Undertook, the really big one is why did he do it. Youd think that that would be the act of a desperate man. And hes got a lot of reasons to be desperate. Rose we continue this evening with the further consideration of congress and the political implications for 2014 with Maggie Haberman, Chris Cillizza and jonathan martin. Look, i was struck by the fact that geo politicalship in the house pointedly noted this was going to be a conscious vote. Thats a euphemism were not going to put any skin in the game here and were not going to actually deliver votes. So yes theres this symbolic power of the two top leaders, boehner in the house supporting the measure. But if theyre not going to aggressively try to secure the votes, that doesnt mean that much. Especially given, as chris said, the fact that even when they do try to go after votes and deliver votes, they arent always successful. Rose all about syria and politics when we continue. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. Rose we begin this evening with syria. President obama continues to push for congressional authorization for u. S. Military action. The administration firmly believes the assad regime is responsible for the august 21st chemicals weapons attack that killed 1400 people. Speaker john boehner and nancy pelosi has spoken in favor of the plan. Heres what president obama said after meeting today with members of congress. The key point i want to emphasize to the American People, the military plan that has been developed by its own chiefs and that i believe is appropriate is proportional, it is limited, it does not involve boots on the ground. This is not iraq and this is not afghanistan. This is a limited proportional step that will send a clear message not only to the assad regime but also to other countries that may be interested in testing some of these international norms, that there are consequences. Rose the attorneys Relation Committee heard testimony today from secretary of state john kerry, chuck hagel and martin dempsey. We now have learned that the hair and blood samples from First Responders in east damascus has tested positive for signatures of sarin. So my colleagues, we know what happened. For all the lawyers, for all the former prosecutors, for all those who have sat on a jury, i can tell you that we know these things beyond a reasonable doubt that is the standard by which we send people to jail for the rest of their lives. Some have tried to suggest that the debate were having today is about president obamas red line. I could not more forcefully state that is just plain and simply wrong. This debate is about the worlds red line. Its about humanitys red line. And its a red line that anyone with a conscious ought to draw. Rose joining me from washington david sanger from the New York Times, Dexter Filkins of the new yorker magazine, im pleased to have both of them here as we take a look at what happened today in washington as the secretary of defense, secretary of state and chairman of the joints chiefs testified before the foreign senate committee. I david begin with you. Tell me what came out of that hearing and the q a that took place after the testimony that you think influences or might influence the debate. Well charlie, youve heard secretary kerry give a much more forceful reiteration of his reasons for believing that congress had to go give the president the authorization to use force. And his argument came down to this, that if congress didnt do it, that at some point soon everybody would be back in the same room seeking an authorization for force on something much larger. He envoked the spector of the iranians looking very closely at whether or not the United States was good to its worth that it would enforce a ban on the use or development of weapons of mass destruction. He made the same argument about the North Koreans. He ran into i think considerable skepticism but the skepticism didnt have to do with the morality or legality of the argument that the u. S. Should go in although i think we could make some arguments particularly on the legal front. But rather simply on the question of whether or not the United States wanted to go in in the absence of any allies, the arab league the british going along with them. On this issue i think the administration is having a very difficult time, and frankly, if they had more allies going with them, they probably wouldnt have gone back to congress for the political cover here to begin with. Rose dexter. Well, i mean i think, i think the vote will be close but i think hell get, i personally think hell get the authorization to do it. Rose define determining by a little bit how that authorizization is defined. Well, i think the problem here is if he didnt have it, i mean as david was saying, if you, what if, say, he wants a series of strikes. And then assad decided to use chemical weapons again. What do you do then. So i mean this could go on for a while, presumably. Rose thats part of the fear of the American People that it becomes somehow a deepening hole that draws the United States in. Its definitely a quagmire and i think you used that word. Its a quagmire with syria but the iranians are going all in to help this regime, had fallen next door, i think theres a legitimate fear that hezbollah could mount, they have people all over the world. That we could get dragged into something much better without a resolution. Rose how big a risk david if we dont do something they say paper tiger, paper tiger. I think that risk is 100 that someone will say that. The question is what, how big is the alliance thats left. One moment you heard secretary kerry say that if there was not an authorizization, then the u. S. Would have fewer allies or at least fewer allies that believed in them. And certainly the israelis have been making the argument not so subtly that should the u. S. Not go in, the iranians would view it as an opportunity to step up on their Nuclear Weapons development program. That the North Koreans would see it as a sign they could do whatever they wanted to do. And thats always a risk when you draw a line in the sand and youre not willingx2 . J to back t up. But i think that the issue that dexter was getting at was one that came up in some fairly interesting ways and of course with a hearing. Because a lot of the members of congress wanted an assurance that there would never be boots on the ground. And the legislation that was proposed by the whitehouse does not have a ban on boots on the ground. The president has said he wouldnt do it. Secretary kerry opened up an interesting loophole. He said supposing for a moment we saw some weapons transfers that were about to take place to hezbollah for example. You might want to have the flexibility to go in and stop that transfer. That was code word for he wanted the ability to send in special forces if they needed to seize a chemical weapons store at some moment. Rose why didnt they just say that . You know because they rarely talk about what they would use special forces for. But you know, dexter said, and i think quite accurately, these things can get to be a bigger and bigger problem. And the reason they get to be a bigger problem is there are a lot of chemical weapons in syria. And you could imagine a number of them in motion at any given time. And going in seizing them is not simply a question of landing the 82nd airborne and picking it up and flying it out. You can do that with Nuclear Weapons. You might be able to do that with biological weapons. Its very risky at times to move chemical weapons. They leak, you can cause the kind of problem youre seeking to prevent. Rose this is the kind of thing theyve been thinking about for a while. What to do if the syrians start to move the chemical weapons. At the worst moment they were worried about that, that somehow assad might seek to go somewhere into a kind of enclave and take the chemical weapons with him. And then in a free for all in syria he would have a powerful force to work with. Hes already moved those weapons. Rose from where to where, within his own control. Yes, to keep them in his control. As the government has lost control of the territory theyve had to pull some of these weapons in. But just to get to the transfer again, i think if there was any evidence that assad tried to transfer, was transferring those weapons to hezbollah, the israelis would not wait for the United States. Theyd go immediately. I think theres one thing worth mentioning here. When i was doing some reporting on this early in the year, the pentagon has done some Contingency Planning what it would take to secure all the sites and to make them safe. The numbers are staggering. The numbers that i was told is up to 75,000 troops on the ground is what it would take to go in and secure everything. And thats obviously horrifying and nobody rose youre talking about a whole crosssection. Thats how many bodies you need to do. Imagine that, trying to go into the middle of a very complicated civil war that has a desperate government on one side. And you know, basically the Strongest Group among the rebels is alqaeda on the other. Try to parachute in the middle of that and sort out where the chemical weapons are, good luck. Rose let me talk about some issues that have to do with this that will come up in the questioning. It is this, david. What are the targets . And are they changing . First question, charlie, the most important thing they seem to be excluding from the targets are the chemical weapons themselves precisely because we dont want to blow them up and trigger a calamity. That means you have to focus command and control systems, delivery systems. I think the big question which the administration is grappling with behind the scenes but does not want to discuss much out in public, is the question of whether or not its own plan is sufficient enough to actually prevent assad from using these weapons again and would set him back enough that it would make a significant difference on the ground. Now remember the president in his conversation with pbs last week said he just wanted to send a shot across the bow on the use of chemical weapons. Well a shot across the bow is not likely to make a big difference, and so now youre beginning to hear the Administration Speak in different terms about degrading assads capability, thats a phrase that secretary kerry used today. And youre also hearing them talk about the possibility that they would engage in some kind of broader destruction that was hinted at by senator mccain when he came out of the whitehouse yesterday. Rose but they do not use the word regime change. They do not. And i think thats for two reasons. One it has echos of the iraq war and theyre trying to distinguish this conflict from that. But secondly, you dont want to set out and say that youre going to bring about regime change and then once you miss assad on the first, second and third strikes, youre into a prolonged war until you go get it. Rose are those people, are those people who worry that the strike will be too limited, are they prepared to look at the authorizing, the authorization and simply say its too limited, i cant vote for it so that the whole thing fails in the congress and its a great embarrassment to the president. Im not certain they are. But since the legislation wording is not yet been altered, at least we havent seen alternative wording yet, im not quite sure weve gotten to that part of the debate. Youre going to see one of those odd moments here where the far left of the Democratic Party may team up with the sort of tea party write of the Republican Party in seeking to stop an interintention altogether and in the middle theyll be debating this question whether the word gives the president enough the president enough impact. This constantly comes up. Why on the part of the republicans and the question today for secretary kerry and others, was, why have they not been able to get those weapons that have been authorized to the people that they wanted to receive them. Whats the problem . And whenever they raise that question, secretary kerry said again today we could discuss that in a private session. Whats the problem . Well i think we know, i mean theres not a lot of evidence yet that the weapons have gotten, that any of the weapons have i dont know, i mean i think if you look, everybody else is doing this. Saudis are. Rose my question becomes if the saudis are doing it and the turks are doing, they all buy weapons on the open market i assume. Yes. Some of the weapons that particularly say the saudis are pretty sophisticated. Rose are they getting in and whose hands are they getting to. Theyre getting, i think all those rebels are getting. Rose across the section. Those that are absolutely. And just to come back to this question of regime change and i mean once the other big reason we dont want to do it, well why dont we do that. If he with a take down assad. General dempsey said the other day, there is no group, a sort of moderate rebel group thats in any position to take over. The one group that is presented to take over is the front which is basically alqaeda. Rose what about the question if they done something earlier which the president denies, would there have been a possibility. David, what do you think of that. The president denies they gone in two years ago it would have been a very different situation. Thats the argument mccain makes. Right. This is the would have, should have, could have argument of the syrian intervention. The president made a statement nearly two years ago now saying assad had ago but he didnt at the time seem to have a plan to enforce that. Then last year we know that secretary clinton was then still in office and director petraeus, David Petraeus who was in his last few weeks as the c. I. A. Director before he resigned, made an argument for greater army of the rebel. They didnt want to do it for exactly the reason dexter just brought up which is hard to tell which among the rebels you want to arm and thats harder today than it was a year ago. At the same time, i think you might make an argument that had the president reacted more forcefully to the earlier examples of chemical weapons use, which started in about april, then he might not have been quite in the position that hes in today of having to explain to the American People and to congress why in his view this is a red line you cannot let cross. And he set that red line a year ago, he was very reluctant because the intelligence wasnt 100 to act on it in the spring. I mean you know, theres a pattern here. President said assad has to go but hes not clear these really prepared to do anything about it. A year ago he said this is the red line. Theres been as we can see theres been really no preparation made. Rose were not sure its crossed the red line. Yes, that took a long time. And in the meantime, assad, according to the exile groups, i dont think the whitehouse disagrees with this, assad has used chemical weapons as many as 30, 35 times all at very low level. Hasnt killed more than 100 to 150 people totals. I think its probably what brought about what happened in east guta when he killed 1400. Rose therefore they decided to up the ante. Yes, to go big. And when i mean look, assad may have miscalculated and a year from now when somebodys throwing a noose over a street light in downtown damascus he may think this is the moment he miscalculated and the west decided to get in and finally drive them out. But i think until that moment, i mean assad has basically had, he add a free rein. Rose whats the situation on the ground today. Is it a standoff or assad, the regime gained the advantage . Well, if we back up a second. If you go back to december or january, it looked like assad was teetering. It looked like he was going to go and at that moment, you had basically it was a kind of wake up moment for the iranians and for hezbollah. And for the russians. And they really went in big. And so since then, over the last eight months, assads position has really stabilized. And i think that one of the puzzling things about the chemical weapons attack that he undertook, the really big one is why did he do it. You would think that would be the act of a desperate man. Hes got a lot of reason to be desperate today than he did eight months ago. Rose suggest a reason he did it. I think he thought he could get away witness. To answer your question, i think its a muddle on the ground right now. Its a stalemate. The really scary thing is the strongest rebel group by far is the craziest. Rose some say the better fighters too. Absolutely. Rose attracting more recruits. David, tell me, you know a lot about this. How do you think the iranians see this and how far are they willing to go . Either if theres an attack or to do something to increase their support for assad. You know the iranian calculation here is a pretty complicated one. On the one hand theyve depended heavily on assad and hes the transfer point to hezbollah and vitally important in their influence to lebanon and so forth. But on the other hand, at some point they may come to the conclusion that he is a diminishing asset and they need to think about the postassad period. So its conceivable that if there is an attack, if assad for some reason is destabilized, doesnt emerge from the attack strong or stronger, that the iranians may recalculate. The second thing thats going on is, the sanctions are hurting them. And clearly there is at least talk in iran of a much more serious negotiation with the United States on the nuclear issue. And so theyve got to decide at some point whats more important to them, whether or not coming to some kind of an agreement that could begin to lift the sanctions is more important than their link to assad. And the United States meanwhile has got to calculate whether hitting assad if in fact Congress Agrees to allow some kind of limited strike, and i agree with dexter i think in the end the president probably will get some kind of authorization. The u. S. Has got to decide to what degree do you want to press this before it begins to impinge any effort to get a peaceful solution with the iranians. But you know, secretary kerrys underlying argument has been whatever you think about the syria argument here, if the iranians see the u. S. Back away from a red line theyve drawn, theyre going to come to the obvious conclusion that the president is not willing to enforce the red line on nuclear as well. And if the israelis come to that conclusion as well, it will probably change their calculus about conducting an independent strike. Rose whats interesting what you just said and what others have said, it seems to me the most compelling argument right now is if you dont do this, it will send a terrible signal that might have far reaching consequences otherwise. First the argument that this thing could be a quagmire. The other is that if you dont do something, the iranians will take that as a statement they can go full speed ahead on nuclear. I think thats right and thats one of the reasons that when the president came to the conclusion that he did, that he had to draw the red line a year ago, youd like to know how many steps down the line the whitehouse has sort of thought about this. Im sure they thought about it some but obviously youve gotten a lot more complicated in the years since he made that statement. I think theres one other thing we havent mentioned here which is just if the iranians lost syria, that would be catastrophic for them. I think they would lose hezbollah and lose this whole kind of shiite imperiali. j they have. Rose having the iranians lose syria without having a whole group of radical islamists take power. I think thats the 64,000 question. I think it explains the reluctance of kind of everybody here, including the president. Which is how do you move this thing without creating a gigantic power vacuum in the middle of the middle east. Weve seen that before. Rose what do you think on that point, david . I think this is the problem for the president. I mean, the oddity here is that the president and the iranians have a common interest in making sure theres not a sunni jihadist leadership in syria. At the same time the iranians may well feel that what theyve seen come out of this entire debate and whats going to play out in the next few weeks in congress, is that deep reluctance within the United States and understandable reluctance get involved in another middle east conflict. Especially at a time when the u. S. Feels as if its probably rest reliant on middle east oil than at any moment or at least has the prospect of becoming less reliant. And as a result, i think the iranians may see this as a moment in which they could determine that the United States really wont stop them from taking those last steps toward a weapon. And as weve discussed, they may not need to actually take the final step of obtaining a nuclear weapon. They may just want the region to know that they could build one in a matter of weeks. Rose where are the iraqis on this, this syria . This is fascinating. I mean, i dont, i dont think it would be possible for the iranians to sustain the Syrian Regime without the cooperation of the maliki government in baghdad which is ostensibly an american ally. Rose ostensibly. Ostensibly. We pulled out of iraq and one of the consequences of that was the iranians moved in in a bigger way than theyve ever been before. Theyre standing over maliki to make sure that he does what they want him to do. And what that means in this case is ceaseless stream of cargo weapons carrying men, material, am mission and everything. Rose baghdad to damascus. No, from tehran. Thats whats keeping assad standing. So without iraq none of this would be possible. Rose what are the russians giving assad. I think at this point, charlie, what the russians are giving assad right now is the only super power cover that hes got. Obviously they have a major base thats there, but the russians have two agendas here. One is keeping assad a long time ally and big customer alive, but there are other big agenda item here is keeping a thorn in Barack Obamas side. Clearly thats where they are. Look the russians are the only ones who are making the argument so far without any particular evidence that its the rebels and not the government that made use of these chemical weapons. Theres no evidence of that. Rose theres no evidence that the rebels used chemical weapons. No evidence that rebels have capability to use chemical weapons. Charley, the thing about sarin is, its not easy to use, as the japanese discovered as they intestigated the attack in their own subway system. And to use it as a weapon, you need to be fairly technologically sophisticated, be able to keep the savstable ld use it as a weapon. And thats something that the u. S. Intelligence communitys looked at a lot. I cant rule out the thought that some sophisticated rebels would be able to go do it. But it seems like the kind of thing that really requires statesponsored laboratories. Rose is there anybody that seriously makes the arguments, do the russians seriously make the argument that the rebels might have done it or is that simply part of their own ploy their own strategy to maintain their own role and try to make the argument to protect assad. Well secretary kerry during the course of the hearing today said that every time the russians are presented with evidence they simply turn around and say we believe that the rebels do it. Now the french, the british and the americans have all turned out reports of varying degrees of specificity laying out their case, either you might find it convincing or not. I havent seen a case yet laid out by the russians for their position. Rose and the United Nations is simply going to make a determination that chemical weapons were used and not where they came from. Thats our understanding. Rose what does it mean in terms of where the world is and where the un and all of those kinds of arguments. In the end the president has pretty much laid out im going and i want congressional b what if he doesnt get congressional support . Does that mean that the president looks at this and says okay, if the congress is not with me, if the people are not with me, im not going to go do this or does he say i became president to make hard desexes and this is a moral issue of Great National concern and National Security interest in the country and thats why we have. Its hard now having asked for authorization if he doesnt get it, how can he go in after that. But i think you asked about the United Nations. I think this is a perfect illustration of the how powerless they are in a situation like that. The russians would veto any attempt to get rose so would the chinese. We havent heard from the chinese, have we david, much on this . Not much and they tend to take the view that you know, nobody should intervene in internal affairs. Rose like the concept of sovereignty. They like the concept of sanity a sovereignty which s why we havent heard from them. Charlie you raised a question here why this is such a huge gamble to the president. If he doesnt win this vote, and im with dexter, i suspect he will probably win it but not terribly impressively. If he doesnt win it, then hes got to chose between overturning what or ignoring what congress has voted on and appearing to the rest of the world to have very little influence at home or abroad. Its not a good place to be and thats why this is such a big role of the dice. Rose all eyes are focused on washington. Thank you david very much. I kept you longer than i had planned to and i know you have a piece to write for tomorrow but thank you so much. Always glad to be with you, charlie. Rose david sanger with the New York Times. And you too. When do you go back overseas. Too soon. Rose well be back talking about the 2014 elections and the debate taking place in congress. Rose both houses of congress returned to washington after a month long hiatus. President obamas decision to seek congressional approval for potential strike on syria will be at the top agenda. Midterm elections looming both democrats and republicans will use the coming weeks to set the tone for their campaigns. The syria vote and the democrats ability to retain control of the senate will likely shape the president s legacy. Joining me from washington, jonathan martin. Hes a National Political correspond empt in New York Times and chrisally saw from the washington toast and Maggie Haberman from politico. Im pleased to have each of them. Let me begin with you. What do you think is going on in the king in a sense as they look at this and how do you see it lining up on this first day of testimony on the part of the chairman of the joint chiefs, the secretary of state and the secretary of defense. Well look charlie, i think getting House Speaker john boehner and majority leader eric cantor to come out publicly and say were going to be for this use of force on syria is important. Whats fascinating in a way though is how indicative it is of how much washington has changed. That might a decade ago have said okay well now its going to pass the house. But as weve seen, john boehner and eric cantor dont necessarily have the ability to say were going to deliver a majority of our majority behind this. Look at the farm bill. Look at other times the conservative minding wing of the Republican Party has revolted. Its harder. I think it will likely pass the senate. I think you heard some of that coming out of the hearing today. People like bob corker and marco rubio seem to want to be for it. I think the house, its a very difficult policy and political change. Rose before i go to you jonathan let me make sure. Boehners support for it today does not mean necessarily he can carry the House Republicans on this issue. Thats 100 correct, charlie. Rose how do you see it jonathan. Its in the house obviously. What will make the determination as to whether enough republicans are on board and enough democrats on the left are on board. Charlie, thats the challenge. The far right and the far left and were both skeptical of this intervention. Look, i was struck by the fact that geo politicalship in the house pointedly noted this was going to be a conscious vote. A conscious vote is a euphemism were not going to put any skin in the game here and were not going to try to actually deliver votes. So yes, theres this symbolic power of the two top leaders, boehner and cantor in the house gop Conference Supporting the measure. But if theyre not going to aggressively try to secure the votes, then that doesnt mean that much. Especially given as chris said the fact that even when they do try to go after votes and deliver votes, they arent always successful. The polling is out today among democrats, independents and across the country he show its not popular. If this is a socalled free vote thats what they call it in capitol hill when the votes are not going whipped or being chased. If this is a socalled free vote, youre going to see a lot of members take a pass charlie. Rose so on the republicans side you get mccain making the kinds of statements hes making. Who has influence on the republican side now to make a difference . Can mccain do it . You know, i think charlie, mccain will be able to appeal to some of the hawks in the Republican Party. But i think more than mccain, it will prompt some folks on the republican sign is the Donor Community and the political community. People who are politically ambitious looking toward 2016. Its not going to be mccain necessarily. But theres people like rand mall on rand paul on the otr side who has a lot of sway on this kind of issue which is apparently this ascended libertarian leaning Tea Party Wing of the party on National Security. I think its going to be fascinating to see what kind of votes rand paul can move across capitol hill in the house because there are a lot of freshmen and sophmores in the house gop who align much more with rand paul than john mccain. Rose speaking of libertarian trending, what does the governor of new jersey say about this. The governor of new jersey has punted on talking about Foreign Policy or the beer summit with rand paul. This is not something hes shown an interest in weighing. Hes so local new jersey centric and not administrating from that. Rose go ahead. Charlie, just to add. Jonathan, this is a moment, i think, for rand paul. So much of the focus is on president obama and can he sell this resolution. This is a moment, i think, where rand paul looks into conservatives and into republicans in the face and he says this is where i think the party should go, which is a much less hawkish, more driven by what is americas interest. This is not the Republican Party of Ronald Reagan its certainly not the Republican Party that dominated on Foreign Policy and National Security matters after september 11. This is a very clean break. There are places where rand paul and Establishment Republicans align. This is not one of them. So im fascinated. Hes already staked where hes going to be which is oppose the resolution. Can he, to jonathans point, drive people, and i would note for everybody who says rand paul is out on the fringes both nbc, wall street journal poll and the Washington Post poll have shown a majority of americans, democrats and republicans opposing the use of force against syria, which is where rand paul is. This is rand pauls really first best chance to orient the Republican Party a come home Foreign Policy. This is one of the most interesting debates of the next three years as the Republican Party tries to finds itself. And this is the real start in terms of the Foreign Policy sector of that conversation. To jonathans point theres always been a sense of theegae realizes and the paul. They believe the public or the party the majority of the party will end up where they are. For the first time youre seeing a potential head to head clash over syria where that may not happen and rand pauls position is no people are not going to move theyre going to stay with me. Theres something to be said for him having that position. This would be what the sixth war. People are tired of this. Rose is it possible syria could cloud the remainder of president obamas term. I think its very possible and the way this has played out is of great concern to american democrats who are worried about his legacy. Its not clear what the end game is. I think kerrys testimony today was difficult at times to put it mildly, and so well see how it goes. Rose how difficult. He was so of free associating with boots on the ground and thats not a great moment. Thats not something you should be musing about. Rose no. Charlie, i was going to say that the calendar alone is whats really important to think about. We are now in the first week in september. This is obviously going to dominate for the next two weeks probably the next month. Then youre into october. The clock is ticking before you hit 2014. When does immigration get belt with. At some point this fall theyre going to have to deal with the debt ceiling. Keeping the government running. What happens to immigration. Does that push to 146789 then youre into mid Election Year then politics clouds the issue. The calendar is a real challenge for president obama as he tries to take advantage of every day here in his second term. Rose what do you think the president would go if he did not have, if he hadnt crossed this red line, hadnt drawn the red line and then have it crossed and understanding the repercussion understanding the red line and then not doing anything about it. What would he have liked to have done about the middle east, simply ignored it stayed away from the paramount issues of immigration budget and keeping the house in order. Immigration is where they would like to keep the issues. Demonstrate 12eubg issues is where his administration would like to keep the issue. Correct. I think theyve accurately described where it is. Rose chris. I was going to just add to maggie, in a way it almost defines his presidency. Maybe it defines the modern presidency charlie in the age of sort of blogs and cable tv and twitter. It feels as though president obama has always been waiting to pivot back to talking about the economy and domestic issues, and inevitably Something Else has taken itself and installed it. And forced him to deal witness. I can tell you beyond a should owe of a doubt. Look at before syria. Edward snowden, i know the president has said, look these reforms he has proposed. Were going to get there anyway but im not sure that the timing would have been where he wanted them to be. Now were on syria. As jonathan points out this president looked at 2013 well do something on guns in the wake of new talent and those are the two big pillars in the first year of my second term. Guns is nothing happening with and immigration looks cloudy to get anything done looking at how the house has set theyre going to do a peace meal approach. Now that the calendar is pushed back can you get into a Conference Committee by 2013 it seems unlikely. Or people who dont want immigration are waiting out the clock. Thats the other problem. Rose so what will be the 2014 Midterm Election a referendum on . What will be the great debate in 2014 . If youre a democrat, charlie, you hope that it will be a referendum on House Republicans and republicans in general, what democrats would describe as their in transgence whether its healthcare or immigration or Foreign Policy though i doubt 2014 mid terms decides on Foreign Policy. If youre a republican you hope very strongly they will be a referendum on barack obama he has said one thing he wants to change washington though his actions tell a different story. Healthcare which revvs off the republican beige theres two different messages. Thats because most people dont believe this is going to be a waver year on either side. This is the status quo 2014 were heading into. The arguments chris just laid out and i think hes exactly right, those sound surprisingly like the arguments we heard in 2012. I dont think youll hear much difference. Rose is that a wave year. No, it was not a wave year. The mood, i think 2010 was a wave year where House Republicans yes, but 2012, the issues of sort of the intransigent Congress Versus the obamacare and competence of the Obama Whitehouse or how you feel about the Obama Whitehouse thats the argument of 2012 and the democrats argue they won that. I dont see a big difference on either sides approach right now. Rose in terms of president ial politic and obviously shaped by a whole range of things interesting Midterm Election and how syria plays itself out and rand mall and libertarianism and whole range of others. On the republican side where do you see it today in terms of where people are staking their own ground beyond rand paul. Ill defer to jonathan on that. Rose go ahead jonathan. Look, i think youve got two, in basketball terms, youre a North Carolina line guy. Hes just trying to butter you up. With two brackets, two brackets determine. The rand paul bracket would be folks like rand paul, ted cruz, perhaps Rick Santorum running again. The more Movement Conservative type candidate. And then youve got the more traditional establishment oriented. That certainly would include Chris Christie, perhaps marco rubio, jeb bush, down in florida. The pier has party has got to figure out who it is. You talk to folks and they say look we have not nominated a Movement Conservative really for a long time. Maybe reagan, although he was a twoterm governor of california. Basically the party after two terms of [ obama is going to wat to win again in 2016. This party is a much more conservative place and the fact is were not going to nominate after mccain and romney one more pragmatist, were going to nominate a real conservative this time. Thats going to be litigated over the course of the two andahalf years. Its too far out to know whats going to happen when the two winners of those brackets come out of the brackets. Thats how it looks right now. If i could ad, i think january thans right with this for lation. The establishment in washington the people i talk to in my opinion under estimate the potential power of a rand paul or ted cruz really making a run for it. This is not a Fringe Movement i dont believe at this point. Jonathan is right, the establishment stop those folks the establishment does tend to win. Rand paul, he is not his fathers conservative. He is a more sort of polished version and i think people under estimate him at their peril. I think thats absolutely rose thats not what you thought he was going to say. I thought chris was going to go with the quote unquote third way which is there are a lot of people, and i dont think jonathan mentioned this in his bracketing. There are a lot of people who see scott walker as a possible sneak up the middle alternative. The third bracket. The third and perhaps maybe slightly lower chair bracket. Because of what happened in the referendum. Because all of the things that Chris Christie talks about that makes him a winner. Scott walker has arguably a stronger case to make. He won a recall election. He made the same kinds of moves he would argue that he stuck with it with sort of less flash, hes right next to iowa. A joint state in the general election. Rose does Chris Christie have any claim that he a kind of, has a kinship with tea party. People would say hes the conservative. The Rudy Giuliani, he is more conservative than he ever was but Chris Christies claim to tea party energy was he was elected in the early part of wave, elected in 2009. That is a legitimate point. Rose marco rubio. He was a tea party guy. Rose still or has he moved on immigration and places that calls for a redefinition. He has a base problem right now. I dont think most people would disagree with that. Where he is on the syria vote is interesting. Christies conservatism or Tea Party Appeal was mostly tonal. He was sort of brash. He was willing to say this president has failed. Maggie is exactly right hes not really Rudy Giuliani but hes not rand paul or cruz other. If you dig below sort of telling how it is to the press telling how it is to john boehner, there is not a person recordwise that is going to be in that same bracketing as a ted cruz or a rand paul or Rick Santorum. Weve sort of been in this place before, 1998, 99, the republicans were so radicalized by president clinton they impeached him. Were not unfamiliar with the republicans coming out of a two determine Democratic Party reviled by the republican base. Theres a precedent for this. The question is, though, has the party fundamentally changed since the late 90s when a thoroughly establishment figure like george w. Bush can get the nomination of a party that had been led by tom blithe and dick army. Can Chris Christie seek control of the party. I think its the most fascinating story line in american politics today. I agree with jonathan totally. But with the caveat for christie hes an establishment politician who doesnt have being a former president s son doesnt have sort of the clear, the new york money establishment is going to be very much behind christie. The National Establishment is not necessarily. And hes also not the governor of a red state which bush was. The governors were almost all behind george w. Bush. Correct. Frizz not in the early going. Maggies point is really smart. Is there a way, a were not eveg about. Its still pretty early rose barack obama in 2016. We dont know. Remember barack obama didnt really start to emerge. I remember sort of in the fall of 2006 charlie, barack obama went to, i remember he went to West Virginia and 5,000 people turned up. Even then, we were still in a world that was sort of hes a freshman senator a great speaker but can he do the. One quick point on barack obama and what he means for people making decisions going forward. I think the fact barack obama spent two years in the senate before running for president does changes the calculus of a rand paul. There is no longer the u. S. Spends 30 years in fact the opposite you have to spend less time. Rose the same way jimmy carter changed the calculus what he did in iowa when he got the nomination in 76. Quickly, how is the former secretary of state deciding to do this, assuming she is going to do this and most of us believe she is, even though she may not have made that decision. Lets assume whether shes made the decision finally or not, shes moving forward so shell be prepared if she does. Whats she doing to prepare. Funny you asked that. Shes not doing a whole lot. Shes giving paid speeches. Shes working with a small cadre of aids. Rose shes pitched herself to the found information. She has hitched her sell to the foundation. Its now the bill, hillary and chelsea foundation. Its run by a person who people think very highly of her. Shes going to be issuing some serious work and serious papers shell be focusing on women and girls, childhood development. These are all areas she considers her lifes work. These are natural extensions. Rose what she devoted her life to. Even as her part in the secretary of state. It gives her a platform from which he can run a base. Rose finally, joe biden. Two weeks, thats not an accident. Look i think joe biden, if Hillary Clinton does not run, Joe Biden Rose thats easy jonathan isnt it. If Hillary Clinton doesnt run. The question is its hard to see him running. The best indicator of running in the future is running hes run twice before but hes a smart politician, he knows. He has a legacy. He knows he cant win. I think all the posturing is maybe he runs against hilary is to say if she doesnt run everybody else, Martin Omalley everybody else thinking of running im first in line. Rose thank you very much, chris, thank you martin, thank you maggie. This is one of those things that happens when youre doing television if youre taking a program things happen after the program, after youve said goodbye and this has happened to us. Maggie haberman after taping our segment that youve just seen did some reporting. One of the questions we had raised what might former secretary of state Hillary Clinton do and where does she stand now. So after maggie left this table, she did some reporting and found out that the clinton forces are releasing a statement. So im pleased to have maggie stay here and help us understand this breaking news development. So tell me what secretary clintons going to do or say. Her aide gave me a statement saying she supports obamas approach to Congress Looking for an authorization of a limited strike in syria. Very short statement. I think its not a surprise that they did it. Its late in the day. Its sort of at the end of one news cycle but its also making it so theres not another day of questions about what shes going to say. Its not clear whether theres been communication between her folks and the president s folks but i find it hard to believe that there wouldnt be. Rose it would not be. Correct. Rose this is so significant and so consequential for the president hes clearly calling out every possible avenue to come in and help him. I think thats right and i also think that for her folks i think the feeling is that its better to have no daylight between former secretary and the president on this issue and give sort of a limited statement that at least doesnt keep feeding the narrative that shes ducking questions. Theres a lot of questions from republicans but not solely from republicans. The medias started to push on it harder. Has she talked about syria how can she not talk about syria. Her people came to the conclusion she couldnt. Rose thats one of the most important votes congress will take and weve talked about her president ial possibilities are apparent. One of the interesting things in terms of her narrative for 2016 is while she has a very long background, her most recent launch pad was at the state department. It was her least political, it was sort of this centrist hawk position she took. And one of the positions she took was on syria on her way out. It was reported that she and general David Petraeus had advocated arming some syrian rebels. Rose i dont think it was petraeus it was panetta and the secretary of state. And the whitehouse said no to this. It was described in reports not insignificantly the Clinton Petraeus plan. Those are not the only forces behind it but those were certainly the main thrust for it. The white house said no they feared getting drawn into the conflict even more deeply into the mid east than we already are. They feared the arms would get into the wrong hands. There are some people who argue that would have been a better approach. I think what secretary clinton wants to not do is end up litigating about what she did not do before but get ahead of what shes doing. Rose finally before we leave this. Where is former president clinton on this. I think youre going to see him echo what the secretary says. Rose in all things political. I think thats correct. Look we know he commented saying to senator mccain, i agree with you. In a private event there were a hundred people in the room. And mccain has been the most vociferous hawk urging more to do in syria whether it was actually intended as a slight or just bill clinton talking i dont know but he will be more circumspect now. Rose thank you maggie. Keep reporting. Thank you for joining us. See you next time. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications captioned by Media Access Group at wgbh access. Wgbh. Org 09 03 13 09 03 13 [captioning made possible by democracy now ] from pacifica, this is democracy now believed ourg power is not just in our military might, but in our example as a government of the people, by the people, and for the people. That is why i have made a second decision. I will seek authorization for the use of force from the American Peoples representatives in congress. In a