Nasdaq tumbling 2. 54 . The rate hikes coming. Perhaps as soon as the feds meeting later this month. And i think you need to be ready for cash when it does, because i dont think this selloffs over. You need to understand the risk world here. It is true. It could hold steady. You could miss 2 , 3 , 4 rally. But considering that janet yellen and Stanley Fisher talked openly of the need to raise rates. And then Eric Rosengreen joined the course. I think the risk is too great to risk a possible 2 gain. I dont know why you would want to do it. Weve been lulled into accepting is gone. That, too, concerns me. When it comes back as it did today, its pretty obvious investors arent prepared. You know what they do, they panic. Nobody ever made a dime panicking. I dont want to you panic, thats why you need to be prepared. You can follow along with my Charitable Trust, a highly unusual 20 level. We chose to sell some of our absolute favorite stocks, including prr being prepared means selling or trimming not just the stocks youre indifferent to but even the stocks you like, betting you can buy them back at a lower level. Youve heard my miranda warning. Id like to risk that than when the rates were raised in december. Then got crushed. It was much worse than what happened today. The big difference now and then is this most people knew and eck expected a rate hike back then. This time, far too few people seem to be prepared. Many followers say my views based on nothing, given how weak the datas been of late. But im telling you, the fed is only playing lip servio theyre concerned that our rates are at uncertain lows. The fed stayed on hold once because of the bear market in china, last august. Then they did it once because it was the collapse in oil. There doesnt seem to be anything overseas staying their hand this time. So i think you need toe accept it, act accordingly, and i get are way too sanguine. Trust me when i say that youll hear talk of a fedinduced recession with every piece of weak data going forward. There, youve heard me. Now lets go to the game plan. Why dont we start were an event i think will nail everything home, a speech by dennis lockhart. I expect him to say we need a hike and we need it now. This guys wanted to tighten even when it could have been catastrophic to raise rates. You can only imagine how he feels about it now. It can get worse. Neil kashkari speaks. The last time we heard from neel what happens if he says we need one anyway . Forewarns is forearmed. After the close, united natural foods. I think its too high. I believe it will reflect that in the reports. If you want to bottom fish in that beleaguered universe, at least wait until you hear what they say. The selloff started when the European Central bank chose basically to do nothing, nothing aggressive to stimulate their economy. I think its because things are better over there. But we have german Inflation Numbers coming out tuesday morning, and if these figures are at all stronger, we will have the wind of recession in our faces. Ive been consistent with what ive said in the show. I think when youre walking through a mine field as we are when we get closer and closer to the fed meeting, it pays to know thats what i do. If you ask me whats become among the most problematic sectors, i would say its the retail and restaurant group. Im always looking for ways to take the temperature of the consumer. How could it be that we get earnings from crack are barrel that studded along the highways of the u. S. Its at 147 right now it would ring a little louder. One other important piece of information. Citi. Thats right. Citi group will tell its story at an Analyst Meeting wednesday. If you think the feds going to raise rates, the biggest winners among the fewest, will be the banks. And my Charitable Trust owns shares in citi as a hedge. The regulators now love it. They used to hate it. If the stock goes higher that that could be an important tell about how the markets feeling about the possibilities of not just one hike but maybe two before the year ends. Thursdays a big earnings day of the week. Its oracle day. Its this Gigantic Software company, its buying net sweep. And before you hear why they think it makes sense, you can expect sales reports from workday and salesforce. Com. I think oracle could than help the tech group, especially after the sales force numbers. Remember how i said theres a lot of concern among some fed members about whether inflations kicking up. We have Double Barrel reports. And given the proximity of the fed meeting, these may be the last hope that no action will be taken. Although in the end, i think their minds are made up. Septembers a go, which leads to i think that by then everyone will know what im telling you now and what ive been saying all week, which is that were on the verge of a hike. By this point, there will be almost universal concern that the fed will lower the boom on september 21st. I urge you not to buy anything. We were prepped for that hike and got crushed. History can repeat itself. Heres the bottom line. Please dont blame the messenger. I want you to be prepared ahead thats all im saying. That means taking evasive action because the reward isnt worth the risk. I say wait, wait for another better time to buy. And you want some cash to be ready to take advantage when that time comes. Alex in california. Alex. Caller ba, ba, ba, booyah, cramer. Good to have you on the show, whats going on. Caller i have a stock question. And whos the best of breed . They did Say Communications equipment was strong. The proper read is cisco, that is the one well buy, but finizar is too late. Time to be a little cautious here. With the fed up to bat, we could see some serious fireworks. Exposed to the action. Dont like the market ahead of a rate hike. Has the train left the station in or maybe its time to hop aboard. Im playing conductor. Then worries over retail continue to plague this market, heres one thats the only one thats any good. Ollies bargain market . Ive got a ceo, dont miss twilio. I suggest you stick with cramer. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Tweet cramer, mad tweets. Send jim an email at madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Marco. polo marco. polo marco. polo marco. polo marco. s . . Polo marco. polo scusa . Ma io sono marco polo, ma. Marco. playing marco polo with marco polo . Surprising. Ragazzini, io sono marco polo. S . , sono qui. Whats not surprising . Ahhh. Polo. Marco. polo fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. Polo wi 80 of recurrent ischemic strokes could be prevented. And im doing all i can to help prevent another one. A bayer aspirin regimen is one of those steps in helping prevent another stroke. Be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. Then we wad it up to make it nice and soft. But grandma, we use charmin ultra soft so we dont have to wad to get clean. Charmin ultra soft gets you clean without the wasteful wadding. It has comfort cushions you can see that are softer. And more absorbent, and you can use up to 4 times less. Remember, thats charmin in there. No wasteful wadding we all go. Why not enjoy the go with charmin. Were going to prove just how wet and sticky ry spray is different. Degree dry spray. Degree. It wont let you down. . . when you are suffering from chest congestion but you have got a full day ahead of you, try mucinex 12hour. Only mucinex has a unique bilayer tablet. The white layer releases immediately. Mucinex is absorbed 60 percent faster than store brands. Its time to talk about the improbable rally in the railroads because until todays market wide washout, these were some of at the end of january i told you after being hammered for over a year, enough was enough. The rails were finally worth buying, especially Norfolk Southern and csx, because even with their main cargo, coal, in secular decline, they represent a good value. I really nailed that call, since it turned out to be very close to the bottom for the whole group. Csx and Norfolk Southern are up. Csx, Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific are up 6 , even ksu has gained 3 . So what is behind the tremendous rally in the railroad names . A remarkable reversal since this market got hit 15 months. And more important, can these stocks continue to run . First and foremost, the expectation got so low that at remember the rails are rebounding in the wake of hideous declines and they are still off their highs of 2014. They kept slashing their estimates, all the way down. And by the beginning of the year, the estimates earnings had been cut to the bone allowing the companies to meet or beat the numbers rather than missing them, even though the railroads are still posting weaker than wall street got too negative. Second, what else has been driving these relatively robust earnings per share numbers . All the major rails bought back substantial amounts of their own stock when their share prices were well at lows. And that comes on the heels of heavy repurchases last year. When you shrink the number of shares youre increasing the earnings per share, and this can put a floor. And third, t after january lows, every stock in the group except ksu had in excess of 3. 3 . These payouts were perfectly safe. That was enough to cover dividend earnings twice over. Lot more bullish on the economy than they were in january. And since the railroads represent the backbone of commerce theyve benefitted enormously. When Money Managers believe were in an economic expansion, they buy hand over fist. So what do we do with these stocks now that theyve experienced such an epic run. You need to look at two things. You need to look at two things. These are the key metric. One is the volume of cargo that theyre moving, and the other is the price theyre getting on that volume. Those are the two metrics of rails. At Union Pacific, the declines have accelerated versus last year, the volumes are down 9 yeartodate. The only bright spot here is that the revenue per car, the key metric on pricing was only down 2 versus a 6 decline before. On the other hand, theyre seeing doubledigit declines in revenue per car for automobiles. Whoa. Bad sign. Csx is the same thing. Revenues, declines, accelerating from last year. And the coal volumes are down 32 for the year. Just like Union Pacific, pricings getting a bit less bad. Csx down 3 versus 9 the previous quarter. See the pattern . The auto business is holding up. Not too great, but okay. 2016, better than 2015. But volumes are getting worse for Norfolk Southern, worse than the 2. 6 decline in 2015. Norfolk southerns revenue per car dropped just by 3 . Much better than 7 last year. The trajectorys down. As for kansas city, their volumes are down by about the same. Notice all these numbers are bad. However, kansas city southerns automobile business isnt just bad, its been crushed. Revenue per car down 16 . Meaning theyre making a lot less from their automobile cargos. So business is still pretty weak. Although the recent expansion in the panama canal should start to coal from china. Theyre buying a lot from us. One of the reasons why the baltic freights when the economy starts to improve, they are going to make a killing, but if you believe we could be headed toward a slow down, that means pain will continue. The yields are less attractive, and the fed could be tightening in the very near future. So listen up. Let me give you the bottom line. The railroads have roared higher this year, because the expectations got too low, and the stocks became too cheap. And the dividend yields too big. However, listen. I dont think this rally is sustainable, given the they are far from strong. The stocks are no longer cheap. The dividends are a lot less impressive. I say it is here right here rate now to ring the register on all the rails after a magnificent run. We can revisit them at lower prices. Ron in new jersey. Caller hey, jim, how are you. I am good, how about you . Caller very good. Basically what i was calling about was you had mentioned, recommended, i guess, alcoa. Caller a number of times, and now with this reverse split, i was a little concerned in terms of the fact that that usually means bad feelings. Youre absolutely right. That is the usual meaning. My Charitable Trust which you can follow, youve got to read what were saying about this. That reverse split is to try to keep both companies in the s p, because the s p doesnt like stocks that are below five. It is chimerical. Proprietary, we think it is worth almost the whole price of the company. I think thats the way it is. Its a bad market. Much more mad money ahead. In a world of brick and mortar thats seen their outlook threatened, how does Ollies Bargain market fare. And are investinvestors sti rack, ill tell you what is to happen this sector to see a turn around. I suggest you stick with cramer. Ugh, this pimples gonna last forever. Oh come on. Clearasil ultra works fast to begin visibly clearing up skin in as little as 12 hours. And acne wont last forever. Stephen Stephen Stephen stephen see what im sayin acne wont last. But for now, lets be clear. Clearasil works fast. This back to school, get clearer skin for free. Limited time offer in stores now. To feel this special. You need to eat this special. . . . I love it . Start your day with crunchy wholegrain flakes. And real strawberries. Eat special. Feel special. I absolutely love my new york apartment, but the rent is outrageous. Good thing geico offers affordable renters insurance. With great coverage it protects my personal belongings [doorbell] uh, excuse me. Delivery. Hey. Lo mein, szechwan chicken, chopsticks, soy sauce and you got some fortune cookies. Have a good one. Ah, these small new york apartments. Protect your belongings. Let geico help you at a time when the Dollar Stores are languishing in the doghouse after some truly hideous numbers, what are we supposed to make of a discount retailer thats shooting the lights out . Im talking about Ollies Discount outlet holdings, it sells brand name goods, including everything from household goods, power tools, food at cut rate prices. They report add tremendous quarter. Astounding 48 yeartodate. Thats an outstanding run. I think the companys still got a lot going for it. Consumers may not be trading down to the Dollar Stores, but they adore this offprice model. And selling at a 70 discount to what youd pay at a department store, thats right, i said 70 equity backer, and i wanted to wait for a pull back from their selling before you did any buying. Since then, the equity overhang has been taken care of, so we can now focus on whats working here, and the answer is everything. Ollies has a terrific business model. Not only do they have offpriced merchandise bought from other retailers, it only costs about 1 million for them to set up an any location. They can generate 3. 7 million per year. You know from get rich carefully how much i look for those situations. They have about 200 stores, east and the Company Started moving into a gigantic state like florida this year. Look where theyre located. Its like when Dollar General hadnt been to california yet. When they say they think they can expand, im inclined to believe them. And theyve got a great growth track record. From 2010 to 2015, they added 120 new net stores and entered even without investing in any distribution centers, imagine if they can get to at least 400 stores . That makes them the textbook example of the story that wall street adores. Theyve already got a successful concept. The growth here could be fabulous. And thats why the stocks are on fire. Now the last time i told you about ollies, there was one ccmp, capital advisers, still owned 59 of the company. Now i never like to see that level of private equity ownership, because it means you can get absolutely slammed by a tsunami of selling as these guys decide to take profits, which is really their business, by the way. Sure enough, ollies has gotten hit with a wave of private equity sales. On june 6, ollies did more than a 12 million secondary. Day. Two days a the sweep. They did another block sale. Like clockwork, the stock sank another 3. 2 . The private Equity Investors from ccmp, theyve now cleared out. That last block sale represented longer have to worry about getting killed. Knifed in the back by your fellow shareholders if you own the stock. Beyond that, i find ollies to be encouraging. I invited the ceo to be on the show, hes so terrific. The ceo believes its got more room to run. More important, without the private equity overhang we can focus on how well this companys well indeed. Ollies delivered off 18 basis. Steady 3. 5 samestore sale growth. Even better, ollies raised its revenue forecast. And only a handful of retailers have been able to do that. Housewares and pets. And the quarter improved with each month better than the last, oh, boy, this was some call. What else. Ollies still plans on opening 28 to 32 new stores. Put it all together, and its no wonder it jumped. But after the big block sale earlier this week, ollies is trading back to where it was before reporting. Getting that whole quarter for free. As far as im concerned, it means you can start buying this stock right into the selloff i expect between here and the fed meeting. That said, ollies isnt cheap, trading over 24 times next years estimates, but ollies has a heck of a lot more growth most of those have saturated the country. I told you that ollies has barely touched the company. I have been a fan for months. Weve been waiting for that equity sponsor to finish selling, and as of tuesday, the pesky equity guys are out. The latest block sale has pushed if this is the best retailer i can find, that doesnt say much about retail right now, but i think it does Say Something about ollies, its the one thats still working in a difficult retail environment, specifically, and through the entire market in general. Now there is much more mad money ahead. From uber to netflix, i have a company thats powering things every day. Ill have an interview with the ceo of twilio. Tree, what do they have to do to turn it around . 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We get hit with a big marketwide selloff like we had today sometimes its an opportunity to start looking at weakness that has nothing to do with the companies themselves. Take twilio, its aiming to do for communications what Amazon Web Services did for storage. They make it incredibly easy to manage communication processes via the cloud. They want you to see twilio as your onestop shop for Text Messages and even video. For example, when uber sends you that text message letting you thats them thats twilio. Whats happening is twilio verifying your phone number to make sure your actions are coming from you. Ever since it became public its soaring 92 . I still like it very much. Now when twilio reported its announced new capabilities who help them win new i spoke with the ceo of twilio. I am delighted to have mr. Lawson on mad money. Thank you so much. Have a seat. Thank you. I look at your conference call, which is one of the most transparent of all that ive ever seen and i love that. Our mission is to fuel the thats right. Thats our goal. And its a long road to get there, and that road is going to be an interesting bunch but thats our mission. We see ourselves and the world overall at the earliest days of a transition of our communications from a legacybased hardware in copper wires, into a future which is software. As such, the Software Developers of the world are going to build that future. And were here to power their ideas, their dreams, all the building, but thats a tall order. This is your first time on tv. Lets talk about nordstrom. Its a fabulous website. Why are they different . And you power it. Nordstrom is this amazing use case. They want their personal shoppers to be able to text with their customers. They didnt want to say hey, every salesperson use your phone and text with customers because its a lot of privacy and things like that. So they created an app. Twilio phone number. And they can use that app and it keeps all the customers information private. They dont get the phone number. And it keeps the personal shopper private. And they can integrate it with crm systems so all that activity is tracked and they can recommend you great products that youd be likely to buy. Because its all integrated. An edge because of you. Every Company Wants to compete. And part of how you build Great Software is having Building Blocks and having these composable services, whether they are compute and storage like amazon or storage like twilio, these are the fundamental Building Blocks that we use every day. You have a thing called usagebased revenue model. I was shocked to see, when your customers do well, you do well. Explain that to people. Its so exciting. This is a unique part of our business model. We charge a very small amount of money. Im talking about a penny or fraction of a penny, right . But the thing is those fractions build up. It starts off very small. You need low barriers. If you need to spend a million bucks right up front, you get very few. It makes it costeffective for a company to say we have a new idea. Lets build it in a very quick way, get it out there. If customers love it, great, if it doesnt work, we can shut that experiment down, because we didnt spend a lot of money building it. It also aligns our success with our customers success. This isnt the old Enterprise Software model. You cut me 10 million check and you never implement the software or hardware. That was the way. This is better for our customers. We have to focus on customers to be successful ourselves. I think the magical thing about uber is how great the Customer Experience is. We take for granted that, you know, when you call the driver inside that app, the drive just answers the phone and says hey, jim, where are you . You say im on the corner, ill be right there. But think about what that would have been ten, 15 years ago. I call a 1800 number, tell us your moms dogs baby name to authenticate yourself. Theyve gotten rid of all that. Because of your company. And because you can integrate the context of what youre trying to get done. It knows where youre trying to go. And we see that as a powerful future of what softwares going to do to make our communications more relevant in the fullness of and also netflix, facebook of people are worried about concentration. You seem to have everybody. No one else seems to be doing what youre doing. We did, you know, i think my perspective as a software developer, were a company by developers for developers, by meant that we had a unique perspective on communications. If you think about it, for 100 years, the industry has been digging ditches and launching satellites. Theyre good at those things, but those are the opposite of software, which is listening to your customer, adapting the road map constantly. We ship updates to our Production Systems over 30 times a day. Wow. Thats the agility, the pace at which software moves as opposed to the legacy approach. One last thing, one, one, involved with 111. Can you explain that . What do they do just for the companies. The 1 pledge is an important part of our company. Weve committed 1 of our preipo revenue to sustainably funded twilio. Org to improve society. Theres so many out there that nonprofits were finding these great ways to use communications to improve the world. Crisis text line. An Amazing Organization that has an smsbased hotline for people who are experiencing emotional stress, suicide prevention, and you can text 741741 and its staffed 24 7 with volunteers, and were excited to partner with them to help them see their mission through to help people in need and using our technology. That is very important for all of us. Thats jeff lawson, founder, chairman and ceo of twilio. The markets going down, nothing to do with twilio. Maybe this is the way you get in. Back after the break. . . when you are suffering from chest congestion but you have got a full day ahead of you, try mucinex 12hour. The white layer releases immediately. Mucinex is absorbed 60 percent faster than store brands. While the blue extended release layer lasts a full 12 hours. Relieve chest congestion with mucinex, and enjoy living well. . . Almonds, and raspberries. Devour something different. Special k nourish. I love my shop, but my back pain was making it hard to sleep and open up on time. Then i found aleve pm. The only one to combine a sleep aid plus the 12 hour pain relieving strength of aleve. Now im back. It is time time for the lightning round. And then the lightning round is time for the lightning round. Starting with carl in alaska. Caller booyah from our largest state in the union. You bet, man. Whats shakin. Caller jim, ive been watching you for 25 years. When you started. Thank you. Caller i told them you can call me anytime up here in alaska. Anyway, jim, im calling about semi conductors. I like the ratio. A lot of semis are coming down. Lets have the dollar down side first. Margie in washington. Caller hi, jim. How are you . Caller fine. Black rock. Its a really, really good company. Had a real big spike this week. I think its got room to decline before you have to pull the trigger. Kathryn in ohio, kathryn. Caller mr. Cramer. Yes. Investing. Cabellas. I dont really care for retail. I like to shop there, retails not a good place to be right now. Stephen in texas. Caller yes, sir, thank you. You had a segment about charts, and you said when you see this distinctive head and shoulders, not to ignore that. Im staying away from the steel stocks. They had a big spike now theyre coming down. Thats a little dicey for me. Lets go to mike in florida. Mike. Caller jimbo, acacia. This is a red hot stock. You let the whole market take it down to a level where it might have been before it reported tom in pennsylvania. Caller hi, jim, first time caller from elwood city, pennsylvania. I wanted to begin by thanking you for your reading list in World War Ii Magazine last year. Geez, you read that. Thank you so much for saying that. That was a fun piece for me to write. Thats my true passion. Caller my stock is dynavax. That is the conclusion of the lightning round. The lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. When they come back down for the high valuations i would steer clear. Clean up in aisle six. Hey, good job taking mark sanchez in your fantasy draft. Not true, not true next caller its all a big battle ground. Get me . Oh, come on. Children. No, is it bad . This is how you dont get good guests on anymore. Well, theres a week that was. His motorcycle insurance to geico. Theres no shame in saving money. Ride on, ride proud. Geico motorcycle, great rates for great rides. You can finally break up with bleach. Lysol with hydrogen peroxide. For a tough clean with zero percent bleach. I used to blame the weather for my frizz. Practically frizz free. Because strong is beautiful. Get Even Stronger results with pantene expert, our most intensely concentrated prov formula. This market cannot have a solid rally as long as we keep losing retail, and were losing retail big time. The sudden decline is untenable. And unless you believe the whole sectors resting before its next should be concerned too. Let me break it down. First the retailers have found themselves with headwinds that are unbeatable. The fastest retail i travel is ulta. When youre trading at 35 times the earnings, you need to blow away the numbers, trounce them. It didnt happen. The second and third strongest momentum names, dollar tree and collapsed. They missed by miles and Dollar General had to cut its guidance because of competition. It is just disastrous. Then theres the players like l brands, footlocker and dicks. I still like them, but im wary, because they can be pulled down we thought that the safest sector was housingrelated. But the stocks of home depot and lowes have been crushed, in part because of hd supply spun out of home depot, but risk from tractor supply. Nevertheless, no one cares for now. How about discounters and closeouts. We just bought some tjx. Its a solid play going into the holidays and then into the disposal merchandise from 100 macys being shut down. Maybe some untold sears stores. Tjx home goods is still strong. Ross stores is still good, but tj can pull down the stock of its competitor pretty easily. Big boxes and target, it seems been rocked by sellers. Both companies have been hurt by food deflation. You want nasty . Check back into those dont stores. Macys is wallowing, nordstroms seems to have lost momentum. Its now just going down. Which leaves two that are doing well. Walmart and amazon. The problem is that both are zero sum. Walmarts delivering, theyve cut prices, but Doug Mcmillen is merchandising and less work turnover. Amazon, total zero sum. When they win, everybody else loses. Not as important as health care or finance, punches above its weight. The stocks are so visible, the numbers so disturbing, price action so horrendous, i would be kidding if i said i wasnt concerned. All i say is this group needs to we heard some positives about back to school season. All i can think of is king midas in reverse. Thats not the directions you want if you believe this market can go higher without having a pronounced decline like we saw today. More selling is ahead for this group. Man, my feet same time tomorrow, fellas . Dr. Scholls massaging gel work insoles absorb a hard day on your feet for comfort that keeps you feeling more energized. Dudes got skills. Each name a life, etched in bronze. A lot of them were firefighters. Lees brothers. Heres a squad, 288. The first name starts here and goes that way. So when you look that way you have to go until you see the next company, and that will tell you how many people died from squad 288. And i can go like this. On my sons name. Because thats my son. My son came here with his company and hazmat. Thats 19 men from one firehouse. None of those men went home. Jonathan, 29 years old, married with two little boys. Thats one of the more poignant moments from a documentary i helped work on. Ground zero free tomorrow versus fear. And it reairs on the 15th anniversary of 9 11. I invite you to watch it. But the rebuilding has taken a lot of work by thousands of dedicated men and women, and its an extraordinary tale of resilience, recovery and respect. I had a chance to meet some of the people involved, and i feel honored to let them tell their stories. Bull market somewhere, and i promise to find it right here for you on mad money, im jim cramer, and i will see you monday. [music playing] ashley voiceover on our show, we love bringing you the hits. [grunting] ashley voiceover narrator so get ready to throw down. Yeah, all right. He was pretty good. Ashley voiceover because its an all out balls to the wall battle royale. Tonight on 1st look. Ashley voiceover these days life is full of battles, competitions, and war zones. And if you want to survive in this world, you need to get tough. Now, ive always considered myself more of a lover than a fighter, but today this lady is looking to learn how to throw a punch. And if the people who train at kmi new york