Major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by moving our economy for 160 years. Bnsf, the engine that connects us. Lincoln financial helps provide Financial Security for those who are always there for you, because this is what you do for people you love. Lincoln financial youre in charge. And the william and flora hewlett foundation, helping people build immeasurably better lives. And with the ongoing support of these institutions this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. And by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. Thank you. Ifill its finally here. Caucus night in iowa. People will gather all over the state to record the first actual votes of the 2016 president ial election year. It comes after endless months of campaigning and more than 200 million spent on ads. The potential payoff . 44 delegates for democrats, 30 for republicans, and bragging rights. Judy and the Newshour Team are on the ground in the hawkeye state. Judy . Woodruff so gwen, the caucus are now well into the business of the evening. And the decisions they make will determine who leaves iowa with momentum. We know that the outcome tonight is going to determine who has num comes ot of the state were watching if des moines but democrats have convened at some 1,100 locations all across the state to choose among three candidates. Republicans are caucusing. And about 900 sites with a far larger field to consider, about a dozen candidates are vying for their votes. And we know there are some sur preeses showing up at those drp surprises showing up at t people are talking about all of us. Were going to take our country back. Were going to run it the way its supposed to be run as a great, great country. Were not going to make the mistakes. Were not going to remember this i am not giving anything from all the special interests. Im funding my own campaign its called self funding. Im doing my own. So im not going to be told by ford or by anybody else what to do. Im doing the right thing for you. We know Martin Omalley surprised democrats at one of the caucus sites here in des moines just now. All of this follows the final push the candidates have been making for months leading right up through today. They didnt stop until the last few hours of this campaign. I appreciate it. Thank you so much 6 woodruff most candidates were on the ground here in iowa one last time today, making one last pitch to voters who may not have made up their minds. And urging those already on their side to turn out tonight. On the democratic side, Bernie Sanders is facing the question will his supporters, many of them firsttimers to the caucuses, show up . He revved up volunteers in des moines today. So what is our job today . Its to make sure we have the highest voter turnout possible. That happens, we win. Lets go get em. cheers and applause woodruff Hillary Clinton was also in des moines. With pastries in hand, she cheered her volunteers through their lastminute push. Thank you. Well do it together. Woodruff in late polls, clinton has a small advantage. But with sanders well ahead in next weeks New Hampshire primary, clintons feeling the pressure here. Come caucus for me tonight. Woodruff on the republican side, donald trump is also relying on firsttime caucus goers for support. He made his plea today in waterloo in northeastern iowa. We are leading all the polls and were leading in iowa, but it doesnt mean anything. You have to go out and caucus. Hopefully tonight we will have the beginning of what will be in a certain way a very positive revolution. Woodruff trump has opened up a lead in recent polls on his closest rival, ted cruz. But the texas senator is hoping his campaigns organization and outreach to evangelicals will work in his favor. We have now been to all 99 counties in the great state of iowa. This is our final stop, on caucus day. Woodruff marco rubio, whos polling third here, has been tamping down expectations, even as he works overtime. We recognize were not the frontrunner, we are an underdog, but we feel good about it. Woodruff the candidates whove struggled in iowa arent even sticking around for the caucuses. If i do well in New Hampshire, everybodys gonna know who i am. Woodruff john kasich, staking his campaign on the New Hampshire primary, was there through the weekend. Woodruff and while jeb bush and Chris Christie were here earlier today, both will be following caucus results from the granite state. There is one more wild card the weather. Much of iowa is in for a winter storm in the hours just ahead. Whatever tonights results, the president ial race is heading into new turbulence all its own. Exciting tonight, we hear there are lots of people showing up at some of these caucus sites. You visited one or two . We did as i mentioned we happened to be at draing university here in des moines, the capitol city, there are several caucuses taking place on the campus for people, not just students but people who live in this neighborhood. I stopped by both the Democratic Caucus and a Republican Caucus. The democrats i have to say were flowing out, overflowing from a large room, and thats place where Martin Omalley showed up am i talked to a couple of people standing in line am big Bernie Sanders supporters. Two young people who said they both had had to drop out of school because they couldnt afford to pay for college. Big bern ye sanders supporters. Just down the hall, maybe a hundred yards is another caucus room for republicans. One woman i talked to said she wouldnt ever vote for Bernie Sanders. So that is democracy. Thats democracy indeed. Were going to not read too much into what we heard earlier but it does tell you that there is a lot of engagement tonight. Judy, well check back in with you. Thank you. Judy will be back with a closer look at the key voters who could determine tonights outcome after the news summery. The World Health Organization today declared the zika virus an International Public health emergency. The mosquitoborn disease has been linked to birth defects in the americas, involving babies born with abnormally small heads or microcephaly. In geneva today, margaret chan, directorgeneral of the w. H. O. , issued a call for action. The committee advised that the causes of microcephaly and other neurological complications constitute an extraordinary event and a Public Health threat to other parts of the world. In their view, a coordinated International Response is needed. Ifill the w. H. O. Says restrictions on foreign travel and trade are not needed yet, but its advising pregnant women in affected countries to take steps to prevent mosquito bites. In afghanistan, new violence underscored the governments struggle to safeguard its own capital. A suicide bomber blew himself up at a Police Headquarters in kabul, killing at least 20 people and wounded nearly 30 more. The interior Ministry Said the taliban attacker detonated the bomb as he waited in line to enter the facility. Most of those killed and injured were civilians. The u. N. s special envoy for syria announced today the official start of talks aimed at ending the countrys civil war. That came after a meeting with the main Opposition Group the high negotiations committee, or h. N. C. In geneva. It wants an end to the sieges and starvation of syrian towns. We are actually listening with attention to the concerns of h. N. C. And we are going tomorrow to discuss and listen to the concerns of the government, the discussions are starting but meanwhile the challenge is now, lets also have those who have the capacity of discussing this at a different level, time to discuss about ceasefire. Ifill meanwhile, the u. S. Envoy charged with fighting the Islamic State was in Northern Syria over the weekend. Brett mcgurk is the first senior u. S. Official to set foot in syria since august of 2014. He met with a variety of groups battling the militants, and said isis forces do not stand a chance. Back in this country, newly released documents shed a bit more light on last mays amtrak crash in philadelphia. Interview transcripts show the engineer, brandon bostian, saying he remembers trying to pick up speed, then hitting the brakes when the train hit a sharp curve, going too fast. But lawyers for the victims said they dont believe him. There was no problem with the signals, no problem with the tracks, no problem with the locomotive, no problem with the brakes, and what weve learned is that the problem was brandon bostian. We believe that his inconsistent story speaks volumes about him and his credibility and believability at trial. Ifill the National Transportation safety board says it has not yet reached any conclusions about the cause of the crash. And on wall street, stocks struggled to hold their own after a new plunge in oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial average lost 17 points to close below 16,450. The nasdaq rose six points, and the s p 500 dropped a fraction of a point. Still to come on the newshour how the evangelical vote can make or break g. O. P. Candidates, and why republicans are revolting against the establishment. Plus, full analysis of the Iowa Caucuses from our david brooks, Michelle Cottle and our politics monday duo. Woodruff almost every president ial election produces a block of voters who become a barometer for the outcome. On friday, we looked at the role women voters of different ages are playing in the democratic woodruff in some ways, yesterday was just like any other sunday at the kathedral an Evangelical Christian Church in iowas capital, des moines. Worshipers came together for a morning of prayer and enthusiastic song. But when it came time for the sermon, pastor Kenney Linhart, left no doubt what he expects his congregates to do come monday night. You want to see things change in iowa . Do you want to see the glory of god come down to iowa . Then you need to be involved in the political process. Woodruff only a fraction of iowa voters typically go to caucus. But of those who attend on the republican side, half are expected to be evangelical, or bornagain christians. Iowa pollster ann selzer says even as her latest survey shows donald trump leading among republicans overall, ted cruz is ahead among evangelicals. We see surprises all the time coming from the evangelical vote and thats why you have to look at ted cruz and his ability to organize that group as a potential surprise on caucus night. Woodruff it was evangelicals who helped propel Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum four years ago to victory here. This year, not only are huckabee and santorum running again, so is a cluster of other republicans. Radio iowas o. Kay henderson nine months ago, rand paul was trying to lock in evangelical supporters. You have ben carson, who has really kept a core of support, and that comes from the states evangelical churches. You have donald trump, who has lined up an important endorsement from the president of liberty university. And you have ted cruz, who has an effort to try to get a pastor in each precinct in iowa. Woodruff but the former chairman of the Iowa Republican party, matt strawn, says the evangelical voters these candidates are after dont all have the same priorities. Take a look at ted cruz. Part of his coalition with people like Bob Vander Plaats, radio personality steve deace, very antiestablishment evangelical christians, the type that want to blow up the system and start over. As opposed to maybe a larger group of iowa Christian Conservatives, more pragmatic Christian Conservatives who want to work within the system to shape it towards their beliefs and theyre the folks that are your traditional caucus goers that are still largely up for grabs. Woodruff this latter group, strawn says, have elected mainstream republicans to office here for years. But thats exactly what Christian Conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats says he does not want to see this time. Hes backing cruz. We trust conversions on the road to damascus. We question conversions on the road to des moines, and so we take a look at what were they doing before they ran for president. And so, at age 13, you know, he was memorizing the constitution. Hes deeply threaded with the judeochristian worldview. I want to ask of each of you is you to pray, just a minute a day. That you say father god, continue this awakening, awaken the body of christ, that we might pull back from the abyss. Woodruff the divide has grown into a kind of internal war. Another prominent voice inside iowas Christian Conservative community, pastor Jamie Johnson, says cruz has hit a ceiling within the group. It could be his personality, that he seems to naturally seems to rub people the wrong way. People have told me many times woodruff johnson, who pastored churches for 25 years, believes trump could surprise everyone tonight. I would say that iowas evangelicals are cautious, but excited about the possibility of a president trump. And they feel he may have the iron will to do a lot of the things that have frustrated iowa evangelicals and probably evangelicals across the nation for many years now. Woodruff Bob Vander Plaats couldnt disagree more. Hes a guy that says he does not have to ask god for forgiveness. Hes a guy that disparages prisoners of war, by saying i like veterans who arent captured. Hes a guy who mocks people with disabilities. My mother gave me this bible; this very bible many years ago. Woodruff kathedrals Kenney Linhart questions trumps sincerity. How tattered are the pages of that bible . And how much of that bible does he know . Woodruff but pastor Jamie Johnson argues many iowa evangelicals are even more focused on finding a strong leader for the country and someone who can win in november. I think theres a willingness on the part of many self described bornagain christians that are willing to take a chance on trump, and pray that god will guide him in a moral and ethical direction. Woodruff johnson defends trumps expressions of faith, as do voters like kathy simpson, who showed up yesterday to hear trump speak in council bluffs. There are people who dont think trump is a religious person. I know that he is a religious person. Woodruff some who belong to pastor linharts church have a different take. Several brought up trump calling a new testament book, two corinthians. If he cant pronounce the bible verse the correct way then it doesnt give me a lot of faith. I mean, my twoyear old knows how to say a scripture. Woodruff Brenda Mcginnis is enthusiastically for marco rubio. I have heard him talk about his salvation, ive heard him use the name of jesus christ, which is important to me. Woodruff rubio spoke about his faith to a crowd outside of des moines this weekend. You better hope that my faith influences me because im a follower of jesus christ. And jesus christ taught us that in order to follow him we have to care and love for one another. Woodruff pastor linhart likes what he hears. Marco rubio has come out so well with his faith and pushed strong and not just said he is a christian, but that he believes the word of god should direct his life. Woodruff whether its the deciding factor or not in the republican contest, pastor linhart believes it is critical for the Christian Community to make its voice heard. As you go about this election cycle tomorrow night, you pray and ask that god shows you the men and women who are subjected to his spirit. Because if god is going to change the nation, he is going to do it through human vessels. Ifill now to politics monday, and what a big monday it is. Back to judy in iowa. Woodruff earlier today, i spoke with someone who knows iowa politics as well as anybody. Hes republican chuck grassley, whos served 35 years as the states u. S. Senator, and i asked how he explains Donald Trumps appeal in his home state. This wakeup call to everybody in the republican, who could be our nominee, and youve kind of got to no worry so much about his political philosophy, right or left. Youve got to see him as a messenger, and the frustration that the American People have. And whoever is our candidate has to respond to that frustration. Youre completely comfortable with ted cruz, were to pull off a win here . I think the best way to answer your question is that i dont want a third time of an obama presidency. And with that leadin im joined here in iowa by amy walter of the cook political report. So amy, theres so much to talk about. We are starting to see results. Lets start though with what we were just talking about before we heard from senator grassley. And that is the evangelical vote. You are already seeing some definition in how people think about these candidates if voters happen to be evangelical. Thats right. A lot of what we heard in your setup piece here is playing out tonight. Were looking at entrance polls, early polls, basically what the poll steres do is talk to people before they go in and caucus. And what they found is about 60 of the voters who are going in, in the Republican Caucus say they are evangelical. Thats pretty normal. But where they are splitting is evenly. About 25 for trump, 25 for krudz, 25 for rubio, thats unusual. And certainly for ted cruz, what he was hoping was he was seen as the evangelical candidate. So its clear at least at this point, that the he voon el evangelical vote was very diffused. And it is ultimately, i think, if trump win, that will be one reason why. Woodruff and as we scusd, the evangelical vote traditionally, or at least in recent elections has been a huge determine antiin the outcome when you look at Rick Santorum winning the last time, Mike Huckabee. It would win that by double digits, the evangelical vote. Woodruff what else are we seeing in terms yf people are voaght. Were you looking at interviews that have been done with people as they went into their caucus fight. So were seeing that you know, about 40 or so of people that say theyre new to the process, thats a little bit higher than normal. But not out of the ordinary. I think whats happening is that as it looks right now, that donald trump is having a pretty broad coalition. He is winning among all types of groups. Where he is doing strongest is among people who if you look at, for example, education. The folks who did not go to college, overwhelmingly supporting donald trump. Those who did, leaning more towards actually marco rubio and also ted cruz. What i think were going to end up with at this point is a very tight threeway race between cruz, rubio and trump. And trump does look at this point like he got the kind of voters out and they stuck with him. Woodruff why do we think there is that deficit that he has had . Or let me turn it around. Why has he been so strong with voters who have not had a College Education . Those voters who may be, you know, some what lower income level, who maybe only graduated. I think his voice resonates with people who feel like theyve been taken for granted. And i think this is a group of voaks folks who feel like theyve been left behind. Nobody has been speaking to them. I hear it a lot when i talk to voters or sit in focus groups, you know what, people at the top are getting tax breaksk people at the very bottom seem to be getting a lot of free handouts from government. Nobody is doing anything for me. What you have been doing for me. And they like what they hear from donald trump on that front. I was truck by, we just heard from senator grassley today. Heres somebody who represents the body of the conservative republican establishment, as we said he served in the United States senate for 35 years, since 1980. Served this state. And hes watching this real spek teablg unfold inside his own party and hes not sure where its going. Thats right. That is why he is doing the politically smart thing which is to say im not going be on the wrong side of this. It may not amount to a Trump Victory but theres something clearly out there. Hes up for reelection this year. Hes also, im sure, eyeing the fact that if he gets on the wrong side of it, he may get his own primary challenge from somebody whos been amped up and motivated by what theyve seen from donald trump. And a lot of this energy out there. Plus harnessing it, keeping it in place for the general election, thats when you hear a lot of republican senators, even if they dont necessarily like donald trump, they want to keep those supporters, those new people who he has brought into the system, who have been disaffected, never part of the electorate before. They dont want to turn them off. Woodruff speaking of endorsements for just a minute, amy. We talked about how reluctant many elected officials have been to jump on anybodys bandwagon because its been such an unpredictable year. We have learned tonight that marco rubio is going to pick up a significant endorsement in the next couple of days. A very big endorsement from senator tim scott, republican from south carolina. One of the newer members of the delegation. Young, tea party, very well respected in that state. I think what he does is he sends a signal to other republicans who are not in the trump lane, that marco rubio is the so called establishment, whatever we want to call that now. Tea party establishment, conservative candidate that you should line up with. And if he does very well tonight, and its lining up pretty well at this point for him, he becomes the defacto antitrump. Woodruff amy, youve been looking at this election so closely. What are you looking, what questions are you looking to see answered . Obviously we want to know the outcome, for a second, first and so for forth. What are you looking for. I really do want to see just who these people were that turned out for donald trump and are these folks going to continue to turn out for him as we move forward. This was going to be the toughest state for donald trump because as you said before, evangelical, not traditionally something that we would think, not a group of voters that we would have thought donald trump would do well with, and it, requires organizing. He has not been well organized in the state. The person who was the best organized was ted cruz. So it would show that the power of his voice and the sort of organic nature of his campaign is overpowering our traditional met risk for how we judge the success of a campaign. Woodruff thats if he is able to pull it off. And i heard, i mean his campaign has been sounding confident. I heard boft his sons saying they believe hes going to win. So we will see a little bit longer. I think its going to be very close. Amy walter, well be talking to you later on tonight during the special. Thank you. Much ifill we want to dig into the numbers a bit now. Not just the results, but key facts about iowa and iowans. Hari sreenivasan breaks it down. Hari . Sreenivasan thanks, gwen. Our data team looked to see iowas track record in picking winners and how similar iowans are to the rest of the country. The caucuses are far from a perfect predictor of who goes on to become the partys nominee or eventually to the white house. In fact for democrats, it is slightly better than flipping a coin, the caucuses have picked the candidate correctly 55 of the time, for republicans, the process has only been right 43 of the time. For example in 1992, three quarters of Iowa Democrats stood behind longtime iowa senator tom harkin. That year, bill clinton only received 3 of the vote, but later went on to serve two terms as president. We do have better indicators today to which candidate has been on the minds of iowans in the week leading up to tonight. Over the last week, facebook users in iowa had more to say about donald trump than any other president ial candidate, republican or democrat. You saw that same trend nationwide. Behind trump on the republican side were ted cruz, marco rubio, and ben carson. And among democrats, iowans had the most to say about Hillary Clinton, followed by Bernie Sanders and then Martin Omalley. Of the issues that most concerned iowans on facebook crime and criminal justice, abortion, taxes and the Affordable Care act, there was only one topic the rest of the country was talking about wall street and financial regulation. According to facebook, the rest of the nation is also talking about topics including religion, racism and discrimination, jobs and benghazi. But who are todays iowans, and how do they compare to the rest of the country . They register to vote slightly more than the rest of the nation. In 2012, three out of four iowans were registered versus two out of three americans. Among iowans eighteen or older, the states Median Household Income is 53,712, almost exactly the national average. And the poverty rate, 11 , is also similar the rest of the United States. But there is a significant difference and thats race. According to the census, about nine out of ten iowans are white. Nationwide, that number is far lower about 2 3rds. Fewer latino and African American voters call iowa home, compared to the rest of the nation. Ifill and now to the anaysis of brooks and cottle. Thats Michelle Cottle of the atlantic and david brooks, columnist with the new york times. Mark shields has been under the weather, but we look forward to his full recovery and his return to our Campaign Coverage very soon. Welcome to both of you, david brooks, give me a sense about charlie cook, the great prog nos ate prog nos cater runs the cook political report, he wrote a story today about the difference between emotions and organization. In this election, in this caucus, what are we seeing . Well, were seeing emotion both on the sanders side and the trump side. I think trump revolutionized american politics. With that first debate performance way back when, we started insulting the looks of other candidates, insulgtd the moderators, live tweeting throughout the campaign, calling people morons and idiots. He introduced an new vocabulary into american politics, a different style of doing politics. You know, he was inducted into the professional wrestling hall of fame in 2013. He basically took the professionalling wrestling rhetoric and brought it into american politics and that revved up a lot of people, a a t of people who feel left out, resentdful or feel they are not being heard, suddenly the style and grammar they felt that was against Political Correctness and they felt revved up. The question is will they turn out tonight. If they do, it will be some sort of historic night not only for trump but a change in the way we think about political rhetoric and the way campaigns are run. Assuming that all these rules have gone out the window as david suggests, is that a good thing . Well, i think maryngs think its time to shake up the plilt kal process. So i think whatever happens, you know, in the long run with trump, i think hes had an impact and kind of woken up both parties to the dissatisfaction with how the entire process was being run. So i think it will go beyond this election and even the people who roll their eyes at him starting out have had to kind of go hmmmm, well, hes resonating on some level. Well, let me ask you, starting with you and i will turn to david on this. Whying a we watch the caucussers head out tonight, why is the democratic race so close . Well, you know, the clintons have their charms. But Hillary Clinton has had a particular problem with inspiration. She is not an inspirational candidate. And thats kind of what sanders is pitching these days. I mean we were talking earlier about its not the issues, its kind of more a tone that is dominating this race. And Hillary Clinton has the experience and the practicing nationalism practicing mattism thing down but she is not the Hopey Changey candidate this time around. So despite having, you know, really Good Organization and a lot of turnout, you know, bernie is the guy who is making peoples hearts go pitter pat out there. So david, whatever happened to the Obama Coalition that surprised everybody in iowa in 2008 . Well, the financial crisis happened. A lot of things happened. I think whats happened is there has been a tech torchic shift caused by the financial krieses, by wage stagnation, caused by just the economic strain a lot of people are under. And on the democratic side, that led to Bernie Sanders. Somebody who said we will get government a lot more radical in helping the little guy. On the republican side it sort of had the same deal. Donald trump is idea logically completely inconsistent but is he on the side of the little guy. And so a lot of us read sociology books coming part by charles murray, our kids by Robert Putnam of harvard and seeing an american bifurcating. And i think i sort of missed how that would affect this campaign. But it is affecting the campaign. David, let mee ask you this. Is ideology, as you point out, if trump has exploded our idea of ideology, does that me ideology is dead . On the other hand, bernie trump Bernie Sanders used to be all about ideology, does that mean its stronger . Well, it means the parties are polarized because on one side you have Bernie Sanders calling for a massive increase of in government and ted cruz calling for a massive decrease. So we are splitting a pashed ideology as well. I dont think ideology is dead but it is being reacted too differently in the parties. In disem krattic, people want economic change. In the republican side people want, they fear immigrants are driving down their wages. They want culture change. A change in authority structures. So weve got the fundamental problem which is being retracted in two different ways. Ifill michelle, what is this left for the establishment bracket as we come to call them, jeb bush, marco rubio, Chris Christie, john kasich . Well, coming out of tonight, people are going to be looking very closely at how well rubio does. Rubio is seen right now, hes trending a bit in the daying running up to the caucuses. Hes seen as the establishments last best hope at this point. So if he outperforms expectations or at least hitting expectations, then i think you will see people move to coa less around it. Ifill i promise i wont hold you to this, except that i do. What does someone like marco rubio or Bernie Sanders, what margin is a viblg ree for them tonight . Well, i think if you are looking at a third place victory for rubio, he needs to do, you know, better than middle teens. Middle teens and up. Anything below that will be seen as a big disappointment. Above that, you know, he doesnt have to win. He doesnt even have to come in second. If he manages to come in second, there is going to be a complete uproar. But going forward, if he becomes the guy who outperformed or at least hit expectations in his trending in iowa, then you will see the establishment kind of coa less and get excited about that possibility. Ifill it is only fair i hold your feet to the fire on the same point, david. What margins are you watching for tonight . First of all, i think there will be a Long Campaign so this will be a chapter not a death knell for anybody. I agree, if rubio is north of 16, he looks pretty good. If cruz is north of 224, o or 25, he looks pretty good. If trump is up at 30, if all the people show up, then he looks amazing. And so but i could possibly see cruz winning this. We know they will turn out. The trump voters are a bit of a history. On the sanders side, hes got to get north of 43 or so. And he will look pretty good. Ifill you mentioned in passion and i will ask michelle about this, the difference between iowa an every place else. Going forward, this say chapter its true and tonight were obsessed with it but tomorrow we will be obsessed with New Hampshire and down the road. How different is eye where thanked rest of the country as we go forward . This process . Well, iowa is as we have noted very white, its rural. Its older voters. Its also democratic electorrality is very liberal. Those this this they crunched the numbers and found the three best states in the country for Bernie Sanders, are vermont, iowa and New Hampshire. An and after that you cant really win the democratic primary if you cant talk to nonwhite voters. And so it will shift dramically once we are passed that. But Hillary Clinton has been to iowa on her and her husbands behalf for a long time. Why is this, why is he such a real challenge to her . Is it because she is tied herself to the president or Something Else . It is a couple of things. One, the numbers have been thrown around. There say big chunk of iowa Democratic Caucus goers that consider themselves socialists. They are more liberal. The clintons are not the left wing of the party. They also dont talk in terms of revolution. So tempermentally, you know, the gliet guise just isnt there. In 2008 there was much talk about how the organization wasnt there. And hillary didnt spend enough time in the state. This time shetions tried to remedy that. But there is also still this sense that shes not as down and removed. There is too much security. Theres too much structure. I have talked to iowa voters who complain that when they go to her events they cant really get close to her. Its a combination of things that make it tough for her. But you know, its one state and its a state thats tiny and well move on. It has almost become, were exploiting conventional wisdom left and right but one of the pieces of conventional wisdom involving Hillary Clinton is her moment is just not quite there. That she hasnt connected. That things like these emails have raised such a dust that it makes people think i dont know if i trust her. Is that something that is just unique to early voting states . Its a drag on her. But i would point out that eight years ago she got a lot better after a defeat, got a lot better as a candidate. I would also point out when her husband ran in 12992, i forgot the exact numbers, he lost a ton of the first ten contests. So this thing can go on and shell get better. She hasnt found a focus the way sanders has a focus. He was born with a focus. She has not found it. But i wouldnt be surprised if in a month or two shes honed on something, just caused by the pressure of defeat of the near death experience. Ifill and i want to circle back to the establishment question with you, david. Because as we speak tonight, i think jeb burk and Chris Christie and john kasich are all already in New Hampshire. Theyve already, john kasich said im moving on. Is that drk dsh weve seen people survive after losing in iowa, is that possible for republicans as well in this environment. Totally. Rick santorum won here, Mike Huckabee won here. This can this can sometimes give victory to people without dont move on. And so for Chris Christie this was never going to be a good kind of place. Well be sitting here in april i think still talking about this race especially on the republican side. So they still have a decent shot. Ifill well be sitting here in april, mish snel. Well be sitting here in april, talking about. This well just know a lot more then. Its going to be fascinating to see what the trump story coming out of iowa is. Because its going to be about trump no matter whether win, lose or draw. But come april, well have a lot more votes having gone past it. And the story will be completely different. Ifill Michelle Cottle from the atlanta and david brooks, well talk to you all night long. Were starting to get the first results in tonight as voarts finally have their say. Political director Lisa Desjardins joins us to see what she is watching. Here are some of the early results. 29 for ted cruz coming in, only 18,000 votes, 41 of precincts reported but is he edging out donald trump. And the very close second actually marco rubio. We expected to see them to be bunched up at the top. On the democratic side of this, were looking at Hillary Clinton who is narrowly leading Bernie Sanders with also about 41 , 61 pergs of precincts reporting. So were curious, im curious. These are early going yet, lisa. What you have seen. About who is voting and what disirchtion that makes about what the trends are tonight. Lets start with the republicans. Those numbers that you saw, its a close race. Cruz out front early, not by much. Maybe that is a disappointment for Trump Supporters but if you look at the map we made for tonight, gwen, look at the upper northwest koarn, were seeing something really interesting. There ted cruz is winning in that conservative slot, but number two, marco rubio. Hes doing very well in one of those counties ben carson is also number two. But i think one of the stories tonight is we see marco rubio ahead of all of his competitors in some of these counties. Now perhaps hes trying to position himself to be not just thm three but the story of the night. Ifill to that momentum he has been talking about the past few days, there may be something to that. I think thats right. I think the did he bait, he had a debate that was wellreceived in iowa a couple of days ago. I also think when we look at this map in general, i was expecting to see the Romney Santorum divide, conservatives one way, more moderates another. Suburbans versus urban, these story lines we look at. I have to be honest, looking at the mam right now. I dont see that what i see is pockets that are going for donald trump, some of which are more moderate. Most conservatives are not going with trump. But ted cruz importantly is winning in some moderate areas, especially right around des moines. This might be a new map tor us. How do we explain this very narrow neck and neck between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton so far. It looks like and im gladz we have a map to look at this as well. It looks like when you anticipate the strength of Bernie Sanders, we talked about Higher Education towns, colleges, universities. You look at those. You look at where Iowa State University is. That is a story county. That was a place where you think Bernie Sanders wanted to have a blowout. Is he not having a blowout. He is ahead by a couple of points at this early stage. Is he doing very well up by the university of northern iowa. But again, not as well as he wanted to be doing. I think shes neck and neck with him in his strongest areas. Now is that shall. It is good news for her. Did she get her voters out . Were talking a lot about new voters. Maybe some of these new voters were people the Clinton Campaign identified. Ifill there is a lot of talk about big turnout a cross the state it didnt hurt anybody that that new towrnout could benefit the better organized. Its possible. I dont think well see that to the end of the night. And these results make if look like it could be a long night. We told all these stories about big turnout and so far its not clear if this will be a record turnout or not. But it does look like Hillary Clinton is doing better in some sander stronghold old. Ifill were going to be watching that edge of our seat for the rest of our evening and be back with a special report at 11 p. M. Eastern, thanks so much. Thank you. Ifill curious about how the caucuses actually work . Weve got you covered. Check out our helpful explainer at pbs. Org newshour. Ifill now back to judy in iowa. Woodruff we close out, gwen, with a look at the deep divides that have opened up in the Republican Party in this election, and a fight over core conservative principles. This report is done in collaboration with the atlantic. The great debate thats been going on inside the republican world since 2012 is do we need to change the pizza or do we need to change the pizza box . The Republican Party is driven by very real disagreements that it doesnt actually have a mechanism for solving. As a conservative, why would one support donald trump . Theres just no evidence of any history in belief in conservative principles, of commitment to conservative causes. Whether its trump or cruz or several others, if you hear someone say something, a lot of us will say, well i wouldnt have said that, but im glad somebody said it our party has taken an anger detour that is evident every day when we look at the news and watch the polls. Woodruff david frum, your article in the atlantic is the great republican revolt. So boil it down for us, whos revolting against whom and why . The Republican Party planned a dynastic succession for 2016. One bush would follow smoothly after another bush. Everything was positioned for this jeb bush succession. And instead, the Republican Party got a class war. When you look back at 2012, its Pretty Amazing that the Republican Party nominated a very wealthy republican who had, in massachusetts, done a version of obamacare, as their nominee. In a party that hated obamacare, that was unhappy about republican elites as well as democratic elites. They believed mitt romney was going to win, and when he didnt that was a big shock and surprise. The republican elite had collectively done an analysis of what they believed had gone wrong in 2012. The only thing the party had done wrong was it had not been open enough on immigration. Fix that, and everything would fall into place. That was the theory, that was a plan, and thats why you begin by having right after the 2012 election, a very serious effort, including many Top Republicans like marco rubio, john mccain, to push immigration reform. Of course that dies in the house, because rank and file republicans and conservatives on talk radio actually did not want immigration reform. Woodruff ezra klein, youre the editorinchief on the news and analysis website vox. Is immigration the chief issue you see dividing the party . I think a lot of these issues, trade, immigration, they have a real subtext of economic insecurity. Were in a place right now as a country where the demographic changes that were going through are significant. Not just with immigration but with relative birth rates and other things in recent years. So were just about to hit the point where a majority of infants are minority. Were sort of a majority minority nation, if youre under three years old. That is a profound change for people to live through. And i think its a change that the political system doesnt really know how to talk about. When you ask the question, do you think youll be better off in 10 years than you are today . Do you think your children will have a better life than you . The most pessimistic group in america are whites without a college degree. And the second most pessimistic group in america are whites with a college degree. Woodruff so into this situation steps new york billionaire donald trump. What happens . Donald trump is one of americas great marketing geniuses. And trump has, as great marketers do, an intuitive understanding of what the customer wants. So he saw this opportunity. In the spring of 2015, if you asked republicans, you gave them a straight binary choice, what do you want to do with illegal immigrants, do you want to somehow legalize them, or do you want to deport them. You made the choice that stark. More republicans said deport than legalize. So the great marketer came along and said, i see a niche. I see a niche. Its the bigger niche. And i can have it all to myself. Woodruff bill kristol, youre the editor of the weekly standard, a longtime leading voice among the neo conservatives in this country. You have said that if the republicans nominate donald trump for president , youre ready to support a third party. Is that still your position . It is. I suppose i should leave the door a little bit open, because who knows what the world will look like in june or july if that were to happen, what trump would have said, what positions he would have taken. But at the end of the day, could you trust him to appoint Constitutional Supreme Court judges, could you trust him to be serious about limiting the scope of government . Trump just seems to have no interest in any of that. Trump, unlike a lot of republicans, says hes going to protect medicare, protect social security. That he believes in the government. Hes not here to cut your government programs. What hes here to do is make sure the government is helping you, the downscale economically struggling white voter. And this moneys not going to be going to immigrants who are flooding across a border to take advantage of our generosity. And that, for a particular part of the party, is very appealing. And for other parts of the party, its really noxious. Even now, about 2 3 of republicans find trump unacceptable. He is unpopular with the more affluent, the more educated and the more religious within the Republican Party. And those are the people who usually do tend to prevail in republican contests. A lot of the conventional view is to lump cruz and trump together. But i think cruz and trump are very different. And its not an accident that theyre now fighting a big war. Cruz, people can like him, dislike him, at the end of the day, cruz clerked for the chief justice of the United States. Cruz wants a very conservative form of limited government, constitutionalism and so forth. Its very different from trump. Woodruff what happens to the tea party in all this . We dont hear about the tea party per se. I think trump has done a pretty good job of hijacking, in a way, the tea party impetus. And in my view, in an unhealthy way. That is, i think the tea party believed in constitutional government. It was trying to relimit government. It hated obamacare, it didnt like the bailouts. Woodruff jim demint, youre the former senator from south carolina. Youre the president of the heritage foundation. Some call you the godfather of the tea party movement. How did you get that designation . I finally saw we werent going to change the system with the same people who were there. And i went out across the country and began to try to help primary opponents to republican establishment candidates. And the country rose up in 2010, put a lot of new people in the house and the senate. And there were a lot of complaints by the establishment. Woodruff eric cantor, it was 2014, you were the majority leader of the house, presumed to be the next speaker of the house of representatives. You lost a primary battle to an unknown economics professor, dave brat, a member of the tea party. Now with the passage of time, do you better understand what happened . Certainly there were a lot of factors at work, a real anger out there on the part of a lot of people. Woodruff what do you think is the source of the anger . That real anger out there in the grassroots, when people would go home and thered be layoffs, and wageearners in their 40s and 50s who say, hey wait a minute, what happened to my job . , and then didnt have the skills to go find another job. Members of Congress Going home and seeing that. And saying, hey, somethings broken. And then that compounds itself, which leads some people to say, hey wait a minute, we gotta throw it all out and go to the extreme, because we are in that bad of a situation. In 2010, this wave of tea party sent a whole new group to washington. Nothing happened. 2012, the Republican Party took back, they pushed the tea party out, they tried to run the president ial race with karl rove and other topdown approach. And it was a disaster. But in 2014, the candidates were back out there for the senate and the house campaigning on, okay, were going to do it this time. Give us a majority in the senate. Nothing happened after they got the majority. And so what you see now is people basically saying, the heck with these guys. It doesnt matter what they promise. Theyre not going to do anything. Woodruff you had what happened to eric cantor in 2014. And then last year, the downfall of or the resignation of speaker boehner. Whats been going on in the house of representatives . John boehner, who we used to be friends, but then we worked together in the house he saw conservatives and this idea of limited government as more of an obstacle and a frustration. And he punished conservatives who really tried to push for some fairly simple things. What john boehner found is he couldnt crush the conservatives, but he he made it painful for them. When you hear people say, hey, you arent trying hard enough. You didnt shut the government down. You didnt allow the government to go into default. I mean these are all things that, to me, so counterintuitive. I mean nobody understands what that would really mean if you went into default, and all the people that could potentially get hurt. People say yeah, things are that bad, go ahead and just blow it all up so we can reconstitute it. This is part of the problem for the Republican Party, and particularly for the republican base. They will run elections based on these promises of deep confrontation and tremendous results. And then once in office, they cant deliver on that much, because the american system of government requires a lot of compromise and a lot of consensus for anything to get done. That leads to a cycle of disillusionment within the republican base, because they feel they voted for these politicians, these politicians made clear promises, they didnt deliver on the promises. But one thing that has become, i think, really toxic is the way the base tends to interpret that disappointment, is that the real issue is that the politicians went and got bought by washington. Woodruff do moderates have a place in the Republican Party . The most important kind of moderation thats needed is republicans need to preach respect for the work and institutions of government. The government has to be made to work. The government is, i think all republicans agree, is too expensive. But that doesnt mean that wed be better off without one, or that you want to destroy the traditional agreements and understandings that make the American Government work. Republicans have really stressed those since 2009, and thats been dangerous. So we have to rediscover some respect for the institutions of government. And also accept that in a democracy, you dont get all your way all the time. And its not a failure of the system if you do not win every particular argument. Ifill on the newshour online it may be a long night. You can always get the latest results from iowa on our homepage. And while youre there, check out our election calendar, with upcoming debates and primaries. All that and more is on our web site pbs. Org Newshour Woodruff join us at 11 pm eastern for special live coverage of the caucuses. Im judy woodruff. Ifill and im gwen ifill. For all of us at the pbs newshour, thank you and good night. Major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by bnsf railway. And by the alfred p. Sloan foundation. Supporting science, technology, and improved Economic Performance and Financial Literacy in the 21st century. And with the ongoing support of these institutions this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. And by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. Thank you. Captioning sponsored by newshour productions, llc captioned by Media Access Group at wgbh access. Wgbh. Org this is nightly Business Report with Tyler Mathisen and sue herera. Change at the top. Googles parent alphabet rise above profit report to a new title, worlds most valuable company supplanting apple. Henry iv says uneasy lies ahead that wears the crown. Wild card. Will they change the path of oil prices . Big week. What next few days could answer a key a question for the market. Just how healthy is the American Economy . All that and more tonight on nightly Business Report for monday, february 1st. Good evening. Welcome. Major milestone for googles parent, alphabet