Similar to those of the financial cririsis less than a decade ago. Then a funny thing happened on the way down, stocks reversed and all started to seem right with the world. Whats next . Reporter so after what started off as one of the worst starts to a year for the stock market in history, were right back to around flat for 2016, give or take a few points. Bulls and bears are feeling pretty good about their respective cases. After dropping 11 , the trend of bouncebacks has continued for the large cap s p 500 index. However, the parts of the market that are leading the way higher leave a lot to be desired. The biggest gains have come from high dividendpaying sectors like Telecom Stocks and utilities. The sectors that investors flock to when theyre worried about the economy. Some are optimistic about the market assuming some big negative factors change course. Remember the biggest negative last year, there were two. Declining oil and the rise in the dollar. Both those things at least for now have reversed themselves. If we can get some of that well have modest earnings improvement for the full year and that is what is necessary for stocks to do okay. Reporter thats not it. After all the stock market story is a global one and the Bigger Picture or macro concerns will be front and center for the rest of the year as well. I think theres going to be two big factors that will influence the rest of this years trade. One is the health of the global economy. In particular is china able to soft land and is europe able to continue to grow at 1. 5 . The second element has to do with Central Banks. Particularly Central Banks in europe, in japan, in china, still able and willing to repress financial volatility, not because they love markets but because thats the only way they can promote Economic Growth. The market has given investors a chance to reevaluate things. 2016 losses are now gone, at least when it comes to some of the major indices. Now the question is what will they do after hitting that reset button . For nightly Business Report, im dominic chew. Doug gordon joins us to tell us what hes expecting from the Financial Markets next quarter. And what it might mean for your money. He is senior Portfolio Manager at russell investments. Nice to have you here, doug, welcome. Are you great to join you, thank you. Are you still looking overall for 2016 for low singledigit returns globally . Thats right, i think that were looking forward after the volatile start to the year that well still see something in that low to single, medicine angle digit returns from the equity part of the portfolio Going Forward. Theres still a lot of really open questions, both tied to diverging Monetary Policy as we see not only what happens but how effective Monetary Policy responses prove to be. We have to get out of the woods a bit with respect to the impact of that slower, bumpy start in earnings as well. Lets look at two issues that certainly are going to be in the news for the rest of this year. One is the threat of terror. Particularly how it might affect the european economies. And the other is the u. S. President ial race. How do you see those two things affecting share prices . Yeah, interesting question. One that we normally dont have to think about. Kind of these outside factors that influence markets very materially, potentially. Obviously the threat with ret to what weve seen thus far in europe as well as around the world. Its a concern thats going to go forward. There certainly will be elevated responses. But again, we have to see how effective those are. Its one of those prove the negatives. When we dont know what the terror event could have been and it was thwarted, we dont see the impact so we cant measure it. When bad things happen like we unfortunately and tragically saw in brussels this week, that obviously brings to light what the potential impact can be. Domestically in the United States the president ial election puts another wrinkle into Capital Markets and markets Going Forward in 2016. I think one thing we do know amid a lot that we dont on that election is if we do assume the two potential candidates and a potential trump v. Clinton election is both of them will probably have a bit of trouble getting policy through congress that will likely, at least on the house side, stay in line with the republicans. And that might give a little bit more runway in terms of time for response to any regulatory or policy changes. The other thing that your team is watching is fed tightening. And now the overarching theme on the street is that they will not raise rates as often as originally said they would. But even if they do raise rates once or maybe twice through the rest of the year, theyre still going counter to their central bank counterparts around the globe. Yeah, thats exactly right, that divergent Monetary Policy is going to be interesting, both with respect to what the dollar does relative to other developed currencies and with respect to how the market responded. What we need to watch domestically will be that bright spot weve had in the u. S. Economy thus far, the labor market. We still see relatively robust payroll gains somewhere in the range of averaging 160,000 for a 12month perspective. Earnings as i mentioned before well have to look and see if that stumble in the first part of the year ripples. Weve had good numbers on eps side but expectations have pulled back, it will than Earnings Growth number that. Also its efficacy of these policy. Ecb put very accommodating policies forward, we need to see the uptake of the targeted lrp program and how that ripples into credit and lending growth in the eurozone. Very quick answer, in the equity market dozen you like america, europe, asia, japan, which . Very quick. Yeah, outside the u. S. Developed markets look a little better from a fully hedged perspective, in part because we have that uncertainty that sue mentioned around Monetary Policy in the United States and that pace. All right, doug. Thank you so much. Good to see you again. Doug gordon with russell investments. It was the same issue for oil as for stocks in the First Quarter. The first part we lovered in the 20s. Then things changed. Jackie deangelis has more on the reversal in oil. Reporter a bumpy quarter for crude oil prices. We saw crude go down to that 26 level for the second time before it rebounded back to 40. The dip attributable to the Global Supply glut. The bounceback due to rumors in the market that a production freeze could help stabilize the market. And hopes that the summer driving season will start to boost demand. But even if global producers meet in qatar on april 17th, can a consensus be reached . And would an agreement to freeze production at current levels be enough to support oil prices . I would think these theres a freeze now, that should be enough. Now granted that means that the demand must increase here. Which is something i am expecting in this driving season thats coming up. Freeze or no freeze the fear at the moment is that producers will feel comfortable pumping more in a higherpriced environment only to drive the market down again. And if history is an indicator, last year prices fell in june when stockpiles were little diminished. Summer driving demand wasnt enough to ball license supply and demand overall. Consumers are feeling the recent spike at the pump. Aaa says the National Average is hovering around 2 a gallon, up more than a quarter from a month ago. Gas prices could rise a bit over this driving season. But i dont think its going to be anything thats going to discourage motorists from using more gas, driving a little more. This is still a big improvement over the last couple of years as far as their costs. So i would say this is a positive gas season and it will be extra consumption from previous years. Investors and analysts are remaining cautious. They say the runup in crude oil prices more than 20 in the last month alone leaves little room to run. Jackie joins us now to talk a little bit more about what we might expect from here. I dont know 40 is the new 20 or 20 is the new 60 or black is the new red, i dont know. Theres a meeting in midapril as you mentioned in the piece. Whos going to be there . What are they aiming to accomplish . Thats an excellent question. And this is a producer meeting, not just of opec members, its global producers. Very hard to coordinate an effort for this and actually get a date on the table. But the problem is not everybody is coming to the table. So how do you implement a freeze when all of the parties arent necessarily coming to discuss . You have certain opec members like libya that arent coming. I havent heard anything about the u. S. Coming to the table to talk about production cuts. Russia is one of the nonopec producers that may be there. Obviously theyre more interested in implementing a freeze at this point. But unless you get all the parties together, and even if you do, consensus is so hard to reach. That begs the question, can we see oil back at 50 or 60 a barrel by the end of the year, as some strategists have gone on a limb and are expecting . Yes, some of the investment banks, some of the analysts out there, they are holding firm to those forecasts. They think 50 or 60 is possible. Then i have others on the other side of the table that are saying, no, actually from here, this is a little bit maybe of a head fake runup, we probably are going back into the 20s again and theres a possibility of that before things get better. I think youve got to settle in for a bumpy ride this year. I think 50 to 60, very optimistic. Gasoline has been going up just a little bit where i buy it in suburban new jersey. What are we looking for over the next few months and then into the fall . You know, its difficult to say with gasoline exactly as well. I can tell you this, the National Average according to aaa hovering just around 2 as were heading into the summer driving season. You are going to see a little bump from here as demand starts to hit the road, as we get into the warmer months. That demand usually peaks in july, around july 4th. Seasonally in the bad years the average around then has been about 3, if not sometimes a little bit over that. I do not think youre going to see that this year. As jeff said in the piece, its definitely going to be a little bit easier on your wallet. But its not going to be as great as its been. Jackie deangelis, thanks very much. The Federal Reserve did not raise Interest Rates in its two meetings during the First Quarter but there is belief that its april or june, those meetings could be in place. Steven friedman, Senior Investment strategist with bnp paraba, good to have you with us. I think a lot of people thought that based on the meetings in march that, well, there were probably only going to be two hikes, june, december, after the election. Now there is some talk that maybe april is on the table. What tune . Its a very good question. There has been a lot of fed presence come out in recent days making the point april is a live meeting. In theory i agree but i think the issue is the fed has signaled theyre considered about global risks. Its hard to imagine in six weeks theyll have that much more confidence theyll proceed with raising rates. Weve seen the terrorism incident recently, does that play into the fed being worried about the Global Situation . Because we have seen Economic Growth after terrorist incidents decline. Thats a possibility. I think its just one of the risks that they consider. I think largely what theyve been focusing on is the fact that a lot of the indicators point to a slowing in Global Growth momentum. Weve seen it in surveys and business activity. We see it in the hard data. Theyre just concerned that that will eventually have an impact on the u. S. And there is some concern in the u. S. Data as well thats pointing to slowing growth ahead. It is relatively rare that you have a divergence of Central Banks with many Central Banks cutting and seemingly ours on the verge of raising Interest Rates. Is that a concern to you or not . Well, i think it is a challenge in that veer very aware of it. I think thats why were seeing them signal a likely shallower path for Interest Rates. Theyre quite quarter if they were to forge ahead with a steady diet of rate increases as they have projected in december that would likely lead to a much stronger dollar which would only make it more difficult for them to meet their growth and inflation objectives. Speaking of inflation, theres not much inflation out there. I mean, how did they finesse, if you will, the target that theyve put out there that they hope to achieve on inflation . That were not even anywhere close to. I think this points to why they feel they can go very, very slowly. Were actually seeing their messaging on inflation change a little bit. What weve seen the last month or two is greater emphasis in their communications on the fact that theyre willing to tolerate inflation above 2 . I think earlier there was a perception in markets that the 2 objective was more of a ceiling. Theyre trying to push back on that and attempt to put some support underneath inflation expectations. Talk to me for a moment about two things that seem to concern some commentators. One is the size of the Balance Sheets that both the u. S. And now increasingly the ecb have. And whether that poses a longterm risk of some or any sort to Economic Growth. And the second one is whether the Central Banks are running out of tools to influence economies. Two very good questions. I think they both feed into this narrative that Central Banks are essentially out of bullets. On the Balance Sheet side its not something im particularly concerned abou one could argue that eventually the size of the Balance Sheet, it could lead to losses for Central Banks. That is more of a political issue. Central banks can operate with negative capital, they have in the past. It can be an issue if it becomes an issue for politicians and impede central bank dependants. There might be some limit to quantitative easing, thats the main concern i would have for Balance Sheet growth. On the issue of Central Banks running short on tools did this has been a very strong narrative in markets the last month or two. I think its been one of the reasons why we saw that deterioration in january and february. Its not a narrative that ive put a lot of faith in. I think for Central Banks they might appreciate that their tools may have some declining benefits. But if those are the tools they have i would expect them to respond to that with even more forceful policy. Steven friedman, thank you very much. As we draw closer to this summers political conventions, the race for the white house is intensifying. And the primaries that take place in the Second Quarter will go a long way in determining the candidates for both parties. John harwood joins us from washington tonight. John, welcome. As always, are both nomination races basically over . Or are they still in play . Not quite. The democratic race is more over than the republican race. Hillary clintons got a substantial lead over bernie sanders. Very difficult under democratic rules for sanders to catch up. Hes got to start winning not knowledge big states but win them by big margins. Thats very difficult to do. No sign hes going to be able to do that. On the republican side, donald trump has got a lead. But its still unclear how certain it is that he can get the 1237 delegates he needs to be nominated on the first ballot. Stop trump forces are rallying around ted cruz. John kasichs been fading a bit although he hopes when the race moves back east to have prospect to pick up victories. Ted cruz is looking to wisconsin as a place to slow down donald trump. But donald trump remains in the drivers seat. Somebodys got to knock him off. It hasnt happened in the recent contests. Both parties are becoming used to the idea of a donald trump candidacy in the general election. How do they assess his prospects to win, especially against Hillary Clinto well, a couple of things about that. First of all, most of the polling now suggests that Hillary Clinton has an advantage over trump in the general election. Hes been a very divisive candidate. He has repelled nonwhite voters. Thats an important part of the democratic coalition. If you had to make a judgment youd say Hillary Clinton is a strong favorite. But even within the Clinton Campaign theres wariness about trump, a feeling that hes more of a wild card than theyve expected. Hes broken all the rules so far. If he can increase the republican share of the white vote by a small but significant margin, without having any other effects in other parts of the electorate, he could win the race by flipping some states that president obama won in 2012. Its an uphill fight for him but not impossible. Fascinating stuff. John, thank you so much. John harwood in washington. Next, whats in store for the upcoming spring travel season . And a check on how the spring selling season is unfolding for houses. Spring officially arrived less than a week ago but the spring selling season for housing has been under way for a while now. Diane olick joins us with a look at how things have been shaping up. We got mixed signals from housing. Existing home sales fell sharply. Newly built home sales are rising. Whats going on here . Well, it really has to do with supply. Theres a very tight supply of existing homes for sale which is pushing Prices Higher and actually slowing down the sales because there arent that many homes for sale. New homes, theres a lot more supply. Again, youre paying a Price Premium for new home sales. New home sales are still running below historical averages. Theyre just doing a little bit better. The question Going Forward is, will the big builders benefit over the fact that there are so few existing homes for sale . Lets talk about the price rise that you just mentioned. They are rising but is that straining affordability, both for firsttime buyers and for people who would like to trade up . Absolutely on both counts. Its straining affordability for the firsttime buyer who is still being sidelined, just 30 of buyers in february were firsttimers. That number share should be around 40 . Were also seeing people afraid to move up. Afraid theyre not going to be able to afford that home so theyre not listing their home. For sellers, its not a limit. Its not that the sky is the limit. Theyre going to have to look at what the comps are and be smart about how theyre selling. So thats one tip if im going to sell my house and list it this month. What are some other things that the sellers should consider . Well, one thing, list your house on thursday. Im not kidding. Really . People say that on thursday, yeah, youre going to see most of the potential buyers trawling the internet, looking for homes that just came on, theyre going to be mapping out their open house touring for the weekend. So thursday is the perfect day to list your home. Dont list over the weekend because people wont see it. Fascinating. Staging is a big thing now. Yes. Staging is a big thing right now. You absolutely want to stage your home. And more and more professionals are doing it. And interestingly, a lot of Real Estate Agents are starting to pay for the staging themselves. Saying that it is worth it in the price that theyre going to get for that home. Even if you think your house is absolutely gorgeous and perfect, you want to stage it. Dont just clean it up. Make sure the rooms look clean, fresh, and impersonal. Someone lives there but not necessarily you live there. Because the buyer wants to be able to picture themselves there. Again, that last one is the sky is not the limit. Buyers are not stupid. They know what the homes are worth. Thats right. I wish somebody would come stage my house. Buyers ultimately set the price, not the seller. Thats exactly right. Thanks, diana olick. This easter weekend marks the unofficial start of the spring travel season. While security will be top of mind following this weeks attacks in belgium, people are still making plans for getaways. The traditional destinations will get the usual throngs of visitors. But this year, some places off the beaten path are getting attention. Phil lebeau has a look. Reporter as winter winds down, spring break is heating up. Especially in the caribbean where those looking to get away are finding their way to less popular spots. A lot of people now are looking for alternatives that may be a little more laid back, relaxing. Places like playa del carmen, riviera maya, where they may not pay as much and have a little different feel. Reporter orbits says airfares this the spring are down roughly 15 compared to a year ago, partially because of the drop in fuel costs and because more airlines are adding routes to the caribbean and thats pushing fares lower. Thats the good news. The bad news . Hotel rates are edging higher. Largely because of greater demand. Theyll see a slight increase overall of about 4 in come edition prices. But there are markets where theres actually substantial savings. Reporter europe remains a popular trip for a couple of reasons. First airfares have been falling. Second, the euro remains weak, which means americans are getting more bang for their buck at hotels, restaurants, and shops. Were seeing that the strength of the dollar abroad is really attracting people to upgrade their spring break destinations to go places that are further away and then have typically have been more expensive like paris, dublin, panama city, where weve seen an increase over the last five years of 476 in hotel bookings. Reporter for those driving somewhere for a long weekend or spring break, good news as well. While gas prices have moved higher the last month, theyre still lower than where they were a year ago. And most experts believe gas prices will stay at around 2 a gallon as we head into the summer. Phil lebeau, nightly Business Report, chicago. Coming up, what to do to protect your hardearned money in the years leading up to your retirement. Market volatility, like what weve seen this quarter, can wear on the nerves of the most seasoned investors. But what about those closing in on the end of their working careers . The decade or so before calling it quits . Sharon epperson has some tips for those heading into that retirement danger zone. Reporter 63yearold michelle jeggy has gone planning for retirement, putting money into stocks for decades. Ive been a big investor. Thats the way to grow. Its a rocky road but thats the way to grow. Reporter now jeggy, who runs her own Insurance Business in suburban new jersey, is in the danger zone. Those last five to ten years before retirement can make or break your financial future. Especially if you leave your hardearned money exposed to too much risk. Ive always invested at least 30 of my money, if not more. Reporter an unexpected financial crisis can wreak havoc on investments. Think about 2008. When the average u. S. Worker lost about 24 of the balance in their 401 k account. Even in better times market volatility always unpredictable, could seriously damage your nest egg. Jeggy is working closely with Financial Adviser jeff boyer to make changes to keep her money safe. Putting a Retirement Plan in place means making sure clients are going to have a successful Financial Plan in good, average, and poor markets. So essentially if youve got a Financial Plan thats going to work in all those environments, weve sort of taken the market out of the equation. Reporter leading up to retirement, boyer and other Financial Advisers agree it is important for investors to diversify assets. Minimize the tax impact. And maximize Social Security benefits. The dollars at stake between delaying Social Security to age 70 and accepting it early at 62 can add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars in additional benefits. Reporter working longer may also help jeggy avoid getting trapped by the danger zone. If i still love what im doing and im able to do it, i can see myself working to 70. Reporter jeggy plans to continue working, saving, and investing to secure her financial future. For nightly Business Report, im sharon epperso and that is nightly Business Report for tonight. Im sue herera. Thanks for watching. Im tyler mathisen. Happy easter, everybody. Have a great weekend. Well see you monday theme song playing its all right, its ok doesnt really matter if youre old and grey its all right, i say its ok listen to what i say its all right, doing fine doesnt really matter if the sun dont shine its all right, i say its ok were getting to the end of the day light turned on god bit jumpy, are we . Ive been freebasing espressos for the last two hours. It took ages to upload these photos. Your homes supposed to be your castle. Mines turned out to be a financial bloody liferaft. Youre doing the right thing. Letting a load of grubby strangers in my flat . Eyes on the prize. Think about the money