The uk to vote to stay in the European Union, even though polls in recent days have characterized the vote as a coin toss and reports say there are deep divisions throughout the country. As weve reporteds market held captive by the vote moving higher with every poll that favors stay and twitching lower with every one that favors leave. Today the Dow Jones Industrial average closed back above 18,000, gaining 230 points, the nasdaq eed added 76 and the s p 500 rose 27. A final outcome of the referendum wont be known until early tomorrow morning but a new poll out tonight and we have the reporter polls in the uks historic vote on its membership in the European Union close 10 00 p. M. Local time. The vrs first indications coming from polling firm puchlt gov, the poll carried out today of around 5,000 people have not an official exit poll suggesting remain is just ahead. 5248. The same companys last poll was a riding of 5149, suggesting a slight increase in recent days towards the remain camp. A reminder that this is not an official exit poll. Early indications from various reports that turnout is very high. A factor expected to benefit the remain camp. For nightly business report, im Wilford Cross in london. And in Great Britain people are lining up to buy euros and dollars. Selling pounds. Currency Exchange Shop owners say theyve seen a surge in demand for foreign cash ahead of results of the uk referendum. Majority of transfers from the pound sterling in euros. Many experts say the pound could fall as much as 20 in the uk does opt to leave. So what if britain votes to leave the European Union . What impact will there be on the u. S. Stock market . For the long and shortterm, Wells Capital management chief investment strategist is with us. Even though markets indicate perhaps a remain vote at the end of the day, and we did see this 200point rally in the Dow Jones Industrial average, its still a coin toss. We dont know the final results. Whats the impact and how far could we see a slide, perhaps, if the vote goes the other well, certainly, sharon, given reaction of the markets now 20 move all the way back up close to record highs in the United States, theres developed some risk, if for the disappointment, while theres a lot of thought that its going to be a stay vote. If it is a leave vote now youve probably got some risk in most markets across the world. Would not be at all surprising to me if we get a leave vote that the market falls a fair amount. 3 maybe in a day and maybe, you know, 5 , or more percent over the next week here in the United States, and probably even more so closer to double digits in the uk itself. You certainly will have big moves in currencies, youll probably have big drops in sovereign bond yields still considered safe havens. Youll probably have a pop in the u. S. Dollar to some extent as people are rushing to safe havens. Commoditiless probably go lower, emerging markets hit. There could be a big media kneejerk reaction to a leave vote since it looks like its totally unexpected. But i really think longer term, investors will calm down, and over the course of the next few week was even with a leave vote come to the realization that that doesnt even mean its final. It has to still go parliament, could still be backed out, even if Parliament Passes it, could take another two years and anytime in there backed out. I really think that i would look if there is a leave vote, at the carnage that comes here in the next few weeks more of a a buying opportunity for longterm investors, because ultimately even with a leave, i think theres a good possibility down the road we still get a pretty good rally. Just in the past few minutes, jim, one of the leaders of the leave movement, head of the independent party, said he was feeling as though the remain vote was going to prevail. It that happens, whats the outcome over the next weeks and months . Do we just go back to concentrating on the run of the mill ordinar i think thats right. And you know, tyler, i guess what i like about this, if we get by brexit here, which i kind of think we will, i think theres good things going on here. Weve got a very broadbased rally since january. Unlike the one we had last august. Theres broader participation, which tells me more good results are going on in these companies than weve had for a while. We also hurdle or offset with higher bond yields. Normally when stock market goes up, bond yields go up. Here going down while stocky rally. So no check to this rally. Economic surprise indices turning up around the world of late. You mentioned, kind of back this year to finally climbing that perpetual wall of worry. The fear is back. The thing thats made this bull market great. I kind of thing if brexit is over, then were going to go to new record highs here over the next few moss. There we have it. Wells capital management, jim paulson, thanks so much. Good place to leave it. While a leave vote could have widereaching implications for the markets, jim pointed that out, what might it mean for you . H well, for one it could affect morage rates if investors decide to look for safety and plow money into government bonds, yields could fall further and in turn, that might push down mortgage rates. It could temporarily make your Retirement Savings less value about. About half of all of americas fulltime workers participate in their company the 401 k programs which are susceptible to any market swings. With predictions of a drop in the pound, if the brits vote to leave it could make the cost of a vacation in britain more appealing. Meanwhile in our nations capital, the Supreme Court upheld affirmative action at university of texas 5u69en. The justices said the universitys plan to take race into consideration has one factor was constitutional. The Court Decision leaves room for future challenges for racial policies at other schools. The Supreme Court also rule and a case closely watched by the business community. Immigration. Many executives say Immigration Reform would improve Economic Growth and boost productivity employment and the wages. Today a deadlocked Supreme Court dealt president obama a major setback on his controversial policy. Hampton pierson has de reporter in just one sentence the Supreme Court let stand a Lower Court Ruling that blocked president obamas plan to spare roughly 4 million Illegal Immigrants from deportation. Especially those with children who are american citizens and immigrants with no criminal record. At the white house, the president expressed his disappointment. Todays decision is frustrating to those who seek to grow our economy and bring a rationality to our immigration system, and to allow people to come out of the shadows and lift this perpetual cloud on them. Reporter on capitol hill, Republican Leaders said it was another win in their campaign against the president S Immigration policy and what they view as his excessive use of executive authority. This is a win for the constitution. Its a win for congress, and its a win in our fight to restore the separation of powers. Reporter proimmigration advocates point out blocking the Administration Plan to prioritize who getsds departed leaves not just workers in limbo bought their employers as well. Employers are similarly caught in the cross hairs. This is a dysfunction of our system, and the court could have gone a long way today to help american businesses to help all american people. More taxpayers and they failed to do their job. Reporter on monday the high court will hand down the final three decisions of this term. Including a major ruling on abortion that could impact millions of american women. For National Business report, im Hampton Pearson at the supr the ruling on immigration was also the taufk the campaign trail on a day that saw a lot of news out of washington. And john harwood is tracking all of it for us. What was the reaction today from donald trump and Hillary Clinton to t well what you got from trump and republicans was a statement that the court had vindicated their complaints that president obama was overreaching his executive authority with that what you got from president obama, Hillary Clinton and democrats was outrage at the fact that both the policy was blocked, but also at republicans for not confirming the Supreme Court justice president obama has nominated, mark garland who could have broke than tie in the president s favor and one of the things we know, when you lose on policy in a highly emotional case like this, you tend to win on the politics, because the people who get mobilized of the ones aggrieved by the decision. This may be a setback for president obama but something that boosts Hillary Clinton politically. And in another Major Development a number of top Business Leaders endorsed clinton today, and among them, berkshires of warren buffett, sandberg, former dupont, and reed hastings. How influential is this and whats the impact on the campaign . Reporter some were no surprise. Warren buffett already endorsed Hillary Clinton before that. When you have a large number of executives who are on a list who come out and endorse that has some impact. The most significant, though, was jim ciccone, executive with at t he was a senior aide in the first Bush White House and also worked in the reagan white house. He came out and said that Hillary Clinton would do a fine j and th donal would take us down a dark path. Somebody in the own party and speak against him that has more impact. It looked a bit chaotic on the house floor over the past 24 hours. Democrats ended their gun control sitin after about a day. The nra very powerful, wellfunded lobby group. What happens next as the house goes on recess . The house vows tail come back and talk about this july 5th when they return. Speaker ryan came out today and called, again, this move by the democrats a publicity stunt, said they were raising Campaign Money off of it and wants to keep substance in charge in the house of representative, but the democrats did get good news in the senate when failed to kill a potential compromise measure. Narrow hopes of something legislatively moving, not likely but not impossible. John harwood reporting tonight from washington. Thank you. Both president ial candidates have been very outspoken on trade. Donald trump for his plan to build a wall on the Mexican Border and slap huge tariffs on chinese goods. Hillary clinton for her opposition to the transpacific partnership, and both policies could have an economic affect on states across the country. Our report from oakland, ca. Reporter among the places theyll be watching this falls president ial election most closely is here in oakland, california. This is home to the fifth largest u. S. Port. A port thats been fueled by a 20year trend towards liberalizing foreign trade. But that is almost certainly about to change no matter whos elected this fall. Donald trump, of course, has been calling for the wall with mexico, but also threatening stiff tariffs on chinese goods. We dont have free trade. With chine 2345, with china, they dump their product all over the place. Theyre dumping sales and ruining or steel mills. We have leaders that are not smart. In fact, theyre rather stupid. Reporter Hillary Clinton has cooled to free trade as well, turning against the Transpacific Trade Partnership that she once called the gold standard. I just dont think that when you add it all up, it it meets the standards that i set, and i couldnt, you know, look in the eyes of, you know a voter and say, yeah, im convinced this is going to raise your income, because i wasnt. Reporter if that resalts in reduced chad a trade war, some States Affected more than others. The top states, First Washington state, boeing makes its planes. 19 billion worth of goods shipped last year. Behind california, 16 billion and texas at nearlies 12ds billio opponents of the free trade pact say that canalsing them or changing them will bring jobs back to the u. S. , but in the short term, they almost certainly will have an economic affect in places like oakland. Im scott cohen, National Business report, oakland, california. Still ahead, ever get the flu mist nasal vaccine . Guess what . It doesnt work. What Health Officials are rippeding you do now recommending you do now. The popular nasal spray version of the flu vaccine doesnt protect kids the way it was supposed to. In a surprise decision Health Officials are advising doctors now to not use the mist vaccine this year. A reversal from its previous stance. We have more on this change in diagnosis. Reporter it was the only option for flu vaccine that doesnt involve a needle. The flu mist nasal spray made by uk drugmaker as ttrazeneca and accounts for about onethird of vaccines given to kids in the u. S. According to the cdc, provided only 3 of protection against the flu comparing with 63 for the flu shot. Over the last three years weve been hearing that the effectiveness of the naysful spray has been less than has been expected. But i think i was a little surprised that it was as low as the cdc says it is. Reporter manufacturing astrazeneca claims flu mist provide ps 46 to 46 protection. It working with the considered the kr to better understand its data and ensure americans can receive the nasal spray vaccine in future flu seasons. Once we find out why it doesnt work, there can certainly be changes made so that, that form of vaccine will hopefully show equivalent efficacy again. Reporter meantime, astrazeneca expected limited u. S. Demand this year due to the cdc recommendation flu mist not be used. Flu pli mist brings in millions and now plans to write off inventory in the second quarter. Santa faye, clacks glaxmak wh ot manufacturers through the summer to ensure theres no vaccine shortage. But parents and pediatricianless have to brace themselves for a change. The cdc still recommends a flu shot for people age 6 months and up. Knowing that the shot works fairly well and that influenza is a major cause of problems and deaths in this country means its going to be very, very important to really stress the point that Everybody Needs to get an influ eenza vaccine. Reporter i got mine last year and was surprised it didnt more. From health care to Financial Services and the big banks, aced a stress test. Giving passing grades to them and deemed them Strong Enough to weather a severe economic ka as it troer without help from the government. Under a hypothetical scenario, the central bank clated 33 of the largest banks would have loan losses of 385 billion. Meeting the feds definition of good health during a severe recession. Results signal that many banks will win approval next week to increase their dividends. Macys Ceo Terry Lundgren plans to step down and that is where we begin tonights market focus. After 14 years as ceo, lundgren said he would leave that role in the First Quarter of year to take on the position of executive chairman. The retailers current president will succeed lundgren at ceo. Shares of macys up more nan 1. 5 today to finish at 3338. Twillio made a stock market debut. The Cloud CommunicationsCompany Offered 10 million shares at 15 apiece, show shares began trading at 23. 99. A nearly 60 increase above the initial public offering. Shares soared 92 on the day to 28. 79. Blackberry posted a sharp decline in revenue in the latest quarter with results falling short of analysts estimates, despite the miss, the smartphone maker beat profits targets and forecasted a smaller than expected loss for the year. The ceo spoke an the companys next move. Im looking to now open to license my software, my headset software and interfaces to competitors in the making bess side of the equation. Thereby i think margin better, ba Balance Sheets more protect and growth forthcoming. Shares of blackberry rose more than 3 pone 5 to 7 even. Meanwhile, automaker Fiat Chrysler is issuing more recalls. The company is recalling more than 13,000 vehicles in its mazaradi division due to the vehicles confusing gearshifter. Fiat also said stock ware up2k3wr5id fixes are available by the end of the month for jeep models recalled for the same issue. Shares of fiat up nearly 4 to 17. 19. Boeing ramps up air carriers. The aircraftmaker says within 20 years, 38,000 new planes will be needed for the anticipated growth in air transport demand and as a result boeing plans to make nor than 9 hvrn planes in five years. Shares up a percent to 133 dollars, 55 cents. Volkswagen reportedly will pay 10 billion to settle claims from a cheating scandal. The company will pay diesel car owners about 5,000 in some cases as much as ten grand on top of a buyback or repair. New crash tests reduced troubling results. Vehicles that protect drivers in certainly collisions may leave passengers at risk. And at phil lebeau reports, the model getting the roers marks is one of the most popular small suvs. Reporter its a deadly collision that until now had never been replicated in crash tests. The small overlap collision where the front passenger side hits another car or object at 40 miles per hour. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety tested seven maul suvs has will good raitings on the drivers side, but on the passenger side, a different story. Toyotas rav 4 giving a rating of poor by the hhis. Toyota says the test is severe, specialized and goes beyond the federal Vehicle Safety requirements. After the small overlap test was first introduced in 2012, toyota took steps to improve the performance of its vehicle in the test. Rather than waiting to reengineer both the driver and passenger sides, we took immediate steps to enhance performance on the drivers side. Focusing on driver protection during small overlap crashes, xplarns why some suvs did not do as well protecting passengers in a similar collision. But even models with completely symmetrical frond ends produced different results. Something engineerless focus on correcting. This test is just unveiling that theres something new, something that can be made an improvement on in the future but it doesnt necessarily mean that your vehicle that youre currently riding in is not safe. Reporter in 2014, the most recent year with data, more than 1,600 people here in the United States who were riding as passengers in the front seat of a vehicle were killed in crashes. The iihs believes it can lower that number by focusing new crash tests on one of the most common collisions out on the road. Phil lebeau, nightly business report, chicago. To read more about the tests led to our website, nbr. Com. Coming up, big money add big online stars behind the small screen. The online Video Industry is growing and so is the annual gathering of all people who create the videos we watch. Individualcom, as social Media Companies aggressively compete for one thing. Ad colldollars. Julia boorstin is in anaheim. Reporter as many as 30,000 video digital fans head here paying 150 each to see their favorite youtube stars and its exploding, this business. Watching digital video growing at 10. 5 per year. An hour and 8 minutes a day according to emarketer. Peernl are finally realizing this audiences truly relate to the programs and to the talent in them. And as a result of that, advertisers are asking and coming increasingly to say how do we take advantage of that . Reporter youtube, leader in the space projected to grow this year is drawing competition from facebook, snapchat and twitter all trying for a peefs the digital video ad pie pap broad range of brands are here pt sponsors ranging from kia and samsung to covergirl and taco bell with this booth here behind me. These brands hoping to clabber with creators on branded contents and providing companies with plenty of opportunities for selfies. I do appreciate the brand deals and they are coming, because not everyone is paying attention to the internet. Before, like what are they doing . But when you have an audience and influence they come, and as long as theyre good brands, i dont have a problem. Its working for me. Reporter and its working for digital Media Companies including awesomeness tv with star content creators with a social reach of over 600 million people. And it, listen, television not going away today, tomorrow or anytime soon, but are people watching 30 second spots the way they used to . People are watching shows, doesnt mean theyre getting the ads with them. We know when we do a piece of content like rule crush, getting views and super high engagement. Reporter facebook unveiled Facebook Live video platform such as the ability to go live with someone else or schedule a broadcast. This is facebook looking to lure over content creators and the fans and ad dollars they bring. For National Business report im Julia Boorstin in anaheim, california. Going with the green glitter lipstick tomorrow, folks ask. Before we go, another look at wall street. Dow closed back above 18,000 gaining 230 points. Nasdaq added 76 and s p rose 27. Im sharon epperson, thats the National Business report tore today. And im Tyler Mathisen subpoena a great evening, everybody, and we will see you back here to. Anno ncer a kqed television production. Sbrocco and everybody sopa all opa