August. Martin schulz is down but not quite out and some pundits they he will need a miracle to be chancellor merkel. Our question this week is merkel versus schulz no context . , a joined by Ulrike HerrmannBusiness Editor for the berlin daily, who says the only chance schulz has is to show he is something very different than Angela Merkel. He must not be seen as a copy of the chancellor. Also with us is matthew karnitschnig, chief european correspondent at politico, who believes the problem for the social democrats is not schulz but merkel. And a warm welcome as well to anna sauerbrey, editor at another berlin daily, who says schulz cannot catch up and merkel has the election in the bag. We will wait and see. Tell us about what just an important week this has been in german politics. Ulrike Martin Schulz originally thought that he had the chancellorship secured, and after this preelection, he has to realize that he does not because of the three elections that were all Regional Elections , a very important lesson, it was always the conservative candidate that when in the end that won in the end. Won in candidates who these elections are very close allies of merkel. Merkel not only won these elections, she also gained a lot of our within her own party so that you can be quite sure that the conservative party now will in close attendance to anything merkel wants, so she does not have to fear that the very conservative art of her party will somehow always disagree and be a Disruptive Force during the election campaign. For merkel, it is now very easy, and for schulz, it is now very difficult. Peteter how surprised were e yy schulz int of martin north west failure . Anna i was not that surprised because tendencies showed that conservatives were picking up. The surveys were not that bad. They showed just a couple of Percentage Points difference before the race, so it was absolutely possible, and the longterm trend from my point of view pointed toward a conservative win, and i believe the election showed that people prefer security over what Martin Schulz promises, which is social justice. Security is the major point they want to be made by their policy makers in berlin and elsewhere, and this is something that schulz will not be able to embody like conservatives and Angela Merkel can. I think he will be sort of the faint gray copy if he tries that. Peter i just quoted you as saying that you believe angela merkrkels conservatatives havee september election in the bag. Are you really convinced . This is a time where we are being taught time and time again that the Political Landscape is highly volatile, highly unpredictable you are not in. I see you. So. exactly peter anything can change. Theres four months to go. A bold know it is friction, but i believe the longterm trend points to merkel. The upset in 2016 she said was caused by her humanist approach to the refugee crisis peter early 2016 was when you wrote a piece in the New York Times saying that the merkel air is essentially over anna yes, i know, but it was not that she could not win another chancellorship what about how the mood in the country has changed and how we are going to war and much more conflict within society and the very cozy merkel feeling had. One for me, that was really a break with other traditions we have had in our political culture. I was not really saying that she would not win again. What ive seen happen is the are has called down, and we sort of entering the merkel era again because there is not that much distraction anymore in the public discourse. It is caused by policy changes the conservatives have made. They have picked up on the mood. They have together with the social democrats done a lot of changes and have introduced a lot of restrictions and security measures, and i think people are rewarding that, and this is what makes them the original, and this is what people will vote for when they vote security and 2017. Peter what have you got to say about all of that . Matthew i completely agree with the security point. I would say without calling into forecastingas prowess, i do not think it is that bold to say that merkel will win at this stage. We are four months out. There was a blip during the refugee crisis where germans lost some confidence in merkel, and ironically, because she was really sort of driven in my view s, she rightwing populist cracked down on refugees. It has become much more difficult to get asylum in this country than it was, and that is something that a lot of people wanted, and it is working. I think for the spd right now, the most troubling part of the thetion is the fact that cdu under merkel, for the First Time Since she became chancellor, i believe, managed to win back states from the spd. She has been chancellor since 2005, and since then, the cdu lost one state after another. Now in very short succession, they have of one back they statesn back a number of including the biggest. It is difficult to see a path, to be honest, where the spd, despite the volatility and Voter Attitudes and despite the volatility in the world right now, i would argue that precisely because the world has so unpredictable, in part because of donald trump, but there are other issues as well, but these factors, i think, will drive german voters to merkel because they want this reliability, this perception of stability that they have, so i do not see a way right now that she could lose, to be honest. Heater you talked about north rhinewestphalia, the significant of that state. Lets listen in to what Martin Schulz has said about the significance of north rhinewestphalia before the vote actually took place. The results are announced on the evening of may 14, the social democrats will be the Strongest Party in north. Hinewestphalia i will be paying close attention when those results start cominig in because they will show that the spd is going to be the Strongest Party in germany and that i will be germanys next chancellor. Peter weve used the word bold twice already in this discussion. That was a very bold statement. How much of a blow to his credibility is a Statement Like that, setting himself up as chancellor . That in combination with a couple of other things that happened during that time. He was elected as chief of the spd with 100 of the membership that voted that day, which is an extraordinary thing and people compared it jokingly to north korea and things like that, so he really was writing this wave where he seemed invincible, but even then, people were warning peter is this what they call the schulz effect . Atthew a little bit like souffle as though the air has come out of it now. He is a little more circumspect about his prospects now. I would repeat though that i do not know it is so much about. Chulz as it is about merkel it is interesting that her rise in recent weeks and this has really only happened over the last six weeks or so has coincided with a few important markers, in particular beginning with her trip to washington to donald trump where germans again standing their leader up to donald trump, be taken seriously by him, not letting him push her around, and that is going down well. This is the advantage she has. She met putin recently, and it was a similar dynamic. Given an even bigger stage to show that she was the worlds preeminent states woman. Martin schulz does not have any of these advantages. He will spend the next months making his case around martin around market squares in germany. Peter he is in a difficult place. Wille as i said, schulz never have a chance if he tries to be a copy of merkel. Shesagree with anna when says that internal and external security is all the germans worry about. There are very many germans not everyone, but 50 of germans are worried about their own Social Security. Economically, germany is very stable, but nonetheless, half the population say it is very unjust how germany is functioning socially, and the same 50 say that they themselves do not profit from economic lulls. These 50 wait for someone to come to tell them that their Social Security issues are safe and they have a program to. Ddress three major issues living in the city gets very expensive because you have to pay a lot of rent and it is always rising. Next, many people do not have enough income when they retire. That is a growing crisis, and then there are very many people who just do not earn a lot of money, despite having a job. People want to have answers for that, and the social democrats have to have solutions for these problems. That is, i think, the real losing, why schulz is out. They do not have any program. He runs around the country and talks about Social Security and social justice at no one. Really, no one. The voters in the journalists just do not know what he means with that and that cannot continue. Heater anna, you are nodding. Anna i agree. I think one item that would sort of be lacking which the conservatives can better embody that scholz can ever is than schulz can ever is their identity when it comes to security. This is something many people feel very insecure about. Where is this country going culturally . When you look at surveys, about half of the germans say they are in some way or another afraid of islam, and every fifth german even holds hostile views towards muslims. I think that is something that the social democrats just cannot address in the way the conservatives can, with, for example, the light cultural debate that was just started by minister of the interior peter implying that there is a core, central german culture, a national culture. Anna that should be reinforced with demand for a ban of the islamicd a law for communities. This is something that conservatives can give the voters but social democrats cannot. It is true, all youou say about germans ideas, but on the other hand, those voters for the Rightwing Party say in surveys that 85 of them feel economically insecure. If you give them the chance to decide if they want to have economic security, which is proposed by the spd, hopefully, or if it is just against muslims, i think many will decide that it is a better idea to vote for Social Security and not to care about muslims anymore. Would be a very strange idea to think that many people would somehow think that cultural security is more important than their own Social Security. Im somewhat skeptical about these surveys saying germans are so worried about their economic future. It might be true, but it is not being shown in the results from these elections, quite frankly. In theuld have voted really Leftwing Party together with the greens and the social democrats in north rhinewestphalia. Instead, they voted in the center right together with the businessfriendly liberal party, so given the chance, they went in the completely opposite direction, even though there are plenty of people in north rhinewestphalia who might not be doing that well economically, so i wonder if there is Something Else going on. When people outside of germany here there is all this social struggle and all of this angst going on about the social situation, they might find it surprising. They have full unemployment, the economy is growing much stronger than it is in most of europe at the moment. Not to say people are not suffering, but overall, things are quite good here. But somehows true, approaching a situation like the united states, who also has full employment, but it is not about the end unemployed. It is about working and not earning enough. Havee united states, you full employment, and nonetheless, people vote for someone like trump, and that is social protests. Probably if Bernie Sanders had been running against trump, he would have been voted for. Very many people do not profit from the economic growth, and in germany, that is still hidden by other issues like how we feel about muslims. It would be very important for germany to address these issues. Peter before we continue, lets listen in to again to Martin Schulz because he says he is going to put up a fight, using a boxing metaphor. Lets listen to it. You t takeg, sometimeses a hard blow to the body, but that does not mean your opponent will win the next roround. I am a veteran campaigner and behind me stands t the leadershp of the social democratic party. We are determined to o ke on this challenge, to deal with it effefectively and to bring aboua successful result for our party and our country. Peter we cannot write him off yet. He is a man of great result. He has overcome a diversity in his private life we know several times. I think he is a fighter and will put up a fight, but i think just the circumstances are sort of against him. I want to pick out what Ulrike Herrmann said just before the break people do worry about their material security, of course, but they can get that with conservatives, too, because they are promising tax relief for middle income classes affect but thehey will only the rich. That has already been calculated. Anna but i think also the upper middle class, and there are a lot of those voters who change from voting spd to voting conservatives every time, and we have seen 350,000, i believe, of voters who vote for the conservatives came from social democrats, so there is a big block of voters that go forth they feel they can expect some tax relief and maybe if they are not married and have a child they can get some benefits. Actually put the identity question first, but that is very hard to prove. It is just a gut feeling i have. Peter matthew has already mentioned Angela Merkel has a huge advantage being out there on the National Stage where her opponent does not have that exposure to the international audience. To confirma look that, and then i have a question for matthew. Angela merkel simply does the job she was elected to do. She governs. She welcomes heads of state like newly elected french president emmanuel macron. Or meets russian president Vladimir Putin in sochi. Or takes part in a womens summit in berlin featuring ivanka trump. The chancellor can draw on vast reserves of political capital. Artin schulz cannot how much of an advantage does that give merkel . Peter a huge advantage, you have already said, but we talk a lot about the social democrats mantra of social justice. What is the message Angela Merkel is whispering in the ears of german voters that makes her so persuasive and so apparently unbeatable . Matthew i think it will be the same slogan she has used in her past reelection campaigns, which is, you know me. You can trust me. I represent stability. I represent the status quo, which is why i have my doubts. Not for ideological reasons, but i wonder how many germans feel they are about to slide into poverty. Given the chance again in north rhinewestphalia, the left party, which is to left of the spd, did not even get into the state parliament, which to me was also a signal that maybe these issues are not resonating, even though they do not necessarily have a Clear Program, but the cdu does not have a Clear Program in that regard, either. These tax cuts and these types of things may help the upper class and the middle class, but the zone not people that are necessarily worried about how they will pay their rent next month. I do think there is a sense that germany is doing well and we need to have merkel in the chancellery to ensure that also europe, which we have not talked about, does not come undone. These are important issues, and it is a question of trust. Not that people do not trust schulz, but he is untested. He has never really held an executive office. He has been in European Parliament for the last couple of decades. Before that, he was mayor of a small town, so he does not have the same kind of experience. He has never even been a minister. I think these are all things that will come into play as people cast their votes. Peter we just saw the new french president visit germany. Who can best form a tandem with micron macron . He says together with germany, he will mold a new europe. Who is more suitable . The cannot be any alliance between france and germany because the German Economy is hitting the French Economy very hard by our exports, and macron made very clear that he will address the issue of german export surpluses, and also the spd thinks having export surpluses is a very good idea, so macron will clash with any politician that comes from germany, no matter if it is schulz or merkel. Anna i think what we saw in the past days was actually quite hopeful. Started to macron govern and even before we know who is going to govern germany after 2017, some of the most critical points were sort of swept off the table. Charlotte charlotte schauble, the minister of finance in germany, said they want a minister with a known budget, which is something the french have in their program for the european union. On the other side, macron said while he does not insist on euro bonds or for the communal is asian of debt in europe, so i guess the tandem actually could work out, and i think it will work for both of them. Peter you asked the question initially. What is your answer . Matthew i think it does not scholz orter if it is merkel on that froront because t is clear with all the stress the euro and the euro zone have that something needs to be done. I agree that nobody wants to address these issues now. Neither the spd or cdu is going to say when he to do something about this in balance in europe with germany being this strong exporter, but i think merkel especially knows that things cannot continue now because the result would be that the euro would fall back into crisis, and theres no country that benefits more from the euro than germany, and with brexit now on the table and all of these other challenges that he europe faces, i think that this is the moment where france and germany are again going to have to lock arms and do something. It might not be quite as dramatic as the french might be hoping with the european and eurozone budget,t, but something needs to happen here, and i think it is interesting and maybe a little unfortunate that europe is not playing a bigger far in this campaign so because neither party, i thinin, wants to a acknowledge what will need to be done, which means germany will have to pay more if they want to keep europe intact. Peter how come after 12 years in office, when you talk about the social injustice you have mapped out i will give you four minutes on this bececause e are running out of time, but im fascinated to know what you will say how come there is not more merkel fatigue in germany . Ulrike because she was the most difficult distant politician germany ever had. Anna i agree. I think she is an institution. That is not for me. It is down to what is really the point. Peter your take . Matthew i would argue she is almost an antipolitician. She does not have any real ideology. She is a pragmatist and a product of the time in which we live wherere ideology y no longr plays such an important role, so she can switch her views on things there quickly, the refugee crisis being perhaps the best example. Peter thank you very much for that. Thank you, all of you, for your views. It has been a fascinating discussion. If we have given you food for thought, join us next week on quadriga. Byebye. 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