the country, starting sunday at a big meet-up with rolling thunder. sarah palin seems to be doing what it takes to make a run the the white house. tea partiers and people in the media, for obvious reasons are saying run, sarah, run. also, look at what's happened to the gop since the huge win last november. new republican governors are crashing in the poll. obama got bin laden and his poll numbers are up. one top republican after another has decided it is not worth taking him on next year. how did they get from there to here so fast? here is an answer. doubling down on the plan to kill medicare, joining house republicans in their political suicide pact. eventually republicans will realize they can neither defend the ryan plan nor deny they voted for it. well they offered a deal. that's interesting. and who knew the tea party has its own abm treat? anyone but mitt. no tea for you, mitt. let me fin with why sarah palin is running. here is a hint. it's not running to be president. steve mcmahon and republican todd harris. let me go to a couple of questions. i worked hard on these, todd, because i nigh you would face a tough strategist. let's leave aside whether she is running yet but i will get to there. if she were to run, would she finish in the money? mean 1, 2 or 3? would she be a serious candidate to end? and look smart that she got in, even if she didn't win? >> she would be a serious candidate because she would be one of the few candidates that brings a base of support. >> she has people. >> she has people. the biggest in terms of who she threatens, she threatens people who are do or die in iowa, and do or die with social conservatives. if you are building your winning formula around either of those two things, she's going to cause a problem for you because whether she runs or not, as long as there is speculation about her running, she will freeze a big chunk of the base. >> so you say, to get back to my question, not to be too tough on you todd harris, but do you think she will finish in the money? will she be in the top three at the end of the fight? >> at the enof the fight, the one that the matters is the one that ultimately wins. >> she will be in the money when she runs? >> yes. >> okay, the republican party, if she is not some sideshow, if she runs, she is up there in the race? >> yes and yes. she is a sideshow. to most republicans, you look at her numbers, and she is still a sideshow. but if she runs, she will be a player right to the end. two people are saying thank my lucky stars. mitt romney for one. because she takes all of the oxygen out on the right. he will beat her. >> this poll shows 22% f republicans with no opinion. on the 2012 feed so far, nobody. romney at 17, palin right behind him in 15. >> that's right. she sits there and she's the person who is going to be the most serious candidate but for mitt romney and everybody on the right needs the social conservatives and tea party to become the alternate for mitt romney, and she will occupy that space and make it difficult for anybody to get past. >> i do take her seriously. i think she appeals to people, rural people. but also people from the big states like pennsylvania, southwestern pennsylvania. all across the t, as we know it, central part of the state. franklin county. she could do well in just about all of the counties. but here is the question. if she wins she has to be the favorite in iowa. if she wins in iowa she goes to new hampshire. she comes in a strong second or third. she goes down to south carolina, she wins there. where does she lose? >> i think she could have trouble in florida. i think she would have trouble in south carolina. i'm not saying she couldn't win it but there are others who -- >> against four guys or stiffs. >> there are guys who can take the real fight to her. >> i'm serious. doesn't she win, because she's the only woman in the race, the only one with pizzazz. she looks fabulous on the stump. she's a great show, and the others are not a great show. >> i don't know if she would win, but she is a contender. >> republicans want to win. they feel like for -- i don't think they are right -- >> there is no meeting of the republican. where are they meeting to stop her? >> i think she'll have to appear in debates, and when she appears in debates against people like mitt romney, huntsman an pawlenty and gingrich, she will be pair to be she will appear to be less than a serious candidate. >> you think? she's hiring you this week? she has randy, picking up a couple other people. she brought back a couple other people. what are they preparing her for if not the race for president. for fox? >> i'm not sure randy is still with her, actually. >> he was listed in the times on the list of people. >> i'm not sure that he is. but i think what she is preparing for is everything that you do to stoke the fires of speculation. she is hiring people who will be able to do all of the advance work on a bus tour. who will do -- who all of the logistics. what she is not doing is hiring media consultants. pollsters, the kind of senior strategists who would actually run a campaign. i think ultimately she's not running. >> okay, let's listen to this view of whether she is running. >> i think my problem is that i do have the fire in my belly. i am so adamantly supportive of the good traditional things about america and our free enterprise system. and i want to make sure that america is put back on the right track and we only do that by defeating obama in 2012. i have that fire in my belly. >> here's my question. first, will she finish in the money? you both think she'll be a serious candidate. second is will she change the whole nature of it? how can you have palin in the race? you say she won't be able to keep up on the facts and information of the debating points. but she stakes out positions. she says we are against cap and trade. we are against taxes. she lists her litmus tests. don't the other guys like romney buckle to her? because even if they beat her, they are in trouble with her wing? >> she would play a significant, have a significant influence, in terms of the issue dynamics of the race. ironically she could end up playing the role that everyone had assumed that newt gingrich would play by really forcing debate on certain key issues. >> points of issue, can she say you have to be against taxes? >> yes, yes. >> you have to be for the ryan plan. and every time romney hears her say it, he says well if i disagree with her, even if i beat her, i'm stuck because her people say i was wrong. >> except her people in the general election wouldn't have much choice but to vote for romney or obama. >> yeah, they have a choice. >> she will have to make a decision. in most states between running as primary or candidate. she will pull the entire field to the right and weaken the eventual nominee. in order to get the nomination the nominee will have to tack right and then weaker in the general election. >> i think it is a bad mistake. everybody thinks she can do everything. every athlete thinks they can run a restaurant for example, and they are usually disasters. >> she is really good. i have watched her with wonder. ever since he won the nomination. she went out in minnesota, put on the best show. next to obama at least, certainly the best speech. she did pretty well against biden. she certainly didn't get hurt by it. she probably won on points as far as how people react. she does fantastic on the stage. when she walks out on that stage, there's something that kinetic happens. she looks great. look at her. she is alive, smiling, moving around. you can't take your eyes off what she is doing. when she gets up into the booth in wasilla, alaska with roger ailes or somebody directing her, she's in that little boost, answering little questions that some anchor person is asking her. she doesn't do well. she needs to get out in the air. and that's why she is on rolling thunder this week. why she is meeting with bikers sunday. she's going to put on an extravagancza this sunday. just be nonpolitical for a second. isn't she better on the stage than the booth? >> absolutely. she is someone who can go out there and electrify a crowd, but one of the things you have to do in a presidential campaign is focused, informed and answer questions from everybody. >> eventually. >> i think she demonstrated with katie couric and others that she has a hard time with that. she is great reading a teleprompter, giving a speech and firing up a crowd. >> do you think it is true she doesn't know anything. >> i don't know if she does or not. but one thing she does know is she is a master when it comes to marketing her brand and her image. she understands that the best press you ever get on a campaign is the day you get in and the day you get out. everything in the middle is miserable. and by stoking the flames like this, she is able to continue the speculation, continue the fawning press without actually having to -- >> you think it is a book tour? is all it is? >> i think ultimately she doesn't run. >> okay, let's take a look. here's her pac posting photos of the bus posted on the website. she has this bus, let's take a look at it. i don't know what to make of that thing. i guess it's a bus. not very exciting. she is going out on the road. i think the big story is sunday. she meets with rolling thunder. biker guys mad about the vietnam war. a lot of guys with ponytails, you know the vests they wear and think ride big hogs, big bikes. she is identifying with that part of america. tell me the statement she is making. >> she is saying, i'm the anti-elite. i am the anti of washington. i'm someone very comfortable hanging around with a bunch of bikers wearing -- on harleys, wearing leather jackets. what will be interesting is that there is always fringe elements of rolling thunder who are actually very critical of john mccain. i guarantee you if she spends time with them -- >> because they are going for the guys -- >> he still believe there are people there. >> the mia people. >> yes. >> i think it will be smart. i think she'll be all over the news next week. >> great pictures. terms of the country people, if you will. a lot of people feel country if they live in the city. right? i think i'm on to something. of course i want her to run in the worst way. >> so do i. >> i want her to run because i think the republican side, i'm not going to call them the three stooges, they're men of great intelligence, probably. pawlenty, i don't get it, except romney, i get it. he's less boring than pawlenty. huntsman doesn't like romney, but the only options your republican party has, any year you have a shot at being a president -- >> pawlenty has a great blue collar message. >> you on his team yet? >> i'm not on his team. but his message i think could -- >> excites you? >> it actually does. >> johns huntsman is the guy to watch. >> thank you. keep hearing it but i can't see it. the fact they guys have to sell you is unbelievable. coming up, what has gone ron with the republicans since their big win. it's strange, these governors are getting killed. president obama got bin laden that helping him, but a whole new ball game seems to be working against the republicanss. we're america's natural gas. and here's what we did today in homes all across america: we created the electricity that powered the alarm clocks and brewed the coffee. we heated the bathwater and gave kelly a cleaner ride to school. cooked the cube steaks and steamed the veggies. entertained dad, and mom, and a neighbor or two. kept watch on the house when they slept. and tomorrow we could do even more. we're cleaner, domestic, abundant and ready now. we're america's natural gas. the smarter power today. learn more at anga.us. can become romantic just like that. a spark might come from -- a touch, a glance -- it can come along anywhere, anytime. and when it does, men with erectile dysfunction well, sharron angle dropped out of the nevada congressional race. cialis for daily use is a clinically proven low-dose tablet you take every day, so you can be ready anytime the moment's right even if it's not every day. tell your doctor about your medical condition and all medications and ask if you're healthy enough for sexual activity. don't take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. 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[ male announcer ] ask your doctor if cialis for daily use is right for you. for a 30-tablet free trial offer, go to cialis.com. welcome back to "hardball." the republican party is riding high, well it was in the fall of 2010, after the midterm elections, picking up big governor seats in swing states like ohio, florida, wisconsin. but since then those governors have taken a dive, facing upsidedown approval ratings, while obama is doing better in florida. he is facing 51% approval in florida, the sunshine state, by the way a state he has to win. what happened to the victory march that seemed to be so strong last november? howard fineman and chris sill lizza is here. howard, let's take a look at this. in florida, the quinnipiac poll, the 51 to 43, now back in april of this year, he was 44 to 52 disapproval. what is going on in that state? >> well, i think what is going on there, chris, and what is going on in a lot of other places, is that republican governors elected as reformers are running up against the fact that their states have one out of money. the stimulus money disappeared. state budgets are hemorrhaging. republican governors are having to make tough to unpopular choices whether it's cutting education or money for schools or for healthcare or for roads and bridges for all of the things that the state government does. people wanted reform but they wanted somebody else's welfare program to be cut. >> yeah, medicare. >> and medicare. >> a choo choo train from tampa to orlando. does that hurt them or help them down there, do you think? it went to all of the other states now. >> well, i think it probably hurt him. i think that is a place where sticking up for his convictions but it probably hurt him politically. that's the problem for republicans. they got elected and then had to make good on the rhetoric. >> i never liked the cut of this guy's jib. rick scott, by the way, i want to ask you, chris, he is down to 29% down there. he is not a popular guy. i never thought he would be. but 57 disapproval so quickly they don't like him. chris? >> well, you know, first, to howard's broad point. i mean, i think, chris, some of this is a function of why governing is hard. barack obama learned this two years of a being elected in 2008. down in florida, rick scott, are struggling with the fact you make promises on the campaign trail. you come in and you either have to make good on them or figure out how to do more with less because the state budgets are squeezed. with rick scott in particular, this is a guy who has not helped himself, chris. he has almost no relationship with the press. he's not had a good relationship with the republican controlled legislature. >> i noticed that. >> there are things he could have done that i think might have helped him a little bit, maybe made a concession here or there. you mentioned taking the stimulus money for the railway. i think that would have helped him a little bit in the economic times. i think he is actually a combination of having to govern and making some poor kind of personnel, but also political decisions. >> i think he is a -- but isn't he a bit of a knuckle head? turning down federal money for railroads? they want to modernize that state. you would have to be a knuckle head to turn down federal money, wouldn't you? and have it go to the other states? why would you do that? >> he was elected as a reformer, chris. but if he is running to do one term to do everything he can in one term and doesn't care about getting reelected, fine, but he hasn't done anything in the political 101 of how to govern/campaign, you would follow those rules. maybe that's just what he is doing. >> i guarantee you, and i know in states like mississippi, alabama, hid by tornadoes, now in missouri hit by tornadoes, all of the republicans in those states want 100% federal money to clean up. like in joplin, missouri. they put out a statement, i want 100% federal money for cleanup. no offsets, no nothing. >> these guys are self-reliant pes until something goes wrong. >> a friend of mine, i haven't seen in so long but john kasich has a personality. he is a working class guy that made it. 38%, it just seems a couple things -- let me run this by you, howard, buddy. it seems like the idea of cutting government spending is a good idea. the implication we were taught is oh, that's welfare money, it is foreign aid. it's fluff. it's waste and abuse, but then you look at the pie. you realize, well, it's defense, paying off the national debt, which i legally have to do, medicare, social security, stuff that affects you and your parents, and you go, wait a minute, i don't want to do this. >> and at the state level, since we are talking about what is happening at the states, they don't have the defense portion of it. they don't have the interest on the national debt portion of it. all this pie is stuff that people know about and can see. >> it's them. >> schools, medical care, roads, tangible things that they know about, but it doesn't seem to be cutting the bureaucracy in the state capitols. people are seeing benefits are cut, schools are cut, programs are cut. but somehow harrisburg or columbus or wherever, they still seem to have people working there. >> even when it is to fighting public employees, we have championed their cause on this network. they are popular. someone says get rid of bureaucrats, even get rid of bureaucrats in city hall. the bums -- what do they call them, the drones in city hall we used to call them growing up in philly, drones down there hanging around drinking coffee all day or booze or whatever. now that it comes to them, public roots for those guys and women. who do they want to cut? what do they want to get rid of in government? that's my question to the tea party. what do they want to get rid of? >> the devil is in the details. i have to echo howard. the cutting waste and abuse sounds like a good idea. but when you get in -- >> welfare queens. >> you can campaign on this, and you get in there, and all of a sudden these programs have more value. the other thing to say about ohio, this is a swing state. john kasich won narrowly, 50, 51% of the vote. there are independents going back and forth. i think a lot of people, whoever is in power, look at the special election in new york. republicans are in power. now they don't like the republican. in 2010, democrats are -- >> for the two chrises, the other thing happening here is that national economy is not recovering that vigorously. you read about the comeback in industrial heartland, yeah, but compared with what? so states like ohio and pennsylvania and florida and all these states, the economy just isn't good. that makes whoever is in power, including the governors. >> let me get back it a a guy not in power but he seems to be more popular everyday. i was chatting with him after a service where we lot a great friend, sydney harmon. you know, bill clinton is unbelievable. i mean, i think the guy seems young. he seems happy. he seems together. when you chat with him, like i lucky to do the other day, he is full of ideas and thoughts of everything. >> he is the guy who can explain to the democrats, how they can be credible on the budget cutting issue while still protecting medicare and other social programs. >> has he got a plan to do it? >> well, he -- >> he did it. >> he spent his entire career doing it. >> can he deal with the debt -- can he deal with the problem of government spending, the real waste and still keep the democratic constituency content? chris? last word. can bill clinton find that route to the indies, if you will. >> the economy was better but he found that route to the independent voters in his two elections, and did quite well in that industrial midwest, where i think we will talk about throughout, through 2012. i think he is a good messenger there. i think he can go there and be credible. the thing that bill clinton has, great gift that got him to where he is, he can make complex things simple to people in a way that they can digest and they can say, that makes sense. this sacrifice makes sense. >> i think obama needs him next year. >> it is critically important in politics. you don't have 20 minutes to make your case. you have 30 seconds. bill clinton knows that and does it as well, if not better, than anyone in the democratic party. >> i want to congratulate you, my friend, chris, because i was saying a like a route to the indies, in columbus and you immediately thought turned it into something smart and intelligent. >> i do my best. >> thank you, howard, and if i don't see you -- have a fine memorial day weekend. we should all remember what this weekend is about. it is about remembering those who serve our country. howard, my friend, have nice sunny weekend. >> thank you. more evidence the republican party is in the anti-science mode. are they back into theat idea from dana roar bulk. this is dunnerhead stuff. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] doctors have been saying it forever. let's take a look. but they've never actually been able to do it like this. let's take a look. v-scan from ge healthcare. a pocket sized imaging device that will help change the way doctors see patients. that's better health for more people. at allstate, safe drivers can save forty-five percent or more on car insurance. protect your home with allstate, too, and you can save an extra ten percent. dollar for dollar, nobody protects you like allstate. web browsing on the new blackberry playbook? and you can save an extra ten percent. ♪lash! ah ahh... that's right, it runs flash. so unlike some tablets we could mention, you get the best of the internet, not just part of it. ♪ flash! ah ahh... ♪ >> back to "hardball." now to the sideshow. first up, we know that rain forests are our best allies in reducing greenhouse gases. so here is dana rohrabacher talking about how to get rid of the rain forest. quote, is there some thought being given to subsidizing the clearing, in order for some countries to eliminate that production of greenhouse gases? yes, it's just as ridiculous as it sounds. politico checked with a climate expert who confirmed that trees, far from being the problem, actually end up absorbing large amounts of carb been dioxide. you may want to let congressman rohrabacher know that. trees are our freends. next up, the republican passed budget plan it phase out medicare, the one designed by paul ryan, that budget is blamed for the republican upset in new york 26. yesterday five republican senators joined in voting it down. to top it off, congressman ryan has just been given the big embrace by dib cheney. >> i worship the ground that paul ryan walks on. i think he is an enormously talented individual, he is trying to do the right thing and deserves all of the support we can provide him. and i hope he doesn't run for president because that would ruin a good man. he's got a lot of work to do as chairman of the house budget committee. >> perhaps cheney would have had more credibility if he wasn't part of an administration that nearly doubled the national debt. now for tonight's big number. sarah palin edged closer to made a bid for the nomination next year. consider this, she needs to do it. last summer palin's chance of winning nomition at 29% the intrade.com money bet. where is it now? down to 8%. all of this means one thing. if she is going to run she needs to get out there an ramp things up again. which she is doing this weekend rolling thunder. her chance now stands at a low 8%. tonight's not big number. up next, republicans are doubling down on their plan to kill medicare. all but five senate republicans voted for it. when will they wake up and realize they're committing political suicide? you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. 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i don't care how right wing they are. >> no. hall meetings lately have been very concerned about the potential for medicare to be ended. that's what the republicans have proposed. i think it is interesting that tim pawlenty wasn't interested the other day when he was in florida on a swing in my state, to say what the answer to that question was and when he left florida, now is furtherly willing to answer it. why wouldn't he stand up in front of florida voters and say he would sign it into law as president. he knows it is unbelievably unpopular that americans support medicare, and floridians in the swing state that are strongly supportive of medicare and wouldn't want to be supportive of whether republicans or democrats, that would end it. >> he was overheard. i don't think he was embarrassed of it at all, but was overheard conversing, with ryan, this is bill clinton talking with the congressman we're talking about the republican who pushed this plan. let's listen to the former president talking to the man in question, bill ryan. paul ryan. >> i'm glad we won this race in new york, but i hope they don't use it as a reason to do nothing. >> my guess is it will sink to paralysis. you know the math. you've got to get out there. >> if you want to talk about it, i'd be happy to. >> there's bill clinton in a nonpartisan mode. now look at him today. here he is, talking about the same thing. let's listen to the former president. >> i'm afraid the democrats will draw the conclusion that because congressman ryan's proposal i think is not the best one, that we shouldn't do anything. and i completely disagree with that. i think there are lots of things you can do to bring down medicare costs. >> that opens the question, if the republicans do recognize that they made a mistake in a negotiating posture before the next election, i think mcconnell is by the way the leader of republicans in this senate. he does not want this next year to be about their plan on medicare. will you as leading democrat be open to negotiation for the right kind of fix to entitlement programs? absolutely. >> absolutely. that's what obama suggested when he gave a speech on his vision for the 2012 budget and dealing with the debt ceiling vote and making sure we can focus on deficit reduction, that we have to have some bipartisan consensus on how to deal with entitlement reform. i hope that the message that the republicans got from tuesday's election, and from the election in jacksonville, florida where we elected a democrat in a solidly red district the democrat won 58-42. all of those elections have turned on the radical proposals that voters are pushing back on against republicans and i hope that republicans take that message and sit down at the table with us and work out the long-term solvency of medicare together. >> your knowledge base has become so wide now. you know about every race in the country. i keep thinking of you as congresswoman. now you're chairman of the party. >> that's what i signed up for. >> thank you very much and have a nice weekend as we celebrate. in fact we honor the people that have served this country with unbelievable courage and patriotism. let's go to congressman jack kingston from georgia. sir, i have watched your career. you're tough. is this too tough to handle, this ryan plan? i mean, the older people vote like bandits. nobody votes after 65, and nobody turns down medicare after 65. >> chris, one of the things the democrats don't say and i don't think it is their job to say it but as you know the ryan plan doesn't effect anyone over 55. medicare trusties say if medicare is going brow, in 12 years, so if you are under 55, it won't be there any way. the republican party is trying to move forward in doing something. i want to point out something also, the president's budget does not get one single vote. while it is true the ryan budget plan only got 40 votes the president of the united states budget got zero. and so when debbie, good friend she is, says we want to sit down and talk, you have to have an alternative. they haven't offered anything. if she and other democrats are so concerned about seniors on the program now, they should do somebody to protect and preserve the program, like offering their own alternative. they are not there at all. i think that is extremely important. >> just to get on the point here, i think most people, if we poll them, anybody polls them, wants to see deals made. that's why you folks are in congress. not to argue all the time. but to reach a deal on programs that matter to people. my question is this. isn't joe biden, vice president, are there people like saxby chambliss all involved to find a compromise right you now? >> you know, chris, i'm glad you brought that up. the gang of six, now the gang of five, have been talking and meeting, talking and meeting. and joe biden is working with a group talking and meeting. in order for us to sit down with democrats which we absolutely want to do because medicare should not be a partisan issue. that's why paul ryan's budget does not affect anybody 55 years or older. he is trying to protect it for future generation. but we need to have an alternative by the democrats offered. so far they're not doing anything. i think the democrats should listen to what president clinton said, don't misread the election in new york as a reason not to do anything on medicare. that would be negligent. the other thing democrats need to keep in mind is you had a third party tea party candidate, democrat himself but he ran under a tea party who spent $3 million of his own money and siphoned off 9% of the conservative vote which would have tipped the election in the other direction. i don't don't believe the new york race was on the ryan proposal. >> well, getting 47% for a d in that district is till pretty good. let me ask you about the ryan plan. what bugs me about the ryan plan is when you are 65 you can take care of yourself in most cases. some have bigger health problems. by the time you're 75, it's precarious. by the time you're in the late 70s, early 80ss, the health care is a big part of your life, meeting them. then the republicans have the ryan plan and say we will give you this voucher. it won't cover everything because you will probably have to pay a little more. how do you tell a person we will give you some money to take care of your health but we aren't really going to take care of your health? you have to take care of your end of it. that gets hard to do. most people have about $,000 in income -- about 14,000, they when they get older. they have a house if they are lucky. how do they pay health care out of that, out of 14 a year? >> remember, there is a sliding scale, with a heavier subsidy if you're lower income. i think that is the right thing to do, it is a means test on medicare which democrats bring up. remember, there is a 1999 proposal of democrat senator bob kerrey and a democrat from louisiana endorsed by two of the clinton-era medicare trustees. so this isn't some radical think tank from the heritage society. and that's what is so frustrating in this town, is you know what, chris, i said it many times, this is like skinny dipping. somebody has to be the first one in the pool and it is real lonely when you're the only one under pool. paul ryan is in the pool. we want the rest of the town to come along. put a proposal on the table. the president's mulligan budget, which debbie just alluded to, you know there were no proposals in there. it was totally rhetoric. there was nothing to it if -- if the president plays down a plan we will negotiate. that's what we want to do. >> you're the best arguer for this situation. by the way, i appreciate that. have a fine weekend. thank you so much for coming on "hardball." >> well, thanks. up next, the tea party wants to stop mitt romney from winning, this is serious business. there's a stop romney movement all right. how far can they go from w this? this is "hardball" only on msnbc. ♪ [ male announcer ] in 2011, at&t is at work, building up our wireless network all across america. we're adding new cell sites... increasing network capacity, and investing billions of dollars to improve your wireless network experience. from a single phone call to the most advanced data download, we're covering more people in more places than ever before in an effort to give you the best network possible. at&t. rethink possible. in an effort to give you the best network possible. discover customersl are getting five percent cashback bonus at home improvement stores. it pays to switch, it pays to discover. ex-illinois governor rod blah goich vich took the stand today, he said, quote, i used to be your governor, and i'm here to tell the truth. b-rod is facing charges inclusion allegations that he tried to sell president obama's vacated senate seat for personal gain. last year at his first trial he didn't testify, and the jury deadlocked on most of the charges. we'll be right back. >> we've got a flood. this is where the rubber hits the road, the nose breaks the grindstone, and the angels start second guessing where they tread. ♪ call 1-800-steemer >> welcome back to "hardball." tea party power in 2012 could make or break the republican candidate for president. that's why this headline about one of the most influential tea party groups is so significant. quote, freedom works goal, stop mitt romney in 2012. romney has the looks as everybody says and money as everybody says, and experience. so what is it that tea partiers don't like this this fellow romney that's leading the polls? matt kibbe, thanks for coming on. i want to give you some time to make your case. we have a little bit of a delay here so speak out. what's wrong with the republican >> well, i've been traveling all week through pennsylvania talking to tea party leaders, and time and time again what i hear from them is that they can't get past romney care. they can't get past the idea that a republican candidate for president would support an individual mandate where the government forces every american to buy a mandated insurance package, regardless of whether or not they want it, need it, or can afford it. that's just not the proper role of government. and mitt romney more than anybody else has been unwilling to walk away from what has been a failed experiment in massachusetts. they can't get past that. and it's opposite of the basic tea party values. we fought obama care, against the idea that government would intrude so deeply into the most personality aspect of our lives. and here we are, and we're looking for something better out of a presidential candidate. >> but isn't it true, just to make the case against you while you're here, matt that, a lot of republicans over the years have supported this individual mandate concept, that the hospitals shouldn't have to have people come to the e.r., pay for all of their treatment, and then get stuck without the check, that somebody ought to say, look, you've got to pay your way in this world. people likoren hatch over the years, and of course mitt romney when he was running for senator against ted kennedy, he was for a national requirement like this. is it your position as a tea party that it's up to the hospital to pay the medical costs if somebody shows up, that the people don't have to pay into any kind of health care insurance to pay their own way? is that your position? >> no, of course not. our position is that we want individuals to have more control over their own health care. i'd love to get third parties out of the system, whether it be insurance companies or the government. and the key to that is to fixing the tax code and letting individuals control those decisions that they make with their doctors. the last thing we want is some gray suited bureaucrat dictating which services we can or cannot get. that's just not frankly american. >> let's look at this. freedomworks grassroots liaison said, quote, i don't think i've met any group or groups or any local activists that like him or want him to be president. they just don't believe he's authentic. that's the biggest problem, in addition to the health care. let's talk about authenticity. i keep hearing things from inside the republican party, people like huckaby, who everybody in my business seems to respect a lot, who says that the man has no soul. john mccain refused to put him on the ticket last time. a newbie sarah palin rather than romney. what is the personal problem you have with this guy? it seems like there's a character problem, something more than just the position he took on health care. >> well, i don't have a personal problem with him. i actually think he's a pretty nice guy. he is a successful businessman. but we are loo looking for -- >> is he a man of belief? does he have conservative basic gut instincts? >> well, i think that's the concern that tea partiers have. they are not sure he believes what he says. and what we're trying to do in this process is see which candidates can actually do more than talk the talk. do they believe it, do they seem to be speaking from their hearts on the issues that tea partiers care about. there's a lot of candidates in this field, and i don't think we have to settle necessarily for has beens from the old republican establishment. >> well, you've got pawlenty. you've got huntsman, and mitt romney. does any of them light up your charts in terms of tea party enthusiasm? >> you know, i really like what tim pawlenty has been doing this last week, particularly going to ohio and challenging a sacred cow like ethanol in iowa. that's contrary to traditional republican and democratic politics. but i think what tea partiers are looking for is someone that's willing to be bold, willing to be different, willing to take on the establishment a little bit. >> you know, we'll grade folks on a curve. >> i hear you. thanks so much. you're looking at pawlenty as an example of someone who will better speak to your issues. when we return, let me end up with my sarah palin may end up stronger in defeat than in victory. she may just run to make a point. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. the new blackberry playbook. it runs all this at the same time. ♪ why can't every tablet do that? 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[ man ] at ge capital, we're out there every day with clients like jetblue -- financing their fleet, sharing our expertise, and working with people who are changing the face of business in america. after 25 years in the aviation business, i kind of feel like if you're not having fun at what you do, then you've got the wrong job. my landing was better than yours. no, it wasn't. yes, it was. was not. yes, it was. what do you think? take one of the big ones out? nah. ♪ let me finish tonight about rolling thunder. there's a certain outlaw quality to sarah palin just as there is to the bikers who converged on washington this weekend. think "easy rider" on the right. they come out of the vietnam war experience, these men. they came back to america in early 1970s and became a different version of the anti-establishment left that had opposed the war that they fought. well, this sunday, sarah joins the bikers to produce some powerful memorial day pictures for the country. it's a statement. let's not kid ourselves at what she could offer to the country starting after labor day. sarah palin is about to stake out a barricade situation politically. she is not out to win the presidency, but to lead a rebellion, losing will only build her strength. it's not the country she wants to lead iss, it's the cause. they want someone out there leading the fight against the government. the key to witness here is not the words she will speak in this quest but the anger she will show. what romney and pawlenty and huntsman have, experience, the ability to move and deal with the establishment, is not what the tea partiers want. what they want is what sarah palin has, the passion of the disposed. they want someone to stand up on the national stage and bellow at the government, keep their anger hot and getting hotter. if palin roars into this campaign with rolling thunder, expect the rest of the republicans will be battling to keep up with her. i hear huntsman will steer the republican middle, but don't expect romney or pawlenty to let her be seen as the true conservative against them. they will move to keep up with her, because they want what she has, the backing of the tea