Industrial average rose 65 points to 17,500. Nasdaq jumped 57, and the s p 500 was up 12. For the week, the dow was the outlier. Down fractionally and posting its fourweek losing streak since 2014, its first one. Nasdaq did just the opposite, snapping its own fourweek losing streak and scoring the biggest weekly index gains. And the s p 500 broke its own skid, up after three weeks of losses. All in all, it was an eventful week, chock a block with reminders for investors as we turn toward summer. Reminder number one. The fed matters, and it may raise Interest Rates this summer. The minutes from the april meeting released wednesday all but said so. Not a promise, but lots of hints. And it wasnt just hints in the minutes. It was fedspeak. Listen to bill dudley of the new york fed. The economy looks like its growing above trend and inflation is stabling, the labor market is tightening. All that chatter caused fed fund futures to bet on federal bank policy to spike. They now price in a 30 chance of a rate hike in june, up from just 4 last week. Reminder number two. Consumers are spending, but spending selectively. Cars are hot. So are Home Improvement outlays. Discounters are doing okay. Even walmart is humming for a change. But roaring is what amazon and other online retailers are doing, and that spells trouble for old Line Department stores like macys and nordstrom. Their numbers were shabby, not chic. Were certainly going to see half of the business go online over the next 13, 14 years. If im right about that and its going to go up from the 7. 5 to 10 penetration now, theres going to be a lot of stores have to go away. One thing that isnt going away, we found this week, is the president ial race. Thats reminder number three. And its a tightening race, by the way, one that will surely hang over the markets between now and november. Trump is a presump. So is hillary. But she hasnt closed the deal just yet. And two polls this week show trump leading clinton among likely voters in november. Hes closing the gap in two other surveys. Investors, get ready for an interestin rod smith joins us now to talk more about the markets. Good to see you again, rod. Welcome back. Yes, thank you. Nice to be here. Lets start, first of all, with reminder number one, which is the fed, the Federal Reserve. As tyler pointed out in that piece, the fed matters. What did you glean from the minutes this week about what we should expect from the fed. I gleaned two things. The first one is they are acknowledging, which i think is fair, that the u. S. s economy continues to chug a log and create jobs. The second thing theyre acknowledging is if theyre going to do anything this year, it need s to be in june. September is way too close to the elections. And i think the third thing is, and this is where the markets got it wrong, the fed itself doesnt know itself what its going to do in june. The fed is due tadependent, but not just u. S. Datadependent but globally datadependent, and i think theyve come to an important understanding with china, which, after currency pegged to the dollar. While you might get one rate hike, which i think is unlikely, youre not going to get significant rate hikes. Can i make money in the stockmarket this summer, and if so how and where. Yes, you can, tyler. Not only you but all of your viewers, i believe. But you have to be, you know, realistic about your expectations if youre looking at the u. S. Stockmarket especially and if youre looking at, you know, the overall averages because Earnings Growth is not going to be that strong and as you guys mentioned, its an election year. But as long as the economy continues to grind higher, the stockmarkets going to do the same. Interestingly, though, weve got a new bull market emerging in something thats been a bear market for years and thats energies and utility stocks. Thats where i would be putting money at the margin to make money. You know, rod, as we look at whats going on in the economy, though, were also seeing some very interesting shifts. The consumers spending but not in the same places and retail struggling. Where do you see strength in the economy and is it enough strength to keep the economy and the markets moving forward . Well, i think its here we are three baby boomers talking about the new economy, but my guess is that your home is the same as mine and that the fedex and ups person turns up now three day as week whereas five years ago they barely showed up at all. I think as your earlier guest talked about, that is not going to change. I think retail and dynamics always changes, i think thats a big one. As far as the overall economy, people keep predicting its demise but theres Something Wonderful about a slow economy. Hue did you know the fedex guy shows up tall time . How did you know that . Right you are. Rod, well leave it there. Rod, thank you so much. What will it take for the Federal Reserve to raise Interest Rates this summer . Central bankers may say one thing. The markets another when it comes to one important part of the economy. Steve liesman explains why. Investors were caught by surprise this week by increasing talk from the fed of a possible june rate hike. One reason for the surprise . The april jobs report had been weakened and wouldnt seem to be enough to justify a hike. But the fed, they had a different take. Payroll gains of 160,000 were just fine for them. Thats because fed officials appear to have a lo eer standard for job growth than the market. For the markets 200,000 has become the mark of a healthy payroll report. For the fed it may be as low as half of that. The kind of growth that wed be expecting would be 80 to 100,000 jobs per month. So while 160,000 is not as good as what we were seeing in the first three month os testify year, it is probably good enough to continue to get labor markets to tighten up a little bit more to get a little bit closer to my own viewable employment. What the fed looks at is the level of job growth needed to take care of the increase in the work force. In other words, what keeps the Unemployment Rate roughly unchanged around 5 or lowers it just a bit . With immigration down and baby boomers retiring, the economys got less job growth than it used to. Fed chair janet yellen has put the number just around under 100. Another says its lower than 0,000. All of that asks the question. What happens when the jobs report comes out two weeks from now . It could still hike. If weve got a 160,000 number for example the market may view that as a disappointment where many with the fed may view that as well in excess of what is sustainable on the longrun basis. I think right now theres a gap between what the market and the fed think are good jobs numbers. The best bet for investors is . Hope for a lot of job growth. Thats good for profits and the economy. But be prepared. Whats disappointing for markets could be just fine for feds that have lower standards. For nightly Business Report, im steve liesman. Now for housing. Sales roast 1. 7 in april. That was the seventh straight month. Its dri mostly by the midwest which is the region considered the most affordable. It appears a bank in ecuador was the victim of a cyber attack similar to the ones that hit bangladesh and vietnam. It ended with thieves transfer 1g 2 million to accounts around the world. The discovery comes one week after s. W. I. F. T. , the global bank system that was breached told its clients to secure their local computer networks. But its not just the Global Banking network thats vulnerable. Your bank account is as well. Theres new malware that infects your computer and sits like a serpent waiting to strike. And as reported you cant just rely on your banks Internet Security measures anymore. You are a target all the time. Reporter when one of the top security advisers at ibm has a warning, you might want to listen. When we first saw it, we were looking at, wait, something bad is happening here, weve never seen it before. Reporter his team discovered the new malware. He said its already hit banks in the u. S. , canada, and europe. Its hard for Antivirus Software and others to detect it. Reporter thats because its a highly sew fophisticated combination of two tools. Spy ware and a tool that secretly waits to steal your information. It stays dormant until you to a financial website of interest and only then does it pop up. Like your username and password from Bank Accounts and more. The criminal is sitting on the other end obtaining that information in realtime and using that to log onto your account. How much do we think could be at risk . We already know of 4 million that were stole bin this malware. The potential is much bigger. Reporter the hackers behind it even leaving top researchers bewildered. Were up against professionals and we believe theyre located somewhere in eastern europe. Reporter according to him, the malware typically getting in through an email sending you a link and clicking that link will infect your computer. It may seem obvious but dont click on it. Make sure your system is up to date and dont use the same password for every account. And those paper statements you used to get in the mail, it may not be a bad idea. They can change things on the screen. While they steal money, they can make it look like the cash is still there. We reached out to the National Bankers association and they tell us the they have tools but that Cyber Security is a shared responsibility between consumers and banks. We also contacted the Financial Services information sharing and analysis center, a group set up by the industry to share threat information. They say u. S. Banking trojans and malware attacks, quote, continue to be a concern that the Financial Services industry takes very seriously and weve alerted our nearly 7,000 institutions to these types of threats. And how serious is this . According to him, just last year, 20 million financial records were stolen by malware. As for whats being done, according to the experts banks are working to reduce vulnerabilities and the fbi tells us that it will continue to combat cyber crimes. Im am drea day for nish. Coming up. Shopping for business stocks . One financial expert says it will grow 20 within a year. Something curious happened today at chicagos Ohare Airport when the head of the tsa arrived, the security lines were miraculously shorter, hmm. Much shorter than the long ones that have plagued that airport all week. Today the head of the agency along with illinois senator dick durbin and chicago mayor rahm emanuel promised shorter wait time. We had a breakdown here in chicago. That was unacceptable. The long lines and wait times caused quite a few people to miss their flights. As i said earlier this week at a previous talk, im very sorry for those people who did that, and were working hard to make sure that doesnt happen again. The tsa administrator also acknowledged that the summer will be challenging. Companies are sitting on a lot of cash, and one third of it is owned by just five u. S. Companies. According to moodys, apple, microsoft, googles Parent Company alphabet and cisco and oracle have more than 500 billion in cash and cash equivalence. Cash holdings are becoming even more concentrated as well. In 2013 those same five Companies Held 25 of the total. A key part of the Affordable Care act may slowly be caring away. Bronze plans, which tend to have the lowest preechlous of all the tiers also incur the biggest losses for insurers. So whats going to happen . Some of those insurers dont want to carry them anymore and as Bertha Coombs reports that could have implications for those who get their Health Insurance on exchanges. Judging from intishl 2016 rate requests, customers could be in for major sticker shock next fall and fewer lower cost options. Insurers are asking for sharp price increases after seeing big losses on exchanges the last two years. In Washington State the average increase request is 13. 5 . In oregon, the two biggest insurers want 30 increases. In new york on average, its 17 . And in virginia, 23 . Its said insurers are being more cautious for 2017 because some aca reinsurance provisions for backed up losses will expire. The health risk on exchange has not been very good. There has been a lot of adverse selection. Some of the sickest members are buying insurance, if you will, on the way to the hospital and after paying premiums only for one to three months, they then disenroll off of the exchanges, and that creates very heavy pressure and losses. For many insurers the biggest losses have come with the lowest cost bronze tier. Virginias blue cross said in its 2017 filing that it will stop selling bronze plans, which means that those customers would face a 70 increase next year because theyll have to shift to silver plans. The problem is that lower cost bronze plans tend to see more turnover, according to fund manager les frontlader. You have them signing up when they need something and hopping off when they dont. So what you have is a bad case of adverse selection which means youre only insuring basically the sick. But opting out of bronze plans also carries risks. Health connections is asking for 30 increase overall and its ceo told me theyre considering opting out of bronze plans but he worries that will only drive away more Young Healthy enrollees. Insurers have until late summer to submit their final plan offerings and one insurance regulator cautions there will be a lot more discussion with plans in the next few months. For nightly Business Report, im Bertha Coombs. Deere cut its earnings forecast for the second time in the year and thats where we begin tonights focus. The maker of Farm Tractors did manage to beat estimates, but the companys ceo said the results were hurt by the global farming recession and weakness in the equipment construction sector. It lowered its guidance for the full year but it excepts sales to fall less than previously estimated. Shares fell 5. 5 , 77. 74. Foot locker saw its revenue climb but revenue was mixed. Sales failed to meet targets. The shoe retailer also reported wore than expected same store sales growth and cited lower demand in its basketball schuchat goir. Foot locker sales fell more than 6 to 54. 77. And campbells soup posted revenue that missed street estimates thanks in part to a weak soup season in the u. S. Challenges in itself v8 beverages and a weather related disruption to is carrot supply, that was the problem there. Profit did rise, however, and came in above target. Campbells also raised its earnings outlook for the year. Its looking better for carrots. Oil and gas producer oil surge will buy rival interoil. French Energy Company total will also help fund that. Theyll create a gas field in Papua New Guinea to take advantage of that countrys low cost. Shares of intraoil gushed 30 higher to 43. 57. Oil surge trades in australia. And yahoo could get much less for its core business than it was hoping. The wall street journal says bids are expected to come in the 2 billion to 3 billion dollar range. Analysts had forecast between 5 billion and 8 billion. Shares fell more than a percent to 36 president 50. A list of stocks that will rise at least 20 in less than a year. First time joining us on the program, michael yoshakami. This is the first time youve been on the program, ben bernanke but maybe the first time youve been in the hot seat. Lets turn up the heat, michael. Disney is your first pick. Why do you like it . Good management, great brand, great Digital Content thats going to play around the world. Its 15 off its 52wook high and we think the recent earning myth was really more of an anomaly than anything else. Disney has many great things going for it. I think its a great company. Costco, a place i end up going to a lot. You do to disney too. I go to disney too. I go all over the place. I thought you were at home waiting for your fedex package. So costco is going to be the beneficiary of that dislocation youre hearing so much about in retail. The earnings problems well seeing for the retailers, the nordstroms numbers, yes, amazon is going continue to grow, but theres always going to be a place for brick and mortar. I think costco has a reasonable ability to expand. Great management, great brand, incredible customer loyalty. And number three is vodafone. Tell me the narrative behind it. Vodafone is all about the wireless space and increasing traction in place like india and china and emerging markets. I know emerging markets is a scary world for folks. This is not an emerging market stock. This is a stock that pays a healthy dividend thats going to give you the tuned to participate in the wireless growth thats happening in countries such as india. Thats why tim cook is there from apple. Thats why vodafone is going to have a huge presence in these developing markets. Michael, lets broaden it out a little bit. How do you feel about the market overall . What kind of a year do you think were going to have . You know, i think when its all said and done, probably a 5 to 7 year, which means its got a ways go since its basically at a sixweek low right now. You know, i think that the economy is not great, but its not as bad as everyone is saying. I think that the Federal Reserve probably will raise Interest Rates maybe a quarter percent. I would be shocked if they went half a percent. If they only go a quarter percent, were still talking about incredibly low cost financing for companies as well as individuals. We have Oil Companies starting to rebound a bit. So i think the outlook for equities is cautiously optimistic. Im not one of these doom and gloom folks you hear on the radio where the whole world is going to collapse in the next three months. I just dont see it. Lets hope it doesnt. Thank you so much. Always graduate great to see you. Coming up, sizzling success. How one entrepreneurs strategy to keep things simple helped him win over finicky customers and helped him make his millions. Heres a look at what to watch for next week. On tuesday we get more information on the spring selling season when new home sales are out. On thursday the fda is deciding whether to approve a controversial muscular dystrophy drug and on friday fed chair janet yellen is expected to appear at a panel hosted by harvard university. Thats what to watch for next week. So how do you make millions in a an industry where 60 of the businesses fail within the first year. For one restaurant chain founder, thence was literally location, location, location. He had to close three of his first steakhouse joints because of poor placement and since then he has personally and methodically skoutd every single spot. Nearly 500 locations and more than a billion dollars in sales later, hes figured how to beef up business. His story in tonights how i made my millions. Party steaks, killer ribs, ice cold beer. Its a winning formula for texas roadhouse, the lively restaurant chain with 1. 9 billion in annual sales thats been serving up food and fun for more than 20 years. How would you like your sirloin steak cut . And the man who recrated it all from scratch is tim taylor. It happen 40d years ago in his hometown of louisville, kentucky. Thats looking good. I started working in the Restaurant Business in high school as a busboy, so a long time, since i was 18. Taylor worked his way up to a waiter, a bartender, and eventually held management positions at chains like tgi fridays, ben begans and kfc. I learned that food quality matters. In the early days, i wont say which concepts i worked for but the food wasnt so good. So he began cooking up plans for his own place. He sketched out early ideas, where else, on a cocktail in 1992 and then went looking for investors. Theres a story you approached some big investors like john y. Brown of kfc. Absolutely. What did he tell you . No. I would say all told i got turned down over 100 times. I ended up getting three doctors to start me out at texas roadhouse. In february of 1993 taylor opened the first texas roadhouse in indiana with more following soon after. By the end of the first year texas roadhouse had served more than a quarter of a mill youngests. Sixsecond read. Sixsecond read, meaning you can see the establishment for six seconds. On a scouting in new york he looks for the right location with the ride ingredients for good success. Near the university. Were on the interstate and all the stores we would compete with are doing above the national average. Who gives you the best inform . Bartenders. Theyll tell you whether the location is doing Good Business or not. If you give them a big tip. Each feeds 5,000 to 6,000 customer as week with an average price of 15. That prices them right between applebees and outback steakhouse. What are the details that make you different, better, more . Uccessf i would say one thing, we cut our own meat inhouse, make our own dressings from scratch, a great our own cheese. Bringing that concept to other customers around the work has been taylors lifes work. 5,000 employees work at the restaurants worldwide and taylor has no plans to slow down. I think we can do 700 plus in the states. Internationally, who knows. Interestingly taylor doesnt advertise the success of his restaurant chain. He doesnt advertise much at all. He prefers that his managers do the marketing in their own Home Community which allows him to spend more money on food quality and zero on advertising. What a character. Dont expect to see him advertising on a super bowl. No. I dont think so. Really carefully legos from midsize towns off the beaten path, not in the major metros. Thats fantastic. All right. Thats the nightly Business Report for tonight. Have a great weekend. Im sue herera. And im tyler mathisen. Have a great weekend, everybody. See you. Its all right, its okay doesnt really matter if youre old and gray its all right, i say its okay listen to what i say its all right, doing fine doesnt really matter if the sun dont shine its all right, i say its okay were gettin to the end of the day pullman a couple of weeks ago, you were moaning the workload was too heavy without jack. But were not saying we dont need someone. Its just who that someone is. Whats wrong with steve . Nothing, nothing. Hes a nice bloke. He just needs calming down a bit. We didnt get a say in it. No, you didnt. Well, then. Well, then what . Finding a replacement for jack was my decision and mine alone, brian. But its a new member of the family. No, its a new member of the team. Hes a good detective and thats all that matters