Acrosstheboard income tax reduction especially for middle income americans. My mission in the white house will be to make our economy work for everyone not just those at the top. Gwen but somehow they always returned to their war of words. Over trumps temperament. Over clintons emails. And even suspected russian hacking. Let me just say this in terms of the president ial campaign. This is an electronic watergate. Gwen drama on every front. Covering the week, molly balz, National Political molly ball National Political correspondent for the atlantic. Dan balz chief correspondent for the washington post. Jackie calmes National Correspondent for the New York Times. And Michael SchererWashington Bureau chief for time magazine. Award winning reporting and analysis, covering history as it happens. Live from our nations capital, this is Washington Week with gwen ifill. Funding for Washington Week is provided by once again, live from washington, moderator gwen ifill. Gwen good evening. Since no one at this table has ever seen an election quite like this, i thought wed try to divide tonights analysis into two categories. The conventional and the unconventional. The conventional includes the latest polls. An nbc news marist poll out this afternoon shows donald trump struggling in states he needs to win. Down by five points in florida. Down by nine points in North Carolina. Down by 13 in virginia. Down by 14 points in colorado. Trump campaigned in three of the four states just this week. Any number of polls now show clinton expanding her national lead. The results among many republicans have been panic which leads us to the unconventional. I asked senator Susan Collins this week why she decided to announce now she wont support him. Regrettably, i have concluded that there is not going to be a new donald trump. That hes incapable of saying hes sorry, of changing ks of learning, of growing. Gwen theres more. 50 Foreign Policy experts signed a letter saying they would not support the nominee. Another 07 gop activists and staffers signed another letter bemooning what they call trumps divisiveness, recklessness, and incompetence. Trump says his crowds tell another story and that voters will soon see the light on Hillary Clinton. Shes got the temperament of a loser. I have the temperament of a winner and we have to win again. We have to win again. Gwen this is time magazines cover this week. Meltdown. Michael, is it just that its august or is Something Else going on . Something more than august. Not a melt down like a nuclear reactor, melt down where it will never be rebuilt where it is contaminating everything around them but clearly a melt down. There is not a republican ive talked to this week that you can find whos not worried about whats happening. Those numbers, double digit deficits in swing states is a big deal. Donald trump in the last two and a half weeks has turned what should be a change election for him in which he says im going to change the country, a lot of people are unhappy, and make it better, into an election in which the status quo feels better, because he keeps saying things that make people nervous. And before he can make his arguments, which are compelling, we know from before its compelling, about trade, about manufacturing jobs, about globalism, Hillary Clintons record. He has to be able to demonstrate he can handle the job as president. At the moment he still feels like he can Campaign Like he did in the primaries, which is to be throwing bombs, making jokes, saying outlandish things that have a viral effect in the media to get his message out. Hes found over the last week its really undercutting. Gwen lets talk about the conventional piece. Dan, for instance it is not unconventional for a candidate to take advantage of resentment and people feeling like things have been taken from them. Certainly thats what donald trump is doing. Thats right. Michael is absolutely right. There is an environment out there that argues for change. Were at the end of two terms of a democratic president. Usually you get to that period. Its difficult for that party to hold the white house a third consecutive time. We know there is a lot of unhappiness. We know that the recovery has been quite unequal in its distribution of benefits. We know there is resentment about the political system. All of that is out there for donald trump to make the argument. But he keeps making the campaign about himself rather than those other issues and the degree to which it becomes a referendum on donald trump hes put at a disadvantage. Gwen molly, it is not unusual for a candidate like Hillary Clinton did to get a post convention bounce and its only obvious, we dont know what, how firm that how firm that bounce is, how enduring that bounce is. I think republicans as michael said are beginning to fear that its more than a bounce. And that this is the new normal. Because trump got a very small bounce out of his convention. It was immediately erased by the democratic convention. All he has done since then is exacerbate the lines of think about the backtoback convention messaging. The week before Donald Trumps convention there is a massive terrorist attack in france. Theres been this drum beat of shootings and attacks both abroad and on our shores that plays into his message and his full message is look at how scary the world is. Theres crime to be afraid of. Theres terrorism to be afraid of. The following week Hillary Clinton comes on stage and says theres something even scarier than that. Donald trump. And the way that trump has behaved ever since, his erratic pronouncements, his inability to back off any controversial statement, has only underscored her message in a way that i think perpetuates the impressions people took away from that democratic convention. Gwen does that message, jackie, also allow Hillary Clinton to make a run at some of these republicans who are nervous or as Susan Collins said she still isnt supporting Hillary Clinton but she just cant support him . Well, definitely allows her to make a run at them and to, you see in terms of conventional unconventional, they both gave speeches this week on the economy. And, you know, he is giving this speech, trying to appeal to the working people. There was nothing in his speech. It was completely conventional by old republican standards. And he claimed that it helped the working class. She was able to come back in her speech and point out all he ways that it did not. By conserve tiff analysts at the Tax Foundation the top 5 would have a 1 increase in income after taxes under Donald Trumps plan and the middle class would be less than 1 . Yet they both gwen they said they were speaking to the middle class. Right. And she doesnt seem to be moving she had to move left with the challenge from Bernie Sanders. She doesnt seem to be overtly moving toward the center in terms of her message. But it was interesting to me in her economic speech where she was very strong in saying she is against the Trans Pacific partnership, which, you know, she is still trying to get beyond the suspicion that she is secretly for it. But she, at the same time, did not have she had a very pro trade message generally. She devoted a good amount of time to extoling the benefits of free trade. Despite her, you know, the takeaway line is about anti t. T. P. So she is trying to stay appealing to her base, but shes got that. So now shes moving more to the independents. Gwen thats whats not happening on the republican side, which is moving beyond the base to the independents or to the other party. Well, thats the thing donald trump has always said. That it doesnt matter if he divides republicans because he is going to more than make up for that by attracting disaffected democrats and independents and bringing new people into the electorate. Gwen keeps saying hell get Bernie Sanders people. Exactly. We saw this big group form this week for hillary. No democrats for trump group has been formed. Partly because the campaign isnt organized enough to put it together but also as jackie pointed out rhetorically he is not doing anything. Rhetorically or in a policy sense. He has made gestures through this campaign of policies that would break out of some of the republican orthodoxy in a way that might actually be quite appealing to some of those disaffected democrats, but in terms of the policies he is rolling out hes not going there. As jackie pointed out, hillary now has the luxury of not having to move to the center. She can stay on the left in terms of policy and republicans are still flocking to her because theyre so alarmed by trump. We spoke to him on tuesday for a cover story, and he said, yeah. People are telling me, im talking to lots people, listening to them, theyre telling me to be nicer, to be calmer. And not to Campaign Like i did in the primaries. And then he sort of paused and said, but i liked how i was campaigning in the primaries more. So whats happening is he is sort of being betrayed by his own instincts. His own instinct has always driven him. Back in november when i spoke with him, he said my dad used to say i had a great feel for location. He was talking about real estate. But he said its more than that. I knew immigration would be the issue. I knew terrorism would be the issue. He was really crediting all of his success to his gut instinct. And that gut instinct hasnt changed but the electorate he is trying to appeal to has changed. And he hasnt been able to internalize that yet. I know the Republican Party, Reince Priebus, the chairman, other people in his campaign have been trying. His children working on him, talking to him, trying to explain the reality of this race. I think its likely that at some point in the next two weeks assuming these polls dont turn around by themselves he becomes more disciplined. The question is, is it too late . But if he becomes more disciplined he is not true to himself. When he read his economic speech it was to use his word boring. He was just plowing through it reading off a teleprompter. It is not what people come to see. It ofedse him to be boring. Right. It ofedse him to be boring. He likes to keep things stirred up. In part of the conversation this week about what he said about the Second Amendment people, no. This was about the isis, being the cofounder of isis. He was given several opportunities to walk that back and he wouldnt do it. And beyond that, he also said, look. The way you talk about it, nobody hears it. The way i talk about it, people hear about it and they talk about it more. Gwen then today he said one more time that he was just being sarcastic and then in the same speech said, well, maybe not that sarcastic. Almost at war with those in front of you. He is there with Reince Priebus the head of the Republican Party who had to be just dying inside. It goes to the point of at what point we just have to stop, they have to just stop thinking that hes going to change and that, you know, the republicans will say to me, well, theres one thing he wants more than anything. Its to win. If this is what it takes to win hell change. Gwen lets talk about paul ryan, an example of a man who won by 70 points or something in his home district and last week we were talking about how donald trump is only grudgingly deciding last friday night he finally did. Turns out paul ryan didnt need donald trump. A lot of candidates say they do better without donald trump. Maybe that is the turning point were waiting for. To the melt down metaphor, the nuclear melt down. Not yet. Lets say it is though. A lot of republicans are wondering how far the contagion spreads and who it affects. You notice that even in that rally where he was endorsing paul ryan, paul ryan was not on stage with donald trump. Neither was ron johnson the senator from wisconsin who was on the ballot this fall. When donald trump was in pennsylvania this fall you didnt see senator pat toomey anywhere near there. You see a lot of these endorsers in name only who are saying well technically im going to vote for him but theyre getting as far from him as possible both physically and the philosophical space, you see them denouncing a lot of his statements. Because even though there is a lot of evidence voters in these states are willing to vote against trump but for a Senate Candidate they are going to need that ticket splitting to old up in an unprecedented way. There will be a moment and were not quite there yet in which the Republican Party as a whole and all of the candidates have to decide do i run in a sense actively against trump . Simply making the argument trump is going to lose. You have to protect the republican majorities in the house and senate. This happened in 1996 but very late in the campaign. It happened in late october. It could happen much earlier if trump doesnt signal and show that he is able to turn things around. Gwen isnt there a very specific brand of Trump Success . Trump specific success that candidates out there or other people could latch on to and get some benefit out of . That is the best people like mike pence were making, Newt Gingrich was making, Chris Christie was making though theyre not on anybodys ballot. I think theyre afraid of annoying or angering trump supporters. Theyre so loyal and not a majority of the electorate unfortunately for trump. A good chunk of the people that you need to win in any swing state if you are a republican candidate. So the fear is that if you begin to actively campaign against trump you anger those people and they then wont vote for you. Right now there is just none of that glow trump is imparting to anybody else. In wisconsin where trump is well behind paul ryan falls about 50 in terms of favorability. Rob portman, marco rubio in florida. Kelly ayotte in New Hampshire all pulling ahead of donald trump right now in their states. There just hasnt been any evidence of that yet. That broadening. Now, if, imagine an alternate universe where donald trump comes out of the convention incredibly disciplined and doesnt make jokes about the second amenityment people or invite russia to hack Hillary Clintons servers. You could conceivably see that at this point what we would be talking about are Hillary Clintons emails. We would be talking about economic frustration in this country. We would be talking about the debate over trade agreements and whether weve gone too far in terms of globalization. And in that scenario, there could be an identity for the Republican Party that they could gather around and move forward but we dont have anything like that. We did see a sign today in the state polls that have come out that weve been focusing on these very vulnerable republican senators. But senator richard burr who is not really on anybodys radar, republican senator from North Carolina, down two points in a poll in North Carolina for the first time. This is a state where donald trump is behind nine points. It raises the question to people about the drag. Gwen today Hillary Clinton released her tax returns in part to goad him more into releasing his own. As we talk about an unconventional year i wonder whether that matters and resonates at all with people or whether Something Else has to happen for people to care about that really. I think trump has made a bet and it may not be a bad bet that those kinds of conventional things that president ial candidates are expected to do dont matter that much to the general public in an environment like this and that he can simply get through this campaign without having to do that. Its not clear if he loses this it is it is not clear because he didnt put out tax returns. There is a history of everybody doing it, an expectation of transparency we all put on candidates but i dont know trump is necessarily wrong in concluding that this is not a fatal decision on his part. Well, i think the other big bet hes making is it would be worse for him to put out his tax returns because it could very well jim stewart had the column in the New York Times today about how likely it is he paid zero in federal taxes or even claimed a loss. Gwen what is the flip side for Hillary Clinton . What unconventional thing can she do to allow her to take advantage of some of that . Never have a press conference. Oh, that. We do see her running a very safe conventional campaign in terms of everything from strategy to policies, same old states on the map with maybe a couple additions. The same old proposals, you know, out sourcing bad, minimum wage good. And i think there was a worry on the part of democrats at some earlier juncture. That she wouldnt be exciting enough and the way donald trump tends to suck up the air time might work to her detriment by not giving her a sort of elbow into the news cycle. I think democrats are less worried about that today because they see the effect all the coverage is having on donald trump. Maybe more worried about the fact that their candidate and the candidate theyre running against are both massively unpopular. Again, i think less worried now than a few weeks ago just because of the way the polls seem to be turning. Shes not a good candidate and never has been. But if the question is are we safe with her as president could she handle the job, being boring and bland, the clip you ran earlier saying i want an economy that works for everyone. Its never worked for everyone. It is the worst political cliche you could offer. Thats why we used it. So much of what she says is like that. Its the blandest, most broadly appealing pab lum they can come up with. And if she was running against a strong candidate that would be a problem but if she is running against someone people are worried about being stable the person who sounds like every other politician youve ever heard and never really liked that much is maybe not a bad thing. Another unconventional thing. You could not turn on the television in cleveland or philadelphia at the conventions or while watching the olympics and not see a Hillary Clinton ad. We have seen goose egg ads from donald trump. Not a dime spent. Is that part of the strategy or just that he doesnt want to spend the money . He clearly doesnt want to spend the money. Got the money to spend. I think its indifference. I think it is his belief he has found a different way to communicate with people and clearly during the primaries he was correct about that. He was able to dominate the conversation. Able to get all of his points across. He was able to smother everybody else simply by using, you know, television and cable. He has one person attacking only him this time. You know, the question we cant answer at this point is, are these polls moving because or baufs the sing things trump is doing to himself . Im sure the Clinton Campaign will say the advertising is moving numbers. But that is an unanswerable question. A lot of interesting Political Science has been done looking at political advertising spending. It doesnt really matter what is in the ads as long as youre basically spending about the same amount on both sides. The only time advertising really has a dramatic effect in terms of moving numbers is when one side can spend much more. In an average race. I think there is a strong Political Science element. All those ads are being run and are about his character, qualifications, ability to handle the job as president , to say things that wont offend your children, theyre speaking right to the competency issues. I think it just gets people thinking about that stuff in their head. Imagine youre, during the olympics you see that ad and then an ad about the Clinton Foundation or out sourcing of jobs to mexico, the stuff trump wants to talk about. The viewers brains just wouldnt be focused on that topic. Part of the issue is do those ads, it keeps a ceiling on him. And prevents him from getting voters he really needs. The numbers are really stunning. Donald trump is out spent 52 million to zero in Television Ads. That is not counting the 30 million Hillary Clintons allies are also spending on her behalf. That is a crazy number. Donald trump put out a very confusing statement about his fundraising at the time of the fundraising deadline a couple weeks ago but we havent seen the actual report that would tell us what he is spending that money on and where it is going. Weve heard him throughout the primaries speculate about the inefficacy of Television Ads saying they didnt hurt him in the primaries. He did say in the interview with time this week that he was going to start spending soon. I dont know whether it will be significant or substantial. Gwen he also said hed definitely do all three debates, which well talk about soon in the webcast because we are out of time for now. Thanks, everybody. We keep yaking about all of this online. Thats the Washington Week webcast extra. If youre loving the olympics be sure to check out our piece on the athletes who used olympic gold as a spring board for politics of all things. Find that at pbs. Org Washington Week. Keep up with daily developments with me and Judy Woodruff over at the cbs newshour. Well see you here next week on Washington Week. Good night. [captioning performed by the National Captioning Institute which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] hello and welcome to kqed newsroom. Tonight, the trump factor in california politics. And the legislative countdown is on in sacramento. Plus the struggle to find enough teachers as students get ready to head back to school. How two bay Area Middle School sisters won a global competition with an Innovative App aimed at eliminating waste. First this week jurors in San Francisco found utility giant pg e guilty of six criminal charges for its role in a deadly explosion six years ago in san bruno. The jury found that pg e obstructed the federal investigation into the explosion of one much its pipelines. The blast killed eight people and destroyed 38 homes