An opportunity to go home and if the West can't get its act together in Syria how are we going to respond the next time there's a crisis it sounds like a terrifying scenario but a lot so looks like the United States is looking for the exits so looking at it through the lenses of the trumpet ministrations attitude toward Syria if we're getting out of there does it matter if if Assad reasserts itself over 2 thirds of the country and and starts to begin to consolidate power in the rest of it so Assad has already reasserted himself he's done that with the help of Russian and Iranian forces. If we wanted to prevent that from happening the opportunity was several years ago now our focus is really on ISIS and on counterterrorism and on working with the Syrian Kurds who have been the point of the spear working with u.s. Special forces targeting ISIS so we want to contain the ISIS crisis we want to prevent ISIS fighters from escaping the tension. Where when they're held by Syrian by Kurdish forces the only way we can do that is to have a presence in the country so to cut and run and leave our allies in the lurch is not in our interests and also doesn't speak well for the United States because Syria isn't the last place we're going to be engaged in an important international security operation and we want to be able to communicate to our friends and allies that we're reliable Brett same question why does it matter who wins in Syria is it of importance to the United States who wins in Syria well thanks right I think given what happened in Syria over the last really 78 years and with ISIS establishing a caliphate a so-called caliphate I think you have to just remember where we were in the summer 2014 I mean ISIS was. The wealthiest terrorist organization in history it had 8000000 people under a stone main it was committing genocide against Christians use e.t.s.i. Minority religious groups Shia Arabs and others. And it was planning major terrorist attacks in Europe and it's aspired to $911.00 type of events against the United States and it carried out some of those attacks in the streets of Paris at the Brussels Airport over the course of 20152016 of these were attacks were organized in Syria with combat terrorist teams kind of exfiltrate out of Syria into the cities of our of our partner capitals so this was a very significant threat and that's why you know we develop this campaign to claw back of the territory and ensure that ISIS cannot project itself outside of Syria and that was a big success which I'm sure we'll talk about but you hit on a on a larger question too I think. You know presidents any president gets gets himself in trouble when. You declare a you declare objectives that you're not really willing to follow through in a chief and I think. This goes back to really President Obama in August of 2011 saying Assad must go that's a that's a very ambitious objective without really I think thinking through. How is that really going to happen are we really prepared to see something through like that and what would come after Assad So I think that was a that was a mistake and in the in the trumpet ministration you just have this total destroyed in this what what u.s. Policy is in the trunk ministration and what they have declared to Congress and to the world is extremely ambitious that declared policy is that we want to see all Iranian forces leave Syria all of them. That's the objective the stated objective to the world and we want to see Assad either negotiate himself out of power or fundamentally reform through a u.n. Back political process which is really gone nowhere. And we want to see the enduring defeat of ISIS that's the declared objective but the president never states those objectives and actually whenever he talks about Syria says he wants to bring everybody home so you have a total destroyed in this in u.s. Policy and what happens then is actors that do not share our interests whether our side Putin erred on how many in Tehran act in this gap to do things that I think significantly set us back and make it more likely that ISIS or similar terrorist organizations can reestablish themselves so it's a it's a very complex and very difficult situation but it does it does matter to the safety of our country and to our citizenry for the moment the situation looks something like this if I get it wrong please David or Brett. Pointed out Turkey grabbing a kind of cord on Senator Kerry that runs along the Turkish Syrian border and extends some distance still yet to be determined into Syria. The Kurds in some disarray and in flight but in effect falling back into the arms of Assad because they're they're out of allies Russia getting a cheap an easy victory. In concert with Assad and the United States looking for the exit I mean is that fair and if that is the way things look right now. Is that a problem for the United States David it's a problem for the United States in Syria because we've lost our leverage. In other countries when we're called upon to work with allies or non-state actors in a counterterrorism operation who's going to trust the United States to be a reliable partner So what's happening in Syria now is a big problem mostly for the Kurds but also for the u.s. And its credibility. The other important point I think to make here is that. Turkey's heir to one says that the Syrian Kurds represent a threat in Turkey and he wants to have security buffer to prevent them from crossing the border and launching attacks. Syrian Kurds have never attacked positions in Turkey aired ones motivation here is entirely based on domestic political concerns he's trying to shore up his base killing Kurds is an easy way to do that this is not a security challenge for Turkey it's a political challenge for airborne and he's choosing to turn the Kurds into a whipping post in order to prove that he's capable and to rally his domestic support Brett again us a question quite well I think in any complex situation you are doing what we have the term of art not assessment of the overall a situation and in Syria let me just say where we were last fall and I was in the trunk ministration the search for 2 years in the trunk ministration and by last fall Syria still an extraordinary complex but had gotten into a position where you could start to see a way to manage your way out of it and I say that because. The u.s. Had led a fairly sophisticated and I think fairly smart military campaign military and diplomatic campaign against the Islamic state and we did that in a way that accounted for all the very hard lessons learned of the Iraq war the Afghanistan war we did not put in thousands of u.s. Forces u.s. Forces were not engaged in direct combat in the streets and towns of Syria we did what we call it by with and through campaigning and that meant that. We used special forces really at the height about $2500.00 u.s. Forces total in the country to any given time and we built a force of $60000.00 Syrians and it was a Kurdish led force but grew and swelled and I saw this up close because I used to go into Syria every couple months you know with thousands of Arabs and Christians and they just joined our ranks it really snowballed to a force of 60000 Syrians called the Syrian democratic forces and they with our assistance clawed back what used to be the ISIS caliphate and by last fall. Fall of 2018 they pretty much controlled a 3rd of the country and u.s. Forces in very small numbers but very strategically located throughout that 3rd of Syria were able to ensure that it maintained secure safe and secure permissive we were able to deter the Russians or the regime from coming in and if they tried we would act in self-defense and we actually did that a couple times so that kept those guys out of that area it deterred. Or no one's worst emissions which David was just talking about because we were strategically located and doing a lot of diplomatic work with the Turks to address whatever concerns they might have but they were not about to I think cross lines with American flags so things were fairly stable the rest of the country about a 3rd of it was under control of the Assad regime and the Russians and then in the northwest you had a zone that was really controlled by Turkey which was a hornet's nest of extremist groups and al-Qaeda with about 3000000 citizens and innocent people trapped in the middle so that was a real problem North-West we had these kind of 3 zones and it was really set up for some real great power diplomacy u.s. Russia Turkey. Assad regime Iran is a part of that and I think we actually had a window to really do some things that would protect our interests and begin to really wind down the overall civil war. That was kind of thrown out the window when President Trump at the end of last year after a call from anyone tweeted that we're leaving Syria and we're out of there and ISIS is already defeated which it wasn't and that just announced to the world that. We really have no commitment to this and so Putin read into that airline read into that and everyone else read into that and it really. It really diminished the capability of American diplomats to sit at the table with the Russians for example as I used to do with any credibility to really affect the situation and revisit that decision he reportedly cut the force by 50 percent so then you only had a 1000 Americans on the ground that's just not enough given that this is about a 3rd of Syria so the situation kind of started to really degrade and then came to a head on a 2nd hurdle on call here on October 6th in which President Trump basically gave a green light for Turkey and the opposition forces that it supports to come into northeast Syria where we were which was the ISIS caliphate and then you just had this rapid unraveling of the situation so what's really tragic here is that. We had a situation that was you know not bad and good actually manageable and that has just been totally discarded now and. Our position in the northeast which had been stable has just completely unraveled and you have 200000 people displaced you have Turkish backed opposition groups coming into committing more crimes which is really no surprise if you follow this conflict closely and you have the outside regime and the Russians are rapidly filling the vacuum in areas that we have left and that maelstrom. That is the type of environment that extremist groups tend to take advantage of as we are now u.s. Is trying to reconsolidate its positions in a in a very isolated oil reachin So at the bottom of the situation was in. Was in a decent place given how complex it has been given how terrible this the Syrian civil war has been and now I think it is. It is much more difficult for the United States to really influence things and I think ISIS and other extremist groups will try to take advantage of this and then you of course have the humanitarian crisis which is ongoing as we speak and the situation was in a decent position because the u.s. Had successfully created the Syrian democratic forces brought So there were 60000 of them they essentially served as our boots on the ground we gave them air support provided weapons but they did the fighting against ISIS in places like Rocca. And elsewhere 11000 has t.f. Members died fighting had America's b. Has to gain sizes more than 20000 were seriously injured. All told there were 11 u.s. Casualties so we talk about getting to a good place we did that with the blood of our Kurdish allies to suddenly ask them to dismantle their defenses and then pull the plug on our cooperation and give everyone a green light to come in is a huge b. Trail of the Kurds and other northerners and it sends a signal in Syria that we're marginalized and it signals to others around the world that the u.s. Isn't prepared to walk the talk and if the u.s. Doesn't do it that space gets filled with bad actors and we see that happening in Syria now including the Free Syrian Army herder ones proxy jihadi fighters who are been in northern Syria committing war crimes executing Kurdish politicians using phosphorus and napalm So we have a pretty sordid situation in northern Syria now the u.s. Has already packed its bags and is moving to dairies who are across the border to Iraq the Syrian Kurds are left behind and they have to fend for themselves without u.s. Protection and they've reached out to the regime in Damascus trying to make a deal with Russia but the reality is they are left to the mercy of air to one there is now increasing evidence mounting that Turkey and the Jihadi Zen ISIS in Syria have been cooperating by God he was in a safe house. 2 miles from the Turkish border there was a tunnel under his home it was destroyed but the tunnel lead to Turkey or to a Turkish airbase there's now a long history well documented of Turkey providing money weapons logistical support to high sense. And because of Turkey's role sponsoring terrorism it's casts a long shadow on the us Turkey relationship on Turkey's suitability as a NATO member so right now we're really at a crossroads us has some serious thinking to do instead of trying to placate our adversaries and I would put Turkey in that category we should be working more closely with our allies the Kurds have sacrificed for us we shouldn't just leave them twisting in the breeze let me follow up on the Kurds because both you and Brant have talked about the stable situation before the Turkish incursion and that how that situation was achieved by Kurdish fighters with American help what were they fighting for so Barzani and the Iraqi Kurds as well as the Syrian Kurds who are fighting against ISIS. We promise to help them with that we also pledged support to their experiment and democratic self-government. The one Iraq policy. That Bret was deeply involved in and set up selling the Kurds of Iraq out that had a referendum on independence 93 percent voted to separate from Iraq we didn't support them. Likewise in Syria you know the Kurds have developed a region which they called Roge oveh it's a model for grassroots democracy for women's empowerment for Ecology and environment. It's a model that could be replicated in other parts of Syria and the idea of devolving power from Damascus to the region is something that in Geneva now the u.n. Special envoy is talking about with a constitutional committee. So that model was proving a fact of in northeast Syria with the Syrian Kurds and by withdrawing our security and protection from them we've essentially taken that model which could have been used to drain the swamp of support for extremism and we've ruined we spoiled it and we've also spoiled important relationships with our friends and allies they don't know what to expect from a trumpet ministration they should learn a very hard lesson that Washington can be counted on during these years I thought I would just unpack a little bit focus on the serious side just kind of how this came about and you ask the question what they're fighting for such as a tell you kind of how we how we got into this so when we began the campaign against ISIS in Iraq we had the Iraqi security forces which we had known and worked with and the Iraqi customer guys so we kind of had some traction in Syria. We had no real infantry force and we invested hundreds of millions of dollars in an awful lot of time in elements of. You know what David referred to as the Free Syrian Army and it just turned out to be both militarily ineffective and also so those groups were so marbled with extremist elements that our military was very uncomfortable partnering partnering with them in any way so by the fall of 2014 and onwards it was looking like we had no real ground force in Syria and therefore no way to defeat the ISIS caliphate from which these major threats were emerging so. What happened was Isis launched a major attack with thousands of fighters to take a town of call Bani which is a predominately Kurdish almost understand Kurdish town on the right near the Turkish border just south of Turkey and it looked like they were about to overrun the Kurds who are meeting in that town and it was the Iraqi Kurds because of that we have. Longstanding relationships and I got a call from a friend of mine and also they were in contact with our military people we kind of all worked on this together and it was the Iraqi Kurds who said hey we know some of the Kurds in call Bani who are trying to fend off ISIS they think if you the United States could air drop them some weapons and ammunition that they might be able to hold them off with some air support so we looked at this very closely and President Obama made the decision to do that and that's a pretty bold decision because because it looks like it wouldn't work it looks like even with that these guys are going to overrun. But with the air drop of weapons I don't want to Akara actually with General Allen we met with the most senior levels of the Turkish government. To bring Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga also into Bonnie we supplied the Kabbani battle through southeast Turkey which is quite extraordinary and that battle went on for some months and actually was a major turning point against ISIS because it was the 1st really named battle that they lost and after that we were then able to go into Syria with these very brave Kurdish fighters and from there a kind of build this overall umbrella force of the Syrian democratic forces which again grew to about 60000 fighters Kurds Arabs Christians and kind of the rest of history but it really began with that battle of Kamandi and the relations between the Iraqi Kurds and the Kurds who were in company. And then I think some for the for 2 of us. A decision making from the u.s. Government side and to President Obama and that's how we did it but what were they fighting for at 1st they were defending their hometowns against a massive onslaught against ISIS. And slowly but surely. They broke out of there and because the force grew with the ranks of Arabs coming into the ranks you know they went down all the way down to Iraq a suffering thousands of casualties on the Syrian Kurdish side I've been involved in this from the beginning I never heard them say they wanted an independent state they wanted to be a part of a unified Syria but with as David says some decentralization some autonomy. And they ultimately would need a deal they knew with Damascus and the Assad regime and so. This is something that we had a debate about the u.s. Government should they be engaged with Damascus to kind of negotiate their political future I think that would have been wise because that's really the only way forward because the Syrian Kurds are not part of the Geneva process under the un for a host of reasons in any event that didn't happen and therefore when the plug was pulled on October 6th they were really left totally exposed without any arrangements with the Russians or Damascus or anything as we totally pulled back so I think now there is a just a group they are really a great risk now in these areas like a Bonnie which are 100 percent Kurd we are no longer there and they are really controlled now by by Putin and the Assad regime and at this extraordinary moment my final point. After President Truman had the call with fateful call Heard on and we pulled out. Air to want to Putin step down in Sochi and just the pictures of this meeting extraordinary So you're looking at something from 1920 with a map of Syria and they literally carved up all the territories that we had just abandoned. And so Putin era one have now carved up all of these zones and the people in those areas are totally dependent now upon those 2 leaders whereas u.s. Forces in very small numbers have been very strategically located in these areas to keep things stable and peaceful so it's a tragic it's a very tragic turn of events here over the last month let me jump in there because I'm wondering what Russia gets out of this and we can also talk about what Turkey gets out of this because after all these years of war in Syria much of the working capital of the country is in ruins much of what had been productive coherent cities with water works and electricity distribution grids and road networks are in ruin as well much of the population of the country is outside the borders much of the rest of the population of the country is internally displaced that is forced from the homes in the towns they've called home before so America is in some sort of strategic retreat the region is fluid the Russians are asserting themselves the Turks are asserting themselves I suds retaking control of the last territory what do they get at the end of the day have put in is able to consolidate his influence in Damascus he Russia and Syria have signed long term leases for Russian bases in Tartous and Lattakia Russia wants a warm water port in the Mediterranean so superficially That's what Russia gets but more importantly what Putin gets is to be the big boy on the block he successfully you merely aid of the United States he's put a hot poker in our eye showing that Russia is an alternative. To the u.s. In the Middle East and it's more reliable not only in Syria but also to the Gulf states so he's looking to replace American influence in that part of the world and he's successfully done that Russia is now the broker between all of the other key parties in Syria. Iran gets its strategic objective which is a corridor through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. For the supply of missiles and other sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah and to Hamas Assad is able to claim sovereignty over his territory he's killed more than a half a 1000000 of his own citizens and displaced 13000000 in the process but he is essentially the winner of Syria's civil war and he remains in power and there's no forseeable way to get rid of him so they are all winners to some degree the big losers here United States and its Kurdish allies. Whether or not Trump acknowledges that the perception of the u.s. Worldwide is that we're a paper tiger that we don't stand behind our allies. And that's significantly diminished America's reputation in the Middle East and worldwide the ISIS phenomena isn't going away. Trump was quick to claim a victory but it was a victory over the Cala Fed which was destroyed thanks to our Syrian Kurdish fighters ISIS as an ideology and as a movement is far from destroyed and in fact it's resurgent now so we're likely to see other ISIS related security threats. And the Kurds who have sacrificed so mightily against ISIS and in service of u.s. Interests find themselves abandoned and alone there's a Kurdish adage that the Kurds have no friend but the mountains and because of the conduct of the United States we've affirmed that adage to be correct the Kurds are just shaking their heads they thought there was an understanding with the us that understanding proved to be worthless So the Kurds now are alone in the mountains without an ally and without a protector they're going to try to find anyone who will uphold their interests because the United States has shown that it will not we've been hearing from Brett McGurk and David Philips on the crisis in Syria after the break join us for the 2nd half of the conversation. 'd 'd You're listening to world affairs the weekly broadcast of the World Affairs Council it's produced in association with k.q.e.d. Public Radio and the Aspen Institute I'm Jane Wales your host we're hearing from Brett McGurk of Stanford University he's the former special presidential envoy for the global coalition to defeat ISIS joining him is David Phillips director of peace building or rights at Columbia University he's the former senior advisor to the u.s. Department of State moderating the program is my co-host Ray Suarez to his this program or any other world affairs program you can download our podcast from our i Tunes channel or ever you get your podcast search for world affairs that's one word and now back to our program Brett if you're listening to this conversation in Jacksonville Florida or Des Moines Iowa Eugene Oregon what's the what's the bottom line a single. What does this have to do with me and my life and whether I think America is operating properly not only at home and in the world that our regular Americans going to buy into the fact that the that treasure and occasionally American blood has to be shed for Syria the objective here and why we're going into Syria was Isis and I think that's important to remember because ISIS was a significant threat to Americans you know when ISIS controlled rocka. A terrorist named jihadi John. He said in an apartment building with hundreds of people on his computer trying to inspire Americans to kill other Americans under the name of ISIS this is what they were doing and they were planning major terrorist attacks that is why is a matters to the security of the United States of America and to American citizens and that is why we went into Syria Ok that is critical and by leaving in such a shambolic way. It just dramatically increases the risk of a reconstitution of ISIS that's the fundamental point on the geo strategic points it's just far more complicated and I hear a lot that well geez you know Russia now is going to be in Syria and Iran is in Syria look I think we have to be honest during the Cold War. Syria was an ally of Russia. In the Iran Iraq war Syria supported Iran not Iraq so those things go back a long time and if someone believes that the United States should extend blood and treasure somehow to. You know wipe all the Iranians out of Syria or to get Russia out of Syria I don't think the American people would be willing to pay that bill so that's a very different proposition and that's why I think the assumption early in the war that. From any of our partners and allies that they could support an insurgency that would basically lead to the fall of the Assad regime I think was a false assumption because it it failed to account for the fact that Iran would come in in force and Russia would likely come in in force and then the question the onus is on the United States are we prepared to go to war with Russia over Syria so those geo strategic points are are important but we went into Syria for ISIS because ISIS was a threat to us and by defeating ISIS we had. A stablish this very stable. One 3rd of the country and it was an extraordinary environment because Americans could operate freely in these cities and towns with broad support of the population something I saw with my own eyes a number of times and that that was important because it was the ISIS caliphate it was keeping Americans safe and it also gave us the corollary benefit of being able to act with some leverage to resolve the underlying problems of the Syrian civil war but for why this matters for Americans listening it is ISIS and I think it's important to recall what was happening there not very long ago and if you just declare mission accomplished and you just completely simply totally withdraw in a totally unplanned manner as has happened over the last month. The risk of a reconstitution of these ISIS networks is very high and so that is why that is why I think this matters and that is why I think most Americans should be concerned about it because it is fundamentally about the security of our own citizenry but if the place is now in the day to day control of armies room Russia and Turkey and Assad supporting forces don't they all also see ISIS as an enemy some of those countries do but Turkey in particular has been a sponsor of ISIS so its Free Syrian Army has been committing atrocities they've been targeting women they've been mutilating the bodies of female Kurdish fighters so one of the things that we really have to be steely eyed and crystal clear about is that vote is a NATO ally from the beginning from when Assad used chemical weapons and Guten September 23rd tienen we drew a red line and didn't enforce it Turkey has been an active sponsor of ISIS. And it's provided weapons and money and logistics wounded warriors have ended up in Turkish hospitals so I think the security argument is important and I would agree with most everything Brad has just said but Americans also stand for values for freedom and democracy and human rights and if Americans are called on to sacrifice for those values I think they rise to the call if we're just pitching a security argument I think it falls flat so we should make clear that we're there not only to defend against a research in ISIS but also to use northern Syria where the Kurds had self-government as a launching point for democratic self-government and human rights ideals that's appealing to the American public instead of abstract arguments about ISIS and defeating terrorist groups but at the same time if we can text to allies this in a State Department and Department of Defense and in an Oval Office where those things are not necessarily. Quite the motivating factors that you're talking about the president just in the last several weeks has talked about well the Kurds were in it for themselves they didn't they weren't with us at Normandy they didn't help us win World War 2 They were only fighting for their homeland he's giving a view of the Kurds as self interested and our interest the interest of the United States in the view of the president was to get out of there or not be in there forever if you take the argument you just made David do those things really matter that much is that a winning argument if you're trying to convince this president of changing direction it's not a winning argument if you're trying to convince Donald Trump that we should stay in Syria because we believe in freedom and rights it is a winning argument in my view with the American people who have sacrificed on the beaches of Normandy and in other wars an order to extend freedoms around the world what we've missed in this whole discussion is an appeal to a broader set of ideals and I believe in from my travels around the country that the American people respond to that I don't think either the previous administration is certainly not the current one has made an effective pitch that we represent something to people that are struggling around the world and we need to provide protection and support if we do and we have local partners we don't need to stay there forever our local partners will safeguard our interests and that's why it's critical that we work effectively with the Kurds and why there is such a cost to abandoning them because other local partners whom will recruit in different settings now have a red flag they're going to ask important questions about whether the United States is reliable and when they cast around looking for other partners and Russia offers itself as a more reliable strategic partner and. Many of those friends of the United States are going to think twice about whether or not they want to get in the boat with us Do you agree well 1st President Trump you know with all due respect to the president states he's not telling the truth so. When he says we're getting out of Syria and we're coming home because we shouldn't be involved in the Middle East that's an appealing argument in his political rallies but the facts don't add up since May of this year alone at a truck demonstration sent has sent 14000 American servicemen and women to the Middle East 14000 are there now that weren't there before and that is largely because of the increasing tension with Iran. So even if he pulled out all the 1000 forces from Syria which now is not doing he sent 14 times that amount to the Middle East so when he says we want to come home ocean be involved over there that's totally contrary to. The way his administration is acting sec and this you know gets to David's point. And I was involved in this from the beginning. And it's very complex but if you want to. If we have to go fight. Terrorist Entities that are a significant threat to United States. There's 2 ways to do it we can go and with American thousands of American forces or you can build local forces to do it the latter is harder it's more complex it takes more time. But it is awesome ultimately more effective more cost effective and more sustainable and what we had in northeast Syria was with just a couple $1000.00 Americans on the ground that's it and these are special forces these are not you know these are the guys that rotate in every 90 days and if they're not in Syria they'll be somewhere else or they'll be training. So and we built a force of $60000.00 Syrians which suffered $11000.00 casualties we took Rocca the headquarters of ISIS without losing a single American life so we had developed a model that was cost effective and sustainable and President Truman just completely unraveled it and at the same time when he didn't basically trashes the people who did the fighting in the dying and calls and then to migrate from their traditional homelands to an oil region in the middle of the desert he clearly doesn't know what he's talking about and he doesn't know the impact of his words the impact of his words to these millions of people who live in these areas and his impact of his words to the larger. To the larger world so to Americans listening to this there's really 2 points he's not telling the truth we're not going to the Middle East he's sending more forces to the Middle East in significant numbers at significant cost and even in Syria now we're sending mechanized forces into Syria to protect oil fields again I was involved in some beginning we never sent mechanized forces into Syria mechanized forces are more expensive to sustain they take more manpower to make sure that they can be supplied so it seems like he's going to be spending more money in Syria with more personnel in Syria than before and this is just totally ill thought through. And we have to do something like this again because we basically totally abandon a partner it'll be much more costly for the United States so I think the consequences here quite profound both the geostrategic level for the you know people work on foreign policy all the time but also just the individual sense of what this means for the United States yes Putin has won some sort of victory that we've discussed but he also now has this on his balance sheet that he has to. Has some responsibility for keeping a regime in power that cannot support its own people I'm I'm just trying to sort out for myself and for the listeners what the consequences of owning Syria are now now if if the United States is getting out if other powers of asserted themselves in that part of the world if there is sort of new management and some of the old management it's hard to figure out well what happens now to the millions and millions of Syrians including many who are on Turkish soil let me remind us about Collin Powell as Pottery Barn rule he said if you break it you own it right now the responsibility for stabilizing and rebuilding Syria is going to rest with Russia. And it's going to rest with Turkey. In Geneva right now Syrians are meeting to talk about a constitution and opening the door to a political process until that process had Vance's we should make very clear that there's no aid or reconstruction money going to Syria there needs to be benchmarks for its performance and when money does go to Syria for the return of those displaced there should be some international monitoring to make sure that that money isn't stolen by these governments that had become major stakeholders. Syria needs to be judged by what it does not by what it says And right now the record is pretty poor so let's see what comes out of the meeting in Geneva. Russia and Turkey are going to be responsible for zones under their control. As far as I'm concerned they've broken it they own it they should pay for it and not only pay for the material costs but pay for the political costs of disrepute that they've earned through their aggression and their complicity with genocide Brett I mean on Geneva nothing's going to come out of Geneva and to say you know we should do this and we should do that we're pretty much now. In the Middle East if you're not at the table you're on the table that's basically what's happened here over the last from the moment Trump said in December we're we're leaving and the Russians and the and the Turks and the Iranians have kind of car things up and made their own plans so our ability to influence this and any sort of meaningful way I think we just have to be very realistic I mean sure you could make the argument that real Russia now has to deal with this very fractured and shattered States. But they're not spending much money there to begin with so I don't I don't think it will be that much of a burden the risk here is that there is not a state capacity to. To ensure that back use not develop in the areas from which we have not received it which were the traditional ISIS areas and as vacuums opened up ISIS reconstitutes then that is the significant risk and then therefore we will then face a very difficult decision of what to do. You know we will not control much of the airspace we want to have the access we used to have so what do we do when threats really reemerge is it really good for United States to be dependent upon Russia and Turkey and the Assad regime to take care of those threats for us I think the answer is no so I think the situation going forward as America United States has very limited options we have to be realistic and one mistake I see trying to make all the time is he thinks he can make these a very ill advised ill thought through decisions he's major consequential national security decisions decisions of war and peace decisions of American personnel in harm's way. And how you get out of a war is just as important more important how you get in and what he's done since October 6th has dramatically limited our options to. Advance and protect American interests is there a gap between what Trump thinks he's up to and what he thinks he's accomplished and that of permanent civil servants senior serving officers in the military and so on is Trump at odds with his own government Bret where you get this incoherence in the trumpet ministration is I mean I've described it this way that you have maximalist policies for a very minimalist president. So we're talking about Syria and the the the declared policy of the United States of America in Syria even after October 6 us officials have briefed publicly all of our objectives remain the same even though we're pulling out the objectives being again we want Iran to leave Syria we want Assad to fundamental reform itself through Geneva and we want the enduring defeat of ISIS. Trump never took away so's objectives he just says he wants to leave so there's this massive disconnect between between the declared objectives and what the president the United States is prepared to do so I think the answer the answer to that is yes look I would say we really do have 2 fundamental national security objectives in Syria right now at this stage it's given that things have so unraveled and kind of in the maelstrom here a number one as ISIS We want to make sure ISIS cannot reconstitute that means we have to maintain a presence and in Iraq which is also very fragile right now and try to maintain relationships with the s.d.f. As best we can be very difficult I'm 2nd on Iran you want to try to make sure that Iran cannot. Basically build up an infrastructure in Syria that can be a threat to Israel because that's something that. Elements of the Iranian regime want to do. And we can work with the Israelis and others to try to mitigate their ability to do that beyond that in Syria at this stage it's very hard to see what the United States can realistically achieve I mean speak to your question more directly u.s. Forces on the ground work hand in glove with Syrian Kurds with the Syrian democratic forces when Trump had his call with their dough on the 6th of October and announced that we would be withdrawing and giving a green light for Turkey to come in u.s. Personnel were just sickened by that because they knew that our departure would create an outcome whereby our friends and allies would be slaughtered and across the civil service and in the military Americans that were shaking their heads because they were close to the Syrian Kurds and felt that Bonds had been built and they would be so easily broken by Trump's withdraw so I think except for the one person in Washington who's And you nearing this policy and maybe a small circle of people around him career people in the Foreign Service and career people in the military look at what's happened in Syria with disgust they think it's obscene it's not something that America should do and honorable American Foreign Service officers and people in the military feel dishonored and stained by the course of events that Trump is engineered David. President Trump may be in office for another year and a half or another 5 and a half years. As players in that region look at their possibilities and look down the road does Trump's presence or non-presence. Play a role in how they play their hand these various entities Iran ISIS Russia Turkey. Does how they handle themselves over the next year and a half or 5 and a half years. Change as they figure out what's going on in Washington so I think some of those entities are waiting for the next election and if they need to make a strategic course adjustment they well if they're going to be dealing with the trumpet ministration for another 5 and a half years that's going to require a radical rethink of their approach in the region to one another and to the United States. If the u.s. Is going to regain its reputation worldwide. We need to start thinking about strengthening democracy here at home about truth telling when it comes to. Testimony. And subpoenas that aren't ignored but are responded to we just can't talk about elections and democracy we have to walk the talk otherwise what we say to other countries will ring hollow. So now is a critical moment for the Trump administration and the American people to step up to prove that we stand for something and that our word is meaningful if we don't do that and then we have another 2nd trump administration the amount of damage that can be done to u.s. Interests not only strategic but reputational interests will be enormous and I'm not sure that we can recover from that if we can it will be a generational endeavor David can the Kurds hang on for another year and a half and wait and see what happens in the next administration so the Kurds are a close knit community they're good fighters they're not going to just disappear they're facing an army from Turkey which is well equipped with f. 16 s from the United States and other sophisticated weaponry so if we're going to answer that question soley by looking at battlefield capabilities it's going to be hard for them to hang on. But the Kurds are connected by their values by their sense of community. That's not going to disappear even if hundreds or thousands more Kurds are killed and Turkey commits more atrocities and that will bring the Kurdish community closer together and I suspect that Kurds will withdraw they'll regroup they'll try to minimize their damage to their forces but we haven't seen the last of them in Syria or Iraq if Iraq is falling apart the Iraqi Kurds still have their independence referendum in their hip pocket. If Syria. Evolves into some kind of federal or countryside or all state the Kurds will occupy a territory and they'll reach for self-government So the Kurds are resilient they suffered terrible losses and will suffer more losses still but they're not going away they'll fight for their rights and when they retreat to the mountains they'll find they're a broader Kurdish community and together they'll work to try to protect their interests and recover what they have lost so I was in the Middle East when a lot of this is going down so there's a split screen moment of Americans an incredible scenes that are will be etched in people's minds for the rest of their lives of Americans. Abandoning their bases and the Russians immediately taking. Taking over those facilities which the Russians use for full propaganda value of Americans leaving the elite in the fridge leaving bases that we've been in for 4 years and having to blow them up as we left not because the Russians are outside the gates but because Turkish backed opposition forces are outside the gates we don't trust at all Americans driving out of these areas where we had been welcomed and embraced by population for 4 years with potatoes and tomatoes being thrown in our trucks this is a disaster and the split screen was that Putin was on a state visit throughout the Middle East to Saudi Arabia u.a.e. And some other countries at the same time and so the consequences within that part of the world I think will be quite profound and will be very difficult to overcome and on the s.d.f. And the Kurds we have to be very honest we have left. Or Bonnie in these traditional Kurdish areas we're gone. Our ability to do anything to influence the outcome in those areas. Is foreclosed and so they are they are quite vulnerable now they are under protection of Russia and the Assad regime who promised to keep the Turkish back forces out but we'll see if that lasts and so I think we have an obligation as a country here. Particularly the Congress to you know grant some refuge to these folks who worked with us and fought with us who might want to come here and I think that would be very important and what is particularly troubling you talked about American values at the same time we just have completely betrayed this force that suffered so greatly fighting alongside our our men and women in uniform. We've also basically shut the door to to refugees who want to come here and find refuge so I'm hoping that. I was an up on the Hill not long ago and there was some but mentum towards this that you know Congress can compel the administration to grant under refugee status. People who worked with us and I would I would hope that would be in the numbers of the thousands at least because. Around the same number that suffered and died so that is something that Congress can do and I hope they do that at least send a signal that the United States as a country separate from President Trump we do stand up for the people who work with us so closely and suffer so greatly. And I hope I'm very much hoping Congress can take that up so we support what Bret is suggesting but it occurs at a time when the u.s. Is dramatically reducing the number of refugees it allows into the country the likelihood that we're going to give a pass to Syrian Kurds who fall with us so they can resettle United States is pretty close to nil. We need to find other ways of protecting and promoting their interests if we can bring more to the United States. Groups like the International Rescue Committee and others will be all for us. But we have to be realistic. During the Kurdish civil war in the 1990 s. We brought thousands of Kurds to Guam and then integrated them in the mainland USA I don't see that happening now and if Kurds are being slaughtered and those images are being shared with the American public. There's going to be some deep regret about the course of events and some serious 2nd guessing about what Trump did and the way that we withdrew and without a strategy and without a deliberate approach David thanks a lot good to talk to you Thank you Brett great to have you back with us thanks so much right thank you. You've been listening to world affairs the weekly broadcast of the World Affairs Council Ours is a nonprofit membership organization we're dedicated to engage in the public and conversations that matter is it us at world affairs dot org this program featured Brett McGurk from Stanford University he's the former special presidential envoy for the global coalition to defeat ISIS he was joined by David Phillips of Columbia University he's the former senior advisor to the u.s. Department of State the program was moderated by my co-host Ray Suarez world affairs is produced in association with k.q.e.d. Public Radio and the Aspen Institute our technical supervisor is Jim Bennett our producer is Jared sports and our executive producer is Laura Beatty I'm Jane Wales thank you for joining us. Support for k.q.e.d. 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The time to government protests continue Chile's president speaks out this is that he's heard from the b.b.c. World Service on it cray she. Is the us starts the process of pulling out of the.