Transcripts For KQED PBS NewsHour 20161109

Election day 2016, the historic end to a long campaign. Hillary clintons corruption is on a scale we have never seen before. Who will voters elect as the next president of the United States. He thinks belittling women makes him a bigger man. He has shown us who he is, let us on tuesday show him who we are. When we win on november 8th, and elect a Republican Congress, we will be able to immediately repeal and replace obamacare. I will be a president for democrats, republicans and independentents. For those who vote for me and for those who vote against me. What wells will we learn from the voters . Good evening, it is 8 00 p. M. Eastern, 5 00 on the west coast and welcome to special pbs newshour coverage of Election Night 2016. Im judy woodruff. And im hari sreenivasan. We look forward to her return as soon as possible. Sreenivasan polls just closed in alabama, connecticut, washington d. C. , florida, illinois, maine, maryland, massachusetts, mississippi and mo. Woodruff polls have also just closed in New Hampshire, new jersey, oklahoma, pennsylvania, rode island and the state of tennessee. We do have at least one projected winner. Thats this washington d. C. With a three electoral votes. Hillary clinton no surprise at all. A very very blue district of columbia. We also have a projected winner in delaware, Hillary Clinton the winner in that blue state. Maryland with a 10 electoral votes Hillary Clinton projected the winner there. Massachusetts, projected, Hillary Clinton projected the winner with 11 electoral votes expil thillinois the state clins vote 20 electoral votes she is also projected to be the winner there. Sreenivasan within the last hour or so we learned donald trump is the projected issue in West Virginia with five electoral votes and indiana with 11 electoral votes, kentucky with eight ask we can report donald trump is the projected winner in South Carolina with 89 electoral votes. Electoral 9 electoral votes. We have some ruts on the senate side. For those Crucial Senate seats that will determine the balance of power there. The democrats hoping to take control. The republicans doing everything they can to prevent that from happening. Sreenivasan there are a few house races were keeping an eye on but at this hour it looks like republicans been poised to keep their majority. Were also watching a number of governor races plus a handful of ballot initiatives. In New Hampshire, weve got a few other tapes that are probably going to cue u queue ur in the program. Considering where we are right now just the number of states we have, mark shields, anything out of the ordinary. No. The blue wall is holding. Delaware i think is the eighth best state for been barack obama, al gores best state. So were talking about states that were expected to vote democratic and have not disappointed Hillary Clinton tonight. In kentucky is a classic example of the democrats on coal and to be. All those good issues that have gone right to the heart of kentuckys existence. Woodruff also the first wave of states where the polls closed at 7 00, 7 30 seemed to favor the republicans just because of where they are, what they are. These were seeing, were now seeing states where the democrats have had. Should be doing better thats exactly right. Were really going to wait on the big states weve been talking about for so long, North Carolina, florida and ohio. Virginia closed a little while ago, about an hour ago. I would expect to see we get those results in sometimes soon. Those are going to be really the big states that were waiting for that are going to tell us really the direction that this election is going in. The ones that weve announced so far, nothing out of the ordinary. Woodruff Stuart Stevens is something who was sitting with the Mitt Romney Campaign four years ago. What is the Campaign Thinking at this point of the night when the predictable state results are coming in. You have more information than everybody else. The president ial candidates and the romney campaigns and the Bush Campaigns you have model counties you will be looking at for your numbers. Usually you would have someone at those courthouses so they can get the numbers ahead of what was being put on the networks. Actually now with twitter, you see where twitter can sometimes can do better than your own people. You have your modeling and youll have certain votes, targets that you have to get in each of these areas and youll know pretty quickly if youre hitting them or not. Woodruff not that youing nor these states reliably in your column anyways, you look at those numbers. Particularly closest where you ran campaigns. Look at connecticut, donald trump wins at connecticut. It will be very interesting to see those numbers there. They probably saw something and made you think they wanted to go there. If he does better there, that would be indicative. Woodruff heres another state we can call, this is a state that again no surprise. Donald trump projected winner in mississippi with its six electoral votes. Were still waiting on, i guess we do have two other calls to make, oklahoma the sooner state and tennessee, the volunteer state. Donald trump declared or projected to be the winner there. As we said a few minutes ago, Hillary Clinton projected to take delaware and rhode island. So we are beginning to get a picture from these early states that as amy just said the ones were all waiting for sitting here talking about, weve been talking about for weeks, theyre not in yet. Sreenivasan car nell belcher is the time when you were on the i dont know campaign is this on the Obama Campaign is this a good investment where you put your resources. Yes. To that point the clinton people like what theyre seeing and parts of pennsylvania right now another one of the blue states that trump has to take. Hes got to take a blue state, right, another blue state out there. Theres talk now and this will be amazing that the turnout in philadelphia may exceed 208 which is a record. So they have over 70 turnout. Another thing the campaigns do they put rallies in places for protest. Woodruff not just a coincident. Hillary clinton was there with jon bon jovi. David brooks, what are you looking this hou at this early e night. What strikes me is the gender gap. Gender gap in some places is just gigantic. In virginia for example, among women who are 53 of the electoral, clintons winning by 19 points. Among men trump is only winning by five. Thats just a big number and its hearted to see how he possibly wins virginia if these numbers are accurate. North carolina is a little different so shes winning among women by 14 and hes winning by men by 12 and north care looks to be a closer state. Woodruff what were referring to are these exit polls, these interviews with voters that are done throughout the day as people leave their polling places. Amy walter its probably time for a quick refresher course how those things get put together and turned into a projection. Its always dangerous to take the first waves, these are polls that they get from going to specific precincts and they interview voters and then over the course of the night they actually put the data in, the real raw votes and that readjusts the number that youre seeing. Now what the exit polls are supposed to do is give you sort of a guide map where it looks like this is going. Some things could certainly change over the course of the night but it gives you a sense of the vote is really moving in a dramatic direction or not. So in many of these states youre seeing nothing that really sticks out particularly as except for as david pointed out in virginia where the gender gap is pretty substantial. And draw gillespie do any of these strikes you. This is lower than the normal gap, about 8 to 10 Percentage Points. Thats striking because because of the Hollywood Tape and Donald Trumps treatment of women, that there would be more animo amongst female voters for donald trump and they would take that out in the polls. Im not seeing that. The other thing thats jumping out to me are Hillary Clinton totals among African Americans. Theyre not looking at turnout, theyre looking at what voters are saying. We were expecting that she would get obama numbers of the African American voters. Shes getting relative normal African American vote percentages relative to other Democratic Candidates. Shes in the high 80s and low 90s. That is unusual. Well see whether or not that holds over time. It doesnt look like shes getting in many cases 95 of the African American vote. Woodruff one state or a number of states. We have ohio, virginia, indiana here, where theres a large enough African American population. Shes getting 90 of the black volt and not upwards. Also the gender gap there which was present in 2012 as well. Woodruff mark slealdz, democrats shields democrats have counted heavily on the African American vote. They have. And as was pointed out earlier, it was the cataclysm of 1964 that led the democrats to become the party of African American voters. And that and the Voting Rights act ove of 1964. Just in defense of exit polls. The reason why people like me chairish thecherish them is youo winner bias. You ask people who you voted foe last time. People say ordinarily theyll say i voted for the winnernt though they might not have. What you have is people who actually voted. You dont have a sample. Weve got actual people just coming out fresh in their mind and they tell you and it is a great, if it is a representative sample, it is great great data to have. All right. We have some senate races to call at 11 minutes after 8 00 on the east coast in the state of florida, marco rubio has won reelection to another term. This is somebody who said he wasnt going to run. He ran for president but came back and changed his mind and said i am going to run again. And hes defeated the challenger democrat patrick murphy. In illinois the democrat tammy, the projected winner that is a pick up for the democrats. She took the state away from mark who was running for reelection. Thats something we can talk about in a few minutes. Mark experienced a stroke and was out of work for a year while he recoup rated and came back to run and hes now been defeated. In connecticut, richard blumenthal, the democrat is the projected winner. That mans hes won for a second term and in maryland democrat Chris Van Hollen the projected winner thats filling the seats of one of the women in the United States senate barbara mick mull key the charge es female senator in the u. S. Senate. We move on to oklahoma where we have another republican winner, James Langford the projected winner winning another term defeating the democrat. So hari. Sreenivasan were going to head up to new york city where clinton and trump have their Election Night headquarters. Were at the Trump Campaign event in midtown. John yang is with the Clinton Campaign at the jaft javitz. Whats the mood now. Were in the Political Capital of the world in a moment. Within a few blocks this is midtown manhattan on the west side. A few blocks from me is trump tower where donald trump is. We expect he will be coming over here sometime tonight. A few blocks in the other direction, john is with the Hillary Clinton gathering. Right now its fairly subdued here. There are a lot of people Milling Around behind me. This is a relatively small venue actually the smallest venue i think ive ever seen for this kind of gathering. Its subdued at the moment partly because of the size, partly because its early but probably mostly perhaps for the reason youve all just been talking about is that so far whats been happening are the expected results. Weve heard some applause at some of the early results at places like kentucky. Obviously theres some pause because were just getting something behind me. Theres some pause at some of the states that have not been called early on like georgia, like virginia, like pennsylvania. People here that im talking to, continue to feel very confident thats what theyre saying. The places they havent called like virginia, pennsylvania, they have said from the beginning and they said to me even a little earlier today from the Trump Campaign, very challenging places. But they are hopeful sreenivasan sreenivasan is it Trump Supporters from new york or do you see people from around the country that showed up perhaps part of the organization throughout the campaign. Well as i said, this is such a small place that this is a little unusual in that sense. This is an invited group of people. Its kind of an interesting change from the rallies around the country. I just came here from raleigh, North Carolina and a rally in souix city iowa. Of course donald trump had been going around gathering many thousands of people. The ones i was in was slightly smothered than that. This is a small venue, mostly invited guests. People from around the country, people from the campaign, people who have been involved. Woodruff its interesting, jeff, they decided to call it a celebration. And as you said sort of deliberately chose a smaller venue rather than what you would normally see on an Election Night. We think back to grant park in chicago in 2008 with barack obama. This is not grant park its not even where john is over at the Javitz Center not that far away. Donald trump wanted a small venue. This is a very large new york hotel, a very large ball room. And anybody thats been to a conference of any size knows they can make the room any size they want. This was deliberatelyion to the size it is. Im surrounded by hundreds of fellow journalists in the media, camera crews over where. You can see behind me several hundreds, hundreds, not thousands of Trump Supporters here behind me. Woodruff Jeffrey Brown holding down the fort at the trump party in new york city. Well be coming back to you throughout the night. As jeff just mentioned, john yang is not too far away over the clinton headquarters. John, tell us about whats happening there. Judy it sounds like its a little more lively here. They are keeping up the energy, theyre pumping in music, theyre showing the network, a big cheer went up when one of the networks called illinois for Hillary Clinton. Theyre also showing Hillary Clinton Campaign Commercials on a big screen here. Sort of the greatest hits of the campaign. Thats also certainly keeping the energy level up here. They are also cheering as they see raw totals come in. They are keeping a very close eye on here is florida. The Clinton Campaign Officials Say they really dont see how donald trump could get to 270 without florida. And florida is a place they feel very good about from their field reports today and also last week they were bally hoeing the fact even before the election they had the turnout of latinos in early voting with already 30 higher than latino early voting in all of 2012. They like what they see coming out of North Carolina. It sounds like a much different mood here at the Javitz Center. A big crowd, a lot of people here, a lot of staff come over from Campaign Headquarters across the river in brooklyn. Campaign volunteers ive seen here who have seen in other states as weve traveled around. They seem to be anticipating a good outcome tonight. Judy, hari. Woodruff throughout this campaign, donald trump has spoken a lot about the large crowds he has drawn in different parts of the country and the tens of thousands. Hillary clinton doesnt seem, has drawn crowds that big. She did have 30,000 the other night. But in general, do the clinton people say because they havent tried or they are defensive about it. What do they say. It wasnt until the closing days you saw that. Even in the last week the crowds were not terribly large or enthusiastic. They were putting their emphasis into building a ground operation, getting the voters out, doing things so they could identify their voters and then track them to the polls. Even today there was a rebound, having waived the volunteers, are going out in key states, knocking on doors to see if their vote was recorded yet. They were doing that as late as 5 00 in some key states. So that has been their emphasis really to try to build that ground operation to get the vote out. Woodruff all right, john yang at the clinton celebration location in new york city, in manhattan. We can hear the clinton crowd cheering behind you. We goods they are looking at some results on some of the Television Screens around the room. Sreenivasan well come back to you often john. Thank you very much. We want to collect in at florida with adam smith. Adam thanks for joining us. You were probably out there today taking a look at some of lines and what was hospitalling ahospital happening at the po. What can you tell us. Something unique about this election weve had so many votes come before election day. So the lines, we have some big lines but really its two thirds of the vote was already in. The decision really the decision had ultimately been made before election day this time. Sreenivasan tell us about the iowa quarter. That seems to be crucial for both candidates if they want to win that state. Historically its south florida, your population areas, miamidade, broward palm beach. The pan has not actual is the conservative republican area and then the corridor between kind of a fulcrum they battle on, the candidates. This time though the demographic shifts are such that the miamidade, a big mar margin the with so many hispanic voters, puerto rico his tannics. Breadth is doing reasonably well in parts of ta tampa bay where i am. Woodruff we were hearing a lot about it in florida it was much better than expected. What are you seeing . Jaw yeah definitely much betr than expected. Theres a big push in the tail end. The clinton complain really focused, they had a big operation all along that they really focused overwhelmingly miamidade and the area around or ala alan land owe which has n exploding with puerto ricos. Woodruff can you compare to what youve seen in the past. Obama did the same thing but especially miamidade where you have this unusual situation with the could bee could cuban amerie historically been trending republican. I think the clinton goal was to get an even bigger margin in miamidade than obama did. Sreenivasan is there something you saw in the last week or two about get out the vote effort on either side that stuck with you. Its been the ongoing story but the crowd seemed much more enthusiastic energetic big at the trump events than at the hillary events. But clearly barack obama doing to do value county, miami. One that looks good for leerk is do valu hillary is duval with black voters is much closer than any of us would have thought and thats a function of the Clinton Campaign doing a lot of push there. Sreenivasan adam, thank you. Woodruff adam thank you, it will be interesting to watch because florida is one of the ones were waiting for to learn more about it. Well now someone is joining us who is a Senior Advisor to the donald Trump Campaign. Hes Boris Epstein. Hes been with us on the newshour before. Boris, welcome back. What are you hearing at this hour in the evening. Its 23 minutes after 8 00 in the east. What are you hearing thats good news and what are you hearing that worries you . Floridas within about 2,000 votes right. Theyre looking at that pan handle of florida, very auntistic of florida. Going up higher to North Carolina and iowa. We still think our problem is the same what i just listed and nevada, New Hampshire second or colorado. And then michigan. Very excited very optimistic where we stand. Sreenivasan were you able to expand that map in the last few days. We sadi cisions to go to places like michigan. Absolutely. There was a great decision. State of michigan is in play the First Time Since 1988as republican. I wish i could turn around and see what it is. Woodruff im hearing the call may have been the state of alabama for donald trump. Thats a safe thats gone republican for a number of times but every victory counts. I want to ask you about the latino vote we were talking about adam smith in florida. Any regrets on the part of donald trump, the people around him about his language, particularly early in the campaign but if the campaign wore on about latinos, about the wall. Because there does now seem to be clearly to be a much much higher turnout in the Latino Community and it appears it may favor Hillary Clinton. No, theres no regrets. The Latino Community is very diverse. I know you have to look at puerto rico. Were very confident that mr. Trump has run a great campaign. On illegal immigration hes been very strong because it secures our country and secures our borders and thats what americans want. And in the economy bringing back jobs. Sreenivasan the wall street journal said that mr. Trump has written both a concession speech as well as an acceptance speech. I will leave for them to answer that. Im confident winning this election and thats what were focused on. So as the night goes on boris, whats the plan . Will mr. Trump come out . Is there a time set . What do you think . Were watching the polls, watching the results. He will come out and tell voters woodruff all right. Boris epstein with the Trump Campaign. Thank you very much. Thanks for having me. Have a great one. Woodruff were now joined by christina shocky, shes a Deputy Communications director for the clinton complain. Christina its good to have you with us. Thanks very much. What are you seeing. Good to be here. Woodruff thank you. What are you seeing, what are you hearing that gives you reason to smile and what are you worried about. Well first of all im smiling because you can sense the energy here at the javitz city in new york city. We have thousands of people pouring in for what we hope will be a celebration tonight for the first woman president of the United States. We felt very good coming into election day because of the work we did. Hillary clinton just campaigned her heart out in these Battle Ground states. We have 43 million americans even voted before we got to the election day and we were seeing a good turnout for hillary in important states like florida, nevada and North Carolina. We were feeling good coming into election day but we feel really good tonight with the results that were already seeing in those crucial States Sreenivasan sreenivasan is there something youre from the exit polls that your campaign has that gives you optimism in a state like florida that seems really close right now. Yes. You know, in the really important counties where we really have to win by big numbers in Orange County, were doing really well. What we saw even coming into election day, if were growing to see historic turnouts, they were voting even in the early votes double the rate that they were in 2012. And we know from our data that one third of those voters are first time voters. They didnt vote in the last election. So that really speaks to the registration that we ran in florida and the hard work weve been doing there to get out our supporters and it will really see that hillary has been connecting with the Hillary Coalition that is going to put her over the top today which is latinos, African American, islanders, millennials and suburban women who we think are coming together to give her that victory. Woodruff christina a lot of conversations in the last few days about the decision by the Clinton Campaign to send her to michigan a state thats gone blue for as long as many of us can remember. Because donald trump seemed to be narrowing the gap there. Just how close is michigan . How concerned are you about it . You know michigan was a state that we had Hillary Campaign in late because its a game day state. All the voting happens on election other than other states. Oh, im sorry i think were good to do the National Anthem so we probably have to take a pause here. Woodruff well forgive you that and we hope to have you back again soon. Christina shocky with the Clinton Campaign. Sreenivasan lets turn to they are going to be digging deep into the down ballot race whats going on for control of the senate and the house. Lisa. Thats right. Just up over to your side here we are looking at what i think what may be at least as important and what gets down in washington which is control of congress. Weve had newspapers in the last hour. Lets look at the graphic about control of the senate. Democrats in order to take up control of the senate need four or five, they need to gain four or five seats. You see it on the graphic. They gained one so far. Thats the Illinois Senate race. Thats marks seat right now with the Associated Press and we are projecting that will go with henry deductworth the democrat in that case. They have to pick up four or five that depends on whether democrats win the presidency. If they do they get a tie spraying tim kaine in the senate they only need four. But the fact were talking about a democratic take over at all after eight years of an incumbent president is that remarkable. How heavy is this tonight for the democrats, how realistic. Winning illinois was the easy one for democrats. If they didnt concede mark kirk they would have a terrible night. If you had told republicans early in the cycle when the polls closed illinois would go democratic but they would win ohio and florida, i think republicans would be estatic. But the matt is stil math matt r democrats to get control. Were waiting for New Hampshire, missouri North Carolina, indiana later tonight, nevada. Those races are the ones that are going to decide the majority. Thats what i like is that so much of the country have yet to come out with president ial votes. Much of the country hasnt closed their polls. Were watching 11 Key Senate Races and right now eight of those have closed. We just dont have results for all of them. So its already a huge moment for watching control of the senate you mentioned florida. Lets talk about that. Marco rubio kept his seat. There are some notes in the past few months. I wasnt clear if they would. One interesting thing we heard from Boris Epstein as he talked to you, judy and hari is hispanics in florida. Lets tank abou talk about that. We have miamidade county. Thats the green doubt. Thats heavily cuban and theres a house race down there well be watching all night. Look at the yellow dots in the center. Thats the corridor. Not just cuban but heavy puerto ricoian, different types of voting trends. Marco rubio cuban hair continue has won the state heritage has won the state. Were not just watching the senate. Some folks in washington will have a chip on their shoulders sometimes against the senate but all of you are lovers of the house of representatives this is for you. We are seeing some potential news in the house of representatives. There you see marco rubio right there, the race called for him over patrick murphy. And Patrick Murphys seat now of course is in contention. Hes left the house of representatives. There are two races that look like could go to democrats tonight. One is john mica, 24 year house veteran right now hes losing, is that right. John mica. This was a seat that really was late come ongoing to the landscape for democrats. The Democrat Stephanie murphy. John mica got caught in a couple different factors coming his way. Courts ordered some of the florida districts to be redrawn so some of the territory is new to him. And i think hes had a tough im evolving his campaign to the 21st century. Thats a nice way of putting that. We had it as tilting away from him by coming into tonight. If democrats win and defeat mica there are 29 more seats they have to get the majority. Murphy is an interesting candidate. She immigrated with her parents from vietnam, escaped vietnam and came here. She became a National Security analyst and now it looks like shes winning at the moment at least in that case. Another one a name our viewers will be familiar with, one Charlie Crist. Tell me what hes doing. Charley chris almost tried to pull off a trifecta losing a senate race, a governor race and a house race but it looks like hes in the lead now. House of representatives is going to be amazing a former democratic governor but from a republican governor who lost as a democrat. Theres actually a number of candidates who failed in gubernatorial races were going to be entering the house. Jamie cuomo in kentucky, jot angel in that Charlie Crist race hes running against an incumbent. Thats not just about Charlie Crist thats interesting hari but its also about donald trump. Hes someone who disavowed donald trump but yet Charlie Crist tried again and again to tie him to donald trump. They think thats something that has been a problem for the incumbent republican. Well watch throughout the night tonight. We go live, we go deep. Its a good night. Judy, hari. Woodruff lisa. We will be coming back to you as often as we can through the night. And we do have some senate races now to call. Results in the state of alabama, senator Richard Shelby is the projected winner there running reelection. In indiana, republican todd young win that open seat that means that seat stays republican. Evan bayh a former senator he stepped down from the senate. Said that he didnt want to fill anymore he thought congress wasnt working well, he didnt like being in Congress Anyone but he was persuaded by the leaders of the Democratic Party to go back and run and they thought that gave democrats a real shot. Sreenivasan 20 million spent on that. Cornell belcher how important was that one trying to get those seats in the senate that lisa was talking about . I think thats a tough one for republicans. Democrats clearly need to make some end roads here. You know right now im looking is New Hampshire and pennsylvania. I think it was a tough you know. Marco rubio one, as well. Speaking of florida right now, going back to what they were talking about earlier, if you look earlier there, that electorate there looks a lot less white than it was. Its about six points less white and its a little younger than it was early on. I think what youre seeing with the Clinton Campaign doing on the ground is certainly bearing out in some of the exit polls. Woodruff thats a big shift. I would say im looking at the county by county numbers in florida. And the democratic counties are more democrats and the republicans are slightly more republican which is the self polarization we were talking about earlier. In Orange County which is the orlando area thats slightly more hillary than it was barack obama. And the contease a little further down pretty much further down was the same. In late county is more a republican county in that area. So it looks like theres polarization. But it looks a lot like four years ago basically. If trumps going to pull something off so far i dont see. That could be good news for Hillary Clinton. Yes, were still waiting it sounds like on some of the most populous of the counties in florida come in. Broward county, miamidade to come in. But this feels like i think davids exactly right. It feels like what were seeing is the democratic areas becoming that much more democratic but the republican areas are Holding Strong and where theyre not holding as strong we can see in some states at least in the exit polls in pennsylvania for example and North Carolina where white women, hes not doing as well with those voters, not doing as well with suburban women voters, women with a College Education in a place like pennsylvania and New Hampshire. But in some of these southern states, florida, georgia, North Carolina holding his own. Trumps holding his own. In these packets and exit polls trump performs well among men and people without a College Degree. Thats going to have interesting consequences tonight and it looks like hes doing better in broward than i thought he was going to do. Super tight. But the group of people who are decreasing in our demographics are High School Less white voters, four percent less than four years. So that is a group that sure you want to win that group but youre sort of winning a percentage of customers that are declining. And its an ominous time Going Forward. This narrative of this potentially being what we call a backlash election. In 2008 everyone talked about this is post racial, that race didnt matter anymore. There were a lot of people who were skeptical and rightfully so. We forgot moments of progress with moments of resistance and weve seen that redissance e marijuana especiall emerge esd trump making those appeals. Two Television Networks are now projecting that the house of representative will remain in republican control. I dont think anybody at this table, im looking around to see if anybody is expressing surprise. Having registered this, andra, back to your point. The motion that those without College Education are voting strongly trump. Its fine, it makes sense. It fits the populous tor ten owr campaign. What this says is the Republican Party as its constructed right now. The Republican Party still has a lot of soul searching to do. At the point it does escort of shift around from the Battle Grounds right. So you would expect them to do better in ohio, right. You expect them to do better in New Hampshire where you do have sort of that electorate that looks a lot whiter, little older and little less liberal. Iowa. Iowa but at the same time you see democrats making some gains further south. You see some of the map shifting. Woodruff we want to go to our news room where annual brangham has been annual wilm brake hubrake hum. We want to work out how real are these acquisitions, whats really going on out there. Injury joined by jessica how how is who is looking out for these things. Jessica, thank you very much for being here. I wur7b8d if you could tell us overall how is election day going so far. Optally some of the polls are not closed especially on the west coast but so far everything is pretty boring out there which is good news for everyone i think. We were expecting i think a little bit more exsiemght today than we got but thats only good news. Obviously its nice to be bored on those particular things. One of the allegations weve been hearing in the months leading up to this election donald trump said this is going to be a rigged election and hes deputized some of his supporters to go out and watch polls and monitor and see if they can see anything funny going on. Has any of that materialized as far as you can tell . Not as far as we can tell. You know, it appears no organized campaign for voter intimidation or even obvious exit polling strategies. There were a few one off reports here and there of a trump supporter or just a generally boisterous person in front of a polling place making people feel uncomfortable. It doesnt look like those are organized or wide spread. Really were pleased that we didnt really see much voter intinl daiks at alintimidation s considered. In North Carolina which is a crucial Battle Ground state, there has been real problems with the voting machines, with registration. I know the naacp and the Clinton Campaign asked that some polling stations be kept open later to allow voters who might have been blocked earlier to allow them to vote. Whats the latest on whats happening down there. Yes, those polling stations were kept open. There were a total of seven and they were kept open not very long between 15 and 45 minutes. They are all closed now and it was just to account for Late Start Times because of issues with the electronic roll books at the very beginning. Similarly we heard issues about voting irregularities in pennsylvania. I understand there was one video that went out of a voter showing he couldnt change his vote from trump back to clinton but this was kind of debunked. But there are other reports as well. Can you bring us up to speed, whats hatching in pennsylvania specifically. There have been all sorts of allegations in pennsylvania not more than we were really expecting and not particularly wide spread despite what social media might have you believe. A few issues with polling booths that were pretty quickly fixed or were attributable to voter error. There were also a couple of boisterous demonstrations in front of polling places there but again these were all things we were expected especially in a place like philadelphia which had been kind of a hot bed for controversy in weeks leading up to the elections so nothing we were really surprised by and nothing that voters should really be concerned by all things considered. This is obviously the first election weve had in the president ial race since the Supreme Court changed major aspects of the Voting Rights law. And since that ruling by the Supreme Court, weve seen lots of states change their voter id rules and a lot of of the concern has been that those rules will disenfranchise voters. From your perspective, is there any way to know whether all these new voter id rules around the country have had any impact today. Right. So you know, there are things that well be able to count when this vote is fully counted in the next couple days and all of the numbers are tallied, well know how many people cast provisional ballots in most states for example because they lack the proper id and how many of those were eventually rejected. One of the things we wont know is how many people did not show up to stroaft at all because they are concerned they might not have the right id. I was talking to an activist earlier today in wisconsin told me one of the confusing part of wisconsins law is the dnv when you update your address does not issue you a new id like they do in most states so when you go to vote your address on your id does not actually need to match. It just has to be updated in the system. Thats a really big miss understanding and some parts of wis conson so well never really know how many people chose not to voaft vot vote at all. There were similar places like texas and virginia. And texas especially where the law has changed so many times that people are confused by the it so they just choose not to stroat at all and thats something were not going to be able to measure. Jessica and electionwhrund thank you very much for being here. Well go back down to the studio with judy and hari wound Wood Woodruff this is a critical swing state. Were joined now by valerie who covers the southeast for the wall street journal. Valerie, we rod it for the president ial house but theres a hot senate race and hot governors race. But give us a sense tonight how it feels. I mean somebody whose watched the president ial candidates come through there so many times. What does it feel as they start to count the votes. What does it feel like. Theres a lot of excitement here. I was already at the polls most of the day today. Theres also a sense of readiness because youre right, we had donald trump here yesterday, Hillary Clinton doing a midnight rally here. And they both spent as much time here as anybody in the country. I think theres excitement but also its time to count. Sreenivasan i was going to ask you. Considering the closeness of minority votes there and how much its mattered, the get out the vote efforts by the clinton complain in North Carolina just in these last few days, how much of a difference has that made. Well, i was out today at an aAfrican American place today with folks there making sure they were counted and if they were at the wrong precinct to take them somewhere else. We were talking about North Carolina where half a dozen precincts had some problems with registration. Those are really important presince to the clinton complain. I looked at one that had 2400 voters and only 100 of those were republican. So its been significant to the clinton complain but they watch very closely whats happening with get out the volt and then also the precincts they really care about are running well. Woodruff one of the other things were watching and reporting in North Carolina a few weeks ago is about this in particular. That is looking at women particularly collegeeducated women who did go nationally for mitt mit bmitt romney by severan the last election but they were reluctant to support donald trump. How do you see the gender divide and in particular if you put gender together with higher education. Well judy i think what were seeing play out tonight is in your big suburban and urban areas. You see big numbers, big numbers between donald trump and Hillary Clinton and in the governors race between the republican incumbent pat mick youry and the democratic challenger. There are tens of thousands even a hundred thousand which is a significant amount, as much as a third or a quarter of the total vote thats expected. Sreenivasan is there something in the last couple weeks that caught your eye something that might be pivotal in how this is turn. Right now its still pretty close, its within 2 of the votes that we have at 8 45 earn time. Well i think a couple things on the state level one of the big animating dynamics here has been North Carolina which is the transgender bathroom law that has been very unpopular with millenniums. At the polls today i talked to, you know, supposedly millennials were disengaged i didnt find that in my interviews, i found they were very animated coming out to express their displeasure with governor mccory from a special perspective. Also an Enthusiasm Gap for hockey but a real desire to cast a vote against mr. Trump. I things i heard repeatedly were house bill 2 on the state level and on the national level. Woodruff thank you very much. Well be talking with you later. Thank you. Woodruff hari as we come back to the table here, mark shields, i think one of the things we pick up as we talk about education, the education divide that were starting to see in the american electorate this year. Now were waiting to see how it develops tonight. But this will be something new on the Political Landscape wouldnt it. It would be. I mean historically the College Educated voters have supported republican candidates. Bill clinton lost collegeeducated voters in 92 and one with white blue collar voters who didnt have a College Education. Thats where it was. Theres no question but i think the question that remains is whether donald trump is generous, whether hes one off. I mean if republicans can come back and be competitive because these are people who i think the cultural and social issues have turned off them from republicans in many cases. So they have a challenge in trying to reengage them but it had been a natural fit for republicans over the generation. The Comfort Level has been with republicans. That was a fascinating report from north care care, north car. Woodruff is this the beginning of a trend. Marco rubio is probably going to end up winning collegeeducated white voters. Any time in politics its about addition and you want to be better with the growing groups of people. This is a great demographic challenge republicans are faced with nonwhite voters. So more people are College Educated than not College Educated every election. So you need to be doing better with those people particularly if youre not doing well with nonwhite voters. I hope this is going to be a recognition with these voters to stay republican even though donald trump may have turned some of them off. Sreenivasan david brooks how significant do you think the gender bathroom issue in North Carolina. Would this be a referendum on the governor. The Business Community came out strongly against him over time. I think in the gubernatorial race, i dont think in the president ial race. I dont think this strikes me of the results, would i seeing the real results not exit polls is donald trump doesnt seem exceptional and he looks like a republican. For all the weirdness of the Trump Campaign when youre looking at the numbers he looks like a generic republican and hes doing better in some places because he looks like a jowrk republican than i generic republican than i would have expected and doing worse in other places. You still have to think she has an advantage but he looks like hes doing surprisingly well from my perspective given the way hes campaigned and the alleged lack of ground game and all that kind of stuff. Hes doing pretty well. And so this is going to be a longer night than i would have anticipated. Thats going to be one of the most remarkable pieces that come out and lets see where all the votes come in. But the fact that he is overperforming in some of these areas, in florida or virginia where he did not have the ground game. There was no data an liftics team. There was not the advertising rush. This is the organic vote that is coming out and supporting donald trump. And this would be i think that is another remark able part of this campaign how many rules he changed during this pain. I think the question that comes from this is one, what does it say about Political Consultants because every story weve heard in the past year that there are Political Consultants shaking in their boots because its hard are forethem and the candidate. It becomes the question how do you build a party coalition. Donald trump has been able to keep this coalition together but normally there are problems with this party coalition. You have a Republican Party who are now not well received by the base but they still need to be there. And then you have elements of bigotry that have resonated within the party, and thats not good for the health of the country. So how does the Republican Party bring all these people occipital and also bring and also bring them along to a better place. Sreenivasan are you quaking in your boots. Listen i think were going to have to see how this worst of works. The opposing pier has to do a lot of soul searching being able to reach out to a broader diverse country. About america, its getting less white and thats going to continue for some time unless white people can figure out how to quit dying and thats unlikely. I think that is a moral imperative for the Republican Party but its also a political imperative. Woodruff Cornell Belcher what donald trump is showing is we dont know how this night is going to turn out but what hes shoans the white vote if you will is not going away quietly. Hes compounded it a lot. The interesting thing for republicans is this. You have allowed that vote thats more trump than it is republican, right. When you look and say that trump supporter is favorable to hiring the mitt romneys, right. What happens after election when they try to reestablish themselves with the Republican Party and continue to try to shun donald trump. Right now i think you have a surge of voters right now that are more about romp than they are about the Republican Party. Just a cautionary note to democrats at this point. The house of representatives theyre now competitive in the senate race but they were expected to win. And so its not exactly a time to uncork the champagne. Donald trump who was supposed to be a man with a ceiling somewhere around 42 . At least my judgment and the judgment of people whose judgment i respect a lot more than mine seems to be exceeding that and is competitive in areas that we didnt expect. That has a big effect even if he goes on to lose were not going to see a Republican Party run away from the platform he ran on and theres a big argument to say he loses. Its not going to be a blowout so hes going to lose close so therefore his style of republicanism will probably carry the day. The thing thats interesting about the house and senate, if you look at academic predictive models, they were actually predicting modest gains for democrats, not enough to win the house and maybe enough to tie in the senate. Well see whether or not theyll hold. Woodruff were going to take a break. Well be back with more live coverage of this election on this special election 2016 full night of coverage. Thank you, and well be right back. Funding for this program has been provided by love me tender we can like many, but we can love only a precious few, because it is for those precious few that you have to be willing to do so very much. You dont have to do it alone. Lincoln financial helps you provide for and protect your financial future because this is what you do for people you love. Lincoln financial youre in charge. Supporting social entrepreneurs and their solutions to the worlds most pressing problems skollfoundation. Org. This program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. And by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. Thank you. Im william bang hum from the pbs newshour. Im talking with Jeff Greenfield in our studio in new york and we want to look back at some of the key moments that had guided the direction of this campaign. From your perspective what are some of those moments that really stood out. More than five years before Election Night but one key moments happened in 2011 at the Whitehouse Correspondents Association dinner in washington when problem took deed aim at donald trump. Dead aim at donald trump. Donald trump is here tonight. I know that hes taken some flack lately but no one is happier, no one is prouder to put this birth certificate matter to rest than the donald. Thats because we can finally get back to focusing on the issues that matter. What really happened and where are begy and tupa. Donald trump does not look happy in that video. I know theres a lot of people that have argued this was the genesis moment of Donald Trumps campaign. Do you buy that theory. I do because i think one thing we see up to and including the debates when Hillary Clinton dated him is the rid cull, humiliation is a primal concern of donald trump. In a sense i believe that what happened that night with all of washington laughing at him may well have triggered the idea the one way i know i can make up for this is to do the impossible which is to roam, seek and maybe even win the presidency of the United States. Trump has said over the years that he want to run and certainly surrounded himself with people who have argued drunld you should run. Do you think there are other factors that might be pushing him to get into the race. Its very hard to say. There are people at the beginning who say this is an exercise in branding and those who think he never thought he would get this far. If you see how much donald trump believes in himself, then i think he thought he could be an effective president of the United States going back decades. Its just that this was the moment facing 16 other candidates when he made have instinctively realized this and the discontent of the republican electorate may be the time thate republican electorate, this may be the time i could do this. Jeff greenfield. Well be back with you later this evening and continuation of the president ial election will be going on here on pbs, stay tuned. O. Woodruff welcome back. Leks night 2016. It is 9 00 on the east coast, 6 00 on the pacific coast. Polls have just closed in 13 other states, colorado, kansas, minnesota, nebraska, new mexico, new york, north dakota, south dakota, texas, wisconsin and wyoming. At the end of the 8 00 hour the Electoral College count as of now is 68. For Hillary Clinton. And 66 for donald trump. Again, 270 is the magic number to get to the oval office. Woodruff and hari, where the states closed a couple of hours ago in virginia, too close to call, North Carolina, the polls closed at 7 30 eastern too close to call and ohio and florida, be david brooks, that tells us, i think that tells us this maybe a long night. Yes, seems like a panic of a week or two after comey then a lot of confidence polls are converging, four point lead, New York Times upshot projections 83 be chance of winning, thats dropping. Hes out performing the recent vibe, and so lets not say hes necessarily going to win but a longer night and a closer night than some of us thought. And im not sure why. Im not sure where i think maybe more white voters, im not quite seeing where his vote is coming from. Because shes doing well among the people she is expected to do well and some of the gender gaps are, good but in actual votes hes doing okay. Andra gillespie, do we have to read tea leaves or wait for more numbers . We still have to wait for more numbers to come the in. Some of these exit poms are very, very close. The gender gaps are not as big as we thought they were going to be. Right now, Hillary Clinton is performing like an average democrat amongst African Americans and almost an average democrat amongst latinos. But shes going to have to post bigger numbers in order to pull off decisive victories. Woodruff we are going to be projecting donald trump the winner in north dakota, three electoral votes, south dakota, another three electoral votes, to donald trump, wyoming, another three votes, reliably republican, nebraska, five more, the state of texas, jackpot so far this evening, 38 electoral votes the second largest in the country after california going to donald trump. We have some results with Hillary Clinton the projected winner in the state of new york with 29 electoral votes. Thats all we have for hillary at the moment. As we get more information, well continue to interrupt and bring you as fast as we can. I think we can take a look at senate and house race he. Lisa desjardins. No we cant. We are able through the exit polls, the interviews with voters, as they left polling places, to get an idea, how strong the turnout is for Hillary Clinton among traditionally democratic groups. What virginia is interesting to me, virginia is one that Lyndon Johnson carried ten times in a row very reliably republican, as Jeff Greenfield mentioned third time in a row was going to go democratic. And it appears, correct me if im wrong but it appears to be a real fight. In virginia. And it it is the state that i think was assumed for democrats. Other than that, where trump is running up the score is in the plains states, where there are no people, and a lot of geography. I mean you can win the dakotas and wyoming, but it just doesns the one big state that, with electoral votes, the second largest that is reliably red. Woodruff Jeff Greenfield is joining us at wne tferlt the pbs station there. Jeff. Gle. Yes, you know what may behappee right have been saying the right candidate can summon up these missing millions of white voters who havent found a candidate that has spoken to them. That was ted cruzs presumption when he was running. Now its early in the evening but what we seem to be seeing in terms of trumps overperformance is that he may be redeeming this longheld dream of some conservatives. That he is bringing out voters, the very nature that has driven more moderate republicans away from him, may have triggered a sense of enthusiasm, that is producing this closer election than i think almost everybody in our neck of the woods assumed. Its a hypotheses, the votes are going to tell us this. You should not dismiss the possibility that trump has done something that certainly the conservatives have dreamt of forever. I throw that out for what its worth. Thanks to the modern technology, emailing with somebody, and we have been talking about this before this night about what 2004 felt like. If you remember the 2004 campaign, the kerry folks, the first iteration ever the superpac. They said we hit every single one of our targets, were overperforming in x x x x. Well Election Night came around and you overperformed in those categories but guess what, the Bush Campaign overperformed in areas you didnt expect them to do well. Thats what tonight feels like. The facts that you have republican senators now, candidates for the senate winning, looks like some very competitive house races, in suburban districts that we have assumed republicans were going to have a very tough time holding onto, that republicans are holding on there. This is shaping up to be a at this point a much better night for republicans than i think even republicans expected. Is. Woodruff this should be an interesting turn. We have another call to make. If we dont well keep talking here. Here it is all right. In the state of arkansas donald trump the projected winner. Hillary clinton was the first lady of the state of arkansas. Her husband bill clinton was twice the governor. By a wide margin. Woodruff yes, i think its still early in the evening but wouldnt be surprised if its a pretty significant margin but over the time Cornell Belcher since bill clinton was governor arkansas has gotten redder. The encyclopedia, West Virginia, arkansas, they are in the same vein where blue collar white states. Conventional wisdom has set us up for this idea that Hillary Clinton was just going to run away with this. Barack obama won florida by a hair, right . He won ohio by a hair. Its not like we and i think he ran a pretty good campaign. Battle grounds they are so hard for another party to get a margin, its a long night still to go but im not surprised at how tight it is right now. I thought it wouldnt be this tight but i mean can you imagine him getting to 270, trump getting to 270 . I think you can begin to imagine how that is going to happen. If he can win North Carolina, ohio and florida he gets close and then he needs to surprise us in some place and then if hes having a much better night than we think then michigan and minnesota look like place that could surprise us or wisconsin. Im not sure its going to happen but you can imagine. Woodruff because of what we see so far. Andra. What we have seen so far and definitely early is theres been no surprises yet. So we have to wait to see whether or not Something Interesting happens in North Carolina or florida or pennsylvania before i think we throw every model that we see out there out the window. Right now it seems like conventionalism is holding. Stuart stevens. Im not a trump guy i dont find that encouraging. But i mean you have to give him credit. They are doing much better in florida than i would have thought. And its going to of course florida is usually tight but were going to have to see how this plays out. I mean we probably are headed to a recount in florida i would think, an automatic recount. Woodruff oh, weve never had one of those before is katherine in the house . Woodruff the conversation we had around the table of the white vote that the republicans there is something that donald trump has tapped into that. I dont think its encouraging. I think that donald trump ran a campaign that certainly doesnt have much to do with why i came into the Republican Party. I was a bush guy. And you know i felt comfortable standing in this race with the last two republican president s and the last republican nominee. But i you know you have to give him credit for being able to turn out voters who i think are going to show havent voted in a while. And those of us, and you know, im in that camp more voters are good. So if hes activated these people, i think you have to respect that, and acknowledge it. Is. All right. Were going to want to check in with john yang at Campaign Headquarters. We are seeing very close race he in a few states. Well i got to tell you hari as the race is getting closer in florida and North Carolina the campaign folks are sort of disappearing from the floor. We were hoping to talk to some people in this hour. But weve now been told that theyre unavailable, when they had previously said they would be available. So i think that there may be some nervousness, watching these, they were telling us they were confident, get out the vote operation, the early voting operation sreenivasan hold on just a second, the state of connecticut is projected for Hillary Clinton, at 56 and 40 just very early in the night. John continue what youre saying. Pdoi the game where they thought they might have something. But i think there seems to be some as i say they seem to have disappeared, they have been out here doing, talking to us and talking to Television Networks, but they seem to have gone back behind closed doors. I dont know what that means. But the raw vote numbers are getting tighter. The lead donald trump opening a lead in florida to a number of other states. So well have to see what that means, as the night goes on hari. Sreenivasan all right thank you john. Woodruff thats interesting that the clinton headquarters they are having a pow wopowz wowzpow would you op. Sreenivasan john do you see. The first chant of u. S. A, u. S. A, as the fox monitor shows a number of wins for donald trump. These are not surprise wins. We are hearing a little bit more of a buzz in the room. I think people that weve talked to as with john theyre not talking so much anymore but they are still expressing their confidence that they were telling us about earlier. I want to inject one thing into the discussion that you all were having. Because i get it here, but i got it even more out, a sense out on the road in the last few days in the places where i was spotted at campaign, this idea of the polarization that david was talking about kind much a tradition democratrepublican race that it looks like maybe were seeing. A lot of the polarization being baked in. I heard this expression from some people i talked to in the last few days in North Carolina in iowa and elsewhere that after all thats happened after all that we went through with whatever it is the fbi and donald trump on the bus and the video, that we went back and forth and we had a lot of shifts enthusiasm but a lot of what were seeing now a lot of the support positives and negatives were there from the beginning. And im looking one thing at some of the exiting polling that were seeing, pennsylvania for example, where both candidates were yesterday on the last day of the campaign, it said, 77 of the voters at in preliminary exit poll results said they made up their minds by cement. So i throw that out by september. So i throw that out to all of you back there in washington of what were seeing there tonight. Woodruff thank you Jeffrey Brown and well be coming back to you throughout the night but jeffrey does raise a good point. Exit polls are showing in pennsylvania and a number of states where people make up their minds well before election day and then there are others who are looking at it. Here is an example of an exit poll. Andra gillespie look at this, from pennsylvania. Well it looks like Hillary Clinton is winning resoundingly amongst College Educated white women and shes not winning amongst nonCollege Educated white women. Her strategy was to reach out to College Educated women, particularly in suburbs. It suggests shes competitive in the state. Woodruff all right we have senate races were prepared to call in kansas, the republican jerry moran is projected to win reelection to the senate not a surprise there. In new york state, Democrat Chuck schumer wins as expected, democratic leader in the senate not too long, and in south dakota, john thune, who i believe seeking his third term winning reelection there. In arizona here is a race that probably was never in real doubt although john mccain has campaigned hard, he is the projected winner against his challenger ann kirkpatrick. How with zero percent showing, they can be projected . They are doing exit polls and precinct data. And they can tell you if the candidates are hitting the projected numbers they can then say, we feel confident and by the way, these decision desks at the networks and at the ap they are very serious about this. They spend a year putting these models together. And they do not hit send unless they feel 100 confident in the numbers they are seeing there. When it comes out very early it is usually in a state that is overwhelmingly red or overwhelmingly blue. But it is again, still quite remarkable that a state like virginia, that was considered a very, very safe state for Hillary Clinton, has still not been called yet. Woodruff and its what, ning 15 in the east. Almost two and a half hours since the polls closed in virginia and we continue to wait. We have been talking about the senate races, Lisa Desjardins is with nathan rothenberg. We have congress and lately the president may control more of the microphone, seems Like Congress is tracking the expertise of governance. Democrats will take over the u. S. Senate. They need four or 75 senate seats, depending on Hillary Clinton wins or not, four if she wins, five if she doesnt. Out of those four or five seats that they need they have picked up one, that is Tammy Duckworth in illinois. Not returning to the senate as expected weve said nathan but i want to look at the big races we are watching that have not been called and will probably determine the fate of the u. S. Senate one of the state of missouri, whats going on there . So in missouri senator ray blount is up for reelection. Donald trump is likely to win missouri but he is up, has been in office for a few decades, has a family of lobbyists, those are not popular items with American Voters now. This was a surprise, not one ton list say a year ago. It was a late breaking race, i thought be roy blount might be vulnerable, but they are homing that donald trump actually pulse ray blount across the finish line rather than holding him down like we see in other states. Comparing how donald trump has done with republicans in these states versus how the Senate Republicans have done with republicans, what do we know about roy blount and how about Richard Burrr another republican that is in the fight for his life. There is a lot of hand wringing about how republican down ballot candidates, would that have any impact on reliable voters, Trump Supporters saying, you didnt embrace him enough, im not going to support you. The exit polls, North Carolina where Richard Burrr has not shied away from donald trump just exainld for him last week. Richard burrr is getting 95 of republicans. Trump is getting 90 of republicans, ray blount getting 86 of republicans. I dont think thats because hes pushed trump aside. Then in New Hampshire where senator was supported and endorsed, then backed away after the access Hollywood Tape, donald trump getting 88 of republicans and cel yeah ayea getting 88 . 49 , 46 , that is a race we could be watching for quite some sometime now. 17 reporting now. To me this is one of the races that could decide what happens in the u. S. Senate. I was listening what andrew was saying earlier, a gender gap, you dont see a gender gap in many of these president ial exit polls but one in New Hampshire, i think has a Big Reflection on the kelly ayott race, how did women vote today for president . When you look at women and Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton won women in the state of New Hampshire by a very large margin, 53 to 41 . Now lets look at what happened in the senate race. Maggie hasson the democrat how did she do with women in New Hampshire, did she do better or worse than Hillary Clinton . She did better, she should more female supporters in the state than Hillary Clinton. Whats interesting is ayott, a woman who has been a legislator and longer than not attorney general in her state, she did worse than donald trump with women in the state of connecticut. Just by one point but to me that tells me that she has theres a very tremendous trump effect there and it is affecting women and a female candidate potentially in the state of New Hampshire tonight. This is a state coming into tonight when you talk to party strategists, they had a feeling where the race would go but in New Hampshire it is tied. I know that some outfits doing the modeling had it 5050, 50. 1 to 49. 9. I think this is a long night as is the senate race. We have a senate race that is going to be called, state of georgia we have a projection, projection current republican incumbent Johnny Isaacson is going to keep his seat, not a shork, 33 reporting, more numbers that is zero percent. That is not a shock. What about the house, were seeing something happen in new jersey, new jersey five, that is another important republican leader, the highest ranking republican in jeopardy, Scott Garrett, tell me whats happening there . Republican senator Scott Garrett got himself in trouble because the reports about how he was upset with the National Republican Congressional Committee the group thats in charge of reelecting House Republicans for upset at the committee for supporting gay candidates. And that caused a whole fire storm, made it almost a national race, some of his donors pulled their support. He was in the bill Clinton Administration as a speech writer, he was able to raise money, looked like Scott Garrett might be okay because of the expensive new york city media market but House Majority pac invested the money over the summer. As out of step with that north jersey district and the race isnt called yet i believe. But looks like Scott Garrett is in trouble. At this moment exactly. Two long time Republican Leaders actually now in trouble tonight. Well see if theres symbolic victories tonight for democrats in the house or if they make real gains. Looks like the big numbers are not going to be there for house democrats. Theyre going to have to go to sleep tonight with these kind of specific members that they were focused on that they are going to get. All right judy hari well keep watching. Woodruff that is if they get any sleep at all. Sreenivasan New Hampshire, James Pindell with the globe. Its a very tight race. It is a very tight race, ive been talking to the war rooms, they have about half of the state in while obviously our reports coming in from the ap are quite behind that. It is still a very tight race for them. Its a fascinating thing owatch though in the stays is how class and how education have really sort of flipped the normal models you normally see when it comes to a traditional republican versus democratic president ial race. So you have towns in the northern part of the state or the central part of the state, some are mill towns some are manufacturing towns that have traditionally been pretty heavily democratic that have become more and more trump, in some cases he is winning these towns. However when you get closer to the mcht border and remember the border of massachusetts border to massachusetts is about half an hour it will well educated well paid individuals. These people have been the bedrock of the Republican Base in New Hampshire. However this is where you go town by town by town. Hillary clinton is doing better because she obviously does better among College Educated whites. So the dynamic is flipping a little bit. But the bottom line is and you go all through these races, Hillary Clinton has a slight lead in the u. S. Senate race, Maggie Hasson the democrat has a slight lead and theres a slight lead in the open race for governor for democrat. But it is really too tight for a lot of democrats right now and they are quite nervous even though they are cautiously optimistic. Woodruff james ive got to ask you about the money spent in the state of New Hampshire. Four electoral votes, the is last time i looked it was the second highest amount of money spent on a senate race there, the race between the incumbent republican kelly ayott and the signature governor Maggie Hasson. You do happen to be a state with a sitting president ial candidate and a senate race. The senate race is 110 million, the largest money spent on a race in New Hampshire history. And to put that in the context, we are expecting a turnout of 738,000 voters and 110 million for one race not even including the president ial race. So people have been inundated, a lot of election fatigue, in New Hampshire since weve been doing it for two years because of the president ial primary. But certainly you see these long lines in republican communities and democratic communities, people are ready to vote today. Woodruff i didnt do the math but im sure somebody has to figure out how much it was to vote. The relationship between kelly ayott and donald trump about. As we talked about earlier its been extremely complicated. The last time that i can recall that they actually met in person was in the spring of 2015, there was a confab in nashua, but ever since then its been complicated. She never endorsed anybody in the president ial primary. It was unclear what she would do. As nathan mentioned earlier her first position was she would support donald trump but not endorse him. If you could parse that, she was going to vote for him but not fully back him. After the access Hollywood Video came out the nation was back of watching what she would do. Its important, watershed moment the moment she officially divorced donald trump and said she would write in mike pence today for president. But it ends up not mattering that much. If you are a democrat, you thought it was fine or horrible, didnt really care, republican, she wasnt hurt that much, independents didnt really care but arguably we thought it would be one of the most important moments but navigating her position with trump has been extremely complicated. James pindem, reporting from New Hampshire, for results we are still waiting to come through. James were definitely coming back to you. Its getting close to ning 30 on the east coast, so were watching for results coming in on the many, many states. Half the countrys polls have closed by now so were looking for results to come in and well be reporting them as we are. Besides the senate house and president ial race, we are waxing exactly 163 ballot measures that are on the ballot in many states around the country. Our own William Brangham and his team up in the newsroom have been tracking the most significant ones. William what do you see . Hi judy. As you mentioned 163 ballot measures and initiatives being voted on all across the country today. And theres a dizzying array of issues theyre covering, legalization of marijuana, citizens united, pharmaceutical drugs, a very, very big array wp im joined by daniel bush who has done a ton of reporting on this issue. First, marijuana, we have graphics. Legalizing marijuana, five states, arizona, california, maine, nevada and massachusetts could legalize marijuana for anyone over 21. Treat being it very much like alcohol. Then on the issue of medical marijuana, there is four states, florida, north dakota, arkansas and montana they could also expand or legalize the use of marijuana for medical purposes. So daniel if these pass and again we dont know how all of these are going to do, this really so be a tidal shift in the country with regards to marijuana policy. Thats right, william, and advocates say this is a Tipping Point if california and those other states do pass then a quarter of the nation could live in states where they could buy marijuana for recreational purples. The country could start shifting in that direction. What has been the argument that reform advocates have been make ugh why do they say we should legalize . Its a multipronged argument, they are start to be say an economic argument, saying this could grow the states tax base, it could help with deficits, small emphasis owners to have regulatory certainty. That is the angle they are taking. It is saying it is working in some cases, in some of these states. Lets look at some of the very, very big issues going on in these states, minimum wage, four different states, five states today are voting to change their minimum wage, main maine, south dakota, california, then on another issue with a lot of measures going on gun chrome, four states today are voting on some form of gun control, maine, nevada, washington and california. Three of those would require background checks for all gun sales. California would require background checks for the purchase of ammunition. Again, these are major issues. The thing that strikes me about these is it seems as if the states in all of their different measures are in a way responding to what they see as inaction by the federal government. Is that how you see it . Thats right and a lot of these situations whether we are looking at minimum wage or marijuana, or gun control, and you can see more of our coverage if you follow us online at pbs. Org newshour we have all those issues there as well. These are states where voters are saying if congress isnt going to act on gun control they are going to take it into their own hands and well have to wait and see on the results tonight its a little too early to tell what ends up happening. On some of these issues some of them seem partially symbolic, carbon tax, and citizens united. Do you look at these initiatives and get a sense where the country is moving politically if you look at the whole nation . It is hard to tell. On the whole cycle, gun control for example, in this year we are seeing several liberal initiatives, an initiative that would ban high capacity ammunition, another that would institute background checks on ammunition. Those are part of a wish list that the democrats have had for years theyve had issues getting through congress. They are saying we want to move the ball forward and could put pressure on the congress to act. Daniel bush, thank you well go back to the studio with judy and hari. Woodruff thank you very much. Donald trump the projected winner in louisiana. Lets talk about it. Stuart stevens when is the last time the republicans democrats lost louisiana . Jimmy carter. Woodruff got to go back to 1976. This is not a surprise . No, its a very reliably republican state, jimmy carter the exception. Woodruff we have been listening very carefully to what william and daniel were saying. And at the same time we were looking at exit polls and david brooks you and mark have been whispering to each other. I want to put to rest the fact that joe college and betty coed are leaving college. In texas where the supposedly White College graduates were offended by Donald Trumps behavior, his language, his conduct, and everything else, the exit polls in texas among the White College graduates, 31 of voters in the state, 30 clinton, 63 trump. So i think republicans are voting republican, and is they overlooked a lot of what bothered then about donald trump. Right now the sfutures elections are collapsing. Its a tossup election. Seasonal of the women not going as big for clinton as we thought. New hampshire 53, michigan 53, for all the charges of harassment the tapes the misogyny, clear misogyny, maybe politics or ideology or class is topping gender. Trump was not garnering more votes than barack obama, clinton gets 40 of the vote ill be surprised. We can call it gender we can call it class i call it race right . We are polarized racially in this country. Look, in martin talks about this, class has more white voters since lbj signed the Civil Rights Act and realigned the parties. We are not winning more, actually less of them, more dependent on minority voters. You guys are writing notes on this side of the room too. One of the things we were paying attention to was the gender gap in michigan. So if these exit polls hold true, this is pretty good news for Hillary Clinton because now, we seed a double digit gender gap in the exit polls of michigan voters which is not something i would have expected. Woodruff in other words, Hillary Clinton doing better with women,. Comparatively than some of the other states. Woodruff and how is donald trump doing with men . The gender gap is trump is predicted to get 55 of the vote of men compared to 39 for clinton. Clinton getting 60 versus 34 . So its relatively tied, its still going to be close but we havent seen that stark of a contrast, in the exit polls, its really, really interesting. Ill be paying attention to that for the rest of the night. Sreenivasan i want to check in. Final from ohio, karen kasler from ohio public media what have you seen today . Early voting to clinton, seven or eight points and donald trump is closing in and in fact taking the lead. Starting to lead in areas where we were expecting him to lead but she Hillary Clinton is not leading in the areas where barack obama led. He was leading in 17 counties and she is leading in 11 counties. Where the early vote really mattered, there was a question about whether the early vote was going to be enough to surpass what would happen on election day. Mitt romney won election day in 2012, though barack obama won the state. There was a question whether Hillary Clintons lead coming into the had election day was enough to surpass donald trump in what his supporters and voters did today. Woodruff how surprised are you, and other reporters karen, that ohio is as tight as it is . Is this exactly what you expected . Its exactly what most of us expected, absolutely. The polls have been very close for several weeks, even months now and, you know, ohio has always been a key swing astate, a bellweather state, if indeed ohio does pick a candidate that doesnt win, this is the First Time Since 1960 that would happen but i think all of us were expecting this. Sreenivasan karen from the voters that you have talked to how many of these are voting for their candidate versus against the other one . I think its a 5050 split, maybe more voting against than for. You hear a lot of the frustration among voters. This is where john cai kasich, e of those people were supportive of trump as a nominee of the Republican Party so theres been some tension between the Trump Campaign and the ohio Republican Party. That has trickled down to voters who have been struggling about what the choice to make here. Of course there were democrats who crossed party lines to vote for kasich. There has been frustration all around here. Woodruff and karen, he ended up being the next to the last person to drop out before ted cruz, turning it over to trump. But how bitter are the feelings there in the Republican Party, not just between john kasich and the people who support donald trump but in the renal establishment overall . I think there is some bitterness. I think there were some folks who believed that the Republican Party should have stood more firmly behind donald trump. The chairman of the ohio Republican Party matt borges raised serious concerns over donald trump about but there was a long struggle that goes back to the rnc in cleveland which you may remember judy. So theres been some real tension there. I think there are Republican Voters who are trying to decide, they really like kasich and what he was talking about in the race but they are also struggling with donald trump is their nominee do they vote for him . Woodruff striking he didnt even show up at the Republican Convention. Karen kasler, we will be checking in with you. Stuart stevens, pick up on what she was saying about the four feelings inside the Republican Party in the aftermath of this campaign . Well i think its going to depend if donald trump wins or loses. Clearly, donald trump is doing better than projected. I think thats going to give call it the trump element of the party more power Going Forward. If you take ohio, theres a state where both the republican senator in the end rob portman and the governor didnt endorse donald trump. If donald trump wins ohio thats going to mean a lot more than if he loses as far as power in the party Going Forward. Woodruff i guess rob portman its right, david, this is an issue that every republican running this year had to deal with. Were they going to embrace donald trump or not and they have all handled it differently. I dont know the verdict on that, kelly ayott, ago no, no am anonymity sure whether that was a good move. You have to feel that republicans in the senate have to feel pretty good, the odds are they have a very decent job of getting 50 senators, and some of the races that are still in North Carolina and New Hampshire and places like that are close but they picked up that big one in indiana. Sreenivasan that is population specific knowing whether you can actually convince your electorate to split tickets, versus my people are not going to go, they are going to go straight line. So far this is not a great night for splitting tickets. Mark kirk in illinois was a republican in a democratic state. I cant think of right now somebody can correct me if im wrong, i cant think of a clear thing where florida marco rubio doing better but trump may be doing pretty well in florida. I cant think of a classic case tonight. Woodruff where somebody swung against. One reception might be among cuban American Voters marco rubio, there maybe some who voted for Hillary Clinton but they also voted for marco rubio just based on the exit poll numbers. I would say two things. First of all, donald trump has not proofed t proved to be te albatross was suggested he would be for the republican candidates. And the irony is barack obama had 56 approval yesterday, in the gallup tracking poll, which is extraordinarily high for somebody. And especially high for him at this point. At a point where pat twomey in his last tv spot, barack obama embracing pat twomey, against joe manchun so they are sending all kinds of mixed messages, rather desirable constituencies in this case i think suburb voters in particularly women voters in the counties of of philadelphia. Woodruff jeff is joining us in new york, jeff chime in. Well, 1992, the central theme of the campaign was exchange, versus more of the same. And i notice in Donald Trumps two minute closing ad that ran in all the sporting events, it is a call for change. It is deeply populace, about half of that speech, that ad could have been run by Bernie Sanders or elizabeth warren. You have been betrayed, the big shots the elites, the Global Financial empires, they have done this. They have deprivate you of your livelihood and i will make it better. Lets be candid. I doni dont think there is a n in a journalistic world that thought that donald trump had a chance to win this thing. We may have overlooked how powerful the change argument is, particularly running against a democratic candidate who whatever her assets is hard to run as a candidate of change, even if she is the first woman president. That dynamic may be explaining the shock weaches going through the Political Community right about now. You actually talked about one of those candidates jeff george right . In terms of the mcginity twomey thing. What im saying is what you are seeing is in a lot of states in the rural areas, a turnout that i think has surprised and baffled a lot of people and im suggesting that particularly for that constituency, the argument of change the argument that youve been left behind the argument that the people in charge of the system have not respected you and have not met your needs, play turn out to be a much more powerful force, than many of us, myself included, might have assumed. Woodruff Jeff Greenfield in new york, thank you and we will be coming back to you. Right now, we want to go to the state of kansas to talk to the secretary of state, chris kobach, he is a supporter of donald trump and this is actually an opportune moment to speak to you mr. Kobach. We are sitting around looking at how close these races are, in florida, North Carolina, ohio. Your state has already been called for donald trump. But what are you thinking as you see these other states come in close . Im cautiously optimistic. One thing i look at is how trump is doing compared to how romney did against obama four years ago. So for example look at florida right now it shows trump up by last time i checked, 140,000 votes. Romney lost by 70,000 votes. He is doing significantly better. The exit polling seems to be showing that late deciding voters are breaking towards trump significantly and look add pennsylvania, you guys are just talking about it, a month ago everybody thought pennsylvania was over, hillary had it by double digits now its too close to call. All of those things together suggest to me that trump has a path to victory tonight if things hold. Chris kobach, is there something that you saw in the voters, in your state that you think resonates with the rest of the country and whats propelling donald trump okeep this race this close . A couple of things. One is that, i think charisma matters, no matter whether you are talking about a conservative, a liberal, a populist, some may dislike him, some may really like him. That has helped him a lot both in the primary and the general cycle. The outsider, it is time for a change as mr. Greenfield was mentioned earlier, that is a powerful message. One other thing in the deeply conservative parts of the country you have a lot of voters and conservative places like pennsylvania voters who really think that the constitution is on the brink and that the country is sliding towards a state it can never recover from. Those voters i think are turning out in higher numbers than were expected and they would have turned out probably for any republican candidate but trump is benefiting from those voters as well. A lot of the polls are showing they were off the mark. Woodruff chris kolbach, we are asking you, Donald Trumps appeal he is clearly doing well with white voters, having a harder time with minorities, with African Americans, with latino vote, of course we are still waiting to see what the final results are. How do you think about that . As an issue for your party, what it says about whether donald trump wins or loses this year . Well, you know, its interesting looking not just at this election but maybe the last five or six president ial elections. The Democratic Party has really solidified its hold on certain nonwhite racial groups, expressly bidding to those groups, saying we the Democratic Party are protecting your entity as a racial group. The Republican Party has never really made appeals like that. Its made broad appeals to the general population, these are principles you should identify with. And i think were seeing over time that the democrats have successfully locked in a large number of people in some of those minority racial groups. So i dont think its a trump thing. I think its a republicandemocrat thing and its been going on for quite some time now. Woodruff so are you saying that democrats have been have been hypocritical, have been pandering, what are you saying the democrats have done . Not hypocritical but its more of a pandering. Its more of a you should vote for us because of your racial group and because we the Democrat Party will do a better job of protecting your interests defined not as an american but your interests defined as a member of this racial group and theyve been very successful at that. Now i think we republicans often hope that well our general message to the broad public will appeal and it will overcome that very specific message that the democrats have delivered. But in election after election, that hasnt happened. Woodruff all right, Chris Kalbach secretary of state for kansas we thank you very much for talking with us. And i think interesting there, at the end, Andra Gillespie, to hear the perception of somebody whos clearly republican, clearly supporting donald trump saying the democrats have done something that helps them some of the time but doesnt help them all of the time. The frame was very interesting in that, suggesting that the democrats took minority groups captive, doesnt suggest that minority voters have agency picking parties that would better represent their interest. Thats something very interesting. A lot of the literature says, minorities are not in love with the Democratic Party but they feel that the policy interests that are represented by the Democratic Party platform better align with their interests than the Republican Partys and thats likely to be the case for the near future. Sreenivasan can i jump in here really quickly . That was an astonishing conversation with me when anyone in the history of american politics would know of this thing called a southern strategy which was a blatant sort of call to racial animosity that atwater in his brilliance although diabolical the chair of the Republican Party a couple of years apologized for. So i think that is some revisionism that i find very interesting. I have to push back on that. Woodruff mark shields. I think to deny the southern strategy is to deny history. There was a conscious contempt. All one has to do is look at the vote in 1968, george wallace, carrying six southern states, five southern states, and his vote from 1968 to Richard Nixons in 1972 and thats what Richard Nixon got in 1972. And its now both the fortress of the Republican Party, the south, and its the liability, its what makes the Republican Party a problem in competing, in large swaths of the post of the country. I dont think theres any argument, that the democrats have made a conscious effort at identifies voters by ethnic and racial groups and appealing to them on those grounds. I mean thats true. One, its the southern strategy with the southern strategy. Even in this campaign, the bigotry was not hidden. Donald trump wanted to ban muslims and he said these things about mexicans and rapists and all that, it was not hidden, there is clearly a racial element in this election, what were seeing tonight, im looking at michigan now, trump can a lot better than mitt romney did because of white voters. I still resist story line, the largely racial story but the reporting weve all done over the last many months talking to Trump Supporters there is a lot of egg legitimate desire for change, legitimate fed up with the establishments, lot of legitimate reasons why people voted for this guy and id hate it to be reduced just to race although clearly there is a racial element. Look at the National Exit polls, Hillary Clinton looks like shes underperforming in the first cut of exit polls, relative to barack obama but donald trump is performing slightly worse than mitt rom any did in 2012. What the difference is, voling for one of the Third Party Candidates or perhaps they are not giving an answer. They may not have votein the president ial race and they may have voted down ballot. That is important to point out. Trump may be doing 1 percentage point bernltd mitt rom any did but did not make inroads against minority populations. Woodruff i was going to say go ahead. Before this election, along white voters, without a College Degree, the biggest margins that wed seen with Ronald Reagan and his blowout election in 1984 he won white noncollege voters with 66 . If you look in some of these early exit polls im looking at florida hes winning, trump with white noncollege voters 64 , 66 of be white noncollege voters in michigan so hes hidden those Record Number levels even as the percent of white noncollege voters has declined, so this is i think explaining the tightness here, its that we talked at the very beginning of the show about the fact that the percent of the electorate thats College Educated has been increasing, what he has done is not increased that vote but hes outperformed almost any candidate sings Ronald Reagan. Woodruff something we have not talked about at all is the Third Party Candidates. As this race gets closer Stuart Stevens, they showed jill stein 2 , gary johnson 5 in many of the polls coming into election day. It was difficult to fathom who were growing the most from. One poll showed it hurt clinton more, one showed it hurt trump more. You have to look at the final margins in virginia and the final margins in florida. It could be in virginia that the mcmulen vote is going to be a significant factor actually, if you think they would go to trump otherwise. But third parties are you know theyre theyre sort of a safe harbor in troubled times often. Sreenivasan david, you mentioned the s p futures, down 3. 3 and the dow futures are down 450 and 500 points. The big business. Woodruff were searching for aterm to describe the democrats. All right, well, weve got a lot to talk about. Third parties, weve just raised it in the last few minutes. Certainly as we closer to 10 00 on the east coast, 7 00 p. M. On the west coast, we have got more polls closing hari at the top of this hour. Sreenivasan we need to take a short break stay with us for a little modifier pbs stations well be back now reporting on local races well be back at the top of the hour when more state polls close and more results are expected. Stay with sooner rather than later when you think of your loved one, it brings a smile to your lips before it brings a tear to your eyes. Well, where the bidens are fortunately i believe were out of time. The time necessary to mount a Winning Campaign for the nomination. Jeff, lets say things worked out differently, biden had decided to step into the race how would things in your mind have shaken out differently . Im kind of ive written a few books. One thing that occurs lot of people say well if biden had won we have wouldnt have had clintons liabilities. Go back to the primary if primary entered the race he and Hillary Clinton would have split a less progressive vote and Bernie Sanders might well have emerged in the primaries with the most delegates. You cant say if biden would have run hed be the next president you have to take into account all the other factors that weigh in a campaign. Biden candidacy would have produced nomination or biden election whole nomination process would have been turned on its head. As you say, Bernie Sanders came in really galvanized certain slice of the democratic vote. Do you think biden would have truncated some of bernies kneel would he have taken some that have for himself . I think Bernie Sanders was his own candidate. The arguments he was making about inequality, about unfairness, was also aimed to some extent at the establishment of the Democratic Party and very hard to see joe biden eight years as Vice President and decades as senator as not part of the establishment. I think it would have been a very tough road for candidacy of joe biden. Jeff greenfield, thank you very much. Our continuing coverage of the president ial election will continue in a moment. Woodruff welcome back to our special pbs newshour coverage of Election Night 2016 im judy woodruff. Sreenivasan im hari sreenivasan. Poles have closed in five additional states thats arizona, iowa, montana, nevada and utah. At this hour here is the Electoral College count as it stands. Donald trump currently has 137 and Hillary Clinton is at 104. 270 is the magic number that they have to reach. Woodruff and we are weve been saying, last few hours with Close Friends here at the table. Amy walter, Andra Gillespie. Mark shields, david brooks, cornell. Weve been saying that night is going on longer and more keeping us in suspense. Were not able to call a winner yet. I think concession is good for the soul. Woodruff you were saying before we went to the break that youre looking at people are i think looked at some of the early exit polls and drawing conclusions how much better donald trump is doing. Than he was expected to. Before we talk about that we have a result. Looks like we have mob ton, projected montana win there are is donald trump, no surprise. Woodruff you see zero percent of the votes have been counted thats because exit polls have been done that make the prognosticators, projectors, and for other news organizations makes them confident. Besides the fact that an day and Stuart Stevens montana has gone republican for along time there was no reason to think it wouldnt. As we were saying, a little bit earlier. The exit polls are showing some surprising strengths for donald trump. In some places. Its still early in the evening. Still early in the evening. I think that strength is that hes performing relatively close to where mitt p. Especially among minority voters. Where we see the surprise not just along racial but age categories that people who are indicating that they voted for Third Party Candidate or who didnt provide an answer to the president ial vote question. Bigger than we would have thought that they would have been. Hillary clinton is underperforming it looks like it may be at the expense of those who opted to go third party route. Or decided to leave it blank. Leave it blank. Woodruff what does that tell us . You know, you wonder about couple of things. One, the assumption that has been made for the last couple of weeks, you saw in all the modeling that came out, percent chance of Hillary Clinton from 98 to 70 . And whether this was based on faulty polling, going to definitely be a question. Well be asking ourselves. The second is did it send a signal especially to voters who were never particularly excited about Hillary Clinton, shes going to win anyway, you know what, im just going to check the box for Third Party Candidate. And were spreeing that in some of the National Polls here this is exit polls, again, going to continue to be updated but fact that shes just not getting the margins among younger voters, not getting margins we would have thought she would have seen among latino voters, 65 is impressive number but it is not in the 7080 category that based on what youd be hearing from nevada and florida and expecting. Im talking about the percent of the vote that she would be getting. David brooks, the notion of these voters to leave it blank thats their protest in itself. It could be. Certainly could be. This is just bigger swing. Ive spent the year looking at projection models, 8390 that shes going to win remind me never to do that again. That was stupid waste of time. Well talk to them. Have my office is disturbingly near them. A great job. Not realizing my im not looking at michigan, im hitting refresh on michigan, i do think dash this is something the National Journal wrote which was, weve all focused on the swing states, supposed swing states, virginia which looks like shes going to go okay in. North carolina, the florida, maybe trump can pull sort of a back door and get her soft under belly which is michigan and wisconsin now michigan looks very much in place, stay obama won like lets look at i wanted to hear from you. Can we look at some of those numbers coming in from the states where the polls have been closed for a little while can we look what the numbers are. With whatever percent of the vote is in, david is checking michigan im interested in michigan, wisconsin, some of the other states where the polls have closed. Were not ready to project a winner might give us some sense lets be clear that the path now runs through michigan. Pennsylvania and nevada shes got to have virginia. We start doing electoral map right now if he takes one of those, done. Woodruff state that we can all for Hillary Clinton, is that right . The state of new mexico. Lets she what we have here. All right. Land of enchantment. New mexico going for Hillary Clinton. Not a surprise. This was a state she was expected to win. But trump made a late play in with the hopes that gary johnson would pull enough of the vote away. That is state that until recently, by recently meaning this was very competitive state. The fact that she put that one in her column is good news. I think david is exactly right. At the very beginning of this election, the whole mantra for donald trump was could he make a break in these states. What was of going to bust through . No effort was ever made to actually register, turn out voters in places like michigan, lot of time in pennsylvania. The fact that michigan on our list right now, this late in the game is quite remarkable. She has done more to protect that area. This is the point right. It does say theres something about the appeal of donald trump that doesnt require people going out and getting people to and trade. Trade was a big deal. Trade was a big deal. But lets be honest. We talk about the diminishing white noncollege, were talking two out of five voters in the country. Were surprised that Hillary Clinton isnt getting 90 of the African American vote, 75 latino vote. This is a group that really is for first time in recent memory voting in a self conscious bloc. I think its fair to say. We talk about the diminishing size of the constituent see. Democrats have made great efforts at the lgbtq community. They have been prideful about it, active about it, visible about it. 5 . 5 of the electorate. This is 40 . I think its fair to say that while the face of that group had been norma rae in american cull tray under norman lear it became archie bunker. They were treated with little disdain and disrespect i dont think theres any question that donald trump tapped into it. Woodruff we can pick up on that. I think another call that we can make at this point. I think this is state of missouri. Is going to go in Donald Trumps column. At 60 . Is that expected, Stuart Stevens . Yes. I think sreenivasan also looks like another call. The iowa Senate Chuck Grassley no surprise. I think actually those numbers were anyway. Projection is also in the utah senate, mike lee, one of the people that came in on the tea party wave. And lets head out to clinton headquarters john yang out there. John, you know, our guest pool has evaporated from the folks that weve been trying to line up in the clinton exam top show up. What have you got . Im sorry, were here with former governor of michigan. Your state has been big in this Campaign Last couple of days. Hillary clinton went president obama went back. What is going on in your state right now . Well, i do think this there is very real economic anxiety that is reflected in many other states, too. But particularly acute in michigan. So, trumps message about trade resonated. Her message about trade also. A similar message. Unless they create jobs in america that was really powerful message for michigan. I think michigan is going to be very close but i think in the end it will go to her. In fact one of the newspapers, the free press, called it for her already tonight. Well see whether that pans out. Bottom line michigan is always let me just say, i was democratic governor but i had republican house, republican senate, republican Supreme Court, Republican Attorney general, republican secretary of state. Everybody assumes democratic states in president ial years. But not always true. Been divided state. A lot of talk also in the closing days of the campaign about black turn out. Of the African American vote. What are you hearing about the turn out in wayne countyish detroit . I think as we always there was a bit of rain today. Detroit vote is not as high as we want. Here is where i think she may have made it up is in the latino vote which 5 of our population is latino. And in the arab american vote which there is 300,000 arab americans in the wayne county area. They came out overwhelmingly for her her. May have been offset. The lower turn out. Well see how it comes out. It was not an early vote state, there was not lot of candidate time until the very last weekend. You always wish if youre in that state you want them there all the time. Youd love to have that happen. But realistically, clinton team had very shrewd plan which is they were going to spend time 23489 early vote states when that counted votes in state where theres game day vote meaning they didnt have early votes when that counted thats why you saw her in New Hampshire and pennsylvania and michigan at the very end. Thats true with the trump team, too. You can only spend so much your ill say this, in michigan, we also had some hints because we had early had absentee voting which came in which is we had a 50,000 vote margin on the democratic side for those absentee votes. There was a sense that there was banking of the votes. Well see what the end turns out. It will be close. Ultimately i think shell win. You dont sound terribly confident. You know, if the free press called it, to me that is they know michigan really well. I feel very good about that. Governor jennifer gramhold is op toe municipals particular. That expects it to be very close. Back to you in the studio. Woodruff thank you, john. And thanks to governor granhold you grabbed her at the right moment. We were just talking about michigan when she appeared there at clinton headquarters. Now, lets turn to our Jeffrey Brown, he is at trump headquarters in midtown manhattan at the hilton hotel. Jeff, mr. Trump is keeping it close, that has to inject a Little Energy into the crowd l. Absolutely it has, here. I was going to tell you just as we were coming, it quiet the down a little bit. Certainly the energy level has raised when we were talking an hour ago. Room has filled up. Its a much more loud and talkative and paying attention to all of these races. Interestingly enough, as the incomplete results that were seeing because so many of the races are so tied. But as results are shown, this crowd cheers because that means, thats very good for this hall to see how close, how competitive and increasing possibility that mr. Trump will win some of these key races. I should say that this crowd is largely an overwhelmingly a white crowd. It is a well healed crowd or well turned out for tonight. Ive asked some people, are you surprised to see what is going on they say, no. But that Shows Confidence they have. The largest boos i can tell you of the night were when new york was called for Hillary Clinton, were in new york after all. Loudest boo of all when senator Chuck Schumer was called, not a popular powerful democratic senator here. I asked when official, Trump Officials about some of the key races they still say that they are feeling good about ohio and florida. And i was able to ask about georgia, why it still hasnt been called because that one surprised me a little bit. He said, georgia will be fine. Thats the feeling im getting here still. A cautious optimism but certainly more energy and more confidence than we were feeling earlier in the evening. Woodruff jeff, were just glad that you are able to get close enough to some of the people there in the audience. We know both of these campaigns like to keep the press away sometimes from its absolutely. The press is kept away, same as rally, very hard one little area you can get to mingle a little bit. But its not easy. I was telling you earlier in the evening so packed in here, its not your typical event where you can mingle all that much. We do the best we can. Woodruff Jeffrey Brown, thank you, well be back to you. Sreenivasan weve got senate race to call in North Carolina where incumbent richard burv projected winner. This House Speaker paul ryan came tout to speak, lets take a quick listen if we have that videotape cued up. Youve heard me say this before im fifth generation native of this town, ive lived mere almost my entire life. Ive known most of you for years if not decades. We have grown up together. We share this community together. Its a great place. In a wonderful state in the best country god ever created. [ applause ] and i am so eager to get back to work for you, to get on with fixing our countrys problems, we have so much potential in this country, so much potential. And if we can just have it, thats whats ahead. By some accounts i just been sitting there watching the polls, some accounts this could be really good night for ameri america. This could be good night for us. Fingers crossed. Like you, im eager to watch, lot of races, we want to watch ron johnsons race, all the others. Thats a race we want to watch. Like you im eager to watch the rest. Evening. Im eager to enjoy this evening with you so thank you so much for coming out. God bless you all. Appreciate it. [ applause ] thank you, everyone. Woodruff republican speaker the house paul ryan talking to his supporters in wisconsin, he comfortably won his reelection, celebrating the fact that i guess all the news organizations projected that the republicans will keep control of the house. Stuart steveings, we also just before we went to paul ryan projected that richard burr will hang on to his senate seat in North Carolina winning second term. That was one democrats spent lot of effort in to, thought this they might be able to turn that blue. I think the Republican Senatorial committee deserves a lot of credit for standing behind these candidates, really running, i think, since ive seen since ive been dealing witness. Lot of controversial because they spent early in these races. And they couldnt be there, most of them, with the amount of money that they spent earlier. But i think it was smart strategy at the time. It kept people in the race. Really i think those guys were having a big night. Woodruff democrats thought debra ross was a lawyer, former director for the aclu in the state of North Carolina had very appealing scanned daylight she led by a little bit part of the time. Amy walter, the race has gone back and forth. Actually, it was a surprise that she had gotten that close. Democrats had hoped to have more high profile candidate. She was not their top pick. They were actually quite surprised how close this race was. In part because richard burr had decided to wait until basically last noint start campaigning, he says, start campaigning until after labor day it looks like he was correct. There were lot of republicans who were frustrated, we had so to spend way too much money in the race. Key have put this one away. But most important thing about North Carolina race is that now its not taking democratic chances for winning the senate off the table. But its coming really close. We are now closer to a 5050 senate. If not Republicans Holding on. Sreenivasan all right. A little bit of talk that texas may turn blue this election, a shade of purpose, emily from the Texas Tribune joins us. What are we seeing . Well, we arent seeing very much purple, very red state. Texas has been called red for donald trump. What we are seeing is a smaller margin than usual, right now trump up by six or seven Percentage Points in texas. That is basically a 20year record. We havent seen numbers that close with democrats and republicans in two decades. Much closer race than usual, certainly red state. Woodruff Emily Ramshaw, we know that democrats have pointed at texas not this they predicted to win but this is a state with the rising latina vote, some African American vote, frankly enough well educated white voters who may have Democratic Party may be able to appeal to them. But the republicans cant count on texas forever. You know, democrats keep saying that i think they were hopeful they might real surge to the polls this year, the Sleeping Giant of the latino voting population. We are seeing down ballot races, some republican latinos in the legislature, and a congressman whose race is tight. There will be repercussions given how close the trumpclinton race is. Sreenivasan in the lines today, if you see this urge of latino voters who showed up same day . Its hard to determine yet if theres going to be record turn out. We know that early voting turn out was high, particularly among latino and other minority voters. Still too early to tell here tonight. We are seeingco very long lines, some concerns about voter i. D. Ruling here. Even one person arrested for trying to vote twice. We have seen some voting issues here today but probably not out of line compared to some other states. Woodruff emily, pointing out again texas second most populous state in the country of course one of the senators from the state of texas, ted cruz, was the last challenger to donald trump to drop out. I think lot of people are expect that he would like to run for president again. He hasnt said that. Any repercussions from the tension between two of them . There was question whether he was going to show up at the Republican Convention, did he. He didnt say Donald Trumps name, i guess he reluctantly finally said his name this week. But its been not been closest relationship. No. Ted cruz was out on the campaign trail this past week with pence trying to sort of help the ticket at the very bitter end here. Even out on the road with pence he hardly referred to donald trump by name. I think theres still some bad blood there. Cruz has a little bit of Relationship Building to do, well see how the night turns out but may have very big Relationship Building to do. Sreenivasan any of the other issues that drove texas voters to the polls . Mostly about president ial race . Absolutely about president ial race. Weve had lot of challenges here with voter i. D. Legislation, that was overturned, there has been a question in the courts. That drove lot of folks to the polls. Really you saw latino voting population along the border in el paso that was mobilized by some of Donald Trumps verb i cant think around immigration issues. Woodruff Emily Ramshaw reporting from the from texas, Texas Tribune editor, thank you very much. Happy to be here. Sreenivasan head over to Lisa Desjardins on where we are in the all important race foreseen at. Thats right. Where we are is that the critical hour i think for whether democrats will control the United States senate or not. As amy walter was just talking about, the richard burr is retaining his seat is very big deal for republicans. I dont think the story of the night is president ial race donald trump getting as close as what he is. But that republicans have chance to retain majority is huge. They started this cycle defending 24 seats compared to ten for democrats now were hat the point of the night where we have five outstanding races New Hampshire, ohio, pennsylvania, nevada and wisconsin. If donald trump is elected president , democrats need to win all five of those for majority. If Hillary Clinton is elected, democrats need to win four out of five for control. The path is there, because of North Carolina its gotten significantly more narrow. Weve talked so much about donald trump needed to run a table but right now Senate Democrats have to run a table. And lets talk about one of those races that is going to be key, wisconsin. Take look whats going on this is ron johnsons race you heard speaker ryan talk about this in his remarks that hes watching this race very closely. This is one that i think fair to say, democrats have counted as being in the bags. Lets look at the results for the Wisconsin Senate race were seeing in results over the wires are that they actually ron johnson ahead at this moment. These numbers important to stay, this is 42 reporting, we have not seen all of dane county where madison is, a big liberal area of the state. All that have has not come in 30 has. Milwaukee has come in. Image in a world where also ron johnson stays in office. Actually nathan toss back because weve got some news. Woodruff sorry to interrupt we have call to make in the all important state of ohio. That is donald trump is projected winner as you can see right now not all the votes are in. But it has been expected that trump would win this is you have to say, david brooks, democrats were hoping they could pull it out, Hillary Clinton spent lot of time there. Especially earlier on in this race. They may not need it to win but sure would have been nice for the democrats. Yeah. Obviously was l swing state. Because its a more right state industrial state. Have to look at the map that were looking at right now and think that the economic anxiety jennifer talked about this earlier that republican arguments on trade and immigration and deindustrialization arguments were dominant. Thats where hes doing well. No republican has ever been elected without carrying ohio. Only two democrats have won white house without carrying ohio. Roosevelt and john ken door. In 1944 the republican senator was the republican candidate for Vice President. I think it is its significant. Just makes it that much harder. I think it becomes steeper climb for clinton. Michigan is a different case because michigan had voted within 1 of the country in the three elections prior to 1992. It was almost narrow metric. Then became three to four percent more democratic than the rest of the country did. It was uncontested in 12, just lay down case for barack obama. So that is michigan i think is the sleeper, no doubt that the efforts were late efforts were real. They were not just illusionary that they had to go in there make an effort. Id say that to me real surprise of the evening. Woodruff another state to call right now this is one weve been waiting for. Hillary clinton winner in the state of virginia. Shes projected the winner. This one, amy walter, took a lot longer than i think some people thought it would. It did. Although i am reminded, i should do this every year, go back remember how long some of these states take Northern Virginia is notoriously slow at getting the returns in. So when Northern Virginia came in, this again it is a more diverse part of the state. Lot of white educated voters put her over the top. What we have mr. Close election. She has not lost any states she was supposed quote, spotted to win, virginia, new mexico. But she did not quinn ohio which we had assumed she was going to. And florida sit too close to call. All of these were fitting into what we had as projects. Real question now as mark pointed out, the michigan, the pennsylvania, those are states that we considered while not safe for Hillary Clinton not as stave as virginia or new mexico we had them slightly to her advantage. Woodruff we wait, florida, we await North Carolina. Those are states that again as i understand it she doesnt have to win those in order to pull off victory but it will certainly make it light more comfortable. Sreenivasan the national happen up there explains the 122168 that is standing at this point. 10 30 east coast time. This is how the map is shaping up while she still wait. I had a question for Stuart Stevens, as we saw paul ryan give his acceptance speech there, the potential of a presidency with donald trump, this relationship with he and trump, had ha public falling o out. He went out said my First Priority house stays republican, got that Mission Accomplished might have to work with a person who he doesnt seem to respect very much. Its incredibly difficult situation. Having worked with speaker ryan in the romney campaign, i think that donald trump would be, as he has said least likely favorite candidate to win republican nomination. Then the presidency. Its a very difficult situation, difficult for the party hes Going Forward. I was wrong about how trump would do. I thought he would be doing much worse. I wouldnt want to project how that would work out. One thing, this may be a situation, mark shields can speak to this, the vp pick made a difference in winning a state. Because with virginia as tight as it is, it seems you have to come to the conclusion without kaine might have lost it. I think there are two things to go there. As somebody who grew up in the richmond area, tim kaine is great. Also you keep in mind the governor is very good friends with bill and Hillary Clinton. It would be really hard to separate which was which. The reality is, richmond going to go democratic. The county which is increasingly more diverse. So its not surprising that the area kaine is known best went democratic. Just to show just a difference in the state and again to highlight the challenges for both of these candidates, Hillary Clinton did nine points better than barack obama in Arlington County which is heavily democratic area. Were in it right now. Buchanan county which is more rural county that is much smaller but she did 13 points worse. And buchanan county, by the way, percent of the electorate that is white has a College Degree is 9 . Woodruff that means Hillary Clinton the white former first lady is not doing as well. As doing as well in these rural parts of the state. That much worse than barack obama did. Woodruff cornell were talking about breaking the election tort up into pieces in parts. But as the night goes along, its inevitable were looking at women, looking at whites, blacks, education, less education. I think by the way, the Clinton Campaign i wasnt going to believe that. Woodruff we werent going to let you do that. But youre right. Virginia and sister states, North Carolina, begin to resemble each other you look at the triangle there in North Carolina does it look to look more like Northern Virginia and tide water also very key there. Coming in there, it is one of the states getting more educated and less white and we are holding on to those. Woodruff were going to now go back to the trump Head Quarters in new york city to former Republican Congressman Jack Kingston from georgia. Hello, former congressman we dont have president ial call yet in georgia is that a little bit surprising . Well, i think its going to get there sooner than later. But with georgia weve felt were i tell what you is going to i dont know if your camera picks it up. The enthusiasm of this crowd here tonight. Theyre all waking make America Great again hats. I guess along campaign trail. Sreenivasan wanted to ask you, is there something that you saw in the georgia electorate over the past few weeks and months that you thought resonated with other voters around the country on why they would support donald trump . You know, i think a lot of it is the change, after a president has been in office eight years people want to do something different. Hillary clinton was basically running on a third term which she did not separate herself from barack obama. Owes specially this last week or two. I think part is just that urge for change. But i think also when donald trump laid out his agenda consistently whether it was immigration, security, building a wall, obamacare, renegotiating trade agreements, talking about more conservative judges, energy, infrastructure, lower taxes. I think those are the things that people started saying, you know what, that is different, that is new, i want to do that. Hillary clinton is excellent candidate as you know, but still cant tell you five things she stands for you. Donald trump it does come quickly. Its obamacare. The wall. Its taxes. It is energy, regulatory reform. I think that really makes a difference for undecided voter that he becomes less of unknown quantity. Less of gamble when he talks about a platform. That would be true for any candidate. Woodruff do you think this there is one issue that overrode the others whether its trade, immigration, that you think touched voters most deeply when think think about donald trump this year . Yes, i think it is. I think that issue of health care. When Barack Obama Says average family would save 2500 on Health Care Premium and keep their own doctors and families found out that was not the case, that you have premiums did in fact go up, of course georgia probably about 20 increase but North Carolina 40 . Pennsylvania 53 . Arizona 116 . c c c i think that is an issue that was less discussed in public on tv but probably more discussed at the Kitchen Table made big difference in the voting booth. Sreenivasan i was wondering, is there something that youre hearing from the people that are in that crowd tonight that makes you think that a Trump Presidency is actually likely . Its not out of the realm of possibility, that there is a path to 270 there are states that perhaps surge of support for donald trump has showed up tonight . Yes. Weve always known that if we do well in florida and North Carolina and ohio and georgia, arizona and utah along with the other republican states well be at 253 bee have to have michigan and pennsylvania and colorado Second District of maine if we get to that magic 250 number, then we have couple of different pathways. I think what people are seeing is even in virginia which we lost we only have lost it by a little bit. That tim kaines home state. We werent ever really planning on it. It was a pleasant surprise just to be competitive there. And one thing about this election they are national. You might lose california but if you keep the margin low you are going to do better in other states, but perhaps swing states are some that are on the edge. Pennsylvania, for example, it hasnt gone republicans since is the 88, last time it was the sixth closest state. Pennsylvania doesnt look like a swing state but in fact is very close to being a swing state thats why we campaign so hard there. Sreenivasan Jack Kingston joining froes trump Head Quarters, thank you very much. Woodruff in the state of colorado. I believe its a president ial, yes, it is. Hillary clinton declared the winner in the centennial state. You can see not all the votes are in only in the hundreds of thousands. But shes projected to be the winner. Amy walter thats ha big not that the republicans didnt contest colorado they didnt contest it quite as strongly as they did some of the other states. But Clinton Campaign actually was one that had pulled out of there like virginia early on. Really concentrated their forces on florida, North Carolina, pennsylvania. The fact that again shes held virginia, colorado very important for her. But the michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin and New Hampshire super critical. Sreenivasan president ial his torial Michael Beschlossa you see these results come in, put this in some perspective. Is it like this every four years, eight years, where it comes down to the wire like this . No. Not quite some breathtaking, hari, but ive been listening to all the things weve been talking about trying to explain what is for many peoples Donald Trumps unexpected strength in the fact that this race is so close. Certainly has lot to do with his positions on trade and immigration, health care and so on id like to suggest something else, an additional influence. That is that if you look to american history, it is usually extremely hard for one Political Party to hold on to the white house three terms in a row. For instance, when george h. W. Bush was running in 1988 to succeed two terms of Ronald Reagan he referred to it as Martin Van Burens problem. Referring to the fact that no Vice President had been elected to succeed the president he served since 1836. We have seen that in recent times, for instance, 1976, gerald ford came very close to holding on to the white house this would have been a third term for republicans, lost narrowly late at night while losing two states. Then of course the most famous one in recent times was 2000, time when al gore was running at the heir to bill clinton some say running for clintons third term time there was enormous peace and prosperity compared to later on. Yet al gore in the end came so close that went to the Supreme Court. Woodruff interesting you point that out, Michael Beschloss, whatever people wondered about how Hillary Clinton is going to run this campaign certainly at the end it has been a full flat out embrace of the president barack obama, his administration, policies, hardly been any daylight between the two of them except on trade policy. Thats exactly right. As you know, judy, people were relying on the fact that Barack Obamas approval rate song high. So that was behind that decision to tie her to his coat tails but the fact that as his secretary of state would have been hard for her to establish a lot of daylight between them. But i think the point is that in retrospect, one thing that keeps on recurring to me tonight, barack obama, president obama, i think it was earlier this year, referred to the fact that sometimes voters like that new car smell, that was the term he used. What was what he was referring to was the fact that after two terms of even a president who still pretty popular sometimes people like what they dont have. Woodruff which when he was elected he was coming after a president geyer who at that point in his patsy was not so popular. He was benefiting from that. And who should know better than he. Sreenivasan is it traditional that you see increase in popularity on almost the way out the door of a president . No, it really isnt. Thats why its so unusual here. As you remember, president obama especially when unemployment was so high had hard time. Although in recent times, for instance, bill clinton even after the impeachment crisis for him of 9899 left office pretty popular i think as gallup poll was in the 60s. Ronald reagan in 1988 even after iran can tray had very high Approval Rating as well. Usually in a twoterm presidency you will see in a second term sort of a slump but often sometimes amount the end they come up. But perhaps not as surprisingly or as sharply as happened with president obama. Woodruff historian Michael Beschloss joining us, thank you very much. Ill stay tuned. Woodruff see you a little bit later. We want to talk now about pennsylvania. It certainly has been a key battleground throughout this election both candidates spent a lot of time there, lot of money estimate dont have results. Lets check in with dave davies with pbs in philadelphia whyy. What is going on, polls closed couple of hours ago. In fact more than that. No results yet. Just enormous amount of tension people feel lot at stake. Hillary clinton has led into the polls coming in. The sense i got on the street, one of the big concerns was, would the large African American population in philadelphia embrace hillary in the numbers that they did barack obama. That there would be concern that would be a let down. As the first African American president left office. My sense going around the city today talking to a lot of an African Americans folks was that they met every expectation in terms of turn out. So the battle then turns to other parts of the state particularly the philadelphia suburbs where donald trump needs to do well. And i think thats the big question that remains. Sreenivasan dave, it was so crucial that they wanted to make their last stop right there in front of independence hall. This was she was lifted rally telling people who times the polls closed, she was reminding them down to that granular level how important it was to moat separate and mobilize philly in surrounding subjectz she was here, bill clinton was here, president and Michelle Obama and bruce springsteen. Their internal polling was making them nervous about hanging on to the state which they held for the last 26 years as we just heard. I sensed lot of enthusiasm i talked to a lot of people into that really nobody said they were there to hear bruce springsteen. People are inspired and committed to voting. But trumps folks are out there in the central and western parts of the state, ive heard turn out was robust out there as well. He has defined expectations for the past year. I think theres lot of drama yet to play out here. Woodruff weve looked at your state, weve all looked at it closely because 27 electoral votes, but i guess my question is, you look at the philadelphia suburbs which used to be reliably republican, been pointed out turned more democratic. Opposite thing happened in the western part of the state. The pittsburgh and the former steel town area there. What do you see in that regard . Is there a reliable pattern to how pennsylvania votes at all Going Forward . Ive checked the results the last five elections, republicans have lost the philadelphia suburbs in the last several elections, including in 2010 when senator pat tammy won. He still lost the suburbs. I dont think donald trump will win the philadelphia suburbs but has to cut into Hillary Clintons margins. I just looked at a return from Chester County one of those counties with mitt romney won by 10 votes it was competitive four years ago. That same township voted for Hillary Clinton by margin of 4 45450 that would be very good news for Hillary Clinton. If that kind of pattern holds throughout the suburbs. Gut if it were the kind of romping win that you might expect i suspect the exit polls would have have forecast as win for hillary. We havent seen that. Woodruff i need to correct what i said i said the 20 electorate votes how could i gets that wrong . Lot to remember mere. Sreenivasan when you look at that map, seems that corners or pockets of blue are just in the urban areas, pittsburgh, maybe a little bit around allentown, philly, then huge swaths of red. They call it the t. If you look at the southeast and southwest portion sevenday forecast state where democrats reside in great numbers. You have the center and then northwestern and northeastern edges creating a t thats always been the republican stronghold. The republicans will probably carry 55 of the states, 67 counties. Onethird of the registered voters in the state live in the five county philadelphia area. That is a huge battleground. Woodruff i want to ask you dave davies if youre hearing about the senate race, thats another one that weve been watching very closely. Pat twomeey reply incumbent, any tea leaves you can read . When i looked at the suburban communities that gave me a meaningful result on the president ial race the result was razor thin. Going to be up late on this one. This is interesting one because pat twomey is one of the more conservatives, he hes been endorsed by gabby gird. Hes prepared himself as pragmatic, moderate in the suburbs. A ton of money has come fin around the country. Woodruff we have another senate race to call in colorado. The democratic incumbent senator Michael Bennett is the projected winner. I think we didnt think that was going to be close. Michael bennett running for his second term in the senate. Cornell belcher, daryl glenn was serious candidate. Somebody who has taken seriously in the state of colorado but republican candidate. Still early. I think that his marge sing to go grow. Democrat has lost a senate seat. When you look at pennsylvania probably think hasnt elected woman statewide, tell me if im wrong on that. I think still pathway for democrats. Hopes are still alive. Woodruff because of what you see in pennsylvania. And holding colorado. Attorney general who was woman who just was not on her own. Just one point of personal privilege. Apologies to stuart, i was wrong about louisiana you asked about louisiana. Bill clinton did carry louisiana. I knew jimmy carter did. Bill clinton had. Ronald reagans job rating on election day of 1988 was 56 . Favorable. The same as Barack Obamas which is interesting. Got boost on the way out. I just thought that barack obama at 56 campaigning as hard as he did i thought it would give her a boost, maybe gave it a boost maybe hat 39 he got her to 44. We also also heard that john mccain gave speech, acceptance speech in arizona indicated that his last election to audible gasps in the room. Thats woodruff thats news. Its really interesting. There are number of okay that that garyians who were running who have done well we need to be repped that six years these people may decide not to run again. Hell be 86 by the end of woodruff by the end of this term. Lets go back over to our colleague Lisa Desjardins with Nathan Gonzales of the report. What a night. Looks like were having nail biters right now both in control of the white house and control of the u. S. Senate although as weve been saying the case is getting tougher for democrats to take over the senate, one key race that were watching heard people talk about nathan, is pennsylvania. Lets look at the results right now tell me what you see look, this is the balance of power. This shows seats in the u. S. Senate. These are all the senate races that have been called right now we have 42 members who would caulk with us democrats plus two independents and 46 republicans. Thats pretty close as it is. Like i said Pennsylvania Senate race looks like it could be important. Why so importanty do you think its so close where it stems . Everything is close. Everything is important right now. All whats interesting, mcginty, we had as toss up, democrats felt like had wind at her back going in. Fell like she was up by couple of points. Pat toomey never able to put himself put distance between himself and donald trump. In terms of the polls. So this is a tight race. As we talked about everything is a must win for democrats at this point. I wouldnt look at the county that we just heard, Chester County, pennsylvania, i spent a lot of time. Hi, guys. Here is what is interesting about this county. Right now mcginty is barely ahead, pat toomey was leading all night. In the senate race. And nathan if you look at the president ial race in Chester County Hillary Clinton is leading by more. Hillary clinton is outperforming the democrats in that swing county where democrat is winni winning. That bodes well for Hillary Clinton and pennsylvania in general. Possible tee for mcagain tee. Tell you about margins. Hillary clinton doing well but is she doing well enough. This is an area that were looking at for house races, the lancaster county, pennsylvania 16th district which is open seat where a republican is retiring. Theres some among republicans as donald trump was struggling about maybe that race would switch. But i think it looks like that time of the night have to break in. Hari judy. Woodruff this is big one state of florida, which is held other president ial elections in the balance, we are projecting that donald trump will be the winner in the sunshine state. You can see there is still ten million votes counted so far, they are still coming in is it 99 arting i cant tell if if that is the right number. Its down to the wire, hari in terms of the votes to come in. Donald trump projected to win. Amy, this makes Hillary Clintons path even when we would do the math and projections of how one candidate gets to 270 or another. You can take florida off the map for Hillary Clinton she has other pathways but assuming that she wins wisconsin and michigan and New Hampshire. Those are not a given at this point in the campaign. The other thing i wanted to say, we spent lot of time talking about women and gender gap. I think race gap, we need to talk about fact that men are turning out at a much higher proportion for donald trump. Than weve seen in recent elections, this is a National Poll that shes winning men by 12 points. Romney won men by. Hillary clinton winning women by 12, but that is sort of normal for what Democratic Candidates get. Its a wash when it comes to the gender gap that is particularly notable. Woodruff what does that suggest to you . Its why donald trump is having a good night. I think this is a big surprise that donald trump is doing . Well. Republican party to a level i was surprised by, normalized donald trump. That really helped him in places like ohio where even though governor and the senate candidates, senator, were against him. I think i wonder how many of those decisions were made by individual Republican Office holders based on the assumption that trump would lose. For long time, dirty little secret has been, that many Republican Leaders wanted donald trump to lose. I think speaking out in these states, as some did if you look at mike lee, if you looknhi nebraska, its interesting. But you have to give the Trump Campaign lot of credit to this. Woodruff closing in on the 11 00 hour in the east. Mark shields. Because thats true. All kinds of people, plenty to go to iowa tomorrow. Arkansas already been there, ben sass of nebraska had adamantly, honorably refused to support donald trump from the beginnings. Mitt romney emerged as a mythical figure as man of conscience. And all of that, is going to be, if not forgot ebb at least discounted if in fact donald trump puts it together. Hes on the cusp of doing it. His route to 20 right now is 270 right now is clear. Im not saying its imperative or determined. But he has a clear path. Woodruff we have 15 seconds, david brooks . I mean he won ohio by 11 so far is big. And wisconsin and michigan where hes up by two or three with 60 in a little more like ohio than other places. Sreenivasan take short break for pbs stations to report their local races our coverage will continue in just a moment. Here at pbs stalking with Jeff Greenfield in new york. Weve been talking tonight about some of the crucial moments in the campaign that have gotten us to today. Obviously for Clinton Campaign Ongoing Investigation by the fbi in to her use of private server and her email has been constant thorn in her side. What in that has stood out to you . Its almost like a tale of three letters. Or tale of three comments by director of the fbi james comey. For clip contam pain went from salvation to despair to resurrection perhaps. Im here to give you update on the fbis investigation of secretary clintons use of personal email system during her time at secretary of state. What we did not find clear evidence that secretary clinton or her colleagues intended to violate laws governing the handling of classified information, there is evidence that they were extremely careless in their handling of very sensitive, highly classified information. Although department of justice makes final decisions on matters like this, we are expressing to justice our view that no charges are appropriate in this case. Most cases if the fbi director comes out says we dont think theres any reason to charge you, that is pretty good news. Did it strike that you way for clinton . Well, when you consider what happened with the as ever news organization, the bombshell, nine or ten days ago that they discovered new emails then two days before election saying, well, like saturday night live never mind. Theyre not important that was body blow second announcement. They took a hit. What i do think is that director comey managed to anger all sides by his shifting ground of what he was saying. I think theres going to be lot of questions when this is over what the roll is of federal Police Agency in the midst of president ial campaign. This is a really striking intervention if you think about it, right . Youre a scholar of president ial history when was the l time you can think of where the fbi was playing such a pivotal role in the lead up to an election . Closest analogy to this just before the 1992 campaign, special prosecuter looking into the iran contra affair issued statement to influence george her barred walker bush for having knowledge of the affair. Bush campaign felt that was a low and late blow just before 1992 election. Thats closest i can come to an example like this. Jeff greenfield, im william gang ham 2349 president ial election will continuish a moment. Sreenivasan live pbs coverage. Im hari sreenivasan. Im judy woodruff. Polls have closed in five more states. California, the big enchilada. Hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington state. Were sitting here at our table waiting for results to come in, we know a little bit about how number of states have gone tonight. David brooks, but we dont know everything. We dont know who is going to be the winner. What we are reading on the News Wire Services that the markets, Financial Markets around the world, asian markets, mexican pes okay are plunging because donald trump seems to be edging closer to a possible victory. Im calling this election to Vladimir Putin hes having a good night. We dont know who is going to win. Im following my friends and texting, theyre overpanicking. It look like as i keep saying were looking at michigan, wisconsin, especially michigan its very close. And we could hang down to that. Also have lot of weird circumstances by the end of the night she could win the popular vote, wind up with 269269 lot of very bizarre things when you get close election like this you leave yourself open for lot ofni weirdness and lot of divisiv divisiveness. Donald trump has permanently changed the Republican Party for long time and we do know that Hillary Clinton has even if she weeks through not going to week through with any sort of wind at her back. Woodruff mark shields. Dirty little secret was wanted donald trump leadershi leadership want him to lose big. Whatever happens tonight hes not losing big. Theres no reason for him to go away. Hes going to be here. Get used to him. He is now on the scene. Hes exceeded expectations. Expectations set by us, hes exceeded them doctor mat the peso could complicated to get mexico to build a wall. Because its going to be more expensive. I just think it shows the surprise that a trump surge has meant for financial community, for everybody involved. Woodruff reminds us that our election watched not only by aericans but all around the world, thats always the case. Probably nor so. Now more results to call in the physical tall race. Sreenivasan Hillary Clinton is projected winner in the state with the most electoral votes, california. Thats with 55 electoral votes. Washington state with 12 electoral votes. And hawaii with four electoral votes. Donald trump projected winner in idaho with four electoral votes. Woodruff on to Stuart Stevens, this is nice the whole world is watching, stuart . Yes. Ultimately Republican Party that was antiputin and wasnt 45 and 35 trade barriers. But you have to say, that other part of the parties having good night. Donald trump to degree i think that people cant really focus on would be change in foreign policy. More so than any nominee weve had. I dont consider that pro. But hes having a good night. One 69 things thats interesting about it, im going to try this to trade and globalism, is evangelical vote. Might be risks along gender lines, right now suggests theres 8020 split. One of the things that i noticed going into this race that there was lot of talk about elections. They also framed in terms of globalism. Court has more to do with it but also this feel of globalism tied. Other types of this ease if you will with globalism. And this notion that america was giving up too much of the sovereignty that is objection to trade. Also ties into things like how much do you get entities at the u. N. For world trade organization. Were seeing that reflected in this vote. Woodruff brexit was the british vote which few people saw coming amy walter. And those of us, ive had these conversations, where said, look, this is very different from brexit it was very close at the end. It was tied. Fact that it went one way wasnt that surprising. This race was looking less like a tie, all the projections, am the last polls coming out had Hillary Clinton up somewhere between two and five points. This country such more diverse than europe. That because europe because the u. K. So overwhelmingly white, that we couldnt have the same sort of election in country like ours where again you said to me, this morning, electorate is going to be 0 white, that suggested that it was going took look better for Hillary Clinton than it did for barack obama i think made this point. Not only is he doing better among noncollege white voters, rural areas, running up the places that romney did well but not as well but that he shes not doing as well with latino voters, African American voters and asian voters. Some go to third party but shes not getting any bigger of a margin among those groups than barack obama. Thats the problem. The whole year worried about this like what percentage is going to cast protest vote. Seems as though lot of the electorate cast protest vote. If you talk electorate will be white this time around i said, i dont think wed worry right now. Apparently those protest voters were serious about their protest vote and her percentage, by the way, doing even less well among white voters than barack obama more to that polarization. Shes doing less well and less well with minority voters. Woodruff we have state to call. North carolina, one weve been sitting here waiting for that that donald trump is projected winner in the tar heel state. I think mark shields, david brooks, that was another one that the Clinton Campaign put a lot of effort into. Barack obama did not win it the last time but won in 2008. And Clinton Campaign said they didnt have to win it but sure did put some sweat equity. Enormous effort. It was mitt romneys closest victory in 2012. Georgia was second closest, i dont think we still had georgia called have we to this moment . Woodruff no. Which is rather remarkable. Somebody told me that North Carolina would be called before georgia tonight. But that is disappointment. Do we have the governors race in North Carolina . Woodruff not called that. We have not called that race yet. That was a big of those three. Twothirds now gone to the republicans, richard burr and mitt romney carrying North Carolina. Woodruff look how close it is. These are latest numbers from North Carolina with 92 of the precincts reporting. 4948. Mccrory is ahead. Just a few weeks ago because of that because of the discrimination law that governor pushed ahead. It helps the governor. If a governor performs abley in town of calamity, in reelection, its a boost. He did do pretty good job. But also they still have some numbers changing with the comey. Some of these states, that is state where they did see about 3 less white vote going her way after the comey. I dont know if they saw shift back we saw nationally shifted over then a little back in the last few days. And the issue, the change issue, but could be social issues thatr transgender issues, democrats got a little had of where the country is, there was recoil would be very possible. Sreenivasan couple more results. In oregon, Hillary Clinton is projected winner there, no surprise. And in the senate race in hawa hawaii, brian schake and idaho holds on to his seat at projected winner. In oregon, incumbent ron widen is projected winner in washington state, senator patty murray is the projected winner she holds on as well. In california, harris is the projected winner and in wisconsin, ron johnson is the projected winner. Woodruff that is bad news for democrats. At this point, Hillary Clinton would have to sweep all pennsylvania, nevada, newco hampshire and and wisconsin. Remember nevada is that wouldnt be president ial woodruff is Wisconsin Senate going republican does that one piece of nickel knowledge that is, in history of the United States, one senator has been defeated then come back six years later and beaten the senator who beat him. That was peter gary in rhode island in 1928 and in 1934. Nobody woodruff i didnt cover that race. Russ feingold, that is a tough thing to do, Ron Johnson Woodruff he was running ahead for much of the right from the beginning had double digit lead. But they were confident as of today woodruff makes you wonder about the president ial numbers in wisconsin. A little bit . This is not just a comey thing. When johnson is winning this is much deeper thing. Something wrong with the models of the polling or something i dont know what the problems not just one thing this is a big republican surge, so that makes me think its more issue based. Or something. Its probably not only 14 of voters said they decided within the last week. And they did so to but wasnt like they went to trump 6040 it was 59 or 56. I think that you can argue that something here was sitting there all along, so for i have to call myself out here for all those folks who said, well, theres some hidden vote here, voters that arent getting picked up maybe not pollsters the truth didnt pick it up anything. Online polls, phone call polls anything that could pick up any sort of hidden vote, never found it and yet here we are today looking at numbers that just didnt exist in any polling weve seen. Two quick things. Ons i still old hot some sort of mystical surge going on because if you were also to tell me that in the end that seven or eight percent of hispanics would actually protest vote for Third Party Candidate but would not vote to Hillary Clinton i would have probably war youd with you on that. But clearly look at the exit poll date that that they went to the polls they stood in line, they cast their protest vote. Woodruff protest vote. That suggests that clinton untrustworthiness, i dont know what would motivate. That must have had some affect. How many people who answer polls just answer them incorrectly or choose not to participate in the first place are, its ultimately secret process you can pull lever for whatever you feel like. As pollster im going to weve been incredibly accurate, particularly all campaign, will be interesting to see if they were really woodruff well go now down to up to i should say were in washington theyre in new york. Trump headquarters with our Jeffrey Brown, has to be a little bit of celebrating going on there. Well, there is a lot of celebrating. First, just listening to that conversation youve been having i cant help but think abut Republican Voters that ive been talking around the country recently, telling me dont believe the polls. Dont believe the 30s. Now, people always say that. But looks like they were on to something. Here in the hall they have been calling states a little differently than youve been calling them because theyre following fox news. Weve been following things in slightly different order. Ohio was called, that got big rousing ovation from the crowd. But i think there was some expectation that would happen. Next big state to be called was North Carolina. That got a huge ovation here. I think that was a real surprise for people. I dont know that they really thought they had one in the bag. After that, came florida. Of course, that just builds and builds. Now i think theres real sense of usa chant went up. Nest a growing excitement and expectation. You talked earlier to former congressman comping stop. I kept him around here for a little bit. Now, really, are you surprised . He said, pleasantly surprised. The first person to sort of admit im a little surprised. But pleasantly so. Sreenivasan Stuart Stevenson. Considering what the poof is there . Look. Had a theory of this race. And it was that there was this hidden white folk and that they would turn out in these large numbers. I cant but you have to give credit that his theory of the race is proving certainly more true than my theory of the racei and other races would have indicated. I didnt mean to cut you off there. Are there people there now that feel like it is the 270 is inevitable. Victory in the making . I dont know that were hearing that quite yet. Im still hearing caution from people. The expectation, more excitement, the chanting and all, slap on the backs, high fives you see that all over the place. But i dont know anybody quite there yet. Frankly around the country, im not sure that seen that. But i was hearing what you guys have been talking about, about donald trump as being seen by largely white electorate as an agent for change. Get rid of the status quo. Get rid of what were seeings. I will change things help you out. Woodruff that was clearly part of your reporting of the last few days. Well come back to you in a little while. For now lets check in with john yang who is at clinton headquarters. John, what are you seeing and hearing . A lot quieter here, judy, very large crowd. They could be very quiet sometimes. Only time when state is called for clinton, they sort of rotate the networks here, they go to whichever network is making calls. Or if one of those networks on the big screen comes here, comes to their correspondent here. Then theres a big cheer to show that there is life in this par party. But it is jeffrey said theres pleasant surprise that the new york hilton. Id say here at the gentleman its center theres gentleman its center, there was surprise but not pleasant. When North Carolina was called for trump i got to say ive been able to reach anyone with campaign for a little bit now. Florida has to have been a blow to this campaign. They always said that they had many paths to 270. That they could get there without ohio. They could get there without North Carolina. But they were counting on florida kept talking to us about the florida ground game, the early voting with latinos and African Americans saying that that would nail the door shut for donald trump. That there was no way you could get to 270 without florida. Hes got it. Hes got pathway but clinton still has pathway as well. But here at the Javits Center theyre settling in for a long tight. Woodruff john, are they saying anything about pennsylvania . Thats another state i know everybody has been had an eye on and its now been a few hours since polls closed. I think theres still looking at the numbers in Philadelphia City itself. Looking at the black turn out there, looking at the suburbs. White women, suburban women with College Degrees. They were hoping for looking at those areas. I havent been able to reach anyone with the campaign for awhile now. Sreenivasan is there a sense there that the inverse of the question i asked of jeff brown, people there starting to realize that there could be loss in their future in the next hour and half or two . I think they realize, but dont think its inevitable. They still that have a path, they think that they are hoping on nevada. Theyre hoping on michigan, were getting more numbers out of wayne county. There was a jump in the narrowing of the margin of trumps lead in michigan when we got more numbers out of wayne county, also the large arab American Population in i mi mccomb or oakland county. Dearborn. But i think that they realize they have more paths but also realize that door still open for donald trump. Woodruff john yang at Hillary Clintons celebration, quote, unquote. In new york city. Thank you, john. Well be coming back to you. Im hearing we have another state to call, utah. For donald trump. This is very early. Just 19 of the vote coming in where the polls closed at 10 00. Just about i guess have been closed over an hour but this is not state that Hillary Clinton expected to win. We were keeping eye on conservative party candidate, evan mcmullenn maybe he might take it. It appears that they would hold donald trump. Woodruff its interesting, much was made of the fact that utah being center of the Mormon Church in this country, heavily mormon population and we were reading, an draw gillespie that many mother manslaughter were not comfortable with donald trump. Still appears to be the case. Donald trump gets eight Percentage Points among men than women. Hes probably going to get about 20 of the overall vote in the state. Where trump ends up pushing ahead that more men decided that they would put those differences aside vote for him as opposed to Hillary Clinton. Woodruff amy walter the role of men. Talking about the men, real where obama in exit polls and nationally behind African Americans from his performance by five points, asians by eight points. This is going to be the great showdown between emerging electorate and old model white electorate. He is performing as well and better than mitt romney shes underperforming president obama. I would push back that hes performing better than mitt romney. I dont know necessarily see that. I think what is in fact here, issue here that you do have i think is false because you actually have two points less. But you also have again the electorate voting other. If you look, shes got 37 of the white vote hes got 58 of the white vote. Romney got woodruff nationally . 59 of the white vote. Hes not necessarily off of where romney was with the white vote nationally. But she that protest vote right now particularly among younger voteers is killing her. Either way im looking at wisconsin, 67 hes up by 2. 9. He might not even need michigan just one ever those two. Both look good for him. That might be thats where well watch those two that will all hang. Sreenivasan Jeff Greenfield, the rust belt playing Important Role and michigan and wisconsin playing Important Role. I think this goes back to fundamental point. If were going to be honest, everybody thought four or five hours ago that we were going to be covering the victory of Hillary Clinton. One of the premises, all the pollsters told us this notion of a shy vote, of people who tell us what theyre doing or somehow hidden away from us is not right. We consider how many people made up their minds long ago, it isnt jim comey and last four or five days. Two other quick points. One is, what do we think Bernie Sanders and his followers are thinking right now. Because Hillary Clinton was the default choice of the Democratic Party establish the. Bernie sanders demonstrated in the primaries there was very large cohort of democrats that wanted something else. She won fair and square. But she came into this race with an awful lot of liabilities that i think the Clinton Campaign would be overwhelmed by trumps which is why we know how much they were rooting for trump. The question i think now is, if trump actually wins and let me first to offer poker analogy, clinton has to draw inside straight. If she loses, the battle over what happened where it goes next, is going to be intense to put it mildly. Woodruff we know youre a heavy poker player, Jeff Greenfield that was not surprising. But continue on with your thought about Bernie Sanders, what is Bernie Sanders thinking tonight . Well, i dont know how charitable he is, but i think he and his followers are thinking, we nominated the wrong person. Democratic party went with the safe choice, or the consensus choice or the choice of the insiders. Now that we have, if trump wins, is a washington completely under republican control, Supreme Court now goes 54 on conservative side. And i think there would be point to the Democratic Party insiders, to say, you give us a candidate, only candidate we could have put up who trump could have beaten was Hillary Clinton. Thats where the conversation is going to be on their side. Woodruff there was evidence of this almost two years ago, jeff, i remember seeing peter hart focus group, i remember in early 2015 where the overwhelming take away from that discussion was voters saying they didnt like either jeb bush, in particular didnt like jeb bush but didnt like Hillary Clinton those being the two front runners. For their respective parties. They liked elizabeth warren, mark shields is reminding me. I think thats is the quick point to make is that it isnt as though Democratic Party didnt know that Hillary Clinton had problems she was second most disliked candidate in history. Just that they assumed, most of us did i think until maybe couple hours ago, that it was enough to defeat trump. I was talking with North Carolina republican about no ago. Both parties nominated only person the other party cobalt. What we didnt realize ex tonight which trump was able to pull supporters seen edge him as we talked about earlier, guy was going to pick over the table, change things at the root. That his choice of words proved that he he wasnt one of them. The misreading of that from the entire political journal it particular establishment is going to be the big story in the coming days and weeks. Woodruff may be the subject of books that are written about this election. Jeff greenfield in new york, thank you. I think everybody around this table theres consensus now that whether donald trump wins tonight or not he is certainly giving Hillary Clinton a much bigger run for the money than anybody expected. And she may lose. Yes. The last time to jeffs point that Party Democrats got the candidate they wanted is 1980 if you recall. They were terrified jimmy carter was terrified that republicans could nominate howard baker who was appealable or even george h. W. Bush only nominate this guy with prematurely orange hair from hollywood, reagan i think his name was and 44 states later, of course, the democrats paid dearly for it. Theres no question. They wanted to run against trump. Talk about civil war in the Democratic Party. I see one in the Republican Party. Just take trade, just focus on that this issue that supposedly proceed filled donald trump. None of them agree with donald trump on trade that im aware of. Its been sort of a disconnect between where donald trump was and where the senators were. Theyre not for tariffs. Dont want to throw out these trade agreements like trump does. Its going to be really interesting to see what theyre going to do. Some agreement. Key issues like that. He said, he was agreed with Bernie Sanders. Not going to ask Republican Party to agree with Bernie Sanders on trade . You. Know, you make really good point. I remember at the Republican Convention with republican members of congress who when discussion came up about what would President Trump look likeo Infrastructure Spending where is that money going to come from. Not going to get Republican Congress to spend more money. Where are you going to get obamacare. Trade, theres still going to be key issues spending more money especially on Something Like the call thats going to be pushback. Trump ran against entitlement reform. Paul ryan has thats another one. Made his reputation on necessity of entitlement reform, trump is against it. Woodruff long been projecting that donald trump, deficit under Donald Trump Administration way bigger than this event underlines we no longer have traditional race, open and closed race, open globalization. Im reminded whole bunch of polling errors over last couple of years in greece, israel, netanyahu, u. K. Cam ran, brexit, the trump in each case under polled the close equation. So this is a global wave that we are missing trump happened to be leading it. Lets take quick look with Lisa Desjardins. What grouping we have in the physical tall race but right now we can talk about possibility not only of a President Trump but potentially President Trump with republican controlled congress. Much still to be decided that hasnt been decided yet but looking you can look at senate bounds of power, 46 caucusing with democrats. 48 with the republicans. Key that democrats are running out of opportunities. Im going to graphic we thought wed look all night recalled our scorecard how many pick ups democrats have had in the u. S. Senate tonight. They need four or five in order to take over the senate. And so far if you look how many of those they have gotten just one in illinois. How many races are left in the senate, battleground races, democrats have opportunity. Were still looking at four outstanding senate races that are toss ups, New Hampshire, missouri, pennsylvania, nevada. Right now there just isnt path for democrats to get majority. Theres path for control if Hillary Clinton wins the white house. But i think whats remarkable that were talking about this upheaval election. Potential donald trump elected president of the United States when you look at these senate races, house races its looking like very at that time us question. Xd minimal change in the senate. Minimal change in the house. This is more complicated, not just throw the bums out election, might just be stopping difference can go on. We talked about very Important Senate race which is New Hampshire. Senator kelly ayotte. Weve seen the states governor leading that race look what happens now. Kelly is pulling ahead. This goes with the narrative we seen in the last hour and half. They dont want narrative republican that are cheering. Kelly ayotte i think were seeing her head toward maybe keeping her seat thats seat absolutely democrats would need if theyre going to take over the senate. Lets talk also about the house. Predictions, theres one point not long ago maybe two weeks ago perhaps democrats can take over the house. Now were seeing only picked up two. Race that is particular that tells us something. New yorks First District running for reelection, its been a competitive district. But he cozied up to donald trump. He made in the local media even called president obama a racist and democrats were excited. They were ecstatic this is perfect. Started to look at the numbers, wait. Donald trump is actually doing well in this district. It was good early indicator that even though Donald Trumps unpopularity nationwide was high. We havent seen, lot of races in florida, wanted to ping havent done that. Hasnt been that surge. I have to stop myself because going back to judy and hari. Woodruff thank you,ly virginia news is, that donald trump is projected winner in hawkeye state, iowa, this is state that. The democrat Hillary Clinton losing to the republican donald trump. David brooks were watching the the greatest political upset in american history. Why was clinton just saw from the atlantic that she made two visits to wisconsin in the last few months that could turn out to be very bad decision. Just think now just looks like bigger thing. That there is title wave of revolt against global economy. Against wave of immigration weve seen over last 30 years. Results of deindustrialization. When you add in people you can get very high number of families that are disrupted. Family break down, fact that christians in the last four or five years have folks completely under assault in this country. Because some of the Supreme Court decisions, takes lot of factors to make something this big. Lot of factors are in play. Cornell belcher, this is, whata were talking about it was expected that donald trump was going to do well, polls have been indicating that we are seeing early signs in wisconsin which is not called yet, state that everybody assumed, most people ashamed going to Hillary Clinton. Donald trump showing surprising strength. This is why they are Battle Grounds. They are so tight. Again, when i looked at iowa and ohio these are states probably drifting away from democrats. You got to shes got to hold wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan, holds those, shes probably going to be okay. But wisconsin right now is troubling. Woodruff call to make in the state of georgia. The projected winner is donald trump. Weve actually lot of us are surprised its taken this long, polls closed in the peach state at 7 00. Its four hours four and half hours later. It looks like pretty significant margin with 9 of the vote in, Andra Gillespie youve been watching georgia develop you can explain why its so late. We expected donald trump to win there. We expected donald trump not to surprise. Not uncommon sometimes for some of the atlanta areas, counties to be slow in their reporting. May explain part of the reason why its taken this long for it to comeo in. But again it was expected that it was going to tilt red. Woodruff it doesnt change the story that were talking about tonight but one more happy moment for the donald Trump Campaign. Amy walter . Yeah. This was state that he was supposed to win. We had projected that the polls that had come out of there, one state that polls actually got quite right was iowa that you never really fallen behind in that state. But again, it goes to this battleground of the midwest that what watches performing differently than wisconsin or michigan. Folks gave reason for that because, iowa is more rural. Iowa doesnt have a big Population Center like detroit or milwaukee. Iowa doesnt have as many suburban women because you dont have as many big suburbs, all those were going to protect, ins plate Hillary Clinton from what was going to happen to her in iowa. Obviously that doesnt necessarily look like the case right now. Its shout out for ann exceller, the des moines register. She called it seven points. We have it at six. Argument going in as to the way iowa was the exception was that iowa had sixth highest High School Graduation rate in the country. But 35th in college graduation. This was made for trump in sort of his nobody i know said, well, gee, if iowa is going maybe just step overboard tore wisconsin then on to michigan. Obviously, it was i would say, two anxieties. Economic anxiety and cultural anxiety. Cultural anxiety about country i know is changing. They are making fun of the things i compare about, whether its fay patriotism or religion, traditional values, all moving so fast. Thats tied in with immigration and yeah. I do think that is contributed to certainly the environment that were seeing expressed. Woodruff lisa has been talking to some of the trump folks. They say mood over there is fantastic. They are careful not to say fit they think they have this won but source went ever so close to saying that, they said we think were there. Backed off saying, were not going to jinx this, theres more states to come in. Talked about wisconsin and michigan. Also the Trump Campaign at least this one very high ranking source they feel thats correct itco polls tonight have been problem for them that the exit polls are not standing up to the actual results. They are questioning that. Obviously feel like results that theyre seeing. Also donald trump im told has been in the war room himself with his staff. Thats not necessarily common. But its obviously a jubilant mooped among the Trump Campaign staffers at trump tower waiting on wisconsin and michigan. They get wisconsin and perhaps one vote in maine the main ex Second District, they think thats it. Not calling it yet very close in their mind. Woodruff it is certainly been thank you who has been following the Trump Campaign throughout much of the year. The Financial Markets are certainly responding towards Trump Presidency right now. The dow futures are down a thousand points which is about 5. 5 . That can change overnight. They are looking at statistical models from the New York Times that 95 Trump Presidency. C well find out when market opens. Woodruff it would be brexit was very close. Number of polls coming in in that last week. More than half of them showing that brexit that could win more than half that it was overlooked that. It was overlooked. So many underlying indicators, literally zero indicators in any type of modeling, polling, Prediction Markets. Nothing had given us any indication of this. You know, im not 100 sure that i agree completely with. That i would say Prediction Markets that poll aggregators some of them trying to minimize error. If you looked at the individual polls you saw margins of error. We tend to truncate margins of error correctly. These things would accommodate things that were seeing. We just dont like that much uncertainty going into it we tend to carve them closer. By 11 points. Thats more than dasher. But the other point is all these polls, we got do 51 . She was never at majority in any of these polls, and those late floaters tend to break against incumbent for better or worse. Woodruff do want to call one governors race, vermont this is a change of party control. I believe the winner is the republican Lieutenant Governor phil scott. Thats right. Change of party. Defeating democrat, sue minter thats a change of hands. More good news for republicans. This may be High Water Mark for the republican history. Have all. Houses and half governor ships. People and 2018 is very senate side that is a very good looking year for republican so Many Democrats who sit in red states. First mid term President Trump . Very different. Mid term. Donald trumps first term. Stuart stevens, internal conversation of Republican Party right now, this guy delivered results. He got us to place where we couldnt get going the route that we used to go. I think thats true. I dont consider it that encouraging. What is undervalued here, donald trump went out said a lot of things we as society have decided should be unacceptable. He called for religious test in the United States. He called mexicans coming to the United States, this is something i think is not a positive sign. I dont think that everyone supports donald trump agrees with. That but i think that if you wanted to talk about who stuck electric cord in some of these voters, i dont think it was unemployment rate, i dont think it was economic stress. I think it was the ability to say these things and be someone else makes it okay. To feel this. Personally i dont consider that positive. Woodruff were going out to the west coast given fact that the polls closed in california about 43 minutes ago. Reporters Scott Shaffer joins us from our station kqed in San Francisco. Scott, bring us some wisdom from am the way out there. Feels like were living in at universe out here, judy. We expect Hillary Clinton to do very well, latest polls showed her ahead by 23 points over donald trump. Were going to be electing new u. S. Senator tonight, the attorney general who was very quickly rising star. In the Democratic Party is going to win the u. S. Senate seat held by senator barbara box who are is retiring in this system we have out here, if she wins will defeat Loretta Sanchez the Orange County congress woman. On track to also tighten up gun control, legalize pot and Death Penalty still hanging in the balance were not sure. Two questions regarding the Death Penalty are on the ballot. That does sound like at reality compared to what the rest of the country is thinking about going through right now. Is there it is in many ways San Francisco bay area is liberal thought in the country compared to what were talking about waiting for wisconsin hanging in the balance, waiting for the base core, trump voter that has given him incredible performance tonight. Absolutely. We were so confident, labor was so confident in california that clinton was going to win they were flooding nevada with volunteers to make calls, precinct walk those kind of things, i dont think that confidence was misplaced. Well know better as more votes come in. But clearly, this was a state thinking back to june, primary where Bernie Sanders gave Hillary Clinton a run. He got about 45 of the vote. She obviously won. But you saw that discontent that people felt with Hillary Clinton expressed among democratic voters also nonpartisan voters who are allowed to vote in the physical shat primary. You know, some ways we saw. That back in june, Hillary Clintons support was broad but maybe not so deep. Woodruff scott, that raises a very good point what weve been talking about around this table tonight that is, just where is Hillary Clintons support coming from and how enthusiastic is it. Clearly, in some places where her campaign was counting on where the party was counting on is not there . Its not there. You know, there was very confident of their granted game, judy, the get out to vote effort was mase basically inherit fred the 2012 Obama Campaign, many of the same people worked on the precinct operations, very sophisticated use of data to target voters, they knew exactly who they needed to get to the polls. There was some concerns about level of enthusiasm especiallyni among African American voters, thought was that she could make up for that with more votes from latinos, but i think perhaps as youve been discussing what was missed, is the elevated support and enthusiasm for donald trump among working class white folks and caucasians without College Education. Woodruff scott shafer with kqed. Get that right. Public television in San Francisco. Scott, thank you very. Thank you. Woodruff so, we are left with less Hillary Clinton won california. Mark shields, but the final results we dont know yet. We dont know. Certainly is more suspenseful than many of us expected. But we are in the heart of post industrial america. If you think about wisconsin and michigan. Where as america as changed more dramatically economically. The irony, of course, is that barack obama in 2012 did so well in both michigan and ohio because of the auto bail out. Able to portray romney s somebody who in the New York Times saying going to be managed bankruptcy of the auto industry. But that is the reality. Its a changed reality. And the one point that stuart made that i want to underline is that politics is the most imitative of the u. S besides journalism, has legitimized speech that was totally unacceptable. Considered unhelpful and counter productive and hurtful. It wasnt that people were necessarily more noble, but that was considered speech that would be damaging to you politically, will be a thousand Donald Trumps running for everything from county recorder to Library Board starting monday morning. One of the thing thats interesting about this is that if you look at the agerace break down. That is not terribly unusual to see white millennials. I dont think people would assume that happens, trump gets plurality of that, going to be off on Third Party Candidates but assume that the Younger Generation going to be more socially liberal on all matters that may not be true. Very last Clinton Campaign call were outpurchasing with white millennials. Obama lost them were winning them. Were outpurchasing with latinos, outpurchasing a with asians, outpurchasing white what were they basing that on . On what they were seeing but theyre not. Theyre not. The story line is if you look at his percentages, theyre not that far off of mitt romneys they came back. She has not held Obama Coalition the kay that sreenivasan there was commentator in one of jeff browns pieces, it was pollster in iowa that said last 12 years ive been hearing people want a candidate, sometimes by name, like this. Woodruff this is anne seltzer in washington. Have to go back see what happened. The pollster story which is fascinating story. Just history story where the mention of brexit. It was like spanish american war compared to world war i. That is a global story. The americas role in the world is going to change if trump wins. Estimate not certain i can see lot of one path for clinton to pull this out. But obamacare, gone. Lot of the immigration policy, utterly transformed. Lot of big things are about to happen if trump wins. And why people elected him to me something were going to argue about just projecting forward, we have no now widen our horizon ons of what America Future will look like. Its going to be lot of things. Democratic party believe me has not thought about this. I dont think anybody has scenario for a Trump Presidency. Woodruff theres that argument. Ive interviewed number of authors looked at the White Working Class swath of america and come at it in many different directions. J. D. Vance and others and the thrust is that Democratic Party was not paying attention to the White Working Class people of america, thats a great overstatement. I dont want to over state it. But theres something going on out there this year. We could give us all minutes to think about future of america as we head up to the newsroom. William brangham, daniel bush youve been following a lot of things throughout the night. Understood. Good evening. Ill william with daniel, weve been following the story as this is unfolding as it seems that donald trump is edging closer and closer to the nomination. Weve from been trying to see how . Being followed. Youve been looking at what liberals with democrats have been saying, what have you been seeing . This is not the night they have been expecting. Hillary clinton came in with advantage in national. The producer of scandal who campaigned with Hillary Clinton. Shes sent out tweet saying, really, people . Anyone can anyone can be president . Anyone . Katrina, editor of the nation magazine saying, tomorrow more than soul searching demanded among pollsters, clearly Hillary Clinton supporters are very surprised right in and out. This is of the trump family watching results. Perhaps their faces depict what a lot of the people, a sense of awe and shock at the story how its unfolding. We heard some some other prominent conservatives that weve seen. Bill kristol conservative writer and it for of the Weekly Standard tweeted this out just recently. Here is my deep analysis of the race based on careful study of county and precinct level results. Omg. Oh, my, god. Eric ericson from red state, another conservative writer wrote, republicans cant win by relying on just white people will be uttered again in four years. Again, we havent seen as much jubilation as we might ex sect from republicans growing sense ever confidence. Thats right. Race is not over yet. But theyre showing some confidence now beginning to say, this race is going in Donald Trumps direction. Silent majority are coming through. One other tweet that we just saw recently, this was put out by jodi cantor reporter for the new york sometimes, wrote biography of the obamas she wrote what im hearing from Democratic Women again and again, what. going to tell my daughters in the morning. Certainly this was something that Hillary Clinton had hoped would be big rallying cry for her voters that the idea of possibly seeing a woman in the white house clearly this one reporter hearing from lot of them that they are feeling deeply despondent to say the least. Thats right. Its going to be lot of despair if Hillary Clinton does indeed lose. Starting to see that on social media, following this all these reactions coming in. Very different night for Hillary Clinton than they expected. One other thing that weve been picking up on, few environmentalists who are looking at the possibility of Trump Presidency, again, this is still still waiting on final results on this. But bill mckibbon one of the leading environmental activists pushing for stricter and tougher rules on Climate Change tweeted out just recently if trump wins, savages the planets chance ever dealing with Climate Change. Biggest results of hideous night. Well keep watching, keep watching on social medium well be back later on, thanks very much. Back to you. Woodruff thank you. All that very really fascinating, social media reaction. Were here watching the wires, other sources of information. Were talking about it around the table. Canadas immigration website has apparently crashed. Suggesting that number of americans are looking at moving to canada we dont know much beyond that at this point. We reported earlier the Financial Markets have reacted, futures market by plunging at least at this point. Again we dont know what is going to happy lex has not been called yet. Its 244 electoral votes for donald trump and 209 for Hillary Clinton. You need 270 to become president. Amy walter as i u minutes ago the path for Hillary Clinton has narrowed considerably. Were getting also to place where Hillary Clinton could end up winning pot poop pew lar vote losing electoral vote which winner of the electoral vote isi winner of the presidency. But it would be sort of cold comfort to democrats they would have won popular vote in more trait elections than any party has, you have to go back to the 1820s to see that yet come up short of the presidency in two of the those elections. Sreenivasan william was mentioning Climate Change consequence very long term, Supreme Court also trending online, thats next 30 years of impact that the next president will have. Woodruff environmental, certainly Supreme Court touches every aspect of our lives. Absolutely. Given gridlock of congress, nonproductivity of the congress. Court assumed even larger role in National Decision making, national posey. I dont think any questions that this is the battleground. Its significance cannot be overstated. Woodruff remind us what are the states that were waiting to see at this point right now. What are we waiting to see come in . We are waiting to see wisconsin. Woodruff wisconsin. Michigan. Woodruff and electoral votes. And michigan. New hampshire. And New Hampshire, small states nevada, small states are awfully important. Maine the house seat in mainz its maybe combination states smaller. We still dont know pennsylvania am i right . Right. And that hasnt been called. Thats one that Hillary Clinton she was she loses pennsylvania its over without question. But even wisconsin the path so much no margin for error for either. Even if clinton for trump gets the popular vote they are still looking like they might winnie electoral vote by very narrow. Woodruff possibility of donald trump is broiling. The world financial march debts, asian stocks, down sharply. The japans average off 4 . Overnight stock futures are down more than 4. 5 . The dollar has dropped sharply against japanese yen and against euro and price of gold is up sharply which is Stewart Stevens when people get worried about economic stability, right . Im always amused for this. Im not sure what that means. Woodruff back to its a good example that have. I think that its troubling to the economic markets because i think its going to be bad for american jobs and business. And others dont disagree. n ver to attribute trumps economic success to the environment personally i feel its not the best side of america. Its certainly not a uniformity of opinion were closing in right this second its 12 00 on the east coast, 9 00 p. M. On the west coast and theres no other polls to close but alaska. Weve been on the air six hours and still dont know who the next president of the United States is. It was thought that we might have an idea by now if Hillary Clinton were doing well but we also knew all along this could be a long night. Now as it stands in the electoral vote Hillary Clinton with 209 and donald trump with 244, 270 is what they need. To Jeffery Brown at Trump Campaign headquarters. Its sort of susp