Pressure . Thats what we want to talk about quadriga, with our guests. It is a pleasure to welcome antje bauer. She is a former journalist who reported from turkey for german media. Shes now project manager at the dw academy, responsible for Media Training for middle eastern journalists. She says, erdogan is coming under increasing pressure, but unfortunately, there is no political alternative yet. And its great to have Ulrike Herrmann on the show once again. Shes the Business Editor at the berlin daily, taz. She says, erdogans only in danger if turkey plunges into economic crisis. And its great to have bulent mumay on the show. He was formerly head of the Online Service at turkeys largest newspaper. He was dismissed from that post under government pressure. He is now a freelance journalist writing, among other things, a column for the german newspaper, frankfurt allgemeine zeitung. He says, the failed coup attempt strengthened erdogan, but events since then raise the question of how well he will do in the 2019 president ial election. I would like to start with you, bulent mumay, and ask where you see our country today, one year on after the failed coup. Bulent well, actually, a lot of things have changed in the country, and a lot of things have not changed in the country. Even before the military coup, we had a lot of pressure on press, and intellectuals and academics at universities, but after the coup, a became larger and deeper, and is still continuing. Actually, the measures that have been taken by mr. Erdogan against the coup has been started to be used against all opponents harder and harsher. Unfortunately, the country is getting worse and worse. Its a question like, if the coup is successful, what happens in a country . Academics are being expelled or being dismissed, and journalists are being arrested, but now we have a failed coup, and the results are not different than a successful coup. Unfortunately, we are suffering the same stuff nowadays. Melinda you yourself were arrested after the coup. Why, and what were the circumstances of your release . Bulent actually, i was accused nists in helping the military coup. Melinda remind us briefly who the gulenists are. Because for many of our viewers, that name is not so familiar. Bulent the gulenists are the group which were allies of mr. Erdogan. Gulen is kind of a preacher, now hes living in the u. S. , and he has a huge support in the country. He used to have a bigger audience. They were like governing the country in an unofficial coalition, mr. Erdogans Political Movement. One day at the end of 2011, they had a fight. We still dont know why they started to fight. They started to fight each other. They started to kill each other in some manners. Afafter that, the fight is gettg bigger and bigger. Now that we had the result in 2016 as a military coup. Melinda and you were bulent yes i had been blamed. , one day they knocked down my door and arrested me, and took me to the Police Station and i was put in a cell. I was blamed for being part of the military coup. It was the silliest thing ive ever heard in my life. I was one of the journalists marching against the gulenists. When the gulenists, policeman, and the judge were arresting our friends in 2010, i was in the streets criticizing them. We all know that is the reason the government wanted to punish all opponents, all opposition journalists after the coup, by using that blame on everyone. Anyway, i was one of the luckiest ones. It was just four or five days. Still, some of my friends who had been arrested with me, they are still in jail. One year they are still in jail, and they have not faced a judge. Melinda i want to come back to the circumstances of the media, but thanks for sharing your story. Antje bauer, the past year has seen not only seen a crackdown on critics and opponents of mr. Erdogans regime, but also a referendum that greatly expanded president ial powers. Not yet fully in effect, but the referendum did take place. To what extent is turkish democracy itself under threat . Antje i dont know how much democrcracy we still have. I think we cant really talk about the state of justice right now in turkey. People are arrested without any clear accusations. They are being held and detained for months without a process. I dont think we can talk about the state of law in turkey right now. We have like a demonstration of democracy because the referendum has been held, and general elections are being announced. How will you organize a referendum when the media are all under control of the government . What does that mean . That the people will be informed only from that one side . Do they know what that means . Did they know the consequences are, what the government did before their friend was having people being afraid of the kurds, of chaos, of gulen . There are a lot of devils in turkey, according to the government. So those people who voted for him, many of them just trying to be on the side of the angels, somehow. They didnt really have the babasis to understand what was going on. Melinda angels, devils, and Ulrike Herrmann, someone say a some would say a dictator. German media have referred to mr. Erdogan as a dictator. He absolutely protests that designation. What do you think, is he one . Ulrike yes, of course, he is a dictator. If you throw people in jail and suppress the media, and suppress the opposition, and get legally representatives are thrown in jail, thats a dictatorship. An outright dictatorship. Theres no question about it. Melinda one turkish citizen who has openly referred to president erdogan as a dictator is the head of the largest Opposition Party, the secular chp. He accuses erdogan of having exploited the state of emergency following last years coup attempt to carry out what is in effect a state coup from above. Now, hes calling for action, starting a march that began as a lone trek, and turned into a mass protest. Lets take a look. Annonouncer kemal kilicdaroglgu has long been considered boring, weakwilled, and too tame in regard to erdogan. But with his march for justice, the Opposition Leader was able to mobobilize the masses. As many as 20,000 people marched the 450 kilometers from ankara to istanbul. The rally at the end drew hundreds of thousands. We marched for the justice that no longer exists in this country, for our fellow citizens who are in prison, and for all the journalists who have been arrested. Announcer kilicdaroglu began to march to protest t the detention of a member of parliament from his chp party. President erdogan accused him of supporting terrorism. Yet, the march was allowed to go ahead. The result was the largest opposition rally since the protests in the park four years ago. Could this be the start of a new Political Movement . Melinda bulent mumay, you said in your Opening Statement that its questionable how well president erdogan will actually do in the 2019 election that is scheduled. Could what weve seen there be the beginning of an Opposition Movement that could actually threaten what appears to be his ironclad rule . Bulent actually, there is hope about that. That started in the previous referendum in april. Basically, chp had 25 vote in the country. Melinda chp being the Opposition Party that he leads. Bulent yes. The vote was just 25 . They were the main party who were trying to make propaganda. It was a big success that they were able to gain 49 . That showed the Turkish Society and International Media that turkey doesnt just mean erdogan and akp. People feel alone. People who are like us, on the streets asking for justice, they felt themselves so alone, because they are always under the strike of erdogans politics. Now, that march was a huge moral support to that audience that it will maybe be possible to make that 49 to 51 in 2019. The reason that erdogan is so furious and d angry about the marches, he knows that is the rise of the movement is going up until 2019, that can create the end for him. Melinda Ulrike Herrmann, you said in your Opening Statement that erdogan would only be under a really significant threat if turkey were to plunge into economic crisis. Why is that, to what degree could that in fact be the case . Ulrike i think you know that all these elections and referendums dont change anything, because whenever erdogan loses one of these votes, he is just suppressing people even more. Democratic institutions are no longer able in turkey to rein in erdogan. The only thing that can happen, according to me, is that his supporters, especially in the akp, lose out because of erdogan. If there is an economic crisis , and they are all supporters of erdogan because they got rich with him, and if they feel their own interests are in danger by erdogan or the economic crisis, then i think they would be ready to kill him. And i mean that in the real sense of the word. He would just be removed. But an economic crisis is very hard to forsee, because at the moment, the growth rates in turkey are going down, but there is still growth. It is not yet a catastrophic situation. There could always be one, because erdogan, according to me, is no longer acting very rationally. Just one possible scenario, he attacks one foreign investor for some reason, perhaps because he thinks he is part of gulen as well, then no one will invest in the turkish economy anymore. It is really dependent on foreign investments. That is just one of many possible scenarios where the economy could really suffer, and erdogan, growing more and more aggressive towards everyone else. Melinda speaking of the economic link, antje bauer, lets talk about who make up those who are protesting. Certainly in the protests, if you look back at the square mentioned d in that rereport, ww a lot of members of the turkish ururban middlecclass outut the demonstrating. To what degree could they form the backbone of political opposition . Your own Opening Statement expressed doubt that there is a real political alternative, but isnt that dissatisfied urban middle class a potential Opposition Movement in the making . Antje yes, it is. Theres no doubt for me about that. I think also that the people who participate in the march were all a part of the turkish public, thats what the protests were. I think the park was more young, urban students. This time, if we saw the pictures on tv, we saw that they were middleaged people, even some older people. I think this was much broader. It was, in the beginning, something of a movement of the chp, of the Opposition Party, but to the astonishment of everybody, included the leader of the party, kemal kilicdaroglu, and many people joined the march. I think it was an expression of a broader disagreement with the government. I fully agree to what he say you say about the paramount importance of Economic Growth for the maintenance of the government, but i think there are still additional factors. I think that the turks feel theres too much polarization in the country. Ive heard about many years that they are afraid of a civil war, which never happened in the end, but there is Something Like wanting not to fight inside of the country. I have never seen so much polarization, political polarization, as is taking place right now. That is one important thing which could also lead to a broad opposition against the president. I also think that they fear international isolation, because theres more and more of a shift towards other dictatorships, like russia, or iran, or middle stern coununtries. Not all the turks are happy with this. Melinda lets come back in a moment to the question of international pressure. One last question in regards to mr. Kilicdaroglu and the chp. Why hasnt president erdogan cracked down yet on him and on this new movement, and if he were to crack down, couldnt mr. Kilicdaroglu withstand the pressure . We certainly heard in the report that he is often seen as being rather weak. Bulent turkish people love charismatic political leaders, like erdogan is one of them. And my name comes from a leader 30 or 40 years ago, my father was a fan of him. We always loved that kind of political figure in the country. Unfortunately, mr. Kilicdaroglu is not that kind of person. He became a very interesting condition to becoming the president of chp. That was kind of a videotaped crisis, and he became the president of chp. Anyway, the problem is he knows that he is not enough for that. Especially in the march, the journalists asked him several times, will you be a nominee against mr. Erdogan in 2019 . He didnt say it directly, but he meant, i want to be. I think hes trying to just open the way, trying to broaden the opposition gateway to the 2019, and hes not strong enough. Anything is possible in turkey. Anything can happen. Since my 20s, i did journalism in turkey. Im 40 years old. As far as i know, they would not dare to arrest mr. Kilicdaroglu. That wouldld start somomething e in the country. Melinda several of you have made the point that for a real opposition Political Movement to gain traction, turkey would meet need a press that is able to report openly on the circumstances there. Let us, therefore, take a closer look at president erdogans treatment of the press, because it has been one of the main targets ofof repression. According to amnesty international, more than 130 journalists are sitting in turkish jails. Amongst them, the german turkish reporter, deniz yucel, who has been detained for the past five months. As you know, turkey has become the biggest jail for journalists in the world. So we are trying to get our friends out of jail. It is in no Uncertain Terms irreconcilable with the rule of law for an executive branch, in this case, the turkish executive, to rush to prejudgmen as s has ppened pupublic w with niz yuce i simplwant theublic osecutoro act cording constitional criria and formal charge myusband we wt my husband tget a fa trial. We have no hope of anything else anymore. Melinda Ulrike Herrmann, just this week in germany, president erdogan vehemently denied charges that turkey is the biggest jailer of journalists in the world. He said, at most, turkey is currently detaining two real journalists. He said that western media are full of bias in their reporting on turkey. Is there any truth to that . Are we too onesided in the way we cover the situation there . Ulrike no. Its probably the other way around, that we are too soft. For many reasons. Many media want to keep their correspondence in turkey. But in order to stay in turkey, you cannot report on anything you know, because otherwise you would be thrown out. That happened to a correspondent who would have been endangered if he had returned to turkey, because he had reported on leaked emails showing corruption of the government. Everyone who is in turkey is very careful. In fact, its just the other way around. Melinda bulent mumay, in that report, we heard deniz yucels wife saying she simply wants him to get a fair trial. Based on your experience, would you say that hope is justified . Bulent i dont think so. Im so sorry to say that her will will not come true in the country. Its not possible. Can you believe that a political leader, a president , is making a statement, he is saying i wont set him free until blah blah . You are not the court or the judge. How can you talk about a journalist, someone who is arrested . How can you talk about this case . Wewe dont have that kind of Justice System unfortunately nowadays, and im sorry that he will sit in jail, hostage. Melinda antje bauer, we heard the chancellors remarks in that report. Certainly german and European Union politicians have been applying pressure. Is it working and are they doing enough . Antje im not sure its working. Im not sure the European Union nowadays has the leverage. Behink what works can economic pressure. Otherwise, i see the german troops have been forced to withdraw from thehe military bae in the southth of turkey, a ande turkishh government didnt even try to settle the problem. So they agreed to that. That means they are really up to having problems. Thats very interesting, because this government started saying zero problems with other neighbors. Now they are having a lot of problems with everybody. Melinda indeed, they said, Ulrike Herrmann, prior to the g20 summit that took twice here in germany, they said germany was committing political suicide. Those where president erdogans words in a newspaper interview, because germany would not allow him to speak to a rally of turkish citizens living in germany just prior to the summit. What is behind the german refusal, and is that kind of ra moree on kara anka likely to drive change or a siege mentality . Ulrike he is not allowing german politicians to talk freely in turkey, so theres no reason why he, as a dictator, should have the freedom of free speech in germany. But it is very doubtful whether this is a diplomatic success in the sense that you can somehow get turkish supporters of erdogan to wake up, because erdogan then has the chance to tell turkish supporters and the public in turkey, well, im the victim, turkey is treated badly, we must fight against european neighbors because they are not respecting us. So in a way, it is difficult to put pressure on erdogan, because he can always use that for propaganda within turkey. The Propaganda Team confessed before the referendum when they had problems with the netherlands and germany that meetings had been done in these countries, they would have been raised two points. It worked for him. He used it. Melinda that would be the polarization factor once again. The Eu Parliament has called on the European Union commission the governing body, to suspend accession talks with turkey. The commission hasnt said yet it will do so, but mr. Erdogan also said this week that he doesnt care. He says if the eu turns its back on turkey, it doesnt matter, most turks have given up anyway on ever becoming members of the European Union. True, anday thats does that mean that the European Union also has no letters for putting more pressure on turkey . Bulent unfortunately, the dream of being a member of the European Union is over. Its not leverage anymore for turkey. Thee pressure of opposition from europe against turkey is too late. 2010, the after european society, they were silent. They were thinking that mr. Erdogan came and is changing the country towards democracy. Our european, colleagues are telling us, you think he has a hidden agenda, yes he has a hidden agenda. When he was trying to reduce the influence of the army, the he moved thought that turkey to democracy. Unfortunately, no. He was trying to and power himself more and more. Now the eu is not leverage for him anymore. Melinda antje bauer, i take us back to the statement of president erdogan saying germany was committing political suicide by not allowing him to speak to turkish allies. What exactly is he intending . If i come back to the title, erdogan under pressure, who more, europe under turkey, or turkey under your . Ulrike i think he can use this to increase support. Antje i dont know what he means by political suicide. But it is somehow trying to get their own ranks together and have people connected. Obviously, the march was a threat. Obviously, he could have prevented, and people could see it in other channels in turkey. They could see the march and things are going on. But i think he feels somehow under threat, but its not europe who is the main threat. It comes from inside. Melinda briefly returning to the title, erdogan under pressure, Ulrike Herrmann, where will it lead . We have come to a consensus, he is under pressure. Ulrike it really gets dangerous for him, because of an economic crisis especially. The first thing he would do is start a war against someone, against his neighbors, in order to somehow deflect public unrest and build the image he is a great leader. You saidbulent mumay, that you thought the opposition could gain traction, but youve also said theres not much we can do from the outside to increase pressure. Bulent the pressure from outside, unfortunately, can help him more. The problem is the inner structure should change the situation in the country. The problem is, when you have more money and more power, you steal more. I think he knows that the opposition today has 49 . In two years, if they can gain two more votes, he knows it will be a threat. Melinda pressure from within. Thank you for being with us. Thanks to all of you for being with us. See you soon. 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