Also opposed to merkels policies. Theyd like to shut down the ball con route that many refugees use. Opposition in germany is growing too. The christian socialists complain about what they call a state of lawlessness. Can the chancellor survive this challenge or is this the end of the merkel era in coming to you from berlin, quadriga, the international debate. Your host this week, peter craven. Peter a warm welcome indeed. Coming to you from the heart of the german capital. This week its all about the german chancellor, Angela Merkel, she has her back against the wall, many people are saying shes more isolated than ever before , in germany and in europe as well. Thats the reason why the question were asking this week is, is it the end of the merkel era. To answer that question, i have three excellent guests with me in the studio, let me introduce to you, beginning with alan posener, a regular commentator die e berlinbased daily welt. He says merkel is paying the bill for her arrogance. A warm welcome also to Constanze Stelzenmuller who normally works out of washington where shes an expert on foreign and Security Policy at the Brookings Institution think tank. This is not the end of merkel, constanze argues but to win over germany and its neighbors shell have to start making big compromises. And greetings to anna, with another berlin paper, der tagesspiegel and also writes regularly for the New York Times. She says Angela Merkel used to stand for a strong middle ground in politic bus now we see a time of division. Lets begin with you, anna. I mentioned you wright for the New York Times and your most recent piece was much quoted, most talked about. Controversial, i might say. The end of the merkel era. No question mark, interestingly. What was your message . Anna i didnt make the headline, evidently. But how i view it is, i was focusing first of all on the german side of the problem, that i think we already have seen the end of an era because germany in the past decade has been has seen a movement, a trend toward the middle, both politically and in society and merkel was the epitome of this movement, being a woman, being an eastern german, in her person, everything came together like all the parts of German Society seemed to Grow Together and do like this really cozy, huddle thing in the middle of society. And i think this has ended. And merkel as a symbol is facing the problems of this new diversion and the forces we see at work in germany now. Per the md has changed if the germans have fallen out of love, what has made the atmosphere so sour . Anna i think what i underestimated myself and what merkel maybe has underestimated is that the fear that is growing out of the influx of migrants and refugees we see currently in germany and maybe she, like i, thought that the middle was stronger, that we would be able to welcome those people in a different way and it seems like in the last summer and now we see that in germany, lots of historic fear, the fear of islam thats been at work in germany before and these voices have found one voice and then and then a new party, and this is changing things around in germany. Peter i got the sense that behind the scenes here in berlin more and more people are talking about the demise of Angela Merkel as a real propross tissue prospect. Is that the sense you get as well . Alan i get the sense that people are talking about it but dont quite dare to go there. But its wishful thinking. Theres no one who could take her place. Thats the problem. What you said is not quite true, is it . That merkel represented the cozy middle ground. The point was, there was no alternative to her then and no one now. One reason is that we have a party in parliament, the socalled left party, which refuses to govern, which makes it impossible to form a leftwing alternative to the chancellor, so shes like the sun in the middle and every other party except the Left Wing Party wants a coalition with her. That hasnt changed that situation hasnt changed. There is still no alternative, politically, no personal alternative, theres no one to take her place. Thats not something i think is good, its a fact. Peter my personal response to that is, for the last 10 years, merkel has given germans precisely what they wanted. Constanze distressingly, i am on record with a 2005 oped predicting a maximum of two years rule for merkel and it had a title which i indeed suggested, which was dead woman walking. I believe this was not taken well by the chancellory. That tells you how good my predictions are. But i tend to agree with anna. And perhaps a new point which is lets not forget that merkel both recognized a tremendous amount of social change in germany, which was that there was a large camp of democrats which were sick and tired of old white men telling them there should be no gay marriage and there were a lot of gays in the christian democratic camp. And there were a lot of people say, we do need a more liberal immigration policy and so on. She recognized this and moved it forward and got other people to do this as well. I think we ought to be grateful for that. This is theres a swing of a pendulum happening now with the eernal pressures, forces coming to bear on germany but i think we were very lucky to have had her for as long as we did because i dont see any other politician having done, achieved what she did. Also like alan, think theres no replacement for her right now. Alan the point about this new party, the a. F. D. , is it is in opposition basically, although the leader of this party is a woman, it is a leader of the it is a party of the losers, of the old white men who feel theyre not represented. And its about much more than just immigration. Its about they dont want germany to modernize. Theyre sick and tired of the whole system. This is the real danger of this party. Not the fact that they mobilized xenophobea and so on, antimuslim feelings, thats bad enough. But the worst thing is theyre mobilizing a general distrust of democracy and theyre being helped, by the way, by people in moscow and so on but thats another topic altogether who want to use them as a lever to destroy the european union. Its about much more than immigration. Constanze i think the big question is, are they picking up a mood thats already been there or is the mood growing and right now we see anna right now we see the polls for the f. D. Grow every weekend and theyre now at 17, i think, which is scary. But this is just like a glimpse of the moment or is this something, is there a new movement . Are there more people going into or moving toward that position . As you said, older white men, we know that theyre the Biggest Group thats supporting it. If its limited to this spectrum, the movement or the trend is limited. But that makes it hard to make predictions really. Peter you two were engaging in Anna Sauerbrey je la merkel fan club. Before the cameras. One of the words a lot of commentators have been using re in germany the suggestion is merkel has not given people an opportunity to have a full and proper say on the refugee crisis and other matters too, she leaves people no chose and no voice. Alan you asking me . Peter i am. Alan the parties were elected, the parties that form her coalition were elected by a margin of 60 or 70 . They still have other 60 approval ratings. This is what im getting at. The idea that parliamentary democracy somehow doesnt represent the people, the demonstrations saying we are the people, there was a peter we heard about a bavarian ally, talking about her period in office as a reign of injustice. Alan hes not quite wrong. She does respond to popular moods, Angela Merkel she can and shes good for some surprises but the fact is, the present situation where were not controling our borders, where Asylum Seekers are coming in, is not, its not lawful. In fact, its in contradiction to the constitution. Hes right there. The question is, what to do about it . Constanze i would say that a lot of her competitors are perfectly cape obviously selfimmas cuelation and they dont need help from her. Thats one of the tragedies of the current german political scenery. But i also think frankly, and youve said this before, this lawlessness talk is going a bit too far. We candice agrow on policy but to suggest that there is, you know, that there are grounds you know, for suggesting that her whole regime is illegal, i think is hysteria, i do. I think its irresponsible to use language like this. It just, it makes him i think it pushes him to, you know, beyond the pale of respectable debate. Anna it is extremely cheap too. Hes part of the Great Coalition he doesnt have an office but hes head of one of the three parties that form this Great Coalition so he could have done something. Peter it must be frustrating for merkel to see him making these comments in this way , my guess. Anyway, well come back to you in a second, constanze. Were talking about, rightly or wrongly about the possible demise of Angela Merkel, one thing we have learned from her long career in office, she has immense staying power and perhaps shes not as isolated as it seems. Angela merkels political career is far from over. She has the support of a number of european states that back her policy on refugees. Eastern European Countries also realize that this situation would be much more difficult to resolve without merkel. In germany, shes a Political Force to be reckoned with. Her poll numbers have fallen but theyre now about the same as youd see for any other western politician who had been in office for 10 years dealing with all kinds of crises. And her christian democrats are still the countrys strongest political party. Lots ofiermans have volunteered their time to help the refugees. Even germanys Opposition Party support merkels policies. In what other country would that happen . So the chancellor will stay right where she is, at least for the time being. Peter constanze, another take on the myth of merkel, shes playing a long game a long game she will win. Do you buy into that . Constanze i would i cant look into the mind of the chancellor. What i do know, though, is that germanys constitutional culture and its prophecies severely disapprove and the Constitutional Court has made it plain et that it severely disapproves of attempts to unhorse the chancellor before his or her time. Thats mostly why i think thats not going to happen unless her own Party Decides to withdraw their support and i dont see that happening because they dont have a viable alternative. Anybody who complains about the weakness of other politicians in germany shouldnt blame the chancellor for that. Thats their problem. I do think that all the parties in germany have been exceedingly bad at grooming new generations. Its one of the weaknesses of the c. D. U. And the others that they dont do this well. But that said, i think a far larger problem is the lack of support for the chancellors policies and there you can blame her. Peter the picy on the refugee crisis, 0of t germe germa people believe she no longer has the situation under control. Constanze sure. We saw in the Munich Security Conference with the french Prime Minister say, were tpwhot following you on this. Well take what we promised but not one refugee more. And i think that that is that blame has to be laid at the door of the chancellory because this government, i think, is famously inept at persuading other governments in europe that it is in their interest to follow the germans. There are exceptions, and the most important one is the sanctions policy where i think we can be grateful for strong german leadership. Otherwise, i would say the record is middling. Anna i think much of the unrest we see within the Christian Democratic Party is due to special situations, we have three important federal state leches coming up in march. So peter there are genuine problems to be solved. Theres an influx of refugees of 1. 1 million so far this year. Were told its likely to be at least 500,000 next year. Thats a make crisis. Why hasnt the chancellor changed course . Why hasnt germany changed course the way the swedes and austrians and other who was taken in many, many refugees. Anna we have changed course. We havent shut the border. Peter one leading german newspaper said, germany has the last open door in the western world. Anna its true we havent set up fences on the bavarian border but in all other respects we, with the help of the social democrats and even the support of the green party, we have done a lot. We have declared secure country, and we will probably do so a few more. Thats just one element. We are working on getting the families of the refugees who are already here to germany. The policy is much more restricted now or will be whenever this is set into law. So there are many small steps which sum up to a change of course in merkels policy. Peter why do 80 im often surrounded by liberal, rational, pragmatic, confident, forward looking journalists like yourselves and i know that there are rabid crowds of people out there on the streets, 80 of the germans who still believe that merkel does not have the situation under control. It doesnt fit together. Constanze were also saying shes got a problem. But i think we all three agree, perhaps all four, that we, on the point of principle, shes right. And you cant just pull up the drawbridges and assume in an interdependent globalized world that the germans can trade with themselves and otherwise, you know, telephoner that friends across the border. Thats ludicrous. Peter lets come back to this point, alan, youre an anglo german, you will of course be aware of the fact that Margaret Thatcher used to talk about there is no alternative, it was one of her slogans for talking up her own leadership. Im troubled by the fact that a consensus among you guys that somehow a country like germany, with all its economic and political and social resources, cannot come up with a decent opposition and decent opposition figure, it worries me . Alan worries me too. What can i say. This has to do with the numbers in parliament. It has to do with the fact that we have a Left Wing Party, a radical Left Wing Party incapable of governing and cannot form a coalition, therefore there is no left wing, leftright divide and change of government and the only everyone just wants to get into bed with Angela Merkel, right. Peter this is still the case . Alan of course its still the case because there is no alternative. If 80 of the germans say she hasnt got, you know, the thing under control, of course she hasnt, who does . Does obama have it under control . Does mr. Putin have it under control . No, they dont. This is beyond controlling. Something you have to manage as it goes on system of you know, but this is one of the things that is rather worrying. The germans believe that politics can be controlled and if it isnt controlled, it starts to go on the barricades. S the german hysteria people in the rest of europe are worried about. You have to sometimes live with situations you expect control nd deal with them. Constanze for the record, there are some deeply unimpressive opposition figures in the rest of europe, starting with the u. K. Peter talking about the rest of europe, lets go to france. Lets see whats happening there at the moment. For decades, germany and france worked together as the driving force behind european unity. France is concerned about germanys economic clout but during the financial crisis, paris supported berlins demands for drastic austerity measures. At the summit a year ago, merkel and french president hollande worked together to bring peace to ukraine. The french Prime Minister said recently his country will not take in more than the 30,000 refugees it has already promised to help. That appears to be a direct challenge to chancellor merkels policy of working toward an equitable distribution of refugees among e. U. Countries. Are relations between france and germany cooling off . If so, what will that mean for europe . Peter youre shaking your head vehemently. Constanze im shaking my head because that was a very rcastic rendition of le marseilles, which wouldnt please our french friends. Peter one newspaper called this a stab in the back. Constanze thats a german term which has a historical connotation that i think we should avoid. Peter accusations of recrimination. Constanze anything like that is , in itself a failure of diplomacy. If a french Prime Minister feels it behooves him to get up in munich and say, forget that peter is it a negotiating position . Constanze i take him seriously and it means the chancellory has failed egregiously. And that means the relationship is bad and obviously that this kind of thing will spill other into other parts of the relationship. So thats public embarrassment. That said, you know, i think we its not as though the french have any great alternative ideas. Lets be honest. Peter i am more more concerned than you are because the frenchgerman tandem has been at the heart of everything in europe. The tandem looks broken. That has to be a huge problem. Is europe wobbling as a construction . Anna historical things do play into the Current Situation in europe. The frenchgerman axis of of course has a historic connotation. Theres a lot of romance woven around this axis. And im not sure whether this allows us to have a clear and pragmatic view. I think this is a problem, of course it is a problem for merkel but not because its france thats missing out on supporting her but because she doesnt have any alternative allies at the moment. But if she found them if she found them, for example, in Northern Europe or in the netherlands or even in poland, if she arrives at an agreement with poland and the paltic states why not form different coalitions. Peter is this the future of europe . Alan definitely. The french tandem is indeed dead. It was a myth, has been a myth for the past 10 years. One of its greatest product the euro, is something a mixed blessing, to say the least. And yes, europe needs to be put on a Stronger Foundation and it cant be the old empire of sharl maine. Charlemain. Of the yeern europeans are merkels last great hope for the refugee crisis. What theyre probably going to do is cut off the border to the balkans that will mean virtually no refugees will arrive here. Ms. Merkel will complain about it but shell be on her phone say, keep that fence, keep it. Nstanze you do admit that these people are a did bifflet to work with right now . I mean i, like you, believe that germany shouldnt even attempt to run the show in europe and that this is bound to go badly but the reality is we have got some difficult maybes out there right now and thats, you know, i think we have to acknowledge that. And there are some positions we would probably sit here and say, theyre wrong on this. Alan i dont think theyre wrong on this. If germany always has deals with russia over their heads, what can we expect . Constanze they dont always. Peter i have to break this up. Is this the end of the merkel era . Constanze yes. Anna yes it is. Alan in germany no, the rest of europe, yes. Peter if youve enjoyed this as much as i have, come back for our next show. Byebye. Dbbu uuuuuuunna damien hello and a very warm welcome to this weeks focus on europe, where we go behind the big headlines to give you an insight into the lives of real europeans. I am damien mcguinness. Thanks very much for joining us. On the Programme Today the refugees of sweden, who are living in a ski resort. The young people of france, enlisting to fight terror. And the danish town that has a beef with pork. One of the most explosivsu