recommending . So what were recommending is essentially some kind of simpsonbowleslike approach. Were not wedded to one particular plan, but the idea that you have to have meaningful deficit reduction. You have to keep the debttogdp ratio from continuing to go up. And it has to be balanced. And everything has to be on the table. There have to be some revenues, some spending reductions, and you have to deal with entitlements. So that means yeah, slow down the rate of growth for entitlement spending, raise taxes through a sort of tax reform. Again, a balanced approach. And these corporate ceos were saying that was fine with them. That they would line up and support more taxes if that meant also less spending on entitlements and other areas. Ive called a lot of people and asked for a lot of things over the years, causes of one sort or another. I have never made calls like this and gotten such a positive response from every ceo. Ceos are willing to have taxes go up as long as, in their minds, as long as its in the context of something meaningful happening. They dont want to just pay more taxes. But if you say pay more taxes and were going to have a 4 trillion deficit reduction package, then theyre on board. Theres incredible enthusiasm for this. Whether it will matter in washington, well see. I think this is great. Now, the question i have is, it wasnt necessarily ceos that blocked simpsonbowles or any type of simpsonbowleslike legislation being passed. How exactly do we attack that . How exactly not to mention we have the ceos on board but the other constituency groups that were much more vocal about simpsonbowles before. Were reaching out to a lot of other constituency groups, but ceos have a lot of influence in washington and they havent really been using it for this purpose. And the idea is to use it to counter some of those other groups that have other agendas. But we are going to try to bring in as many as we can. Weve raised over 35 million. Its going to be a national effort. Its going to include state and local efforts, social media and its certainly going to include having ceos spend a lot of time in washington with legislators trying to get them to be sensible. And thats critical. If you get a call and youre a congressman or congresswoman and say congresswoman, jamie dimons on the phone, you pick up the phone. Lloyd blankfein is on the phone, you pick up the phone. Especially people that hire a lot of ceos in the district, i need you to vote this way. I am looking. It has a huge impact. And the ceos are going to be on the phone. They are going to make those calls. Yeah. Okay. Wes moore, thank you so much. Thanks a lot, wes. Well be right back with willies week in review. [ male announcer ] humana and walmart have teamed up to bring you a lowpriced Medicare Prescription Drug plan. With a low National Plan premium. And copays as low as one dollar. Saving on your medicare prescriptions is easy. So youre free to focus on the things that really matter. Call humana at 18008084003. Or go to walmart. Com for details. How theyll live tomorrow. For more than 116 years, Ameriprise Financial has worked for their clients futures. Helping millions of americans retire on their terms. When they want. Where they want. Doing what they want. Ameriprise. The strength of a leader in retirement planning. The heart of 10,000 advisors working with you onetoone. Together for your future. So joe didnt like this, and now hes back in the control room changing it. I dont know. He doesnt think that yeah, that works. All right. Its friday. And its time for willies week in review. I have a deal for the president , a deal that i dont believe he can refuse. At number three, trumping the shark. A check immediately for 5 million. Donald j. Trump addressed the nation this week from high atop new yorks number one building. Once again demanding something or other from president obama. The check will be given within one hour after he releases all of the records. The president had a theory about trumps obsession with his personal documents. This all dates back to when we were growing up together in kenya. Yeah. We just wish we could have the old donald back, the one who instead of birth certificates pursued, evaluated and rendered a verdict upon topless photos of miss california. The pictures taken were acceptable. They were fine. In many cases they were actually lovely pictures. At number two, the last samurai. A kansas city man this week entered a chicken joint carrying his own utensils. His order, though, was not for a threepiece dinner box with a couple of sides. It was for all the money in the register. Was no one harmed in this throwback 12th century japanstyle robbery, one had to wonder how much sweeter this could have been if only the young samurai had come dressed as gumby. Gumbys a pal for you and the number one story of the week. Governor, we also have fewer horses and bay ononbayonets. An illuminating debate over 19th century warfare and 20th century board games. The question is not a game of battleship. You sunk my battle suspect. When mitt romney wasnt agreeing with the president profusely i want to underscore the same point the president made. I felt the same a the president did. I supported his action there. I think romneys leaning obama. He was accusing the commander in chief of weakness. The president began what ive called an apology tour. Nothing, governor romney just said is true. Out on the campaign trail, president obama delighted in his own diagnosis of governor romney with a rare political condition. Its called romnesia. This is a curable condition. And obamacare covers preexisting conditions. The president appeared remarkably composed, at least outwardly, given the fact the clock was ticking ominously toward zero hour. The records must be given by october 31st at 5 00 in the afternoon. Wow. Up next, were going to bring in president ial historian Douglas Brinkley to talk about his interview with president obama in Rolling Stone magazine. Keep it right here on morning joe. [ female announcer ] want to spend less and retire with more . At etrade, our free online tools and Retirement Specialists can help you build a personalized plan and execute it with a wide range of low cost investments. Get a great plan and low cost investments at etrade. Get a great plan and low cost investments very sore looking kinda blistery. It was like a red rash. Like somebody had set a bag of hot charcoal on my neck. I was a firefighter for 24 years. But, i have never encountered such a Burning Sensation until i had the shingles. I remember it well. I was in the back yard doing yard work. I had this irritation going on in my lower neck. I changed shirts because i thought there was something in the collar of the shirt irritating my neck. And i couldnt figure out what was going on. I had no idea it came from chickenpox. I always thought shingles was associated with people. A lot older than myself. I can tell you from experience, it is bad. Its something you never want to encounter. For more of the inside story, visit shinglesinfo. Com playing a lone hand my life begins today fly by night away from here change my life again fly by night, goodbye my dear my ship isnt coming and i just cant pretend oww [ male announcer ] careful, youre no longer invisible in a midsize sedan. The volkswagen passat. Winner of a motor trend midsize sedan comparison. Thats the power of german engineering. I know nothings the same governor romney had endorsed personhood amendment in mississippi. No, i remember that. Even the people of mississippi rejected that position. Well, romney also rejected that position as well. Well, the president calls it romnesia. I have my own what i call mittology. Shouldnt all that be my job . Shouldnt i be the one thinking up these very clever things . You know what . How about that, though. You guys do that. Let me go write some laws. Welcome back to morning joe. Donny deutsch and sam stein are still with us. Joining the table, president ial historian Douglas Brinkley. He interviewed president obama for the latest issue of Rolling Stone magazine. Very good to have you with us on set. Thanks for having me. Lets go back to that shot. T. J. , is that a timelapse shot . Is it still dark in washington, d. C. . So whens daylight savings time end . It better be soon. The kids at the bus stop. Is it this weekend . I lived there and i didnt realize it. Its 7 00 a. M. On the east coast. Yeah. Thats armageddon. Wake up, everybody. Thats unbelievable. Dark days. I guess we have two weeks until day light savings time end. You know what . Youd better put miners hats on your kids when they go to the bus stop. Its dangerous. We have 11 days until election day. Two swing states the president won in 2008 and is fighting to hang on to. According to the nbc wall street journal marist poll, in colorado the race is dead even, 48 48 among likely voters. The president s fivepoint lead from a month ago is gone. And in nevada, the president is holding on to a threepoint advantage, 50 47 , a slight uptick for mr. Obama from last month. We should note this polling was conducted after the third and final debate. And if there was any doubt about romneys momentum, look at what has happened in virginia. A new fox news poll shows romney now leading by two points. Last month the same poll had obama up seven. In the abc Washington Post daily tracking poll of likely voters, romney has taken a threepoint lead, 50 47 . On monday the president was leading 49 48 . And on the economy, when asked who voters trust more on that issue, romney now has a sizeable ninepoint lead. A ninepoint lead, donny deutsch, on the issue thats obviously the most important issue out there. You look at mitt romney leading in the National Polls. There seems to be a trend in this abc polling and some other polls. If youre barack obama, are you concerned that youre losing the fight over the economy . Well, im not concerned obviously those numbers would be different, but im feeling better because just about every number shows an up tick no matter somehow you slice it. Thats not resonating to the American People. Whats built into romneys brand is im a business guy. I think you get an automatic nod, im better for the economy, this is what ive done for a living. I dont think thats a surprise there, and i dont think theres a dramatic shift there. If im obama, the real numbers, the real economic numbers, the employment number, obviously weve got one more coming out, the housing start numbers, the manufacturing numbers. Every number shows we are moving in the right direction. And the most important number, the gallup number, and Steve Rattner talked about this earlier, for the first time more people are feeling theyre doing better than a year ago, and thats the first time in about five years. Sam, the race is deadlocked, man. Its unbelievable. You look at colorado, deadlocked. Virginia, for the most part, deadlocked. It does seem that ohio is yeah. Is where its at. The election. Weve been saying it for a week or two. But that becomes more clear by the day. Yeah. Its tough to compare the numbers from september to now because so much has happened. I know its only been a month, but so much has happened. Right now were in a place where i think its static. Youve had a series of polls. Theres too many polls. Theres eight tracking polls. Its enough to drive you crazy. They all tell about the same thing, which is you have mitt romney with a slight lead nationally. Or so it appears. And you have these state polls where obama is just sort of hanging on in the midwest. And you know, when you talk to people in the Obama Campaign, they constantly say like in 2008 primary with Hillary Clinton, its a math game. And all they need is ohio, wisconsin and nevada. Wisconsin and nevada look fairly solid for obama. And ohios the trick. And after that, hes the president. And they look at that and they say, okay, we could be in a better place. September was a better time, but it was always going to be close. We still have that Clear Pathway to victory. Were going to hold on to ohio. Mika, you obviously talk a lot to your friends in the obama white house. How are they feeling right now . You know, they say theyre feeling good. I dont think either side has any reason to feel good right now. I think theyre both probably just trying to get through the next 11 days and trying to figure out how to pull it through. I think if we both if we all go around this table in our guts, i think we would all check obama at this point. We can give 100 reasons on each side. Gun to the head, if you asked me right now put it this way. Romney would probably rather be in obamas position right now than obama and romney. You know what . Well said. If it comes down to ohio, you would think it would be. You would think in terms of the data there and how people are doing and what has happened in ohio through this administration, economically you would think you would think. He would take ohio. You just dont know. And you just dont know because you never know how things are going to swing the final weekend. You know, there have been a lot of revisionists this year that have been saying oh, you know, the reagan race was never really that close. That is such pure horse crap. I was there. Nobody mika was there. Nobody i was there. Not alive. Baby boy. Nobody knew, douglas, nobody knew the friday or saturday before the tuesday election who was going to win. It wasnt until the weekend polls came out, the internals, that jimmy carter went to the back of air force one on sunday, hugged his wife and cried because he knew it had slipped away. That happens on weekends before big elections like this. Yeah. And we have a lot of days left. But in the case of carter, remember, he still had those hostages in iran. There was always that hope of that october surprise that theyre going to all get released. And as that started not happening, i think it hurt carter. And also, a little bit like this years cycle, reagan proved in the first debate that he wasnt an extremist, that he was somehow palatable, that he was an alternative to carter who was having some dismal luck with the economy, doubledigit inflation, long gasoline lines. And hence, reagan made the case. I dont think its going to be like 80 this year. Im looking at 2000 or 2004 with it all being about ohio. So close. So close. Now, you got close to president obama. You interviewed him. Of course, one word in this interview which we cannot repeat on this show is getting a lot of play. But obviously, a lot more in this interview. And im struck by how personal the battle seems to be between barack obama and mitt romney. Barack obama does not seem to respect mitt romney. Well, look. Agreed. David axelrod, i thinks, one of the most Incredible Campaign strategists of all time. And he created a lets beat up romney particularly in ohio in the spring campaign. And it may be the firewall ohio, may be working out. Im from ohio. I grew up near toledo. I went to the ohio state university, and i was there this summer talking to people. And its pretty strong for obama. And that was over the summer because people started feeling that they advertise the let detroit go bankrupt. I think mitt romneys fatal mistake is that oped piece, whether you read it and say it made sense, that stuck badly in places like toledo where chrysler is now making, you know, jeep wranglers and firemen and policemen were able to continue getting jobs. Im just looking at a portion in your piece, paul nitze, the policy guru of the Truman Administration once told me that the problem with historians like myself is that were always hunting for documents to analyze. What our ilg tends to forget is that inaction is also policy. And there is some criteria in which this president this applies to, this concept. I put that in the piece only because inaction i mean, what president obama has to tell his base is look at the things i didnt let happen, meaning im defending im defending roe versus wade, were not drilling in the arctic. Medicaid and medicare is not going to become stop the recession from hemorrhaging. Stopped the recession. Its a hard thats a hard sell, though. Its a hard sell, and i dont think its the main sell, but it is one that i think is part of the president s arsenal. Let me ask you a question. You said words that will plague romney are let detroit go bankrupt. Another one thats going to plague romney is selfdeport. You have a huge swath of hispanic voters that are just not going to vote for romney. And it really comes down to turnout. Youre an historian on this. Has there ever been that much of a disparity like that between, you know, minority groups and white voters . Not when its literally 100 of the africanamerican vote for barack obama, 0 for romney. But the latino vote is crucial on the strategy you mentioned of nevada. Look how many times the president s gone to nevada. He even prepped for the denver debate in nevada. Little picked up on the press, but he went to Cesar Chavezs burial site up in the mountains of california. And with ken salazar, a great latino representative of colorado, his interior secretary, they saved all of la paz, cesar chavez, the great labor organizers home in person tuity by the federal government, now a federal government. That played well in hispanic newspapers around the country because chavez is the Martin Luther king in many ways for latinos. So you see the president s 70 or more with latinos, and it could make a difference just in nevada alone being able to pick that up. You spent time with our president. And obviously, its a great piece. What did you see in his eyes . What are we not feeling . Did you see a guy empowered . Nervous . Just as guy to guy, you sitting there, walk away. Hes unflappable. And hes ready to roll. I asked him about denver, what went wrong. I didnt get anything new. He said it was a bad game. And you have to kind of accept that. I asked him where he heard about the 47 , boca raton moment of romney. And he started laughing. He said probably in ohio. Because thats where im always at. I think i read the transcript in ohio. Lets call it ohio. I really truly get the feeling that ohio is it. If they can hold on to it, and the polls have been steady there, they can win that, the formula looks pretty good. Exactly what you said. Wisconsin, nevada. But hes i caught him october 11th, and he was putting on a motive, im ready to fight for this thing. And ive noticed on the trail and the last two debates, he seems quite energized, at least compared to the denver performance. You obviously look at his legacy as well. What is one term in Barack Obamas legacy historically . I threw at him, because we were talking about the new deal, i said youve done these things. Gay marriage or universal health care, obamacare, Affordable Care act. What is all of this . I said would you be comfortable calling if the fair shake in history in a shorthand . He said yeah, thats coming from an historian, thats fair. I dont mind a fair shake. That would help people to see what hes doing. But i more see him as at this moment trying to bring the base out saying you might be a little disapointed in some things, but beyond me lies the romney team. And they will dismantle a lot of things dear and near to the hearts of democrats, progressives and so dont abandon me now. Thats so true. Ive talked to so Many Democrats who say, you know, i want him to win again, but to be honest, if he didnt, id be okay except for the fact that romney would take away obamacare. And people are really nervous about not just unraveling this historic piece of legislation, but tarnishing the legacy of the man who accomplished it. Thats a real motivator. I want to pick up on colin powell yesterday. What might be an interesting advertising strategy, scare strategy if im working for obama. Okay, youre getting romney. Who is he bringing along with him . Yes. Who is he bringing along . Karl rove coming back . Who is the kind of band of merry men. Thats the most come peming thing. Powell said his endorsement was i know a lot of the guys that romneys bringing in. And i think scare him with the team thats coming in. Okay, romney, you may have accepted him. Whos behind him . So is health care the president s greatest historical legacy . Yes. And i asked him flat out, do you mind being called obamacare, meaning historians and indexes of history books, it says obamacare. He said ill be very proud of that. I hope so. But, of course, he needs a second term to make that firm. If it is, it will be seen as the last great bit of the social compact with the American People of the 20th and 21st century. And historically, what was his greatest failure in the first temple . One could argue that pushing it could be voting obamacare first instead of jobs act in those first six months. But what he pulled out of all of that was the jobs for ohio by doing the bailout and putting those hundreds of billions of dollars into that helped resuscitate that economy. Thats whats playing out for him. You look at the Washington Post editorial endorsing the president this morning. They talk about some of the president s failings. They talk about an overly insular white house, a white house that basically picked fights with the Business Community that it didnt have to take. A white house that wasnt as bipartisan as advertised. Do you get the sense that the president and his team have learned those lessons from the first term, and if they are reelected, theyre going to be a bit more open, a bit more expansive and a bit less insulated . I think that debt ceiling showdown that occurred in, you know, the summer before last, i think it opened up the president s eyes. And if you look at his kansas speech where he echoed Theodore Roosevelts new nationalism speech of 1912, thats when that 991 came in. And i think it was at that moment that he realized he couldnt be a legislative president. If its a divided country and a congress there are no more moderate republicans with him to do business with in his mind. I was with lowell weikert a night ago, and hes for obama. Weikert is republican for obama. And he said, look, our whole brand of moderate republicans are gone. So the president can only stand up, you know, work with the hard right, hes going to have use executive power. Thats theodore roosevelt. But the shortcoming of the president is he is a mediator, and he doesnt like to call names. Who stole from wall street . What team . Who on george w. Bush . Is it karl roves coming back . Take a slap at Dick Cheney Bush Foreign Policy, but he doesnt like using names. It will be the previous administration. And some of his base, i think, feels frustrated by that. Theres not that wanting to sock em. He used a name in here. I forced it on. Id say thats a name. Hes got no problem with that. That was a question about your 6yearold daughter or oh, well, we had two things that went on with the young people. And one is i told a story of being in ohio where i saw the president bring up one brought to a rope line an 11yearold and a 14yearold to shake his hand. And the 11yearold came and wanted her tshirt signed. And the president signed it. And he said, you know, great. And then when he went to the 14yearold, he said, youre getting a little old. Youre going to ruin a really good shirt. Im not signing it. So here it is with this commotion of a rope line, and our president is differentiating, you know. And i thought it was very telling of his personality. And then hold on. Did he sign the shirt or not . He signed only the one. He would not sign an older one because it would have ruined that shirt. Thats the dad. All right. Douglas brinkley, thank you so much. Fascinating interview in Rolling Stone. Obama and the road ahead. The latest issue. Thank you so much. Up next, nbc news political director chuck todd live on the campaign trail in ohio. Plus, a preview of meet the press with moderator david gregory. And later, Hurricane Sandy bears down on the east coast. Bill karins will tell us where its going to hit. Thats ahead on morning joe. Well be right back. Humans even when we cross our ts and dot our is, we still run into problems. Namely, other humans. Which is why, at Liberty Mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify. See what else comes standard at libertymutual. Com. Liberty mutual insurance. Responsibility. Whats your policy . 22 past the hour. Joining us now in washington, the moderator of meet the press, david gregory. And in cincinnati, nbc news chief White House Correspondent and political director and host of the daily rundown, chuck todd. We could talk about the miami hurricanes or the new nbc poll. Reporter honestly, its a bye week. You know what . And miami is a threepoint underdog, so, you know. In a bye week. So lets talk about the swing state polls, colorado just doesnt seem like it could get any closer, 48 48 . And in nevada, barack obama actually picks up a point. Hes been losing points in the National Polls. Hes been losing points in the deep south. Hes been losing points in a lot of other polls. But in nevada, im telling you, we talked about it before, that is a stubborn swing state that is staying with barack obama. Reporter it is. And i think, you know, look. Its tight. Its closer. But boy, that hispanic vote out there, and i had been talking to folks on the republican side, and they just feel as if it is just so well organized on the democratic side. It is going to be hard for them to overcome the hispanic advantage. But i just want to focus on colorado. And remember on monday, joe, when we went through this and you were, like, well, its all ohio. And i said hey, wait a minute. You realize there is a plausible not just a wacky scenario the plausible scenario that has romney winning florida, virginia and ohio and still coming up short because of colorado. We could be ending up sitting and waiting for colorado to be the pivot state. And it is, you know, you cant get much closer than tie. You cant get much closer. And david gregory, as were looking at these polls and trying to pick up trends, because thats what you do when youre looking at the polls, because a lot of them are not going to be deadly accurate, but you look at the trend lines. Youve got these swing states tightening up by the day, but youve got the National Polls, todays abc news Washington Post poll showing mitt romney picking up four points this week, now three points ahead in the National Poll. A lot of americans out there have to be frustrated as well. You have all the answers. You can tell us. Whats with all the desperate polls . You know, i think theres a lot of different factors including the gender gap issues that we talk a lot about. The president s margin among women that has been shrinking. That hes certainly talking about, trying to recapture that edge. I think thats important. Theres also the demdemographic. Weve talked about this before. Chuck raises it. Demographics are really the issue that deliver this one way or the other, whether its the hispanic vote or even if you break up a state like ohio, as ive been talking to republicans who look at romneys share of the white vote. Think about workingclass whites in ohio, whether he can get up to a certain threshold that hes got in other states like virginia. And if not, whats holding him back . It may come back to the auto bailout and the fact that the president has more inroads with workingclass white voters who are autoworkers in a state like ohio where he doesnt have that in other states like virginia. So those are really the things to look at. And you always talk about looking at those trends, looking at a number thats below 50, of course, is important. Even the distinction between a president , an incumbent being at 48 versus 47 . I think its also looking inside those states at those subgroups to see where romney is bringing up his totals. Chuck, can you define what you think is happening in terms of trends with women . Reporter well, i think it has shrunk a little bit. And it depends on and i would slice women up the women dem grsk up between suburban women, married women, that romney is stronger with married white women. With suburban women, its been this swing vote here. And obviously, the president wants to come as close to even, if you will, among suburban white women. I think, if i remember correctly, in 08, he sort of won that group by about a point or two. But that is, you know, thats the target swing vote in northern virginia. The target swing vote in the suburbs of colorado. And thats where the question mark is mourdock, right . Did the mourdock stuff, in the same way that you saw when the Romney Campaign frankly panicked over akin so quickly and the entire Republican Party because at the time the gender gap felt like it was widening, not getting smaller. And just when romney is making some inroads, looking like he is cutting into the gender gap, particularly among this subgroup of women that i told you about, suburban white women, that here comes the mourdock story that could sort of halt that momentum. Yeah, david, its donny. To chucks point, i see that mourdock if im a marketing guy, that is such an emotional issue to really pin back against romney and say, mr. Romney, do you agree with the fact that even a woman who is raped and basically its gods will that they should have that baby, that is such a lightningrod issue, how does obamas campaign not pick up on that and run with it . Well, they are. And theyve been doing that for a couple weeks. Even before mourdock, whether there were other issues, things that came out of the debates, contraception, abortion, governor romneys own words. I think the mourdock issue is much more of an association issue. I may like mitt romney, but do you have too many concerns as a woman about the Republican Party and what it may try to do . Interesting, you dont see it you didnt see it in the debates except for the Vice President talking about the Supreme Court, the issue of roe v. Wade and how it can influence that with the Supreme Court nominees. But i think taking a step back. We can deconstruct all the voting groups. I think whats really important here is you know, i was talking to a voter in virginia yesterday. They said im going to go with romney. I feel like we need fresh ideas, a fresh look at these problems. And im willing to go with him. And i think thats really the battleground right now for some of these remaining swing voters. This has become more of a change election. If you dont believe what the president s saying, you look at his record and say id like to try Something Else and im more comfortable with trying romney now. Are you or arent you . Look, the president is spending the final days here. Less frankly on the glossy document about what the four years look like and more on trust. You cant trust romney as an alternative is the argument. And theres lots that hes seeing on. I really think thats what it comes down to. Do people feel comfortable enough with romney on economic matters, Foreign Affairs becoming important now, and then mixing in the social issues. Am i just comfortable enough with him and the party to put them in charge . Steve rattner . Just to go back to ohio for a second as you guys well know, the democrat has generally underperformed in ohio compared to nationally. In fact, i think in every election except one since 76, a democrat has run a little bit behind in ohio relative to nationally. Now, the polls show obama doing better in ohio than hes doing nationally. The Unemployment Rate in ohio, as you know, is down in the 7 . Do you guys think at the end of the day that obama will outperform in ohio relative to how he does nationally . Reporter steve, i mean, thats youre watching sort of two lines. Youll appreciate this, sort of converging nationally, mitt romneys surge has been among an improvement, if you will, when you look at the various groups, among white men. This advantage he has nationally over obama among white men, 34 points in our poll, it was, among likely voters. So if thats the case nationally, then he should be ahead at this point in time in ohio, and hes not. And its this sort of stubborn part of the vote, if youre romney, it all goes to the auto bailout, and it all sort of is this the track of workingclass white male voters that the president s overperforming with from toledo to akron, if you will. Right up there in the North Central to the northwest part of the state. Chuck, are they comfortable that theyre going to continue team obama theyre going to continue to perform well with these white workingclass voters . Do they fear reporter you know what i compare it to . Its sort of theyre leaking support, but its slow. Right. Reporter and did they build up enough of a lead that they dont leak that by the time election day comes, they are still at 50. 1 . Right. Theyre still ahead. I think thats the issue. The obama team has kept talking about ohio. If you start to see the trend lines change there, that thats the real test for governor romney. I mean, theyre seeing it. You talked about the colorado poll here. And we know what motivates in colorado. Former governor there telling me once, somebody would walk up to him on the street and tell him what the debttogdp ratio was in colorado. Its a huge issue as it is throughout some of the western states. But in ohio, as chuck says, the obama team is looking at even if theyre losing some of that support, until those numbers start to dramatically change in the state and tighten up, thats where they feel everything gets won. So lets talk about an issue that we havent heard a whole lot talked about this year. It was talked about four years ago. And i want to ask you guys if were going to see any residual effects of what happened four years ago. I remember Walking Around every primary night, and chuck, i would ask you, what do the exit polls look like against Hillary Clinton and all these contests . I remember after the fourth or the fifth contest, tim russert, our great friend, just came up to me and goes, hey, listen. Obamas up by seven points. That means he may win by one. And there was this builtin factor that the president always, even in the democratic primaries, always underperformed. If there is the bradley effect and the bradley effect for those that dont know, the Los Angeles Mayor ran statewide, always underperformed. If there is a bradley effect and im skeptical that there is but if there is, its something we need to talk about, i think it would happen in western pennsylvania, eastern ohio where there are so many white workingclass voters. Have you guys picked up any sort of any talk of that at all in the Romney Campaign or in the Obama Campaign that this could be a reality in ohio . Well, i would just say starting with the Romney Campaign, less about that, especially with an incumbent president. But going back months, the Romney Campaign talked about something we also havent talked about, which is the effect of romney being a morman. And does that have an effect on the vote . They had concerns back then about whether it would impede how well they do in the southern part of ohio turning out conservatives. I think that concern may have abated some, but its still one of those unknowns. I pick up less with regard to the bradley effect on president obama, joe. Reporter let me just a warning the way in my experience on exit polling is the more enthusiastic group, the more excited voting group, the more anger, sort of the more angrier even sometimes when its smaller will sometimes overperform. So what did we notice . For instance, you had in the scott walker situation, the antiwalker vote. That was a more firedup base, so they were gung ho to get to the polls even though there wasnt enough of them. And they overperformed, if you will, in the exit poll. We saw that with obama. We saw that with john kerry in 2004. I think heres the thing. I wouldnt be surprised if romney is overdone a little bit in the exit poll. If he overperforms with the real vote is because dont forget electionday voters are going to be more republican than democrat because democrats have done so much of the early vote. And we compensate for it. We do our best to survey it and all that, but dont discount the enthusiasm issue that ends up overcounting some exit poll votes. And i dont buy the bradley effect on an incumbent anymore. I just dont. Not an incumbent. We will see. I will tell you, mika, the Romney Campaign has expressed concern about what david said, and that is the mormon effect. What i tell them is i think theyre dead right, and that means that theyre probably going to only win oklahoma by 39 instead of 41 . Thats something they do need to work on. Utah. Reporter theyre going to only carry every county in oklahoma is what youre saying. Exactly. The president had a great but southern ohio would be the one place where it would matter. Im sorry. The president had a great ground game four years ago. I think theres enough reasons when people are really making a decision to keep him in office, and another added perception thing which had bush reelected is that he is perceived in some cases believed to be extremely strong on Foreign Policy. Which would make the difference possibly. Well see. Chuck todd, thank you very much. Well see you on the daily rundown. David, who do you have this sunday . Governor kasich of ohio, walker of wisconsin and hickenlooper of colorado so weve got them all covered. Coming up from the Washington Post, eugene robinson, also conservative columnist ed morrissey joins the conversation. Well be right back. You cant even say the word conservative. I can do it. Mike rowe here at a ford tell me fiona, whos having a big tire event . Your ford dealer. Who has 11 major brands to choose from . Your ford dealer. Whos offering a rebate . Your ford dealer. Who has the low price tire guarantee. Affording peace of mind to anyone who might be in the market for a new set of tires . Your ford dealer. Im beginning to sense a pattern. Buy four select tires, get a 60 rebate. Use the Ford Service Credit credit card, get 60 more. Thats up to 120. Where did you get that sweater vest . Your ford dealer. [ male announcer ] its time for medicare open enrollment. Are you ready . Time to compare plans and see whats new. You dont have to make changes, but its good to look. Maybe you can find better coverage, save money, or both. And check out the preventive benefits you get after the health care law. Medicare open enrollment. Nows the time. Visit medicare. Gov or call 1800medicare. Monarch of marketing analysis. With the ability to improve roi through seo all by cob. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. You can even take a fullsize or above, and still pay the midsize price. Im going big. [ male announcer ] good choice business pro. Good choice. Go national. Go like a pro. This reduced sodium soup says it may help lower cholesterol, how does it work . You just have to eat it as part of your heart healthy diet. Step 1. Eat the soup. All those veggies and beans, thats what may help lower your cholesterol and well thats easy [ male announcer ] progresso. You gotta taste this soup. Sandy already churning up the water. Singer island, florida. The surf definitely up. A brush for florida. By their standards, just a little bit of beach erosion and on and off rain and gusty winds. We still expect more significant impacts come sunday night, monday and into Tuesday Morning heading up in towards the northeast and northern midatlantic. The storm itself does not look that impressive this morning. Its undergoing that transition in what we call a hybrid storm. Its not going to be a pure hurricane coming into new england. That would be really impressive for this time of year. But its sucking in dry air already. All the thunderstorms and Tropical Weather is on the north side of the storm. What does all this mean as we play this out into the forecast here . The heaviest rains and all the nasty weather will approach the midatlantic on sunday. Hold on one second. Its not actually its not going to come here. Were going to things are going to its going to go out into the atlantic right here. Ill warn you, youve got to be careful with these tracks because theres clips of weather people with these tracks with people standing next to them. No, anyway, thats wrong. Thats wrong. Theres going to be theres what would happen if wind came from the east and push it had west . What do you call that . An east eastern donny, can you help me out . He didnt understand where i was going. Ive got a question right here. If youre this guy right here and then these two overlapping things, what does that mean . Mika, with this whole youtube clip thats about to happen. Seriously, this goes that way. That goes that way. Does that mean people are going like this . Whats happening there . The storms coming for new england monday and tuesday. It looks like a serious blow. Go back and dvr that without the audio. Mika. Vanna white. Vanna mika. More morning joe coming up. Leaving my homeland playing a lone hand my life begins today fly by night away from here change my life again fly by night, goodbye my dear my ship isnt coming and i just cant pretend oww [ male announcer ] careful, youre no longer invisible in a midsize sedan. The volkswagen passat. Winner of a motor trend midsize sedan comparison. Thats the power of german engineering. To bring you a lowpriced Medicare Prescription Drug plan. With a low National Plan premium. And copays as low as one dollar. Saving on your medicare prescriptions is easy. So youre free to focus on the things that really matter. Call humana at 18008084003. Or go to walmart. Com for details. Oh domino all right yeah, hold onne second. Wow look at that. Yeah. Thats terrible. Bill karins. Thats terrible. Is that really on television . Its on youtube. Were not going to. That really happened . Thats not possible. I think so, yeah. I think it was a fake at first. Lets bring in right now Washington Post pulitzer prizewinning columnist and associate editor of the Washington Post and msnbc political analyst. Turn that down. Eugene robinson. In minnesota, this thing is going off the tracks quickly, from hotair. Com, ed morrissey. Mika had for the first time in five years had to say the word conservative, and she stumbled over it terribly. Ed, im going to read from your column on hotair. Com. Okay . Okay. Are you asking his permission . Yes, i am. Heres the funny thing, mika. You dont have to speak with conservatives any differently than liberals. You dont have to talk slower to us. We understand. Are you sure . Are you sure . Maybe. Go ahead. Secondterm agenda. Instead of giving voters a reason to vote for obama, the president and his campaign have made the argument for more than 560 days of you cant possibly be serious about the other guy. Only after getting drubbed in the first debate and unable to unring that bell in two successive debates about obama finally cough up a semblance of a secondterm agenda. Obamas jobs plan pamphlet is regurgitated nonsense mostly resurrected from the 2008 campaign in a desperate attempt to shift strategies at the last minute. Its sole purpose is to reveal finally that this president ran out of gas sblerintellectually politically a long time ago, and his picture book illustrates that very well. I dont know where to start disagreeing with this. Mika, if you want to follow up, then well make sure you can do that in the next break. So ed, i dont think many of the president s own supporters will argue that he doesnt he hasnt laid out an agenda for the next four years thats persuasive. He seems you know, i saw the convention speech. And i said then, he said nothing. Now, he said nothing a lot better than mitt romney said nothing in his convention speech, but i am stunned by both camps lack of a clear vision for the next four years. And i guess the question is, how does that break in the final 11 days of the campaign . Its a great question. I know that you guys have been talking about this, Mark Halperins been on your show talking about this. The nbc poll that was done last week showed that 62 of voters, likely voters, want a major change in policy direction. And i think thats what theyre looking for from both of these campaigns. You were talking about this in a previous segment. I think that the big test here was mitt romneys going to provide a change in direction. Barack obama says that. Mitt romney says that. I dont think theres any debate over that. The question was, is he president ial enough to be a viable alternative . And is he the guy thats going to provide the change in direction . I think thats how this elections going to wind up lining up. The question you could ask about mitt romney is, is he president ial enough, and thats if you agree with fantastical assertions about what youre going to do in the next four years including create 12 million jobs with absolutely no math that backs that up. Kind of like saying that youre going to stop the rising of the oceans and the earth will begin healing the second you get sworn in. Thats not fantastical, is it . I dont think president obamas saying that about the next four years. I think hes talking about the policies and initiatives that hes put in place and how he plans to grow this economy out from the middle class, and hes doing it in a more realistic way which doesnt give ask ed a question. I am trying. Someones interrupting me. He smacks the chair underneath her. Which look, it doesnt give people this incredible should i stretch over here . Seriously . Ed, do you agree to an extent dont let him bully you like that. I know. Its unbelievable. Let me ask ed a question. Respond to this clint eastwoodlike monologue. Go okay. So if youre talking about continuing the economic policies that weve had, then youre talking about continuing a lowering of civilian population thats working to a 31year low. Youre talking about Household Income dropping recovery faster than it dropped during the recession. Thats over three year plus now recovery, talking about adding job s at a rate slower than you need to keep up with population growth which is the reason why youre seeing the declines in the workforce measures and so thats why people want to change. People want to change from the policies that are delivering that kind of very, very, very thin recovery and thats the reason why i think people are looking at mitt romney as someone with experience in the public and private sectors and has understands business, who understands markets and who at least has an opportunity to put some other policies in play that barack obama simply isnt even expressing at this point in time. Let me interrupt. Im about to explode here on a friday, a good friday and i listen to so much left wing tripe here and i sit here politely and i ask polite questions. You guys act so shocked that 65 of the americans agree with ed and me that they want america to go in a new direction. I dont know whats so shocking about all this. Mitt romney has not laid out a direction that makes any sense. Well, thank god barack obama has, steve. Each of their agenda is basically their Party Doctrine for romney, a lot of tax cuts, more trade in which for obama is more Government Spending but investment and social programs. Raising taxes. It is essentially a party agenda. The real frustration i think on both sides and, of course, we republicans will admit this, democrats dont, theyre shocked that somebody brings it up is the fact that neither one of these guys have laid out a clear agenda over the next four years. Anybody who says they have is an ideologue. Both agendas are more vague than youd like them to be but heres the question. Mitt romney promises to go out and change the direction of the hurricane like you just did, right . Yeah. Make it go a different way and people know, how are you going to do that and the problem is that his math doesnt add up. And i think thats an issue that you need to look at because it seems to me the voters are and they have, you know you can promise im going to create 12 million jobs and make it rain jobs but how are you going to do that. Gene, can i ask a cynical question . Both sides. Maybe the reason neither one lays out a clear agenda because if you put everything down, you cant get elected. At the end of the day, if you do if you really say what has to be said youll either lose the elderly vote or i mean in reality im a guy that sells for a living, theres a reason theyre not doing it. Donny, i think youre right because what has to happen in the next four years will be very painful and talked about it earlier. Weve got to deal with the deficit and entitlements and revenues. Everybody knows that. And, gene, reply to that no, i think theres a lot of truth in that, actually and heres another truth, the policy alternatives open to obama and romney, i mean the real policy alternatives, theres a fairly narrow band to tell you the truth. I mean, it is not simply not the case that mitt romney is going to be able to effect some sort of huge change of direction because, you know, this is an Aircraft Carrier that were on. You cant just switch up overnight and hes not going to. So, ed, let me ask you about how excited conservatives are, of course, if you support romney like im going to vote for mitt romney, im sure youre going to vote for mitt romney, youre hoping its more like 1980 but i remember in 1980 how excited i was for Ronald Reagan and you were too. Im not that excited for mitt romney. Its more of a vote to hopefully change some policies moving forward. Without like do you sense that growing excitement for mitt romney . Do you sense the possibility of that lastminute push or do we still have republicans voting against barack obama more than theyre voting for mitt romney . Thats a good question and i think actually that the conservative excitement for the ticket was considerably heightened by adding paul ryan as the running mate. We were talking about big ideas. Paul ryan is a Vice President ial candidate who actually put into place those plans, who actually crafted a plan and got it passed in the house. Didnt go anywhere in the senate but a person who has done some big idea thinking and tried to put them into play and taken a lot of political risks. So adding him to the ticket really bolstered conservative ed morrissey and eugene, thanks. Wc [ male announcer ] this is joe woods first day of work. And his new boss told him two things cook what you love, and save your money. Joe doesnt know it yet, but hell work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. Hell start investing early, hell find some good people to help guide him, and hell set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isnt rocket science. Its just common sense. From td ameritrade. This weekend joe and i will be on the campaign trail with president obama, our exclusive conversation with the president airs monday on morning joe. Back in just a moment. Tdd 18003452550 this morning, im going to trade in hong kong. Tdd 18003452550 after that, its on to germany. Tdd 18003452550 then tonight, im trading 9500 miles away in japan. Tdd 18003452550 with the new global account from schwab, tdd 18003452550 i hunt down opportunities around the world tdd 18003452550 as if im right there. Tdd 18003452550 and im in total control because i can trade tdd 18003452550 directly online in 12 markets in their local currencies. Tdd 18003452550 i use their Global Research to get an edge. Tdd 18003452550 their equity ratings show me how schwab tdd 18003452550 rates specific foreign stocks tdd 18003452550 based on things like fundamentals, momentum and risk. Tdd 18003452550 and i also have access to independent tdd 18003452550 firms like Ned Davis Research tdd 18003452550 and Economist Intelligence unit. Tdd 18003452550 plus, i can talk to their global specialists 24 7. Tdd 18003452550 and trade in my global account commissionfree tdd 18003452550 through march 2013. Tdd 18003452550 best part. No jet lag. Tdd 18003452550 call 18662945409 tdd 18003452550 and a global specialist tdd 18003452550 will help you get started today. Every room deserves to look us what our great. Te color is . And every footstep should tell us we made the right decision. So when we can feel our way through the newest, softest, and most colorful options. Across every possible price range. Our budgets wont be picking the style. We will. More saving. More doing. Thats the power of the home depot. Right now get 37 basic installation on all special order carpet. Good friday morning, its 8 00 on the east coast, 5 00 a. M. On the west coast. Time to wake up as you take a live look at new york city. Back with us we have donny deutsch, sam stein and steve ratner. Were getting new poll numbers out in colorado and nevada. Two swing states the president won in 2008 but fighting to hang on to now. According to the nbc news wall street journal poll, that is dead even. The president s fivepoint lead if a month ago, gone. In nevada hes holding on to a threepoint advantage and nevada like we said yesterday stubbornly staying in the president s column. A slight uptick for mr. Obama from last month, mika. This was conducted after the third and final debate. If there was any doubt about romneys momentum, look at what happened in virginia, a new poll shows him leading by two points. Last month the same poll had obama up by seven. In the abc the Washington Post daily tracking poll hes taken a threepoint lead. On monday he was leading 4948 and on the economy when voters were asked romney has a sizable ninepoint lead. Abc news, the Washington Post poll showing a fourpoint lead in the National Poll this week. A fourpoint swing in the National Poll and gallup had him up five, six points and in the National Poll if you take all the polls it really does seem like mitt romney is moving away from barack obama and yet you go to these swing states, nevada Holding Steady for barack obama, colorado, still deadlocked, virginia slightly going to romney. We said we expect the south to go that way but yesterday a poll had the president had the president up five points in ohio last week an nbc news marist poll shows him up and we could move to the scenario where mitt romney wins the National Vote and president obama wins the electoral vote. In the waning days, the president ial campaigns have surpassed an incredible benchmark. Total spending topped 2 billion putting it on track to be the costliest according to federal elections data theyre doling out 29 every second on rallies, banners and, of course, advertising and the prolific spend something a real problem even in his own campaign, barack obama said last night. The amount of money being spent in my campaign and mr. Romneys campaign and the super pacs that are out there is ridiculous. You know, there is no reason why i believe we can interpret the constitution in a way that allows us for some common sense, you know, restrictions on the amount of money spent and the manner in which its spent because, you know, for us to have spokes writing 10 million checks undisclosed having huge sway in this election and just the sheer amount of waste that could be used more profitably in other areas doesnt make that much sense, so this is an issue that in a second term ill raise. In the remaining days inside a campaign, where do they spend it . No much bobody has it better get out the vote and president obamas team may oneup what karl rove and ken mellman did in 2004 which was a historic get out the vote operation. If its close, sam, and looks like it will be close thats going to make a big difference. What do you make of the divergence between the National Polls where mitt romney does seem, does he not, to be moving ahead and swing state polls where it remains neck and neck . I didnt realize we would be talking politics but the latest exhibit at the met. But we were talking about the soft side. The national we have a very static race i think where you see mitt romney up two or three Percentage Points and obama has the lead in state polls. People say at some point something will converge or the state polls or vice versa but like steve and i discussed off set, i dont see why that would be the guest. Im not the geek you portray me to be. Im not a pollster. No reason ohio would have to reflect the trend nationally. I do think youre going to have a situation where obama is going to get clob ired in the south. Hes not going to see the same margins of victory he saw in 2008 and hell probably hold on to some of these swing states and end up where he could very well lose the national lose the National Vote. And win the Electoral College. It happened before with george w. Bush and thats how we elect president s and thats what they know. Its splitting, the National Vote pulling abay from the president and, you know, if its 500,000 votes, a million votes, 2 million votes. Its one thing, its 2 , 3 , 4 like some of these polls suggest a lot will scratch their heads the day after. Like sam said, these are the rules. It is what it is. Nobody has any right to whine. You know what the rules of the game are, that said that would have people scratching their head. But there are two major things, the first obvious one if i put in the category for obama, doesnt matter what else is going around, ohio, 4 , 5 , that doesnt seem to be moving and the math just as we all know doesnt add up for romney. Hes got to win ohio. But the thing that i see in romneys favor at this point and im going to go back to carter reagan, i call the what the heck vote. I think early id like to use a word than heck but i wont because its a nice family show. I think early on people are begrudgingly sticking with obama will still go, what the no, not enough there in that. Although he peaked in the polls october 12th. What he did in the first debate gave enough people, i think, even if its not showing up in the polls yet, you know what, what the yeah, theres enough to go over there. Im not going to stick with this guy. I think if theres any surprise in the polls, i think its going to swing in romneys favor. This is getting so frustrating because a poll comes out that shows obama ahead by five points. Immediately everybody screams on the right, oh, its plus nine democrat. Its skewed. The polls are blah, blah, blah. You hear the same thing on the left when mitt romney started moving ahead. Liberals started saying the poll samples cant be believed. You know, its i guess were all trying to figure out early voting and how it plays into this thing, but ohio does seem to be right now still in the president s every election is a little different in terms of turnout and early voting becoming more prevalent. You can never be sure but i think its pretty consistent so let me show you another poll which is not the poll youve been looking at but we financiers look at and if you look at this, youll see that obama has consistently been ahead in ohio and not surprisingly before the first debate when he was on a roll nationally, he also was on a roll in ohio and the odds there were up to 80 and then, of course, romney had his surge and just about got back to even with obama here. But now its pulled away again and, in fact, even since yesterday when we did this and he was at 59 , hes actually moved to 63 on the intrade poll so one more poll to throw into your mix. Are reliable are those. 49 out of 50 states in the last election. Well do an intrait update and you can see whats happening. Its been in the high 60s, 70s, dipped down to the 50s. Right around 60. But a lot of money has been moving romneys way, but when you look at all these different numbers, steve, what is your gut . Obviously mitt romney gaining a lot in the south. But the midwest, thats still the battleground. Its still the battleground but i think im with sam, at least i think i know where sam is, when you look at it state by state and look at ohio and iowa and even New Hampshire, and nevada, its just so consistently ever so much in obamas column. Doesnt seem to be moving. Even like the places where it has come close, colorado and virginia are now everyone when you talk to, those are the tightest races. I know we had the fox poll up but other polls showing the flip in. Those two are basically 50 50 propositions. The obama team thinks of it like this, those are safety valves. They can try to, you know, churn out a victory in colorado and virginia if ohio goes to hell and theyre happy spin, obviously, but at this stage romney has to pour tons of resources by the way, if mitt romney wins ohio he will win virginia and colorado. They are no safety valves, thats why i wrote a post for politico a couple days ago that said obama wins in a tight race or romney wins big. If romney wins, its going to be in ohio. If he wins ohio hes made up a fivepoint disadvantage in ohio which would carry him over the top in the only counterpoint to that and i dont know if its valid, when you do have a sophisticated ground game which everyone agrees the obama team has you can sometimes get a couple Percentage Points and can matter in a state like virginia, for instance. I understand but five points down in ohio i dont think hes five points. According to the latest two polls, if theres a surge that takes him over the top its going to be everywhere. That obamas incredible ground game in ohio cant stop then katie bar the door, florida, north carolina, colorado, they are all going to swing especially because ohio is the center of america and cant say thats just ohio. Thats not going to have an impact on the rest of the country. Can you respond to the psychology. Obviously the polls are if you go state by state, the point i made earlier as far as the psychology when its this close, that do you go new or do you stay old . You know, when its at the point where its just so like this and keep going back to Reagan Carter and what scares me as a democrat, nan im a behaviorist . Heres the deal you are a behaviorist. I will tell you in every election ive ever seen in every poll ive ever read, in every incumbent ive ever talked to if youre under 50 , if youre under 50 , you know, a week and a half out, youre sweating bullets. The burden of proof is against you that youre going to get reelected thats my point. If the president is sitting at 47 in the polls, boy, id be shocked if he won. Hes in 48 in some of these polls. So thats my gut. That said, hes got an incredible ground game and a lot of early voters are coming out and those early voters coming out are voting for barack obama. So you have if youre a behavioralist and youre undecided about barack obama and have known him for taif years and followed him for five years and been on the front newspaper for five years and been on your tv set every night for five years and you still dont know if youre going to vote for barack obama, history would suggest youre not going to swing in the last ten days. That said, you got to go to the other side and the other side is im not hedging. These are just the realities we have to weigh and thats why nobody in the obama and romney camp know how its going to end. On the president s side, an extraordinary turnout operation. That operation got george w. Bush reelected in 2004. Look at that and you just wonder, steve ratner, how its going to i will say this, in 2004, at this point george w. Bush had a 52 approval rating. This president still below 50 so its hard i get the behavioral thing and know what happened in 1980 where in the last few days people said im not going that way but whats different here is the fact that the economy is actually Getting Better and people are perceiving it getter better. Another gallup poll where more americans think theyre better off than think theyre worse off and the numbers are similar to what they were in 2004 and 1984. 1984, exactly. So i think i get that point. I think obamas got the ground game and i think he does have a bit of momentum from the economy. Behavioral psychology, one more jobs report coming out on the friday before the election that could wow. That could mean what steve was talking about that the country is going in the right direction. I agree but lets look at this the Washington Post poll, this abc news the Washington Post poll and who they think will do a better job with the economy, 9 more say mitt romney. So romneys Still Holding that builtin advantage. So you dont know how it breaks, but you are exactly right, that gallup poll was an eye catcher. 38 of americans think things are Getting Better, 34 say worse. Thats a change. That hasnt happened in four, five years and, again, the numbers are about the same as they were in 1984 when reagan won 49 states. If you look at other numbers like consumer confidence, theyve all turned up in the last few weeks and months. And thats on the back of better news in housing, better news on jobs. Coming up next a survival manual for American Voters. Victoria joins us for her new book electoral dysfunction. Also ahead, the daily shows. Aasif mandvi is with us. Bill karins. The hurricane is going to head for the northeast. Possibly the northern midatlantic region and it looks like the storm is going to make its worst impacts sunday night, monday during the day and slowly ending tuesday. Right now off the coast of florida. Squally type weather with winds 40 to 50 miles an hour and doesnt look impressive, getting sheared apart in the process of becoming a hybrid and has some tropical characteristics, heavy rain and warm air but dry air on the back side of it more typical of what we see on the back side of a noreaster. Coming into virginia, delmarva, chesapeake, possibly southern portions of new jersey and cone goes up into southern new england so still widespread and wont move inland until Late Wednesday so we have a lot of time to pinpoint that. Theyre still pinpointing areas. Dont be on the coast to the north side of the system where the worst storm surge will be on the coast. For inland areas you need to prepare for the possibility of losing power for up to four or five days and maybe even losing fresh water. So a lot buying generators and water in those areas affected. Heres a sign of the things to come up and down the eastern seaboard. Florida dealing with the large waves all the way up to the dunes. Youre watching morning joe brewed by starbucks. [ male announcer ] humana and walmart have teamed up to bring you a lowpriced Medicare Prescription Drug plan. With a low National Plan premium. And copays as low as one dollar. Saving on your medicare prescriptions is easy. So youre free to focus on the things that really matter. Call humana at 18008084003. Or go to walmart. Com for details. To start her own interior design business. Shes got a growing list of clients she keeps in touch with using email marketing from constantcontact. Com. Constantcontact is easy and affordable. It lets her send out updates and photos that showcase her expertise and inspire her customers for only 15 a month. [ dog barking ] her dream to be the areas hottest interior design office. [ children laughing ] right now, she just dreams of an office. Get a free trial at constantcontact. Com. Playing a lone hand my life begins today fly by night away from here change my life again fly by night, goodbye my dear my ship isnt coming and i just cant pretend oww [ male announcer ] careful, youre no longer invisible in a midsize sedan. The volkswagen passat. Winner of a motor trend midsize sedan comparison. Thats the power of german engineering. Free streaming quotes, all your investments, positions, and even your trade ticket are all on one customizable page. See the 360 investing dashboard at etrade. This is my big break. Okay, thank you. Let me see if i can do this. Joining us now author of the book electoral dysfunction, victoria bassetti. Victorias book was turned into a documentary airing on pbs next week. Donny, you did great. Victoria, thank you for joining us. Nothing to do with a fourhour problem. This did a bigger problem. Basically 51 million American Voters are not registered, one in four adults that dont count for the ones who do vote. We have the lowest rate in any industrialized nation in the world and in the last election maybe 62 of the voting eligible population voting age eligible population voted. Who knows if were going to reach that mark this time around but basically weve got a dysfunctional election system with 13,000 election systems around the united states. Scattered rules rules an incredibly difficult system that turns off a lot of voters pretty regularly. What happened after 2000 . Well have a nationalized system and work together. Nothing happened. Why . We threw almost 3 billion at upgrading the machines and tried to impose new rules and regulation and inertia took over and we have still bad machines, scattered throughout the united states. Weve still got sometimes incoherent rules and poor Voter Registration systems. Its a little bit of a mess. What youre saying in 2012 pat buchanan is still going to carry palm beach county. It turns out it might happen. Fantastic. I always thought pat should carry it. How does early voting change the game . Obviously a larger window to get people to vote. Doesnt change necessarily the registration, but people can now, if they have to work and a tuesday can vote on their own time. Does that change things. Thats one big change in early voting or no fault or no excuse absentee voting since 2000. The estimates are as much as 30 of the votes this time are going to be cast through earlier absentee voting. Definitely when you make voting easier, more people vote. But thats not the only problem that we have. Australia has campus si voting. We wont have that in the united states. Whats the whats compulsory voting. You get fined if you dont vote in australia and have a 90 plus participation. That will do it. What could we do it for a reform . Making election day a federal holiday. Sure, that would be one thing or early voting expanding it to beyond the states where it is. Making absentee voting a little easier. If there were three things that i could do, the first thing i would do reform our Voter Registration system which is convoluted and outdated so i would make it a lot easier for those to register like canada, the government affirmatively builds lists of eligible voters. I would have election day registration which is something that california recently initiated. Itll be in effect around around 2015 in california. Theyre coupling with a sophisticated Voter Registration system and most importantly, i would try to take some of the partisanship out of the administration of elections. Weve got two really . Yeah. Seems like an oxymoron. We have seconds of state who are republicans or democrats voting running the very election system that theyre elected under. It seems to me we might be able to introduce bipartisanship or none partisanship into the Simple Administration of elections. That would take a lot of the problems out of it right now and it would definitely decrease the accusations that Election Administrators are consciously manipulating the system for partisan advantage. Claims you heard exploding over the course of the last election particularly in ohio. Donny . What do we do in the way of education . I mean at the end of the day so many voters, theres just dont know how. Its that simple. It sounds like a crazy thing but yeah, several organizations have got great efforts every year to kind of increase Civics Education in voter awareness and voter education. I think every citizen should take a look at whether or not their state allows preregistration of people about to turn 18 and encourages that preregistration in the schools. And then theres you know, every september theres Constitution Day where a lot of organizations attempt to educate kids so, you know, but youre right one other quick thing, how much does the Electoral College im a new yorker to me thats the big elephant in the room at the end of the day. There are definitely studies that indicate in states where the Electoral College impacts the amount of campaigning that goes on in the state so the solid states, california, new york, texas that voter turnout declines anywhere from 2 to 4 because were not a competitive state in the president ial election. So it definitely theres a cluster of factors in things that depress voter turnout every year not just the Electoral College but thats one of them. Thank you so much, the book is electoral dysfunction, a survival manual for American Voters and the documentary will be airing on pbs next tuesday, october 30th and will be available to download on itunes. Platforms. There you go. Whatever. I just wish you hadnt have said that. Back with the daily show and aasif mandvi in a moment. Humans even when we cross our ts and dot our is, we still run into problems. Namely, other humans. Which is why, at Liberty Mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify. See what else comes standard at libertymutual. Com. Liberty mutual insurance. Responsibility. Whats your policy . Tdd 18003452550 after that, its on to germany. Tdd 18003452550 then tonight, im trading 9500 miles away in japan. Tdd 18003452550 with the new global account from schwab, tdd 18003452550 i hunt down opportunities around the world tdd 18003452550 as if im right there. Tdd 18003452550 and im in total control because i can trade tdd 18003452550 directly online in 12 markets in their local currencies. Tdd 18003452550 i use their Global Research to get an edge. Tdd 18003452550 their equity ratings show me how schwab tdd 18003452550 rates specific foreign stocks tdd 18003452550 based on things like fundamentals, momentum and risk. Tdd 18003452550 and i also have access to independent tdd 18003452550 firms like Ned Davis Research tdd 18003452550 and Economist Intelligence unit. Tdd 18003452550 plus, i can talk to their global specialists 24 7. Tdd 18003452550 and trade in my global account commissionfree tdd 18003452550 through march 2013. Tdd 18003452550 best part. No jet lag. Tdd 18003452550 call 18662945409 tdd 18003452550 and a global specialist tdd 18003452550 will help you get started today. That was a scene from the Lincoln Center play disgraced. Aasif mandvi, a member of the the daily show news team. Good to see you again. Every time we have you on youre in a dramatic play and so i dont know whether to call you a comedian or the next great dramatic actor of our time. You like this . The next great dramatic actor of our time. Laurence olivier. How do you balance those two things . Youre funny when youre on the daily show and here you get heavy. I started as an actor so i grew up in the theater and went to acting school and all that stuff so for me its not that much i ended up on the daily show from an audition as an actor, you know, and now because of the popularity of the daily show and people think of me as more of a comedian which ive done a lot of comedy in my life and continue to love doing comedy, but i also love doing dramatic stuff. So really hes saying that jon stewart has perverted him from his true calling. Yes, hes perverted me in a lot of ways. By the way well talk about that in just a minute but first lets talk about disgraced and the setup. Youre a successful pakistani lawyer on your way up but theres a scene in the dinner party where it all goes south. And suddenly youre going, what . Im from india. Well, its a wonderful play and it really is the meat of it is a dinner party where you have these very smart erudite sophisticated Upper East Side new yorkers discussing race politics, identity politics, islam, sexual politics and then the whole Dinner Party Just goes south and you realize that people it really comments on peoples tribal identities and how we as much as we want to say, well, you know, its united colors of beneneton and it evolves to their base level we saw that when you had a muslim group that wanted to put up a community center. Exactly. In downtown new york. And you had these people who were building something based on their religion and their faith and stuff then you had other people who felt strongly that this was somehow encroaching upon some identity they had as new yorkers and as americans and so you have these two things conflicting. Thats what the play deals with. Is this a commentary more would you say on your character kapoor or the yuppie new york crowd . I think its both. Whats amazing, everything is right and everybody is wrong and it makes a commentary on how we dont listen to each other, how we often because of our prejudices, our innate prejudgments, we dont often listen to what other people have to say and weve already decided and shut down the conversation and just go right to our, you know, our basic levels. Fascinating, after 9 11, you had people some of the most progressive people and one of the most regressive cities in america suddenly becoming very tribal. Yeah. And i would not say hysterical because after 9 11 nothing is his tier cal its hard to say anything is hysterical but certainly becoming far less openminded about people of the muslim faith. And engaging in, you know, the kind of people who would denounce racial profiling. Right. Whether explicit or unconscious, theyve now are engaging in it all the times, sometimes in their heads and sometimes actively. Im worried about getting on a plane with that guy in the turbin hes trying to be more american. Its also about the fragmenting of identity in terms of when you especially as an immigrant and today as a muslim, americans, a lot of muslimamericans change their name. The character changes his name to sound more hindu than muslim because he wants to dison or about from islamic characters and thats his underpinning. Thats what undermines imultimately in the play is his inability to reconcile with his own heritage. I idea that hes rejected islam in favor of magazine yell ya bakery. Hes a new yorker. That sounds like a reasonable trade to me but not as a comment on islam but magnolia i was raised muslim and we love magnolia. Muslims love magnolia bakery. Im saying that on television. He would give up his faith for a cupcake. Wouldnt we all . Come on. He has defended the islam faith. I think youve covered all your bases and i doubt there will be riotsout side the daily show tonight. Damn it. Always fun when we have riots outside. You can see disgraced and ought to december 2nd at the clarp etow theater. More morning joe when we come back. If your tv were a hot dog zeebox would be some sort of fancy, french mustard. When they magically unite, people would think, woah, this two dollar hot dog tastes like a fancy eight dollar hot dog. Download zeebox free, and say woah every time you watch tv. Tastes like a fancy eight dollar hot dog. Between taking insulin and testing my blood sugar. Is this part of your life . Freestyle lite test strips . Why, are they any. Beep wow, that hardly needs any blood yeah. And the unique zipwik tab targets the blood and pulls it in. So easy. Freestyle lite needs just a third the blood of onetouch ultra. Really . Yep, which is great for people who use insulin and test a lot. Max and i are gonna run out and get them right now. Or you can call or click today and get strips and a meter free. Test easy. With the fidelity stock screener, you can try strategies from independent experts and see what criteria they use. Such as a 5 yield on dividendpaying stocks. Then you can customize the strategies and narrow down to exactly those stocks you want to follow. Im mark allen of fidelity investments. The expert strategies feature is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Now get 200 free trades when you open an account. Do do here now is a clip from the soon to be released Steven Spielberg Abraham Lincoln movie. Take a look at this bad boy. Pretty good seats, huh . I got these tickets just like a half hour ago, half price. Oh, man, theres my friend cyrus. Cyrus, hey, cyrus, oh no. Oh, im so sorry, mr. President. Oh, this must be like the worst thing thats ever happened to you in a theater balcony. My goodness, i didnt know that was going to be part of it. All right, this is for the bell and according to a new study the threat of the fiscal cliff is already wiped out 1 million jobs across america with companies now postponing major purposes purchases and also letting positions go unfulfilled. The report from the National Association of manufacturers predicts if the tax increase and sequestration went into effect, americans could lose 6 million more jobs through 2014. Sending unemployment racing toward 12 . And this story out of seattle, boeing is encouraging its suppliers to outsource work to mexico. And its even Encouraging Companies who attend a workshop in chicago to learn more about how to outsource. According to the Seattle Times boeing said that mexico offers Aerospace Companies a number of advantages and the company even offered to waive the fee for suppliers if they were interested in the education sessions on how to outsource american jobs to mexico. Apple profits, they jumped 24 during the last fiscal quarter mostly due to the release of the iphone 5. However since it hit the market the companys stock has fallen 10 over concerns it cant keep up with customer demand. They announced their profits may not be as robust as it once was because theyre becoming more expensive to make and this monday, facebook stockholders, hold on tight, facebook staffers will be given the opportunity to unload more than 270 million shares of the stock. Now, these shares are part of more than a billion of restricted shares that are going to be unlocked by facebook next week and once available they can be traded on the public market, facebook stock, as you know, is now trading around 23 after debuting at 38 this past may. The question is, you know, once these employees have a chance to dump the stock, does it go down lower . Can i Say Something embarrassing . I own facebook stock. Please tell me you didnt buy it at 38 . Oh, my lord. Not too much. You should have listened. I got suckered in. You got suckered in, man, come on. I predicted it would settle at 26. Well, they were off by 3. Its even lower. Its even lower. I think it goes lower next week. It seems like thats the only way it goes when they start selling. Maybe well get the answer when willies week in review will come up next t may change your weekend. Just may change your life. We shall return. Leaving my homeland playing a lone hand my life begins today fly by night away from here change my life again fly by night, goodbye my dear my ship isnt coming and i just cant pretend oww [ male announcer ] careful, youre no longer invisible in a midsize sedan. The volkswagen passat. Winner of a motor trend midsize sedan comparison. Thats the power of german engineering. What if i forget to vote . If you forget . Well, i have a plan for that, jimmy. You do . I have a good plan. Should we take a look. Election day, election day, up and at them. You can do it. Okay. And eat some carrots. Im barack obama and i approve this message. How many folks are under the impression there were three president ial debates . Did it seem like there were three . No, turns out there was a fourth president ial debate. Did you see the fourth one . I completely missed it. Here it is. We have videotape of the fourth, fourth president ial debate. Look at this. The record for us is working through our partners and with our own resources to identify responsible parties bob sheriff dressed as a kitty. I missed that one too. Sam, did you miss that . I would have most of you know by now a group of economists won a nobel prize for their scholar study on how watching Willie Geists week in review helps consumer confidence. Now, sit back and watch willies week in review. Aveni have a deal for the president that i dont believe he can refuse. Trumping the shark. A check immediately for 5 million. Donald j. Trump addressed the nation this week from high atop new yorks number one building. Once again demanding something or other from president obama. The check will be given within one hour after he releases all of the records. The president had a theory about trumps obsession with his personal documents. This all dates back to when we were growing up together in kenya and we wish we could have the old donald back, the one who pursued, evaluated and rendered a verdict upon topless photos of miss california. The pictures taken were acceptable. They were fine in many cases they were actually lovely pictures. At number two, the last samurai. A kansas city man this week entered a chicken joint carrying his own utensils. His order, though, was not for a threepiece dinner box with a couple of sides but for all the money in the register. With no one harmed in this throwback 12th century japanstyle robbery, one had to wonder how much sweeter this could have been if only the young samurai had come dressed as gumby. And the number one story of the week. Governor, we have fewer horses and bayonets. Illuminating debate in boca over 19th sent warfare and 20th century board games. The question is not a game of battleship. When mitt romney wasnt agreeing with the president profusely i want to underscore that the same point the president made, i felt the same as the president. I supported his action there. I think romney is leaning obama. He was accusing the commander in chief of weakness. The president began what i called an aposition tour. Nothing governor romney just said is true. Out on the campaign trail he delighted in his own diagnosis with a rare political condition. Its called romnesia. This is a curable condition. And obama care covers preexisting conditions. The president appeared remarkably composed at least outwardly given the fact the clock was ticking ominously towards zero hour. The records must be given by october 31st at 5 00 in the afternoon. Okay, well, listen well look for those records this weekend. Mik and i will be on the campaign trail with president obama and speaking with the president , one of his Campaign Events in New Hampshire and well talk also to the senior white house adviser valerie well see if romney will be there. It will air this monday morning on morning joe. Coming up next, what, if anything, did we learn today. [ male announcer ] humana and walmart have teamed up to bring you a lowpriced Medicare Prescription Drug plan. With a low National Plan premium. And copays as low as one dollar. Saving on your medicare prescriptions is easy. So youre free to focus on the things that really matter. Call humana at 18008084003. Or go to walmart. Com for details. Speaking of that, its a great new band. What we learned today, what did you learn . I learned that the Obama Campaign is in sup a bad state, so clinging to a lead that theyre even willing to do an interview with morning joe. Thats desperate. If you want to reach the kids, what can you do, right . You can eithero on american bandstand or on morning joe