Nationalisting populism resurgence, what kind of leadership can be expected from Angela Merkel . That is what we want to talk about today with three guests who have been following germany closely. This is the director of the European Democracy Lab at the European School of governance in berlin. She says praising Angela Merkel today as the only remaining leader of the free world makes us quickly forget the enormous responsibility of germany for the populist crises in europe. Him back great to have with us, the Senior Editor at. He berlin daily he said do did germanys terrible history, their polarizing refugee policy, Angela Merkel can only be a Strong International moderator, but not the leader of the free world. And the head of political formering, and Parliamentary Bureau chief. He says chancellor angela is als fourth candidacy decision in difficult times, but not a signal of reform for new politics. Times, thek guardian, the economist, all describe the chancellor in the last 10 days or so as the last remaining world leader of the west defend liberal values. Is Angela Merkel being touted largely by default, because there is nobody else appropriate for this role . Or is there something unique about germanys position and political culture . I think there is something unique about her because she was the first woman, she did eight years of successfully. She has proven she can manage power and circumvent crises. Yes, germany is an important country, so she has a powerful position. But the rest i think is by default. Spainen the government in so yes, long, brexit, she is one of the remaining leaders in europe who survived, basically the crisis years. That is feeling her power. A germany itself as a survived the crisis years well, doing economically a great deal better than any much every other member of the eu. Appeal toof this Angela Merkel for leadership a result of their economic prowess . You have to be fair and give credit for changing the social system in a way that he lost his job. He was kicked out of the chancellery. It is merit, she continued policies, but on the other hand, there is an Old Age Pension Fund , they are not very hopeful. It is a combination. On the one hand, her personality. She does not dominate others, at least not visibly. Tries to bring people into contact in conversation. With turkey, she continues to hold up the conversation as well as with putin. That is a reputation. And a countrys wellbeing and her position there adds up to her international reputation. You said in your Opening Statement that germanys historic role as the country that perpetrated the holocaust it from being a leader in terms of western values. But couldnt you make like the opposite argument that it is precisely because of germanys confrontation with that history that it has developed a culture of restraint, stability, and Great Respect and tolerance for diversitity andd openness . All of which in fact, d do maket a leader . Correct, i think both readings are correct. In the ukraine and russia in many places, and the netherlands, norway, wherever soldiersoulders conqueuer different countries. This path is not forgotten. Sometimes forgotten more in germany than these places. Least thees at responsibility to be as modesest as angela merkrkel is. But to be the leader of the free world, and that includes the United States of america, auaustralia, new zealand how can Angela Merkel leave the United States of america . It is impossible. She cannot leave europe right now in the state it is. She might be the only one left, but the only one left with very little ability to change things. The question is not whether she can leave europe, but it is whether she should. I think she should not. There is a deep dilemma and concern. Is not germany, and they should have different personality run the Company Without her at some point. Second, the replacement i germany, it is not good for the others. Council, foodean Angela Merkel did the shuttle diplomacy. Melinda those are not every day names. Preparing for the doopean union, they should the shuttle diplomacy. That is my point. There is too much sublimating. Of reflux. Ts take i would like to delve into more detail into what we mean by leadership in what areas are being talked about here. The first, because you mentioned how modest the chancellors, lets look at her own attempt to manage expectations when it comes to her leadership. I am honored by all this talk that s says everything now depes on me. At the same time, i find this discussion rather grotesque. With a not even someone huge amount of experience, can change the situation in germany or europe for the better. The german chancellor certainly cannot do it. Melinda Angela Merkel said no single leader can turn things around either within europe or on a larger scale, internationally. Lets look at some of the areas that are being mentioned as ones where germany could exercise some warm of leadership. With anll start she called on germany y to preserve the liberl world order including Climate Change and trade. Is that really all that farfetched as a role for germany . This is one of the worlds preeminent trading nations. It has a very strong stake in keeping open, international trade, and moreover, germany has gone way out in front in terms of a major transformation of its energy system, which is intended to make germany eventually climate neutral. True, there is a stake in Climate Change. You could discuss that with the right move. In an economy, that is an established, traditional role. It is easier to adapt. Think the man you takes the stakes too high. The liberal world, whatever is left, led by a german chancellor, i do not think any other german politicians or i think it has to be a common effort. Ledger me contribute. Is thethe problem perception in many countries. Many countries became much more nationalistic as we saw with exit in Great Britain and the election of donald trump in the United States, polish government, hungarian government, developments in france and the netherlands. , andver happens in Europe Merkel is going to lead, she will be seen as following german interests. That is how everything is seen in the world. The leader who tries to bring an interest and keep things totogether, the president t of france will say Angela Merkel just follows german interests and that is why we have to fight the european union. Ulrike we are celebrating andel as a leader of world a strong leader in europe. Before germany became the leadership function country we had a dominance feature in the european union. Dominance was not good for europe. We are now talking about the threat of rising populism you mentioned it in france and other places. We also need to say that in the years between the banking crises from 2010 to 2015 it was quickly matched to german dominance. Saying that merkel is only is wrong. Leader also the refugee crisis, there was a huge amount of refugees, i was in favor of this. But it was also a german decision to take the refugees. On thenot consulted european the level, we made that is a german decision. And now we wonder why the other countries are not egalitarian and follow populism against the refugees. There are also consequences and causes. Make it feelauses like merkel is the remaining leader, germany takes full responsibility. Melinda restraint and modesty are all very well. But the fact is, in the face of rising rightwing nationalist truly not think your country needs to get out for thed stand up values of your constitution and your rule of law represent . I hear all three of you saying, no. Notdrich the role is taking on a leadership role but to defend your positioion, the rule of law, democracy. There is m more work to be done. This country spends 1. 2 of its theational product british, french, and United States spent 2 of its gdp. That is 1. 2 come back to. Role lies ahead, she must change politics from the inside. The benefits of social Democratic Change and reform. Spend much on defense. Melinda lets come back to domestic politics. Lets go back to defense. European Union Leaders are now starting to say, in the wake of donald trump selection, we absolutely must do more. And not just merkel but the finance administrator says we will go up to that 2 of our gdp on military expenditures. Do you think german leadership can work in the security area . Malte that should be the criteria for german leadership, if you spend that percent for defense measures, that is not the defining moment for leadership. You are right, marco is by far is most experienced merkel by far the most experienced freership in the liberal worlds. She knows every agreement by heart, she is very knowledgeable. She is the one that should take over the role. She is in the disk in the position to defend the free world. But there are a lot of limits, she cannot play this card quite a lot to read she should claim the values, the western values, the right of law, freedom of speech, freedom of religion. She made it clear after donald trump was elected to say we will work with you on the basis of this and this and she mentioned all the values she will defend. Friedrich i did not define the leadership role aced on how much money we spend. But if you want to be a leading person in Foreign Policy and a Western Union or world, you have to come up with the same amount of expenses as the others. Not one of them is defending the free world. You have to meet these expectations. Melinda let me give the floor to two issues. Perhaps you would comment briefly. The first one, security. There is an idea that donald to somey come up degree, if not entirely, reduce the u. S. Role in nato. Hence, the great interest in the eu to increase European Countries cooperation on security issues. Is there a leadership role there for the chancellor . Number two, values. Ulrike yes, there is a leadership role for the chancellor and germany. The other thing, how can it work . French, notor the that i do not like this, but do at forget if we do francogerman agreement but do not talk about the polls poles, they will not be happy if used if you decide for other countries. Security, theyng cannot come in the classical formation of Franco German settings. Germany will defend the rule of law. But you also n need to do polititics. The origin of european populism is a dramatic mismanagement of the euro crisis and its consequences. Policy not good for spain and greece. Such a complaint about the rise merkelulism and say mrs. Needs to assure our values, we could say, should we have had a better policy on euro mismanagement . Perhaps there would not have been a need for populism and we would not need merkel as leader. On the subject of the values, when the chancellor congratulated donald trump on his fakery she did so with a statement that essentially laid out the Democratic Values on the basis of which that cooperation could occur. Some people said that was a nap salute diplomatic come a stroke to essentially design the parameters and remind him of important parameters. Others said it was absolutely condescending. What do you think . If she congratulates the new president of the united , she follows what she has to do is a western leader that does international work. I only congratulate if you do these policies. It was being impolite without being nondiplomatic. Malte it was a brilliant thing to do. Friedrich i did not deny it. Hownda let us not forget very closely she worked with predecessor, the still president , barack k obama. In fact, he was here in berlin after the election and had this to say about the chancellor president obama if i was here in germany and i had a vote, i might support her. He said he would vote for her if he was a german, but went on to say however, i am not sure if it would hurt or help her. The implication being, that praise from abroad might not do her any good here at home. , Angela Merkelnk in the face of rightwing populism here in germany . How strong or her chances that she actually can win the next election . The electionsk are quite open. We are not sure what coalition she might prefer. We talk about the green coalition, there are a lot of possibilities. German election was elections will depend on much. You s and ill tell there is an italian referendum, a dutch election, a very important french election. All these votes together will impact how the situation will be next fall. Can she win or not will largely depend on what happens in other countries. France ando wrong in convictions, trump can win, brexit can happen, even though we did not think it would happen. If we have a wave of rightwing it could change the balance in the party system. One reason for Hillary Clintons like of popularity was fixturee that she was a on the political stream as a member of the mainstream political elite for decades. Couldnt one make the same argument about the chancellor . Couldnt that work to her detriment . Malte there are some similarities, i would agree. E. Development until the next election, you have something new in world politics. Still existed, there was the real existing socialism. Not the one we dreamed about, but the one with the gulags and everything else. Now we have brexit and donald trump. This will work as a deterrent i hope to many, many people. Maybe the simple message, either you vote for this kind of populist chaos you see in the United States and Great Britain, or for some simple things like stability and continuity. Ulrike it does not work. Malte you would nevever have te situation. The challenge is Great Britain. Many in britain are regretting the voice of b brexit. The next to turned is the United States. Deterrent is the United States. Do you think germany is in some degree immune to the kind of antielitism sweeping the rest of europe . Perhaps in part because of that historical experience . Especially to the , from 1933 to 1945, there was an exclusion to this. They are be 10 , 12 , but the that does not change the outcome. The chancellor can calm external obstacles. She is in a position to choose. Whatever happens will be a great coalition. Outsider, lets stick to what we have. Stability. Spd going into a coalition with ththe elitists, part of them do not want to be members of nato. Part of them object to eu policies. And the head had some very strong praise for donald trump, astonishingly enough. We are almost at the end of our time. Whether you would agree with that, we do in fact see a new trend toward very hard righghtwing m media, breitbarte website that in many ways helped generate much h of the support r donald trump now saying it will open a website here in germany in time for the election. Germans remember the dangers of rightwing populism, but how about younger ones . Ulrike and we have bundesliga isil and those who do not trust other countries came first. There is a trend and we need to be very careful. Last question, fourth term for Angela Merkel as a whole work of democracy, yes or no . Malte yes. Ulrike yes. Friedrich yes. Melinda many thanks to all of you for being with us. 8uxuoa nwcoco everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and wellbeing of including food, clothing, housing and medical care and the right to security in the event of unemployment sickness, article 25 of the un declaration of human rights work, wealth, greater equality. How can we mak h