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Out of one . Mm. Hello, and welcome to to the point. Its a pleasure to introduce our guests. Christian handled is Senior Expert for europe, neighbourhood, and the middle east at the battles mun foundation. And his thought is out, one is weekend, but the ukraine crisis and the huge number of refugees it has taken in means that turkey remains a key player. And its a pleasure to welcome berlin to my hes an independent correspondent for turkish and german media, including dutch avella, mostly based in assemble. And he says, other one will do anything to stay in power, exploiting, domestic and international crises. But now hes losing his such because of the economic situation, and its great to have with us is seen them, ada. She is an expert on middle east and turkey, working with the berlin based think tank shift on this and shaft and politic or s w p. Her opinion, its hard to say this might play out, but real change is looking increasingly likely. Dont tell us a little bit from your experience. Also in. 6 istanbul and environments what youre seeing right now in turkey. How is this economic crisis affecting peoples daily lives . Is a lot like when you go out and you stumble traffic, you see less cars because because of the gas prices, people are less using their cars. And especially when we have the energy costs are getting higher and higher are going came to power in 2002 because often they call them christ to survive. The love in the middle class, the know hes losing his support from the classes. So its getting hard for him, know this because of the economy. Sit on the scene in stumbles mayor who is a contender to succeed ero . Well, everyone in next years elections. He says that the economic crisis is now a political crisis. Now i know in your Opening Statement, you say its hard to predict, but you talk about the possibility of real change. What would that look like . Whats the system scenario that would take turkey . There . A, thats a good question, but thats also a difficult question. I guess one of the scenarios would be the elections that i plan to take place in 2023, both the president ial elections and the parliamentary elections. And given that the a vote shares of both the a k p, the ruling government and its junior partner alternation was marked as villas, Approval Ratings of for president are gone. Theyve been in steep decline. Its in september of 2021. Together with the economy. Crises, but also the seems to be kind of like a v coming in it incoherency in the, in the, in the, in the regime. I think contribute to or are all signs that the change might be likely on a dig, a little bit deeper on that income here and see christian, your Opening Statement said that our to one is weekend. This is a president who once looked nearly invincible, who really had the vast majority of the turkish people behind him. Is he so weakened that in fact he really might are. 1 far from power to part of his political success with the, with most of the electrodes that is flourishing economy. But if there is no flourishing economy as berlin to explain to us than he is under pressure. And his and, and the consequences are also that, that this has a consequence to his Foreign Policy. Yeah, hes, hes changing alliances. Yeah, he is approaching is, well, the uni, United Arab Emirates and egypt with whom he was at odds for years in order to take part in the, in the, in the Gas Exploration in the eastern mediterranean. And secondly, its in the strong or wish of the u. S, administration and the europeans that, that turkey stays in line with nato in the confronting conflict with russia, especially to help the west in afghanistan and ukraine. So were going to talk a little bit later about whether that Foreign Policy actually can save him. But lets dig deeper 1st of all and the roots of an economic crisis that has taken a promising emerging economy to the verge of collapse. Soaring prices for everyday necessities are shaking the faith of even outer ones. Staunchest fans, vegetables milk bread prices are exploding in turkey. The corona pandemic and Rising Energy cost as in other areas of the world are not the only factors. The lira continues to plummet, inflation is rising sharply. Asli maam, now this woman says she want for 2 hours to find affordable bread. She thinks inflation is at a 100 percent. Understand that you die. The president retro beardon wants to implement controversial measures again and again. He urges the central bank to keep the Interest Rates low. The Interest Rate hikes are considered an effective means of combating inflation air to one recently dismissed the head of the statistics authority, alleging he misrepresented the extent of the crisis. Meanwhile, here to one continues to make promises chemistry. We are now determined, he says, to break the neck of inflation or which we have reduced to 6 percent before and lower back to Single Digits as soon as possible. Carol, can this crisis course they are to want his office to let some observers say that everyones enthusiasm for slashing Interest Rates, actually derived from his muslim faith. He is known to be to be a very religious and of course islam does have a prohibition on the taking of interest. But what he really risk economic collapse for the sake of religion. Well i dont think that i had one is acting or behaving you by the rules of that religion. I dont i they, they name i dont they label. I dont isnt. Hes that missed i dont, is not an islamist or dawn is an autocratic leader who wants to stay in poverty for a long time. So he, he uses everything one day he wakes up and he said, im keeping interest because of isabel and next day he says, im doing good to to, to he learn the took chicago to be. So thats not, there is always that the reason thats not the rules of islam to use them in the, according to what he wants to do is having is small interest. Please try to grow the economy with cheap money to cheap laws, which a credit thats, thats the only way he knows. But with his a local and international politics, its much easier to have new lessons in to check on them. And we can improve our economy with the tools its all about is its his, thats his way. Its the impulse as i spoke with. So this sent him everyone obviously is breaking with economic orthodoxy by continually lowering Interest Rates. But could there be method in this madness . Might he, in fact, get an economic turn around as we just said, bill and says he claims to have a strategy in maybe a tactic claims to him. And maybe he has an i personally thing that it has a lot to do with the fact that he needs to navigate a very limited pace among different economy. And that is mainly between the kind of a stumble, business costs and the Business Class that have been flourishing in the last 25 to 30 years in turkey. Be it, for instance, the muslim business menzs or she ation or a couple of other associations that have been that theyve been really flourishing on the current. The old rule of the current government and bomb claim that these groups have been actually putting on the government for us to keep Interest Rates low. So i think by choosing that, choosing to do that, hes an ebay, appealing to the demands coming from these groups. But one thing indication that it is getting really difficult menu where these competing demands coming from different business idiots is how quickly he has been shifting economy policies. Because if you remember that late 2021 may actually have hurt turkey shifting to into kind of like sort of orthodox economy policies. 80 form package was announced and so on. On the year after it was kind of like 180. 00 degrees turn. So i think thats a sign that actually it, that economy crises going back to your previous question, that economy crisis is also a political crisis because like menu limits and kind of mitigating that space becoming is becoming really difficult, very quick follow up questions. When you talk about economic leads and their interests, are you suggesting theres also a corruption element to this Economic Policy . Of course, of course, because, i mean obviously Popular Support is important. But i think ron should really keep in mind that this government has created its own idiots in the last 2 decades to remain in power. Not only to Popular Support is enough, but you really need to kind of continue maintaining the support of the needs as well. So i think den, thus that is built on crony capitalism, corruption, and san yes. The Christian Edwin himself claims that exports are surging and a cheaper currency could in theory, promote both exports and tourism, watching turkish relations or with other countries. Do you think thats going to happen . He is really his form in his economy policy. It which tina was describing so much depending on the continuous and high inflow of euros and dollars into the turkish economy. Yeah, because imports are much, much higher than exports. So he is, he has really ask also turkish communities in europe to, to put their euros and into the took a central bank. And the low Interest Rates are so much important building on whats in them said because the construction industry, the elite of businessmen who are dominating the construction industry. This is very close with ad one. And they need low Interest Rates. And, and, and, and so this is what, what, what this whiskey Economic Policy was, it was talking around and, and, and what also says that he is depending on, on, on relations with other countries, from whom he profit that they bring their dollars into. The took central bank, for example, the rich countries and the gulf cutter since years has been investing money into to, into turkey in order to keep it also politically on the, on the line in the, in the middle east policy. And now he has been asking the con, the competitor of cut out the United Arab Emirates, to invest in turkey. And now and now the emeralds are going to invest in turkey. In the united states, they are criticizing rightly like the europeans, this the, the non status of rule of law. The monster there that the, the backlash on democracy and rule of law. But at the same time, they do not want to have an economic collapse of, of turkey to keep them to keep them strongly. Because its q g strategic position in the car, crisis is we are going to come back to the domestic and to foreign domestic and Foreign Direct Investment in turkey. But let me just briefly ask you this, this volatile Economic Policy one thing one day. Another thing, the next is that really going to attract the kind of investment that turkey needs its, its risky because i dont think that that it, that the majority of the turkish or of trips were living in europe are giving their euros to a risky Economic Policy in turkey for them as well. Rule of law is important. Yeah. And, and we have, we have belinda. We have such a strong economic in the dependency and economic interaction between europe and turkey. So that, that the rule of rule of law based economy is getting more and more important. So europe is really not really forced, you know, to, to do something that, that rule of law is going back into economic relations with turkey in our trade relations. Meanwhile, and it doesnt exactly look like rule of law is about to be strengthened to any time soon. Everyone has been dismissing, not only leading central bank officials, but also judges other academic, the directors of universities. And in fact, people have express criticism of him online or are so finding themselves cert with arrest warrants. Do you see this situation now essentially turning into an even more autocratic regime Going Forward . It will, i mean, we just have one year to the election. So the official date of the election. So in that last year, especially while we are having an economy christ, he will use his power much more harshly. And im sure that, you know, its always his tool to, to, to increase the, the, the position in the country. He will do that. He will put much more pressure on media. Hell put what or pregnancy will say it because he doesnt want to leave the office in next year because he knows that it losing the office is not will not just be the losing go up is he will lose much more things. He knows that that corruption that see them mentioned before is a huge problem for him. And you mentioned a couple of business men or he having a lot of money. They want a lot of money to keep who were supporting are doing. He gave them billions of dollars, billions of euros why to support his political issues, like hes giving the contracts for business spent. And then he asked the businessman, go and buy a media for me and support me. So he, he gave, i would text to that people so he knows that if he loses the elections, he will have to pay for that. So thats why at that here, he will be much more harsher. He booklet and youre a new, a position on the street on social media is seen him amongst the people who have been arrested is a leading arms dealer who actually had acted as a whistleblower to call attention to the, to the kind of cronyism that you described a moment ago will, will stories like that has any impact on domestic Political Support for our to one or at this point, are people simply worrying about, you know, whether they can buy bread as we saw in the report. So of course, hard to tell, reach factors has the effect on the declining support that i mentioned earlier, but it is a fact that a, the last 6 months for sure that that his business, he declined in the poles of the both the voting shares was also the popularity today, things of the president for the president , and they my personal opinion, is that a couple of factors on it play together . Small tennis, the audit play . I think one needs to think of the turkish pres masha system, but even before the transition into the pres National System, probably since 2013 the system is something that its out from been. And that a couple of factors for that 1st and foremost is of course, institutional and collapse, the generation. And pres, National System of course, plays a huge role in it. But at the same time, everyone focuses rightfully so on personalization of power and consolidation of poverty in the hands of the president. But there is a process that actually takes place together with that. And that has to do with the fragmentation of power a within the ruling government today. And that has different dimensions. One is what i mentioned earlier that these different elite groups demanding Different Things from the, from the, from the ruling government. And that is because that is becoming really difficult to address these competing demands. Well that the same time you also see actually the, the ruling a k p and its junior partner all traditionalist and h, b in competition with one another. So they stick to one another, but at the same time, theyre also not that much in good terms with one another. So that i think influences the ways in which what i was mentioning earlier, just in each coherency. So we are not really talking about the very coherent ruling elite and all of these in the i, together with the economy crises, the weakening economy, crises, i think it contributes to the ways in which is on a cost, you know, these perceive, and this governance bedrock which in my opinion has been quite on president at even dot okay. Heads in its history, come in instead likes, i think this one is quite an unprecedented funds and thats all of those contribute to the declining support. Meanwhile, doland, were actually seeing everyone attacking elite attacking journalists, attacking intellectuals, attacking various public figures, even including a beloved pop singer who supposedly blasphemous li sang about adam and eve 5 years ago. Is that having an, an impact on Public Opinion . Well, yes, and no. You mention that we just talk about if i dont use them or not, i dont fight with that single. Is that about islam adam and eve, he always needs an enemy he to, to, to you to increase the position he should attack someone. Thats sometimes germany that he calls that to me again as another regime if he has a problem with the burden or next that if he has a problem with us, it using them being fish as, as that, thats what he always need someone to affect, to show his people that you see the stronger, so thats only the reason that was the last person who was the tech was actually the singer and he was that again. So, but just one week later he understood that he made a mistake because he every time. So when you give the decision, he makes a pull for that decision and he so that attacking says an actual wasnt a good decision. And next week he said, just a minute says not to wasnt my target. I just said that people shouldnt insult the religious issues that are so when, when he makes mistakes, he tries to fix it, but it didnt work. People understood that is using it. So all of you have described a president who is increasingly isolated or to win appears to have backed himself into a corner abroad, as well as at home. Having snubbed former allies, he is now looking around for new friends as we heard, who can offer not only diplomatic, but potentially awesome material support. November 2021. Crown prince shake muhammad been side of our dobby visits ankara. He pledges investments worth 10000000000. 00 for a long time turkeys relationship with the United Arab Emirates was characterized by hostility. President erewhon had claimed the economic power else helped fund the attempted coup against him in 2016. That all now appears to have been forgotten. The turkish leaders also hoping for a new era in the tense relationship with israel in february he plans to receive is really present. Its our hats on the gas pipeline through the mediterranean, planned by israel, cyprus in greece, is likely to be a topic mister arrow on want to say in the project. He also aims to establish new contacts with saudi arabia. Relations had been at a low point since 2018 when saudi dissident jamal kashodi was murdered inside the saudi consulate in istanbul. Aired one immediately blamed the leadership and rehab for some time now. However, he has remained silent on the matter. And he is now offer to mediate in the Russia Ukraine conflict can air to on the turkey, out of isolation. And let me put that question straight away. I to a question as, as mentioned to you said in your Opening Statement that turkey remains a key player. Geopolitically. Can anyone use that to bring himself and turkey out of isolation after having snub some very important hours . Yes he is. He is, or he is in his room president ial will always able to, to re position himself back to say, to show, due to, to anger, to the western interests. But at the same time, to, to show the west, you know, you need me and i am, i was stay a member of nato. A. He has, he has been very strongly expressing his support for crane and to show, you know, i am part of nato. You know, you can rely on me and at the same time, and he has, he has joint interest with ukraine because ukraine and turkey together are facing russian economy in the, in the black sea region. Yeah. So there is there a joint joint interests between ukraine and took in that direction and, and, and basically an ad one has, has 3 basic interests which are dominating is Foreign Policy. The one is what we spoken about that is the economic issue. But secondly, to hinder any possibilities that there is, could autonomy or could statehood anywhere in turkey or in syria or in iraq. And thirdly, he wants to have a stay and a strong stake in cyprus, in the eastern mediterranean. And here it seems that he has gaining more influence. Now he has been ice isolated by israel, greece, egypt, and them are what weve seen in the, in the film. But now with pret, with, with pressure from, from the u. S. Are those countries include turkey now into their so called eastern mediterranean, a gas form and to it . And so it is, it is you have things of imprint of more predictable and pretty unpredictable actions of one for some. Suddenly he uses his drones and merchant reese in the caucasus, that is against western interest. When you support it as a by john or he is disturbing situations in libya when youre sending a merchant marines and drones to the western part of, of, of libya. And thirdly, with, with syria, you know, its, its, its a very risky policy there, you know, and, and to, and it was degree. Does the west does nato, does europe need for everyone to stay in power simply because he keeps turkey stable. You know that old, that old quote. It is often said about us president who referred to a certain a latin american dictator as he may be. And then he has to swear bird, but hes our own. No, no, melinda, i dont know midnight. I think europe and the u. S. Are looking beyond the era of l one. They look into turkey, turkey, and its geo strategic and geo economic position. And they are in principle, hoping that this, this era will, will end as soon as possible with not too much frictions, you know, trying to deal with his attitude of, of Foreign Policy as long its possible and hoping that there is a democratic transition as piece full within the country as possible, didnt geo political muscle flexing actually used to win support for everyone at home . Has that changed . Well, its still routes. I mean he can use them in social issues, some social conflicts to show his his, his muscles in the interior politics. But when you have a financial crisis, and when youre also put to start, not still supporting you as powerful as before, it doesnt for people. I mean, if you say that, i mean libya and im fighting against that and that, i mean, im working with russia buying that muslim yourselves from russia. You can show these people, but when people go home and they cant find bread in the refrigerator, thats huge problem. Like its not just about the politics. He used to do some, some muslim stuff from islamic stuff like opening how just fulfill. Turning it into a most he throat for a couple of months, but after a couple of months, people started to suffer again and again because when they come across. So it just worked for a couple of times. But then it doesnt for the official issues or to the islamic stuff, they dont work to seen him. Weve described a really bad economic crisis. Youve described increasing authoritarianism at the same time. Our title asked one man rule, can turkey survive our to one . What shape will turkey be in a year from now . I would like to rephrase the question and its meant to ask whether you can, if i can survive turkey and your answer about thats to be seen. But i think its getting more and more likely that its still and that actually i just want to go back to what you said and in your chart, if you know one sentence, okay, for sure its that the thing is, i mean because of a lot of different factors given the history of the democracy in turkey, in terms of electoral elections and so on. And also a talk is increasing dependence on the best. I think its just highly like the back talk. You know, so my go on up, youll come up to verse is another question. Thank you. Thanks to all of you for being with us. 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Is 77 percent now every weekend on d w one of mankinds oldest ambitions could be within reach or what is it really is possible to reverse aging researchers and scientists all over the world for in a race against time our peers and drive with one daring goal to help smart nature more life starts february 16th on d, w. With the news line from the china side with russia and opposing nights or expansion. Im a person travel to beijing for talks registration. Paying a both odds with the west the to lead the signal closer ties in the future. Also on the program, European Union joins germany condemning russias decision to ban deutsche a valid. I d. W is moscow. Bureau is false to close and retaliation from russia

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