Long time to catch up. Gwen and it wont be the last time politics gets in the way of reality. From health care to debt ceiling to immigration debate, its Midterm Election time. The campaign is a time when you talk about contrast. Listen, theres widespread doubt about whether this administration can be trusted to enforce our laws. Gwen how are the reds and blue sides of the argument shaping up. Covering the week, Jim Tankersly of the washington post, janet hook of the wall street journal. Beth beth of National Journal and Doyle Mcmanus of the los angeles times. Awardwinning reporting and analysis, covering history as it happens. Live from our nations capital, this is Washington Week with gwen ifill. Corporate funding for Washington Week is provided by we went out and asked people a simple question. How old is the oldest person youve known . We gave people a sticker and had them show us. A lot of us have known someone whos lived well into their 90s and thats great but even though were living longer, one thing that hasnt changed, the official retirement age. How do you make sure you have the money you need to enjoy all f these years . Additional Corporate Funding for Washington Week is provided by boeing. Initial funding is additional funding is provided by the annenberg foundation, the corporation for public broadcasting and by contributions to pbs stations from viewers like you. Thank you. Once again, live from washington, moderator gwen ifill. Gwen good evening. To get a sense of whats happening with the u. S. Economy it helps to be able to following the follow the bouncing ball, from jobs numbers to a correcting stock market to a new fed chair with ripples being felt around the world. The answers to the questions this uncertainty raises will affect our pockets book, our leaders and our national debate. This was the president today. Event though the economy has been growing for four years now and weve been adding jobs for , whats still y true is those at the top of the Economic Pyramid are doing better than ever but the average americans salaries havent his than a very long time. Gwen lets begin with january jobs report. There was news in it for everybody. On the good side, the Unemployment Rate fell, down to 6. 6 , and we gained jobs, 113,000, but that was fewer than we had hoped to get and were forecast to get and we still, as the president said, dont have any real wage growth. Inflation was about the same last year as salary increases, same last month. Were stuck in an economy where workers arent getting ahead. Gwen if youre the congress and president , what flashing light do we see . I think its a yellow. It says caution. We need more help probably. It would be great if the economy had reached a point where it was growing faster and weve seen better Growth Numbers in the last couple of quarters and congress can say we can step out of the way and think about other things. Still 113,000 jobs a month isnt enough to put the 10 Million People still in this economy who want to work and cant find a job back to work. One of the things weve had to learn is sometimes when the Unemployment Rate comes down its not always for a good reason. Its balls people are leaving the labor force ask. That what were seeing here . Actually, its not. This time the Household Survey showed a huge increase in people in the labor force and people getting jobs so were seeing a drop for a good reason this month. Well have to see if its a sustained reason. Hopefully well see more of that to come. This report is kind of a welcome mat for janet yellen, coming in right now. How does this affect the economy shes going to work on . I think janet yellen has to look at this report and see probably nothing thats going to change the direction of the fed policy right now, which is tapering off their asset purchases, which has been stimulating the economy. On the other hand, there are absolutely questions about the threshold that the fed has set. They had said when we get to 6 unemployment, were going to art thinking about other things. Were almost there and the economy still doesnt like this look that great. Are there actions that the president or congress could address to some of the deficiencies that the report pointed out . For one, were still seeing a drop in glovet employment. The private sector increased faster than the headline would suggest. Theres still room for fiscal policy to get looser, for the government to spend a little bit more money or to find ways to put more money back to work. If you believe that is a positive force for the economy, you shouldnt worry about that overheating. We are watching the economy mostly by looking at our if you have a little money in your stock portfolio. If you dont you cant get into the job market and a low wage ener, youre looking at it in a completely different way. These two extremes in the economy, how are you reading any of this . One thing weve seen in Consumer Confidence numbers is the people who are making more money feel good and the people making less done. This doesnt feel like a recovery for huge swaths of american workers. People who are out of people in jocks but are afraid to leave them and people in jobs, maybe they like them but they havent had a raise in a long time. I think well see more of that until we get a lot faster job growth. Full employment is the thing that lifts everybody and were nowhere near that gwen is that why we hear republicans and democrats talk so much about mobility, inequality, closing the gap. Opportunity. Gwen youve heard them all by now and i wonder if thats why everybody is talking about it. Its a bunch of different ways. Theyre all Different Things but theyre different ways of saying hey, things arent Getting Better better for me, the majority of americans. We go back to fed or congress, they need to be thinking about how do we help people all across the economic spectrum and not just folks who own stocks who have seen big gains . Gwen lets move on. Hard to remember a time when a normal illinois dry and dusty report from the venerable Congressional Budget Office created such a stir, even in washington where we like such reports. But this weeks cost and benefit assessments of the Affordable Care act unleashed the political dogs. The report declared that there will be two million fulltime workers by 2017 and that the Health Care Law is the reason why. But how you read those numbers had a lot to do with how you feel about obama care. They estimate up to two million fewer jocks will be created as a result of obama care and the tragedy of it all, in addition to the loss of jobs is you have once again an estimate from c. B. O. That when all is said and done, you still have 30 million unininsured. With obamacare, no matter what it is, their goal is to repeal it. We have the c. B. O. Report which rightfully says that people shouldnt have job lock. We live in a country where there should be free agency. Gwen i love that no surprise that Mitchell Mcconnell and harry reid dont agreement one says its disaster and one says its job lock, a new term for me what is true about the c. B. O. Report . You got it right when you said this is a big dusty old report. This was in the context of the c. B. O. s annual outlook on the budget and economy, a real try as dust kind of report. But there was this eye popping number that said that over the course of the next decade as a result of the Health Care Law, the size of the work force will shrink by about 2. 5 million the equivalent of 2. 5 million jobs. Thats not jobs, thats the size of the work force, the number of people working, that number of hours. The republicans grab on that and say oh, that means that 2. 5 million jobs are going to be lost. Actually the report said the reason the work force shrinks is because with the new availability of Affordable HealthCare Health Insurance outside of the workplace, many more people will leave threar job rather than stay in the job just to hold on to their Health Insurance. Gwen many of the low wage workers. Rights but if you were 62 and wanted to retire early, you say i cant do it until i qualify for medicare, people like that might choose to dial back their hours or leave their job. Thats the phenomenon known as job lock. People who dont want to leave because of anywhere Health Insurance. Goiment but if they can find a way to come back to it they will and thats what we saw happen a little bit. Sure, they really seized on this and i think the white house tried to explain what this report really meant but like we have seen repeatedly on obamacare, they dont quite know how to explain it in a way that people will get it. And so you have the white house trying to explain it and then a lot of silence from other democrats, from those in congress, from folks who are running for governor. Just a reluctance to get into that debate. And beth, its so true that this is just the latest example in the rollout of obamacare where the democrats have been and the white house have been kind of caught flatfooted by the way its rolled out. The glitches in the website, the fact that independent individual insurance policies were being cut off. One bad piece of news after the other and theyve had a very hard time stepping back and saying fine, these are the benefits of the program. You dont hear so much of that. Right and i actually looked into that to see is there anyone out there touting success snow showers there are an estimated four Million People that have Health Insurance now that didnt have it. Gwen were not seeing shows stories. Were not. You see them online but some nonpromplets but you dont see candidates or the participants putting money behind it on television. Isnt it early for health care ads or any avepeds like that . It is but americans for prosperity, the new big super pak of the cycle, funded by the cok brothers jumped on the band wagon quickly in october. Once the law launched and we had all those website troubles, they saw an opportunity and that group has spent 27 million just since october. Which thats unprecedented. Gwen and is this approach a political approach or a policy approach . Which is to say, do these ads and do these efforts, do they say dont vote for this guy because you cant trust him, obama is terrible. Do they say this is whats wrong, that is whats wrong . A lot of these outside ads beth is referring to are oriented towards framing how people view with law itself and then associating a candidate with it. Probably the more interesting and potentially damaging thing is that the democratic ads run related to obamacare, as often as not if its a vulnerable democrat in a swing state theyre distancing themselves from the program. Or one congresswoman in a swing state in arizona running an ad saying i blew the whistle on this awful website or a case last week of where obama got this message in his face when he had a bunch of House Democrats up to the white house and one stood up and said i think heads should roll over this. And thats democrats. Democrats a sounding a lot like republicans. Let me go back to the c. B. O. Report. I think we all got that its not jobs that are being lost. Its people deciding to leave the labor force and some democrats are trying to spin that as a wonderful new freedom. You can retire early, take care of your kids but there was something in there about disincentives for low income people that might cause some people to not want to work so they could qualify for medicaid or not even look for a better job. Is there a problem there in terms of where the incentives are . I dont think the c. B. O. Report got into motivation but did point out that obamacare provides subsidies for lower income people and if youre about to make enough income that you no longer qualify for the subts dis, you might want to dial back your hours and income to qualify and thats kind of true with all needsbased federal programs. I do think that the broader picture its kind of a wonky but interesting report. The Health Care Law changed a huge segment of our economy and this is the first really good look at the many ways that it did and the incentives for work and for how long you work are just one of them. If those incentive break points end up being in the wrong place, congress could come back and fix it, right . They could but break points, you could have them everywhere. Gwen im curious about that it seems to me in a report like this this was good news to be had if you wanted to take it that way. Does the administration not know a report like that is coming out . I was astonished at how prepared the republicans were to get at that point . Theyve been saying this is bad for the economy. Now they have to plug in the number. This is an argument theyve been making for months. Gwen lets assume for a moment that we know this is a big problem for the democrats. Their polls show that people dont like this, whether theyre right on the details or not. What evidence have you seen that theres a pushback under way or even an erkt five effort to change the subject . Theres definitely an effort to change the subject. The democrats being attacked right now on obamacare are not necessarily responding with likeminded attacks. Actually, the law is doing that theyre talking about medicare instead, social security. Gwen theyre not talking about preexisting conditions or keeping your kids on your Insurance Plan . No, theyre talking about the minimum wage. Issues they can feel they can go on the offense on republicans adds opposed to playing defense on obama kaye care. I think theres general consensus that if the referendum is about obamacare it doesnt bode well for them. Whats the bigger issue, obamacare or just president obama . In some of the swing states where theyre having to defend obamacare it is kind of dvend defending obama by proxy. David pryor the senator run for reelection. Gwen mark prior. Yes, hes in a state that benefits keyedingly exceedingly from the Obamacare Program but obama is so nparticular that there he unpopular there haye he probably has to keep his distance by association. Some of the state with low insurance rates are the ones that have been most resistant. Gwen last week we talked about the president using the pen and the phone and what he seems to be focusing more on rather than defending his signature domestic fliment is to change the subject. Decided when c. V. S. To stop selling tobacco in their stores. Theyre getting someone else to do the work they know they cant get passed in congress. Am i overreading that . Even in the campaign the president spoke little about obamacare. The one place you did see advertising about the Health Care Law was on Spanish Language media. At that time, this was before the bumpier rollout. Support was very high in the piss span Hispanic Community and that may be the one place we do see ads this cycle. Gwen well be watching to see if anybody ever finally defender it. Weve talked about the politics of the economy and health care. That brings us to the politics of politics. What will this falls Midterm Elections be about . Weve set it up, doyle. Youve covered it all. Its going to be about the politics of the economy and health care and a couple of other issues too. Its nottable just hearing this discussion, we havent been debating high policy, how to fix obama care. You take these unemployment numbers, could we goose the economy no, this is all about the next nine months and a campaign and how each of the two participants can position itself properly to look a little better and even though all of our viewers know this already, we have to remember the context and that is that its a very long shot for the democrats to take back the house of representatives where they need 17 seats but its not a long shot for republicans to win the net six seats to take the senate. Gwen so the rubber is hitting the road. Jims question has been answered, its not too soon. Where is it hid hitting the road and how . In a lot of senate races all over the country, beth mentioned the ads already running in some states. Ill give an example, north carolina, where that group has already spent 7 million on ads on obama care. The last time kate haggan ran for the senate six years ago she spent about 8 million in total. A group opposing her already spent 7 million. The amount of money were talking about is huge. Let me stop and look at the republicans for a minute. Theyre having a really interesting debate on what their position ought to be. Started the year thinking obamacare. All we have to do is say obamacare. But theres a debate in the party, maybe thats not quite enough. For example, you look at the polls, most people dont like obamacare but they dont want to repeal it, they want to fix its it. Now republicans are saying were going to present an alternative to obamacare. Theres already one in the senate. The house leadership says theyre working on one in the house. Thats a problem because they keep dividing over it. The economy, David Winston will tell you when they won in 2010 they won because of obamacare. Actually, they won because of the economy. People didnt think obama was doing enough to get jobs back so theyre trying to come up with a message on economy and finally, theyre trying to shake loose om that image of being obstructionists. That image they got by shutting the government down last fall. One issue i thought they would pursue is Immigration Reform where did you get that idea . Just last week then john boehner came out after their party retreat and said these our principles and yesterday he pulled the plug and said maybe not. That was supposed to be one chunk of this new constructive ositive alternatives to choose and the problem is that john bane earn ran into a buzz saw of opposition in his own party. In the house they never wanted to tackle immigration certainly before republican primaries because there are a lot of people in the Republican Base who hate the idea of Immigration Reform. It turns out that a lot of republicans didnt want to tackle it this year at all. So boehner came out and said we cant do it because we can never trust this president to enforce a bill if we passed it. Gwen he pivoted from talking about the issues to talking about the president. Theres kind of a problem with that position, though, because if you dont trust this president to enforce an immigration bill this year, then it means you cant trust him this year or the year after. Its not solving the republicans problem on immigration yet. Who is the more polltested persuasive message on the economy right now, the republicans or democrats, or anybody . We all overthink this a little bit. The problem on both the economy and obamacare is easy for the republicans because people are grouchy about the economy and theyre grouchy about obamacare. Their challenge is do we do more . The democrats have a tougher challenge thats more interesting and that ask what is our message on these . You ran that clip of president obama. He is doing something a little risky. He is beginning to say the economy is better now but its not better for you so give me credit for the better part and ill try and get to work on the other part. He tried to do that in 2010. It didnt work. Where the democrats are moving on that gwen what does he have to loose at this point . Hes stuck with it and theyre moving towards this basket of fairness, equality, opportunity issues. Very clintonian. Its no accident that bill clinton was the motivational speaker and coach at the Senate Democrats retreat. Gwen i think ive lived through this before. Whenever theyre in trouble midterms, they bring in bill clinton. He says wake up, democrats. Thank you, everybody. We have to stop but the conversation will onyewu continue online where well talk about the debt ceiling debate that never seems to go away. It streams live at 8 30 p. M. Eastern or catch it all week long at pbs. Org Washington Week. Also online, eread my take on journalism, heroism and sherlock. Well see you right here next week on Washington Week. Good night. Good night. C orporate funding for Washington Week is provided by we know why were here. To chart a greener path in the air and in our factories. To find cleaner, more efficient ways to power flight. And harness our technology for new energy solutions. Around the globe, the people of boeing are working together to build a better tomorrow. Thats why were here. 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