Youre watching First Business financial news, analysis, and todays investment ideas. Good morning. Its thursday, november 29th. Im angela miles. In todays first look the president obama congressman boehner bounce after struggling through the first half of the session, the dow made a tripledigit turnaround, going from red to green on upbeat budget comments from washington. Gold took a hit, while oil slipped a bit. Regulators are pushing off the final draft of the volcker rule into next year. The rule limits the ability of banks to trade stocks, options, commodities, and more. Aaa predicts gas prices for the year 2012 will be the most expensive ever. The National Average is 3. 63 per gallon, topping 3. 51 in 2011. The current price is 3. 41, down a penny in the past week. Mark sebastian of option pit mentoring and consulting joins us now to talk cliffs and bluffs. Good morning to you. Good morning. Still no chance we are going off that cliff according to traders . I guess not. It is interesting what will happen when politicians are short on detail, long on optimism. We could really get a nice rally. We took a nice technical bounce off the 200day moving average around 1385. I dont think we see any real resistance til 1425, unless a politician opens their mouth and sends us tumbling right back to 1385, which can happen at any moment. It is really what is driving the s p 500 right now. Meanwhile bonds are bouncing, and gold sold off heavily yesterday. Yeah, terrible. There are rumors that the fed is going to announce a further qe, which is always going to make bonds rally. In gold there was a Huge Customer that had a sellon open order yesterday and sent gold tumbling off its 50day moving average. However, gold really kind of held up without hitting any real technical level. I think this is an excellent opportunity you could walk in and scoop up gld or the gold futures. Do you think we will have a december affect with all these corporations starting to give the dividends now instead of 2013 . Yeah, i mean, i think they are going to call it december 2012 special dividend dec. If you see stocks with a lot of cash, there could be some opportunities for a special dividend. One that comes to mind that nobody is talking about apple. How much cash do they have on hand . It wouldnt shock me if they had a special dividend. There is a lot of cash happening there. Good to have you on the show. Have a good day mark. Thanks for having me. Small business got the president s ear earlier this week on the impending fiscal cliff. Today, president obama meets with mitt romney for a private lunch at the white house. And treasury secretary tim geithner will hold talks with congressional leaders about reducing the deficit while keeping the economy growing a lot of input being gathered on how to resolve the inevitable. President obama met with his cabinet wednesday for the First Time Since his reelection. But otherwise, his schedule has been filled with Business Leaders and resolving the fiscal crisis sooner rather than later. Families need confidence to go out and spend going into christmas. Tuesday, leaders from Small Business gave their views. I said the more people have money in their pocket, the more theyll spend and well do better. I suggested raising the minimum wage, tying it to an inflation index, and National Leadership in Online Retail taxes. And theres a concerted public effort the white house website features an appeal to speak out to keep taxes from going up on the middle class. If congress does nothing, taxes up 2200. That 2200 morphed into a white house Twitter Campaign my2k to encourage americans to weigh in on the debate. But ultimately, this still comes down to negotiations within, but mostly across, party lines. Its not clear how much twitter or input from Small Business will sway the balance one way or another. My view is that im happy to be a part of that. Im grateful for the opportunity and its not every day that you get to spend an hour in a room with the president. Ceos from wall street met with the president wednesday. Morgan stanley Ceo James Gorman is asking his 16,000 employees to reach their members of congress. And at ts ceo, randall stephenson, is involved with a group called fix the debt, which is lobbying congress as well. Overhaul action is happening overseas. The European Commission is proposing a plan that will completely change the eurozone by creating a common budget for the 17 nations. European leaders will talk more in depth about how to keep better track of finances among the countries at a summitt in middecember. In a quick read on the latest comments out of the feds beige book, the fed notes the u. S. Economy is growing at a steady pace. Hiring increased in many areas. Manufacturing slowed in some sections of the u. S. , and Hurricane Sandy hampered northeast economic growth. Information compilied in the feds beige book will be considered at the feds next meeting december 11 12. The dollar figure on damage caused by Superstorm Sandy continues to climb. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is asking the federal government to cover nearly 37 billion in damages. Fema has already handed out more 500 million in assistance. Yesterday, new York Governor Andrew Cuomo pegged sandy damage at 32 billion in his state. Insurance giant allstate predicts it will lose 1 billion dollars in catastrophe costs in october, mostly due to sandy. Bp is getting a slap on the wrist from the government. The Enviornmental Protection Agency will temporarily suspend the company from opening new contracts. Following the 2010 deepwater horizon spill, the epa says bp acted with a lack of business integrity. It will not impact bps current contracts. Earlier this month, bp pled guilty to charges connected to the 2010 deepwater horizon spill and was slapped with a 4. 5 billion fine. Bps suspension could last up to a year. The criminal investigation into the explosion that killed 29 miners reveals more signs the owners may have violated federal safety rules on purpose. A u. S. Attorney is charging the former president of Massey Energy with conspiring with other company officals to order workers to break safety rules. A tragic factory fire in bangladesh is putting a spotlight on dangerous working conditions. Saturday, a fire at a bangladesh clothing factory killed 112 people. Its the worst industrial fire in the countrys history. However, its been Public Knowledge for a while that working conditions in the country are highly unsafe. Bangladesh is a major exporter for the Garment Industry in europe and the u. S. The Associated Press reports the factory had orders in from Companies Including walmart, disney, and sears. Police have arrested 3 supervisors of the factory for negligence. Highspeed trading firm getco is offering to buy troubled Knight Capital. Knight shares jumped on word getco may pay around 1 billion for knight. Getco values knight shares at 3. 50, which is 41 higher than where the stock closed friday. Last august, Knight Capital sent out erroneous orders in 140 stocks that list on the new york stocks exchange, leaving the firm on the brink of collapse. A Software Glitch was blamed. Some retailers are giving the gift of incentives. Its to help them bridge the lull that often follows black friday weekend to the panic that comes over americans the weekend before christmas. Gapowned Banana Republic will give away six fiat 500 cars in the first 12 days of christmas. Analysts say the promotion helps fiat with Banana Republics demographic. Jc penney is offering cashmere scarves and firewood. We have this big rush, then the lull; and if its extremely low, coming out of it may be very, very difficult. Despite the postblack friday slump, retailers are preparing for a solid Holiday Season. The board of directors for groupon meets today, and speculation is growing it could mean the end for groupons leader. The online coupon company has made some misssteps during the past year, although it is considered one of the fastest expanding u. S. Companies and is doing well in europe. Yesterday, groupon founder and ceo andrew mason told the editor of the Business Insider if i ever thought i wasnt the right guy for the job, id be the first person to fire myself. The stock rallied 7 yesterday, but is down 80 since its ipo a year ago. California is no longer just dreaming of a better economic situation. Its slowly becoming a reality. One of the countrys hardesthit states during the recession has made some vast improvements in key areas. The states unemployment has recently dropped to 10. 1 it was 11. 5 just a year ago while home sales in the southern part of the state jumped 25 in october. Foreign Car Companies are on a fasttrack to the l. A. Auto show. Fiat, jaguar and hyundai are among the automakers dominating floor space at this years show in an attempt to entice the allimportant u. S. Car buyer. Meanwhile, in atlanta, porsche just broke ground on a new headquarters that will employ 400 workers. Still to come, what could be the years Biggest Record breakers at the box office . Thats later. But first, how to make your dollars go further during the Holiday Shopping season. Thats next. If you missed black friday and cyber monday, do not fear. The biggest markdowns may still be yet to come. Mark your calendars. Free shipping day falls on december 17th, and consumer savings analyst Andrea Waroch says that pushing your shopping closer to christmas may actually end up saving you in more ways than one. According to adobe, they did a little bit of research and found that the biggest markdowns will start on monday, december 17th, which happens to be Free Shipping day. Over 2000 retailers will offer Free Shipping with guaranteed delivery by christmas. And on top of those Free Shipping deals, you can find already reduced merchandise plus discounts, and just look for those types of offers for that entire week before christmas, and if youre shopping online, even the weekend before christmas. Woroch says retailers like kohls and macys will be scaling down prices closer to christmas, and that some smaller oneofakind shops will make a similar move. Having a wonderful christmas followed by a debtheavy new year is no fun. Paul golden of the National Endowment for Financial Education is with us this morning. Good morning. You have 5 tips to manage holiday spending, starting with stop at one. That is right. That is probably the biggest pitfall that we all fall into. I think it is very common to hit the stores with our list, and we have already bought something for somebody, and then as we are roaming around we will see another item, and it looks like a great gift, so we will buy that as well, and maybe we dont return the thing we previously purchased. Once we start to exceed our budget with overspending like that, we are really going to get into trouble. So it is important to really be mindful of who youre buying for. By one gift and stop right there. You also say its important to make concessions. What do you mean by that exactly . You have to think about everything that is going to affect your holiday budget with your spending. And its not just gifts. A lot of people will really get into spending with decorations and wrapping and holiday cards, travel, entertaining. You need to be mindful of your entire budget. You may have to make some concessions not only taking people off your recipient list, but also limiting how much you are going to go to parties, how much you are going to travel, and the type of entertaining you are going to do. You just have to do a lot of planning ahead of time on those. When you say shop smart, i am assuming you mean make a list before you go to the store . Yeah, and its not just having that list before you go to the store. You want to stick to it obviously, but look for deals. You want to check your circulars every week, you want to get online and look for deals and bargains online and really do some cost comparisons as well. As we saw through the first opening holiday weekend, a lot of people were taking advantage of deals that they found online, and of course doorbusters. So it is important to really kind of pace yourself and wait for the best deals that are out there. Limit credit card usage is also on your list, but that sounds nearly impossible. What do people do, take cash . It is tough. We have done a survey on this, and we found that most people do pay cash for their holiday expenses, or at least that is what they report. 44 of people say that they are still using credit to pay for their holiday expenses. The Silver Lining within that number is that most people say that they plan to pay off their balance within the first statement cycle. We all know that things come up and we get a little complacent come january, so, it is really kind of a slippery slope if you are putting expenses onto a credit card and expecting that you will pay them off. If something happens, you can kind of really carry that balance over, and that is when the Snowball Effect starts. That is terrific people are using cash. And finally, be realistic. What do you mean by that one . Being realistic is just knowing what you can reasonably afford and comfortably afford. I think it is very common to get swept up in the elation of the season and have people who are buying gifts for us who maybe have more income means to buy, and we get caught up in keeping up with the joneses, and we want to give gifts that are comparable to the ones that we are receiving. You need to be mindful of what you can reasonably spend and what you can afford. The best thing that you can do for yourself this Holiday Season is giving yourself the gift of financial security. So keep in mind what your budget is and stay true to its. Thank you. Paul golden of nefe. Happy holidays. Happy holidays to you. Still ahead, a windfall at the box office. What new challenges lie ahead for blockbusters. Thats next. Thanksgiving weekend turned into a nightmare for dreamworks at the box office. Our movie man, erik childress, is here for movies and money. Good to have you back on the show. Thank you. Lets get down to it overall, the ticket sales for thanksgiving were outstanding, record breaking. But there was one film that managed to move a stock. Tell us what happened. Dreamworks, their big animated film for the holiday was rise of the guardians, and we all expected it to do very well. I said right here that i thought it could challenge twilight for 1. And it just didnt. And i think it was just a case of the marketing. The marketing kind of failed to really sell what this movie was. They started off trying to sell it as santa claus and the easter bunny teaming up to battle evil. That wasnt working i guess, so they turned it over to like the cute little elves and the wacky elves going for the despicable me audience. And it just didnt work. People didnt show up. Here is what happened last weekend at the box office. The twilight saga coming in at 43 million. Skyfall at 35 million. Lincoln at 25 million. Rise of the guardians, 23 million, and life of pi at 22 million. And i saw lincoln and i loved it. Everyone seems to be loving lincoln across the country. Selling out shows. The chicago symphony plays on the track. Yes. And its gorgeous. John williams, a great score. Daniel daylewis hes gonna win. Hes gonna win the oscar. Hands down. I forgot it was him. I really thought i was watching lincoln. I think the movie is going to win best picture. Thats my call. Absolutely. And i also saw flight over the weekend another great movie. Excellent. Absolutely. Great movie. Moving on to whats coming out this week. Theres just so much to watch the collection and killing them softly. The collection is this horror film. Its a sequel to a horror film that not very many people saw a few years ago. Forget about that one. Killing them softly, brad pitt plays a mob enforcer, and the movie is really sort of about how the economy even affects the criminal underworld, and how even theyre sort of selling themselves off for the highest buck and their prices are going down. I am not crazy about the movie. Its more interesting to talk about than to actually watch. What do you expect at the box office this weekend coming off such a huge weekend last weekend . I dont think you are going to see much out of the two new releases. I think you are probably going to see there is going to be a battle at the top of the box office again. I think you might even see skyfall take the no. 1 position from twilight this weekend as it drops. But i think over the next couple of weeks you are going to see skyfall and lincoln kind of rule the box office until the hobbit comes out on the 14th. So you are going to see some tremendous numbers as we head toward a recordbreaking year at the box office. We will talk to you about the hobbit as soon as you screen it. Yes we will. Good to have you on the show. That is erik childress, our movie guy. Thank you. Coming up, why one trader wants to fill his shopping cart with costco stock ahead of the holidays. Chart talk is next. Costco is the the latest company to share the wealth so to speak. Lets bring in scott bauer of trading advantage. Good morning to you. Good morning angie. So costco is doing that special dividend to avoid alleged higher taxes coming up next year. What do you think about the charts on this one . It looks unbelievable. Yeartodate its up 25 . In just over a yearandahalfs time, the stock has doubled. I am usually one to look at a chart and play off the technical analysis, the fundamental analysis, and say, boy, 100, 101, was some sort of resistance level. But not in this case. If costco continues to beat their guidance, continues to beat their comp store sales, it looks like, going into this Holiday Season, it is just going to be up, up and away for this stock. The fact that they just came out yesterday, announced that they are going to pay this 7 special dividend. These shareholders that have held on to this thing, not only have they seen this huge appreciation in the stock, but boy are they being rewarded right now. Again, i dont see anything in the nearterm that could even cause this stock to pull back. Really . It looks great. How high could this go . After they pay their dividend, i wouldnt doubt if it comes back over 100, because, dont forget, after it pays this 7 special dividend, the equivalent of the 101 stock price is really 94. I see this thing by the end of the year being back over 100. And what is the highest the stock as ever been . It is there right now. Yesterday we traded up to 101, 101. 50, and that is the all time high. And i think it honestly is going to keep making new highs on a weekby week basis, at least in the near future. If you had any concerns at all about this stock, what would they be scott . That they cant keep the growth that they have shown, that they cant continue these yearoveryear, monthover month sales at the pace that they are. But, with everything hanging in the balance the fiscal cliff, the economy, everything people still shop at costco. And that is the goto name in this industry. And like i said, i dont really see a lot of downside to this stock. I dont usually say that. I dont see a lot of downside here. I dont hear you say that often. That tells me a lot. Good to have you on the show. That is scott bauer of trading advantage. Thanks angie. Thats it for us today. Check us out tomorrow for traders unplugged, as we get the real deal on how traders make money on cyber monday and black friday. Thanks so much for watching. From all of us at First Business, have a good thursday. Right now firefighters are on the scene, we will tell you what they found when they went inside that house. The next big storm is headed for the bay area. Well, we are in between the days and we have also rainfall projections as we go ahead to thursday night and friday. It is all ahead on the ktvu channel 2 morning news. This is ktvu channel 2 morning news. Thank you for waking up with us early thursday morning. Early is the operative word. Lets go over to Steve Paulson for the weather, it is on its way. Well, it is already getting a little breezy as the south wind kicks in. There will be hit and miss showers but the front is up towards crescent road