Gilda sahabi is an author and journalist of iranian origin who writes among other publications for the german daily. The gilda sahabi is an author and journalist of iranian origin tots yalda zabab r is the head of the farsi desk here at bella. Were very pleased to welcome her as a colleague and daniel dylan burma who reports on iran for the berlin based daily developed also joins us and gilda, if i can start with you, it is of course not only women, but also school girls who are now tearing off their hijabs in public. Their headscarves are now becoming a symbol for defiance of the regime where is this fury coming from . Have you been surprised by its force . I must say. I have actually, i mean, weve weve had this pro protest for three weeks now roughly and when they started i thought, well, it is new. A lot of it is still new women and men going together chanting as you said, women like freedom, which is new because all genders are together. Theyre fighting for for womens rights together and human rights, but now its jens eases rising up as well. We see gen z rising up all over the world and now we see in iran and the force and the courage ofhese girls, these young girls who know the hierarchy of this oppressive regime in schools. Weve seen schoolgirls like shouting out the director of the school. Its just seems that i am surprised by because of the force the power of them and yelled a this of course is not the first protest in iran in the past decade but it is unique in that it was led initially by women and girls. Do you think that will make a difference to its outcome . I definitely think it will and what we can see already is that these protests have a different dimension, a different quality than all the other protests in the recent years. But we have to say iran has seen we have witnessed a lot of wave of protests in the last 40 years but it it was more like every 10 years and then we can we could witness that how these how it became every year. So we had 2017, 2018, big huge protest then we have 2019 which was more of course i forgot to mention 2009, which was the green movement, which is very important. But then the difference was it was more about reformers or or hardliners, it was about more is very important. But then the difference was it was freedom, it was the students, the elite more or less not asking for a regime change or the change of freedom, it was the students, the elite more or less the system of Islamic Republic. Indeed there now shouting death to the exactly no we dont here the slogans about reformers or or or hardliners, what we hear is this to dictator and addressing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini and because of this, the role of the women in here being on the forefront of this protest, this is really gaining a different dimension and they are really addressing one of the symbols of the Islamic Republic. They are challenging um there he dropped the forced the job for women so daniel as weve heard the protests have been gaining momentum many, many students now joining the protest but also facing a very violent crackdown. Do you think that the protesters can maintain their opposition, their defiance in the face of violence . I think it will be a struggle, it will be a very hard struggle, we will likely see this going on for months. And if you look at the details of whats happening in individual cities, you see that the level of violence is rising and that the government of iran has basically told um its population that everybody taking part in these demonstrations faces the risk of death and um this is definitely a new situation and i think it will be hard to maintain this level of protests, but i think whats sure is that iran will not remain the same after this kind of protests no matter if this system can be toppled now or not. And we want to drill a bit deeper into precisely that as the protests proved to be more than a temporary outburst, the regime has moved to shut down internet access, blocking social media platforms. Thats made it harder a temporary outburst, the regime has moved to shut down for the victims of official brutality to document it. And still some images of Police Firing live ammunition at crowds and beating civilians who are unarmed are getting through and arousing widespread revulsion. Women life, freedom has become their rallying cry. Thousands of iranians have taken to the streets nationwide since mid september fueled by rage and grief over the presumably violent death of sheena masa amini. The Morality Police arrested and detained the 22 year old woman for allegedly wearing r hijab incorrectly. What exactly happened next is unclear but in many fell into a coma and died shortly afterwards. In we are dying and we will take back iran also joined the growing demonstrations against the oppressive Government Security forces and the islamic regime. But retaliation has been to date, acts of solidarity have been pouring in from around while the iranian government demonstrations has been heavily criticized by the u. S. Europe, but at least in countries like lebanon, will the protests topple the mullahs regime and gilda, let me put that central question straight away to you, how dangerous is this for the regime . I think its very dangerous. I think what daniel said, whatever happens this flame that we have been seeing on the streets in all over the country, it wont go out, it wont go away. And we see the young girls they have seen, they have felt you cannot underestimate the importance of emotions here. They have felt, they have experienced freedom theyve taken off their hijab, they have danced on the streets, they have sang on the streets, they felt it all the experience at all. And it is true that the regime is cracking down very, very hard on everyone whatever, wherever they see something, weve seen videos of um the regime is cracking down very, very hard on everyone Security Forces just shooting randomly on the street, like things that thats just unimaginable for us here. And even if they do end at some point, which we dont even know. I think also that it might just go on for weeks or months, this is not gonna go away and i believe that the resistance that weve been seeing now is gonna get more structural and organized. I dont think theyre just gonna leave it at what it is right now. Very interesting. I wanna come back to that point in in just a moment. But but looking at the causes of this, yalda, how much of this is about the tragic death of masa amini, whom we saw in the report and how much of i it is about a whole pile of additional indignities. It is both actually we have to see that people are fed, up people are especially women, 50 of the population that have basically lost all their rights in the last 40 years since since since the Islamic Republic was founded. So um and and then we have economic issues, we have human rights there is that do not exist basically. So what we what the difference is here with the tragic and brutal death of masa masa amini, this is something that everyone can rely, she is a symbol for this protest. We did have symbols for protest but not a symbol that everyone can relate to every woman like every woman in iran growing up, you get to experience the Morality Police you get this brutal humiliating experience, experience and violence through Morality Police because of not being able to wear or to dress the way you want to because of a little bit of, i mean the thing is she was not even without a hijab without the headscarf. She had it just not properly, not probably put on as they as they put it. So theres many, many iranian women do. Exactly and that emphasis we see 40 years ago how it started and there were women taking to the streets and protesting against the forced hijab but then they with the repression and they had to kind of accept it. But what we see now and you know the headscarves uh getting loser etcetera. This is an achievement of the women in the last four decades. But what i want to say is of course now this is so many more. This is about so many more and so many. I think its very powerful to see how men supporting women on the streets, how the young generation especially took uh is taking. And another dimension or another factor supporting women on the streets, how the young generation especially factor is i think also i mentioned School School girls school students. So we have 11 aspect is the Students University students because in the last protest it was said that the Student Movement is that they are back and they will organize themselves and this will go on even if its thin, it will not go on on the streets. If they will really crack on, crack down on protesters, this will go on and universities, people will organize which of course we just have have seen daniel as i said, the internet has been shut down. Social media sites are blocked. So how much do we really know about the breadth of this movement, protesters themselves say it has become a revolt. Would you also use that term to describe it . I think its fair to say that it is a revolt because its so broad. We dont know the exact size. If you look at the various human rights organizations and opposition groups, they hand out figures know the exact size. If you look at the various that differ widely. What we know is that its taking place in definitely more than 100 cities and places. So the geographic or do we know anything about whats happening in the countryside . Well, we know that it is going into the provinces, there have been some reports also about action in villages, but what we know more about is whats going on in the city. So the scope of this is very big and i think whats most noteworthy is that the kind of people taking place is very very broad and i think this is what makes the crucial difference here. The last protests, like the fuel protests in 19 2020 they were more focused on the poorer classes. The 2009 protests against the likely fake election in 2009 was carried by the middle class is to a large degree. Now we have everybody on the street. And the interesting thing is that this was possible because it focused on women because this experience of marginalization of women is something that every family in iran knows no matter where its placed in the social stratum. And i think is something that every family in iran knows no matter this has supply also because basically everybody thought iran in the end, its a macho middle Eastern Society and its not that simple and also about the cities because 70 of the population do live in cities. So its not even if you dont know exactly whats going on in the, on the country side and the provinces most people do live in the cities. So and can i just ask you guilty because we heard the religious leader of iran, the ayatollah recently blaming the violence of the protests on irans usual scapegoats the u. S. And israel and he was looking pretty confident when he spoke to the public. Do you think he will get buy in for that narrative . Well, hes had practice for decades. Like what weve been seeing is was it was to be expected i mean, he did hold back for quite a while they were like, i mean, there have been rumors about him being sick for a long time. Everyones like, is he sick . Is he not sick . Everyone believes it. And what we saw was just the same thing over and over again. And what i believe is that this was directed not at the people because people in iran they know that theyre lying. Theres no doubt about it. When you ask, when you talk to people in iran, everyone knows that theyre lying to them all the time. But when, when this is directed especially to the two to the west, like we have it under control, we have its you know, we we do what we always do were gonna bring this down and israel and the us are to blame. Thats a thats a play and the game that weve been seeing over and over, but still things are not changing. Thats the difference this time, daniel you were looking slightly skeptical there. Yeah, im not sure that Everybody Knows theyre lying. Im not sure that all the population is against the regime. I do think that there is of course, im i dont mean that, i dont think that youre meant to imply that. I just think that its also important to keep in mind that there is a hard core around the regime which is bigger than the hardcore around most regimes around the world there is a Popular Movement of the besiege around the regime whose size is depending on the way you counted between a Million People and maybe 12 Million People who both depend on that regime economically and who also mentally and psychologically, deeply, deeply rooted in this. And they do feel under attack, they have been feeling under attack since the 80s and they see this as a continuation. So one of the scenarios that we should be looking at is not only a violent regime crackdown, but also a kind of a civil war that might break out because there is another side of the regime, they are not the ordinary people though, we have to actually make a difference, it is right, it is correct what daniel is pointing to, but we have to see that this hardcore and what you you named it also the revolution revolutionary guard copes the basijis, these, they are of course they will die and you know, give die for, for to keep up the ideology of the regime to keep up the islamic to hold you know, to hold onto the Islamic Republic and its ideology, but there are less and less normal people normal as to say even religious people who had maybe 40 years ago, 43 years ago supported the Islamic Republic and their values, even those we know that they have turned their back on on this this way of ruling and this uh interpretation of uh the that they have turned their back on on this this islam by the by the by the clerics. So so i think we have to of course they will be corrected and they are in power and the relation guard corpse have economic power. Its its you know, they they task is to defend the enemy inside and outside of the country. But i still think that what we can see on the streets now also is that this is different layers of of society, united, standing united. And let me let me briefly ask about that if i may i want to quickly move on to ask what the west can and should do. But first getting back to your remarks that youve made about the fact that you think the protest can endure and you think you see clearly clear leadership or that the potential for clear leadership i believe you said that and also daniel, i wouldnt say leadership organization, organization normally we say that for protests to really become Something Like a regime changing event. It requires not only leadership but also Security Services or some part of the government to switch sides. Who amongst you sees that likelihood. There are signs already. Weve seen videos on social media of uh people even from the normal army or also uh im not sure. I dont i think i dont think they were revolutionary guard people but still army who said stop killing iranians like theyve posted videos online and and thats the first time were seeing that. I dont think there will be a leadership. Im not sure iranians like leaders like one leader and also the regime would remove them immediately. That wouldnt work. It has to be brought. It has to be something that all people carry together. And thats what were seeing. Okay lets sorry im going to make a cut there because i do want to talk about how other countries can and should respond and in many european countries, irans ambassadors have been summoned to account for the regimes crackdown. The u. S. Has imposed new sanctions on iran. The eu is threatening to do the same. But would they make a difference . The deal was replaced by a policy that maximized political pressure and imposed an even tougher embargo affecting for julie every sphere of life and no iranian has been spared. The sanctions are very tyrannical. This is a tyranny against the people of iran. It is important to us to have the sanctions lifted but negotiations for a new deal are slow to progress and the mullahs regime doesnt seem to be in any rush to comply. Meanwhile there are reports of iran expanding its Uranium Enrichment Program meeting the country is closer than ever to having nuclear capabilities. Why wont it run concede on the Nuclear Issue let me put that question straight to daniel. You know just a couple of months ago, it looked like the Nuclear Agreement could be revived now. It seems to be dead in the water once again. Why is that . And what does the stem still mean for western leverage vis a vis iran. I think we should be really, really worried about the state of the Nuclear Talks because if you talk to the negotiators to the people who have been sitting on the table on the negotiating table with the iranians for years, even those who have defended this process and this attempt to reintegrate iran um are now in doubt whether iran at all wants a deal. And the reason is that they have progressed with a Nuclear Program so strongly and in such a clear military direction this is so clearly now a program which is directed at acquiring at least Nuclear Weapons capability and theyre now um obstructing the negotiations by opening up questions that had been negotiated before. Um so the doubts are very big here and i think the connection to the to the unrest in iran is that of course preserving the regime thats the First Priority which the iranian leadership regards both in the Nuclear Talks and an internal policy. And i think that this unrest will accelerate the decision of the regime either to go for Nuclear Weapons or Nuclear Weapons capability or change. Of course, what we are not what we have not been seeing in the last few years is that the likelihood for changing course has grown has actually diminished as radicalization. But lets remember the thing that brought iran to the negotiating table back in 2014 and 2015 was sananctions and yalda additional sanctions. Would they actually hurt the regime, which has a record of corruption and economic mismanagement or would they hurt the iranian people . The thing is, um we need more pressure on iran, the west. The you need another iran strategy. The worst thing to do now is to get back to the to the nuclear deal as if nothing had happened. And this is this this is a really bad signal for the people in iran because as you know, sanctions, of course they hurt people. But on the other hand, do you we didnt hear any slogans on the streets saying, please lift lift the sanctions because people know, even if you lift the sanctions, its not the people who will profit from that. It will basically make no change. So that it is important to put, it depends on what kind of sanctions. Um there was there was were talking about you know, sanctions on persons, on on persons responsible for the crackdown for killing their own people, but responsible is uh in the end the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei for for all this. So i think it is symbolic, this uh in the end the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei for kind of sanctions, it is good, but its not enough in a word briefly, what would you want the eu to do . What is that new strategy look like, hold iran accountable for what is happening in in the country right now. And another aspect is very briefly for the people in iran. Its very important to see support what in one dimension is, you know, artists, celebrities, people speaking out, people, you know, solid, solid arising with the people in iran cutting their hairs, we have the french actresses and some others cutting their hair, this is strong people see that, but what we now we cannot leave them alone because what is happening is the internet shutdown we had in 2019, they will just go on and kill and arrest. We have arrested gilda. I i had a quote from one protester that i saw when i was preparing for this show, who said the regime is trying to turn iran into north Korea Nuclear armed and completely isolated. Is that a real risk . I dont think they will be completely isolated, i think russia and china are happy to jump in. So i think its important for the west, like we heard from the German Foreign minister on monday she said she showed compassion and and and she acknowledged the fight of the people and she said its too bad, we cant really do much. But thats not true. Theres a whole range of things that can be done in in foreign policies there. You can freeze assets, you can stop children and families of these regime people from traveling all over the world like spending all the money that theyve taken from the people targeted sanctions and that wouldnt hurt the people because as yoda says like they know that theyre not getting any of this any of the money thats coming in. So i dont im not sure if they can turn iran into north any of the money thats coming in. So i dont korea because theres just too much connection to other to the rest of the world. We have families all over the place, people are connected. Yeah. Let me ask daniel briefly, lets come back to the title, iran rises up can then well lets be toppled. Nothing lasts forever. Thats for sure. So youd say yes, its possible. But the question is the timeline and what the risk and the fallout for the security of the middle east enhanced for europe will be if we dont let people in, iran alone if we do support. And just briefly, what we heard in the streets is this is not a protest anymore. This is the beginning of a revolution. One word yes, thank you so much to all of you for being with us. Thank you out there for tuning in and please send us your comments on our topic. We